NFL Draft: Very interesting stats regarding QBs drafted Top 10

[DeToxRox]

Russell started only 29 games at LSU. Over the past ten years, collegiate games started has been the single greatest predictor of NFL success for early first-round quarterbacks. Since 1997 seven quarterbacks who started fewer than 30 games in college have been drafted in the top ten: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith.

Then this about Brady:

As for Quinn: Here is the complete list of players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler.
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[albionmoonlight]

Wow.

Where did you find this?

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Wow.

Where did you find this?

Someone posted over on a Lions board I go to. Crazy stats though. Hard to argue the validity.

[Tigercat]

One thing about Russell though, he has much more game experience than just those starts, he was part of a two QB system his RS. Freshman year, with Marcus Randall making most of the "Starts" that year. So hes been on the field more than all those other 30 start or less guys were in college.

[Passacaglia]

I'd imagine that if the statistic wanted QBs with 28 or fewer stats, it would look pretty similar -- would anyone be crossed off your list? Would one more college start really be enough to completely remove him from it?

[kurtism]

Those numbers are from the David Lewin article at FBOutsiders...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/200...fl-draft/5082/

[RedKingGold]

I read this in an ESPN NFL Draft Preview Mag as well (surprisingly).

[kurtism]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

I read this in an ESPN NFL Draft Preview Mag as well (surprisingly).

Not so big a surprise - the FBOutsiders guys were big contributors to the ESPN Draft magazine.

[bulletsponge]

wow. this plays right into what i think of Russell anyways. i think he will be a bustola while Quinn will be a solid but unspectactular qb

[Tigercat]

Again though, Russell has the experience of 36 games. He has three years of starter level experience. Even if Marcus Randall was the official starter in most games in 2004, Russell would end up playing a half of offensive football in those games.

The mistake of using purely quantitative data in sports and not even trying to dig deeper. (Even when there isn't that much digging required!)

[timmynausea]

Possibly worth mentioning: Tom Brady had 25 starts at Michigan, and like Russell he split time with another QB (Drew Henson) along the way.

[st.cronin]

If he was splitting time for a season, isn't it more like 30 games of starter experience? 2.5 years as a starter?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Russell started only 29 games at LSU. Over the past ten years, collegiate games started has been the single greatest predictor of NFL success for early first-round quarterbacks. Since 1997 seven quarterbacks who started fewer than 30 games in college have been drafted in the top ten: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith.

Then this about Brady:

As for Quinn: Here is the complete list of players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler.
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This stands out to me more than anything else:

Leaf (10 games) - idiot, poor team, poor line, no weapons on offense, started almost immediately
Couch (15 games) - started immediately, horrible line, no weapons on offense, horrible coaching staff
Akili (7 games) - started too early, bad offensive line, horrible coaching staff
Vick (8 games) - no receivers, can't throw anyway, played under several offensive systems already
Carr (16 games) - Started immediately, historically bad line, bad coaching staff
Harrington (14 games) - started almost immediately, matt millen
Alex Smith (9 games) - started too early, bad line, but had good coaching last year and improved quite a bit



Manning (16 games) - Its Peyton, good offensive weapons, excellent pass protection
McNabb (12 games) - Good coaching staff, brought along slowly despite playing in 12 games
Culpepper (zero games) - Sat his first season, good coaching, tons of offensive talent around him
Pennington (2 games) - sat his first season, sat his second season
Brees (1 game) - Sat his first season
Palmer (zero games) - sat his first season
Leftwich (15 games) - played almost immediately, but hasn't improved much
Eli Manning (9 games) - sat first half of the season, hasn't improved much
Rivers (2 games) - Sat forever
Roethlisberger (14 games) - played immediately, good offensive line, good offensive weapons, very limited play calling
Campbell (zero games) - sat for more than a year
Leinart (12 games) - good pass protection, good coaching, excellent offensive weapons
Cutler (5 games) - good line, good coaching, good weapons, sat more than half the season


Its not as simple as drawing a line at a number of college starts. Look at the number of guys on the second list that played in 5 or fewer games their rookie years. Peyton had Marshall Faulk, Marvin Harrison, and a very good line (22 sacks). McNabb was rather average until '04 when he got weapons (TO) and started running less. Leftwich hasn't improved. Roethlisberger played well, but wasn't asked to do much because the team had a lot of talent around him. Leinart had good pass protection (21 sacks) and 2 pro bowl receivers. Eli Manning hasn't improved. Everyone else sat more than half the season with most sitting more or less the entire season.

Leaf was a nutcase and started early behind a rather bad line (31 sacks) and didn't have many weapons on offense. Couch and Carr both had horrible offensive lines, no weapons on offense, and bad coaching staffs. Akili started one year in D1, played for the bengals, the end. Harrington played for the lions, no offensive help, the end. Jury is still out on Alex Smith, but the 49ers have been trying to put offensive talent around him and surrouned him with good QB coaches last year.

I think the most obvious thing there is if you're going to start a QB early you have to make sure you have weapons on the offensive side of the ball and at least a decent offensive line. Otherwise, sit your fanchise QB for the first year.

[rkmsuf]

Football is hard to fit these little trends into. So much depends on the person themselves, how they handle digesting the complexities of the league and the situation they are in.

Experience is certainly important but I wouldn't call Culpecker, Eli, Leftwich, Campbell world beaters either. Pennington, meh. Jury is still out on Cutler and LineArt to some degree.

Leaf seems like a "special" case and Couch and Smith were one draft.

Harrington was on the Lions. Carr was on an expansion team. Put Pennington on the Lions or Texans.

Neat little factoid but doesn't really make a huge impact on any opinions of Russell or Quinn to me.

[timmynausea]

Fun fact number 2: Drew Bledsoe only started 28 games at Washington State. Rick Mirer started 37 at Notre Dame. As it turned out that didn't mean Mirer could learn an NFL offense or throw to his left at all, both of which became clear after his rookie year.

[DaddyTorgo]

yeahhh...that FO article is clearly racist.


*note...i'm kidding

[timmynausea]

Just taking a glance at other recent 1st round QBs not mentioned here - Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey and Cade McNown all had over 30 starts in college. It's actually kind of hard to track down the college stats or I would've checked more guys.

[MikeVic]

They're not really comparing apples to apples.

First criteria is: quarterbacks who started fewer than 30 games in college have been drafted in the top ten.

Second criteria is: players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes.

Isn't this some kind of basic statistical rule? Compare using the same criteria?

[Ksyrup]

I thought the basic statistical rule was compare whatever makes your point more effectively.

[Daimyo]

If you read the full article and the one from last year when the system was introduced (and not just the second hand quotes above) it sounds a lot better. Basically the author went back and looked at QBs taken in the first two rounds and found that for those players the two factors that correlated best to pro success are numbers of college starts and completion percentage.

[Huckleberry]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Analysis....more analysis...etc.

My only issue with your post is that you put sack totals completely at the feet of the offensive line. Quarterbacks have a lot to do with the number of sacks they take.

Put Peyton Manning behind the Texans OL and David Carr behind the Colts OL for the past several years and the sack disparity would not be nearly as large as it has been with them on the other team.

[Ksyrup]

Put Rob Johnson behind the Texans OL and we'd be looking at the first QB killed on the field.

[SFL Cat]

One of those interesting stat comparison things, but ultimately meaningless in deciding who to draft at QB.