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Old 01-14-2009, 09:10 PM   #1051
Telle
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Well that sucks. Anyone else feel like we're just taking shots in the dark?
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Old 01-14-2009, 09:10 PM   #1052
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At Hannibal a bit, I voted to put him ahead of RPI. I'm still comfortable with my two targets.
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Old 01-14-2009, 09:12 PM   #1053
Telle
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Originally Posted by jeff061 View Post
At Hannibal a bit, I voted to put him ahead of RPI. I'm still comfortable with my two targets.

Which are?
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Old 01-14-2009, 09:12 PM   #1054
jeff061
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You and Rummie .
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Old 01-14-2009, 09:13 PM   #1055
Telle
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So what do you have on Chief Rum?
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Old 01-14-2009, 09:15 PM   #1056
jeff061
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I posted yesterday on it. Will spend more time if needed tomorrow, think I'm done for today though. In short voting and posting patterns for the night Gram was lynched narrowed my list down.

Actually voted for Chief today, today switch til the end.
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Old 01-15-2009, 12:41 AM   #1057
Chief Rum
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Phfffft...or whatever Bill used to say in the old Bloom County comics.

This is a disappointing day to come home to after a long day of work. I can't really complain about the Hannibal choice, because he was my #1 choice as a potential wolf. I think RPI was the way to vote because we are getting to the point where it becomes too dangerous to keep ignoring him (he could come back and suddenly become a serious thorn in our side). But Hannibal was always at the top of my suspect list as an actual wolf. Dealing with RPI isn't about getting a wolf, but being cautious about the approaching endgame.

So not only did we not get RPI, by far the best suspect I had has turned out to be simply a misguided villager.

Lastly, there is BK. It's no surprise he bought it today, but I was really hoping to get more from him before he was killed. He left a couple PMs from me unanswered (was hoping two experienced players PMing, we could come up with some candidates or try to figure things out).

Today, RPI wasn't necessary. I think it is tomorrow, though (Thursday). There are seven players left, one of whom is RPI and another is the wolf. If we don't lynch RPI and choose bad again tomorrow for the lynch, that puts us at just three good guys, along with the wolf and RPI, after another night kill. That is waaaaayyyy too close for comfort. I like the odds of four good guys (all active) and one wolf left after tomorrow much better than the other way around.

VOTE RPI FAN

I will check in in the morning, and be back before deadline tomorrow, so this vote can change if needed.
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Old 01-15-2009, 12:47 AM   #1058
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by jeff061 View Post
I posted yesterday on it. Will spend more time if needed tomorrow, think I'm done for today though. In short voting and posting patterns for the night Gram was lynched narrowed my list down.

Actually voted for Chief today, today switch til the end.

Telle, I think one of his main points seems to be a theory he has that the wolf wouldn't have voted for RPI yesterday, and I voted for Gramm, so that puts me on his short list.

I can understand the suspicion, but really, I think he's reaching quite a bit, especially considering he is ignoring that I turned around the next day and voted RPI from the start, and have already done so today as well (and stated my reasons why). As for the Gramm vote, I said it then and it has been acknowledged (I forget by who, either Jeff or DT) that my choice was between Gramm and a non-vote near deadline, so looks like a lose-lose for me there with Jeff.

The funny thing is that Jeff himself is not any more cleared than me, but he's around and driving conversation while I am at work, so I guess that puts him above suspicion a bit. I don't know, I put him on the same level as DT and Abe and yourself for suspicion in my book. None of us are cleared, and I don't know that my vote would go to Jeff if RPI weren't my choice (probably wouldn't actually).
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Old 01-15-2009, 12:49 AM   #1059
Chief Rum
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BTW, I don't know that I really understand the reasoning for why the wolf has to be in the Gramm voters. Not like RPI had been around much even at that point, so it would be pretty foolish for the wolf to be counting on the return of RPI Fan to save him.

Someone else (Heinze? DT?) suggested that the wolf would actually be more likely to vote for RPI to build trust for himself, which works against Jeff's theory.

Basically, it comes down to this: None of us no squat (still).

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Old 01-15-2009, 01:05 AM   #1060
Abe Sargent
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vote rpi

Its apparently become my mo.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:26 AM   #1061
Chief Rum
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BTW, no==know!

