Survivor: New Helsing Tribal Thread

[path12]

Dola, that would make me think #1 was the lie.

[Alan T]

Before we jump on that assumption... lets think about how things played out real quick.

Lets assume the wolves do know each other and the helsing kills were villagers.
We know what night Barkeep said all players with night actions may submit them. The first wolf kill happened the following night.
THe first night kill (the second night after the wolves theoretically could have submitted night actions) was the seer which led us to feeling a member of Oz was converted.

So if there had been no conversion.. explain the following.. how did they manage to kill the seer their first kill, and why there were no wolf kills the first night they could attack (hypothetically)?

Maybe it is just wishful thinking, but I strongly believe there has been a conversion. I also feel its most likely the helsing wolf is still alive. THat means no one left in our tribe is a wolf.

If instead we want to assume the lie is the original helsing wolf is still alive (which seems really odd) it means barring conversion, we still know the majority of this tribe is ok.

I guess for me this entire thing hinges on the fact that there either was or was not a conversion. If we can feel confident that there was indeed a conversion, it means this tribe is likely in the clear. So I guess lets analyze the conversion details now.. What did the wolves do the first night they could attack, and how did they get the seer so fast?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

Could #2 refer to the original tribes and Oz?

I'm assuming that means the current tribes in my thinking.

[Alan T]

Ok so if #2 is the lie as my thinking is right now (I know everyone else thinks its #1), then the following is true:

Wolves: Grammaticus, Jonathan, either Kwhit or Anxiety, possibly ITC (ardent or cronin could have been the converted wolf)

If #1 is the lie then the following is true:

ITC is clear still.
Everyone else could still be a wolf.

If #3 is the lie then the following is true:

Anyone could be a wolf.

[Alan T]

Another interesting thing to watch for tonight....

If we are right and winning the challenge means you get wolf immunity too (which we have started to think so far), then tonight's wolf kill will either be ITC (if he wasn't converted) or the lupus member in Howard that is not a wolf. Thus narrowing it down even more to being a wolf majority tribe.

[Lathum]

I just goy home and I am drunk. Just wanted to say good job today, that was a slam dunk!!


oh, and AlanT, my tattoo post earlier was an attempt to set them up. I only have 2 tattoos

[Alan T]

Ok now that I am a bit more awake than I was last night

I think I misread Barkeep's truth/lies from last night. I still think there was a conversion due to the reasons I gave. I also find it likely that the original helsing wolf is still alive.

So for me it feels like the lie is that one tribe has no wolves. Which means the truth would be both tribes have wolves.

So basically.. that means if #1 is the lie:

ITC is clean, and either Gramm, Jonathan and either Kwhit/Anxiety are wolves, or Swaggs, Path and one of Lathum, sndvls or me are the wolves.

If #2 is the lie (which I believe is the case):

We don't really know much more than we did before.

I think however after the wolve's actions and finding out who the other team voted out at tribal council can tell us alot. If we are right and the wolves can only kill someone on the team who loses the immunity challenge, then they are likely running out of people to kill over there.

Basically anyone left alive in Howard after those actions I will be pretty suspicious of. They must be close to having a wolf majority for the votes over there anyhows.

[Alan T]

Further thinking.. so if they can only night kill the Howard tribe tonight.. they voted someone off last night, and have to vote off someone else over the weekend, thats 3 people leaving howard tribe out of this list:

Jonathan
Kwhit
Anxiety
Grammaticus
ITC

Obviously ITC either is the convert or was being left alive due to either not being a threat to them because he is new, or to make us have suspicions of him as the convert

Obviously one of Kwhit/Anxiety is not an original wolf and there is no reason for me to believe one of them was converted. (Possibly neither might be a wolf also)

I think it might be very likely if the wolves have to kill someone from the Howard tribe that we end up seeing no night kill even if there are only two non-wolves left over there. If we end up seeing three people leave howard over the weekend then I think its a pretty darn good chance anyone left is a wolf or likely wolf over there.

[Alan T]

Interesting that jonathan was voted off. I wasn't expecting that.

Im wondering how close that vote was.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Interesting that jonathan was voted off. I wasn't expecting that.

Im wondering how close that vote was.

Really?

I thought JE was the obvious choice after all the nonsense with him lying to everyone.

it was 2-1.

I'll be in and out today ( mostly out) and since we haven't gotten a challenge yet I'm not sure what to expect.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Really?

I thought JE was the obvious choice after all the nonsense with him lying to everyone.

it was 2-1.

I'll be in and out today ( mostly out) and since we haven't gotten a challenge yet I'm not sure what to expect.

I'll put it this way. that vote is the first time it was what I thought they should vote. Now I'm not quite as sure about who might be wolves or might not be.

[Alan T]

I wasn't necessarily expecting Jonathan to be voted out.. I wonder if that vote tells us much about who might or might not be a wolf..

If:

Gramm is a wolf, then likely Path + one of the old lupus members is a wolf.

If Jonathan was a wolf, then likely whoever in Oz that was converted is dead, and the helsing wolf is not gramm?

Some of that might be a reach, but I wonder what we will find out from the night kill now.

My guess is Kwhit will be dead in a night action by the wolves.

[Lathum]

Well Gramm is voted out and another member from the original helsing is killed.

[Lathum]

dola- JE voted out

[Alan T]

So now the teams are:

Howard: (having to vote off someone else today)

ITC
Kwhit
Anxiety

Helsing:

Alan
Lathum
Sndvls
Swaggs
Path

So I guess this answers the question about which one is false. It also means there was a conversion as well (which I figured)

[Alan T]

So looking back at our original 3 wolves + 1 conversion.

