License Plate Geography Puzzle/Musings

[albionmoonlight]

I guess sort of a puzzle, but not really because I cannot think of a way to find the real answer. Maybe more of an interesting thought experiment I saw on twitter.

Out of the 48 contiguous states, which state has the highest percentage of out-of-state license plates on its roads at any given time? Which state has the lowest percentage?

I have some thoughts, but I figure I'll see what y'all think before I share them.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I guess sort of a puzzle, but not really because I cannot think of a way to find the real answer. Maybe more of an interesting thought experiment I saw on twitter.

Out of the 48 contiguous states, which state has the highest percentage of out-of-state license plates on its roads at any given time? Which state has the lowest percentage?

I have some thoughts, but I figure I'll see what y'all think before I share them.

My vote for highest out of state is Connecticut. Fewest is Maine.

[stevew]

Highest-Florida
Lowest-California

[bhlloy]

Interested why you think California, there are a ton of Nevada and Arizona plates I see at any given time and as a state with significant tourism and migration it wouldn’t be one of the ones at the top of my mind.

Maybe something like SD would be my suggestion for the lowest. Or Alaska, although I’m not sure if that’s cheating. EDIT - yeah, just saw the question was contiguous. So scratch that then.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Interested why you think California

Pretty sure I get his reasoning here: California has more registered cars than any two other states combined. (Texas & Florida combine to just barely pass them if you count trucks, buses, etc) And more than triples any state other than those two.

That would give them a heavy edge on percentages.

[digamma]

Delaware is probably my hands down guess for highest percentage. Small state. Huge interstate with commuters from NY/NJ/PA/MD/DC/VA.

Lowest percentage is trickier. California is a good guess based on the reasoning laid out above. The other way to go there would be somewhere without many interstate highways, but decent sized cities. Minnesota/Michigan could be decent guesses. Or you could go the east bumble reasoning with Maine or Montana.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Pretty sure I get his reasoning here: California has more registered cars than any two other states combined. (Texas & Florida combine to just barely pass them if you count trucks, buses, etc) And more than triples any state other than those two.

That would give them a heavy edge on percentages.

That’s why I took ct over Florida. Fewer residents but that i95 corridor is so heavily travelled.

[Ryche]

I could see Florida having highest between tourists and snowbirds. It's not a state, but DC probably blows the rest away.

I would actually guess Washington for fewest as it's in a corner and tourists are less likely to drive there than to Maine.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Interested why you think California, there are a ton of Nevada and Arizona plates I see at any given time and as a state with significant tourism and migration it wouldn’t be one of the ones at the top of my mind.

Maybe something like SD would be my suggestion for the lowest. Or Alaska, although I’m not sure if that’s cheating. EDIT - yeah, just saw the question was contiguous. So scratch that then.

Yeah what Jon said. So many cars

[EagleFan]

Highest: Delaware
Lowest: California

[Radii]

I instantly thought northeast for the highest, low populations and lots of daily travel between some states, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware all three, but I feel like Delaware probably wins out, lower population than Connecticut and the argument about highway travel seems to give it a big edge over Rhode Island.


Lowest does seem real hard. I think I'd rule out Montana because of a very low population + tourism for the national parks there. Do we count Canadian plates? If so I'm definitely ruling out Maine. If not I probably am anyway, there's a ridiculous number of border crossings in maine and I'm expecting enough commercial traffic crossing the border there, again plus the low population, that I think that's not.

Someone had mentioned Michigan, Detroit is pretty close to other states borders and has a few crossings into canada. Anyone from a number of states in the central US with reason to visit Ontario is going through Michigan. I visit Ontario about once a month currently and every time I cross the Ambassador Bridge in Detroit I see 10-25 trucks depending on the time of day. It seems constant.

I guess I'm going to piggyback the California logic and say that.


Highest: Delaware
Lowest: California

[ColtCrazy]

I would agree with Delaware being the highest, being geographically between major population areas. I can't argue too much against California, but I might guess Vermont would have a lower percentage. There's a natural barrier that prevents much east-west traffic, and there are faster ways to go between the US and Canada. This summer, I noticed very few non-Vermont license plates while we were there, and the ones that were not from Vermont were mostly Ontario, which technically doesn't count

[CarterNMA]

I'm making a cross-country trek so I'll be able to provide some anecdotal feedback about what I see.

