2009 College Football World Cup - COMPLETE!

[molson]

GROUP G

Week 3
Iowa 48, Northern Illinois 24
Louisiana-Monroe 34, Texas A&M 24
Memphis 45, Stanford 28

Iowa wraps up its 3-0 tour of the non-BCS schools on the schedule by doubling up on the Huskies.

Then, things get wacky, in the craziest day of the tournament yet.

First, the Warhawks of LA-Monroe upend Texas A&M, one weak after nearly pulling off the upset against Stanford. And this one had a pretty similar finish. Earlier in the game though, The Warhawks built up a 21-3 lead entering the final quarter. The Aggies stormed back to tie the game at 24 with 4 minutes to go. LA-Monroe ate up most of the rest of the clock with a 67-yard TD drive, taking the lead with just :57 left. That's just a few seconds left than they left Stanford the week before, and that didn't end well for LA-Monroe. But here, the Warhawks picked off the Aggies' first pass after the ensuing kickoff, took a couple of knees, and then hit a 35-yard FG to ice it.

It was a stunning win with big ramifications. LA-Monroe is 1-2, but they've gotten through the gauntlet of BCS teams. They have just Memphis and Northern Illinois left on the schedule. If they can win those two games, they're into the next round. A&M on the other hand, is in big trouble. They're also 1-2, but still have to play Iowa. And even if they somehow won out and got to 3-2 - they'd still lose the tiebreaker to a 3-2 Warhawks team.

THEN, an even bigger shock, Memphis, who comes into the tournament with a 2-10 2009 season record, stuns Stanford. And things were never really in doubt - the Tigers never trailed, and the last tie was early in the 2nd quarter. At 2-1, Stanford isn't in as big of trouble as A&M, since they do own wins over A&M, and also the suddenly relevant LA-Monroe Warhawks. The upcoming Memphis/A&M game is suddenly very important. In fact, everything remaining contest in this group is important.

Week 4
Iowa 69, Stanford 10
Louisiana-Monroe 32, Northern Illinois 29
Memphis 47, Texas A&M 18

Stanford follows up their upset loss with a humiliating rout at the hands of the Hawkeyes. The Warhawks fare far better with a close win over Northern Illinois. For the third straight week, Louisiana-Monroe scores a go-ahead TD with around a minute left in the game. And for the second straight week, they're able to hold off their opponents on the ensuing possession. And then.....I don't even know what to say about Memphis' demolition of Texas A&M. The Tigers wipe out Stanford and then the Aggies in consecutive weeks.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Iowa 4-0 (+196)
Memphis 2-2 (-28)
Louisiana-Monroe 2-2 (-46)
Stanford 2-2 (-52)
Texas A&M 1-3 (-43)
Northern Illinois 1-3 (-27)
...

Week 5 Lineup:

Iowa v. Texas A&M
Memphis v. Louisiana-Monroe
Stanford v. Northern Illinois

So many upsets and strange anomalies in this group. Such as the fact that everyone except Iowa has negative point differentials at the moment.

Iowa has stayed above the craziness and clinched the #1 spot in the group. They're just playing for a sweep of the group, and to add to the point differential.

The winner of the Memphis/Louisiana-Monroe game advances to the next round. The 2-10 Tigers are just the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks away from the next round.

Despite the struggles of Stanford, they still control their own destiny and advance if they can win v. Northern Illinois. If they can do that, they'll either end up at the #2 spot (if LA-Monroe wins), or the #3 spot (if Memphis wins)

There are long-shot scenarios for both Northern Illinois and Texas A&M to sneak into the final 3, and they obviously start with them winning their games.

Nobody here looks like any kind of wild card contender.

[molson]

GROUP G

Week 5
Iowa 58, Texas A&M 13
Louisiana-Monroe 30, Memphis 17
Stanford 41, Northern Illinois 38

Iowa wraps up the group sweep in convincing fashion, putting the Aggies out of their misery. Louisiana-Monroe clinches advancement by defeating Memphis, whose miracle run ends here. Stanford gets back on grack with a close win v. Northern Illinois. As things turned out, the Huskies would have advanced if they could have pulled off the upset here, and we would have both the Aggies and the Cardinal going home. The Cardinal/Huskies game was close throughout. Stanford broke a 31-31 tie with a FG with 4:11 remaining in the game. Then Northern Illinois drove 75 yards in 9 plays to take the lead with a TD with 1:01 left. For the second time in the tournament, Stanford received a kickoff with less than minute to go, needing a score to win the game. And for the 2nd time, they pull it off, this time, with the help of a great kickoff team that starts them off at midfield, and later a 10-yard TD pass.
...

Final Group G standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Iowa 5-0 (+241)
#2 Stanford 3-2 (-49)
#3 Louisiana-Monroe 3-2 (-33)
#4 Memphis 2-3 (-41)
#5 Texas A&M 1-4 (-88)
#6 Northern Illinois 1-4 (-30)

Iowa, Stanford, and Louisiana-Monroe advance. Stanford earns the #2 seed via their last-second head-to-head win over Louisiana-Monroe. Memphis somehow manages to go 2-1 against the BCS teams in the group, but then 0-2 v. the non-BCS schools. And their profile puts them outside of the current top four 4th place teams, so they're officially eliminated. Texas A&M has to be the biggest disappointment in the tournament yet. I mean, they weren't great in the Big 12 in 2009 or anything, but losing to Memphis and Louisiana-Monroe - what a disaster. Northern Illinois is also eliminated, even though they had the 2nd best point differential in the group,

....

Next up, Group H, featuring Cincinnati. The groups get more and more interesting as we go, I think, as the top seed in each group gets less and less dominant on paper. Cincinnati definitely has good teams to contend with in group H.

...

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)
Mississippi St. 2-3 (-16)
Kentucky 2-3 (-22) ELIMINATED
UCLA 2-3 (-36) ELIMINATED
Memphis 2-3 (-41) ELIMINATED

[molson]

GROUP H

# 8 Cincinnati (Big East, 7-0, 12-1)
Army (Independent, 5-7)
Connecticut (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
North Carolina St. (ACC, 2-6, 5-7)
Southern Methodist (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5)
UNLV (MWC, 3-5, 5-7)

Week 1:
Cincinnati 48, Army 3
Connecticut 38, N.C. State 33
SMU 59, UNLV 24

Good start for the Bearcats, who trounce Army, who are looking to join Navy in the next round. Big win for UConn against a team they're likely competing with here for an automatic spot. The Wolfpack cut UConn's lead to 6 points with 4:45 to play, but then couldn't get further then the Husky 15 yard line before running out of time. Very promising start for SMU.

Week 2:
Cincinnati 21, Connecticut 18
SMU 31, Army 23
N.C. State 38, UNLV 20

In an all-big east matchup, the Bearcats edge the Huskies. UConn had two possessions after closing Cincinnati's lead to 3 with about 7 minutes left, but couldn't get into field goal range either time. The Black Knights scored the final 10 points in the 4th quarter to get within 8 of SMU, but couldn't get any closer. 2-0 start for the Mustangs. And in a battle between teams that lost week 1 and were desperate for a win here - N.C. State defeats UNLV.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Cincinnati 2-0 (+48)
SMU 2-0 (+43)
Connecticut 1-1 (+2)
North Carolina St. 1-1 (+13)
Army 0-2 (-53)
UNLV 0-2 (-53)

A lot of competitive games in this group. I still expect the Bearcats to lose somewhere before its over. UConn seems to be in a decent position, at 1-1 with Cincinnati already out of the way.

[molson]

GROUP H

Week 3
Cincinnati 56, N.C. State 45
Army 34, UNLV 14
Connecticut 28, SMU 20

The Bearcats withstood a furious N.C. rally which involved 24 points in the final quarter. A 73-yard TD run with 2:21 finally put things away. Army gets its first win and stays alive. I had some hunch that SMU might be some kind of team of destiny, but they fall back to the pack here with a loss to UConn. The Huskies get some big defensive stops down the stretch to keep SMU from seriously challenging.

Week 4
Cincinnati 44, SMU 42
N.C. State 44, Army 10
Connecticut 59, UNLV 31

In the game of the group thus far, the Bearcats stay undefeated and edge the Mustangs. SMU definitely put themselves in position to win, but they ended up with 5 FGs, indicating a lot of stalled drives. They still had a chance though, as the last of the 5 FGs put then up 42-38 with 1:17 left. But that was enough time for a Bearcat rally - on their second play of the next possession, a 61-yard rushing TD put Cincinnati up for good.

,...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Cincinnati 4-0 (+59)
Connecticut 3-1 (+38)
North Carolina St. 2-2 (+38)
SMU 2-2 (+33)
Army 1-3 (-67)
UNLV 0-4 (-101)

Week 5 Lineup

Cincinnati v. UNLV
Army v. Connecticut
North Carolina St. v. SMU

Pretty simple setup to the last week. Cincinnati has already clinched the #1 spot. Connecticut, by virtue of its head-to-head victories over both SMU and N.C. State, has clinched the #2 spot, and will advance. N.C. State and SMU will face off in week 5, with the winner earning the third and final automatic spot. The loser will finish #4 (since either loser would own the tiebreaker over Army). Army and UNLV are already done.

[molson]

GROUP H

Week 5
Cincinnati 50, UNLV 7
Connecticut 31, Army 23
N.C. State 40, SMU 36

Not too much craziness the final week of the group. The Bearcats do pull off the group sweep, and the Rebels end up winless. Connecticut holds on against the Black Knights, and finish a very impressive 4-1. The most drama comes in the final week as the Wolfpack manages to wrest the #3 spot and last automatic bid from SMU with a 4-point win. This was a back-and-forth affair all night long, with 7 lead changes, and the teams alternating the final 6 TDs of the game. So it came down to who could score last, which was the Wolfpack, with a 5-yard TD pass with 6:42 remaining. N.C. State got two big defensive stops after that to hold on.

...

Final Group H standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

1. Cincinnati 5-0 (+102)
2. Connecticut 4-1 (+46)
3. North Carolina St. 3-2 (+42)
4. SMU 2-3 (+29)
5. Army 1-4 (-75)
6. UNLV 0-5 (-144)

Cincinnati, Connecticut, and North Carolina St. advance. SMU cracks the top 4 of the wild card race so they're alive for now - that means Mississippi St. is officially eliminated, and Auburn is pushed to the brink as the #4 WC at the moment. Army and UNLV are eliminated.

The Bearcats become the 6th team to go undefeated, but they do it with the smallest point differential yet among undefeated teams. That's no big deal, they're still looking at a lowish-seeded #3 group ranked team in the next round.

Current Top 4 in Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
SMU 2-3 (+29)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)

....

Next up, it's Group I, where it's Penn St.'s turn to take center stage.

[molson]

GROUP I

# 9 Penn St. (Big 10, 6-2, 11-2)
San Diego St. (MWC, 2-6, 4-8)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt, 0-8, 0-12)
Washington (PAC-10, 4-5, 5-7)
Wake Forest (ACC, 3-5, 5-7)
Wyoming (MWC, 4-4, 7-6)

Week 1:
Penn St 38, San Diego St. 7
Washington 54, Western Kentucky 45
Wyoming 31, Wake Forest 24

A steady, business-like effort kicks things off for Penn St v. the Aztecs. The Huskies on the other hand, really play with fire against the worst team on paper in the entire tournament, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky actually led 35-34 going in the final quarter. They then swapped TD's with the Huskies (the Huskies nailed a 2-point conversion after their TD) and added a FG with 3:39 left, to increase their lead to 3 with 3:39 to go. The Huskies then avoided disaster with an 8-play, 67-yard drive on the the ensuing possession which culminated in a 7-yard TD pass with 1:17 to go, and the Huskies took the lead for good. They added a safety and a FG for the final margin. And Wyoming gets a big 7-point win against Wake. It took a Wake TD in the final minute to close the gap to that final score.

