If Trump Loses In November, What Do You Think Happens Next

[GrantDawg]

And let me also say this shouldn't be about history either. This should be about what is best right now. Impeachment without conviction will be looked at right now as another partisan action, and further divide the country. Having a censure that includes a majority of both sides of the isle would be a much bigger rebuke that isn't just passed off as politics as usual.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

At this point, I doubt McConnell would even put the impeachment up for a vote. Why make his members take such a politically fraught vote.

My sense is that no one is quite sure what to do at this point, and maybe they are all just kind of hoping that Trump makes the decision for them by resigning or by tweeting something so abhorrent that they can use that as cover for removal.

Isn't this an out to allow the GOP to free themselves of Trump, to the best extent possible? Sure, you run the risk of his supporters rallying against you, but (a) Trump would be legally prevented from running again and (b) he has done more to hurt GOP in elections than not, when it's not just him the people are voting for. This a chance to ostracize the Trump name from the GOP. Let him run Ivanka as a 3rd party who is connected to a twice impeached, once convicted president who incited a riot that killed at least 5 people.

I have to think 3 years of normalcy will bring some of the on-the-fencers back to the middle. You're never getting the kooks back, but they can GFT anyway, so.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

When I said "do or not do in mobilizing", I mean after the Capitol was stormed. There is no doubt there was failure in planning & prep to safe guard the Capitol.

After it went to hell ...

Who called and spoke to whom at the National Guard. What did the NG guy say. How long did they take to respond and why did it take so long?

Rinse and repeat for Secret Service, rinse and repeat for more local cops/SWAT etc. That's what I would like to know.

That is the reason why I laid all that out regarding DOD processes.

There are not a great deal of variables in a situation like this. Most of it is a checklist (or flowchart if it is from those TQM days) and most of it is public record. I guess we can wait for the grandstanding hearings but the picture seems pretty clear already.

Here is an article that reports on the call and approval process.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/06/polit...ard/index.html

Note the underlined piece.

As the chaos unfolded, doubts were raised about whether Trump would order the DC National Guard to respond due to the slowness of the response. Public statements by acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller and other top officials suggested it was Pence who ultimately approved the decision. Miller's statement Wednesday seems to indicate he did not even speak with Trump, discussing the matter with his deputy instead as sources told CNN the President was reluctant to even denounce the violence being carried out in his name.

Kash Patel, Miller's chief of staff, said in a statement Thursday that Trump and the acting secretary of defense spoke "multiple times this week about the request for National Guard personnel in DC," but did not specify if they were in contact on Wednesday as the situation at the Capitol spiraled out of control.
"During these conversations the President conveyed to the Acting Secretary that he should take any necessary steps to support civilian law enforcement requests in securing the Capitol and federal buildings," Patel added.

Now it could be argued that since the ACTING SECDEF is delegated to make the call and the President told the ACTING SECDEF to do what he had to do, the ACTING SECDEF froze up and could not make the call. That still does not prevent Trump from giving the order as was necessary.

Once the legal mobilization order is given, there is not much the NG can say but "Yes Sir". The guardsmen and women have a specific amount of time to be at the mobilization location, a specific time to be geared up and a specific time to depart the mobilization location. The reality is in that situation, once SECARMY makes the call that he wants to mobilize them and everyone knows or they think they know the approval is a formality, everything up to this point has already been placed in motion while he awaits the official approval. I also suspect that the members of the unit who have been around the block a time or two already were waiting by the transport vehicles fully geared up.

Seeing that most of the mobilization would probably have occurred at the D.C. Armory (again based on their website), Google Maps says it is a 2.6 jaunt from the Armory to the U.S. Capitol. Given their location and the state of readiness the DCNG would be in, most of that unit would have been in place within 60 minutes of SECARMY making his call unless they were told not to by someone above him.

[Flasch186]

I’m getting the impression the time lapse happening is that as we get further right what happened is going to be less bigly and eventually minimized as not a big deal.


