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Old 06-09-2009, 09:48 PM   #751
Telle
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
Could Pass have some sort of ability that allowed him to escape? It didn't sound like it was done by the wolves.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:49 PM   #752
KWhit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Yeah the math on that is tricky. I'm having a little trouble putting it together. But, according to my calculations, there's only a 4% chance that we learn 0 people's auras by Day 5. But remember just because we learn an aura doesn't find us a wolf. Randomly picking someone to lynch is going to produce better results until we've got a fairly long timetable.

I disagree since we're likely to kill a villager by lynching (just based on numbers). At least by jailing, we won't lose any of the good guys and we'll be establishing a COT.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:49 PM   #753
Danny
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Originally Posted by Schmidty View Post
If Pass isn't lynched or put back in, I am tempted to change the vote to him.

I'd be fine with you changing this vote. I wouldn't rule out changing it to a lynch either.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:49 PM   #754
Barkeep49
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
BK, considering changing your lynch candidate based on clap dropping out?
Sure. Give me someone else who is viable. Frankly I think clap is equally likely to drop out here as wolf or villager. I think we've made the mistake before of assuming a wolf wouldn't drop out.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:49 PM   #755
Tyrith
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Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
I disagree since we're likely to kill a villager by lynching (just based on numbers). At least by jailing, we won't lose any of the good guys and we'll be establishing a COT.

We MIGHT be establishing a COT. Not that I disagree with the jail plan.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:49 PM   #756
Barkeep49
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Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
I disagree since we're likely to kill a villager by lynching (just based on numbers). At least by jailing, we won't lose any of the good guys and we'll be establishing a COT.
We are lsoing good guys though through the nightly kill.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:50 PM   #757
Tyrith
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
Sure. Give me someone else who is viable. Frankly I think clap is equally likely to drop out here as wolf or villager. I think we've made the mistake before of assuming a wolf wouldn't drop out.

No, but it means we have zero evidence at this point.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:51 PM   #758
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
I disagree since we're likely to kill a villager by lynching (just based on numbers). At least by jailing, we won't lose any of the good guys and we'll be establishing a COT.

I just don't see your point here. With only a 20% chance to hit it will take forever to establish a COT.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:52 PM   #759
KWhit
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
We are lsoing good guys though through the nightly kill.

Yeah, I know. But you know what I was referring to (at least we are cannibalizing ourselves).

But, given that jailed people can be broken free willy-nilly changes a lot.

I almost think we should lynch Schmidty tonight, but doubt we have time to do so.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:52 PM   #760
Schmidty
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Originally Posted by Danny View Post
I'd be fine with you changing this vote. I wouldn't rule out changing it to a lynch either.

Oh, it would be a lynch.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:53 PM   #761
Lathum
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I would be willing to lynch KWhit based on what I perceive as him selling faulty logic that he should no bettert hen
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:54 PM   #762
Telle
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I'm not fond of voting Pass until we have a chance to hear from him about his breakout. I wouldn't mind moving off of Abe, but there's not currently another jail candidate other than myself and Pass.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:54 PM   #763
Barkeep49
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OK as I actually do this out the math is looking better for finding an aura of 1 person. It actually looks that assuming we have 2 people in jail it's nearly 50/50 that we find out one of them on Night 3. HOWEVER that doesn't reflect the fact that the overhwelming odds are that we find a villager.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:54 PM   #764
Tyrith
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I think we deal with Schmidty tomorrow. He's probably going to do whatever he wants today anyway.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:54 PM   #765
Danny
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Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
Yeah, I know. But you know what I was referring to (at least we are cannibalizing ourselves).

But, given that jailed people can be broken free willy-nilly changes a lot.

I almost think we should lynch Schmidty tonight, but doubt we have time to do so.

No point in lynching Schmidty yet as there is no one trusted to replace him with.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:54 PM   #766
Lathum
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can I vote to jail and lynch?
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:54 PM   #767
Lathum
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Lynch KWhit
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:54 PM   #768
KWhit
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I just don't see your point here. With only a 20% chance to hit it will take forever to establish a COT.

Well, depends on what you mean by forever, but with more people in the jail, the numbers move in our favor pretty quickly since it's 20% for each person. If we were to get 2-3 people in there and keep moving them in, we could be looking at at a handful of identifications happening.

But then there's the problem of them randomly escaping like Pass.

Sigh.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:55 PM   #769
Barkeep49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I would be willing to lynch KWhit based on what I perceive as him selling faulty logic that he should no bettert hen
What's the faulty logic? With me it's just been not understanding probability.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:55 PM   #770
Autumn
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unvote jail Abe (clap)
vote jail passacaglia


I want ot get this in while I'm tring to catch up on these shenanigans.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:55 PM   #771
dubb93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Lynch KWhit

This vote is not valid.
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Because you know it takes sound strategy to get killed repeatedly on day one right?
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:56 PM   #772
Schmidty
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Originally Posted by Tyrith View Post
I think we deal with Schmidty tomorrow. He's probably going to do whatever he wants today anyway.

Maybe I will, Tyrith.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:56 PM   #773
Schmidty
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I don't like your threatening suggestion one bit, btw.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:57 PM   #774
KWhit
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I would be willing to lynch KWhit based on what I perceive as him selling faulty logic that he should no bettert hen

Huh? Actually my logic is perfectly sound (with the caveat that there's nothing in the rules to suggest that Pass could just escape when he did).