Week 2
Penn St. 45, Western Kentucky 6
Wake Forest 35, San Diego St. 17
Wyoming 57, Washington 28

Penn St. with a blowout win, but I somehow expected more against Western Kentucky. Maybe we're down enough in the seedings now where the obnoxious blowout wins are less likely. The Aztecs led 17-7 late in the 3rd quarter in their upset bid against Wake Forrest, but the Demon Deacons scored the game's final 4 TDs after that. The Cowboys have surprisingly little trouble with the Huskies to roll to 2-0. Wyoming is in excellent shape, with Western Kentucky still on their schedule.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Penn St. 2-0 (+70)
Wyoming 2-0 (+36)
Wake Forest 1-1 (+11)
Washington 1-1 (-20)
Western Kentucky 0-2 (-48)
San Diego St. 0-2 (-49)

No big surprises yet here - it still looks like Wyoming, Wake Forest, and Washington are competing for the final 2 automatic spots after Penn St. (and everyone trying to keep be impressive enough to contend for a wild card if they end up at #4.) The Huskies look like the most vulnerable out of that group, since they barely beat Western Kentucky, got blown out by Wyoming, and still have Penn St. on the schedule.

[molson]

GROUP I

Week 3
Penn St 62, Washington 14
San Diego St. 31, Wyoming 13
Wake Forest 60, Western Kentucky 28

Penn St exposes the Huskies as perhaps the clear #4 (at best) in the group, as they get their most lopsided win of the tournament. And after that great first two weeks, Wyoming lost a game they were actually favored in in an upset loss to the Aztecs. The Cowboys closed the gap to 8 halfway through the 4th quarter, but never seriously challenged for a score again after that. Wake leaves nothing to chance against those pesky Hilltoppers.

Week 4
Penn St 72, Wake Forest 10
San Diego St. 36, Washington 31
Wyoming 51, Western Kentucky 31

Things really come together for the Nittany Lions this week. Elsewhere, it took 3 4th quarter TDs for the Huskies to get that close, and lose by 5 to the suddenly relevant Aztecs. San Diego St. ran out the clock late to hold on. They've defeated Wyoming and Washington in back to back weeks, and have themselves in position for a very surprising advancement. The Cowboys recover from last week by pushing W. Kentucky to 0-4.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Penn State 4-0 (+180)
Wyoming 3-1 (+38)
Wake Forest 2-2 (-19)
San Diego St. 2-2 (-26)
Washington 1-3 (-73)
Western Kentucky 0-4 (-100)
...

Week 5 Lineup:
Penn St. v. Wyoming
San Diego St. v. Western Kentucky
Wake Forest v. Washington

Penn St. has clinched advancement, but not yet the group title. That comes down to the final week - Penn St. v. Wyoming, winner wins the group. After that, things get tricky. The most likely scenario for the final week is Penn St. defeating Wyoming, San Diego St. defeating Western Kentucky, and Wake Forest defeating Washington. If all that happens, the Cowboys, Aztecs, and Demon Deacons will all finish tied for #2 at 3-2, and they'll all have finished 1-1 within that group. So point differential might play a factor. The Huskies maintain a very, very small chance of jumping into the #3 spot - that would require a huge blowout win v. Wake Forest, and a San Diego St. blowout loss to Western Kentucky, at least.

[Izulde]

No surprise UNLV ended up winless, though it was still discouraging.

[molson]

GROUP I

Week 5
Wyoming 28, Penn St. 25
Washington 45, Wake Forest 30
San Diego St. 48, Western Kentucky 6

The biggest stunner of the tournament yet, as Penn St. becomes the first top-20 seeded team to lose their group. The Wyoming Cowboys who went 4-4 in the MWC is 2009, win the group and advance. The Cowboys opened up a 13-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter. PSU fought back with a couple of TDs, but still trailed 19-14 at halftime, and 19-17 entering the final quarter. There, the Cowboys played D and field position, hitting 3 FGs and keeping PSU off the scoreboard to increase their lead to 28-17 with under a minute left. During that stretch, the Cowboys picked off a PSU pass, stopped PSU on 4th down twice, and held the Nittany Lions to a couple of 3-and-outs. PSU did get one more TD in that final minute, but it wasn't enough.

That shook things up, to where Wyoming was #1, Penn St. #2, and Wake Forest suddenly controlled their own destiny for #3, as they owned the tiebreaker against San Diego St....but they couldn't take advantage, and lose by 15 to Washington. That actually clinched the final spot for San Diego St, since they owned the tiebreaker with Washington. But just for good measure, the Aztecs completed their surprising run with a blowout win against the Hilltoppers.

Final Group I standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Wyoming 4-1 (+41)
#2 Penn St. 4-1 (+177)
#3 San Diego St. 3-2 (+16)
#4 Washington 2-3 (-58)
#5 Wake Forest 2-3 (-34)
#6 Western Kentucky 0-5 (-142)

Wyoming, Penn St, and San Diego St. advance. Washington ends up at #4 because of their head-to-head win v. Wake Forest, but their 2-3 (-58) profile can't crack the top 4 of the Wild Card race, so they're officially eliminated as well, along with Wake and Western Kentucky.

The Wyoming win in the group is big. Their 4-1 (+41) profile certainly isn't sparkling for a group winner, but it will be enough for them to be seeded in the overall #15-#20 range going into the next round. Which means a preliminary knockout round matchup against a team that finished #3 in their group. Great shot for them to sneak into the final knockout stage of 32. Penn St was heading towards a clean sweep, and maybe a top #10 overall seed for the next round, but the loss probably pushes them down to #21 - it's hard to imagine another 2nd place school topping 4-1 (+180). As a bottom-half team of the MWC, The Axtecs advancement is very surprising.

...

Up next, the first half of the group stage concludes with Group J, featuring Viriginia Tech, very lucky Tennessee and Bowling Green teams, and then a trio of crap. But anything can happen, as we've learned the last few weeks.

[molson]

GROUP J

#10 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3)
Akron (Mid-American, 2-6, 3-9)
Bowling Green (Mid-American, 6-2, 7-6)
New Mexico (MWC, 1-7, 1-11)
North Texas (Sun Belt, 1-7, 2-10)
Tennessee (SEC, 4-4, 7-6)

Week 1
Virginia Tech 37, Akron 17
Bowling Green 63, New Mexico 24
Tennessee 79, North Texas 31

Week 1 highlighted the very clear talent differences, on paper, between the top and bottom halves of the group

Week 2
Virginia Tech 62, Bowling Green 7
Akron 31, North Texas 23
Tennessee 34, New Mexico 30, OT

VT Cruises. North Texas needed two late scores to get within a possession of the Zips, but they fall short. Then the Volunteers really make you wonder about their chances in this thing as they need overtime to dispatch the 1-11 New Mexico Lobos. Third OT game of the tournament thus far. The only score in the entire 4th quarter occurred with :26 seconds left and it tied the game for the Lobos, who completed an 83-yard drive with a scoring TD. They got the ball first in OT and settled for a FG. The Volunteers answered with a TD, and that was it.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Virginia Tech 2-0 (+75)
Tennessee 2-0 (+52)
Akron 1-1 (-12)
Bowling Green 1-1 (-16)
New Mexico 0-2 (-43)
North Texas 0-2 (-56)

Despite Tennessee's near-slip-up, we still appear headed to VT/Tenn/BG advancing. Akron gets the early bead on #4, but it will be tough for them to reach the necessary point differential to enter wild card contention

[molson]

GROUP J

Week 3
Virginia Tech 55, New Mexico 27
Tennessee 28, Akron 21, OT
Bowling Green 66, North Texas 59

Tech moves to 3-0 with another blowout win, but the Lobos do manage to put up a bunch of points again. For the second straight week, the Volunteers need OT to defeat a non-BCS school with a losing record. This time, its the Zips who really miss out on putting themselves in great shape for advancement - if they pulled this off, they would probably be looking at a 3-2 record, with New Mexico still on their schedule. The game was back and forth, with the teams trading scores throughout the game. Akron tied the game at the end of regulation in probably their last chance to do so - 3rd and goal, 12 seconds left, 0 timeouts. They convert that, but then give up a Volunteer TD in OT, and throw an interception on their own possession. And in yet another just-missed upset bid, Bowling Green beats the Mean Green by only 7. North Texas got within 7 with about 2:30 left in the game, but the Falcons got enough first downs after that to win.

Week 4
Virginia Tech 55, North Texas 7
New Mexico 24, Akron 10
Tennessee 37, Bowling Green 9

VT continues to stay above the near-upset fray with a rout of the Mean Green. New Mexico keeps their long-shot advancement hopes alive by beating the Zips by two TDs. And Tennessee finally wins a game convincingly, blowing out Bowling Green to go to 4-0 and setup a group championship game v. Virgina Tech next week.

...

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Virginia Tech 4-0 (+151)
Tennessee 4-0 (+87)
Bowling Green 2-2 (-37)
Akron 1-3 (-33)
New Mexico 1-3 (-57)
North Texas 0-4 )(-111)

...

Week 5 Lineup:
Virginia Tech v. Tennessee
New Mexico v. North Texas
Bowling Green v. Akron

It's kind of amazing that the Tennessee Volunteers needed OT to beat both New Mexico, and Akron, and now stand in the final week with a chance to sweep the group and earn the #1 ranking. The winner of VT/Tenn wins the group, the loser gets the #2 spot. Bowling Green earns the #3 spot if they can beat Akron. If Akron wins, they would win the head-to-head tiebreaker with Bowling Green, BUT New Mexico could jump into a three way tie there, at 2-3, if they can beat North Texas. And all three of those teams are 1-1 against each other, so the team with the worst point differential would drop out, then we'd look at head-to-head with the two remaining teams. North Texas is just looking to avoid going winless.

[molson]

GROUP J

Week 5
Virginia Tech 41, Tennessee 24
North Texas 33, New Mexico 27, OT
Akron 52, Bowling Green 35

VT wins the group. The Volunteers did lead late in the third quarter, but VT scored 20 unanswered points to earn the #1 ranking. The Mean Green avoid going winless, and also knock the Lobos out of advancement contention with an OT win. The Mean Green tied it with a FG as time expired in regulation, stopped the Lobos in OT, and then scored a TD for the win. And finally, in a group of near-upsets, the Akron Zips pull off an actual upset over Bowling Green to nab the #3 spot.

Final Group J standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Virgina Tech 5-0 (+168)
#2 Tennessee 4-1 (+70)
#3 Akron 2-3 (-16)
#4 Bowling Green 2-3 (-54)
#5 North Texas 1-4 (-105)
#6 New Mexico 1-4 (-63)

Virginia Tech, Tennessee, and Akron advance. Akron gets the last spot because of their head-to-head win against Bowling Green week 5. The Falcons profile of 2-3 (-54) isn't anywhere close to the current top 4 4th place wild card contenders, so they're officially eliminated, along with North Texas, and New Mexico. Akron is definitely a big advancement surprise, as they finished 3 games behind Bowling Green in the Mid-American conference standings.

