Werewolf CLX - Atlantic City - GAME OVER - Page 32

Autumn · 05-05-2013, 10:09 PM

Day 10 Voting

1 Chief Rum ---------- The Jackal (1550)

Chief Rum · 05-05-2013, 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

vote CR

This is end game. I hope you're not locked into this, because if you are, we very well could lose.

Any specific reason you went with me and not CW? Is it really because you couldn't confirm my BG use while CW has been confirmed for sending the ladies? Keep in mind, no one else claimed the BG role that day, even though I said I had it and used it.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 01:18 AM

I'm going to be voting Coffee - I strongly suggest you do likewise Jackal. If CW is a villager then it's vital that whoever the other villager is bids on Cookies Ladies and sends them to the other person.

Coffee if you are a villager and after you've finished slagging me off it would be very helpful if you say who you think the wolf is. If you want to win and we can block the night kill I'll have to decide who the wolf is. Chief, if you think there's a better case to be made against Jackal I'd like you to say it today rather than tomorrow.

I'll run through my reasoning again sometime during my day because whether Coffee is wolf or villager he deserves that from me after what must have been a tough game for him (particularly if he's a wolf).

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 01:50 AM

Jackal, obviously we need to agree on our candidate for today. My gut is telling me that Coffee is the most likliest to be a wolf but I trust my gut as far as I can throw it, at the moment. I think we should be able to get two votes in but I can't be sure of that so I want to be as certain as possible of getting the right guy today, if nothing else, then to avoid having to do all this again tomorrow.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 02:29 AM

The main thing that has changed from yesterday is that I'm a lot less sure about Coffee being a wolf because of his seer-claim and clearing me. Obviously that's a big plus in his favour. If we agree that the double-bid thing was the result of using a bid though Path then there's no way he could get the seer and the hitman. So he must be clear along with me and we should lynch Chief and then, if we get the chance, you tomorrow.

One obvious possibility is that he's on the level and we should lynch Chief and you. The other possibility is that he read my post and plan yesterday(it seems like he's the only one who actually did

) and was left with a dilemma.

Let's say he's a wolf. He reads my plan which will result in him being lynched today. What options does he have.
1) Kill me. But then he's got to worry that you guys will follow my plan anyway AND worry that Chief or mau didn't do as I asked and actually scanned someone else.
2) Try to kill the seer bidder. He has a 50/50 chance unless Jackal or I have lied about our money. In this hypothetical situation, he presumably knows I haven't lied and can do the maths so he knows Jackal hasn't lied so that leaves Chief and mau. But he can't afford killing Chief because he's the main rival to a lynch. So he has to gut it out, kill mau and claim to have got the seer as quickly as possible.

So what does he do with the fake seer-claim?
a) Claim someone's a wolf? Even if he is believed then, if we can block the night kill in the way I planned, then he'll be lynched tomorrow.
b) Clear someone? Nobody is going to buy him scanning Jackal, although that would have been his ideal candidate. Now this is where the doubt creeps into my mind. I think his best play would be to clear Chief. It's the most likely scan target. I'm probably not going to believe him but that can be spun as me being a wolf trying to wriggle out of a lynch. Maybe he figures I'll sacrifice myself, offer to be lynched and tell people to vote him tomorrow (correctly as it happens).

Anyway in hypothetical wolf-Coffee's place having read my plan I think that this is what I would have done. My mind is a torturous place though.

The other option is that the lone wolf is able to make more than one bid. Then it's much easier for Coffee to pull this off. I think he argued that he would have made multiple bids in that case. But if he did he would be setting out a sign saying "Hey guys, you probably shouldn't vote DV or Path because the wolf can make multiple bids after all." So that argument doesn't hold.

So, what I get from this is that Coffee claiming the seer and clearing me gives him a decent plus in my trust list. I just don't think it's enough to make up for the positives with Jackal and Chief, but it makes it a lot tougher for me.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 02:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Jackal - if he's a wolf then he uses his kill to buy trust for himself at the cost of one of his team-mates. Then, to further hammer home the point, he is "cleared" by Zinto making him a bigger target to Atlantic City, costing his team $1100. Again it's possible but just seems highly unlikely. He's been straightforward about his bids and bets and they seem to match up. Announced that he got the kill yesterday but didn't use it.

