MLB 2021 Season Thread

[JPhillips]

Let's go.

How bad has the NL Central gotten this year?

As of today the Reds, a team that finished third in 2020, has lost a Cy Young #1 pitcher, a #4 pitcher, a closer, a starting SS, and a #2 catcher, with no notable FA signings or AAA promotions, were made the favorites to win the division.

[lungs]

Don’t count out the Brewers! Yesterday they made a big splash, signing the player with the second highest ZiPS projection for NL Central acquisitions this winter. That player? Jace Peterson. Signed to a minor league contract.

[sterlingice]

Oh, Mets

NY Mets GM Jared Porter acknowledges sending explicit images to female reporter when he worked for Chicago Cubs

And they were having such a good offseason.

Also, I can't believe we have to keep saying this but 1) Don't take pictures of your junk and 2) Definitely don't send them unless explicitly asked for. I mean, this isn't difficult.

SI

[molson]

You go from intern to GM in 16 years and you throw it all away because you're a huge creep.

It's hard to grasp the mindset of someone who does this. They must believe, correctly or incorrectly, that everybody else does it so it's no big deal. And, there must be a gradual self-grooming kind of process where you victimize women in escalating ways for years without consequence until it just becomes a part of who you are. To where you don't even recognize the risk to your career, because it's just something you're compelled to do.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Oh, Mets

Doesn't matter got Lindor.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by molson

You go from intern to GM in 16 years and you throw it all away because you're a huge creep.

It's hard to grasp the mindset of someone who does this. They must believe, correctly or incorrectly, that everybody else does it so it's no big deal. And, there must be a gradual self-grooming kind of process where you victimize women in escalating ways for years without consequence until it just becomes a part of who you are. To where you don't even recognize the risk to your career, because it's just something you're compelled to do.

The mindset is something like "my dick is irresistible". It's not one that normal people can relate to.

[PilotMan]

They do it for the same reasons that abusers abuse, and assulters assault. Because they can, and they can get away with it, and it works for them. How long did Weinstein manage to exist with his behavior being an open secret? It's so common on insta that it's a joke.

[Atocep]

No one voted into the Hall of Fame and Curt Schilling follows up with the most Curt Schilling statement he could have made:

"I will not participate in the final year of voting. I am requesting to be removed from the ballot. I'll defer to the veterans committee and men whose opinions actually matter and who are in a position to actually judge a player," Schilling wrote. "I don't think I'm a hall of famer as I've often stated but if former players think I am then I'll accept that with honor."

[tarcone]

To continue with the NL Central, the Cardinals have done nothing except cry they lost a bunch of money.


Our OF is going to be a sight to see. It will be pretty good or really bad.

Edmon moves to 2nd and Carpenter, who cant throw or field that well stays at 3rd.

Hoping our rookie catcher brings something to the team.

And who knows how the pitching staff will be, especially without Yadi.

[PilotMan]

The Dodgers signing Treinan to a 2+1t was the best 'no brainer' decision they have done so far.

[Atocep]

I've been having fun going through ZIPs projections and comps. Some of the ones that caught my eye:

Jake deGrom - Bob Gibson
Mike Trout - Mickey Mantle
Corey Seager - Arky Vaughan
Jared Kelenic - Felix Pie
Edwin Diaz - Mark Wohlers
Adley Rutschman - Mickey Tettleton
Ronald Acuna - Jose Canseco
Clayton Kershaw - Warren Spahn
Tatis Jr. - ARod
Juan Soto - Ted Williams

[JPhillips]

The entire NL Central has spent less than 5mil combined on free agents this off-season.

[Butter]

What happens when 5 teams try to rebuild at once?

[PilotMan]

The Reds have a chance for a pennant? Their only chance, maybe?

[BishopMVP]

As much as I hate his political views, I'm kind of with him here. The BBWAA model is clearly outdated at this point, and seeing Schilling move up the board year after year while Bonds & Clemens stay at 60% & people talk about the morality clause is a joke.

There are rare cases (Larry Walker) where a public case can be made & voters minds can be changed, but there are multiple no doubt Hall of Fame players failing to get in because X% of writers won't let them, why go through this charade so long?

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Butter

What happens when 5 teams try to rebuild at once?

Join the JBL and find out!