That's the end of the first 10 groups. Recap to come

[molson]

GROUP STAGE FIRST HALF RECAP

ADVANCED
#1 Ranking In Group:
-Alabama
-Texas
-Florida
-USC
-Ohio St.
-TCU
-Iowa
-Cincinnati
-Wyoming
-Virginia Tech

#2 Ranking In Group:
-Central Michigan
-West Virginia
-Oklahoma
-Boise St.
-Central Florida
-Minnesota
-Stanford
-Connecticut
-Penn St.
-Tennessee

#3 Ranking In Group:
-Michigan
-Arkansas
-Temple
-Navy
-Virginia
-Louisiana Tech
-Louisiana-Monroe
-North Carolina St.
-San Diego St
-Akron

CURRENT "TEAMS TO BEAT" IN WILD CARD STANDINGS
-Southern Mississippi
-Nevada
-SMU
-Auburn

ELIMINATED
-UCLA
-Houston
-Tulane
-Kentucky
-UTEP
-Idaho
-Arizona
-Colorado
-LA-Lafayette
-Miami (OH)
-Mississippi St
-Kent St.
-Toledo
-Indiana
-Hawaii
-Memphis
-Texas A&M
-Northern Illinois
-Army
-UNLV
-Washington
-Wake Forest
-Western Kentucky
-Bowling Green
-North Texas
-New Mexico

[molson]

GROUP K

#11 Oregon (PAC-10, 8-1, 10-3)
Duke (ACC, 3-5, 5-7)
Louisville (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)
New Mexico St. (WAC, 1-7, 3-1)
Northwestern (Big 10, 5-3, 8-5)
Purdue (Big 10, 4-4, 5-7)

Week 1:
Oregon 30, Duke 17
New Mexico St. 41, Louisville 34
Northwestern 38, Purdue 28

Oregon/Duke were tied entering the 4th quarter but then the Ducks took control. Decent performance by the Blue Devils, who are looking to finish ahead of the one of the Big 10 teams here (Northwestern & Purdue) and advance. The Aggies score the first 24 points of the 2nd half to ensure that they get at least one win in the group. The Boilermakers get a couple of late scores to make things respectable with the Wildcats, who win the key Big-10 matchup.

Week 2
Oregon 30, Louisville 21
Northwestern 37, Duke 13
Purdue 63, New Mexico St. 24

The big 3 show up in a big way during week 2. Oregon has a little trouble with Louisville. They aren't racking up the blowouts, but they're 2-0. A 30-0 2nd half propels the Wildcats to another win. And Purdue, which was in a must-win situation after losing week 1, destroys the Aggies.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Northwestern 2-0 (+34)
Oregon 2-0 (+22)
Purdue 1-1 (+29)
New Mexico St. 1-1 (-32)
Louisville 0-2 (-16)
Duke 0-2 (-37)

[molson]

GROUP K

Week 3
Oregon 65, New Mexico St. 10
Duke 42, Purdue 37
Northwestern 31, Louisville 17

Oregon gets their first real blowout, and then - the Duke Blue Devils with the mild upset v. Purdue. Having already lost to Northwestern and with Oregon still on the schedule, it appears that Purdue may be the latest Big 10 team to go down. The game wasn't even as close as the final score indicated. The Wildcats move to 3-0 to setup their showdown with Oregon next week for the group's #1 ranking.

Week 4
Oregon 35, Northwestern 17
Duke 40, New Mexico St. 3
Louisville 41, Purdue 34

The Wildcats are not able to pull a Tennessee and wrest the #1 ranking away from the group's dominant team. And Duke edges closer to a semi-surprising berth in the next round with its blowout win v. New Mexico St.. But - I'm not even sure they need all these wins, as Purdue tanks again, this time to Louisville. The Cardinals led 34-6 heading into the final quarter, and it took a crazy Boilermaker rally just to close within 7 by the end of the game.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Oregon 4-0 (+95)
Northwestern 3-1 (+30)
Duke 2-2 (+5)
Purdue 1-3 (+17)
Louisville 1-3 (-23)
New Mexico St. 1-3 (-124)

...

Week 5 Lineup:

Oregon v. Purdue
Duke v. Louisville
New Mexico St. v. Northwestern

Much is already settled going into the last week. With the win over the Wildcats, Oregon clinches the #1 spot in the group. Northwestern, by virtue of their head-to-head win over Duke, have already clinched the #2 spot. Duke controls their own destiny to nail down the #3 spot - they just have to defeat Louisville. If they don't, we could conceivably end up with a 4-way tie at 2-3 for the final spot....but that's extremely unlikely. Most likely, if Louisville can upset Duke - then the Cardinals are going to sneak in, somehow, to the next round.

[molson]

GROUP K

Week 5
Oregon 58, Purdue 14
Louisville 51, Duke 44, 2 OT
Northwestern 54, New Mexico St. 6

Oregon completes the group sweep with a much-needed blowout. They won't have the best point differential among 5-0 teams, but they'll take 5-0. Louisville surprises Duke in double OT to sneak into the next round. The Cardinals were just 1-6 in the Big East this year, but thanks to a weak conference, manage to advance the the preliminary knockout round, solely with wins over Duke and Purdue. This was a back-and-forth affair, with the teams alternating the first 8 scores, until Duke took a 37-27 lead with back to back TDs in the 4th quarter. The Cardinals then scored a TD, forced a punt, got a terrific punt return to their own 43, drove the field, and hit the game tieing 41-yard FG with 6 seconds remaining. It the first OT, the teams trade TDs. But in the second OT, Duke got the ball first and promptly fumbled. The Cardinals scored a TD for the win on their turn. Northwestern with the blowout reaches 4-1

Final Group K standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Oregon 5-0 (+139)
#2 Northwestern 4-1 (+78)
#3 Louisville 2-3 (-16)
#4 Duke 2-3 (-2)
#5 Purdue 1-4 (-27)
#6 New Mexico St. 1-4 (-172)

Oregon, Northwestern, and Louisville advance. The latter gets in via head-to-head Double OT win v. Duke week 5. Duke, thanks to a couple of close losses, manage a point differential of -2, which is enough for them to crack the Top 4 4th place teams at the moment, putting them in Wild Card contention. They bump out Mississippi St, who are eliminated. Purdue and New Mexico St. are also gone. Purdue avoids a last place finish only due to their head-to-head win v. New Mexico St.

...

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)
Duke 2-3 (-4)

...

Up next, Group L, featuring BYU. After them, it's hard to imagine that two are actually going to advance from the group of Colorado St, Florida International, Michigan St, Western Michigan, and Washington St.

[molson]

GROUP L

#12 BYU (MWC, 7-1, 11-2)
Colorado St. (MWC, 0-8, 3-9)
Florida International (Sun Belt, 3-5, 3-9)
Michigan St. (Big 10, 4-4, 6-7)
Western Michigan (Mid American, 4-4, 5-7)
Washington St. (PAC-10, 0-9, 1-11)

Week 1
BYU 35, Colorado St. 10
Michigan St. 49, Florida International 34
Washington St. 63, Western Michigan 45

I think BYU has a chance at blowing everyone away and landing a top seed going into the next round, but their 25-point opening win over the Rams has to be considered a little dissapointing. The Spartans are the clear #2 on paper in this group, and they have a little trouble as well against the Golden Panthers. But Michigan St. was never seriously challenged - they built up a huge lead early and then just traded scores. Washington St., on the other hand, has to feel good about matching their entire 2009 win total in the first group stage game here.

Week 2
BYU 62, Florida International 7
Colorado St. 24, Western Michigan 21
Michigan St. 66, Washington St. 7

That's more like it for BYU, laying down a beating on FIU. The Rams get a big win against Western Michigan. These games between the dreks of the group are going to determine who's lucky enough to steal advancement to the next round. Colorado St. scored 3 1st-quarter TDs to go up 21-0, and were able to hold on after that. Western Michigan cut the lead to 3 with 10:01 to go, but wasn't able to take advantage of an interception a few minutes later, and missed a 34-yard FG that would have tied the game with 6:33 to go. They never got close to a score again. The Spartans also win, keeping everything to form in the group. They're obviously BYU's biggest threat in the group, and those teams will face off week 3, with the group title likely on the line.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

BYU 2-0 (+80)
Michigan St. 2-0 (+74)
Colorado St. 1-1 (-22)
Washington St. 1-1 (-41)
Western Michigan 0-2 (-21)
Florida International 0-2 (-70)

Unless there's a big surprise in the next 3 weeks of the group, BYU will be #1, Michigan St. #2, and the winner of the Washington St/Colorado St. game will be #3.

[Karlifornia]

I'm interested. Go Stanford!

[molson]

GROUP L

Week 3
BYU 52, Michigan St. 41
Colorado St. 47, Washington St. 0
Western Michigan 38, Florida International 35

The Cougars and Spartans alternated the final 13 scores of the game, and every possession in the last quarter and a half resulted in a score. BYU did enough for the win, to virtually wrap up an undefeated group. Colorado St hammers Washington St - that might be enough to propel the Rams into the next round (while the U of Colorado has already been eliminated). Wild finish the WMU/FIU game (which probably won't have any implications to anything). A Bronco QB scramble TD gave them a 30-28 lead with 4 minutes to go. FIU returned the ensuing kickoff to their own 40, and the drove 60 yards, culminating in a QB draw TD. 34-31, FIU, 1:20 to go. That was too much clock to leave the Broncos. Their game-winning drive didn't start well, but they converted a 4th-and-4, then ripped off a 39-yard run to put them in position.

Week 4
BYU 48, Western Michigan 34
Michigan St. 48, Colorado St. 45
Florida International 48, Washington St. 29

Another solid, if unspectacular win for the Cougars. Maybe I'm expecting too much from them. But here, they actually trail 34-28 entering the 4th quarter, and only then run off 20 straight points to ice the game. The Spartans hold off the Rams in a back-and-forth game. The Rams scored late to draw within 3 points, but then couldn't recover the onside kick. Finally WSU never led in an embarrassing loss to FIU.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

BYU: 4-0 (+105)
Michigan St. 3-1 (+66)
Colorado St. 2-2 (+22)
Western Michigan 1-3 (-32)
Florida International 1-3 (-54)
Washington St. 1-3 (-107)

Week 5 Matchups:
BYU v. Washington St.
Michigan St. v. Western Michigan
Florida International v. Colorado St.

BYU has clinched the #1 group spot - they'll just be looking to pad their point differential against Washington St. Michigan St. has clinched the #2 spot, because of their head-to-head win v. Colorado St. Colorado St. earns the #3 spot with a win over FIU. FIU probably earns advancement for themselves if they win that game - though things could get more complicated if either Western Michigan or Washington St. pull an upset.

[molson]

GROUP L

Week 5
BYU 93, Washington St. 6
Michigan St. 66, Western Michigan 24
Florida International 38, Colorado St. 35

BYU makes up for the lack of spectacular blowouts with one that perhaps exceeds the description of "spectacular". The 87-point win actually isn't the biggest blowout of the tournament (that honor still belongs to TCU), but BYU will take it. MSU finishes up by padding their point differential and by officially knocking in-state Western Michigan out of the tourney. And then, the big game of the week, Florida International pulls off a win and advances to the next round. Colorado St. got two TDs in the last 4 minutes to close the gap, but then they just ran out of time. Florida International was 3-5 in the Sun Belt in 2009 - they have to be one of the weakest teams on paper to advance.

Final Group L standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 BYU 5-0 (+192)
#2 Michigan St. 4-1 (+108)
#3 Florida International 2-3 (-51)
#4 Colorado St. 2-3 (+19)
#5 Western Michigan 1-4 (-74)
#6 Washington St. 1-4 (-194)

BYU, Michigan St, and Florida International advance. Colorado St. loses the tiebreaker with FIU and falls to #4, but their solid point differential puts them in the wild card hunt. That officially eliminates Duke, and pushes Auburn to the brink of elimination. Western Michigan and Washington St. are eliminated as well.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Colorado St. 2-3 (+22)
Auburn 2-3 (-3)

[molson]

I wanted to jump out to a quick start on this thing as I knew I'd be out a lot of the next 10 days or so. Back in New England at the moment, so probably no updates until next week.