This hasn't changed. Wolf-Jackal takes the odd risk but I just don't believe he sacrifices a team-mate to get himself trust on day two, when it could make him a kill/conversion target of the other team. He doesn't know for sure that the hitman doesn't kill wolves. I don't think even Lathum would do this on day two.

DAY FIVE WINNING BIDS (3 wolves)
Mick "Stones" McGee - $500 - Claimed by Jackal, used on self
Donna Black Investigations - $896 - Claimed by mau, used on Zinto
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - $125 . Claimed by narcizo, used on ?
Freddie von Maur, Casino Manager - $700

BLACK MARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler, hitman - $501
Mikhail Vavilov, arms dealer - $1,066

This hangs on whether DV bid on the Casino Manager or not. If he didn't then Jackal can't be a wolf unless the wolves had multiple bids already by this stage. In any case it's got to be a big plus in Jackal (and my) favour. Unless I'm missing something, if Jackal is a wolf then DV will have given him the win by not mentioning it here.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 02:59 AM

So with that said we should be alright, as long as the prostitute plan works. We lynch Coffee/Chief today and then lynch the other one tomorrow. But we can't be sure that the plan will work so we ought to lynch the most likliest target.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 03:59 AM

Chief - hasn't been around much which makes it harder to read him. I seem to remember that wolf-Chief is less active than villager-Chief, but I don't remember ever playing in a game where he's a wolf so that would be a pretty hazy memory anyway.

For me the main thing in Chief's favour is the JAG clearance on day one. Yes, we all say "but remember he could be a wolf buying trust" but 9 times out of 10 it's what it seems to be. A villager clearing another villager. Is a wolf really going to clear one of the best villagers in the game when he, with great luck for the wolves, happened to have been in the middle of a lynch vote? He could, at least, clear someone a bit less useful to the village. Yes, I understand that by picking JAG he made his case stronger but is it really worth the money and the potential trouble JAG can cause just to get some trust longer down the line? When he, presumably, doesn't even know that JAG is a villager? For all wolf-Chief knows he's giving himself away by clearing a possible wolf. That makes no sense whatsoever. Chief isn't that stupid.

And we do know that the same wolf team DID try the same trick the next day. Like I said before, is the same team going to go to the well on the very next day? Zinto took a risk clearing Jackal but you can see a big difference in the choice of candidate. Zinto picked someone he thought was very likely to be a villager. He was taking a risk because Jackal could have been Atlantic City and buying trust by announcing his kill target. But I think Zinto thought the same as me, that wolf-JAckal would target someone other than fontisian on night one. Zinto's play strikes vaguely of desperation. But yes, maybe he was actually counting on being discovered and that people would then immediately presume that Chief's must be on the level. Except there's still the chance that people will think that Chief is Atlantic City.

Chief's voting record isn't fantastic but who's is? Most of the wolf lynches in this game have been slam-dunks up until Path got turned. I just don't think that Chief takes the numerous risks involved in clearing JAG on day one and then allows Zinto to try the same stunt with Jackal the next day.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 04:01 AM

Actually thinking about it - Zinto clearing Jackal is a negative for Jackal. Zinto can't have been sure that Jackal was villager so it was a big, big risk. Meh!

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 04:16 AM

So Coffee. The case against him isn't great objectively speaking, just better than the cases against Chief and Jackal. Stick DV against him and I vote DV every time, for example - as I proved.

There's last night scan that I admit is a positive for him - just not as big a positive as he'd have liked. And there's the announcement that he got the kill he used on murra5y. That's a positive, although less of one as murra5y was on the opposing side. But I think there are discrepencies in his arguments and actions.

For instance he said that he didn't think Path should use his kill on murra5y. I've got to give him credit for that - he was right. in retrospect using the kill really hurt the village. Were he a wolf he wouldn't actually know how much he would gain by Path using the kill though. And, obviously, as a wolf he's going to want to avoid the outright killing of a wolf, even if it's a rival, because he needs as much time as he can get. But when Jackal has the normal kill - one that doesn't even assure us of a death - he thinks that Jackal should use it. Why the change of heart about using the kill? And why the unwillingness to believe that Path's actions did cause the situation we were in? I mentioned it a couple of times. Coffee was adamant that there was no way Jackal, Chief, himself and I could be wolves because we the wolves didn't have two bids. He tries to spin this by saying that Path was effectively a cunning wolf but that wasn't the gist of his argument at the time. The gist was that we shouldn't even consider us four. Which he'll have to accept, was wrong.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 04:29 AM

So on to the vagueness about his bids and bets. Meaning that we really don't know whether $300 is a reasonable bet for him to make. It would help a lot if we knew exactly how much money he had/was claiming to have, to judge how likely a $300 bet was from him.

