If Trump Loses In November, What Do You Think Happens Next

[albionmoonlight]

Thank God the United States has a robust bureaucracy that allows the government to continue to function without a House. It is one of our underrated strengths as a country.

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

Apparently Trump just posted something in support of McCarthy. Which I take to mean that McCarthy now has the votes he needs, so Trump jumped in so he could take credit for it.

[Ksyrup]

Agreed. It's odd to see so many pundits on Twitter taking it at face value, tweeting that either he doesn't have the sway he used to or it'll be interesting to see if he can move anyone with such a direct endorsement.

I expect there was a come to Jesus meeting last night and this thing will be wrapped up quickly. If not, things are even further off the rails than it appeared yesterday.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Agreed. It's odd to see so many pundits on Twitter taking it at face value, tweeting that either he doesn't have the sway he used to or it'll be interesting to see if he can move anyone with such a direct endorsement.

I expect there was a come to Jesus meeting last night and this thing will be wrapped up quickly. If not, things are even further off the rails than it appeared yesterday.

It is crazy how pundits who followed him for 6+ years as a politician still don't understand his most basic moves and take him at face value.

(Or maybe they know full well what is going on and are just playing along b/c it makes for a more dramatic story).

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola:

Apparently Trump just posted something in support of McCarthy. Which I take to mean that McCarthy now has the votes he needs, so Trump jumped in so he could take credit for it.

In a prior version of the simulation I would agree with this, but after what I saw yesterday I find it hard to believe he has the votes. It sounds like the extremists want him to promise things he can't and shouldn't promise.

It will be a fascinating litmus test for how much power he still commands in the party

[Ksyrup]

If today is a repeat of yesterday, then Trump just took an enormous gamble that he would, in essence, be confirming that he is done within the party. In that scenario, his endorsement isn't coordinated to anything other than a hope that it synchs up with the party doing the sensible thing and coming to an agreement today after yesterday's debacle, so that he can claim some sort of responsibility.

He may be in such a desperate, frantic mode that this made sense to him. Or he's convinced McCarthy isn't going to back down (they did talk yesterday) and he figures that 20 people will back down before 200 switch off of him, so he's going to win eventually.

Either way, Trump sounds like a guy staring in through a thick glass window shouting at people who can't and/or don't want to hear him.

[NobodyHere]

Hasn't Trump already endorsed McCarthy though?

It seems like endorsing him again just means that people weren't paying attention to him the first time or didn't care what he had to say.

[Ksyrup]

What's most embarrassing for him is that most/all of the holdouts are the most Trumpy of all the GOP, aren't they? MTG is an exception in that she's voting for McCarthy.

[Ksyrup]

This guy is so good.

Kevin Can Wait

Bad boy would-be Speaker McCarthy may be the Warren Beatty of the GOP, but after a disappointing Tuesday night, he may end up like Bonnie and Clyde.

by Maureen Dowd

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) November 14, 2022

[Ksyrup]

Well, if McCarthy and his people are trying to push the vote off until some time later, he obviously doesn't have the votes and Trump is pissing into the wind. Amazing.

EDIT: Wow - Gaetz is openly mocking Trump now:

Sad!” Gaetz said in a statement to Fox, mocking Trump. “This changes neither my view of McCarthy nor Trump nor my vote.”

When you've lost Matt Gaetz... I guess the only question now is whether Trump decides to make a 3rd party run.

[GrantDawg]

Trump reportedly working the phones for McCarthy. That might work, and that makes sure Trump looks like the savior.

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[Ksyrup]

James Carville can come up with a million ways to say something funny:

"You're supposed to throw the grenade after you pull the pin. They pulled the pin and passed the grenade around"

[GrantDawg]

It looks like the Republicans are going to try to punt till tomorrow. Dens might prevent that from happening.

Edit- Not to mention the rebel 20. Mote bad votes works for them.

[GrantDawg]

Fred Upton is not ruling out becoming speaker, but I still think there is zero chance. The second some kind of discussion goes that way, the hardliners will find someone they can agree with moderates.

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[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Trump reportedly working the phones for McCarthy. That might work, and that makes sure Trump looks like the savior.

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There has to be some fear of a deal being cut for a moderate for Trump to step in without someone already having the votes.

[Edward64]

Isn't it time for them to computerize the voting?

Push a button to vote and then show it on the big screen on who voted for whom.

[GrantDawg]

Dem leadership is telling members to make plans to stay in town through the weekend.

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[Jas_lov]

It doesn't seem like McCarthy is any closer on the 4th vote. Might be time to withdraw. They didnt even have the votes to adjourn.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

It doesn't seem like McCarthy is any closer on the 4th vote. Might be time to withdraw. They didnt even have the votes to adjourn.

I'm off PredictIt, but they have Jeffers at 4%.