[molson]

GROUP M

#13 Georgia Tech (ACC, 7-1, 11-3)
Buffalo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)
Maryland (ACC, 1-7, 2-10)
San Jose St. (WAC, 1-7, 2-10)
Troy (Sun Belt, 8-0, 9-4)
UAB (Conference USA, 4-4, 5-7)

Week 1
Buffalo 58, Georgia Tech 37
Maryland 38, San Jose St. 23
Troy 38, UAB 21

Buffalo shakes things up right off the bat with a stunning win over the Yellow Jackets. The Bulls jumped out 13-0 and it was never really close after that. I expected GT to run through this group with ease. Maryland gets off to a good start in what is a very lucky group placement for them. They broke open a close game with 3 4th quarter TDs. Troy is also well setup to advance, after they also broke open a close game late.

Week 2
Maryland 47, Georgia Tech 38
Troy 38, Buffalo 17
San Jose St. 28, UAB 24

The Yellow Jackets with another shocking defeat, are now in serious danger of becoming the first ranked team not to get out of the group stage. It might come down to their matchup against Troy. Maryland led 27-10 at halftime, and it took a last minute GT TD to make the final score respectable. Troy does take advantage of the chaos in the group and wipes out Buffalo. San Jose St. gets a TD early in the 4th quarter to take the lead against the Blazers, and their defense kept UAB off the scoreboard after that.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Troy 2-0 (+38)
Maryland 2-0 (+24)
Buffalo 1-1 (Even)
San Jose St. 1-1 (-11)
UAB 0-2 (-21)
Georgia Tech 0-2 (-30)

Very odd group thus far, as the Yellow Jackets are making things interesting. You have to think things will average out and they'll be able to run the table from here against UAB, San Jose St, and Troy. But if they can't beat Troy, they're probably in trouble, because of that head-to-head loss v. Buffalo. Maryland and Troy, who probably wouldn't advance out of most other groups, have shot out of the gate to take advantage of the situation. Even if GT does survive, they're looking a pretty low seeding in the next round.

[molson]

GROUP M

Week 3
Georgia Tech 61, San Jose St. 17
Buffalo 23, UAB 22
Troy 38, Maryland 27

Georgia Tech finally shows up for the tournament, jumping out to a 41-0 halftime lead on the way to a blowout of the Spartans. Buffalo gets a big win to move to 2-1 with a close with over UAB. They scored the game winning TD with 36 seconds remaining, after UAB had taken the lead with a FG with 3:00 minutes remaining. Troy scores the last 17 points of the game and wins the battle of 2-0 teams v. Maryland.

Week 4
Georgia Tech 49, Troy 27
Buffalo 58, San Jose St. 23
Maryland 24, UAB 22

Georgia Tech hands Troy its first group stage loss, in convincing fashion, to keep their own advancement hope alive. Buffalo though, still has a bead on the #3 spot, after their blowout of San Jose St. Maryland takes care of business against UAB with a 2-point win. UAB couldn't convert a 2-point conversion with 1:27 left that would have tied the game.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Buffalo 3-1 (+36)
Troy 3-1 (+27)
Maryland 3-1 (+15)
Georgia Tech 2-2 (+36)
UAB 0-4 (-24)
San Jose St. 1-3 (-90)

Week 5 Matchups:
Georgia Tech v. UAB
Troy v. San Jose St.
Maryland v. Buffalo

It appears that Georgia Tech is in big trouble to gain an automatic bid to the next round.. They'd lose a tiebreaker against either Buffalo or Maryland. They'd win a tiebreaker against Troy, but to take advantage of that, Troy has to lose to San Jose St. However, a 3-2 GT team that finishes 4th will be in wild card contention, especially if they lay a beating on UAB to pad their point differential. San Jose St. and UAB are already eliminated. Troy controls their own destiny and wins the group if they can win week 5.

[molson]

GROUP M

Week 5
UAB 41, Georgia Tech 38
Troy 62, San Jose St. 30
Buffalo 38, Maryland 33

The Yellow Jackets complete their run as biggest bust in the tournament thus far, as they lose in stunning fashion to previously winless UAB, and become the first ranked team to not qualify automatically for the next round. They stay alive for a wild card though, as their decent point differential puts them at #3 in the wild card standings. With a lot of groups left to play though, their chances of staying in the top 4 there are tenuous. A FG with 2:45 left in the game put GT up by 10. UAB then drove 80 yards in 7 plays for a TD, cutting the GT lead to 3 with 1:39 left. UAB couldn't recover the onside kick, but used their timeouts, held GT to a 3-and-out, and got the ball back at their own 10 with :48 left. 8 plays and 90 yards later, the UAB QB scrambled for the winning TD with :02 left. Troy wraps up the #1 spot in the group and an impressive group stage run with a blowout win v. San Jose St. Buffalo wraps up the #2 spot defeating Maryland, so group M has non-BCS schools finishing 1-2. The Terrapins scored the last 16 points in that game to make the final score respectable, but Buffalo was never really in trouble.

Final Group M standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Troy 4-1 (+59)
#2 Buffalo 4-1 (+41)
#3 Maryland 3-2 (+10)
#4 Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
#5 San Jose St. 1-4 (-122)
#6 UAB 1-4 (-21)

The most surprising group in the tournament thus far completes. Troy, as the #1 seed here, will likely get a winnable game in the next stage and a great shot to get into the final bracket of 32. Buffalo and Maryland take full advantage of GT's collapse and advance to the round of 64, despite both having losing records during the '09 season. GT will have to wait to see if they get in as a WC. San Jose St. and UAB are eliminated.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
Colorado St. 2-3 (+22)

As it turns out, GT wouldn't have automatically qualified even if they defeated UAB, because they'd lose the tiebreaker to Maryland. But, that 3rd group loss puts them on the WC bubble, where a win likely would have guaranteed advancement. GT cracking the top four WC contenders officially eliminates Auburn from the tournament.

7 Groups to go in the group stage of the tournament. Up next, Group N, featuring #14 Nebraska.

[molson]

GROUP N

#14 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-4)
East Carolina (Conference USA, 7-1, 9-5)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 5-3, 5-7)
Rice (Conference USA, 2-6, 2-10)
Syracuse (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)
Vanderbilt (SEC, 0-8, 2-10)

Week 1:
Nebraska 33, East Carolina 8
Florida Atlantic 45, Rice 34
Syracuse 36, Vanderbilt 17

The Cornhuskers will try to avoid the fate of Georgia Tech - they open things up with a solid win over their top competition in the group, East Carolina. It's Owls v. Owls as as Florida Atlantic tops Rice, and gets an early bead on what should be a complete free-for-all for spot #3 in this group. My Syracuse Orange look good and get a big win v. the Commodores. Syracuse takes on East Carolina next, a win there and they probably advance.

Week 2:
Nebraska 56, Florida Atlantic 9
Syracuse 50, Eastern Carolina 37
Vanderbilt 24, Rice 14

Nebraska is putting up scores like the seeded teams earlier in the tournament, here routing Florida Atlantic. Syracuse gets a huge win in a shootout v. Eastern Carolina that wasn't as close as the score indicated. They have a great shot to finish #2 in this group now, and will get their shot at a huge upset and the group title v. Nebraska. Vanderbilt pulls ahead of Rice late, scoring 11 in the final quarter.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Nebraska 2-0 (+72)
Syracuse 2-0 (+32)
Vanderbilt 1-1 (-9)
Florida Atlantic 1-1 (-36)
Rice 0-2 (-21)
East Carolina 0-2 (-38)

With a few of the higher ranked teams having a little trouble earlier in the tournament, Nebraska has a chance to really improve their standing and get a top 10 seed or so heading into the next round if they can run the table. Tough start for East Carolina, but they have a chance to make up some ground as their schedule gets easy from here.

[molson]

GROUP N

Week 3
Nebraska 79, Rice 7
East Carolina 51, Vanderbilt 13
Syracuse 62, Florida Atlantic 41

Nebraska takes care of business in dominating fashion, continuing their quest for a top seed going into the next round. East Carolina recovers and blasts Vanderbilt. If they can get by Rice and Florida Atlantic in the next two weeks, they should be OK to advance. Syracuse impresses again, getting their 3rd win the group - 3 wins appears to pretty much guarantee advancement

Week 4
Syracuse 21, Nebraska 17
East Carolina 55, Rice 10
Vanderbilt 49, Florida Atlantic 29

Shocking upset for the Orange! With only Rice left on the schedule, the Orange are looking at a stunningly improbable 5-0 group sweep and strong seed heading into the next round. I swear I'm not giving them any advantages here. Their defense was solid, and they trailed Nebraska by only 17-7 entering the 2nd half. They then pitched a 2nd half shutout against the Cornhuskers and got 2 2nd half TDs for the final margin. Nebraska had a chance to win in the final minute, but were stopped on 4th and goal at the Syracuse 3. Delonte Carter, Mike Williams, and Greg Paulus getting it done. Crushing loss for the Cornhuskers, who go from a likely top 5 or top 10 seed going into the next round to now falling to the middle of the pack. East Carolina gets a step closer to recovering from their 0-2 start with a dominating victory over Rice. The Commodores get a nice win, but with Nebraska up next for them, it probably won't matter.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Syracuse 4-0 (+57)
Nebraska 3-1 (+140)
East Carolina 2-2 (+45)
Vanderbilt 2-2 (-27)
Florida Atlantic 1-3 (-77)
Rice 0-4 (-138)

Week 5 Matchups:
Nebraska v. Vanderbilt
Syracuse v. Rice
East Carolina v. Florida Atlantic

Not only has Syracuse stunningly already wrapped up advancement, they're a bad Rice team away from a 5-0 group sweep, a strong point differential, and a top 10 or 15 seed in the next round. Even if the Orange lose to Rice, they've officially clinched the #1 spot in this group. Nebraska gets #2 with a win against Vanderbilt. Nebraska has virtually clinched advancement, as something insane would have to happen with the point differentials for them to miss out even with an upset loss, and a three-way tie with Vandy and East Carolina. The Pirates advance with a win.

[molson]

GROUP N

Week 5
Nebraska 51, Vanderbilt 10
Rice 28, Syracuse 26
Florida Atlantic 43, East Carolina 31

The Cornhuskers do indeed wrap up the #2 spot. Then the wackiness of the group continues, as Rice robs Syracuse of a 5-0 group stage with an upset win. Rice actually led 28-10 going into the final quarter, before a furious Orange rally cut the lead to 8 with under 6 minutes to play. Syracuse did get a final TD with 7 seconds left to close to within 2, but then failed to convert the 2-point conversion. In another upset to close out the group, Florida Atlantic stuns the Pirates, which sets up a 3-way tie for the final automatic spot.

Final Group N standings, with point differential in parenthesis:

#1 Syracuse 4-1 (+55)
#2 Nebraska 4-1 (+181)
#3 Florida Atlantic 2-3 (-65)
#4 East Carolina 2-3 (+33)
#5 Vanderbilt 2-3 (-68)
#6 Rice 1-4 (-136)

Syracuse wins the group, and has a top 20 seed going into the next round. Definitely the most surprising group winner yet. Nebraska gets #2, and I'm guessing that 4-1, +181 resume is going to far surpass any of the other #2 seeds - which would put Nebraska at #21 going into the next round. The tournament's somewhat-quirky-in-retrospect 3-way tiebreaker system pushes Florida Atlantic into the next round at #3. Florida Atlantic/East Carolina/Vanderbilt all finished 2-3, and all went 1-1 within that group. The lowest of the 3 in point differential is Vanderbilt, so they drop out. That leaves East Carolina and Florida Atlantic, and the Owls win that tiebreaker via head-to-head outcome. The Pirates aren't done yet though, as their solid point differential moves them into the current Wild Card top 4. So Vanderbilt and Rice are eliminated, as is Colorado St, who drops out of Wild Card contention.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

If someone in the final 6 groups finishes #4 in their group, but with a better resume than 2-3, +33, Georgia Tech and East Carolina will go down to the 3rd tiebreaker - winning % of teams they defeated. East Carolina defeated Rice and Vanderbilt, who had a combined record of 3-7. Georgia Tech defeated Troy and San Jose St, who had a combined record of 5-5. So GT would get the nod there (of course they could both be out if two more 4th teams surpass them)

Next up group O, which is a much stronger group than the last few. #15 Pittsburgh, Air Force, Missouri, Oregon St, Sun Belt power Middle Tennessee St, and Tulsa. Tough draw for Pittsburgh, who appears to have the toughest road yet of any seeded team.

