2015 MLB thread

[Lathum]

Colon was great yesterday and the Mets take game one from the Nats. With DeGrom and Harvey going the next 2 they have an excellent chance to win the first series on the road from a division rival.

[Grover]

Any recommended MLB podcasts out there?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Grover

Any recommended MLB podcasts out there?

I enjoy Buster Olney's 'Baseball Tonight' podcast. Monday through Friday. Episodes are around 45 minutes.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I think this is the key. Rick Porcello isn't anybody's idea of an ace, but if you can stay healthy and pitch innings in this market, you're going to get an 8-figure payday, and Boston has a) experiential evidence for why getting cute can backfire and b) a need for pitching. They traded Cespedes to get the guy. Doing that with the intent of having him be a one-year rental would just be dumb.

$20m per may not be a bargain, and it may even become a bad contract (it's not like Porcello's resume doesn't include a stinker of a season), but Boston painted themselves into this corner with how they handled Lester. If they're a little more serious with Lester last spring and end up retaining him, I don't know that they trade for Porcello or, if they do, if they end up paying him this kind of scratch.

I still liked Cespedes for Porcello in a vacuum, and think it would've been done even if Lester re-signed (obviously wouldn't have have Yoenis if Lester had signed an extension). Remember, we also traded for Wade Mikey and signed Masterson that week.

Overall, I'm not that worried about the pitching. I think Porcello is either a 2 or a 3, Miley a 3 or a 4, Kelly and Masterson both 5's, with Buchholz either being a 1 or a sub-replacement player that's out of the rotation due to injury or "injury". Between Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez and Wright someone will come up by July and hopefully move Kelly or Masterson to the bullpen, and worst case if that hasn't happened and we're in the hunt there are a plethora of free agent to be starters so we should be able to trade for one - Cueto, Latos, Gallardo the first three that come to mind, but a projected contender or two will probably fall flat too. I also know not everyone buys into them, but the Red Sox specifically targeted ground ball pitchers and catchers with great pitch-framing (even after Vazquez's unfortunate injury), so someone like Porcello will benefit even if he doesn't keep up the improvement he's shown in his age 24&25 seasons.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Edinson Volquez got $10m/y, league average pitchers who can throw 200 IP get $10m/y+. The closest comp, Homer Bailey, got 6/$108 while giving up an arb year. Porcello was going to get PAID Rick Porcello’s Upcoming Enormous Payday | FanGraphs Baseball

He's still 26 (younger than Jacob DeGrom, Brandon Workman, etc), has a career 4.30 ERA despite being rushed to the majors and playing in front of arguably the worst infield defense in the majors, and zero injury history. The money isn't going to be a steal, and there's always injury risk, but locking him up just for age 27-30 is amazing, even if he's "only" a 4.00 ERA guy, and not the 3.50 guy his FIP from the last 2 years indicates.

And because the comparison is inevitable, I'd rather have Jon Lester this year, I think it's a toss-up between the two for the next few years, but I'm ecstatic we're not committed to paying Jon Lester $50m in 2020/21. And I also think the Red Sox willingness to go as high as they did on the yearly $ is directly related to Lester turning down 4/$70 last year at this time, and how badly low-balling him backfired.

Great points and hope you and others that point this out are right.

[tarcone]

Go Cards!

See you all at the trade deadline or the playoffs.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Have a friend in the organization who took a cool selfie yesterday.......

[stevew]

Jeez, co-linked from that Porcello page was something about Jason Heyward being a 200m+ player. I don't get how baseball works anymore, and it's just amazing to me how some guy that does nothing particularly special or inspiring can suddenly command 20M+ a season due to some WAR number.

[Coffee Warlord]

Cubs - Cards postponed for tonight, due to forecast of rain and freezing wind chills.

Jeez, maybe we don't schedule night games in Chicago in April, guys?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Cubs - Cards postponed for tonight, due to forecast of rain and freezing wind chills.