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[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Isn't this an out to allow the GOP to free themselves of Trump, to the best extent possible? Sure, you run the risk of his supporters rallying against you, but (a) Trump would be legally prevented from running again and (b) he has done more to hurt GOP in elections than not, when it's not just him the people are voting for. This a chance to ostracize the Trump name from the GOP. Let him run Ivanka as a 3rd party who is connected to a twice impeached, once convicted president who incited a riot that killed at least 5 people.

I have to think 3 years of normalcy will bring some of the on-the-fencers back to the middle. You're never getting the kooks back, but they can GFT anyway, so.

It would be completely logical to think that, but I think that most Republican Senators are most afraid of being primaried by a Trump-approved candidate. Until that fear is gone, they are not taking that big of a chance. McConnell hates Trump, but he is going to protect his members over anything else. He won't allow a vote on impeachment.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

I’m getting the impression the time lapse happening is that as we get further right what happened is going to be less bigly and eventually minimized as not a big deal.


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Cool cool, so cop killing is okay from the Law and Order party, that'll be a good look

[Lathum]

Regarding self pardon. I was listening to something today that said it could backfire spectacularly on him. Since it has never been attempted, obviously the legality of it is questionable. So if he does they may decide to put it to the test and charge him with crimes.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

That is the reason why I laid all that out regarding DOD processes.

There are not a great deal of variables in a situation like this. Most of it is a checklist (or flowchart if it is from those TQM days) and most of it is public record. I guess we can wait for the grandstanding hearings but the picture seems pretty clear already.

Here is an article that reports on the call and approval process.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/06/polit...ard/index.html

Note the underlined piece.

Now it could be argued that since the ACTING SECDEF is delegated to make the call and the President told the ACTING SECDEF to do what he had to do, the ACTING SECDEF froze up and could not make the call. That still does not prevent Trump from giving the order as was necessary.

Once the legal mobilization order is given, there is not much the NG can say but "Yes Sir". The guardsmen and women have a specific amount of time to be at the mobilization location, a specific time to be geared up and a specific time to depart the mobilization location. The reality is in that situation, once SECARMY makes the call that he wants to mobilize them and everyone knows or they think they know the approval is a formality, everything up to this point has already been placed in motion while he awaits the official approval. I also suspect that the members of the unit who have been around the block a time or two already were waiting by the transport vehicles fully geared up.

Seeing that most of the mobilization would probably have occurred at the D.C. Armory (again based on their website), Google Maps says it is a 2.6 jaunt from the Armory to the U.S. Capitol. Given their location and the state of readiness the DCNG would be in, most of that unit would have been in place within 60 minutes of SECARMY making his call unless they were told not to by someone above him.

I appreciate you providing the process.

Sure, we can blame Trump for starting it. But there are likely others to blame here.

1) When did the SECDEF call the SECARMY? How long did the SECARMY make the call to mobilize the NG? How long did it take the NG to do the 2.6 mile jaunt? Were there any egregious delays from anyone (other than Trump)

2) Who called the Secret Service and when? repeat and rinse the questions

My point is without the "real" (vs theoretical) who called whom, and the timeline to gauge the responsiveness (or lack of) we aren't going to find the other failures. Only an investigation is going to document all this and that is what I'm interested in.

Hope this makes sense.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

My favorite Cruz bit is that G.W. Bush personally disliked him so much that he pulled strings to get him named Solicitor General of Texas just to get Cruz out of Bush's White House.

You hear stories about the personal likeability and magnetism of people like Reagan and Bill Clinton and how you just wanted to be in the room with them.

Cruz seems to have the exact opposite of whatever that is. The closer people are to him, the more they seem to just be revolted by him personally.

I’m sure I’m not the first to say this, but he always looks like he just shit himself. That’s not a look that exudes warmth... well not the right kind anyway

[GrantDawg]

They at least got this guy:

Per @PeteWilliamsNBC: Richard Barnett, who was seen sitting at a desk in Speaker Pelosi’s office, has been arrested in Arkansas and charged with entering and remaining on restricting grounds, violent entry, and theft of public property.