[Lathum]

The Pirates have a total of $3 million in financial commitments beyond the 2021 season -- in the form of an option buyout with Gregory Polanco. https://t.co/EBKSdpDjoZ

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 27, 2021

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

As much as I hate his political views, I'm kind of with him here. The BBWAA model is clearly outdated at this point, and seeing Schilling move up the board year after year while Bonds & Clemens stay at 60% & people talk about the morality clause is a joke.

It really is getting old with Bonds and Clemens. How many HOF players in the 70's took greenies, often openly available in bowls in the clubhouse? Hell, how many HOF ballplayers (looking at you Babe) drank liquor during the 20's when it was illegal? Isn't that technically immoral?

They both need to be in and Schilling is a player that is in Walkers stratosphere IMO, though his unhinged rants have assuredly turned off some voters. If PEDS did anything it helped keep these guys on the field, just like speed did in the 70's for players and that is the biggest impact. Bonds could lace the ball before them and Clemens through smoke before them and I have a feeling that if either were liked by the media a bit more, some would not be clinging so hard to that morality clause.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The Pirates have a total of $3 million in financial commitments beyond the 2021 season -- in the form of an option buyout with Gregory Polanco. https://t.co/EBKSdpDjoZ

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 27, 2021

And here is something else, Nutting needs to sell that team to someone who cares. Pittsburgh is a sports loving city, PNC is a beautiful park in a great setting. If they had a decent owner who spent, fans would come and they would be just fine.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The Pirates have a total of $3 million in financial commitments beyond the 2021 season -- in the form of an option buyout with Gregory Polanco. https://t.co/EBKSdpDjoZ

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) January 27, 2021

On the bright side, at least it seems like we have a direction with a full teardown and rebuild. The strategy of trying to crack 85ish wins and be in contention for a playoff spot by the end of the year was frustrating. Pirates have gotten 11 players back for Taillon, Musgrove, and Josh Bell and probably only 3 of them (all marginal pitchers that are 26 and under) will be up this or next year.

To be fair, the Pirates have had a combination of horrible luck to go along with (what I think was a poor decision) not choosing to go all in and acquire a missing piece or two in the years they were competitive. Jung Ho Kang looked like he was going to be a star after his first two years and then got his leg blown up and in legal trouble, essentially having two full years off of baseball and his athleticism destroyed. Jameson Taillon (taken #2 overall in 2010, between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado) was off to a tremendous start to his career, had to have Tommy John surgery right before being called up, got cancer right after being called up, put up a 4.9 WAR in his only full season at age 26, then had to have Tommy John again 7 starts in to the next season (and missed all of that and last season). And then Felipe Vazquez, who had turned into a three pitch, left handed, shutdown closer between ages 25-27 AND signed a super team friendly, long term deal, gets caught raping a minor, ending his career. Vazquez was very nearly traded to the Dodgers for what would have likely been a nice package, right before that, too. And then there is the whole Chris Archer debacle, which is a combination of bad decision making and bad luck (two major injuries).

Next 2 years are going to be rough, but at least there is some hope. We have the #1 overall pick (although, it seems like every time that happens there is not a clear cut, consensus generational #1 overall - even with Gerrit Cole, there was some debate as to whether he, a handful of other college pitchers like Bauer, or Rendon should be the pick) and should be in 'contention' for it the next two years, as well.

[Swaggs]

Dola, I would really like to see the Pirates take a stab at some of these guys hanging out in free agency and overpay for a 1 or 2 year deal, in hopes of flipping them. Finding or establishing a good closer and a rotation arm or two, looking for the opportunity to start and rebuild value, would be worth risking some money. Honestly, Chris Archer would seem like an interesting option to see if he can stay healthy for 12-15 starts and then get dealt.

[Ksyrup]

I can't tell if the Curt Schilling thing is a reverse-reverse psychology play to get himself elected ("we're keeping you on the ballot and electing you to piss you off!") or an attempt by Schilling to not get elected to own the libs. I'd think much more of Schilling's position if he just refused to go in the HOF altogether, not just because people he doesn't like are in charge of voting (but the players can put me in that would be great!).

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Butter

What happens when 5 teams try to rebuild at once?

What's odd is that only the Pirates are really rebuilding. The other four teams are just putting out 2/3 of what they had last year.

One of them is going to win and think they outsmarted baseball.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I can't tell if the Curt Schilling thing is a reverse-reverse psychology play to get himself elected ("we're keeping you on the ballot and electing you to piss you off!") or an attempt by Schilling to not get elected to own the libs. I'd think much more of Schilling's position if he just refused to go in the HOF altogether, not just because people he doesn't like are in charge of voting (but the players can put me in that would be great!).