Yesterday he was starting to push me as a candidate and felt the need to start mocking me. Until I pointed out that logically-speaking the chances of me being a wolf were very slim. After that he disappeared. That's happened to me before when a wolf is confronted with info they don't like. And despite the fact that, by his own logic, the chances of me being a wolf were astronomically small, he went ahead and scanned me.

Fair enough, I asked to be scanned. But judging by this

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

And we have to pick right today, because we've got to assume the NK is going to the wolves.

it looks like he didn't actually read all my post. So I don't even know if he read that someone should scan me.

So if you are a villager Coffee, I hope you can see that your actions are contributing to me voting you.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 04:58 AM

I don't know Coffee is a wolf. I wish I could just have the strength of my convictions because they're screaming that he's a wolf. Jackal I need a calm, rational perspective. Again.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 06:30 AM

Regardless of what hoppens it's vital that villagers bid on Cookies Ladies today. If we lynch a villager today our only chance is blocking the kill. The last villager knows who the wolf is assuming I'm not a cunning or a rival wolf with Coffee. So if the game is still on after this lynch you have to send Cookies to the other guy.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 06:31 AM

And you have to bid before we know the result.

The Jackal · 05-06-2013, 06:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

This is end game. I hope you're not locked into this, because if you are, we very well could lose.

Any specific reason you went with me and not CW? Is it really because you couldn't confirm my BG use while CW has been confirmed for sending the ladies? Keep in mind, no one else claimed the BG role that day, even though I said I had it and used it.

Not locked in, catching up.

The Jackal · 05-06-2013, 06:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Any specific reason you went with me and not CW? Is it really because you couldn't confirm my BG use while CW has been confirmed for sending the ladies? Keep in mind, no one else claimed the BG role that day, even though I said I had it and used it.

Path had to have been used for one of those bids - all I'm saying is that I know I got a message from Narc, and I don't see why villager mau would lie about the ladies. That doesn't mean that CW was the one that sent the ladies, just saying the BG use can't be proven.

The Jackal · 05-06-2013, 06:46 AM

I've got nothing solid on CR, and I want to be aligned on this. Having the potential of the ladies in our pocket tonight if we lynch a villager is a bonus.

unvote CR

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Path had to have been used for one of those bids - all I'm saying is that I know I got a message from Narc, and I don't see why villager mau would lie about the ladies. That doesn't mean that CW was the one that sent the ladies, just saying the BG use can't be proven.

Funny. I've ben going under the assumption that Path sent the killer - I guess it doesn't matter in the end.

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'm going to be voting Coffee - I strongly suggest you do likewise Jackal. If CW is a villager then it's vital that whoever the other villager is bids on Cookies Ladies and sends them to the other person.

Coffee if you are a villager and after you've finished slagging me off it would be very helpful if you say who you think the wolf is. If you want to win and we can block the night kill I'll have to decide who the wolf is. Chief, if you think there's a better case to be made against Jackal I'd like you to say it today rather than tomorrow.

I'll run through my reasoning again sometime during my day because whether Coffee is wolf or villager he deserves that from me after what must have been a tough game for him (particularly if he's a wolf).

Narc, I'm gonna put this very simply. If you vote me, and we don't get the NK, we lose. End of story. In the word of Apollo Creed, there ain't no tomorrow.

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 08:09 AM

I suppose you can pray to rely on the ladies, but that's rather dangerous.

I suppose you can try and bid on the NK, but we've already seen one person get turned because of it, and I dunno about you, but I'm broke. Also dangerous.

It ain't me, it never was, it still ain't me. You're the only one I've personally scanned, and therefore I have to put my faith in you. Don't fuck this up.

And I frankly could make a case for either Jackal or CR.