[molson]

GROUP O

#15 Pittsburgh (Big East, 5-2, 10-3)
Air Force (MWC, 5-3, 8-5)
Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt, 7-1, 10-3)
Missouri (Big 12, 4-4, 8-5)
Oregon St. (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
Tulsa (Conference USA, 3-5, 5-7)

Week 1
Air Force 27, Pittsburgh 10
Missouri 51, Middle Tennessee 17
Oregon St. 41, Tulsa 26

Pittsburgh continues the trend of ranked teams having trouble as we drop lower into the poll, as they can only put up 10 v. Air Force. On the other hand, Missouri and Oregon St. take care of business v. the two non-BCS schools in the group.

Week 2:
Pittsburgh 24, Middle Tennessee 22
Air Force 38, Oregon St. 27
Missouri 34, Tulsa 17

The Panthers avoid disaster v. Middle Tennessee and hold on for a close victory. Down 8, the Blue Raiders completed a TD drive with 1:20 to go, but then couldn't convert the potential game-tying 2-point conversion. Air Force goes to 2-0 and with Tulsa and Middle TN still on their schedule, they're in great shape. Missouri has completed the easy part of their schedule 2-0 after doubling up the Golden Hurricane

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:

Missouri 2-0 (+51)
Air Force 2-0 (+28)
Oregon St. 1-1 (+4)
Pittsburgh 1-1 (-15)
Tulsa 0-2 (-32)
Middle Tennessee 0-2 (-36)

There's a clear top 4/bottom 2 dynamic here. If anyone is upset by one of the bottom two they're in big trouble and could be the odd team out. Tough start for Pittsburgh.

[molson]

GROUP O

Week 3
Pittsburgh 44, Missouri 37
Air Force 45, Tulsa 31
Oregon St. 50, Middle Tennessee 38

Enormous win for Pitt. The game was tied late, and the Tigers missed a long FG that would have given them the lead in the final minute. Pitt took over on their own 39 with 45 seconds left, and got a 36-yard TD run a few plays later. Air Force gets their 3rd win to virtually guarantee advancement. Oregon St. keeps pace though like Pitt the week before, they do have a little trouble with the pesky Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.

Week 4
Pittsburgh 55, Oregon St. 41
Missouri 27, Air Force 9
Tulsa 23, Middle Tennessee 15

The Beavers led by 11 in the 3rd quarter but Pittsburgh exploded for 27 unanswered points to get another huge win. Oregon St., at the moment, appears to be the odd team out of the automatic advancement picture, as Missouri passes them by with a big win over previously unbeaten Air Force. After nearly upsetting Pitt, and playing competitively against Oregon St, it was surprising to see Middle Tennessee lose against Tulsa and stay winless.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Missouri 3-1 (+62)
Air Force 3-1 (+24)
Pittsburgh 3-1 (+6)
Oregon St. 2-2 (+2)
Tulsa 1-3 (-38)
Middle Tennessee 0-4 (-56)

Week 5 Matchups:
Pittsburgh v. Tulsa
Air Force v. Middle Tennessee
Oregon St. v. Missouri

The top 4 teams all control their own destiny going into the final week. Pittsburgh and Air Force just need to take care of business against lesser teams, and the winner of the Oregon St/Missouri game earns automatic advancement as well. Things will only get crazy in the tiebreaker department if either the Panthers or Falcons are upset, AND if Oregon St. can beat Missouri. Then we'll have multiple 3-2 teams. Tulsa and Middle Tennessee are both already eliminated.

[molson]

GROUP O

Week 5
Pittsburgh 26, Tulsa 21
Middle Tennessee 27, Air Force 20
Missouri 46, Oregon St. 35

The Panthers again fail to inspire confidence against a weaker team, but they get the job done and will advance. Tulsa got the ball down to the Pitt 11 with less than two minutes to go, but then threw an interception and that was that. The Blue Raiders won't go home without a win, as they shock Air Force by 7. The Tigers outscore Oregon St. 23-7 in the final quarter to leave nothing to chance and clinch advancement.

Final Group O standings, with point differential in parenthesis:
#1 Pittsburgh 4-1 (+11)
#2 Missouri 4-1 (+73)
#3 Air Force 3-2 (+17)
#4 Oregon St. 2-3 (-9)
#5 Tulsa 1-4 (-43)
#6 Middle Tennessee 1-4 (-49)

Pitt will probably be the last ranked group winner with that paltry point differential, but they'll take it. Missouri locks up #2, with a point differential that will put them near the top of the 2nd ranked group teams in the next round. The Falcons still advance despite the week 5 upset loss, but after the 3-0 group start, that has to be a bit of a disappointment. Though if they had defeated Middle Tennessee, they only would have ended up one spot higher. Oregon St's 2-3 record and negative point differential doesn't get them anywhere near the top four the of the current wild card standings, so they're officially eliminated, along with Tulsa and Middle Tennessee. The Beavers were able to defeat the worst two teams in this group, but not anyone else.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

Up next, Group P - perhaps the toughest group, with 6 BCS teams.

[molson]

GROUP P

#16 Wisconsin (Big 10, 5-3, 10-3)
Arizona St. (PAC-10, 2-7, 4-8)
California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5)
Georgia (SEC, 4-4, 8-5)
Kansas St (Big 12, 4-4, 6-6)
North Carolina (ACC, 4-4, 8-5)

Week 1
Wisconsin 30, Arizona St. 17
California 44, Georgia 14
North Carolina 29, Kansas St. 6

With no small-conference lightweights in this group, it was critical for the Badgers to get off to a good start and beat the only team in this group with a losing 2009 record, the Arizona St. Sun Devils. California wipes out the Bulldogs. This tournament is tending to be high-scoring, so when you see a team only score 6 it stands out - either a great sign for the Tar Heel defense or a bad one for the Wildcats offense. North Carolina scores the final 26 points in that one for the win.

Week 2:
California 49, Wisconsin 14.
Arizona St. 38, Kansas St. 17
Georgia 36, North Carolina 14

Cal is looking very good thus far, as they lay a beatdown on the seeded Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers scored first and last, and the Golden Bears got 49 unanswered points in between. Arizona St. shows a pulse and puts Kansas St. in a bad 0-2 hole. Georgia blasts the Tar Heels to help further muddy the waters in this group thus far.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
California 2-0 (+65)
Arizona St. 1-1 (+8)
North Carolina 1-1 (+1)
Georgia 1-1 (-8)
Wisconsin 1-1 (-22)
Kansas St. 0-2 (-44)

A lot of parity here thus far, which isn't a surprise. It will be interesting to see if Cal can keep up it's awesome start.

[molson]

GROUP P

Week 3:
Georgia 40, Wisconsin 22
North Carolina 22, Arizona St. 14
California 34, Kansas St. 7

Ranked Wisconsin is in trouble, and is fading under the weight of this tough group. Here, Georgia beats them pretty convincingly. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels trailed 14-3 entering the final quarter but outscored the Sun Devils 19-0 in the final quarter for the win. North Carolina didn't take their first lead until a 10-yard TD run with 2:40 left. California keeps on rolling - they haven't given up more than 14 points in any game yet.

Week 4:
Wisconsin 35, Kansas St. 34, 2 OT
Georgia 24, Arizona St. 17.
North Carolina 43, California 10

In a must-win situation, the reeling Badgers get by the winless Kansas St. Wildcats in double OT. Wisconsin trailed 14-3 entering the final quarter but then they got 2 TDs to take an 18-14 lead. Later, a 15-play, 70-yard drive led to a the go-ahead TD for Kansas St. with just 53 seconds left. That was just enough time for Wisconsin, who started at their own 33, and got all the way down to the Kansas St. 15 in 4 plays. They nailed the game tying FG as time expired. K-State scored a TD on the first play of OT with a long run. Wisconsin answered with a TD on their first OT play to send the game to a second OT. There, the Badgers got another TD (with the help of a Wildcat unnecessary roughness penalty). K-State scored again as well, but missed the extra point kick. Game over. That kicker for Kansas St. had previously missed FGs of 35 and 38 yards. Elsewhere, Georgia gets their third straight win, turning away Arizona St. California's stunningly good start takes an even more stunning detour, and they're destroyed by North Carolina, who put themselves in great position to steal this group.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
California 3-1 (+59)
North Carolina 3-1 (+42)
Georgia 3-1 (+17)
Wisconsin 2-2 (-39)
Arizona St. 1-3 (-7)
Kansas St. 0-4 (-72)

Week 5 Matchups:
Wisconsin v. North Carolina
California v. Arizona St.
Georgia v. Kansas St.

The top three (North Carolina, California, and Georgia) obviously control their own destiny and advance with wins. If they all win, North Carolina is almost guaranteed to win the group (barring something ridiculous with the point differentials). Arizona St. and Kansas St. can't crack the top 4. The only potential party crasher is thus Wisconsin, which is in big-time danger of becoming the 2nd ranked team to fail to automatically advance, and their terrible point differential precludes them from wild card contention if they end up 4th. But if Wisconsin can beat North Carolina and the other two 3-1 teams win, they're in. If either or both of the other 3-1 teams are upset, then we get into 3-way tiebreakers and it's unclear who will emerge.

[molson]

GROUP P

Week 5
North Carolina 12, Wisconsin 0
California 31, Arizona St. 21
Georgia 40, Kansas St. 37, 2 OT

The Badgers complete their tournament disaster, officially eliminating themselves by failing to put up any points v. the Tar Heels defense. The Wisconsin loss also clinches advancement for Cal and Georgia - though as it turns out, neither needed the help. Cal disposes of PAC-10 rival Arizona St.

And in maybe the most ridiculous loss of the tournament yet, Kansas St. loses their 2nd straight double OT game, this time to Georgia. Kansas St. tied the game at 27 with a TD run with 2:34 remaining. On its ensuing possession, Georgia was intercepted by Kansas St, who returned the ball to the Bulldog 22 with 2:00 remaining. Kansas St. couldn't get a first down though, and had to settle for a FG attempt from their maligned kicker, who nailed a 35-yarder with 1:33 left for the lead. Georgia got the ball back, and it was quickly a 4-and-out, turnover on downs. But Georgia used their timeouts and held Kansas St. to a quick 3-and-out, and got the ball back at their own 14 with just 30 seconds left, needing a FG to tie. Georgia then completed a desperation 53-yard pass, setting up a 46-yard game-tieing FG as time expired. In the first OT, Kansas St. scored a TD (and got the extra point). Georgia responded with a TD on 4th and goal (and PAT). Georgia could only manage a FG on the possession in the 2nd OT. Kansas St had some trouble moving the ball as well, and had to settle for a 41-yard FG attempt from their shaky kicker - wide left, game over. It was the kicker's 3rd FG miss of the game.

