What's the ideal strategy for this playoff football pool?

[Maple Leafs]

NFL playoff pools are fairly common, and in general we know the basic strategy: pick a team or two from each conference, load up on those players, and hope for a Superbowl matchup that gives you as many players as possible. If you can get a wildcard weekend team that plays four games instead of three, even better.

This one (from the very good Footballguys.com website that I'd be willing to bet a lot of you already use) has a bit of a twist to is. To be clear, I'm not looking for help with filling out an actual roster for the pool. I'm more interested in the game theory behind how to approach it

The rules:

1. This is a survivor-style contest. After the first weekend, we cut to 4000. After the second weekend, 2000. After the third weekend, 1000. Scores reset each round. The Winner will be determined by points scored in the Super Bowl.
2. In the elimination rounds (i.e. all but the Super Bowl), only your two highest scoring players from each NFL team count toward your score. In the Super Bowl, all points from all players count.
3. Aside from the cap, there are no roster limits or positional requirements at all. Take only five players, or take 40. Take all QBs, or take none. It's up to you.
4. Except as noted in the scoring system (TEs, WRs, and RBs get different numbers of points per reception), positions are irrelevant in all rounds. Positions play no role in determining which players' scores count.

The cap is $250, and player values range from $40 (Le'Veon Bell) down to $2 or $3 for any number of guys who don't play much.

Obviously you still do the "focus on a few teams" thing, but beyond that, how do you pay this? Remember, you're trying to beat a few thousand people, so it's not like just getting Tom Brady and Ezekiel Elliott is going to make you the favorite.

The key wrinkle is that you can have as many or as few players as you want. Do you load up on a handful of elite guys, or sprinkle around as many lottery tickets as you can get? Do you even bother with kickers or defenses? I feel like smart people should be able to figure this out but I'm lost.

[QuikSand]

My thinking so far:

-focus on teams you believe will get two games
-make an implied "bet" on a couple of them to win three and go heavy
-only go deeper than 3 on a strong SB "bet" team
-use liberal sprinkle-in guys elsewhere after you are done with foundation players

I think the lat part might be key - use guys like Albert Wilson and Char West and the Miami and Detroit defenses (to name a few candidates), even if you expect those teams to one-and-out.

[QuikSand]

Here's a stab at it, which I suspect I will tweak to death:

QB - Matt Ryan - ATL - $25
QB - Brock Osweiler - HOU - $17
QB - Eli Manning - NYG - $17
RB - Thomas Rawls - SEA - $13
RB - Jay Ajayi - MIA - $11
RB - Charcandrick West - KC - $3
WR - Odell Beckham Jr - NYG - $19
WR - Julio Jones - ATL - $18
WR - Will Fuller - HOU - $6
WR - Randall Cobb - GB - $5
WR - Sammie Coates - PIT - $4
WR - Seth Roberts - OAK - $4
WR - Brice Butler - DAL - $3
WR - Albert Wilson - KC - $2
TE - Jimmy Graham - SEA - $15
TE - Martellus Bennett - NE - $13
TE - C.J. Fiedorowicz - HOU - $8
TE - Austin Hooper - ATL - $4
TE - Jesse James - PIT - $4
TE - Richard Rodgers - GB - $3
TE - Levine Toilolo - ATL - $2
PK - Robbie Gould - NYG - $8
PK - Nick Novak - HOU - $8
PK - Andrew Franks - MIA - $5
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL - $10
TD - Houston Texans - HOU - $10
TD - New York Giants - NYG - $8
TD - Miami Dolphins - MIA - $5

Total value: 250

[QuikSand]

Stacks with PIT, GB, or NYG seem like the best chance to break the bank here (which I didn't really do above).

[Maple Leafs]

Ha... my first attempt had roughly half as many guys, maybe fewer. Back to the drawing board!

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Stacks with PIT, GB, or NYG seem like the best chance to break the bank here (which I didn't really do above).