— Alex Moe (@AlexNBCNews) January 8, 2021

[Jas_lov]

That's all he's been charged with? These people better get more than a slap on the wrist. According to Trump's own order he should get a minimum of 10 years.

[GrantDawg]

This video is wow. They talk the police into stepping aside, and it lead to the woman getting shot.

WARNING: Violent graphic content. We've published video of the moments leading up the fatal shooting of Ashli Babbitt. At one point, the Capitol police blocking the door to the Speaker's Lobby step aside and let the mob pound on the glass to get in. https://t.co/9eEYNeqENu

— Colby Itkowitz (@ColbyItkowitz) January 8, 2021

[GrantDawg]

Another one charged:

NEWS: An elected Republican official, West Virginia state rep Derrick Evans, has been charged in connection with the mob riot at the Capitol Wednesday, per @PeteWilliamsNBC

— Michael Del Moro (@MikeDelMoro) January 8, 2021

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

This video is wow. They talk the police into stepping aside, and it lead to the woman getting shot.

WARNING: Violent graphic content. We've published video of the moments leading up the fatal shooting of Ashli Babbitt. At one point, the Capitol police blocking the door to the Speaker's Lobby step aside and let the mob pound on the glass to get in. https://t.co/9eEYNeqENu
— Colby Itkowitz (@ColbyItkowitz) January 8, 2021

Not only did the three cops just step aside (they need to be fired, at least, unless they were distinctly told to stand down, in which case there better be a goddamn good reason). But where was that tactical unit that's at the end of the video? If those guys are at the door, no one's playing Johnny Smash Window to break into the Speaker's office and none of this happens.

SI

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Not only did the three cops just step aside (they need to be fired, at least, unless they were distinctly told to stand down, in which case there better be a goddamn good reason). But where was that tactical unit that's at the end of the video? If those guys are at the door, no one's playing Johnny Smash Window to break into the Speaker's office and none of this happens.

SI

I think the tactical unit was in the process of extracting the 3 totally unprepared officers.

[Edward64]

It may have happened but I don't remember seeing any Capitol police drawing their firearm. There was one video of a cop running up the stairs, away from a crowd and he had his baton out.

A couple of shot protesters at the point of entry inside would have stopped the rest. Makes me wonder if Capitol police are really any better than TSA (rhetorical question, I think we know the answer).

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

This video is wow. They talk the police into stepping aside, and it lead to the woman getting shot.

WARNING: Violent graphic content. We've published video of the moments leading up the fatal shooting of Ashli Babbitt. At one point, the Capitol police blocking the door to the Speaker's Lobby step aside and let the mob pound on the glass to get in. https://t.co/9eEYNeqENu
— Colby Itkowitz (@ColbyItkowitz) January 8, 2021

So, here's where it looks like that video is taken from. It's almost 40 minutes long.

EDIT: Of course, graphic content warning. Also, the people who took the video are some combination of crazy and stupid if you turn on the audio. Like they're excited they got the moment she was shot. And a lot of the crowd is this weird mix of shocked and happy. There's a couple of "just hold me back" guys who are like "you going to shoot all of us" but the rest were some mix of "cool" and "did that just happen?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfiS8MsfSF4

SI

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

It may have happened but I don't remember seeing any Capitol police drawing their firearm. There was one video of a cop running up the stairs, away from a crowd and he had his baton out.

A couple of shot protesters at the point of entry inside would have stopped the rest. Makes me wonder if Capitol police are really any better than TSA.

I saw that video early on and think it may end up being one of the more historically memorable pieces of media. Seeing the officer continually retreat, without using force of any kind (forget lethal force, just backing away as the insurrectionist kept walking toward him). In contrast to this summer and the video of Jacob Blake, who was going back to his car and was shot seven times. That is just a huge, blinking eye opener.

I don’t know enough particulars to be real judgmental of any of the officers (although seven shots certainly seems excessive), but it really speaks to the level of fear or confidence in dealing with law enforcement that folks seem to (and must) have based on skin color.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

It may have happened but I don't remember seeing any Capitol police drawing their firearm. There was one video of a cop running up the stairs, away from a crowd and he had his baton out.