I think part of it is Schilling is pissed that's he's being held accountable for the irresponsible shit he's said and doesn't like that he has "lib journalists" deciding his fate. The other part is after seeing how the veterans committee has operated he sees it as an easier path to election without being publicly judged each year.

As for the others, I don't mind baseball writers applying a standard when it comes to PEDs even if it's not entirely consistent. Very few things about Hall of Fame voting are. The Ty Cobb was an asshole and maybe (unlikely) a murderer or players in the 60s and 70s were doing amphetamines or players in the 70s and 80s were doing coke so let all of these guys in is a flawed argument as well. Just because guys like Freddie Lindstrom, Bill Mazeroski, Rube Maruard and others got in as mediocre to good players doesn't mean all players at their level should get in too.

[dubb93]

I refuse to allow the trashing of NL Central teams continue without mentioning the Cubs. That’s all I need to say. The Cubs.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I think part of it is Schilling is pissed that's he's being held accountable for the irresponsible shit he's said and doesn't like that he has "lib journalists" deciding his fate. The other part is after seeing how the veterans committee has operated he sees it as an easier path to election without being publicly judged each year.

As for the others, I don't mind baseball writers applying a standard when it comes to PEDs even if it's not entirely consistent. Very few things about Hall of Fame voting are. The Ty Cobb was an asshole and maybe (unlikely) a murderer or players in the 60s and 70s were doing amphetamines or players in the 70s and 80s were doing coke so let all of these guys in is a flawed argument as well. Just because guys like Freddie Lindstrom, Bill Mazeroski, Rube Maruard and others got in as mediocre to good players doesn't mean all players at their level should get in too.

I think Joe Posnanski put it best - if people are going to harp on the character clause to keep guys like Schilling, Bonds, and Clemens out, then it should go the other way and good character guys with borderline stats should be in as well. As is, it's people hiding behind the character clause because they don't like the player.

Personally, I don't have a dog in the fight anymore. I used to think it was really, really stupid that Bonds and Clemens weren't in the Hall, but now I think it's this sort of argument that the Hall lives for. As in, the argument itself is more important than whether or not they actually get in.

[miked]

Scott Rolen and Omar Vizquel at 50% each? Sounding like the Hall of Who Cares.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miked

Scott Rolen and Omar Vizquel at 50% each? Sounding like the Hall of Who Cares.

Vizquel has no business. Rolen is a top 10 all time at his position guy. For some reason fans and writers don't really care about 3rd basemen though. If you moved Brooks Robinson's career out of the 60s and 70s and into the 80s and 90s he probably doesn't see the Hall of Fame or anywhere near as many all star games and MVP votes.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

I think Joe Posnanski put it best - if people are going to harp on the character clause to keep guys like Schilling, Bonds, and Clemens out, then it should go the other way and good character guys with borderline stats should be in as well. As is, it's people hiding behind the character clause because they don't like the player.

Personally, I don't have a dog in the fight anymore. I used to think it was really, really stupid that Bonds and Clemens weren't in the Hall, but now I think it's this sort of argument that the Hall lives for. As in, the argument itself is more important than whether or not they actually get in.

If we wanted a 100% fair Hall of Fame I agree. That's impossible to have, though, and the standard has changed so many times over the years that I have no problem with the standard for PEDs. The voting now is probably better than its ever been and, outside of the veterans committee, we don't have guys pouring based on who they were friends with, played for, or played with anymore.

[tarcone]

Rolen was amazing, both offensively and defensively. He definitely belongs, as does Bonds, Clemens and Schilling.

The morality thing is stupid. How long did the media hide the transgressions of ball players? Why now do they have the "high ground:"?

[JPhillips]

HoF voting has always been stupid and arbitrary.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Yeah, I've never understood the "case" against Rolen. He was incredible defensively, like very incredible. And he was a great hitter. And he did it for a while. The blind spot for 3B in the hall is super weird.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

And he was a great hitter.

He was a good hitter, not a great one for his era. His "gray ink" (seasons in top 10 in a stat) illustrates that

Give or take he was a regular for 13 seasons.

Only 1x top 10 in his league for Slugging
Only 1x top 10 OBP
Only 1x top 10 OBP+Slg
Only 2x top 10 RBI
Only 3x top 10 WAR
Only 2x top 10 OWAR
Only 4x top 10 DWAR

[Vince, Pt. II]

122 OPS+ for his career would indicate that he was 22% better than "a regular" - and that's including some down years at the end of his career. I guess it's a couple things:

1. Should a player's position matter when you consider his numbers for Hall of Fame purposes?
2. Are you a peak or longevity guy?