Yeah, at first glance seems like you have too many players from too many teams including a couple borderline guys who have a good chance to only play one game. Reckon a much better strategy is to pick a few teams you are really confident will play 3 games and just load up. If you can have multiple entries and have some lineups with different stacks, that seems to be the best approach

[stevew]

Seems like choosing 2 per conference with your main guys would be a good strategy. So perhaps NE/Pitts in the AFC and something like Dal/Sea in the NFC since they can't play each other until the conference finals. So maybe Brown/Bell/Brady/NE Def/Elliott/Whitten/Wilson/SEA Def and then with whatever is left take fliers on cheap guys and down roster guys like kickers, etc.

Also since there is a cut after each round and not cumulative scoring seems like you'd want as many guys from WC teams as possible. Like 2 per team, even if they're fliers.

[bhlloy]

Good call on the cut down, didn't think about that. So guys on a WC team with a decent shot at making it at least to the conference championship game are gold.

[QuikSand]

By the way, I love the concept here. So great.

[QuikSand]

Not sure how many entries will get cut to 4,000 from the first weekend, but one way to avoid that might be to have at least a couple kickers (nearly sure things for some points) active, right? The kickers from PIT and SEA might be the best percentage plays for that purposes, I'd think.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Ha... my first attempt had roughly half as many guys, maybe fewer. Back to the drawing board!

Not so fast, my friend. Very easy to see a certain stack (like Ben/Brown) becoming the dominant play, and a must-have. Unless it's the much cheaper Eli/OBJ or Ryan/Jones my entry is screwed. I basically ignored running backs...what if Blount has a 4TD game? Should I have put all my 2-3-4 dollar guys together to buy, oh idano, -anyone- from the damned Pats?

I think there are many ways to play this.

Mine above is just a swing-for-the-fences stab at an overt entry where Miami beats Pitt, and Atlanta or NYG goes to the SB. It has no chance unless that happens, I'd think.

[panerd]

I think the play is definitely heavy on Giants just because I think the majority of people are on the Packers and I look at it as a 50/50 game. Obviously the Giants losing puts you out but otherwise you are looking good with them. I also agree with Quiksand on the kickers. Think you might want all 12. Consistent points, sometimes more points than someone you spend $20-30. In season long fantasy they are pretty interchangeable and worthless but I think they get priced wrong in postseason fantasy. (A four game Robbie Gould will outplay all 1 game skill players)

[QuikSand]

Yeah, really warming up to kicker-heavy. Might move to include 5-6 of them.

[QuikSand]

Entered now with 6 K and 5 DST. *shurg*

[Maple Leafs]

Still feel like we're not being aggressive enough in terms of winning the final. Obviously you need to make it, but you're going to be facing 1,000 players in the final. Can you win that (or finish high enough to get worthwhile money) without loading up as much as possible on two teams and hoping you get that exact matchup?

[QuikSand]

prolly not, no

[QuikSand]

FYI, my entry is still alive, but our hopes of winning probably reside now in some sort of absurd Houston-Atlanta kick-a-thon superbowl.

This entry is still alive.

                                   18  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seth Roberts              $4      1.10 

Lamar Miller             $15     13.30 
Will Fuller               $6      7.70 
C.J. Fiedorowicz          $8      6.50 
Nick Novak                $8     13.00 
Houston Texans           $10      9.00 

Jay Ajayi                $11      6.00 
Andrew Franks             $5      9.00 
Miami Dolphins            $5      5.00 


Matt Prater               $5     12.00 

Jimmy Graham             $15      8.20 

Eli Manning              $17     21.05 
Odell Beckham Jr         $19      6.80 
Robbie Gould              $8      9.00 
New York Giants           $8      5.00 

Randall Cobb              $5     34.60 
Richard Rodgers           $3      0.00 

Charcandrick West         $3      0.00 
Albert Wilson             $2      0.00 
Kansas City Chiefs       $10      0.00 

Stephen Gostkowski       $15      0.00 

Matt Ryan                $25      0.00 
Julio Jones              $18      0.00 
Austin Hooper             $4      0.00 
Atlanta Falcons          $10      0.00 

Dan Bailey               $11      0.00 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL                           127.25 
CUTOFF                           91.90 

[QuikSand]

I suspect my team will advance past week two, but now I'm left rooting for...what, I guess a deep run by the Chiefs powered by Charcandirck West?