I'd be tempted to take a flyer on that on the theory that the GOP mucks this up so badly that he ends up being elected accidently or something (And then the GOP majority quickly votes to remove him, but I assume you'd still win the bet).

FWIW, PredictIt has McCarthy and Scalice both effectively tied as most likely at ~ 35%

[GrantDawg]

Victoria Spartz voted "present".

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[Edward64]

MSM needs to get people that can read lips

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Isn't it time for them to computerize the voting?

Push a button to vote and then show it on the big screen on who voted for whom.

I think the dems should just be able to say they are voting in a block.

[albionmoonlight]

With Trump's endorsement not having pushed McCarthy over the line, this now needs to happen:

DeSantis endorses McCarthy. He gets all the GOP votes and is elected Speaker.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

With Trump's endorsement not having pushed McCarthy over the line, this now needs to happen:

DeSantis endorses McCarthy. He gets all the GOP votes and is elected Speaker.

My dream scenario is McCarthy realizes he can't win and decides to burn it all down. He convices 6 of his people to vote present, Jeffries wins, and McCarthy resigns.

[Atocep]

Waiting for Santos to announce he was elected Speaker.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Edward64

MSM needs to get people that can read lips

[PilotMan]

5th try, same outcome. Whoooopedeeeedoooo. Great look for the Rs.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

5th try, same outcome. Whoooopedeeeedoooo. Great look for the Rs.

They're starting to bitch about dems not bailing McCarthy out so they can end this.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Atocep

They're starting to bitch about dems not bailing McCarthy out so they can end this.

They should start nominating random republicans no one ever heard of. Propably not how any of this works but hey

Proper Question though: Is the "Minority Speaker" role decided in the same vote or could they in theory just start nominating other Dems to get 212 votes and a bit of a cheer and then still designate Jeffries for the role?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by whomario

They should start nominating random republicans no one ever heard of. Propably not how any of this works but hey

We already had Donalds nominated and when asked about he said it was just cool to hear his name nominated so he went ahead and voted for himself.

[JPhillips]

How big of a contribution would a person have to make to get nominated?

[Ksyrup]

Jesus, we've gotten to the drunk bridesmaid McCarthy nominating speech followed by everyone's uncle on FB posting that the guy he is nominating is black and that Republicans emancipated blacks in the 1860s.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Atocep

My dream scenario is McCarthy realizes he can't win and decides to burn it all down. He convices 6 of his people to vote present, Jeffries wins, and McCarthy resigns.

Man that would be glorious

[GrantDawg]

Better, a handful of Republicans declare themselves independents. They are given choice committee positions to caucus with the Dems.

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[whomario]

Serious question: What is the solution if no one blinks? Has this been considered whenever the current set of procedures was thought out? And when does this happen?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by whomario

They should start nominating random republicans no one ever heard of.

That's actually one of the possibilities apparently. I've seen a name or two mentioned as longshots that didn't ring the slightest bell.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by whomario

Serious question: What is the solution if no one blinks? Has this been considered whenever the current set of procedures was thought out? And when does this happen?

There is no solution unless they agree to change the rules. It's been over 100 years, but the record for votes to agree to a Speaker is something like 129.

This will go on until someone blinks.

[RainMaker]

I still think it'll be McCarthy. Holdouts are haggling for position. They'll likely get it as this drags on.

GOP holdouts are now demanding committee spots:

-@mattgaetz wants to chair Armed Services subcmt
-@RepAndyHarrisMD wants to head Approps subcmt on health and human services
-4 of 9 Rules Cmt seats to be hard-line conservatives

Via @HouseInSession https://t.co/Lh8a4VwFAc

— Emily Wilkins (@emrwilkins) January 4, 2023

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

There is no solution unless they agree to change the rules. It's been over 100 years, but the record for votes to agree to a Speaker is something like 129.

This will go on until someone blinks.

Just another example of our forefathers never imagining people like the current gop would ever be in power.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Just another example of our forefathers never imagining people like the current gop would ever be in power.

If we're being honest, most of these GOP holdouts are doing it for more attention/followers/donations while auditioning for post-office media jobs.

They don't care who ends up being Speaker as long as they can milk as much out of this process as they possibly can. If you look at the list of 19-20 people holding out they're professional complainers that have an empty legislative record and present no ideas to fix the issues they complain about.

If you identify something that your supporters feel is broken, continually point it out, but refuse to fix it then it's pretty easy to be reelected.

[Flasch186]

We’ve learned in other threads that you cannot say this. You can only go by their actions currently and can’t look at any of their past in coloring their current intentions.


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[albionmoonlight]

McCarthy has had since November to get these ducks in a row. And this wasn't a surprise.

How the heck did he let this happen. If you don't have the votes, then drop out of the race.

[GrantDawg]

Ego. Everyone one of them puts their ego before their country.

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[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

McCarthy has had since November to get these ducks in a row. And this wasn't a surprise.