Jeez, maybe we don't schedule night games in Chicago in April, guys?

Meh, they just wanted another day to install more toilets.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by stevew

Jeez, co-linked from that Porcello page was something about Jason Heyward being a 200m+ player. I don't get how baseball works anymore, and it's just amazing to me how some guy that does nothing particularly special or inspiring can suddenly command 20M+ a season due to some WAR number.

Being arguably the best defensive RF in the game maaaay have something to do with that . Along with being a decent offensive threat and only being 25. Heyward is going to be a big time player.

[stevew]

20M a season for great RF defense, roughly a .750 OPS and 11-18 homers a season is f'n insane.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by stevew

20M a season for great RF defense, roughly a .750 OPS and 11-18 homers a season is f'n insane.

These days a .750 OPS is basically equivalent to an OPS+ of 110. The game has changed - I'll do a quick comparison. In 2002, Carlos Beltran was 25. He had an .850 OPS, which equated to an 114 OPS+.

Add that to absolutely stellar defense and decent potential power (it wasn't there the last year, but in 2012 he had 27 HRs).

In addition, players salaries have risen. $20mil a year isn't not some magical barrier - I mean, as we discussed, Porcello just got that.

[Lathum]

Starting Matt Latos in 2 of my daily leagues appears to have been a mistake.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Starting Matt Latos in 2 of my daily leagues appears to have been a mistake.

Yup. He got destroyed. 7 ER in 2/3rds of an inning.

[Buccaneer]

And Latos' 94.50 ERA was not even the worse on his team. A Marlin's reliever is sitting at 108.00.

[Buccaneer]

Nice win for the Pads - but they need to have their middle and setup relievers to simmer down. Closer Kimbrel was golden - striking out the side in the 9th.

[Easy Mac]

Ehhh, Kimbrel was just excess for the Braves when they can go 162-0 and win all their games by 10 runs.

[cartman]

Adrian Beltre forgot then quickly remembered the new pace of play rule about staying in the batters box.

[Chief Rum]

That's awesome. I love seeing the ump start to point it out, too. Johnny on the spot.

[cartman]

Brett Lawrie of the A's had a forgettable night at the plate last night. He faced a total of 12 pitches, and struck out 4 times.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by cartman

Brett Lawrie of the A's had a forgettable night at the plate last night. He faced a total of 12 pitches, and struck out 4 times.

The Gilded Golden Sombrero.

[cartman]

Worse even than the team Bugs Bunny pitched against.

[ISiddiqui]

Saw this on my Facebook feed:

Originally Posted by Baseball-Reference.com

There have been 9 shutouts this season. That's a live-ball era record for teams playing in their 1st 2 games. 12 teams have only played 1 gm

--

#BringBackTheRoids

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Saw this on my Facebook feed:



--

#BringBackTheRoids

More like #StopExpandingTheStrikeZoneBelowTheKnees and #StopPlayingNightGamesInNorthernCitiesInApril

Although, I'd take an even earlier start if it meant more playoff games in late September/early October. Baseball's most important games should not be played in below freezing temperatures.

[Grover]

mlb.tv is the best sports package value out there.

[SirFozzie]

We may have a "First Run Wins" game in Philly, 39 degrees and rainy.. lovely weather. Thanks ESPN :P

[stevew]

I wish they would play more double headers and go to 27-28man rosters(maybe with 22 active on any given game). Get the series in earlier. You could shave a week pretty easily with minor work.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Whew! Lots of bad blood in the White Sox/Royals series already. Cain beaning in last game and now both pitchers have clearly thrown at batters in the first 1 1/2 innings.

[SirFozzie]

LOL, they announced 26,600+ for the Philly game. they're lucky if there is 9-10,000 there.

[Easy Mac]

Break up the Barves.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Whew. It's like the playoffs never ended. Amazing stuff.