And my understanding of probability is fine too.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:57 PM   #775
Schmidty
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Are you oushing me to lynch Pass, Tyrith?
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:57 PM   #776
dubb93
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Day 2 Vote Count:

Abe/Clap Jail - 6 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Abe/Clap Lynch - 3 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560), BK (698)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
Pass Jail - 2 - Tyrith (718), Autumn (770)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)
Telle Jail - 1 - Danny (736)


Yet to Vote: Pass, Render
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Originally Posted by McSweeny
Because you know it takes sound strategy to get killed repeatedly on day one right?
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:57 PM   #777
Tyrith
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidty View Post
I don't like your threatening suggestion one bit, btw.

Deal with doesn't mean lynch. Deal with means figure out what to do with. This is nothing we haven't said before. KWhit wants you dead now, as an alternative.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:58 PM   #778
Tyrith
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Quote:
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Are you oushing me to lynch Pass, Tyrith?

I'd rather not - this seems like something that needs to be talked about. But I really don't like putting Abe in jail; this whole clap thing was just a mess.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:58 PM   #779
Schmidty
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Sorry Tyrith, but my radar is going off.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:58 PM   #780
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
Well, depends on what you mean by forever, but with more people in the jail, the numbers move in our favor pretty quickly since it's 20% for each person. If we were to get 2-3 people in there and keep moving them in, we could be looking at at a handful of identifications happening.

But then there's the problem of them randomly escaping like Pass.

Sigh.

but you aren't factoring in the time it takes to get 3 people in jail! and even then, it is 3 20% chances to hit!

Do you play poker?

How many times have you had 44 and your opponent had AA, thats the odds we have here of the king hitting.
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:59 PM   #781
Telle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
Day 2 Vote Count:

Abe/Clap Jail - 6 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Abe/Clap Lynch - 3 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560), BK (698)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
Pass Jail - 2 - Tyrith (718), Autumn (770)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)
Telle Jail - 1 - Danny (736)


Yet to Vote: Pass, Render

That's 5 for Abe/Clab Jail, not 6
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:59 PM   #782
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
This vote is not valid.

can you at least tell me why?
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Old 06-09-2009, 09:59 PM   #783
RendeR
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Vote Jail PASSACAGLIA
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:00 PM   #784
Telle
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
can you at least tell me why?

Probably because you didn't unvote Barkeep jail.
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:00 PM   #785
RendeR
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had to get that in, not sure it as gonna make a difference though, I'm fine with the abe vote working.
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:00 PM   #786
KWhit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I would be willing to lynch KWhit based on what I perceive as him selling faulty logic that he should no bettert hen

Expand on this, as I think I have been completely logical and striving to do what was clearly best for the village (based on what we knew of the rules).
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:01 PM   #787
Autumn
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no, never mind

unvote pass for jail
vote abe (clap) to jail
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:01 PM   #788
Danny
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Pass was freed and didn't even bother being here for it. The whole thing seems odd. I'm still not sure what to make of it.
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:01 PM   #789
Danny
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
no, never mind

unvote pass for jail
vote abe (clap) to jail

Two minutes too late
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:01 PM   #790
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
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I'm not sure what the heck is going on, but I guess it's possible clap flaked out and the wolves told him to get in here and get out of the lynch. Best to have him in jail (abe) and see.
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:02 PM   #791
Danny
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The amount of people here with no movement bodes well for this being villager/villager.
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:02 PM   #792
KWhit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
but you aren't factoring in the time it takes to get 3 people in jail! and even then, it is 3 20% chances to hit!

Do you play poker?

How many times have you had 44 and your opponent had AA, thats the odds we have here of the king hitting.

But if you have 3 people with that hand, the odds are that one of them will beat AA.

And early on in the game we're more likely to be lynching villagers than we are wolves.
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:02 PM   #793
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
Expand on this, as I think I have been completely logical and striving to do what was clearly best for the village (based on what we knew of the rules).

you keep harping on building a CoT by sending people to jail, I am saying that will take way to long, not sure why you don't get that
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:02 PM   #794
dubb93
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Day 2 Final Vote Count:

Abe/Clap Jail - 5 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Abe/Clap Lynch - 3 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560), BK (698)
Pass Jail - 3 - Tyrith (718), Autumn (770), RendeR (783)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)
Telle Jail - 1 - Danny (736)


Did Not Vote: Pass
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Originally Posted by McSweeny
Because you know it takes sound strategy to get killed repeatedly on day one right?
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:03 PM   #795
Tyrith
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
The amount of people here with no movement bodes well for this being villager/villager.

One side is clap. The other side is who, pass?
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:03 PM   #796
Autumn
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damn. I've been here all day and it was like a ghost town, then you guys posted like three pages while I talked to my wife, sheesh.
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:03 PM   #797
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
But if you have 3 people with that hand, the odds are that one of them will beat AA.

And early on in the game we're more likely to be lynching villagers than we are wolves.

I get that, but it will be day 4 by the time we get to that point. And then what, maybe 1 person is cleared?
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:03 PM   #798
Danny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
you keep harping on building a CoT by sending people to jail, I am saying that will take way to long, not sure why you don't get that

It will definitely take far too long while the wolves pick us out with their night kills. The jail needs to be an extra bonus we can use and maybe get lucky on, but lynch needs to be the foundation for our play.
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:04 PM   #799
Danny
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrith View Post
One side is clap. The other side is who, pass?

Barkeep, I don't know what to make of Pass yet.
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:04 PM   #800
Danny
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BTW, if it was any other player who said the things Clap said, he would have had 10 lynch votes.
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