WW LXXXVII Terror at the University :Game over, Wolves win! - Page 9

Telle · 01-09-2009, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

woo hoo im #12!

Evidently they think our dorm room is the pit of hell

hoopsguy · 01-09-2009, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

woo hoo im #12!

Not to quibble, but it was #14

Danny · 01-09-2009, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Of course Danny is interested, seeing as how he is the most trusted person on JE's list

Per JE, here were his trust levels:
Trust Level 1
Me
Danny

Level 2
Heinze

Level 3
You
DT
Abe
Jeff
Barkeep
CR
RPI

Level 4
Gramm
Jackal

Level 5
Telle
Hannibal

That's a good list, I'm assuming Gramm is there because he failed to get in a tie breaking vote. And the Jackal because EF was oriignally reluctant to switch his vote to the Jackal. Still, he did, when he could have put it in on Gramm, I think it's quite possible one of the two is a wolf. Right now I tend to have Telle pinged as the third. Generally I've learned that when I think Clap/Hannibal does something wolfish, it usually means he is a villager

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Of course Danny is interested, seeing as how he is the most trusted person on JE's list

Per JE, here were his trust levels:
Trust Level 1
Me
Danny

Level 2
Heinze

Level 3
You
DT
Abe
Jeff
Barkeep
CR
RPI

Level 4
Gramm
Jackal

Level 5
Telle
Hannibal

No offense hoops, but how do we know that's JE's list?

Or put another way, did he give any reasons in particular as to why he trusted you or did he fall into the trap of "I'll trust him since the mod gave me the handy-dandy ability to PM him and I like PM'ing people in WW games so I'll use that completely illogical reverse logic to make myself believe that I do actually trust the person I'm PM'ing"

Danny · 01-09-2009, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

One of the people that we had talked about was Heinz. Prior to him sending his list, I had commented that I thought he was one of the people who came out the best from D1. Not only because he voted for Eaglefan, but because he came after him aggressively and did not back down from it later when he would have had an opportunity to do so.

This I strongly agree with, I definitely do not see a wolf doing what he did day 1.

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

One of the people that we had talked about was Heinz. Prior to him sending his list, I had commented that I thought he was one of the people who came out the best from D1. Not only because he voted for Eaglefan, but because he came after him aggressively and did not back down from it later when he would have had an opportunity to do so.

Well that tempers my previous post a bit.

Yeah, I think I earned some props. Even if people want to go down the road of "Wolf picking at another wolf" I think I took it well beyond the line of reason for that and hell, if it that was the case, IMO my agression helped hand the village a wolf big-time.

Telle · 01-09-2009, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

No offense hoops, but how do we know that's JE's list?

Or put another way, did he give any reasons in particular as to why he trusted you or did he fall into the trap of "I'll trust him since the mod gave me the handy-dandy ability to PM him and I like PM'ing people in WW games so I'll use that completely illogical reverse logic to make myself believe that I do actually trust the person I'm PM'ing"

I'd think Level 3, since it's in the middle, is the "I neither trust nor distrust" category.

Danny · 01-09-2009, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

No offense hoops, but how do we know that's JE's list?

Or put another way, did he give any reasons in particular as to why he trusted you or did he fall into the trap of "I'll trust him since the mod gave me the handy-dandy ability to PM him and I like PM'ing people in WW games so I'll use that completely illogical reverse logic to make myself believe that I do actually trust the person I'm PM'ing"

I think ME is referring to himself and YOU to Hoopsguy, so Hoops was right there lumped in with everyone else with average trust.

hoopsguy · 01-09-2009, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

Evidently they think our dorm room is the pit of hell

That is not my list (not "they" but "Jonathan") but there are not a huge number of differences between what he published and the slottings that I had for people.

If it turns out that Jackal is a villager, then I would be surprised if there is not a wolf (or janitor) coming out of your dorm room.

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

I'd think Level 3, since it's in the middle, is the "I neither trust nor distrust" category.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I think ME is referring to himself and YOU to Hoopsguy, so Hoops was right there lumped in with everyone else with average trust.

Yeah I 100% read that wrong. I read Me as Hoops and frankly, didn't even notice that the "You" existed.

Carry on!

Grammaticus · 01-09-2009, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Jonathan was the president, so no more duke, at least it wasn't the seer.

I wonder why he didnt duke somebody on the tie.

DaddyTorgo · 01-09-2009, 01:35 PM

I guess maybe we'll see if Jackel is a villager soon.

hoopsguy · 01-09-2009, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

No offense hoops, but how do we know that's JE's list?