Bet you guys didn't no that.
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Old 01-15-2009, 06:22 AM   #1062
jeff061
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vote Telle

I still think its stupid to vote RPI. And I seem to be alone with Chief but possibly not so alone on Telle.
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Old 01-15-2009, 07:02 AM   #1063
Grammaticus
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
3 - RPI-Fan - Chief Rum (951), Hannibal (961)
5 - Hannibal - jeheinz (970), Telle (997) DT (1016) Jeff (1024) Abe
1 - jeff061 - Barkeep (939)

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Some small discussions pop up but in the end it is decided Hannibal must go. You all string him up and wait a few minutes but nothing happens.

Time to go drink some Chianti
Enter sound of ghostly chains dragging....

Better luck next time students, this must be a Frosh dorm.
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Old 01-15-2009, 08:22 AM   #1064
jeheinz72
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vote Telle

I still think its stupid to vote RPI. And I seem to be alone with Chief but possibly not so alone on Telle.

First off, let me preface that you're voting for who I consider our most likely suspect for the wolf

But I have to ask, what if RPI is just a villager? If we lynch him when there are 5 of us left, we lose the game. I'd hate to play if that way. If we lynch him now, the unknown is taken out. I like our chances a great deal more if we're wrong on Telle if it's 4:1 and not 3:1:1 and we're just banking that RPI is the janitor so we lynch him and it's 2:1
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Old 01-15-2009, 09:30 AM   #1065
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At this point I don't think I'd vote to lynch him ever. In anycase, if the numbers build on Telle and she votes RPI to save herself, then I don't believe the numbers will be there for anyone but RPI.
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Old 01-15-2009, 09:34 AM   #1066
jeheinz72
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Well my catch is, I'm leaning towards a Telle vote. She'll then vote RPI making it 3-2 RPI. DT has said he doesn't want to lynch RPI, so it's 3-3 and we get no lynch (unless one of us switches)
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Old 01-15-2009, 09:54 AM   #1067
Poli
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Can someone remind me to sign up for the next game? Plz, k thx.
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Old 01-15-2009, 09:59 AM   #1068
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Well my catch is, I'm leaning towards a Telle vote. She'll then vote RPI making it 3-2 RPI. DT has said he doesn't want to lynch RPI, so it's 3-3 and we get no lynch (unless one of us switches)

Yes exactly, my math was wrong.
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Old 01-15-2009, 10:14 AM   #1069
jeheinz72
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Yes exactly, my math was wrong.

I figured it was

But with that said, the same would apply to any non-RPI person we put our votes on.

Vote Telle
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Old 01-15-2009, 11:02 AM   #1070
Telle
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vote Telle

I still think its stupid to vote RPI. And I seem to be alone with Chief but possibly not so alone on Telle.

I'll go with you on Chief. And I will vote RPI-Fan if I have to to save my own skin, but I think it's still smarter to search for the wolf than to take out the inactive probable-janitor.

VOTE CHIEF RUM
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Old 01-15-2009, 11:12 AM   #1071
Telle
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And btw as things stand now if DT votes for me and I then move my vote to RPI-Fan, that will then produce a tie. We do NOT want to waste another lynch on a tie, so that means somebody better then move their vote. I'd rather die as a villager than have a tie because at least then the village would have one less person on the possible-wolf list.
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Old 01-15-2009, 11:21 AM   #1072
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If someone wants to join Telle against Chief, I'll support it. But I haven't had much luck this game with movements like that, so unless Heinz or DT jumps on Chief or more info comes out I'll revaluate where we stand later on before deadline.
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Old 01-15-2009, 12:59 PM   #1073
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I'm going to pull some more at that vote history.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:06 PM   #1074
jeheinz72
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Originally Posted by Lathum
6 - EagleFan - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86), jeff061 (109), The Jackal (135), DT (189), Hoops (196)
6 - The Jackel - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103), Telle (147), EF (164), Danny (194) Hannibal (229)
1 - Grammaticus - RPI-Fan (51),
1 - Danny - Chief Rum (46)






Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum
4 - RPI-Fan - Hannibal (719), Barkeep (730), Abe Sargent (811), Grammaticus (888),
6 - Grammaticus - Telle (814), jeheinze (816), DaddyTorgo (836), jeff061 (874) Danny (905), CR (906)





Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
3 - RPI-Fan - Chief Rum (951), Hannibal (961)
5 - Hannibal - jeheinz (970), Telle (997) DT (1016) Jeff (1024) Abe
1 - jeff061 - Barkeep (939)
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Ok, pulling this up, our 3 non-landslide votes. Our cast of characters, in alphabetical order

Abe - 2nd voter on a wolf, 3rd voter on a villager/janitor, coffin-nailer on a villager

Chief - Only voter on a villager, Final voter on a villager, 1st voter on a villager/janitor

DT - 5th voter on a wolf, 3rd on a villager, 3rd on a villager

Heinz - 1st voter on a wolf, 2nd on a villager, 1st on a villager

Jeff - 3rd voter on a wolf, 4th on a villager, 4th on a villager

RPI - Nobody cares

Telle - 3rd on a villager, 1st on a villager, 2nd on a villager
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:11 PM   #1075
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Thoughts

Abe - Said his first vote was luck. Was pounding the lynch RPI idea but went away from that at the sake of ensuring a lynch yesterday. Good player, has played the outlast game before against me and won. I'm wary.

Chief - Tough read for me without the head-to-head interaction. Votes aren't great, but he's also pigeonholed based on when he's online. Somewhat wary.

DT - 1st vote was great, next votes not so much. Really anti-RPI-lynch, but repeatedly mentioned that RPI should be the final lynch. Worries me because if he knows RPI isn't the janitor, he's trying to pull a fast one

Heinz - I'd be happy to recap myself, but will save the self-serving paragraph unless asked

Jeff - Very nice 1st vote, also didn't want RPI lynched but has abandoned the idea of lynching him last at least. I don't think I'm voting for Jeff today, at all. Unless he proclaims he's a wolf

Telle - 3 villager votes as well. 1st one was big, and I've been saying it's understandable all along, but there is understandable and there is wolf-helping. Next votes are as bad as the rest of us.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:21 PM   #1076
jeheinz72
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I think if I'm switching off of Telle, it's to DT (75% let's say) or Abe (25%).

I don't think I can "excuse" Telle's Day One vote on Jackal that made it 4-3-2 but condemn Chief for his Day One vote that was the first vote cast in the entire game.

Furthermore, lets look at wolf sets.

Hoops/EF/Abe - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself

Hoops/EF/CR - Would mean Day One hoops still voted against his 3rd wolf, even knowing his partner couldn't flip to help out in a save situation, or break a possible tie. I'd contend this would be an uncharacteristically bad player by one of the top players we've got

Hoops/EF/DT - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself

Hoops/EF/Jeff - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself

Hoops/EF/Heinz - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself

Hoops/EF/Telle - Would mean the wolves had the more logical Day One split, with the wolf-under-fire saving himself and his partner wolves splitting their lot among the two contenders.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:26 PM   #1077
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Love that last post. Thinking it over.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:27 PM   #1078
Telle
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How many wolves do you think would have taken a chance on voting for EagleFan on Day 1? We know that hoops did shortly before the reveal, probably with the plan to move his vote if the reveal went well. DT put his vote on EagleFan shortly before hoops did, and I can't imagine they'd decide to both go with the exact same strategy. So that's something in DT's favor.

jeheinz went after EF early and hard and stuck with it, which is why I've considered him more on the "likely to be good" category. Abe and jeff061 came afterwards but not as strongly and could have been setting themselves up to move their vote afterwards.

The only two still alive that didn't vote for EF on Day 1 are Chief and me (oh, and RPI-Fan but I don't think he really counts into all this). Unfortunately that doesn't really look good for me, but it does give me more reason to look at Chief. And it would be easy for him as a wolf to hide behind the fact that he has to put in early more or less random votes because of his work schedule.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:28 PM   #1079
jeheinz72
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I just can't see some sort of logical way to say that Telle is a lesser candidate than CR or the rest of us who voted EF on Day One.