A couple of shot protesters at the point of entry inside would have stopped the rest. Makes me wonder if Capitol police are really any better than TSA (rhetorical question, I think we know the answer).

I'm not too sure of that. Shooting a rioter could've very well ended up enraging the crowd and the cop would've been torn to pieces.

[Ghost Econ]

This story is why we have the Chef's Kiss emoji

Woman tramped after carrying Don't Tread on Me flag

Also, thoughts and prayers.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

That's all he's been charged with? These people better get more than a slap on the wrist. According to Trump's own order he should get a minimum of 10 years.

Felony murder rule is only for black people.

Also that 10 year minimum for "injury of federal property" only applies to people who don't support the President.

[molson]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Felony murder rule is only for black people.

I've worked on cases in which white people were charged with it.

[GrantDawg]

The only person I know charged with felony murder is white.

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I'm not too sure of that. Shooting a rioter could've very well ended up enraging the crowd and the cop would've been torn to pieces.

Fair enough but I wasn't picturing 1 cop. I was picturing all the cops gathered inside with guns drawn ready to shoot. If they all shot as the coupers & coupettes tried to storm inside, pretty sure the crowd would have backed off.

I have to believe they were told it is okay to use deadly force if anyone was trying to get into the Capitol in their training. They forgot about that and/or didn't have the "will".

Yeah, admittedly talk is cheap, I wasn't there.

Beyond blaming Trump and generic finger pointing, I really want to know the details of where the failures were like why did cops open the barricade (seen in one video), how did the protesters get into the Capitol building, why was a cop taking selfies, why didn't the cops pull out their guns, were there enough secret service agents there (e.g. we blame the Capitol police but did Secret Service also miss the ball resulting in Pence being put in a dangerous situation) etc? Inquiring minds want to know.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by molson

I've worked on cases in which white people were charged with it.

don't feed him

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Agreed.

She. Is. Grandstanding.

I think the official term is DNCing

[CrimsonFox]

if he gets impeached and removed, can Pence pardon him?
this is important...

[GrantDawg]

Yes, Pence can pardon him if made President.

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[sabotai]

It's good these people are being arrested and charged, but I don't hold out much hope that anything will come of it for 2 reasons.

1) They will be put on trial by a jury of their peers.

2) Their peers include Trump supporters and others who were cheering them on from their homes.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if any jury convicts them of any serious charges, but I fully expect every trial to result in a hung jury.

EDIT: Unless, of course, they take a deal, in which case they'll most likely end up with a slap on the wrist.

[GrantDawg]

It looks like there has been a good number of arrest today. I wonder if we are going to get an official number.

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[CrimsonFox]

So something a friend said...

THey need 66 votes to remove trump
They only need 50 to ensure he never takes office again.

That 50 sweet spot sounds great

[ISiddiqui]

The Articles of Impeachment will have one count: Incitement of Insurrection

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[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

This story is why we have the Chef's Kiss emoji

Woman tramped after carrying Don't Tread on Me flag

Also, thoughts and prayers.

Her families comments are heartbreaking and illustrate just how radicalized people have become. Biden needs to use the full force of the government to stomp out Q and all the others.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by molson

I've worked on cases in which white people were charged with it.

It's hyperbole but you absolutely know how it is disproportionately used against black people. Explain to me why these people aren't being charged with that? I need to hear the justification when people are charged all the time in Illinois for it when they had nothing to do with the murder.

Why aren't they being charged with this? It was used by the Federal government against protestors this Summer and holds stiff penalties. Why not use the Anti-Riot Act that Bill Barr threatened all Summer long? Can you think of why these are handled so differently?

Lets applaud them for throwing the book at this guy by charging him with a misdemeanor.

#BREAKING WV Delegate Derrick Evans has been taken into federal custody.

He’s charged after allegedly entering a restricted area of the US Capitol with rioters Wednesday.

