01-14-2009, 09:10 PM | #1051 |
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Well that sucks. Anyone else feel like we're just taking shots in the dark?
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01-14-2009, 09:10 PM | #1052 |
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At Hannibal a bit, I voted to put him ahead of RPI. I'm still comfortable with my two targets.
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01-14-2009, 09:12 PM | #1053 |
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01-14-2009, 09:12 PM | #1054 |
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You and Rummie .
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01-14-2009, 09:13 PM | #1055 |
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So what do you have on Chief Rum?
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01-14-2009, 09:15 PM | #1056 |
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I posted yesterday on it. Will spend more time if needed tomorrow, think I'm done for today though. In short voting and posting patterns for the night Gram was lynched narrowed my list down.
Actually voted for Chief today, today switch til the end. |
01-15-2009, 12:41 AM | #1057 |
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Phfffft...or whatever Bill used to say in the old Bloom County comics.
This is a disappointing day to come home to after a long day of work. I can't really complain about the Hannibal choice, because he was my #1 choice as a potential wolf. I think RPI was the way to vote because we are getting to the point where it becomes too dangerous to keep ignoring him (he could come back and suddenly become a serious thorn in our side). But Hannibal was always at the top of my suspect list as an actual wolf. Dealing with RPI isn't about getting a wolf, but being cautious about the approaching endgame. So not only did we not get RPI, by far the best suspect I had has turned out to be simply a misguided villager. Lastly, there is BK. It's no surprise he bought it today, but I was really hoping to get more from him before he was killed. He left a couple PMs from me unanswered (was hoping two experienced players PMing, we could come up with some candidates or try to figure things out). Today, RPI wasn't necessary. I think it is tomorrow, though (Thursday). There are seven players left, one of whom is RPI and another is the wolf. If we don't lynch RPI and choose bad again tomorrow for the lynch, that puts us at just three good guys, along with the wolf and RPI, after another night kill. That is waaaaayyyy too close for comfort. I like the odds of four good guys (all active) and one wolf left after tomorrow much better than the other way around. VOTE RPI FAN I will check in in the morning, and be back before deadline tomorrow, so this vote can change if needed.
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01-15-2009, 12:47 AM | #1058 | |
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Quote:
Telle, I think one of his main points seems to be a theory he has that the wolf wouldn't have voted for RPI yesterday, and I voted for Gramm, so that puts me on his short list. I can understand the suspicion, but really, I think he's reaching quite a bit, especially considering he is ignoring that I turned around the next day and voted RPI from the start, and have already done so today as well (and stated my reasons why). As for the Gramm vote, I said it then and it has been acknowledged (I forget by who, either Jeff or DT) that my choice was between Gramm and a non-vote near deadline, so looks like a lose-lose for me there with Jeff. The funny thing is that Jeff himself is not any more cleared than me, but he's around and driving conversation while I am at work, so I guess that puts him above suspicion a bit. I don't know, I put him on the same level as DT and Abe and yourself for suspicion in my book. None of us are cleared, and I don't know that my vote would go to Jeff if RPI weren't my choice (probably wouldn't actually).
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01-15-2009, 12:49 AM | #1059 |
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BTW, I don't know that I really understand the reasoning for why the wolf has to be in the Gramm voters. Not like RPI had been around much even at that point, so it would be pretty foolish for the wolf to be counting on the return of RPI Fan to save him.
Someone else (Heinze? DT?) suggested that the wolf would actually be more likely to vote for RPI to build trust for himself, which works against Jeff's theory. Basically, it comes down to this: None of us no squat (still).
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01-15-2009, 01:05 AM | #1060 |
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vote rpi
Its apparently become my mo.
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01-15-2009, 01:26 AM | #1061 |
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BTW, no==know!
Bet you guys didn't no that.