Or put another way, did he give any reasons in particular as to why he trusted you or did he fall into the trap of "I'll trust him since the mod gave me the handy-dandy ability to PM him and I like PM'ing people in WW games so I'll use that completely illogical reverse logic to make myself believe that I do actually trust the person I'm PM'ing"

I do not know if there were sub-rankings within his groups, but I fell in Level 3 behind you and Danny.

I guess you don't know if it was my list, but the formatting is different than anything I think I've ever put together on FOFC/OS in a WW game. Beyond that, what would it really accomplish for me to bluff at this?

DaddyTorgo · 01-09-2009, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I do not know if there were sub-rankings within his groups, but I fell in Level 3 behind you and Danny.

I guess you don't know if it was my list, but the formatting is different than anything I think I've ever put together on FOFC/OS in a WW game. Beyond that, what would it really accomplish for me to bluff at this?

because you're a colossal squid?

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I do not know if there were sub-rankings within his groups, but I fell in Level 3 behind you and Danny.

I guess you don't know if it was my list, but the formatting is different than anything I think I've ever put together on FOFC/OS in a WW game. Beyond that, what would it really accomplish for me to bluff at this?

No no, given now that I realize I had just mis-read it (specifically where you fell on his list) then I'm now 100% inclined to believe that's his list.

My bad about that, just read too fast for my own good.

Danny · 01-09-2009, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

I wonder why he didnt duke somebody on the tie.

He probably should have, but maybe he thought Gramm was going to vote or someone else switch.

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I guess maybe we'll see if Jackel is a villager soon.

Really?

I can't say I'm all that inclined to look Jackal's way today. There is what, maybe a 3% chance (assuming 3 wolves) that we were wolf/wolf yesterday?

hoopsguy · 01-09-2009, 01:42 PM

Well, I guess there is that. I was hoping it would not come up, because I do not know how to refute that notion.

Maybe I could resort to something like having the Colossal Squid post on this site with his Facebook page, which is clearly different than my Facebook page? Oh, wait ...

hoopsguy · 01-09-2009, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Really?

I can't say I'm all that inclined to look Jackal's way today. There is what, maybe a 3% chance (assuming 3 wolves) that we were wolf/wolf yesterday?

Well, once EF is a wolf that makes the chances about 18% that Jackal was also a wolf.

I'm operating under the assumption that he is a villager. It makes it easier for me to come up with conclusions from the D1 vote. But if Jackal is still alive on D4/D5 I hope people are not blindly subscribing to this idea.

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, once EF is a wolf that makes the chances about 18% that Jackal was also a wolf.

I'm operating under the assumption that he is a villager. It makes it easier for me to come up with conclusions from the D1 vote. But if Jackal is still alive on D4/D5 I hope people are not blindly subscribing to this idea.

Agreed. I guess yeah, a better put way of my opinion of Jackal is that he's not today's problem really.

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 01:52 PM

Anyone remember who was around in-thread post-EF-reveal, was voting for EF already (or not for Jackal let's say) and didn't change their vote?

Hannibal Lecter · 01-09-2009, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Not to quibble, but it was #14

im not a math major! im here studying cooking

Hannibal Lecter · 01-09-2009, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

That's a good list, I'm assuming Gramm is there because he failed to get in a tie breaking vote. And the Jackal because EF was oriignally reluctant to switch his vote to the Jackal. Still, he did, when he could have put it in on Gramm, I think it's quite possible one of the two is a wolf. Right now I tend to have Telle pinged as the third. Generally I've learned that when I think Clap/Hannibal does something wolfish, it usually means he is a villager

ive noticed that... when i try to be helpful i fail!

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Anyone remember who was around in-thread post-EF-reveal, was voting for EF already (or not for Jackal let's say) and didn't change their vote?

Looks like going off posts, this only applies to Jeff.

So +1 for jeff on my trust list. He could've easily flipped if he's a wolf akin to what Hannibal did and chalked it up to believing the reveal.

The Jackal · 01-09-2009, 01:56 PM

I am most certainly a villager. I have not found anything overly suspicious with my roomates, though I understand the 3-person pool being likely to have a wolf argument.

I suppose what I can say about myself is that if I was a wolf, why would I have put that vote on EF when I could have easily put it on Gram or anyone else?

Hannibal Lecter · 01-09-2009, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

I wonder why he didnt duke somebody on the tie.

was he around at deadline?

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 01:58 PM

I don't see the harm in starting things off

Vote Barkeep49

Danny · 01-09-2009, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Anyone remember who was around in-thread post-EF-reveal, was voting for EF already (or not for Jackal let's say) and didn't change their vote?

I was around, Hannibal, Jets, Jonathan, and Gramm (on his phone). Not many, thankfully I was, so I could switch my guard order.

jeff061 · 01-09-2009, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Looks like going off posts, this only applies to Jeff.