A woman saying he was his grandmother came out telling us to leave as he was put in a car. #WSAZ pic.twitter.com/wK2RqFcaF7

— Chad Hedrick (@WSAZChadHedrick) January 8, 2021

[GrantDawg]

Sabotai, I can be a pretty cynical person but that is beyond cynical. Federal procecuters have like a 95% conviction rate. I think they will all easily be convicted, though most will plead. I can see some getting off with probation, but I imagine they will all end up with a felony conviction. There is going to be a good number that will get real time. The guy that broke into Pelosi's office for one. Anyone involved in the officers death for sure.

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[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Sabotai, I can be a pretty cynical person but that is beyond cynical. Federal procecuters have like a 95% conviction rate. I think they will all easily be convicted, though most will plead. I can see some getting off with probation, but I imagine they will all end up with a felony conviction. There is going to be a good number that will get real time. The guy that broke into Pelosi's office for one. Anyone involved in the officers death for sure.

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Probably won't help that a number of these guys are well known in Nazi and Q circles

SI

[molson]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's hyperbole but you absolutely know how it is disproportionately used against black people. Explain to me why these people aren't being charged with that? I need to hear the justification when people are charged all the time in Illinois for it when they had nothing to do with the murder.

Why aren't they being charged with this? It was used by the Federal government against protestors this Summer and holds stiff penalties. Why not use the Anti-Riot Act that Bill Barr threatened all Summer long? Can you think of why these are handled so differently?

Lets applaud them for throwing the book at this guy by charging him with a misdemeanor.

#BREAKING WV Delegate Derrick Evans has been taken into federal custody.

He’s charged after allegedly entering a restricted area of the US Capitol with rioters Wednesday.

A woman saying he was his grandmother came out telling us to leave as he was put in a car. #WSAZ pic.twitter.com/wK2RqFcaF7

— Chad Hedrick (@WSAZChadHedrick) January 8, 2021

I hope lots of them get charged with felonies. I've also disagreed with charging and non-charging decisions with colleagues and cases I've handled on post-conviction and appeal many times. I don't think getting into that with you is more than that is productive, since I think you've already made up your mind about me and everyone who works in these kinds of fields.

[CrimsonFox]

oh just looked something up. Pardons only protect you from prosecution of federal crimes but do nothing against state crimes which trump has done hellalot.

and iranian assassins are coming anyway so there's that

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by molson

I hope lots of them get charged with felonies. I've also disagreed with charging and non-charging decisions with colleagues and cases I've handled on post-conviction and appeal many times. I don't think getting into that with you is more than that is productive, since I think you've already made up your mind about me and everyone who works in these kinds of fields.

I thought it was a felony just to speed in that area there let alone assult and battery and breaking and entering

[thesloppy]

Ok, so widely documented and proud Trump supporters have now trampled each other to death, tazed themselves in the nuts to death, beat a cop to death with a fire extinguisher, and got shot to death by law enforcement in the process of storming the capitol, while congress was in session ratifying the transfer of power, after a rally where the President personally incited them & promised he would march with them, but do you think this could be Antifa?

[kingfc22]

Isn't it a near certain that Trump just pardons these clowns that are being arrested today?

Almost wish we'd just wait until Biden is in office so they face real time.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by molson

I hope lots of them get charged with felonies. I've also disagreed with charging and non-charging decisions with colleagues and cases I've handled on post-conviction and appeal many times. I don't think getting into that with you is more than that is productive, since I think you've already made up your mind about me and everyone who works in these kinds of fields.

I think the felony murder rule is bullshit and abused. I just get mad when a kid gets shot breaking into a parked car and they charge his 6 friends with felony murder while these folks get a slap on the wrist.

The Feds were looking to get 70 years on people who were in the vicinity of broken windows during the Presidential inauguration 4 years ago. They made their lives hell.

Every person who was with the lady who was shot should be charged with felony murder. This will never happen but shows the massive bias of our justice system.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by sabotai

It's good these people are being arrested and charged, but I don't hold out much hope that anything will come of it for 2 reasons.

1) They will be put on trial by a jury of their peers.