My best guess here is that it's one of these combinations

Telle's the wolf, Abe is the janitor (heavy RPI lynch desire could show that he knows RPI is a villager and is ok taking heat after RPI's lynch if it means the heat stays off Telle for two days total, he carries the RPI vote to today)

Telle's the wolf, CR is the janitor (Throws his Day One vote as a safe harbor for wolves. His Day Two vote saves his "out" as RPI is still alive, but Day Three he's ok with his lynch, since it may draw him heat needed to save his wolf partner and he carries it forward today)

DT is the wolf, RPI is the janitor. Very anti-RPI lynch, because he's his janitor. Then if RPI is the last lynch and is revealed to be the janitor, DT garners trust for the final vote via his plan working out.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:32 PM   #1080
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How many wolves do you think would have taken a chance on voting for EagleFan on Day 1? We know that hoops did shortly before the reveal, probably with the plan to move his vote if the reveal went well. DT put his vote on EagleFan shortly before hoops did, and I can't imagine they'd decide to both go with the exact same strategy. So that's something in DT's favor.

jeheinz went after EF early and hard and stuck with it, which is why I've considered him more on the "likely to be good" category. Abe and jeff061 came afterwards but not as strongly and could have been setting themselves up to move their vote afterwards.

The only two still alive that didn't vote for EF on Day 1 are Chief and me (oh, and RPI-Fan but I don't think he really counts into all this). Unfortunately that doesn't really look good for me, but it does give me more reason to look at Chief. And it would be easy for him as a wolf to hide behind the fact that he has to put in early more or less random votes because of his work schedule.

I think that's my main point, I can't see a sane set of wolves basically both offing the 3rd on Day One (more or less) with no good reason. Hell, if they did, hats off to 'em for today and I'd love to read EF's PM's!

So yeah, if that puts me at you (telle) and CR, I can't see how the votes are leading me to think that CR is the better vote over you.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:39 PM   #1081
Telle
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Well, Chief also keeps going after RPI-Fan. This is a safe a thing for a wolf to do and wastes a day of us searching for a wolf.

On Day 2 he was the second to vote for EF, right after Danny revealed what happened. He could very well have known that something went wrong with the kill that night by communication with the other wolves and thus was eager to get his vote on EF to right away to gain trust.

Day 4 he moved his vote, sealing the lynch for a villager.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:41 PM   #1082
Telle
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At this point I'm thinking Chief or Abe. I don't think DT and hoops would have voted for EagleFan so close together and neither one move their vote "believing" the reveal.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:47 PM   #1083
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I guess all of this doesn't change what my opinion has been. The idea that Hoops would be smart enough not to vote on a wolf because of Rum's schedule is plausible but doesn't quite fly. I don't think you can risk going an entire game not voting for a wolf as a wolf, you take your chances with the schedule.

That said, Telle and Rum are equal to me I can go either way. At this point in the short term I think it's a matter of who we can vote out successfully.

Abe is a distant 3rd. DT I'll admin has completely convinced me based on what he's said and how he's acted more than what's he's done. A potential mistake I know, I'll feel like a fool if he's the last wolf. But I'm fairly confident he's not.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:50 PM   #1084
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More thinking about I'd almost give the slight nod to Rum over Telle. I'd think splitting up votes D1 as wolves seems a little to planned and obvious by now. But I haven't played in awhile.

Note, this gives Rum a very very slight edge to me, I'd still go either way easily.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:51 PM   #1085
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NM screw that last post, data got jumbled in my head i think.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:51 PM   #1086
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At this point in the short term I think it's a matter of who we can vote out successfully.


Not sure what you mean here, I mean either one will vote in self-defense I'd think.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:52 PM   #1087
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DT just hopped on, I"m interested on his take
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:52 PM   #1088
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je - i don't know why you keep discounting the very high probability that RPI is the janitor??

That being said - I'm not a wolf and not the janitor.

Loved your vote/pair analysis -- that was frigging awesome.

It's between Telle and CR in my mind. Can't help but wonder if either Jeff or Heinze may be the wolf though, and they're driving the discussion to keep it away from them and keep themselves safe?
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:58 PM   #1089
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Not sure what you mean here, I mean either one will vote in self-defense I'd think.

I'm doing about 30 things at work on one monitor while I read this on another. Clearly I'm not all here, heh.
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Old 01-15-2009, 01:59 PM   #1090
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je - i don't know why you keep discounting the very high probability that RPI is the janitor??

That being said - I'm not a wolf and not the janitor.

Loved your vote/pair analysis -- that was frigging awesome.