Looking back... I wonder if the right strategy (to WIN against a huge field) was basically load up on two SB teams and fill in with nothing but kickers to get you to the final matchup?

[Maple Leafs]

In the end, I went with my traditional strategy of quickly making an initial lineup, intending to come back to it with revisions, and then forgetting to do that.

This entry is still alive.

                                   18  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ben Roethlisberger       $36     20.85 
DeAngelo Williams         $5      0.20 
Eli Rogers               $13      2.90 


Russell Wilson           $29     22.90 
Thomas Rawls             $13     22.70 
Doug Baldwin             $20     28.00 
Jimmy Graham             $15      8.20 


Aaron Rodgers            $33     42.10 
Ty Montgomery            $18      9.80 

Alex Smith               $17      0.00 
Spencer Ware             $17      0.00 
Charcandrick West         $3      0.00 
Tyreek Hill              $12      0.00 
Chris Conley              $4      0.00 
Travis Kelce             $15      0.00 

In theory I might make it through the week but clearly the Seahawks loss means I'm done.

[BishopMVP]

How many initial entries were there? Bit late to the thread, but with the cut to 4000 after Wild Card weekend, it seems how many players you could take from bye teams you think have a great chance to make the Super Bowl (a.k.a. like this year's Patriots), depends heavily on what % of entries survive WC weekend. If it's more than 8k entries you probably had to pick those kickers & a potential SB WC team like the Steelers, Packers or Giants, but if the initial entries were less than 8k I could see that strategy overplayed & a heavy bet on Bye teams with just enough to sneak in under the 4k cutoff the smarter play.

[QuikSand]

Looks like there were 6284 total entries. Knowing that (in retrospect), I agree there's a bias toward top teams that would be lessened, or even reversed, if there had been 12,000 or 20,000.

[QuikSand]

So, I'm still alive into this weekend. Got my requisite tingle from getting real points out of a couple of my tiny-dollar guys (this week Richard Rodgers and Albert Wilson, even setting aside Randall "Tex" Cobb).

But, I am down to a bunch of Falcons and basically Gostkowski. What's my actual path to a prize? Big ATL payday (Ryan/Jones but maybe some from the D to help separate me) and then a Steelerific 6-FG performance from the Patriots to win a low scoring game there? *shurg*

Since the scores reset after each round, it's futile to think now about the "ideal strategy" but once we see who is left in the last round, maybe that will be viable. I love to hindsight stuff like this.

[stevew]

Basically your path to victory seems to be a huge game from ATL this week. And an Austin Hooper 4-5 TD Superbowl.

[TLK]

If this year is like past years, you'll need between 10-13 in the Super Bowl to have a chance. I loaded up on PIT/ATL guys, but didn't have the fire power to make it past the divisional round.

[QuikSand]

I'm definitely warming up to the idea of trying to just barely skate by the first week - maybe using kickers and QBs - in an effort to do exactly what you suggest above: go super heavy on the two teams in a possible matchup. I think my main error was mentally losing track of the "scores reset each round" element - and defaulted to my years-long thinking about maximizing games and so forth.

If I had just dumped the Dolphins (except the kicker) and the Chefs and instead went in heavier on Stillers, I would at least have a non-laughable path to victory here.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by stevew

Basically your path to victory seems to be a huge game from ATL this week. And an Austin Hooper 4-5 TD Superbowl.

Hey there

[QuikSand]

#like

[stevew]

How did you guys end up doing?