Howard wolf: Might have been Jonathan, Ntndeacon or Marathoner. Might also be path still

Lupus Wolf: Either Swaggs, Anxiety or Kwhit.

Helsing wolf: Either Alan, Lathum or Sndvls (I know its not me)

Conversion target: Could have been anyone. Might have been Ardent, doubtful that it was St.cronin. Could be ITC after all.

[Lathum]

Well we know the helsing wolf is still alive.

Gramm, PAss, and Mr. Wed were all night kills so no member of Helsing has been voted out.

That leaves Lathum, AlanT, Sndvls so obviously we still have a wolf in our tribe.

[Lathum]

alan, explain to me how you know thre was a conversion?

[Lathum]

1. There has been a conversion
2. One of the tribes has no wolves
3. The wolf from the original Helsing tribe is still alive

obviously #3 is accurate

[Lathum]

dola- eaither way I don't see how the information from barkeep is much of a help

[Swaggs]

I am 100% sure that there was a conversion.

KWhit or Anxiety is a wolf. So, they have a wolf in Howard.

If the original Helsing wolf is still alive and he must be, since none have been voted out, we have a wolf in our tribe.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

alan, explain to me how you know thre was a conversion?

Well technically I don't know for a fact, but it seems pretty obvious doesn't it? You read all of what I said in my hypothesis on it, thats my assumption.

The only way there wasn't a conversion means that Swaggs, either you or Sndvls and possibly Path are all wolves. That seems a bit hard for me to believe, but I guess could be a possibility.

I still stand by my earlier statement. I will believe there wasn't a conversion when someone gives me a good explanation for what the wolves did their first night they could do night kills and there was none.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- eaither way I don't see how the information from barkeep is much of a help

I disagree, and think the info from Barkeep does help.. it helps confirm there was a conversion in my mind. The only catch is if the converted person was:

1) a member of Oz (I think likely)
2) someone already dead (I doubt St.cronin, possibly Ardent, possibly ITC)

[Lathum]

looking back I am assuming there was a conversion.

Does anyone else get the feeling this information isn't all that helpfull?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I disagree, and think the info from Barkeep does help.. it helps confirm there was a conversion in my mind. The only catch is if the converted person was:

1) a member of Oz (I think likely)
2) someone already dead (I doubt St.cronin, possibly Ardent, possibly ITC)

yeah but with roles not being revealed does it really matter? The only way we will know for sure if we got all the wolves is when/ if night kills stop.

[Alan T]

Need to head out for the day. Taking my girls to see disney princesses on ice (ugh)

Luckily in return for it I get all sunday to play around on Xbox 360, or later in the day playing EU3 with Barkeep

Back tonight at some point

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

yeah but with roles not being revealed does it really matter? The only way we will know for sure if we got all the wolves is when/ if night kills stop.

Well thats the catch, but we dont know what reward challenges there will be that might proivide future info that then connects all of the dots.

Anyways, gotta run. back later.

[Lathum]

Have fun with that.

BTW, I think you are the Helsing wolf but we will discuss that when need be

[Swaggs]

I think the only help the clue gives us is that there was a conversion. It doesn't really help us find anyone or anything. It is unfortunate that our seer is gone, otherwise a few of the clues could have really allowed us to isolate and identify wolves.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Have fun with that.

BTW, I think you are the Helsing wolf but we will discuss that when need be

Haha... Nice farewell.

I'm guessing Alan will not leave on this note.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Haha... Nice farewell.

I'm guessing Alan will not leave on this note.

lol, give him something to think about while enjoying disney on ice

[Lathum]

actually, if Alan was a wolf why would JE submit his name with St. Cronins?

hmm, need to look closer at sndvls

[Alan T]

Hehe, well hope it doesn't make me sad but I did think some about this WW game on my way home from the arena.

The way I see it right now..

I have a 50% chance of guessing the Helsing wolf
33% chance of guessing the Lupus wolf
no idea for sure if the Howard wolf or the converted wolf is dead yet.

My initial hunch is that Lathum is a wolf, Swaggs, Kwhit are good, ITC is bad, path is bad and Anxiety is bad. I have nothing to base that on other than gut feel now at this point based on what I have seen come down.

I could be completely or totally wrong on some or all of those. I think in my mind right now ITC and path are pretty linked either good or bad, and just not sure which.

On Lathum, its mostly based on his comments yesterday and today about the clues we got as the reward challenge.. the only catch for me is I usually end up guessing completely wrong on gut feels like that.

I think my personal opinion is i'll probably push to try to out the lupus wolf first. I'm guessing after this weekend's tribal council in howard there will be one lupus left and swaggs in our tribe.

I also came to the conclusion with the tribes 5 - 2 we likely will see a final merge of tribes starting monday which will make things interesting. I've been wondering if the Helsing wolf will still honor the original agreement we made. I'm guessing no since we have seen Gramm, Pass and Mr.W die that they don't care to do so any more.

[Lathum]

Well like pretty much everyone else I don't have much to defend myself behind however RA did say he scanned me and I wasn't a wolf. I realize this was also before there probably was a conversion so it may not have teeth.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Well like pretty much everyone else I don't have much to defend myself behind however RA did say he scanned me and I wasn't a wolf. I realize this was also before there probably was a conversion so it may not have teeth.

I'm not entirely sure that I would trust anything a wolf tells us in the open. He also said several other things which haven't necessarily been proven as fact of yet. I think monday will be pretty interesting to see where it goes. should be a fun final week for this game i hope.

[Lathum]

Why would crew say if there was a conversion he would be dead?

[Lathum]

dola- the convert would be dead