WW LXXXV -- Life Contingencies II (GAME OVER)

[Hannibal Lecter]

Barkeep is concerning me, he is usually a big poster, with lots of insight, and it seems he has only posted twice this whole thread... this is odd

vote barkeep

I need to vote for somewhere, and other than not Heinze and not lathum I have no ideas.

[path12]

Is there a count?

[Danny]

No, we have a cannibal, but no dracula

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by Danny

No, we have a cannibal, but no dracula

'


very funny, I bet you laughed when kids fell off the jungle gym in school. Its ok I did too!

[Danny]

I work at a school, so I still do

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

In every game that there is a duke role or a villager night kill role, they more often than not end up killing a fellow good guy anyways. The longer they go without using the power, the better chance at being correct with it. In some games, the only benefit of the duke power is being able to add a auto-trusted member.

Here Lathum can do that without having to worry about guessing incorrectly. Sure it is a gamble to wait later to use the power, but honestly in today's vote the math shows that a non-rolled villager has a better chance at guessing correctly on the lynch then a rolled villager (including the duke) does. Since I know 3 people right now who are good, vs the two he knows is good.

You could have a point and I may have over-reacted. I'm not totally convinced I understand all the ramifications of this ruleset.

Given the general response to my vote I'll likely move it since I don't really want Lathum to get lynched. Everyone has checked in, right?

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by Danny

I work at a school, so I still do

Oh, excellent! Child is very tender.

[Danny]

I'm pretty sure everyone has checked in

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by path12

Hell, I don't care if you duke it to me though it won't help anything. As I just mentioned last post, it seems pretty obvious to me that this is a villager play on my part.

But you put a 40% chance on yourself being killed tonight without using your power. I disagree with you and Alan that there is upside for the village in that.

If someone can convince me differently, I'm more than happy to move the vote.

You've hit a nail dead on, unless he intends to use his power tonight lathum just set himself up as an obvious target at the highest chance of being killed.

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

Since there have been no other reveals (unless I missed one) I think its a safe bet that the Body guard will be guarding Lathum! so there is not a 40% chance he gets hit.

Bodyguard is just another percentage so its no guarentee that its a saving shot to have the BG on lathum either.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Hmm, I'm going to go after the wolf from last game who has not given his thoughts on the vote this afternoon other than:

* ponder ponder ponder *

VOTE RENDER

I actually considered asking Pass to make me a wolf again in this game thinking that none of you would suspect me being a wolf twice in a row in idential games. Glad I had to get to work and couldn't message him =)

I've been busy today, been trying to read stuff but between students and friends and coworkers vanishing into the ether, well i've just been otherwise occupied.


As for my vote, I see and understand path12's ealier position, lathums reveal was just plain dumb IF he doesn't use his power tonight because its putting himself on the block to be killed. Who would do something that dumb? A wolf because they know that they're safe anyway.

I don't actually tihnk lathum is a wolf atm, however I'm still rather bafffled at the reveal. lathum's not normally a dumbass =) So whats his reasoning? I'm expecting a last second Duking to someone else.

VOTE ALAN T

Not any real evidence to forge that vote on, its more of a feeling I get reading his posts. They're not as wel thought out as he normally posts, they're not as longwinded and they're a bit more argumentative than what he normally posts.

So call it a Day-I-You-make-my-skin-crawl vote.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RendeR

You've hit a nail dead on, unless he intends to use his power tonight lathum just set himself up as an obvious target at the highest chance of being killed.



Bodyguard is just another percentage so its no guarentee that its a saving shot to have the BG on lathum either.



I actually considered asking Pass to make me a wolf again in this game thinking that none of you would suspect me being a wolf twice in a row in idential games. Glad I had to get to work and couldn't message him =)

I've been busy today, been trying to read stuff but between students and friends and coworkers vanishing into the ether, well i've just been otherwise occupied.


As for my vote, I see and understand path12's ealier position, lathums reveal was just plain dumb IF he doesn't use his power tonight because its putting himself on the block to be killed. Who would do something that dumb? A wolf because they know that they're safe anyway.

I don't actually tihnk lathum is a wolf atm, however I'm still rather bafffled at the reveal. lathum's not normally a dumbass =) So whats his reasoning? I'm expecting a last second Duking to someone else.

VOTE ALAN T

Not any real evidence to forge that vote on, its more of a feeling I get reading his posts. They're not as wel thought out as he normally posts, they're not as longwinded and they're a bit more argumentative than what he normally posts.

So call it a Day-I-You-make-my-skin-crawl vote.

Either you just skimmed the thread or you really have a different agenda here. I am guessing I probably have near the most posts in the thread, have posted pretty much all kinds of reasons behind my posts and have gone to great detail on why I felt the point Path made was not only wrong, but very un-villager in nature. That then means my posts were not well thought out? I actually think you make me feel I am more right about Path, and if/when he comes up as a wolf, you are next.

