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Old 06-03-2020, 08:10 PM   #3401
GrantDawg
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I agree, Sloppy. Further, I wish I could think of the out-of-blue VP pick that would be a symbol of police reform. I don't think a former prosecutor or a former Police Chief is it.

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Old 06-03-2020, 08:30 PM   #3402
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Originally Posted by GrantDawg View Post
I agree, Sloppy. Further, I wish I could think of the out-of-blue VP pick that would be a symbol of police reform. I don't think a former prosecutor or a former Police Chief is it.

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Yeah, I imagine those particular folks like to think they could spin themselves as best prepared to oversee those reforms, but you'd have to think they are hot potatoes.
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Old 06-04-2020, 04:31 PM   #3403
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Listening to Mark Cuban's interview with David Axelrod. Cuban said he was ready to run third-party till is people told him the best he could do is get 25% of the vote. People that worked with Ross Perot were volunteering to help him, but he just didn't want to run if he couldn't win.
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Old 06-05-2020, 12:32 AM   #3404
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This is good news. I was expecting something (even if in the grey zone) that Trump could leverage. On to the next one.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN23B2RB
Quote:
An audit of thousands of old case files by Ukrainian prosecutors found no evidence of wrongdoing on the part of Hunter Biden, the former prosecutor general, who had launched the audit, told Reuters.
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Old 06-07-2020, 07:55 AM   #3405
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This is just brutal.
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Old 06-08-2020, 03:52 PM   #3406
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Atlanta mayor being vetted as possible Biden VP pick: report | TheHill


He could choose worse (like Elizabeth Warren)
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Old 06-08-2020, 04:37 PM   #3407
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Again, the only fear with Bottoms is the possibility of the slimey politics of Atlanta city hall has stained her. I do really like her. It is a good pick. Her weakness will be in her total lack of real National Security experience.
She also did have a scandal dealing with her campaign paying roughly $180,000 improperly during her mayoral race. I don't know how serious the allegations where or if the investigation has ended.


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Old 06-08-2020, 04:40 PM   #3408
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I don't think it would happen. It would go against his experience argument. Someone that even has a few years of Congress or Senate or Gubernatorial experience would be a far better choice.
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Old 06-09-2020, 07:58 AM   #3409
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Biden is doing a good job so far. Keep on the moderate path. Select a solid VP for 2024 or 2028. Continue the messaging of reform and oversight but don't go overboard.

I would like to hear more about the pandemic from him but understandably he's keeping a lower profile and letting Trump do his thing. Ultimately, he'll need to come up with "this is how we prevent the next one" or "this is what I'd do if we get a next one" etc. as we get closer to Nov.

Trump's latest attempt to tag Biden as a radical flops - POLITICO
Quote:
Trump lit into Biden on Twitter, painting him as the leader of the “radical left” and responsible for a movement that celebrates anarchy, coddles “antifa” and demonizes law enforcement.

But the swiftness and clarity of Biden's dismissal, which came as CBS, ABC’s “The View” and other media outlets were peppering Democratic politicians with questions about defunding the police, suggests Biden's team wanted to head off an issue it saw as politically poisonous.

And at least for now, they've succeeded. Biden emerged from the attacks on Monday without suffering any significant backlash from activists who've embraced the "defund" movement.
:
:
Biden has banked his candidacy on a tried-and-true path in which he's moved left on some policies without going too far. His campaign points to that moderation as among the reasons that polling shows he’s eating into constituencies that Trump won in 2016, including suburban and older voters.

On Monday, moderates applauded Biden’s stance, which rejected cutting funds to police departments, but supported reforms and oversight.

And while it was the latest example of Biden knocking a left-wing idea embraced by his party’s activist base — he also opposed "Abolish ICE" and Medicare for All during the primary — by and large, progressives didn’t express the outright disdain for Biden that Trump might have been expecting.
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Old 06-09-2020, 02:38 PM   #3410
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Originally Posted by ISiddiqui View Post
I don't think it would happen. It would go against his experience argument. Someone that even has a few years of Congress or Senate or Gubernatorial experience would be a far better choice.
I think being a mayor of a major city is equal to or greater than the governorship of many states. And it is way better then say two terms in the House.
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Old 06-09-2020, 03:10 PM   #3411
ISiddiqui
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The only other VP choice who went from mayorship to VP selection was Spiro Agnew. That one didn't work well. Lack of experience (Washington experience in particular) was evident.