How the heck did he let this happen. If you don't have the votes, then drop out of the race.

From his perspective, this was years in the making, and he wasn't giving it up. And, he figured the inertia of 200+ "yes" votes would force the others to cave in.

[Ksyrup]

Have you heard of Jared Kushner? https://t.co/yXffM4FzBH

— Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) January 4, 2023

[Edward64]

I think the Dems should help out McCarthy. My premise is it will be worse if Gaetz & crew wins or gets more leverage. So better to help him out and get a "gentleman's agreement".

Can't be a public deal. McCarthy won't survive that. Needs to be a Biden, Klain, Jeffries backroom dealing.

"Kevin, you're in a tough spot. We're in day 5 and no one is budging. We think we can help you. We want to get on with the countries business. The only 2 things we want are, for the next 2 years (1) a promise you, yourself, will not support Trump in actions or words, a "no comment" is sufficient and (2) you will not give in to Gaetz's demands.

We don't expect you to agree to any other specifics but want you to approach everything as a bi-partisanship opportunity. Let's take this opportunity to reset. Let's talk about how we can message our support in a way that doesn't hurt you"

I think McCarthy can live with the 2 specific asks. And there is fair chance he'll be grateful enough to try a reset with Biden & Dems. This gives Biden a chance to enact something in the next 2 years (e.g. Immigration, Ukraine etc.)

[Edward64]

Alright, some more excitement in 10 minutes. Can't wait.

Hope there is something new

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I think the Dems should help out McCarthy. My premise is it will be worse if Gaetz & crew wins or gets more leverage. So better to help him out and get a "gentleman's agreement".

Can't be a public deal. McCarthy won't survive that. Needs to be a Biden, Klain, Jeffries backroom dealing.

"Kevin, you're in a tough spot. We're in day 5 and no one is budging. We think we can help you. We want to get on with the countries business. The only 2 things we want are, for the next 2 years (1) a promise you, yourself, will not support Trump in actions or words, a "no comment" is sufficient and (2) you will not give in to Gaetz's demands.

We don't expect you to agree to any other specifics but want you to approach everything as a bi-partisanship opportunity. Let's take this opportunity to reset. Let's talk about how we can message our support in a way that doesn't hurt you"

I think McCarthy can live with the 2 specific asks. And there is fair chance he'll be grateful enough to try a reset with Biden & Dems. This gives Biden a chance to enact something in the next 2 years (e.g. Immigration, Ukraine etc.)

Dems shouldn't touch this.

The GOP can't make a deal with themselves, there's no chance they're making any deal with dems in good faith. Plus, regardless of who the leader we're looking at 2 years of investigations into Hunter Biden's penis. The longer it takes for the House to return to the country's business the better it is for Dems.

Basically, let the GOP hand themselves. There's no reason to bail them out of this. If the GOP can't be adults and legislate then why should the dems help them?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Dems shouldn't touch this.

The GOP can't make a deal with themselves, there's no chance they're making any deal with dems in good faith. Plus, regardless of who the leader we're looking at 2 years of investigations into Hunter Biden's penis. The longer it takes for the House to return to the country's business the better it is for Dems.

Basically, let the GOP hand themselves. There's no reason to bail them out of this. If the GOP can't be adults and legislate then why should the dems help them?

Because I'm not talking about the GOP as a whole. I'm talking specifically about 1 of the top 3 (arguably) most influential Republicans who will be in position of set the tone for some important legislation the next 2 years. I'm not asking for GOP party to deal in good faith, its specifically McCarthy.

I actually want Hunter Biden to be investigated. I don't think Joe did anything seriously wrong (e.g. nothing a father wouldn't have done). But yeah, I do want to know if there were any unethical deals (probably) and any illegal stuff (questionable). If that's what some GOP want to spin their wheels & focus on, go ahead, there are worse things they could spend their time on.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Because I'm not talking about the GOP as a whole. I'm talking specifically about 1 of the top 3 (arguably) most influential Republicans who will be in position of set the tone for some important legislation the next 2 years. I'm not asking for GOP party to deal in good faith, its specifically McCarthy.

I actually want Hunter Biden to be investigated. I don't think Joe did anything seriously wrong (e.g. nothing a father wouldn't have done). But yeah, I do want to know if there were any unethical deals (probably) and any illegal stuff (questionable). If that's what some GOP want to spin their wheels & focus on, go ahead, there are worse things they could spend their time on.

If McCarthy deals with Dems and Biden then he gets removed as speaker by his own party. Look at what Boehner went through.

Until the majority of the GOP are interested in making deals and legislating there's no reason for dems to give them rope for anything more than to hang themselves. There's no reason to help them put their big boy pants on so they can look more adult.

As for Hunter Biden, if he committed crimes then put him in jail. There's no reason for the House to be interested in him though. If they feel the need to investigate because he's the son of the President and made foreign deals then they can investigate Ivanka and her China deals.