[QuikSand]

                                   18     19     20     21  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amari Cooper              $9      3.00   0.00   0.00   0.00 

Will Fuller               $6      7.70   4.60   0.00   0.00 
C.J. Fiedorowicz          $8      6.50  14.10   0.00   0.00 



Golden Tate               $9      5.50   0.00   0.00   0.00 

Thomas Rawls             $13     22.70   3.40   0.00   0.00 


Aaron Rodgers            $33     42.10  30.40  35.95   0.00 
Jared Cook               $10     12.30  25.40  24.30   0.00 


Tom Brady                $34      0.00  24.25  37.10  35.80 
Dion Lewis               $17      0.00  19.40   2.90   3.40 
James White              $11      0.00   8.40   2.30  38.90 
Martellus Bennett        $13      0.00   1.90  10.70  13.70 
Stephen Gostkowski       $15      0.00  12.00  15.00   9.00 

Matt Ryan                $25      0.00  34.60  51.90  26.20 
Tevin Coleman            $15      0.00  15.40  13.90  10.00 
Julio Jones              $18      0.00  18.70  39.00  12.70 
Austin Hooper             $4      0.00   2.50   5.30  13.70 
Atlanta Falcons          $10      0.00   9.00   6.00  15.00 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL                            99.80 174.85 203.25 178.40 
CUTOFF                           91.90 145.40 132.55   0.00

Here's your winner. Predictably, he was all-in on NE/ATL. Rodgers and a smattering were enough to get him to the SB round. I haven't looked in detail at the top tier, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few who either got in with the kicker-heavy approach, or just got lucky with one guy (like Randall Cobb) and then kicked ass in the SB game.

But while I was intrigued by my particular set of Falcons -- this guy had every single player I did and then most of the Patriots too.

So, in the end, it was truly about the structure of the game... ideally you just barely make the cut in the first round because you have loaded up on two teams you need to face off in the final game, which you have to dominate. My approach had ZERO chance because I couldn't win the last round regardless.

[stevew]

Well, should be good evidence for next year. I guess what we've learned is that you need an AFC and NFC team stack for the Super Bowl and enough guys to get you there. Or what Sean said above.

[TLK]

Any thoughts on the season long FBG contest? Loving Mack, Allen and Robbie Anderson at their prices. I always go for the most players I can get...I'm at 26 now before the 1,000 edits I make.

[QuikSand]

Let's play again this year!

Footballguys Postseason Subscriber Contest Rules

So, we agree -- if all you care about is WINNING (rather than surviving), you need to load up on exactly two teams, and then pick wisely enough to survive the early week cutdowns.

No thoughts here yet, but I like this idea enough to continue chatting it up here...

[BishopMVP]

Any link to the player values that's not behind a sub wall? In the AFC I think 2/3 of the Brady/Gronk/Dion Lewis group is a must, and Fournette + Keelan Cole/DeDe Westbrook (maybe both if cheap enough?) would be my play. I'd also be interested to see just how cheap the injured Patriots (Hogan, Burkhead, even Malcolm Mitchell) are and if they're worth a flyer.

NFC has 3 teams playing WC weekend I think have a Super Bowl shot in NO, the Rams, and even Atlanta, so I might load up on those 3 and ignore Minnesota/Philadelphia.

[QuikSand]

A first draft. Was extremely pliable with my NFC "pick" but ended up with MIN for no strong reason. Not sure I'm deep enough in Vikings to be a winner, though, even if I picked the right final matchup and survived the early rounds...

Your team has been successfully entered.

QB - Tom Brady - NE - $36
QB - Case Keenum - MIN - $21
RB - Dion Lewis - NE - $19
RB - Leonard Fournette - JAX - $17
RB - Latavius Murray - MIN - $14
RB - Jerick McKinnon - MIN - $11
WR - Brandin Cooks - NE - $24
WR - Stefon Diggs - MIN - $13
TE - Ed Dickson - CAR - $2
PK - Stephen Gostkowski - NE - $16
PK - Wil Lutz - NO - $13
PK - Matt Bryant - ATL - $8
PK - Graham Gano - CAR - $6
PK - Steve Hauschka - BUF - $5
PK - Ryan Succop - TEN - $5
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO - $13
TD - New England Patriots - NE - $12
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN - $10
TD - Buffalo Bills - BUF - $5

[QuikSand]

(bump)

Incidentally, I looked at using NO, but they are priced pretty high, presumably building in some expectation that they might be the WC week team best suited to run all the way to the Superbowl (with which I sort of agree). So, I started by using Brady and Brees, but then found it really hard to have much else going - the Saints key players are priced very high, including both RBs.