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Old 06-09-2020, 03:41 PM   #3412
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What? Spiro Agnew was Governor of Maryland. What are you talking about?

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Old 06-09-2020, 03:55 PM   #3413
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I've still got a PredictIt bit on Duckworth.

But Harris seems more and more obvious.
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Old 06-09-2020, 04:07 PM   #3414
ISiddiqui
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Oh you are right on Agnew. I got confused because he hadn't been Governor long before the VP. So no one has gone from Mayor to VP then.

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Old 06-16-2020, 08:24 AM   #3415
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Originally Posted by albionmoonlight View Post
Part of the reason we pay lawyers is that this shit, when done well, requires more than simple logic.

The local Boy Scout Troop charters only one bus to go on a popular fishing trip. Over the last couple of years, the bus has gotten very crowded with scouts bringing their camping equipment (tents, etc.) on the bus despite encouragement to have parents and den leaders bring those bulky items in separate vehicles.

This year, the Troop posts an announcement: "Due to limited space on the bus going to our boy scout fishing trip, scouts may bring only fishing poles, bait, fishing tackle, and other equipment on the bus."

Johnny attempts to bring a backhoe onto the bus. It is, after all, "other equipment," and words matter.

Jimmy tries to bring a trolling motor, even though there are no boats on the trip. That is, after all, fishing equipment.

Jack just brings his tent and sleeping bag. Other equipment and all that.

What about camping chairs in which people will sit to fish?

In figuring out what "other equipment" means, does context matter? Does history? Does the intent of the rule? Can reasonable, well-meaning people minds differ over examples like the camping chair?


________________________________________________________


Or, to use a very classic example, say that there is a sign banning vehicles in the park.

Someone tries to drive his car in the park. That's easy. The sign forbids it.

What about a disabled person in a wheelchair?

A disabled person in a motorized wheelchair?

Someone who is not disabled who is delivering a wheelchair to someone and pushes it through the park on the way there? Decides to ride it through instead?

The city trash trucks to collect refuse from the trash cans?

What about a little girl pushing her doll in a stroller?

What about a bicycle?

Rollerblades?

Matchbox cars?

A memorial to the city's war dead that includes a tank?

http://www.courts.wa.gov/content/les...novehicles.pdf

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Admitting that hard problems are hard and not pretending that they are easy is not a sign of bad character.

Yesterday's Bostock opinion interpreting Title VII is another example of how this stuff is hard.

You have a majority opinion and two dissents, all applying textualism. And reaching different results.

I am a texualist. I think that it is the best way to interpret the laws. But it is wrong to say that textualism is easy. There is so much more to this than just "apply the words as written."
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Old 06-16-2020, 08:31 AM   #3416
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A good bump!! Indeed, Alito and Gorsuch are very different textualists (I don't know Kavanaugh's legal philosophy, but Thomas is an original legislative intent guy and not into textualism at all). Alito is an originalist - what did the textual language mean at the time the law was drafted. Gorsuch is a strict textualist and doesn't give one white what the original drafters believed the words to mean. So Gorsuch ruled his way based on strict meaning of the text (discrimination wouldn't have happened if the person was the other sex) and Alito the other (Title VII did not mean sex discrimination to include LGBTQ as that was not considered sex discrimination at the time).

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Old 06-16-2020, 03:51 PM   #3417
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Originally Posted by ISiddiqui View Post
A good bump!! Indeed, Alito and Gorsuch are very different textualists (I don't know Kavanaugh's legal philosophy, but Thomas is an original legislative intent guy and not into textualism at all). Alito is an originalist - what did the textual language mean at the time the law was drafted. Gorsuch is a strict textualist and doesn't give one white what the original drafters believed the words to mean. So Gorsuch ruled his way based on strict meaning of the text (discrimination wouldn't have happened if the person was the other sex) and Alito the other (Title VII did not mean sex discrimination to include LGBTQ as that was not considered sex discrimination at the time).

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Alito is an opportunistic originalist. The original intent matters unless it would lead to the opposite outcome he desires, and then he abandons any pretense of originalism.
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Old 06-25-2020, 07:20 AM   #3418
GrantDawg
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The latest polls in the battlegrounds states are so stark that I am beginning to come around to the idea that Trump may lose. The Senate might well be realistically in play as well.
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Old 06-25-2020, 08:10 AM   #3419
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The latest polls in the battlegrounds states are so stark that I am beginning to come around to the idea that Trump may lose. The Senate might well be realistically in play as well.