[MrBug708]

Adrian Gonzalez has had a decent start with 4 HR's through 3 games

[Galaril]

Porcello and the new 82 million contract after one start looks great ��

[Ryche]

Nice start for the Rockies. Could be a dangerous team if they stay healthy. That's a huge if though.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Porcello and the new 82 million contract after one start looks great ��

.08 of a WAR here, .3 there, eventually he'll be a bargain!

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Porcello and the new 82 million contract after one start looks great ��

He threw one bad pitch!

He'll be fine.

[Bigsmooth]

Heidi Watney...have mercy. Love me some Quick Pitch on MLB Network.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Nice start for the Rockies. Could be a dangerous team if they stay healthy. That's a huge if though.

I dunno, they were playing the Brewers

[Logan]

Harvey-Strasburg makes me very happy my new office has lots of TVs.

[Lathum]

Harvey is back baby!!

[Ramzavail]

6 inn, 0 R, 9 K, 3 against Harper. Eat it.

[Logan]

He's so awesome to watch.

[Chief Rum]

I have Harvey and Harper in a league. Fortunately, we don't count strikeouts for hitters as a category (so just regular stats are hurt there).

Happy to hear about Harvey!

[JPhillips]

Billy Hamilton has stolen six bases against the Pirates in this series, including one today on a pitch out.

[Grover]

Sweep!

Team defense for the Royals was outstanding against the White Sox to start the year. Bullpen was as solid as ever as well.

It is encouraging to see Mike Moustakas, though he went 0-fer today, taking pitches, learning patience and being able to go the other way. Last night he had forced the Chicago defense to play him straight up. He's already showing massive improvement over last year. I was very skeptical of him batting 2nd, but he's up to the task early on.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by stevew

20M a season for great RF defense, roughly a .750 OPS and 11-18 homers a season is f'n insane.

We have a better understanding of defense and with it has come a reevaluation of what a player is worth. It's always been simple to look at defense as a run saved is equal to a run scored, but we didn't have reliable metrics to tell us when a run was saved so defensive value was reserved for players that were obvious and usually up the middle players. Defensive metrics are still way behind offensive metrics, but the gap is closing quickly.

10 years ago Jonathan Lucroy would have been considered an average to above average defensive catcher because his arm is fairly average. Josh Donaldson wouldn't have been seen as one of the 10 best players in baseball with a sub-.800 OPS. Juan Lagares is probably a 4th or 5th outfielder. Alex Gordon would have been an above average player.

As for Heyward, the fielding bible estimates he's taken away 140 more bases than the average right fielder on deeply hit balls (+40 in 2014 alone) and saved 32 defensive runs in right field last year. You can make the argument that he's not only the best right fielder in the game, but the best defensive player overall. Combine that with a 3 year OPS plus over 112 and you have a player worth $20 million.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Grover

Sweep!

Team defense for the Royals was outstanding against the White Sox to start the year. Bullpen was as solid as ever as well.

It is encouraging to see Mike Moustakas, though he went 0-fer today, taking pitches, learning patience and being able to go the other way. Last night he had forced the Chicago defense to play him straight up. He's already showing massive improvement over last year. I was very skeptical of him batting 2nd, but he's up to the task early on.

The early HR power is very encouraging. Everyone is hitting with a lot of power. Multiple no-doubter shots from our guys. We're usually just rooting for a pop fly to clear the fence.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

The early HR power is very encouraging. Everyone is hitting with a lot of power. Multiple no-doubter shots from our guys. We're usually just rooting for a pop fly to clear the fence.

Compared to the barren HR landscape of 2014, this is an incredible change.

And I know he was joking, but hearing Steve Stewart quip that the Royals are on pace for 270 HRs was fun to hear.

The intensity from last year's playoffs seems to have stuck with this group early on. Very encouraging overall.

Morales and Rios looking like good value on the FA market as well.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Grover

Sweep!

If it weren't for an error, the Tigers would have blanked the Twins in each of the first three games.