[EagleFan]

lol, didn't see the original date of the thread. Thought your initial picks were insane (Eli, why the hell is he picking Eli?).

[TLK]

Pricing seems steep this year. No good way to do a NO/NE Super Bowl.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Any link to the player values that's not behind a sub wall?

Link: https://imgur.com/a/CFry7

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Link: https://imgur.com/a/CFry7

Thanks. NO does seem overpriced, so I'm going to zag there and bet on the NFC WC underdogs.

QB Tom Brady NE 36
QB Cam Newton CAR 19
QB Matt Ryan ATL 17
QB Marcus Mariota TEN 13
RB Dion Lewis NE 19
RB Leonard Fournette JAX 17
RB Devonta Freeman ATL 12
RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 11
WR Danny Amendola NE 12
WR Martavis Bryant PIT 10
WR Keelan Cole JAX 10
WR Chris Hogan NE 9
TE Greg Olsen CAR 7
TE Charles Clay BUF 5
K Stephen Gostkowski NE 16
K Josh Lambo JAX 11
K Josh Elliott PHI 8
K Graham Gano CAR 6
D Patriots NE 12

That's probably threading too fine a needle - betting on Atl or Carolina to do well, but not fully committing to either, while going heavy on New England, but not adding Cooks/Gronkowski. I was also debating whether to have Amendola or spread that money around to Josh Hill (NO TE $4), Ryan Succop (TEN K $5) & Mike Tolbert (BUF RB $3) to get some more points from early round teams with this weird "only 2 per team can count" rule.

[TLK]

My entry. I assume PIT/MIN will be popular. Hoping to slip by with 8 guys this weekend.

QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT - $32
RB - LeVeon Bell - PIT - $32
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - PIT - $19
WR - Martavis Bryant - PIT - $10
WR - Eli Rogers - PIT - $6
TE - Vance McDonald - PIT - $4

QB - Case Keenum - MIN - $21
RB - Latavius Murray - MIN - $14
RB - Jerick McKinnon - MIN - $11
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN - $20
WR - Stefon Diggs - MIN - $13
WR - Laquon Treadwell - MIN - $3
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN - $14

RB - Devonta Freeman - ATL - $12
RB - Tevin Coleman - ATL - $10

RB - Jonathan Stewart - CAR - $5
TE - Greg Olsen - CAR - $7

RB - LeSean McCoy - BUF - $5
RB - Mike Tolbert - BUF - $3

RB - Charcandrick West - KC - $5

WR - Willie Snead - NO - $3

[BishopMVP]

I'd say Day 1 went about as well as I could've hoped with that entry! Except I guess as a QB Mariota gets 0 points for his reception, just the 12 for throwing & catching a TD pass

[Maple Leafs]

My roster:

Albert Wilson             $9      0.00 

Matt Ryan                $17      0.00 
Devonta Freeman          $12      0.00 
Tevin Coleman            $10      0.00 
Julio Jones              $19      0.00 
Mohamed Sanu              $9      0.00 
Matt Bryant               $8      0.00 
Atlanta Falcons           $8      0.00 

LeSean McCoy              $5      0.00 
Buffalo Bills             $5      0.00 

Christian McCaffrey      $11      0.00 

Brandon Coleman           $6      0.00 

Ben Roethlisberger       $32      0.00 
LeVeon Bell              $32      0.00 
Stevan Ridley             $2      0.00 
Antonio Brown            $30      0.00 
JuJu Smith-Schuster      $19      0.00 
Pittsburgh Steelers      $10      0.00 

LeGarrette Blount         $5      0.00

Don't think I'm going to get enough out of my non-Falcons to survive the first weekend, although sometimes with FBG contests they get fewer entries than expected and the first week ends up being easier to slip through. Will probably need that.

[QuikSand]

I'm out with 71 points, cutoff was about 85.