[path12]

UNVOTE LATHUM
VOTE THE JACKAL

Random because I haven't seen much from him.

[path12]

Vote count:

path 2 -- Alan T, Lathum
Jackal 2 -- heinz, path
Chief Rum 1 -- Packer
Packer 1 -- Chief Rum
RendeR 1 -- hoopsguy
Barkeep 1 -- Hannibal
Alan T 1 -- RendeR

Not voted: Jackal/Barkeep/Danny

[Danny]

I don't care to vote for someone like BK or CR who won't be here to defend themselves. I will likely vote Path, Render, PackerFanatic or Jackal

[Lathum]

using my role today doesn't help us either considering the lack of information

But for the record, it makes no sense for him to fake reveal as the duke and I do believe him. I'm just trying to get him to use the power now that he's put it out there.

[/quote]

You are trying to get me to use my power by putting a vote on me, potentialy getting me killed? That isn't the action of a villager, that is the action of a wolf who knows he should kill me tonight, but hopes he can get me lynched so he can go after another target.

[Lathum]

I'm duking to Path, just can't get past his play today.

[Danny]

Are you sure? If so, I will throw my vote over to him in trying to save your duke ability as I'm not opposed to voting for him

[Lathum]

I am sure, throw your vote there if you like to increase the likliehood of a lynch, but his play is to suspect.

[Danny]

Vote Path

I'm not convinced he's a wolf, but is one of my possibilities and I would prefer to save the duke ability if we can get as equal of a chance of killing Path as the duke through vote. Plus with the Duke there is a 10% chance Lathum is killed

[Lathum]

and FWIW me revealing as the Duke isn't a dumbass move at all, despite what Render says.

It gives us a trusted role that the wolves don't have to be to concerned with and the BG can still protect me.

Even if the BG chooses to NOT protect me there is the liklihood he will, which casts serious doubt in the wolves minds.

Render may not agree with the move, but to say it is a dumbass move is a bit strong.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, would you like to see consolidation of the vote around Path or does it just not matter to you?

If it doesn't matter, I'll just leave my vote where it was as a measure of my D1 suspicion. If it does, I'm willing to move it to help create some more consolidation at the top, leaving you the option to hold onto the Duke.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and FWIW me revealing as the Duke isn't a dumbass move at all, despite what Render says.

It gives us a trusted role that the wolves don't have to be to concerned with and the BG can still protect me.

Even if the BG chooses to NOT protect me there is the liklihood he will, which casts serious doubt in the wolves minds.

Render may not agree with the move, but to say it is a dumbass move is a bit strong.

I honestly don't know what is up with Render's post.

He was insulting
He was incorrect
He was not very observant with his comments about my play either.

It is like he was reading last game or something instead of this one. Maybe that is why I was quiet.. I didn't play in that game.

[Danny]

I'm not Lathum, but would rather see votes for Path myself. We need at least 5 votes for him to make it a stronger play than duking it to him.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, would you like to see consolidation of the vote around Path or does it just not matter to you?

If it doesn't matter, I'll just leave my vote where it was as a measure of my D1 suspicion. If it does, I'm willing to move it to help create some more consolidation at the top, leaving you the option to hold onto the Duke.

I would prefer consolodation since each vote will increase the chances

[hoopsguy]

UNVOTE RENDER
VOTE PATH

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I'll be kinda surprised if this turns out to be a better vote than Render.

Also, chances are pretty good that I'm out from now until deadline.

[The Jackal]

My bad guys, I got distracted and just got back to the thread.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You are trying to get me to use my power by putting a vote on me, potentialy getting me killed? That isn't the action of a villager, that is the action of a wolf who knows he should kill me tonight, but hopes he can get me lynched so he can go after another target.

Wrong, but that's cool. Like I said I've got no role so I'm not a valuable piece. I will say you obviously haven't read everything I've written today, I specifically said that I believe your reveal and took my vote off so you didn't have a chance of getting killed.

I still believe my point is valid, but based on the responses was willing to say I missed how the rules make you safer that I originally thought.

It's apparent that you were willing to take the chance that the bodyguard will get a good block on you tonight if the wolves go in your direction. Of course if you duke me tonight then you'll be lower on their list anyway.

I'm also realizing that I'm not enjoying WW very much right now, and that's a bigger concern to me than whether or not I get duked.

[The Jackal]

vote path

RendeR's giving off funny vibes but this is mostly self preservation, increase my percentages a little.