2) Their peers include Trump supporters and others who were cheering them on from their homes.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if any jury convicts them of any serious charges, but I fully expect every trial to result in a hung jury.

EDIT: Unless, of course, they take a deal, in which case they'll most likely end up with a slap on the wrist.

I think you're greatly overestimating the population in the jurisdiction where these trials will happen that are so pro-Trump they won't listen to evidence.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think you're greatly overestimating the population in the jurisdiction where these trials will happen that are so pro-Trump they won't listen to evidence.

Would these trials be in DC or somewhere else?

SI

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Isn't it a near certain that Trump just pardons these clowns that are being arrested today?

I don't think that's on the table for him. I'd like to imagine that would pretty much guarantee his removal/impeachment, and he's still trying to avoid public blowback...certainly not just to save some Bass Pro Shop rewards club members.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I appreciate you providing the process.

Sure, we can blame Trump for starting it. But there are likely others to blame here.

1) When did the SECDEF call the SECARMY? How long did the SECARMY make the call to mobilize the NG? How long did it take the NG to do the 2.6 mile jaunt? Were there any egregious delays from anyone (other than Trump)

2) Who called the Secret Service and when? repeat and rinse the questions

My point is without the "real" (vs theoretical) who called whom, and the timeline to gauge the responsiveness (or lack of) we aren't going to find the other failures. Only an investigation is going to document all this and that is what I'm interested in.

Hope this makes sense.

Focusing on what happened after the rioters breached the Capitol only makes sense if we do so with consideration to the resources available to respond with after they breached the Capitol.

If we want to blame someone other than Trump and the rioters for what happened we are reacting to only after the rioters enter the building , the easy answer is the Acting SECDEF and SECARMY for not recognizing what was going on at the Capitol immediately at say 1:39pm when Ben posted a video of people pushing through the barricades, disregarding the agreement they had with Mayor Bowser not to bring in any more personnel than requested. and not taking complete control of the situation while the President and the Vice President stood on the sidelines. The perimeter probably would have been established somewhere closer to 4:15 than to 5:00 when it seemed to be thinning out. That is not fair but it is easy. Also the local and Capitol police can be blamed for not shooting on sight because they were outnumbered and could have been fearful for their life.

No I am not actually serious about that last part.

Here is DOD's POV of what happened on Wednesday.

https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News...apitol-attack/


Secret Service's job on Wednesday was to protect Vice President Pence, Vice President-Elect Harris and any of their family members who may have been there. Unless of course we believe what happened on Wednesday was terrorism at which point they would have a role a part of the Joint Terrorism Task Force. Outside of that, the Secret Service passed with flying colors.

There will be hearings over this tragedy. My objection is the grandstanding that come with the hearing with so little insight despite so much of the information we are looking already being public knowledge.

[Jas_lov]

Rep. Omar's article of impeachment for incitement of insurrection has been released. This needs to start Monday if not this weekend.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by sabotai

It's good these people are being arrested and charged, but I don't hold out much hope that anything will come of it for 2 reasons.

1) They will be put on trial by a jury of their peers.

2) Their peers include Trump supporters and others who were cheering them on from their homes.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if any jury convicts them of any serious charges, but I fully expect every trial to result in a hung jury.

EDIT: Unless, of course, they take a deal, in which case they'll most likely end up with a slap on the wrist.

Most of the charges have been for unlawful entry. It's a misdemeanor, these aren't going to a jury trial. They will be plead out for probation and maybe a small fine.

They'll probably make an example of a couple people but we aren't going to be seeing many chances for a jury to decide anything.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Most of the charges have been for unlawful entry. It's a misdemeanor, these aren't going to a jury trial. They will be plead out for probation and maybe a small fine.

They'll probably make an example of a couple people but we aren't going to be seeing many chances for a jury to decide anything.

Not that I am surprised in any way, but I really haven't gotten the whole 'full & maximum extent of the laws' vibe from the collections of charges I've seen announced so far.

[CrimsonFox]

The laptop in question was only used for presentations. It was from the conference room

Also, Pelosi's roommate as well as WVboy have both been arrested