2012 Olympics...Who will win?

[TazFTW]

London!

[Young Drachma]

Well at least the oddsmakers were wrong

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

I wonder how long it will be until Bahrain or the UAE make a bid. Sure there's not much there (except luxury hotels and shopping) but you'd figure that unlimited wealth to build complete infrastructure from scratch has to count for something.

Ooh..good call. I never thought of this.

[Alf]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Well at least the oddsmakers were wrong

See, we should have listened to you and put money on London

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Alf

See, we should have listened to you and put money on London

I should've listened to me and put money on London

[andy m]

why did they give it london? practically nobody who lives there wants the olympics. its just a tax-payers sinkhole.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by andy m

why did they give it london? practically nobody who lives there wants the olympics. its just a tax-payers sinkhole.

Because the London bid folk convinced them that they were going to redevelop blighted parts of London, rather than build huge stadiums that would get no more use after the games. Whether it's true or not, the IOC bought it.

Well that and I think gamesmanship that France got too comfy as the frontrunner. The USA surely pulled a powerplay after it got booted.

[Alf]

Originally Posted by andy m

why did they give it london? practically nobody who lives there wants the olympics. its just a tax-payers sinkhole.

yeah, you pay taxes for that. Not us France wins !

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

I guess it's fair, but then you have to wonder who gets it in 2016. New York says they won't bother to put together another bid, but you have to like their chances in 2016, since Europe won't get the games again and Africa isn't expected to be ready until 2020.

I wonder if Toronto will bid again. They were strong contenders in 1996 and 2008, so they may be "due" in the eyes of the voters (especially if 2016 is seen as a North American year). There's still the perception that Toronto was shafted by Atlanta's underhanded bid in '96, so there may be a sympathy vote as well. Plus Toronto offers many of the benefits of New York (i.e. east coast time zone) without having to deal with the anti-American sentiments that some votes will have.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

I wonder if Toronto will bid again. They were strong contenders in 1996 and 2008, so they may be "due" in the eyes of the voters (especially if 2016 is seen as a North American year). There's still the perception that Toronto was shafted by Atlanta's underhanded bid in '96, so there may be a sympathy vote as well. Plus Toronto offers many of the benefits of New York (i.e. east coast time zone) without having to deal with the anti-American sentiments that some votes will have.

Atlanta's underhanded bid? Oh do give me some details, what happened that makes you say this? Honestly, I haven't a clue, I wanna know!

[Wolfpack]

Doing a bit of research, here's a list of Olympic sites from 1960-2012 by continent:

North America (9/4)
2010 Vancouver*
2002 Salt Lake City*
1996 Atlanta
1988 Calgary*
1984 Los Angeles
1980 Lake Placid*
1976 Montreal
1968 Mexico City
1960 Squaw Valley*

Asia (5/3)
2008 Beijing
1998 Nagano*
1988 Seoul
1972 Sapporo*
1964 Tokyo

Europe (13/6)
2012 London
2006 Turin*
2004 Athens
1994 Lillehammer*
1992 Albertville*
1992 Barcelona
1984 Sarajevo*
1980 Moscow
1976 Innsbruck*
1972 Munich
1968 Grenoble*
1964 Innsbruck*
1960 Rome

Australia (1/1)
2000 Sydney

*--Winter site
(#/#)--first number is total games held, second is Summer games held

------------

Clearly, NA and Europe have dominated hosting the games over the long term, but Asia and Australia have hosted four of the ten games since 1988 and will get another crack in 2008. I don't expect the Winter Games to move outside NA or Europe often since both continents have the infrastructure to host the various events in a Winter Olympics. It should be noted that with London hosting, Europe will have not had a strech without the Summer Games longer than 12 years (though they have a 10 year stretch from 1984 to 1994 where they didn't host any games). If the US or Canada got lucky and were awarded in 2016, it would be 20 years since Atlanta in 1996. I suspect a US or Canadian bid will win in 2016 or 2020 for that reason, and after that expect the Summer Games to finally move to Africa and South America.