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01-15-2009, 06:22 AM | #1062 |
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vote Telle
I still think its stupid to vote RPI. And I seem to be alone with Chief but possibly not so alone on Telle. |
01-15-2009, 07:02 AM | #1063 | |
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Better luck next time students, this must be a Frosh dorm. |
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01-15-2009, 08:22 AM | #1064 | |
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Quote:
First off, let me preface that you're voting for who I consider our most likely suspect for the wolf But I have to ask, what if RPI is just a villager? If we lynch him when there are 5 of us left, we lose the game. I'd hate to play if that way. If we lynch him now, the unknown is taken out. I like our chances a great deal more if we're wrong on Telle if it's 4:1 and not 3:1:1 and we're just banking that RPI is the janitor so we lynch him and it's 2:1 |
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01-15-2009, 09:30 AM | #1065 |
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At this point I don't think I'd vote to lynch him ever. In anycase, if the numbers build on Telle and she votes RPI to save herself, then I don't believe the numbers will be there for anyone but RPI.
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01-15-2009, 09:34 AM | #1066 |
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Well my catch is, I'm leaning towards a Telle vote. She'll then vote RPI making it 3-2 RPI. DT has said he doesn't want to lynch RPI, so it's 3-3 and we get no lynch (unless one of us switches)
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01-15-2009, 09:54 AM | #1067 |
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Can someone remind me to sign up for the next game? Plz, k thx.
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01-15-2009, 09:59 AM | #1068 | |
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Quote:
Yes exactly, my math was wrong. |
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01-15-2009, 10:14 AM | #1069 |
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I figured it was But with that said, the same would apply to any non-RPI person we put our votes on. Vote Telle |
01-15-2009, 11:02 AM | #1070 | |
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Quote:
I'll go with you on Chief. And I will vote RPI-Fan if I have to to save my own skin, but I think it's still smarter to search for the wolf than to take out the inactive probable-janitor. VOTE CHIEF RUM |
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01-15-2009, 11:12 AM | #1071 |
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And btw as things stand now if DT votes for me and I then move my vote to RPI-Fan, that will then produce a tie. We do NOT want to waste another lynch on a tie, so that means somebody better then move their vote. I'd rather die as a villager than have a tie because at least then the village would have one less person on the possible-wolf list.
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01-15-2009, 11:21 AM | #1072 |
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If someone wants to join Telle against Chief, I'll support it. But I haven't had much luck this game with movements like that, so unless Heinz or DT jumps on Chief or more info comes out I'll revaluate where we stand later on before deadline.
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01-15-2009, 12:59 PM | #1073 |
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I'm going to pull some more at that vote history.
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01-15-2009, 01:06 PM | #1074 | |
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Quote: Quote:
Ok, pulling this up, our 3 non-landslide votes. Our cast of characters, in alphabetical order Abe - 2nd voter on a wolf, 3rd voter on a villager/janitor, coffin-nailer on a villager Chief - Only voter on a villager, Final voter on a villager, 1st voter on a villager/janitor DT - 5th voter on a wolf, 3rd on a villager, 3rd on a villager Heinz - 1st voter on a wolf, 2nd on a villager, 1st on a villager Jeff - 3rd voter on a wolf, 4th on a villager, 4th on a villager RPI - Nobody cares Telle - 3rd on a villager, 1st on a villager, 2nd on a villager |
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01-15-2009, 01:11 PM | #1075 |
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Thoughts
Abe - Said his first vote was luck. Was pounding the lynch RPI idea but went away from that at the sake of ensuring a lynch yesterday. Good player, has played the outlast game before against me and won. I'm wary. Chief - Tough read for me without the head-to-head interaction. Votes aren't great, but he's also pigeonholed based on when he's online. Somewhat wary. DT - 1st vote was great, next votes not so much. Really anti-RPI-lynch, but repeatedly mentioned that RPI should be the final lynch. Worries me because if he knows RPI isn't the janitor, he's trying to pull a fast one Heinz - I'd be happy to recap myself, but will save the self-serving paragraph unless asked Jeff - Very nice 1st vote, also didn't want RPI lynched but has abandoned the idea of lynching him last at least. I don't think I'm voting for Jeff today, at all. Unless he proclaims he's a wolf Telle - 3 villager votes as well. 1st one was big, and I've been saying it's understandable all along, but there is understandable and there is wolf-helping. Next votes are as bad as the rest of us. |
01-15-2009, 01:21 PM | #1076 |
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I think if I'm switching off of Telle, it's to DT (75% let's say) or Abe (25%).