Final Group P standings, with point differential in parenthesis:
#1 North Carolina 4-1 (+54)
#2 California 4-1 (+69)
#3 Georgia 4-1 (+20)
#4 Wisconsin 2-3 (-51)
#5 Arizona St. 1-4 (-17)
#6 Kansas St. 0-5 (-75)

North Carolina, who were just 4-4 in the ACC in 2009, is another semi-surprising group winner. They win the tiebreaker here with Cal and Georgia, who also both advance. The three teams all finished 1-1 amongst themselves. Georgia had the lowest point differential, so they drop out. That left NC and Cal, and NC had defeated (in fact, had dominated), Cal in week 4. Cal gets the #2 spot thanks to their head-to-head win v. Georgia. Arizona St and Kansas St are eliminated, as is #16 Wisconsin, whose 2-3, (-51) resume isn't anything close to the wild card contenders. With #13 Georgia Tech still clinging to their Wild Card hopes, the Badgers become the very first ranked team to officially be eliminated from the tournament.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

With only four groups left to play, the top 4 in the wild card race can start to feel a little hope/confidence. If the #4 team in the next group doesn't surpass GT/East Carolina, Southern Mississippi officially clinches advancement.

Next up, Group Q, another very strong group that features two ranked teams - #17 LSU, and #24 Clemson, and then a quartet of lower-tiered schools that could all definitely compete for advancement (Fresno St, Illinois, Ohio, Rutgers)

[molson]

GROUP Q

#17 LSU (SEC, 5-3, 9-4)
#24 Clemson (ACC, 6-2, 9-5)
Fresno St. (WAC, 6-2, 8-5)
Illinois (Big 10, 2-6, 3-9)
Ohio (Mid American, 7-1, 9-5)
Rutgers (Big East, 3-4, 9-4)

Week 1
LSU 28, Clemson 26
Fresno St. 42, Illinois 35
Ohio 29, Rutgers 17

In an early battle that will likely determine the group winner - LSU holds off Clemson by 2. Pretty wild finish here. LSU hit a FG with 3:39 left to go up by 8. Clemson can't get anything going on offense, but does force LSU to punt with just 11 seconds left. Clemson returns the punt 64 yards for a TD as time expires. They need a 2-point conversion with no time on the clock to tie, but can't convert. Illinois, trying to regain some Big-10 pride after Wisconsin crapped the bed, blow a 15-point 4th quarter lead and lose to Fresno St. The Bulldogs broke the final tie and scored the game-winning TD with under a minute to play. The Ohio Bobcats, who had a great 2009 season in the Mid-American conference, beat the Scarlet Knights

Week 2:
LSU 48, Fresno St. 28
Clemson 42, Ohio 20
Rutgers 35, Illinois 10

Nice win for LSU against a dangerous Fresno St. team. Clemson avoids an 0-2 start and gets a lopsided win v. the Ohio Bobcats. Rutgers also overcomes a week 1 loss by defeating Illinois.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
LSU 2-0 (+22)
Clemson 1-1 (+20)
Rutgers 1-1 (+13)
Ohio 1-1 (-10)
Fresno St. 1-1 (-13)
Illinois 0-2 (-32)

LSU and Clemson are both very much in control so far, mostly because they've already dealt with each other and have a much easier schedule from here on out. Of the remaining 1-1 teams besides Clemson, Rutgers still has to deal with both LSU and Clemson, so they have a bit of an uphill climb - their loss to Ohio was certainly not helpful.

[molson]

GROUP Q

Week 3
Illinois 38, LSU 31
Clemson 48, Rutgers 21
Ohio 55, Fresno St. 38

Illinois shakes things up in the group with a win over LSU, who previous to this game, had seemed poised to avoid the fates of Georgia Tech and Wisconsin. LSU had a chance for a game-tieing TD with under 2 minutes to play, got down to the Illinois 12, but threw an interception in the end zone. Clemson scores the final 29 points in their game against Rutgers to avoid any upset. Ohio gets a big win over Fresno St, to join, for the moment, LSU and Clemson as the top 3 in this group (all have 2-1 records). The Bobcats get their shot against LSU next week, and even if they can't win there, they have a winnable game for that magic 3rd group win v. Illinois in week 5.

Week 4
Ohio 38, LSU 10
Clemson 24, Illinois 13
Rutgers 45, Fresno St. 20

Another stunning loss for LSU, and that means another ranked team in big danger of elimination. This one wasn't even close. Ohio could do some damage, they're certainly one of of the stronger non-BCS schools in this tournament, and maybe a top-40 or so team talent-wise. Clemson is quietly taking advantage of LSU's implosion, as they win their 3rd straight. And in something of an elimination game between teams with 1-2 records, Rutgers handles Fresno St with relative ease.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Clemson 3-1 (+58)
Ohio 3-1 (+35)
Rutgers 2-2 (+11)
LSU 2-2 (-13)
Illinois 1-3 (-36)
Fresno St. 1-3 (-55)

Week 5 Matchups:
LSU v. Rutgers
Clemson v. Fresno St.
Ohio v. Illinois

In week 5, Clemson would the group with a win over the Bulldogs (since they own the head-to-head tiebreaker v. Ohio). If Clemson is upset, the door opens for Ohio to steal the group with a win v. Illinois. No matter what, both Clemson and Ohio are already into the next round. That's because LSU and Rutgers play each other in week 5, so one of them is going to drop their 3rd game in group play. LSU can overcome their disastrous weeks 3 and 4 and clinch advancement with a win against Rutgers, in what has turned out to be a virtual playoff game - the winner goes on, the loser goes home. Fresno St. and Illinois are both already eliminated. Whoever finishes #4 in this group isn't going to crack the top 4 of the wild card standings, so Southern Mississippi is almost guaranteed to clinch advancement after week 5 as well.

[molson]

GROUP Q

Week 5
LSU 24, Rutgers 3
Clemson 45, Fresno St. 26
Ohio 40, Illinois 6

As we get towards the lower groups, things have been getting crazier, but here in the final week of Group Q, everything goes as expected. LSU avoids an embarrassing elimination with a dominating defensive performance v. Rutgers. Clemson clinches the #1 spot in the group by taking out Fresno St. And Ohio continues to make its case that they're for real by wiping the floor with Illinois.

Final Group Q standings, with point differential in parenthesis:
#1 Clemson 4-1 (+77)
#2 Ohio 4-1 (+69)
#3 LSU 3-2 (+8)
#4 Rutgers 2-3 (-10)
#5 Fresno St. 1-4 (-74)
#6 Illinois 1-4 (-70)

Clemson takes the group title with 4 straight wins after their opening week loss to LSU. LSU stumbled after that early win, but recovered in time to advance. They'll be a lower seeded team entering the next stage, which could be very bad news for some unlucky top 20 seed that has to deal with them. Illinois, Fresno St are out, as is Rutgers, who can't crack the top 4 of the wild card standings. Ohio is a very intriguing team going forward. They could make a run.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

With only three groups left to play, the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles have officially advanced to the next round. They'll have to take on one of the top 4 seeds in the preliminary knock-out round.

Next up, Group R, which like group Q, features two ranked teams, #18 Utah, and #21 Texas Tech.

[molson]

GROUP R

#18 Utah (MWC, 6-2, 10-3)
#21 Texas Tech (Big 12, 5-3, 9-4)
Arkansas St. (Sun Belt, 3-5, 5-8)
Ball St. (Mid American, 2-6, 2-10)
Florida St (ACC, 4-6, 7-8)
South Carolina (SEC, 3-5, 7-6)

Week 1:
Utah 45, Texas Tech 44
Ball St. 39, Arkansas St. 33, OT
South Carolina 57, Florida St. 21

A 13-play, 65 yard drive led to the game-winning TD for Utah with 28 seconds to go in their matchup with Texas Tech. This was a wild game that featured 9 lead changes. That is the highest profile matchup this group has to offer, but the lowest profile matchup, Ball St. v. Arkansas St, may have topped it for drama. Arkansas St. led Ball St. 33-10 entering the final quarter. Ball St got a FG and 2 TDs to close the gap to 33-26 (they missed the extra point kick on the 2nd TD). After the 2nd TD, Ball St. kicked away to Arkansas St, who promptly fumbled on their first play after the kickoff, giving Ball St. the ball at the Arkansas St. 26 with 2:33 to go. But Ball St. fumbled the ball on the very next play, giving the Indians the ball back. Ball St. held Arkansas St. to a 3-and-out, forced a punt, and then drove 49 plays in 8 yards to score the game tieing TD as time expired. In OT, Ball St. got the ball first, but missed another extra point. That gave Arkansas St. an opportunity, but they fumbled away the ball on their second offensive play of OT, giving Ball St. the crazy win. The only team to manage a convincing victory week 1 was South Carolina, who destroyed the Seminoles.

Week 2:
Utah 48, Arkansas St. 17
Texas Tech 62, Florida St 17
South Carolina 61, Ball St. 20

The Utes continue their strong start and drill the Red Wolves of Arkansas St. Elsewhere, Texas Tech recovers from their week 1 heartbreak loss, as Florida St. is again completely overmatched. The Gamecocks continue their monster start, beating up Ball St. in a win that included 5 TDs in the 2nd quarter.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
South Carolina 2-0 (+77)
Utah 2-0 (+32)
Texas Tech 1-1 (+44)
Ball St. 1-1 (-35)
Arkansas St. 0-2 (-37)
Florida St. 0-2 (-81)

The Group R games thus far have either been close shoutouts, or major blowouts. As a result, a pretty clear picture has emerged. Texas Tech, Utah, and South Carolina are the big 3 here. South Carolina has been awesome, but they haven't had to deal with Utah or Texas Tech yet. But with Arkansas St. still on their schedule, they seem a sure bet to get at least that all-important 3rd win and move on. Florida St. has been an absolute catastrophe thus far.

[molson]

GROUP R

Week 3
Utah 58, Ball St. 3
South Carolina 50, Texas Tech 29
Arkansas St. 41, Florida St. 26

Utah looking dominant - they could be the first team to go undefeated through group play in quite a while. It's looking like the Group R title will go down to week 5 when the Utes take on South Carolina, who is also still undefeated after defeating Texas Tech. Florida St continues their horrid play, collapsing here in the 4th quarter to lose to Arkansas St. The Seminoles led by 2 entering the final quarter, but the 4th quarter belonged to the Red Wolves, who outscored Florida St. 24-7 in the final frame.

Week 4
Utah 62, Florida St. 20
Texas Tech 59, Ball St. 9
South Carolina 17, Arkansas St. 13

Utah and Texas St assert their seeding and dominance. It was a little tougher for South Carolina, who didn't take their first lead until after a 13 play, 80 yard drive that culminated in a rushing TD with 1:50 left in the game. But the gamecocks move to 4-0, setting up the "Group R Championship Game" v. 4-0 Utah next week.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Utah 4-0 (+129)
South Carolina 4-0 (+102)
Texas Tech 2-2 (+73)
Arkansas St. 1-3 (-26)
Ball St. 1-3 (-140)
Florida St. 0-4 (-138)

Week 5 Matchups:
Utah v. South Carolina
Texas Tech v. Arkansas St.
Ball St. v. Florida St.

We will have an undefeated group winner, as Utah and South Carolina square off in week 5 for the #1 spot in the group and a top 20 seed entering the preliminary knockout stage. The loser settles for the #2 spot in the group, but will still advance. The winner of the Texas Tech/Arkansas St. matchup earns the #3 spot and final automatic qualifier. The loser is out (which will clinch a Wild Card spot for Nevada) It's hard to believe that the Red Wolves, with a 1-3 record, control their own destiny, but the dominance of Utah and South Carolina has setup the possibility for Arkansas St. to pull a huge upset and advance. Ball St. and Florida St are already eliminated, and play each other week 5.

[molson]

GROUP R

Week 5:
Utah 30, South Carolina 20
Texas Tech 44, Arkansas St. 20
Florida St. 30, Ball St. 17

The 18th ranked Utes become the first team since 12th ranked BYU several groups ago to run the table and go undefeated. Utah pretty much controlled this week 5 matchup, as South Carolina didn't get any closer than 9 after the middle of the 2nd quarter. Arkansas St. had an early 7-3 lead in their upset bid v. Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders cruised after that and will advance. Finally, Florida St. gets their first and only win the tournament, but not by that much, against Ball St.