[Barkeep49]

I think it will either be a North American city or Rio. My instinct tells me though that the US will not nominate New York again.

[NoMyths]

Something tells me that after New York was eliminated, they were all too happy to throw their votes against the French.

[henry296]

I think each country only gets 1 vote, so I am not sure that New York losing had a big impact on the eventual outcome, unless they got the other people who supported them to support London.

[MIJB#19]

I can't even believe that Madrid and New York were candidates, their countries hosted the Games of 1992 and 1996.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Atlanta's underhanded bid? Oh do give me some details, what happened that makes you say this? Honestly, I haven't a clue, I wanna know!

During the fallout on the Salt Lake scandal, there were revelations/accusations about the Atlanta bid greasing a few palms. Delegates were treated to expensive shopping trips, etc. Not at the same level as Salt Lake, but enough to leave a bad taste.

[Desnudo]

I know nothing about the bidding process, but was the US alone in doing this?

[GreenMonster]

I voted London.... I have a good feeling they will win..

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Just like in Waterloo, Trafalgar, Agincourt....London beats Paris again!

[rkmsuf]

Tea and strumpets for everyone!

[Desnudo]

Mmm, strumpets

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by NoMyths

Something tells me that after New York was eliminated, they were all too happy to throw their votes against the French.

I agree with this.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I think it will either be a North American city or Rio. My instinct tells me though that the US will not nominate New York again.

I agree with this. NY probably has a bad taste in its mouth and given the Olympics desire to go with a more "lean" theme, NYC will never fit into that mold since the Olympics would be the most expensive ever.

I think Toronto or Rio will win in 2016, with Africa getting it in 2020...since that'll be 10 years after Cape Town's FIFA World Cup, seems about right timewise.

[Young Drachma]

Here they are...

The city of London has been elected host city for the Games of the XXX Olympiad in 2012. The announcement has just been made by IOC President Jacques Rogge, in the framework of the 117th IOC Session in Singapore London was elected in the 4th round of the vote.


Detailed reportThe IOC members made their choice based on not only the presentations made today by the delegation from Paris, New York, Moscow, London and Madrid, but also the detailed report by the IOC Evaluation Commission, chaired by Nawal El Moutawakel.



Results of the vote:


Round 1
London: 22
Paris: 21
Madrid: 20
New York: 19
Moscow: 15

Round 2
Madrid: 32
London: 27
Paris: 25
New York: 16

Round 3
London: 39
Paris: 33
Madrid: 31

Round 4
London: 54
Paris: 50

Really surprised that Madrid did that well in Round 3. But it's even more interesting that New York lost support between Rounds 1 and 2. Makes me all but certain there was a bloc at hand in this whole thing, given how well Madrid did comparatively. If they had the savvy of the NY team, one might argue they could've unseated Paris, because the sentiment was their bid wasn't as "polished" as the others.

Despite that it seems after Round 3, it was London all the way.

I think the irony of having the XXX Olympics in New York would've been hilarious.

[Galaxy]

How does the "bidding" process and selection process work exactly?

As for Toronto in 2016, I don't know. This would give Canada two Olympics within 6 years. What is the 2014 Winter games shaping up to be? I wonder if a city like Dubai would bid.

As for Africa, don't forget South Africa will get the World Cup in 2010. Does the World Cup play a role at all in the bidding process?

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

How does the "bidding" process and selection process work exactly?

As for Toronto in 2016, I don't know. This would give Canada two Olympics within 6 years. What is the 2014 Winter games shaping up to be? I wonder if a city like Dubai would bid.

As for Africa, don't forget South Africa will get the World Cup in 2010. Does the World Cup play a role at all in the bidding process?

Well, the Winter Olympics bidding process in recent years has been really obscure cities. Vancouver almost lost out to this remote Korean resort city for 2010.

Basically, cities will put together a bid. Then, the olympic committees of their respective countries will sift through the bids and choose one to the their "official bid."