Lots of time between now and election day. If the election were held next week, I'd agree. But I can't wait until we're mid-October and the media, especially the Fox wing, are talking about Hunter Biden or some other horseshit instead of, you know, mangling a pandemic response and stoking a race war.

SI
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Old 06-25-2020, 08:17 AM   #3420
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Lots of time between now and election day. If the election were held next week, I'd agree. But I can't wait until we're mid-October and the media, especially the Fox wing, are talking about Hunter Biden or some other horseshit instead of, you know, mangling a pandemic response and stoking a race war.

SI

That requires Trump to keep his mouth shut and let the media obsess over the Democratic nominee, like Comey's letter in the last final days in 2016. I'm not sure that's possible when Trump is the President.
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Old 06-25-2020, 08:34 AM   #3421
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That requires Trump to keep his mouth shut and let the media obsess over the Democratic nominee, like Comey's letter in the last final days in 2016. I'm not sure that's possible when Trump is the President.

And Biden is playing this reaaaal well. I feel that anyone else would have been trying to take some of the spotlight for himself (as if the media would let them - unless they said something nutty), rather than let Trump continue to say and do batshit things.
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Old 06-25-2020, 08:43 AM   #3422
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And Biden is playing this reaaaal well. I feel that anyone else would have been trying to take some of the spotlight for himself (as if the media would let them - unless they said something nutty), rather than let Trump continue to say and do batshit things.

It's going to be cute (read: super frustrating) when Trump is hogtied and mostly shut up by someone in his campaign for like 2 of the 3 weeks before the election and people start trying to talk about how "controlled" he is, despite years of evidence to the contrary.

SI
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Old 06-25-2020, 08:52 AM   #3423
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Originally Posted by sterlingice View Post
Lots of time between now and election day. If the election were held next week, I'd agree. But I can't wait until we're mid-October and the media, especially the Fox wing, are talking about Hunter Biden or some other horseshit instead of, you know, mangling a pandemic response and stoking a race war.

SI

Someone on twitter was pointing out last night just how different 2016 was. We sort of forget that NOTHING IMPORTANT WAS HAPPENING in 2016. So "lady sends some work emails from her home account" was, literally, the biggest story of the election. Like, New York Times 96-point-type headlines kind of stuff.

It isn't like the GOP isn't trying to do the same thing this cycle (Hunter Biden! Obamagate! Biden said something nice about China that one time!). But none of it is getting out beyond the FoxNews/OANN bubble because even the New York Times has to acknowledge that a mismanaged global pandemic, depression-era unemployment numbers, and police clashing with protesters across the country are actual news stories. And they are taking up all the oxygen in the room. There's no more room on page one.

And, whenever there is the slightest chance that there might be enough of a break to allow some propaganda story through, the President does something like "joke" about wanting to limit testing and then announce that he is cutting off federal funds for testing.

So, yeah, November is still a ways off. But the GOP will need Trump to both shut up between now and then AND to stop horribly mismanaging the actual crises going on right now. I just don't see him doing either of those--let alone both.
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Old 06-25-2020, 08:56 AM   #3424
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dola:

Feel free to quote all that back and laugh at me when the Supreme Court votes 5-4 that Florida's election results must stand, ensuring Trump's re-election, because it lacks jurisdiction to consider a challenge to Governor DeSantis's controversial "Fuck it, we just won't let Black people vote" emergency order.
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Old 06-25-2020, 10:54 AM   #3425
sterlingice
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Originally Posted by albionmoonlight View Post
dola:

Feel free to quote all that back and laugh at me when the Supreme Court votes 5-4 that Florida's election results must stand, ensuring Trump's re-election, because it lacks jurisdiction to consider a challenge to Governor DeSantis's controversial "Fuck it, we just won't let Black people vote" emergency order.

I would like to "haha" that one, but it hits too close to home

SI
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Old 06-25-2020, 02:36 PM   #3426
ISiddiqui
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This is a perfect line:

https://www.twitter.com/sarahmucha/s...28501365035010

Quote:
.
@JoeBiden
lambasts President Trump: "He’s like a child who can’t believe this has happened to him. All his whining and self-pity. Well this pandemic didn’t happen to him. It happened to all of us. And his job isn’t to whine about it, his job is to do something about it."
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Old 06-25-2020, 02:39 PM   #3427
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Biden is up real big in the polls. Like way more than Hillary ever was. And those include battleground states like Wisconsin and Minnesota.