[Danny]

path 4 -- Alan T, Lathum, Hoopsguy, Danny
Jackal 2 -- heinz, path
Chief Rum 1 -- Packer
Packer 1 -- Chief Rum
Barkeep 1 -- Hannibal
Alan T 1 -- RendeR

[The Jackal]

And now I'm heading out, probably back real late. If I'm still around tmw I'll offer some further thoughts.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

I'm also realizing that I'm not enjoying WW very much right now, and that's a bigger concern to me than whether or not I get duked.

Sorry path that you are feeling this way. I actually went through something like that myself recently (started this past summer), so I won't say I know how you feel but I can relate. I hope I am not partially to blame for this. If you end up being good, I apologize, but out of all of the day 1 discussion I just felt your reasoning seemed the least logical (at least until Render posted, but at that point was a bit late to move to him).

Anyways, irregardless if I am right or wrong about you, sorry that you are feeling this way.. I think you and I aren't alone lately and I wonder why we all feel that way and if anything can be improved to change it.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I see my fine colleague, Dr. Caglia, has decided to enhance the tension.....

[Passacaglia]

path 4 -- Alan T, Lathum, Hoopsguy, Danny
Jackal 2 -- heinz, path
Chief Rum 1 -- Packer
Packer 1 -- Chief Rum
Barkeep 1 -- Hannibal
Alan T 1 -- RendeR

Trusting Danny's count. The villagers talk it over and decide that Barkeep49 will be the one to die tonight. Barkeep49 was a villager!

[hoopsguy]

I guess we can assume that Lathum bluffed it?

Hmm, 10% hit?

Path, guess you get to continue not enjoying yourself for another day unless the wolves get creative with their night kill. On a more serious note, I would be interested in chatting about it outside of this thread at some point if you want to shoot the breeze (publicly or privately) on the topic.

[Lathum]

I feel the same way Path does FWIW.

[Lathum]

dola- no Bluff, BK got very unlucky

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

On a more serious note, I would be interested in chatting about it outside of this thread at some point if you want to shoot the breeze (publicly or privately) on the topic.

Same here. I'm just coming off a small WW break, so that kind of conversation would be interesting.

[Danny]

I posted as jackal was voting, so hopefully his vote got counted in there as well. Bad break on BK, and I think that was a very poor vote overall.

That said, I feel like Path is likely a villager with his reaction, so I'm not too upset he wasn't lynched

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

I posted as jackal was voting, so hopefully his vote got counted in there as well. Bad break on BK, and I think that was a very poor vote overall.

That said, I feel like Path is likely a villager with his reaction, so I'm not too upset he wasn't lynched

Thanks -- luckily it wouldn't have changed the result.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, what parts of the vote did you feel were particularly poor? Is the complaint that it was poorly coordinated, wrong guy, bad reasoning posted, etc?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

That said, I feel like Path is likely a villager with his reaction, so I'm not too upset he wasn't lynched

Ordinarily I would say this is a valid point, but in a game where there is a chance you won't be lynched due to the random factor you can't let down your guard at all

[Danny]

A couple. First, I do think it was poorly coordinate with the rest of us. Second, BK wasn't going to be around today and the reason that was given for voting him was him being quiet. Also, considering there is one role which is left unaccounted for, I felt voting for someone who wasn't around much and may not have realized people were revealing was not a great idea on day one.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Ordinarily I would say this is a valid point, but in a game where there is a chance you won't be lynched due to the random factor you can't let down your guard at all

That's true, but I got a big villager vibe from him. Could be a ploy, but hopefully others suspects reveal themselves tomorrow.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Dr. Caglia certainly loves the drama building delays!

[Hannibal Lecter]

I also feel very bad about falling asleep and not switching my vote last night. very unfortunate for Mr. Keep.

[Passacaglia]

You wake up in the morning, and realize that one of you is missing -- jeheinz72 is nowhere to be seen. He was the bodyguard!

[Hannibal Lecter]

Well..... At least he wasnt the seer. This is not a fortuitous beginning to this exercise for us! I think at this point there is no advantage to us to have the seer reveal, with no body guard, it would be a miracle if they survived one night.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, I would love to see a re-jump of the numbers from the stats crunchers before jumping on that, although I would say it seems unlikely to be a good idea to continue with hoops' original plan. One roled villager is out, and two others have been eliminated by death from being potential wolves. So the wolves have an even smaller window now. But I wait to hear from others before I go one way or the other on that.

I am going off to work, but no second job for me today, so I will be around before deadline.

[jeheinz72]

I think I'm just not destined to last very long in this game.

Good luck village!

[Danny]

Not a good start. I don't have much time to be online today, so I'm going to throw a vote out early.

I think both Path and Render are simply misplaced villagers. I really don't think a wolf comes out that strong on day one and I've played with Render enough that he tends to upset people like that when he is a villager. Last game as a wolf, he played Mr. Nice.

Vote The Jackal

I'm not sold on anyone, but was leaning towards voting him, or PF