I don't think I can "excuse" Telle's Day One vote on Jackal that made it 4-3-2 but condemn Chief for his Day One vote that was the first vote cast in the entire game. Furthermore, lets look at wolf sets. Hoops/EF/Abe - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself Hoops/EF/CR - Would mean Day One hoops still voted against his 3rd wolf, even knowing his partner couldn't flip to help out in a save situation, or break a possible tie. I'd contend this would be an uncharacteristically bad player by one of the top players we've got Hoops/EF/DT - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself Hoops/EF/Jeff - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself Hoops/EF/Heinz - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself Hoops/EF/Telle - Would mean the wolves had the more logical Day One split, with the wolf-under-fire saving himself and his partner wolves splitting their lot among the two contenders. |
01-15-2009, 01:26 PM | #1077 |
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Love that last post. Thinking it over.
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01-15-2009, 01:27 PM | #1078 |
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How many wolves do you think would have taken a chance on voting for EagleFan on Day 1? We know that hoops did shortly before the reveal, probably with the plan to move his vote if the reveal went well. DT put his vote on EagleFan shortly before hoops did, and I can't imagine they'd decide to both go with the exact same strategy. So that's something in DT's favor.
jeheinz went after EF early and hard and stuck with it, which is why I've considered him more on the "likely to be good" category. Abe and jeff061 came afterwards but not as strongly and could have been setting themselves up to move their vote afterwards. The only two still alive that didn't vote for EF on Day 1 are Chief and me (oh, and RPI-Fan but I don't think he really counts into all this). Unfortunately that doesn't really look good for me, but it does give me more reason to look at Chief. And it would be easy for him as a wolf to hide behind the fact that he has to put in early more or less random votes because of his work schedule. |
01-15-2009, 01:28 PM | #1079 |
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I just can't see some sort of logical way to say that Telle is a lesser candidate than CR or the rest of us who voted EF on Day One.
My best guess here is that it's one of these combinations Telle's the wolf, Abe is the janitor (heavy RPI lynch desire could show that he knows RPI is a villager and is ok taking heat after RPI's lynch if it means the heat stays off Telle for two days total, he carries the RPI vote to today) Telle's the wolf, CR is the janitor (Throws his Day One vote as a safe harbor for wolves. His Day Two vote saves his "out" as RPI is still alive, but Day Three he's ok with his lynch, since it may draw him heat needed to save his wolf partner and he carries it forward today) DT is the wolf, RPI is the janitor. Very anti-RPI lynch, because he's his janitor. Then if RPI is the last lynch and is revealed to be the janitor, DT garners trust for the final vote via his plan working out. |
01-15-2009, 01:32 PM | #1080 | |
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I think that's my main point, I can't see a sane set of wolves basically both offing the 3rd on Day One (more or less) with no good reason. Hell, if they did, hats off to 'em for today and I'd love to read EF's PM's! So yeah, if that puts me at you (telle) and CR, I can't see how the votes are leading me to think that CR is the better vote over you. |
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01-15-2009, 01:39 PM | #1081 |
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Well, Chief also keeps going after RPI-Fan. This is a safe a thing for a wolf to do and wastes a day of us searching for a wolf.
On Day 2 he was the second to vote for EF, right after Danny revealed what happened. He could very well have known that something went wrong with the kill that night by communication with the other wolves and thus was eager to get his vote on EF to right away to gain trust. Day 4 he moved his vote, sealing the lynch for a villager. |
01-15-2009, 01:41 PM | #1082 |
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At this point I'm thinking Chief or Abe. I don't think DT and hoops would have voted for EagleFan so close together and neither one move their vote "believing" the reveal.
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01-15-2009, 01:47 PM | #1083 |
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I guess all of this doesn't change what my opinion has been. The idea that Hoops would be smart enough not to vote on a wolf because of Rum's schedule is plausible but doesn't quite fly. I don't think you can risk going an entire game not voting for a wolf as a wolf, you take your chances with the schedule.