So +1 for jeff on my trust list. He could've easily flipped if he's a wolf akin to what Hannibal did and chalked it up to believing the reveal.

To to toot my horn here, but I was pretty adamant about his guilt as well

. I was just beaten to the punch, but I was planning on voting after I saw his first post.

That said we have time and no really obvious choices, when I get a chance I'll try to go over and read this discussion more to form an opinion for the next vote. I'm leaning very slightly towards Telle, but nothing major.

Danny · 01-09-2009, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

was he around at deadline?

Yes

jeff061 · 01-09-2009, 02:01 PM

As far as the numbers being played on the chances of one room having a wolf, does it really matter a whole hell of a lot?

When it comes to voting its mostly an arbitrary grouping, why focus on those three over any other randomly picked group of three.

Danny · 01-09-2009, 02:09 PM

And everything was random, as an aggregate percentage it may not be likely that roommates or dual vote getters are both wolves, but each one individually still has just as much chance of being a wolf as anyone else.

DaddyTorgo · 01-09-2009, 02:14 PM

wait - is hannibal=clap?

Danny · 01-09-2009, 02:14 PM

Hannibal Lecter · 01-09-2009, 02:17 PM

um, yeah

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 02:17 PM

Pulling this up, shrinking the deceased or very very trusted

6 - EagleFan - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86), jeff061 (109), The Jackal (135), DT (189), Hoops (196)
6 - The Jackel - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103), Telle (147), EF (164), Danny (194) Hannibal (229)
1 - Grammaticus - RPI-Fan (51),
1 - Danny - Chief Rum (46)
no vote - Gramm

I'm not inclined to vote for anyone who voted for EF. Each vote was a "good" vote in terms of being at a pretty crucial time in the vote or early enough that it could've easily been switched to Jackal if they were a wolf.

That gives me a pool of

BK
Telle
Hannibal
RPI
CR
Gramm

As I've said before, I'm casting an eye towards Telle, but I can see a good honest villager motivation for her vote. Hannibal just seems too damn obvious. You'd have to be a Grade A dumbass wolf to switch there. CR I give a pass to as he stated his vote was locked from the get-go.

That leaves Gramm, RPI, BK.

I'm less inclined to vote Gramm. I just don't think it was that we had 2 outta 3 there. And if we did, and was on, wouldn't he just vote Jackal?

RPI or BK. I don't recall either being around much while I was on yesterday (I think I got 1-2 PM's from RPI all day). I hate to look like I'm favoring my roomate, I'm really not, because BK was there near the end and didn't change his vote when he's good enough to know that was a transparent wolf reveal by EF.

DaddyTorgo · 01-09-2009, 02:18 PM

i took a hiatus, no way for me to know that. interesting...

Hannibal Lecter · 01-09-2009, 02:22 PM

Hannibal has only played like 3 games... I created the name for the Halloween game, and after 2 weeks of trying to get it activated, I decided id keep it for a while!

RPI-Fan · 01-09-2009, 02:24 PM

What is the next deadline?

DaddyTorgo · 01-09-2009, 02:26 PM

You make a convincing case against BK there heinzy...but you're also a magnificent liar...

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 02:30 PM

Indeed. That I am. I honestly don't know if BK is a wolf or not, but that's how I see it. My early vote is a little self-serving. I'll be gone in an hour or two and not back until Monday morning. So rather than wait, I'd rather put my vote out now and get feedback on what people think. I could be way off and someone else sees it differently, who knows.

DaddyTorgo · 01-09-2009, 02:41 PM

it does sound interesting from my POV, I must confess. But perhaps BK had his reasons. We'll have to see. I think that there's maybe a 60-70% chance that that is where my vote will end up. Pending commentary from him of course.

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 02:43 PM

Yeah, and I'd definitely want to hear from him as well, no doubt

hoopsguy · 01-09-2009, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061

To to toot my horn here, but I was pretty adamant about his guilt as well

. I was just beaten to the punch, but I was planning on voting after I saw his first post.

That said we have time and no really obvious choices, when I get a chance I'll try to go over and read this discussion more to form an opinion for the next vote. I'm leaning very slightly towards Telle, but nothing major.

This was one of the points I had mentioned to Jonathan, that your 3rd vote made it 3-1. At that point it was, more or less, a foregone conclusion that Eaglefan was going to be considered for the remainder of the day, rather than being a guy who falls away from the top of the pack.

hoopsguy · 01-09-2009, 03:07 PM

Quote:

I'm less inclined to vote Gramm. I just don't think it was that we had 2 outta 3 there. And if we did, and was on, wouldn't he just vote Jackal?