Then the IOC will visit those cities, eventually weeding to get down to 5 candidate cities.

Cape Town last bid for the 2004 Olympics and came in 3rd behind Athens and Rome. So they've got a strong shot to get them in 2016 if they want to put up a bid..and most think it's not a matter of "if" Africa gets it, just when.

Buenos Aires bid during 2004, as well. But look at the vote from that year:

Rounds 1 2 3 4 5
Athens 32 38 52 66
Buenos Aires 16 44
Cape Town 16 62 22 20
Rome 23 28 35 41
Stockholm 20 19

Clearly, if Buenos Aires and Cape Town tied in the 1st round, forcing a runoff between the two...it means that the IOC voters are going to choose either South America or Africa, but it won't be a final vote between the two. I guess that's probably 3rd world voters putting their weight behind one or the other.

The fact that South Africa will get the World Cup in 2010 is a good thing, because the IOC wants to see that your country has the capacity and experience of hosting a large scale, worldwide international event. They've previously hosted the Rugby World Cup not too long ago, as well.

So it'll be an interesting battle.

Here are some Wikipedia articles about the 2014 and 2016 games, that are really interesting:

2014 Winter Games candidate

The deadline for submitting preliminary bids is July 28, 2005.

The following cities have officially announced their intentions to submit an application to the International Olympic Committee.

* Borjomi or Bakuriani, Georgia
* Östersund, Sweden
* Pyeongchang, South Korea
* Salzburg, Austria
* Sofia, Bulgaria
* Tromsø, Norway

Östersund, along with the leading ski resort of Åre, will be making its fourth bid to the International Olympic Committee since 1994. Pyeongchang and Salzburg, which both competed for the 2010 games, will present their second bids. Sofia's bid will incorporate the ski resorts of Borovets and Bansko, which are undergoing major improvements and expansion efforts. The Sofia bid got the needed government support on July 23. Tromsø is located above the Arctic Circle and that city's bid plans to use cruise ships as the Olympic Village. Since Tromsø's ski slopes on the mountains end in the sea, it would be a unique venue. However, as the Norwegian government has not guaranteed money to the bid, its status is currently in jeopardy. Georgia announced on June 22, 2005 that the resorts Borjomi and Bakuriani has applied for the games. President Mikheil Saakashvili has signed the Georgia’s official bid at the ceremony held in the office of the Georgian Olympic Committee.

In December 2004, the International Ski Federation issued an official report saying that Muju in South Korea does not have the ability to host an Olympic Games due to environmental and technical reasons. This leaves Pyeongchang, the country's 2010 Winter Olympics candidate, as the lone viable Korean candidate for the 2014 games. On December 22, the Korea Olympic Committee unanimously selected Pyeongchang as the Korean candidate for the 2014 Winter Olympics.

Other potential bids are possible from Annecy or Grenoble in France, Erzurum in Turkey, Harbin in the People's Republic of China, Reno, Nevada and South Lake Tahoe, California (jointly) in the United States, Jaca in Spain and Sochi in Russia.

Andorra la Vella announced in December that it would not seek to host the 2014 Olympics. The Parishes of Ordino and Escaldes-Engordany had showed interest in bidding.

There will be no bid from Switzerland as Zürich withdrew its bid on September 14, 2004. Also Munich, Germany will not bid for the 2014 games.