Delaware is a very good choice for the reasons sited but also down in Dover you have a large Air Force base which will have a lot of out-of-state plates associated with it. And Marylanders passing through on their way to the beaches.

Maryland and Virginia are also good choices for the same reasons but with their western counties, percentages will drop compared to CT and DE.

West Virginia is a good candidate for lowest. No heavily traveled interstates, foreboding geography, not touristy, etc. It's almost like people not from there avoid it...

[albionmoonlight]

For highest percentage, I'd agree with the Delaware folks. I was down to Delaware or Maryland. The part of Maryland by D.C. will have a lot of Virginia and DC plates at any given time, even if just on the beltline. Plus, that area will get some plates from D.C. tourists. And it also will have the I-95 traffic going back and forth from NYC to the Southeast. But Maryland is also pretty well populated, so I am wondering if, percentage-wise, that keeps it from being the most.

Delaware and its toll roads are famously between NY/NJ and DC and the rest of the Southeast. And it is not a hugely populated state. So that's my guess for now.

As for least, I wonder how much might be season dependent. Maine might take it in Winter (though someone above noted that it gets some constant traffic for being a border state and the natural route for import/exports to Canada to New England). I am sure that the number of Boston/New Hampshire tourists in the Summer would tip it out of the lowest spot for that season considering its low population.

I totally see the logic of California, but driving down the Pacific coast seems like a pretty popular vacation for people, so you will still have a lot of out of state plates there.

What about Texas (Mrs. A's guess)? You have the large native population. And, yeah, you get a lot of tourists, but I imagine that a lot of those fly in and rent a car. Texas is just so freaking big that it almost does not make sense to drive into it from the outside unless you are going right across the border.

So it is big (but not as big as California). And while it gets a lot of tourists, a lot of them won't have their own cars.

[tarcone]

Most is Florida

Least is North Dakota

[B & B]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Most is Florida

Least is North Dakota

after giving some thought to this and not looking at any responses

this is exactly what I came up with.

[Ryche]

Two things with North Dakota. Lots of oil workers from out of state (and lots of trucks moving that oil) and Fargo has a major suburb in Minnesota.

[QuikSand]

Dang, I missed a good forum puzzle. They're rare anymore.

Logic for DE sounds solid, though FL was my first thought.

Lowest seems like it would be a non-touristy, geographically large state, so ND or MT seem like solid candidates.

So, nothing much to add here.


* - side note... states vary a lot with their laws forcing/encouraging you to register your car in-state upon moving there...it's possible this is a subtle factor here, too. You might get away with living in OH for 3 years with your PA tags, while IN might force you to re-title your car within 5 months, or something like that. If we had that info, it might help sort out the "some big state" question, frex.

[MrBug708]

The Grand Canyon is a smorgasbord of every state imaginable.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Two things with North Dakota. Lots of oil workers from out of state (and lots of trucks moving that oil) and Fargo has a major suburb in Minnesota.

Yup yup. Regionally, they're onto something, though. You have to think about which Plains states have tourism attractions (Yellowstone, Badlands, etc.) and how people get to those. But I'd suspect that somewhere in the region cornered by Idaho, North Dakota, Kansas, and Utah, you'd find the answer.

[albionmoonlight]

ND is out for the reasons given above re: Fargo.

But MT might deserve a second look. I can't imagine that there's a ton of traffic passing through East/West in the way that you might have with states further south. And no major cities seem to be on its border. It contains part of Yellowstone, but most of the park in in Wyoming. And, like my thoughts about Texas, it seems so physically large that people visiting it might be much more likely to fly in and rent a car than drive in.

[spleen1015]

Any state with a large military installation.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Any state with a large military installation.

Delaware will actually gain from this, Dover AFB is a semi-major facility.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Delaware will actually gain from this, Dover AFB is a semi-major facility.

Yep. I was born on Dover AFB.

[albionmoonlight]

So I was actually googling around to see if anyone had actually put any research into this. And I found that there's a Montana License Plate Scam:

hxxps://jalopnik.com/the-pitfalls-of-the-montana-license-plate-scam-1711216059

So that's what I learned today.

(link hxxp'd because it's one of those board breaking links)

[tarcone]

My wifes Aunt had South Dakota plates for tax reasons. They lived in Missouri and Florida. I guess no taxes to be paid on anything.