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 08:16 AM

If we wanna play this as safe as we can...

Narc, I suggest you bid on the ladies today.

Whoever the other villager is, buy the bodyguard. I shoulda kept a dollar, but I didn't, so I'm screwed today for bids.

If you lynch me, you lynch a villager, and it's still between Jackal and CR, but you'll have a shot.

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 08:18 AM

So I guess it's not an insta we lose if you off me today, but I'm still not a wolf. So there.

Chief Rum · 05-06-2013, 10:55 AM

The Jackal, you have been looking at the No Lynch possibility for today. Could you spell out your concept there abit? Not saying I would support it, but it might be worth it to keep the option on the table.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Whoever the other villager is, buy the bodyguard. I shoulda kept a dollar, but I didn't, so I'm screwed today for bids.

You didn't bet on Path being lynched?

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 11:09 AM

How much did you win on Brit Coffee?

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

You didn't bet on Path being lynched?

No, thanks to being arrogant and lazy, I figured we had it, and didn't bet on anyone.

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

How much did you win on Brit Coffee?

A whopping 18 bucks.

Chief Rum · 05-06-2013, 11:20 AM

In the interest of full disclosure, I got $675 from winning the path bet.

So I now have $1285.

Darth Vilus · 05-06-2013, 12:04 PM

I sincerely apologize for my absence, I've had Internet issues. Very sorry guys

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I really wish I could just lynch you today, Narc. But I'd be going against my own line of thinking.

Bets:
D0 DaddyTorgo
D1 DT & JAG
D2 Brit & Jackal
D3 DT & Brit
D4 Brit & Murray
D5 Murray
D6 Brit & CR
D7 Mau & Path

Bids
D1 Seer (307)
D2 Casino Manager (51)
D3 Friends for Life (201)
D4 Hitman (1000)
D5 Casino Manager (273)
D6 Seer (273)
D7 Ladies (1)

I can't make the numbers add up. According to you, you've spent $1,301 but you only appear to have won $291. You yourself have said that you've won under $300 in post 1380

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I've won exactly 2 bets. And made just under 300 bucks total from them. Financial mogul I am not.

You can't have made the bid on the seer, unless you've been lying somewhere. Can't believe I haven't even checked this before now.

Vote Coffee Warlord

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 01:15 PM

D4: DT - $273 (Both Path and I had DT in a two-way bet and made 273).
D7: Brit - $18 (you said yourself, agrees with what Path says)

= $291

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I can't make the numbers add up. According to you, you've spent $1,301 but you only appear to have won $291. You yourself have said that you've won under $300 in post 1380

You can't have made the bid on the seer, unless you've been lying somewhere. Can't believe I haven't even checked this before now.

Vote Coffee Warlord

Lemme ask Autumn then. I sent a PM saying bid everything I had on the seer. I was told it was 300.

Chief Rum · 05-06-2013, 01:28 PM

I think it's fairly obvious where my vote has to go if we don't do a No Lynch.

VOTE COFFEE WARLORD

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Lemme ask Autumn then. I sent a PM saying bid everything I had on the seer. I was told it was 300.

Yeah but you'd already posted that you had less than 300 only a couple of days ago. Are you saying you didn't notice?

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 01:31 PM

Didn't even think about it, quite frankly.

You're not gonna believe me, so whatever, but that's the deal.

The Jackal · 05-06-2013, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

The Jackal, you have been looking at the No Lynch possibility for today. Could you spell out your concept there abit? Not saying I would support it, but it might be worth it to keep the option on the table.

Narc floated it first - the thought was that with one more person offed it would narrow the pool to choose from for a lynch the next day, or would give us the chance at a seer scan in tandem with a cookie or BG hit. If there are three villagers left we could win three bids as long as no one is broke, but in this case we'd need to keep who won the seer silent as opposed to that other day.

At this point I know I'm not mafia and CW cleared Narc (whatever CW is, this is a clear), so if we end up lynching either you or CW, I'm hoping for the fallback of cookie on the other.

The Jackal · 05-06-2013, 01:34 PM

Vote CW

The Jackal · 05-06-2013, 01:34 PM

I'm willing to listen if you can give me good reason to switch to CR, but this is looking like the safer bet at the moment.