[Maple Leafs]

I made it through, barely. McCaffrey's late score saved me.

[BishopMVP]

Approximately 143 by my back of the envelope calculations, though I do lose those Panthers players going forward.

[Maple Leafs]

The 2019 contest is up:
Footballguys Postseason Subscriber Contest Rules

Think I'm going all-in on a Chargers/Bears super bowl.

[QuikSand]

Just submitted my entry, for now:

QB - Drew Brees - NO - $38
QB - Andrew Luck - IND - $21
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO - $34
RB - Tarik Cohen - CHI - $20
RB - Marlon Mack - IND - $14
WR - Michael Thomas - NO - $28
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO - $9
WR - Chester Rogers - IND - $3
WR - Demarcus Robinson - KC - $3
TE - Ed Dickson - SEA - $5
TE - Hayden Hurst - BAL - $3
PK - Wil Lutz - NO - $15
PK - Cody Parkey - CHI - $10
PK - Justin Tucker - BAL - $9
PK - Sebastian Janikowski - SEA - $5
PK - Adam Vinatieri - IND - $4
TD - New Orleans Saints - NO - $12
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL - $9
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA - $8

If you only care about being the winner, rather than advancing, then you simply must load up massively on the right SB combo. Doing so seems to require that you eke out just enough points in the early rounds to not be eliminated.

Affording deep rosters on the #1 seeds is staggeringly expensive. I’m still considering it, though. For now, using one long longshot, but I think I’m spending too much on the early rounds.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

If you only care about being the winner, rather than advancing...

Which is the only way to play it, right? At least assuming you're doing the official FBG contest, only the top 12 get paid and only the top few make anything worth worrying about. So I don't see any value in just trying to survive (unless you put more value on being entertained for four weeks than a slim chance at winning prizes, but even then I don't really see the fun in knowing you can't win).

[panerd]

Not trying to threadjack or spin the thread off but had a question about the strategy for a smaller league similar to this. If you are in a 12-team league with actual drafting and you pick late my theory is your best bet is no longer to go with best players every round but to pick the best player in the first round (let's say Elliot) and then just load up on that team. My data is of course all anecdotal but it seems like the guy who had Nick Foles and the Eagles last year, Matt Ryan and a lot of Falcons two years ago, or Kurt Warner with Arizona (really digging here but the previous years aren't coming to my mind right now) is the one who wins and since it only pays one spot there is no reward for finishing with 130 points in 2nd place. Thoughts?

Is this just what happens in my league? Does a team spread out amongst Kamera, Gordon, Baldwin, etc do well in your leagues or is it the team the has 4-5 players in the final?

EDIT: Our scoring is cumulative not round by round

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by panerd

Not trying to threadjack or spin the thread off but had a question about the strategy for a smaller league similar to this. If you are in a 12-team league with actual drafting and you pick late my theory is your best bet is no longer to go with best players every round but to pick the best player in the first round (let's say Elliot) and then just load up on that team. My data is of course all anecdotal but it seems like the guy who had Nick Foles and the Eagles last year, Matt Ryan and a lot of Falcons two years ago, or Kurt Warner with Arizona (really digging here but the previous years aren't coming to my mind right now) is the one who wins and since it only pays one spot there is no reward for finishing with 130 points in 2nd place. Thoughts?

Is this just what happens in my league? Does a team spread out amongst Kamera, Gordon, Baldwin, etc do well in your leagues or is it the team the has 4-5 players in the final?

Yep, you've got it right. If you're drafting -- meaning that only one team can have a particular player -- you're basically looking to stake your claim to one team per conference and then hoping they go as far as possible.

If you spread your roster out you'll get better players and you'll be winning after the first round or two, but you won't win the whole thing. Having a handful of guys from other teams is OK because they'll bank you some points along the way (and you can mess up somebody else's draft by taking a guy from a team you know they're loading up on), but tread carefully.

Since it's winner-take-all, you have to load up. And if you're drafting late in the first round, it might not be the team you wanted. You just roll with what the draft gives you.