2016 Summer Olympics Potential cities

On this list apparently include:

# Busan, South Korea (Busan's Mayor announced on 2 October 2002)
# Delhi, India (IOA announced 27 December 2003)
# Dubai, United Arab Emirates (According to 1 March 2004 Report)
# Hamburg, Germany (According to 17 February 2004 Mayor's Announcement)
# Japan (Sapporo or Fukuoka) (JOC announces 19 May 2005)
# Kenya (GamesBids.com Reports 12 January 2005)
# Naples, Milan or Rome, Italy (GamesBids.com Reports Feb. 18, 2005)
# Madrid, Spain (According to Spanish Authorities, reported in BBC News)[1]
# Minneapolis-St. Paul, USA (According to 7 August 2003 Report)
# Moscow, Russia (Announced intention to bid again after failure of its 2012 bid [2]
# Portugal (GamesBids.com Reports 7 January 2004)
# Rotterdam, Netherlands (Under investigation)
# St. Petersburg, Russia (According to Vice Governor, 29 December 2003)
# San Diego USA, Tijuana Mexico (Binational bid study underway according to 24 January 2005 report.)
# Santiago, Chile (Announced Chile's NOC President on 15 October 2002)
# Tel Aviv, Israel (conducting feasibility study, admits challenges.)
# Thailand (According to 15 September 2004 Report)

And there was this note.

However, with the election of London to host the XXXth Olympiad in 2012 it is considered extremely unlikely that the 2016 Games will be awarded to a European city. This would rule out several of the above potential bids. It is widely expected that in 2016 the Games will return to the USA, due to an unwritten convention that every 20 years the IOC reciprocate for the vast payments by the NBC media group for Olympic coverage - funds that largely bankroll the IOC.

You can rule out all the European cities for 2016. Also, you can rule out Russia. But Dubai is a really, really interesting opportunity (as has been mentioned here..) The bi-national bid thing won't work, because even though they're close in location..the IOC will take the nod from FIFA that said after the joint Korean/Japan world cup they'd never allow another two-nation bid again.

Plus Tijuana is a dump.

Other cities will emerge, but of all the cities on that list..you have to like Dubai as an early favourite. St. Paul could make a nice darkhorse, too. Though why wouldn't they try to host the winter games? Seems more logical to me.

Fast forwarding to 2020, is this interesting note.

Denver, Colorado (USA) is conducting a feasibility study for either the 2018 Winter Olympics or 2020 Summer Olympics. However, Denver has the dubious distinction of being the only city to reject hosting duties (in 1976). This is widely viewed as a huge hindrance to the bid effort, if not killing it completely.

I think 2020 seems to be Cape Town's year to bid.

[Wolfpack]

I'd say the reason St. Paul won't do the Winter Games is fairly straightforward. Is there a world-class downhill mountain anywhere near the Twin Cities?

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Wolfpack

I'd say the reason St. Paul won't do the Winter Games is fairly straightforward. Is there a world-class downhill mountain anywhere near the Twin Cities?

Ok...good call.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

As for Toronto in 2016, I don't know. This would give Canada two Olympics within 6 years.

True, but there's precendent for that -- the US hosted in 1996 and 2002, as well as 1980 (winter) and 1984 (summer).

[ice4277]

Originally Posted by Wolfpack

I'd say the reason St. Paul won't do the Winter Games is fairly straightforward. Is there a world-class downhill mountain anywhere near the Twin Cities?

Detroit made a pretty strong push for the Winter Olympics at some point in the 60s or 70s; I have a newspaper supplement that was published at the time about it. Apparently, it came fairly close to happening. There aren't really any world-class ski resorts in the area around here either, but they were going to build something for it. I'll try and find the booklet at some point if I get the chance.

[Galaxy]

What is the future of the World Cup? Germany hosts it next year, and South Africa in 2010. How is that bidding process up for the few competition tournaments after 2010?

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

What is the future of the World Cup? Germany hosts it next year, and South Africa in 2010. How is that bidding process up for the few competition tournaments after 2010?

After the debacle in 2000 (for the 2006 Cup) where South Africa lost to Germany by a single vote after Oceania's rep abstained rather than vote for South Africa (resulting in a 12-11 win for Germany...the tie would've given the FIFA President a vote and he said he'd vote for South Africa) they decided to go with a rotational policy for each continent.

So in 2014, South America will get the World Cup. All the bids will come from there and they'll choose one.

2018 is obviously a ways off (they're not even starting the bidding process for 2014 until next year) but no one what continent will even get the games yet.