OT - Simple(?) BCS question

[JonInMiddleGA]

Trying to explain bowl possibilities to my wife, will someone please check me to see if I've got this down right.

BCS takes 8 teams = Champs from ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 & SEC.

That's 6 of the 8, plus 2 "at-large" teams.

The at-large teams will be chosen from a pool that consists of the top 12 teams in the BCS rankings minus the aforementioned conference champions and any of the 12 who don't have at least 9 wins.

Then, #1 & #2 in the rankings play in the designated bowl for a given year.

Meanwhile, traditional conference tie-ins remain in place for the other 3 non-championship bowls.

This year, the Orange can have the ACC or Big East champ, the Rose gets the Big 10 and (possibly) Pac 10 champs and the Fiesta gets whomever (presuming the Big 12 champ is in the Sugar).

Now, let's apply what I've learned to the current BCS standings.

Miami, Michigan, and Florida State are in the BCS 8 due to conference titles. We don't have official SEC or Big 12 champs yet, pending Saturday's title games.

Either LSU (#3) or UGA (#7) will earn the SEC bid, either Oklahoma (#1) or K-State (#16) will earn the Big 12 bid.

That means that the at-large poll would provide the BCS bowls with a choice of -- Ohio State (#5), Texas (#6), Tennessee (#8), Florida (#11) and Iowa (#12) and the SEC title game loser, plus Oklahoma if they were upset by KSU.

There is no ranking restriction on what teams may be selected for a BCS bowl other than being ranked in the BCS top 12, i.e. there's no requirement to take the highest ranked pair as the at-large.
I know there's still games to be played, and that strength of schedule & "Quality Win" points & such could change, but do I seem to have it figured out correctly? Or am I missing another factor somewhere?

(FWIW, the point is ultimately to explain to my wife why Tennessee still hasn't a real idea of whether they'll end up in the Fiesta, Orange, Rose, Capital One, Citrus, Cotton, or Peach Bowl)

[Chubby]

there's no such thing as a simple bcs question

[digamma]

If a team is ranked third or fourth in the BCS and does not qualify as a conference champion, they get a BCS automatic bid, so long as the two at large berths have not been filled by Notre Dame or a non-BCS conference. (Ohio State or Texas could lock up one of these automatics.)

A conference may not get both at large bids. Other than that, there are no restrictions on who is chosen among the top 12.

[KevinNU7]

If LSU loses and Okalhoma loses then they will be the two at large teams in the BCS. Therefore leaving Tennesee with zero chance at a BCS game and focring them into Capital One, Citrus, Cotton, or Peach Bowl.

[Huckleberry]

The Top 4 rule is superceded by the no more than 2 BCS teams from one conference rule. For example, if KSU beats Oklahoma and Oklahoma and Texas both finish in the Top 4 of the BCS, then only the higher ranked of OU and Texas would go. Not that this is going to happen.

Also, any non-BCS Conference Champion ranked in the Top 6 of the BCS standings is an automatic at-large.

[JHandley]

It looks good to me, however, there are Notre Dame rules that could apply. Notre Dame is a non-factor this year but the rule is simply, if they are ranked in the BCS Top 10 and have more than 9 wins, then they get an automatic bid taking away an at-large bid from a team in a conference.

[VPI97]

When it comes to the Tennessee bowl picture, you have to remember that you can't spell Citrus without....

Well, you know the rest.

Edit - Isn't Florida confirmed to be going to the Peach Bowl? Take that off the UT list.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Thanks to everybody who posted, I suspected there were at least a few nuances I wasn't aware of.

digamma -- I see a scenario where Ohio State could do the #3-#4 thing (if LSU loses) but is there much of chance that Texas could somehow overtake Ohio State (with SOS changes) with a K-State upset win and an LSU loss?

Kevin -- I know we're all just speculating here, but wouldn't an LSU loss to Georgia drop them at least far enough that they are no longer an (unofficial) lock for a BCS bid? And especially if they managed to stink up the joint & lose big?

And it'll be interesting to see whether Miami (Ohio)could somehow manage to finish in the top 12 pool. They'd never be picked, IMO, but it'd be interesting nonetheless.

And FTR, I'm in no way suggesting that Tennessee deserves a BCS bowl, nor do I really even believe there should be a scenario that should have them being considered, this is largely an exercise in possibilities not probabilities.

[JonInMiddleGA]

VPI - that Spurrier-ism is largely what has my wife concerned. She's having a tough time dealing with the fact that the Capital One Bowl gets to select their SEC team before the Cotton Bowl gets to pick their's.

[Passacaglia]

Here's another BCS question. I'm wondering that the chances are for a Michigan-Ohio State Rose Bowl matchup. Wouldn't the Rose Bowl get one of the first two picks (along with the Fiesta) if the Sugar Bowl ends up taking USC (or Oklahoma, for the Fiesta) from them? And if they have the chance to select Ohio State, why not?

[digamma]

Originally posted by JonInMiddleGA

digamma -- I see a scenario where Ohio State could do the #3-#4 thing (if LSU loses) but is there much of chance that Texas could somehow overtake Ohio State (with SOS changes) with a K-State upset win and an LSU loss?

I was thinking of losses by USC and LSU, leaving the top four as Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State and Texas. However, I suspect, that if this did happen Georgia would leap frog Texas and maybe Ohio State.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Hell digamma, I didn't even realize that USC had another game to play

[Passacaglia]

They sure do. There's hope for Michigan yet.

[SlapBone]

Your wife already likes football right? Cause mine doesn't, but I'm getting her into it slowly. If I were to break out the BCS thing on her now she would strangle me in my sleep.