Final Group R standings, with point differential in parenthesis:
#1 Utah 5-0 (+139)
#2 South Carolina 4-1 (+92)
#3 Texas Tech 3-2 (+95)
#4 Arkansas St.1-4 (-48)
#5 Florida St. 1-4 (-125)
#6 Ball St. 1-4 (-153)

Utah wins the group, South Carolina and Texas Tech qualify as well. The excellent point differentials for all three teams mean decent seeds in the next round. The bottom three in the group and didn't put up much competition. Tiebreakers allow Arkansas St to finish 4th, but obviously they're way, way out of wild card contention, and ahve been officially eliminated, along with Florida St. and Ball St. The Seminoles finish out of the basement thanks to their week 5 win.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

With only 2 groups left to play, Nevada has clinched a Wild Card spot. The resumes of GT and East Carolina will be difficult to overcome by any 4th place team in the final two groups, so they're looking good to advance. Thus, #13th ranked Georgia Tech is likely going to end up as the the #63 seed in the preliminary knock-out stage, which means a very interesting matchup with the tournament's #2 overall seed.

Up next, the 2nd-to-last group, Group S, with #19 Miami, who will be joined by 4 other BCS schools (and poor Marshall).

[molson]

GROUP S

#19 Miami, FL (ACC, 5-3, 9-4)
Baylor (Big 12, 1-7, 4-8)
Boston College (ACC, 5-3, 8-5)
Iowa St (Big 12, 3-5, 7-6)
Marshall (Conference USA, 4-4, 7-6)
Oklahoma St (Big 12, 6-2, 9-4)

Week 1
Miami (FL) 37, Baylor 6
Boston College 16, Iowa St. 7
Oklahoma St. 61, Marshall 38

Good start for Miami, dominating a Baylor team who was pretty bad in the 2009 Big 12, but did manage a few out-of-conference wins. B.C. defeats the Cyclones in one of the lowest scoring games of the tournament thus far. Marshall jumped out over Oklahoma St. 31-7, but the Cowboys exploded after that for 54 points over the final 2 1/2 quarters.

Week 2:
Boston College 37, Miami (FL) 14
Marshall 26, Baylor 14
Oklahoma St. 52, Iowa St. 3

In an all-ACC battle, Boston College surprises the ranked Miami Hurricanes to take early control of Group S. After the way Marshall started early against Oklahoma St. last week, it wasn't surprising to see them take out Baylor here. Still, the Thundering Herd needed 3 4th quarter FGs to get the win. Baylor had a chance with a last second hail mary, but it fell incomplete in the end zone. And in a Big-12 matchup, the Oklahoma St. Cowboys again put up a ton of points, dropping 52 in Iowa St.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Oklahoma St. 2-0 (+72)
Boston College 2-0 (+32)
Miami (FL) 1-1 (+8)
Marshall 1-1 (-11)
Baylor 0-2 (-43)
Iowa St. 0-2 (-58)

Like in the last group, there appears to be a clear top-3 teams here primed to advance - Oklahoma St., Boston College, and Miami. Marshall is the only other team with a win in the first two weeks, but that was against Baylor. There doesn't appear to be a huge difference between those two top-3 games, so seeding for the next round is critical and completely up in the air.

[molson]

GROUP S

Week 3:
Miami (FL) 34, Iowa St. 16
Oklahoma St. 38, Baylor 14
Boston College 40, Marshall 3

The Hurricanes get back on track in an all-natural-disasters matchup against the Cyclones. That game would have been even more lopsided if Iowa St. didn't manage two TDs in the final 10 minutes. Oklahoma St. doesn't put up nearly as much points as they did the previous two weeks, but 38 was plenty to defeat Baylor. Boston College further affirms my description of a "big 3" in this group by destroying Marshall.

Week 4:
Miami (FL) 61, Marshall 38
Iowa St. 67, Baylor 64, 5 OT
Boston College 27, Oklahoma St. 6

The Thundering Heard got 3 4th quarter TDs to make the final score somewhat respectable against Miami, but are still blown out.

Neither Iowa St. or Baylor are going anywhere in this tournament, but that didn't stop them from having the tournament's longest and wildest game, as the Iowa St. edges Baylor in 5 OTs. Iowa St. took a 7 point lead in regulation with a TD with 1:15 remaining. But then after a good kickoff return, Baylor got 61 yards in 7 plays, and just 40 seconds, to tie the game with under 30 seconds to go in regulation with a rushing TD. In the first OT, both teams got a TD and extra point. In the second OT, same story (Iowa St converted a 4th and 2 to keep their TD drive alive). Third OT - both teams scored a TD and a 2-point conversion. Fourth OT - same story, both teams scored a TD and a 2-point conversion. Finally, in the 5th OT, Iowa St. got the ball first and had to settle for a 37 yard FG that sailed "just inside the uprights". Baylor couldn't take advantage, and threw an interception in their 5th OT possession to end the game.

Finally, in a battle of 3-0 teams, Boston College puts up a stunningly impressive defensive effort against Oklahoma St, giving up only 6 points, to further take control of the group.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Boston College 4-0 (+90)
Oklahoma St. 3-1 (+75)
Miami (FL) 3-1 (+49)
Marshall 1-3 (-71)
Iowa St. 1-3 (-73)
Baylor 0-4 (-70)

Week 5 Matchups:
Miami (FL) v. Oklahoma St.
Boston College v. Baylor
Marshall v. Iowa St.

Nothing about weeks 2 and 3 certainly altered my perception of this group that there was a clear "big 3". In fact, the big 3, Boston College, Oklahoma St, and Miami, have already clinched advancement into the next round. Iowa St, Marshall, and Baylor are all officially eliminated, as none will come anywhere close to wild card contention. That means Georgia Tech will be into the next round.

Boston College has already clinched the #1 spot in the group. Even if they are upset by Baylor, they'd win the head-to-head tiebreaker against the winner of the Miami/Oklahoma St. game. The winner of that Miami/Oklahoma St game thus earns the #2 spot, with the loser finishing #3.

[molson]

GROUP S

Week 5:
Oklahoma St. 22, Miami (FL) 17
Boston College 44, Baylor 17
Marshall 38, Iowa St. 24

The difference between a #2 and #3 group spot is potentially very huge, as a #2 team probably gets to play another #2 team in the preliminary knockout stage, where a #3 team has to deal with a #1 group team. So with that in mind, the Oklahoma St. Cowboys get a pretty big win over ranked Miami, to clinch the #2 spot, and Miami has to settle for #3. Miami got down to the Oklahoma St. 4 yard line in the final two minutes with a chance to win the game, but turned the ball over on downs. The Boston College Eagles become the first non-ranked team to run the table in group play, going 5-0. They wipe out Baylor in week 5, who finishes winless. An 18-0 4th quarter run by Marshall allows them to lockup the #4 spot, though they're certainly nowhere close to wild card contention.

Final Group S standings, with point differential in parenthesis
#1 Boston College 5-0 (+117)
#2 Oklahoma St. 4-1 (+80)
#3 Miami (FL) 3-2 (+44)
#4 Marshall 2-3 (-57)
#5 Iowa St. 1-4 (-87)
#6 Baylor 0-5 (-97)

Kind of an interesting symmetry in the final standings of Group S, as each team finishes with a different record, and the point differential goes down in order throughout the group. Boston College gets a huge boost from group play, they'll enter the preliminary knockout stage in a great spot. Oklahoma St. and Miami (FL) also advance, however the 3rd place finish for ranked Miami is sort of a dissapointment. Marshall, Iowa St, and Baylor are officially eliminated.

Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

With only one group left to play, Georgia Tech has officially salvaged a pretty horrid group play run to advance as a wild card (they win the "strength of victory" tiebreaker from East Carolina). East Carolina is very likely to advance as well, but has to wait one more group to be sure.

Up next, the final group, Group T., featuring #20 Ole Miss. The group is otherwise somewhat weaker than the last few - though Notre Dame brings it some name recognition.

[molson]

GROUP T

#20 Ole Miss (SEC, 4-4, 9-4)
Eastern Michigan (Mid-American, 0-8, 0-12)
Kansas (Big 12, 1-7, 5-7)
Notre Dame (Independent, 6-6)
South Florida (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
Utah St. (WAC, 3-5, 4-8)

Week 1:
Ole Miss 76, Eastern Michigan 3
Kansas 51, Notre Dame 36
South Florida 42, Utah St. 20

The expected carnage of week 1 comes to fruition, and Ole Miss delivers a 73-point beating on Eastern Michigan, perhaps the worst team in the entire tournament. This group was definitely an advantageous draw for the Rebels. After Ole Miss, it seems like a free-for-all for the other two automatic spots, and the Kansas Jayhakws get off to a great start v. Notre Dame. After trailing at halftime, the South Florida Bulls score 4 unanswered 2nd half TDs to defeat Utah St.

Week 2:
Ole Miss 24, Kansas 6
South Florida 56, Eastern Michigan 17
Notre Dame 55, Utah St. 36

Ole Miss shows off the defense in week 2 - they have a great shot at a 5-0 group stage run. South Florida moves to 2-0, getting past the awful Eastern Michigan Eagles in dominating fashion. Notre Dame gets 42 2nd half points to break open a close game and defeat Utah St.

Standings after two weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Ole Miss 2-0 (+91)
South Florida 2-0 (+61)
Notre Dame 1-1 (+4)
Kansas 1-1 (-3)
Utah St. 0-2 (-41)
Eastern Michigan 0-2 (-112)

Ole Miss is putting up some big blowouts and with the weak nature of this group, they really have a chance to run the table with a huge point differential, and a top 5 or top 10 seeding in the preliminary knockout stage. Of course, they will have to get by South Florida. Notre Dame and Kansas are in the hunt as well, though Kansas has the early advantage with that head-to-head win. It's hard to see Utah St. or Eastern Michigan winning any game (except against each other).

[molson]

GROUP T

Week 3:
Ole Miss 62, Notre Dame 26
Utah St. 62, Eastern Michigan 7
Kansas 30, South Florida 14

Ole Miss continues their streak of carnage, blowing out Notre Dame. Utah St. enjoys what will probably be its only win of the tournament, destroying Eastern Michigan. Kansas tightens things up a bit amongst the top 4 teams by defeating South Florida.

Week 4:
South Florida 31, Ole Miss 24
Notre Dame 48, Eastern Michigan 34
Kansas 51, Utah St. 49

Ole Miss' dreams of a 5-0 group run come crashing down with a loss to South Florida. Ole miss got within 7 with about 10 minutes left in the game. On their next possession, they managed to get all the way down to the South Florida 13, but then fumbled there. They never got closer. Then, it's Notre Dame's turn to beat up on Eastern Michigan - though they play with fire there and only win by 14. The Fighting Irish trailed in that game as late as with 6:30 to go in the 3rd quarter. Kansas keeps pace with a wild shootout win v. Utah St. The game there wasn't quite as close as the score indicated, as Utah got a TD with 14 seconds left to close the gap to 2 points. Kansas led the game from the middle of the third quarter on.

Standings after four weeks, with point differential in parenthesis:
Ole Miss 3-1 (+120)
South Florida 3-1 (+52)
Kansas 3-1 (+15)
Notre Dame 2-2 (-18)
Utah St. 1-3 (+12)
Eastern Michigan 0-4 (-181)

Week 5 Matchups:
Ole Miss v. Utah St.
Eastern Michigan v. Kansas
Notre Dame v. South Florida

3 automatic spots are available, but 4 teams control their own destiny (since Notre dame plays South Florida in week 5). Any of those 4 teams win, they're onto the next round. Utah St. and Eastern Michigan are already eliminated. So obviously, Ole Miss and Kansas are in the best position, since they take on the lowly Aggies and Eagles, respectively. If they both win, Notre Dame v. South Florida is a virtual playoff game - win and move on, lose and go home.