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 01:34 PM

Just fucking nightfall it.

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 01:36 PM

Ain't a god damn thing I can say that's gonna change Narc's mind, even if I *can* get a clarification on the math, and I'm sick of saying the same shit over and over.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 01:37 PM

Fair enough.

Villagers should still bid on Cookies Ladies. Just in case there are two wolves or something. I'll nightfall last because I'm paranoid.

The Jackal · 05-06-2013, 01:39 PM

I'm going to the Rangers/Caps tonight but I do have my bid in

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Ain't a god damn thing I can say that's gonna change Narc's mind, even if I *can* get a clarification on the math, and I'm sick of saying the same shit over and over.

Hold up! You're caught with your hand in the cookie jar and I'm the one that's at fault?

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 01:39 PM

There's one wolf and it ain't me. If by some miracle, you choose wisely...

Vote Chief Rum

I'll nightfall it if everyone else does.

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Hold up! You're caught with your hand in the cookie jar and I'm the one that's at fault?

I'm trying to stay calm here, and failing. Which is why I'm walking away from this right now. I don't get pissed in WW games, and I am now.

I. Bid. What. I. Was. Told. I. Had.

Autumn · 05-06-2013, 02:21 PM

Hold the phones!

There is a bank error that is not in Coffee Warlord's favor.

I told him the wrong amount of money in PM, telling him he had $10 more than he should have.

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

D4: DT - $273 (Both Path and I had DT in a two-way bet and made 273).
D7: Brit - $18 (you said yourself, agrees with what Path says)

= $291

And now that I'm NOT wanting to claw someone's face off. (Of which I apologize for - kid has prevented me from sleeping the last several days, so I'm rather short-tempered right now. Shouldn't let that seep into a game.)

Subtract the 1 buck for the ladies bid that I won, and there you go.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 02:42 PM

You're joking! I don't know what to do with that. I was going to vote Coffee before I saw the discrepency. It doesn't seem fair to the wolf to switch the vote and I've got no time to think about what it means. Doesn't that as good as clear him?

Coffee Warlord · 05-06-2013, 02:47 PM

You keep saying I'm a wolf even BEFORE any of this came out. It changes nothing, on one hand.

On the other hand, I see exactly where you're going with it, and I frankly was curious how it was gonna be dealt with, for this very reason.

Narcizo · 05-06-2013, 02:47 PM

I'm sorry Coffee but I don't think it would be fair to switch my vote. I was going to vote you - this would be letting Autumn's mistake unfairly punish the wolf.

05-06-2013, 10:55 AM	#1573
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	The Jackal, you have been looking at the No Lynch possibility for today. Could you spell out your concept there abit? Not saying I would support it, but it might be worth it to keep the option on the table. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

05-06-2013, 11:20 AM	#1578
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	In the interest of full disclosure, I got $675 from winning the path bet. So I now have $1285. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

05-06-2013, 12:04 PM	#1579
Darth Vilus College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SoCal	I sincerely apologize for my absence, I've had Internet issues. Very sorry guys __________________ "Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise

05-06-2013, 01:28 PM	#1583
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	I think it's fairly obvious where my vote has to go if we don't do a No Lynch. VOTE COFFEE WARLORD __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

05-05-2013, 10:09 PM	#1551
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Day 10 Voting 1 Chief Rum ---------- The Jackal (1550)

05-06-2013, 01:18 AM	#1553
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	I'm going to be voting Coffee - I strongly suggest you do likewise Jackal. If CW is a villager then it's vital that whoever the other villager is bids on Cookies Ladies and sends them to the other person. Coffee if you are a villager and after you've finished slagging me off it would be very helpful if you say who you think the wolf is. If you want to win and we can block the night kill I'll have to decide who the wolf is. Chief, if you think there's a better case to be made against Jackal I'd like you to say it today rather than tomorrow. I'll run through my reasoning again sometime during my day because whether Coffee is wolf or villager he deserves that from me after what must have been a tough game for him (particularly if he's a wolf).

05-06-2013, 01:50 AM	#1554
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Jackal, obviously we need to agree on our candidate for today. My gut is telling me that Coffee is the most likliest to be a wolf but I trust my gut as far as I can throw it, at the moment. I think we should be able to get two votes in but I can't be sure of that so I want to be as certain as possible of getting the right guy today, if nothing else, then to avoid having to do all this again tomorrow.