It's almost as if removing the anchor that Hillary was to the party has shown just how shitty Trump is as a candidate.

I was skeptical at first about the election but unless Biden does something real dumb, I think he takes this is a cakewalk.
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Old 06-25-2020, 02:55 PM   #3428
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Seeing Trump in action, especially in 2020, has a lot to do with the polls.
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:05 PM   #3429
Atocep
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Seeing Trump in action, especially in 2020, has a lot to do with the polls.

And it eliminates his advantage as an incumbent. Instead of selling what his administration has accomplished the only thing they seem to understand how to do is attack their opponent, and even those attacks show no variation from the previous campaign against Clinton. So he's been left highlighting his failures over and over again.

This is where alienating the GOP establishment is killing Trump. He's stuck with Parscale, who has no idea how to run his campaign, continuing to try to go back to the greatest hits while hoping something sticks to Biden. Someone from the Bush administration, with experience selling an incumbent, is a necessary change but I don't think anyone is willing to help nor do I think Trump would listen.
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:06 PM   #3430
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Biden is up real big in the polls. Like way more than Hillary ever was. And those include battleground states like Wisconsin and Minnesota.

It's almost as if removing the anchor that Hillary was to the party has shown just how shitty Trump is as a candidate.

I was skeptical at first about the election but unless Biden does something real dumb, I think he takes this is a cakewalk.

I worry about the debates, I hope he stays focused on relaying his agenda and not getting drawn into Trump's nonsense or riffing where he may make gaffes that alarm people. Let Trump be Trump and stay above that shit.
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:07 PM   #3431
ISiddiqui
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Seeing Trump in action, especially in 2020, has a lot to do with the polls.

Yeah, I still remember all those folks in 2016 who were trying to claim he'd be this new Republican Populist who would push all these government programs to help the working class.
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:11 PM   #3432
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Lincoln Project is putting out some really effective stuff. Let's compare leaders n crisis

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/s...12782187003904
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:12 PM   #3433
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Trump screwed up the coronavirus response, then the George Floyd protest response, and now he's turning off seniors by holding super spreader events. Biden just needs to keep it low key and run out the clock. I thought he did well in his 1 on 1 debate with Bernie so I'm not sure how much those will matter. Trump isn't a good debater either. And if one of them is a townhall that probably favors Biden since he can actually show empathy towards other humans.
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:43 PM   #3434
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This is where alienating the GOP establishment is killing Trump. He's stuck with Parscale, who has no idea how to run his campaign, continuing to try to go back to the greatest hits while hoping something sticks to Biden. Someone from the Bush administration, with experience selling an incumbent, is a necessary change but I don't think anyone is willing to help nor do I think Trump would listen.
I still suspect that if the polling continues at this level or worse for Trump, at some point in the fall, GOP politicians will turn on him viciously in attempts to distance themselves from him and try to save their own political hides. It'll be in the form of pearl-clutching "This latest terrible thing that he just said or did {that's no more terrible than the dozens of terrible things he's said or done for the last 3.75 years} is so terrible that I cannot be silent about it!"
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:44 PM   #3435
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This from Biden today is good:

Quote:
"He's like a child. He can't believe this has happened to him. All his whining and self-pity. This pandemic didn't happen to him. It happened to all of us. And his job isn't to whine about it, his job is to do something about it. To lead."
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:48 PM   #3436
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I still suspect that if the polling continues at this level or worse for Trump, at some point in the fall, GOP politicians will turn on him viciously in attempts to distance themselves from him and try to save their own political hides. It'll be in the form of pearl-clutching "This latest terrible thing that he just said or did {that's no more terrible than the dozens of terrible things he's said or done for the last 3.75 years} is so terrible that I cannot be silent about it!"

The way it is going, they are going to lose the Senate too.
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Old 06-25-2020, 05:28 PM   #3437
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The way it is going, they are going to lose the Senate too.

They need to be destroyed 1932 style for their enabling of Trump. If the world was just, the GOP would lose every seat this election because of what they've done over this term. It's obvious they made the political decision that it was less harmful to hitch their wagons to him unconditionally than to try and fulfill their duty and reign him in and they should pay dearly for that.

SI
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Old 06-25-2020, 05:35 PM   #3438
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PredictIt now has Dems at 59 cents to control the Senate. That's crazy considering how difficult the map looked just a few months ago.
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Old 06-25-2020, 05:37 PM   #3439
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Old 06-25-2020, 05:39 PM   #3440
Atocep
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For every poll that's released with Biden leading 10 polling locations close.