It's between Telle and CR in my mind. Can't help but wonder if either Jeff or Heinze may be the wolf though, and they're driving the discussion to keep it away from them and keep themselves safe?

Well I have been saying Telle for 3 days and CR for 2 now I think. Not exactly a change of strategy on my part.
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:11 PM   #1091
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je - i don't know why you keep discounting the very high probability that RPI is the janitor??


I still likely think he is, if I had to call that shot now. But it's like we've run our course on the whiffs the last two days that it has at least entered into my mind, as a Plan B, that he's not.

I don't think he's the wolf, but if he's also not the janitor, then the village is in trouble since the wolf and the actual janitor could control the vote as early as tomorrow (2-2 with RPI not voting would be a no lynch, then the wolf offs one of the two villagers and they'd have a 2-1 advantage and win the game)

This isn't really an argument for lynching him, but I'd rather lynch him even as a villager than miss on a participating villager today, since at least at that point the baddies don't have numbers tomorrow.

*Moreso* though, I'm looking at how people have played off of the RPI situation and thinking ok if that person knows RPI is X, what's their angle, and so on...
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:12 PM   #1092
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Can't help but wonder if either Jeff or Heinze may be the wolf though, and they're driving the discussion to keep it away from them and keep themselves safe?

A fair enough point I suppose, but really, with the dearth of activity we've seen of late what does it take, like a post an hour to "drive" the conversation?
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Heinz has always been, and will always be a magnificent liar.
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:19 PM   #1093
Telle
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Vote count as of post 1092:

2 - RPI-Fan - Chief Rum (1057), Abe Sargent (1060)
2 - Telle - jeff061 (1062), jeheinz (1069)
1 - Chief Rum - Telle (1070)
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:30 PM   #1094
jeff061
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Looks to me we could possibly get 4 on CR and he couldn't tie it. Correct?
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:33 PM   #1095
Telle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeff061 View Post
Looks to me we could possibly get 4 on CR and he couldn't tie it. Correct?

Yep. If you, jeheinz, and DT all go.
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:34 PM   #1096
Abe Sargent
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeheinz72 View Post
I think if I'm switching off of Telle, it's to DT (75% let's say) or Abe (25%).

I don't think I can "excuse" Telle's Day One vote on Jackal that made it 4-3-2 but condemn Chief for his Day One vote that was the first vote cast in the entire game.

Furthermore, lets look at wolf sets.

Hoops/EF/Abe - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself

Hoops/EF/CR - Would mean Day One hoops still voted against his 3rd wolf, even knowing his partner couldn't flip to help out in a save situation, or break a possible tie. I'd contend this would be an uncharacteristically bad player by one of the top players we've got

Hoops/EF/DT - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself

Hoops/EF/Jeff - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself

Hoops/EF/Heinz - Would mean Day One they voted 2 out of 3 for the 3rd wolf, with EF saving himself

Hoops/EF/Telle - Would mean the wolves had the more logical Day One split, with the wolf-under-fire saving himself and his partner wolves splitting their lot among the two contenders.

Frankly, that is pretty convincing for Telle. About as convincing as you normally get in this game. Okay, I'll play dice.

unvote rpi
vote telle


And Telle, I understand if this gets your vote on me. If you are a wolf or are not I understand you might not likethis, and I accept that.
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:36 PM   #1097
jeff061
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Yeah, that was a perfect post for the situation. Going to remember that analysis in future games.
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:37 PM   #1098
jeheinz72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeff061 View Post
Looks to me we could possibly get 4 on CR and he couldn't tie it. Correct?


We can get 4 on anyone, can't we? Hell, we can probably get 5 on anyone too I'd wager

I'm not voting based on lynchability, this isn't the MLB Draft.
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Quote:
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Heinz has always been, and will always be a magnificent liar.
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:39 PM   #1099
Telle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Abe Sargent View Post
Frankly, that is pretty convincing for Telle. About as convincing as you normally get in this game. Okay, I'll play dice.

unvote rpi
vote telle


And Telle, I understand if this gets your vote on me. If you are a wolf or are not I understand you might not likethis, and I accept that.

There's not enough people to get a vote on you. Looks like it's me, Chief, or RPI-Fan.
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:39 PM   #1100
jeff061
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Well I was only making that statement as better Rum than a tie. But looks like that's hopefully not going to be an issue.
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