This was the person where I most disagreed with Jonathan on slotting. If Gramm = wolf he had the opportunity to:
1.) Look good with hanging vote on wolf
2.) Save a wolf for a day

Instead, he did neither. And is getting some attention for that, when not voting was clearly his worst action as a wolf. I have him fairly close to the top of the guys that I trust.

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 03:12 PM

Yeah I mean if he was on (which I'm assuming is true, I wasn't here, but he was in someones rundown) then his lack of any vote falls under the same stupidity waiver clause that clap's late switch does.

Though I doth detest people who don't vote.

hoopsguy · 01-09-2009, 03:13 PM

I actually think it differs substantially from Claps.
- Clap only tied the vote, Gramm could have swung it
- Gramm took the least optimal wolf action, Clap took one of two defensible wolf actions

jeheinz72 · 01-09-2009, 03:32 PM

In execution use. In potential wolf idiocy, no. Both avenues would be pretty bad plays as a wolf, IMO.

Abe Sargent · 01-09-2009, 06:04 PM

I just got back from training for a deadline only to find it already ran;(

Yay killin' a wolf.

I told you you play those odds on Day One with a Seer reveal. We had a 75% or 80% chance he was a wolf or cultist, and you rarely get odds that good in this game, so you takes them when you can get them.

Grammaticus · 01-09-2009, 11:48 PM

So hoops, any idea why Claps chared his list with you in private versus in the thread? Not really putting any suspicion on you. Your pretty chatty in general and I am sure you would chat it up with any PM scenario allowed.

Just in all honesty, since this list is his and did not get posted from him, it really doesn't hold much weight.

01-09-2009, 02:01 PM	#431
jeff061 Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: MA	As far as the numbers being played on the chances of one room having a wolf, does it really matter a whole hell of a lot? When it comes to voting its mostly an arbitrary grouping, why focus on those three over any other randomly picked group of three. __________________

01-09-2009, 02:24 PM	#439
RPI-Fan Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Troy, NY	What is the next deadline? __________________ Quis custodiets ipsos custodes?

01-09-2009, 06:04 PM	#449
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	I just got back from training for a deadline only to find it already ran;( Yay killin' a wolf. I told you you play those odds on Day One with a Seer reveal. We had a 75% or 80% chance he was a wolf or cultist, and you rarely get odds that good in this game, so you takes them when you can get them. __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

01-09-2009, 01:35 PM	#412
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	I guess maybe we'll see if Jackel is a villager soon.

01-09-2009, 01:42 PM	#418
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Well, I guess there is that. I was hoping it would not come up, because I do not know how to refute that notion. Maybe I could resort to something like having the Colossal Squid post on this site with his Facebook page, which is clearly different than my Facebook page? Oh, wait ...

01-09-2009, 01:56 PM	#425
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I am most certainly a villager. I have not found anything overly suspicious with my roomates, though I understand the 3-person pool being likely to have a wolf argument. I suppose what I can say about myself is that if I was a wolf, why would I have put that vote on EF when I could have easily put it on Gram or anyone else?

01-09-2009, 02:09 PM	#432
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	And everything was random, as an aggregate percentage it may not be likely that roommates or dual vote getters are both wolves, but each one individually still has just as much chance of being a wolf as anyone else.

01-09-2009, 02:14 PM	#433
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	wait - is hannibal=clap?

01-09-2009, 02:14 PM	#434
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Yes

01-09-2009, 02:17 PM	#435
Hannibal Lecter High School JV Join Date: Oct 2008	um, yeah

01-09-2009, 02:18 PM	#437
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	i took a hiatus, no way for me to know that. interesting...

01-09-2009, 02:22 PM	#438
Hannibal Lecter High School JV Join Date: Oct 2008	Hannibal has only played like 3 games... I created the name for the Halloween game, and after 2 weeks of trying to get it activated, I decided id keep it for a while!

01-09-2009, 02:26 PM	#440
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	You make a convincing case against BK there heinzy...but you're also a magnificent liar...

01-09-2009, 02:41 PM	#442
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	it does sound interesting from my POV, I must confess. But perhaps BK had his reasons. We'll have to see. I think that there's maybe a 60-70% chance that that is where my vote will end up. Pending commentary from him of course.

01-09-2009, 03:13 PM	#447
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I actually think it differs substantially from Claps. - Clap only tied the vote, Gramm could have swung it - Gramm took the least optimal wolf action, Clap took one of two defensible wolf actions

01-09-2009, 11:48 PM	#450
Grammaticus Pro Rookie Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Tennessee	So hoops, any idea why Claps chared his list with you in private versus in the thread? Not really putting any suspicion on you. Your pretty chatty in general and I am sure you would chat it up with any PM scenario allowed. Just in all honesty, since this list is his and did not get posted from him, it really doesn't hold much weight.

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