That said, Telle and Rum are equal to me I can go either way. At this point in the short term I think it's a matter of who we can vote out successfully. Abe is a distant 3rd. DT I'll admin has completely convinced me based on what he's said and how he's acted more than what's he's done. A potential mistake I know, I'll feel like a fool if he's the last wolf. But I'm fairly confident he's not. |
01-15-2009, 01:50 PM | #1084 |
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More thinking about I'd almost give the slight nod to Rum over Telle. I'd think splitting up votes D1 as wolves seems a little to planned and obvious by now. But I haven't played in awhile.
Note, this gives Rum a very very slight edge to me, I'd still go either way easily. |
01-15-2009, 01:51 PM | #1085 |
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NM screw that last post, data got jumbled in my head i think.
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01-15-2009, 01:51 PM | #1086 | |
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Not sure what you mean here, I mean either one will vote in self-defense I'd think. |
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01-15-2009, 01:52 PM | #1087 |
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DT just hopped on, I"m interested on his take
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01-15-2009, 01:52 PM | #1088 |
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je - i don't know why you keep discounting the very high probability that RPI is the janitor??
That being said - I'm not a wolf and not the janitor. Loved your vote/pair analysis -- that was frigging awesome. It's between Telle and CR in my mind. Can't help but wonder if either Jeff or Heinze may be the wolf though, and they're driving the discussion to keep it away from them and keep themselves safe? |
01-15-2009, 01:58 PM | #1089 | |
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I'm doing about 30 things at work on one monitor while I read this on another. Clearly I'm not all here, heh. |
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01-15-2009, 01:59 PM | #1090 | |
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Well I have been saying Telle for 3 days and CR for 2 now I think. Not exactly a change of strategy on my part. |
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01-15-2009, 02:11 PM | #1091 | |
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I still likely think he is, if I had to call that shot now. But it's like we've run our course on the whiffs the last two days that it has at least entered into my mind, as a Plan B, that he's not. I don't think he's the wolf, but if he's also not the janitor, then the village is in trouble since the wolf and the actual janitor could control the vote as early as tomorrow (2-2 with RPI not voting would be a no lynch, then the wolf offs one of the two villagers and they'd have a 2-1 advantage and win the game) This isn't really an argument for lynching him, but I'd rather lynch him even as a villager than miss on a participating villager today, since at least at that point the baddies don't have numbers tomorrow. *Moreso* though, I'm looking at how people have played off of the RPI situation and thinking ok if that person knows RPI is X, what's their angle, and so on... |
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01-15-2009, 02:12 PM | #1092 | |
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A fair enough point I suppose, but really, with the dearth of activity we've seen of late what does it take, like a post an hour to "drive" the conversation? |
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01-15-2009, 02:19 PM | #1093 |
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Vote count as of post 1092:
2 - RPI-Fan - Chief Rum (1057), Abe Sargent (1060) 2 - Telle - jeff061 (1062), jeheinz (1069) 1 - Chief Rum - Telle (1070) |
01-15-2009, 02:30 PM | #1094 |
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Looks to me we could possibly get 4 on CR and he couldn't tie it. Correct?
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01-15-2009, 02:33 PM | #1095 |
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01-15-2009, 02:34 PM | #1096 | |
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Frankly, that is pretty convincing for Telle. About as convincing as you normally get in this game. Okay, I'll play dice. unvote rpi vote telle And Telle, I understand if this gets your vote on me. If you are a wolf or are not I understand you might not likethis, and I accept that.
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01-15-2009, 02:36 PM | #1097 |
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Yeah, that was a perfect post for the situation. Going to remember that analysis in future games.
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01-15-2009, 02:37 PM | #1098 | |
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We can get 4 on anyone, can't we? Hell, we can probably get 5 on anyone too I'd wager I'm not voting based on lynchability, this isn't the MLB Draft. |
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01-15-2009, 02:39 PM | #1099 | |
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There's not enough people to get a vote on you. Looks like it's me, Chief, or RPI-Fan. |
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01-15-2009, 02:39 PM | #1100 |
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Well I was only making that statement as better Rum than a tie. But looks like that's hopefully not going to be an issue.
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