[tucker342]

Originally posted by JHandley
It looks good to me, however, there are Notre Dame rules that could apply. Notre Dame is a non-factor this year but the rule is simply, if they are ranked in the BCS Top 10 and have more than 9 wins, then they get an automatic bid taking away an at-large bid from a team in a conference.

The fact that Notre Dame gets special treatment is a fuckin joke! I know that it doesn't really matter this year, but the fact that they could get an automatic bid for being tenth is terrible. If they want an automatic bid, they should join a conference.

[JonInMiddleGA]

SlapBone -- yeah, she's pretty much a college football fan above everything else, NASCAR is probably 2nd at this point.

I think it's mostly a function of growing up with a state contending high school football team (that sucked in most every other sport) and then going to UT where there's football and then everything else.

[sooner333]

Actually, I thought the deal was the Cotton got a SEC West team always.

[JonInMiddleGA]

sooner -- That may be the case, either by tradition or rule, but it isn't mentioned at all in the SEC website where they detail the bowl tie-ins.

[Craptacular]

Originally posted by JonInMiddleGA
digamma -- I see a scenario where Ohio State could do the #3-#4 thing (if LSU loses) but is there much of chance that Texas could somehow overtake Ohio State (with SOS changes) with a K-State upset win and an LSU loss?

They are only separated by 0.35 points, so it's possible. A win by K-St doesn't really help Texas, since they also played Oklahoma. However, the opponent's opponents factor, as well as the effect of this weekend's games on the SOS of teams near Texas and OSU in the SOS ratings could make a difference. The computers are very complex, so Texas could make up the ground with a small change in one or two of them.

Of course, the polls are the biggest question mark. In each poll, Georgia is ahead of Texas, who is ahead of Ohio St. Neither Texas nor OSU are likely to move ahead of any team other than the LSU-Georgia loser. If Georgia loses, you would think both Texas and OSU would move ahead of them, so there would not be a relative change between OSU and Texas (and your question assumes an LSU loss anyway). However, if Georgia wins, LSU *may* end up in-between Texas and Ohio St in one or both polls, giving Texas an extra 0.5 or 1.0 points relative to OSU. That would make a big difference! But still, Georgia is close behind both teams right now, and might jump over both of them with a win!!

edit: Looking at this some more, I think it's basically a guarantee Georgia would jump past OSU and Texas with a win. USC would have to lose for either Texas or OSU to have a shot at #4, regardless of the result between LSU and Georgia. Did I confuse anyone?

Kevin -- I know we're all just speculating here, but wouldn't an LSU loss to Georgia drop them at least far enough that they are no longer an (unofficial) lock for a BCS bid? And especially if they managed to stink up the joint & lose big?

I think LSU would definitely fall out of the top 4 in the BCS with a loss, no matter how close. Michigan is a strong #4 right now, and you would think OSU Texas, or Georgia would move ahead of them as well.

[JW]

Originally posted by JonInMiddleGA
Thanks to everybody who posted, I suspected there were at least a few nuances I wasn't aware of.

digamma -- I see a scenario where Ohio State could do the #3-#4 thing (if LSU loses) but is there much of chance that Texas could somehow overtake Ohio State (with SOS changes) with a K-State upset win and an LSU loss?

Kevin -- I know we're all just speculating here, but wouldn't an LSU loss to Georgia drop them at least far enough that they are no longer an (unofficial) lock for a BCS bid? And especially if they managed to stink up the joint & lose big?

And it'll be interesting to see whether Miami (Ohio)could somehow manage to finish in the top 12 pool. They'd never be picked, IMO, but it'd be interesting nonetheless.

And FTR, I'm in no way suggesting that Tennessee deserves a BCS bowl, nor do I really even believe there should be a scenario that should have them being considered, this is largely an exercise in possibilities not probabilities.

Indeed it is quite possible that LSU could fall out of the BCS bowls altogether with a loss to Georgia. And, since you mentioned Miami-Ohio, the latest projections show that their last game could have an impact on LSU-USC relative strength of schedule.

[Abe Sargent]

It was mentioned by a BCS expert recently that the "two teams" per conference rule supercedes inviting the champion.

So, if two teams from a conference with a chamionship game are ranked #1 and #2 in the BCS, and the champion is ranked, say, #4 in the BCS, the champion will not go to a BCS Bowl, as the number 1 and 2 guys would go to the National Championship Bowl, whichever bowl that may be that year.

-Anxiety

[Craptacular]

If Texas hadn't lost to Arkansas, that scenario may have been staring us in the face right now. Imagine how interesting things might be if Kansas St went into the game knowing that they could win the Big 12 title and still not get into a BCS bowl.

[digamma]

Originally posted by Anxiety
It was mentioned by a BCS expert recently that the "two teams" per conference rule supercedes inviting the champion.

So, if two teams from a conference with a chamionship game are ranked #1 and #2 in the BCS, and the champion is ranked, say, #4 in the BCS, the champion will not go to a BCS Bowl, as the number 1 and 2 guys would go to the National Championship Bowl, whichever bowl that may be that year.

-Anxiety

This is only true when the two non-conference champ teams are ranked first and second in the BCS. If one is ranked first and one is ranked fourth, and the conference champ is ranked sixth, then the team ranked fourth would be left out.

[digamma]

Originally posted by Craptacular
If Texas hadn't lost to Arkansas, that scenario may have been staring us in the face right now. Imagine how interesting things might be if Kansas St went into the game knowing that they could win the Big 12 title and still not get into a BCS bowl.

Yeah, I don't know why the computers have loved Texas so much this year, but it would be interesting to see where they would rank compared to USC if they only had one loss.