Last edited by Atocep : 06-25-2020 at 05:39 PM.
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Old 06-25-2020, 05:45 PM   #3441
sterlingice
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For every poll that's released with Biden leading 10 polling locations close.

Only 10?

SI
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Old 06-27-2020, 07:19 PM   #3442
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Still wish Matt would have run . . .
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Old 06-27-2020, 07:31 PM   #3443
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Still wish Matt would have run . . .

I'm still for MattJones4Heismann
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Old 06-28-2020, 08:44 AM   #3444
Edward64
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Hypothetical question ... assuming the House stays Dem and you can only have one, would you prefer the Dems winning the Presidency or the Senate?

The Trump presidency would be a lot different without the GOP controlled senate.
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Old 06-28-2020, 08:47 AM   #3445
Lathum
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I think as a nation we need to wipe the Trump stain from the White House. Every day he is in power we lose standing on a global scale.
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Old 06-28-2020, 08:51 AM   #3446
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Hypothetical question ... assuming the House stays Dem and you can only have one, would you prefer the Dems winning the Presidency or the Senate?

The Trump presidency would be a lot different without the GOP controlled senate.

Definitely the Presidency. Because if the Dems took the Senate, they will still have to deal with a President who is going to obstruct them every way possible and will move from one Presidential crisis after another rather than the much need work to repair the country.
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Old 06-28-2020, 09:15 AM   #3447
sterlingice
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Originally Posted by Thomkal View Post
Definitely the Presidency. Because if the Dems took the Senate, they will still have to deal with a President who is going to obstruct them every way possible and will move from one Presidential crisis after another rather than the much need work to repair the country.

I think you could say the same for a GOP Senate, though. It's probably even more obstructionist than the Presidency.

However, the difference is that Trump would continue to damage the administrative state. Sure, Roberts and company are all ready to take a bat to that anyway. But we don't need awful cabinet appointees screwing up every part of the bureaucracy like they have been for the last 4 years. No more oil lobbyists in charge of Interior, private school barons in charge of DEA, telecom stooges in charge of the FCC, etc - all dismantling their departments from the inside.

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Last edited by sterlingice : 06-28-2020 at 09:25 AM.
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Old 06-28-2020, 09:16 AM   #3448
GrantDawg
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Originally Posted by Edward64 View Post
Hypothetical question ... assuming the House stays Dem and you can only have one, would you prefer the Dems winning the Presidency or the Senate?

The Trump presidency would be a lot different without the GOP controlled senate.
Trump would ignore congress and try to rule as king. He is pretty much doing it now. Even with a Democratic majority, they still couldn't remove him from office. I have absolutely zero faith in any Republican doing the right thing in voting for impeachment for anything. He has to go.
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:09 AM   #3449
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Kudos to Biden on saying this. I would like to understand his goals on reducing spending also.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/bide...-tax-cuts.html
Quote:
Biden, who has been largely avoided in-person campaign events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, said the recovery from the health crisis could present an “opportunity” to strengthen the middle class and make sweeping investments in clean energy and infrastructure.

“Folks, this is going to be really hard work and Donald Trump has made it much harder to foot the bill,” Biden said, according to a Wall Street Journal reporter’s press pool report about the event.

But even before the coronavirus crisis effectively froze the U.S. economy and sent unemployment skyrocketing, Trump’s “irresponsible sugar-high tax cuts had already pushed us into a trillion-dollar deficit,” Biden said.

“I’m going to get rid of the bulk of Trump’s $2 trillion tax cut,” Biden continued, “and a lot of you may not like that but I’m going to close loopholes like capital gains and stepped up basis.”

Biden also said he would raise the corporate tax rate to 28%, which he said would raise an estimated $1.3 trillion over the next decade. The Trump tax cuts had shrunk corporate taxes to 21% from 35%.
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:55 AM   #3450
SackAttack
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Originally Posted by Thomkal View Post
Definitely the Presidency. Because if the Dems took the Senate, they will still have to deal with a President who is going to obstruct them every way possible and will move from one Presidential crisis after another rather than the much need work to repair the country.

Obstruction happens either way. Biden + McTurtle as Majority Leader = nothing gets done. Not. One. Thing.

Trump + Schumer as Majority Leader = Trump ignores Congress to do his own thing and runs to the courts for their approval every time Congress tries to rein him in. You know, like he already does.
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