[molson]

GROUP T

Week 5:
Ole Miss 52, Utah St. 23
Kansas 38, Eastern Michigan 28
South Florida 38, Notre Dame 24

Ole Miss and Kansas take care of business. Kansas had a bit of trouble, trailing Eastern Michigan 14-0 early, but they got their act together to win by 10. That setup South Florida v. Notre Dame as a win-or-go-home matchup, and the Bulls rose to the occasion, sending home the Fighting Irish.

Final Group T standings, with point differential in parenthesis
#1 South Florida 4-1 (+66)
#2 Ole Miss 4-1 (+149)
#3 Kansas 4-1 (+25)
#4 Notre Dame 2-3 (-32)
#5 Utah St. 1-4 (-17)
#6 Eastern Michigan 0-5 (-191)

Three 4-1 teams tie for the group lead. They all finished 1-1 against other members of that 3-team group. The team with the worst point differential, Kansas, drops out, leaving South Florida and Ole Miss. South Florida owns the head-to-head tiebreaker there, so they are the somewhat surprising winner of Group T. Ole Miss salvages the #2 spot (and an awesome point differential) thanks to their head-to-head tiebreaker advantage v. Kansas. Kansas is probably one of the only 4-1 3rd place teams, so they're probably looking at a #41 or #42 seed going into the next stage. Eastern Michigan and Utah St are eliminated, as is Notre Dame, who manages the 4th spot here, but doesn't have a good enough resume to qualify for the wild card.


Wild Card Standings:
Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
Nevada 2-3 (+41)
Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

With the final group complete, East Carolina clinches the #64 and final spot in the preliminary knock-out stage. Up next, those matchups revealed, and the group stage is broken down.

[molson]

PRELIMINARY KNOCK OUT STAGE SEEDING

We started with 120 teams, and with the group stage complete, 64 advance to the next round, the preliminary knock-out stage. Here, the teams are seeded 1-64. The first place group stage teams are seeded first, then the 2nd place teams, then the 3rd place teams, then the wild cards. Point differential is the first tiebreaker, followed by group winning % of teams defeated in the group stage, followed by total points scored in group stage (head-to-head tiebreaker doesn't come into play here since none of the tied teams would have played each other in group stage). In this stage, #1 plays #64, #2 plays #63, and so on. The winners of the matchups in the preliminary knock-out stage advance to the 32-team, final, championship knock-out stage, where the teams will be randomly re-seeded into a fixed bracket, single elimination tournament.

FIRST PLACE TEAMS
(2009 AP Top 25 Teams in Bold - of the top 25, only Wisconsin failed to advance)
#1 Alabama 5-0 (+281)
#2 TCU 5-0 (+262)
#3 Iowa 5-0 (+241)
#4 BYU 5-0 (+192)
#5 Virgina Tech 5-0 (+168)
#6 Texas 5-0 (+165)
#7 Ohio St. 5-0 (+154)
#8 Utah 5-0 (+139)
#9 Oregon 5-0 (+139)
#10 Boston College 5-0 (+117)
#11 Cincinnati 5-0 (+102)
#12 Florida 4-1 (+115)
#13 Clemson 4-1 (+77)
#14 USC 4-1 (+69)
#15 South Florida 4-1 (+66)
#16 Troy 4-1 (+59)
#17 Syracuse 4-1 (+55)
#18 North Carolina 4-1 (+54)
#19 Wyoming 4-1 (+41)
#20 Pittsburgh 4-1 (+11)

SECOND PLACE TEAMS
#21 Boise St. 4-1 (+199)
#22 Nebraska 4-1 (+181)
#23 Penn St. 4-1 (+177)
#24 Ole Miss 4-1 (+149)
#25 Oklahoma 4-1 (+135)
#26 Michigan St. 4-1 (+108)
#27 Central Florida 4-1 (+99)
#28 South Carolina 4-1 (+92)
#29 Oklahoma St. 4-1 (+80)
#30 Northwestern 4-1 (+78)
#31 Missouri 4-1 (+73)
#32 Tennessee 4-1 (+70)
#33 Ohio 4-1 (+69)
#34 California 4-1 (+69)
#35 Minnesota 4-1 (+56)
#36 Connecticut 4-1 (+46)
#37 Buffalo 4-1 (+41)
#38 Central Michigan 4-1 (+40)
#39 West Virginia 3-2 (+45)
#40 Stanford 3-2 (-49)

THIRD PLACE TEAMS
#41 Georgia 4-1 (+20)
#42 Kansas 4-1 (+15)
#43 Temple 4-1 (+2)
#44 Texas Tech 3-2 (+95)
#45 Miami (FL) 3-2 (+44)
#46 North Carolina St. 3-2 (+42)
#47 Michigan 3-2 (+25)
#48 Air Force 3-2 (+17)
#49 San Diego St. 3-2 (+16)
#50 Navy 3-2 (+13)
#51 Maryland 3-2 (+10)
#52 LSU 3-2 (+8)
#53 Arkansas 3-2 (-15)
#54 Louisiana Tech 3-2 (-32)
#55 Louisiana-Monroe 3-2 (-33)
#56 Louisville 2-3 (-16)
#57 Akron 2-3 (-16)
#58 Virginia 2-3 (-47)
#59 Florida International 2-3 (-51)
#60 Florida Atlantic 2-3 (-65)

WILD CARD TEAMS
#61 Southern Mississippi 3-2 (+64)
#62 Nevada 2-3 (+41)
#63 Georgia Tech 2-3 (+33)
#64 East Carolina 2-3 (+33)

[molson]

PRELIMINARY KNOCK-OUT STAGE MATCHUPS
(2009 Conference, 2009 Conference W/L, and 2009 Overall W/L in parenthesis)
(2009 AP Top 25 Teams in Bold)

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #64 East Carolina (Conference USA, 7-1, 9-5)
#2 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1) v. #63 Georgia Tech (ACC, 7-1, 11-3)
#3 Iowa (Big-10, 6-2, 11-2) v. #62 Nevada (WAC, 7-1, 8-5)
#4 BYU (MWC, 7-1, 11-2) v. # 61 Southern Mississippi (Conference USA, 5-3, 7-6)
#5 Virginia Tech (ACC, 6-2, 10-3) v. #60 Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 5-3, 5-7)
#6 Texas (Big 12, 8-0, 13-1) v. #59 Florida International (Sun Belt, 3-5, 3-9)
#7 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-2) v. #58 Virginia (ACC, 2-6, 3-9)
#8 Utah (MWC, 6-2, 10-3) v. # 57 Akron (Mid-American, 2-6, 3-9)
#9 Oregon (PAC-10, 8-1, 10-3) v. #56 Louisville (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)
#10 Boston College (ACC, 5-3, 8-5) v. #55 Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt, 5-3, 6-6)
#11 Cincinnati (Big East, 7-0, 12-1) v. #54 Louisiana Tech (WAC, 3-5, 5-8)
#12 Florida (SEC, 8-0, 13-1) v. #53 Arkansas (SEC, 3-5, 8-5)
#13 Clemson (ACC, 6-2, 9-5) v. #52 LSU (SEC, 5-3, 9-4)
#14 USC (PAC-10, 5-4, 9-4) v. #51 Maryland (ACC, 1-7, 2-10)
#15 South Florida (Big East, 3-4, 8-5) v. #50 Navy (Independent, 10-4)
#16 Troy (Sun Belt, 8-0, 9-4) v. #49 San Diego St. (MWC, 2-6, 4-8)
#17 Syracuse (Big East, 1-6, 4-8) v. #48 Air Force (MWC, 5-3, 8-5)
#18 North Carolina (ACC, 4-4, 8-5) v. #47 Michigan (Big 10, 1-7, 5-7)
#19 Wyoming (MWC, 4-4, 7-6) v. #46 North Carolina St. (ACC, 2-6, 5-7)
#20 Pittsburgh (Big East, 5-2, 10-3) v. #45 Miami (FL) (ACC, 5-3, 9-4)
#21 Boise St. (WAC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #44 Texas Tech (Big 12, 5-3, 9-4)
#22 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-4) v. #43 Temple (Mid-American, 7-1, 9-4)
#23 Penn St (Big 10, 6-2, 11-2) v. #42 Kansas (Big 12, 1-7, 5-7)
#24 Ole Miss (SEC, 4-4, 9-4) v. #41 Georgia (SEC, 4-4, 8-5)
#25 Oklahoma (Big 12, 5-3, 8-5) v. #40 Stanford (PAC-10, 6-3, 8-5)
#26 Michigan St. (Big 10, 4-4, 6-7) v. #39 West Virgina (Big East, 5-2, 9-4)
#27 Central Florida (Conference USA, 6-2, 8-5) v. #38 Central Michigan (Mid-American, 8-0, 12-2)
#28 South Carolina (SEC, 3-5, 7-6) v. #37 Buffalo (Mid-American, 3-5, 5-7)
#29 Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 6-2, 9-4) v. #36 Connecticut (Big East, 3-4, 8-5)
#30 Northwestern (Big 10, 5-3, 8-5) v. #35 Minnesota (Big 10, 3-5, 6-7)
#31 Missouri (Big 12, 4-4, 8-5) v. #34 California (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5)
#32 Tennessee (SEC, 4-4, 7-6) v. #33 Ohio (Mid American, 7-1, 9-5)

[molson]

PRELIMINARY KNOCK-OUT STAGE CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
(Teams in Preliminary Knock-Out Stage By Conference)

ACC: 9
SEC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big-10: 7
Big East: 7
Mountain West: 6
Mid-American: 5
PAC-10: 4
Sun Belt: 4
Conference USA: 3
WAC: 3
Independent: 1

[molson]

#1 Alabama (SEC, 8-0, 14-0) v. #64 East Carolina (Conference USA, 7-1, 9-5)

Pre-Game:
Alabama cruised through their group undefeated, in dominating fashion, putting up a tournament-best +281 point differential. Their most impressive win was a 69-13 win of ranked Central Michigan. The Crimson Tide beat everyone in their group by at least 30 points. East Carolina finished only 2-3 in group and had to settle for the final wild card spot. Their point differential was aided by big routs of Vanderbilt (38 point win) and Rice (45 point win), which were the only twins for them in group play - but they did manage to avoid any ridiculous blowout losses.

Game
Alabama 58, East Carolina 6

No doubt about this one. The Pirates did score first, with a 1st quarter FG, and they held Alabama to just one 1st quarter TD. But the final 3 quarters were all Crimson Tide, who outscored the Pirates 51-3. Alabama rushed for 381 yards, outgained the Pirates overall, 483-170.

[molson]

#2 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-1) v. #63 Georgia Tech (ACC, 7-1, 11-3)

Pre-Game
Interesting matchup here between two teams ranked in the final 2009 AP poll. TCU rolled through a very weak group undefeated with a +262 point differential. That included dropping 99 points on Hawaii. and shutting out Indiana 82-0. Their reward - having to deal in the preliminary knockout stage with Georgia Tech, who finished 2009 ranked #13. The Yellow Jackets had some big problems in group play though, losing to Buffalo, Maryland, and UAB. The managed to salvage a wild card thanks to blow-out wins over San Jose St, and Troy, the latter of whom eventually won GT's group.

Game
TCU 73, Georgia Tech 17

It was kind of a tough break for TCU to have play Georgia Tech here, but they had absolutely zero problem squashing the Yellow Jackets. 676 total yards of offense for the Horned Frogs, v. 318 for Georgia Tech.