Rolen had one stellar year - 2004, 34 HR, .314/.409/.598 - but was consistently a very good hitter (130+ OPS+) year after year.

And among 3B, he's better than more than half the already-elected Hall of Fame 3B in Career WAR, 7-Year Peak WAR, and JAWS.

I mean, you're talking a good to very good hitter who played premier defense at maybe the third most difficult defensive position on the diamond. He seems like a no-brainer to me.

[Vince, Pt. II]

(I'll give you that "great" probably oversells him as a hitter)

[miami_fan]

The Nolan Arenado trade to the St. Louis Cardinals is done, sources tell ESPN. Rockies getting multiple players and sending upward of $50 million to St. Louis.

Jeff Passan, ESPN 1m ago

[JPhillips]

The last I saw had four prospects going to CO, the highest-rated being the Cards #15. The Rockies are basically giving Arenado away.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The last I saw had four prospects going to CO, the highest-rated being the Cards #15. The Rockies are basically giving Arenado away.

Yeah, this blows. Basically they said "here's $50M and a franchise player just so you can pay the other $150M... oh, and he can opt out after next year (tho that part isn't clear yet)" all because he had an off year and billionaires are "bleeding money" due to a pandemic that the rest of us are peachy keen through /s

SI

[Atocep]

The Rockies were stuck in a shitty situation. Arenado can opt out after this season and he had made comments about the importance of playing for a winner.

After signing him to that extension they found themselves really needing to retool coming off a pandemic season where only a couple of teams have been willing to spend and Arenado is coming off a year where his batted ball numbers completely tanked. That may have been because of his shoulder injury, but 3rd basemen to end to fall of a cliff offensively as they enter their 30s and Arenado has never been among the top players in exit velo or barrell% so you wonder what the move away from Coors will do to him. He should maintain enough defensive value to to remain playable into his mid 30s, but there's some significant risk here.

[tarcone]

Im on board with the risk. Goldschmidt and Arenado at the corners is a division winning team.

I heard today that the Cardinals raised beer prices to $15 a cup.

[tarcone]

And the Cards didnt have to give up either of their 3B prospects and both are VG. This may be a one year deal for the Cards to bridge them to one of their prospects.

[MrBug708]

I'm glad this trade happened. And as a Dodger fan Nolan, make sure you opt out after this year and say F**k the Cards. Baseball will be proud of you!

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I'm glad this trade happened. And as a Dodger fan Nolan, make sure you opt out after this year and say F**k the Cards. Baseball will be proud of you!

Again, this wouldnt bother me. 2 of the top Cardinal prospects are 3B. And the Rockies are paying most of his salary for him to play here. Win-win for the Cardinals.

[JPhillips]

No way Arrenado opts out with that salary.

But it's a great deal for the Cards. It's basically getting Arenado for Springer's salary.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

No way Arrenado opts out with that salary.

But it's a great deal for the Cards. It's basically getting Arenado for Springer's salary.

Yeah I don't see 30 year old Nolan Arenado getting a 5 year $164m contract (or 6/$179 if the added year is right) in normal economic times, and I definitely don't see it happening after 2 years of majorly negatively impacted revenue streams. He's not opting out, and as much as it's likely the Cardinals won this deal and he'll definitely bounce back some, there's some major downside risk if his struggles at the plate signaled the start of a decline, not solely the effects of a shoulder injury.

[miami_fan]

I am not at the point when I am blaming the Mets but damn. The stories keep coming out and the people involved keep being associated with the Mets.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I am not at the point when I am blaming the Mets but damn. The stories keep coming out and the people involved keep being associated with the Mets.

The Wilpons are going to be the gift that keeps on giving when it comes to bad news stories.

[BishopMVP]

The Wilpons? Or is this about Cohen and Gamestonk? (Which really doesn't have anything to do with the Mets, though yah he probably should not have been on Twitter.)

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

The Wilpons? Or is this about Cohen and Gamestonk? (Which really doesn't have anything to do with the Mets, though yah he probably should not have been on Twitter.)

I could be wrong, but I thought he was referencing the Mickey Callaway allegations.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I could be wrong, but I thought he was referencing the Mickey Callaway allegations.

Ahh, hadn't seen those.