05-06-2013, 02:29 AM	#1555
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	The main thing that has changed from yesterday is that I'm a lot less sure about Coffee being a wolf because of his seer-claim and clearing me. Obviously that's a big plus in his favour. If we agree that the double-bid thing was the result of using a bid though Path then there's no way he could get the seer and the hitman. So he must be clear along with me and we should lynch Chief and then, if we get the chance, you tomorrow. One obvious possibility is that he's on the level and we should lynch Chief and you. The other possibility is that he read my post and plan yesterday(it seems like he's the only one who actually did ) and was left with a dilemma. Let's say he's a wolf. He reads my plan which will result in him being lynched today. What options does he have. 1) Kill me. But then he's got to worry that you guys will follow my plan anyway AND worry that Chief or mau didn't do as I asked and actually scanned someone else. 2) Try to kill the seer bidder. He has a 50/50 chance unless Jackal or I have lied about our money. In this hypothetical situation, he presumably knows I haven't lied and can do the maths so he knows Jackal hasn't lied so that leaves Chief and mau. But he can't afford killing Chief because he's the main rival to a lynch. So he has to gut it out, kill mau and claim to have got the seer as quickly as possible. So what does he do with the fake seer-claim? a) Claim someone's a wolf? Even if he is believed then, if we can block the night kill in the way I planned, then he'll be lynched tomorrow. b) Clear someone? Nobody is going to buy him scanning Jackal, although that would have been his ideal candidate. Now this is where the doubt creeps into my mind. I think his best play would be to clear Chief. It's the most likely scan target. I'm probably not going to believe him but that can be spun as me being a wolf trying to wriggle out of a lynch. Maybe he figures I'll sacrifice myself, offer to be lynched and tell people to vote him tomorrow (correctly as it happens). Anyway in hypothetical wolf-Coffee's place having read my plan I think that this is what I would have done. My mind is a torturous place though. The other option is that the lone wolf is able to make more than one bid. Then it's much easier for Coffee to pull this off. I think he argued that he would have made multiple bids in that case. But if he did he would be setting out a sign saying "Hey guys, you probably shouldn't vote DV or Path because the wolf can make multiple bids after all." So that argument doesn't hold. So, what I get from this is that Coffee claiming the seer and clearing me gives him a decent plus in my trust list. I just don't think it's enough to make up for the positives with Jackal and Chief, but it makes it a lot tougher for me.

05-06-2013, 02:59 AM	#1557
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	So with that said we should be alright, as long as the prostitute plan works. We lynch Coffee/Chief today and then lynch the other one tomorrow. But we can't be sure that the plan will work so we ought to lynch the most likliest target.

05-06-2013, 03:59 AM	#1558
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Chief - hasn't been around much which makes it harder to read him. I seem to remember that wolf-Chief is less active than villager-Chief, but I don't remember ever playing in a game where he's a wolf so that would be a pretty hazy memory anyway. For me the main thing in Chief's favour is the JAG clearance on day one. Yes, we all say "but remember he could be a wolf buying trust" but 9 times out of 10 it's what it seems to be. A villager clearing another villager. Is a wolf really going to clear one of the best villagers in the game when he, with great luck for the wolves, happened to have been in the middle of a lynch vote? He could, at least, clear someone a bit less useful to the village. Yes, I understand that by picking JAG he made his case stronger but is it really worth the money and the potential trouble JAG can cause just to get some trust longer down the line? When he, presumably, doesn't even know that JAG is a villager? For all wolf-Chief knows he's giving himself away by clearing a possible wolf. That makes no sense whatsoever. Chief isn't that stupid. And we do know that the same wolf team DID try the same trick the next day. Like I said before, is the same team going to go to the well on the very next day? Zinto took a risk clearing Jackal but you can see a big difference in the choice of candidate. Zinto picked someone he thought was very likely to be a villager. He was taking a risk because Jackal could have been Atlantic City and buying trust by announcing his kill target. But I think Zinto thought the same as me, that wolf-JAckal would target someone other than fontisian on night one. Zinto's play strikes vaguely of desperation. But yes, maybe he was actually counting on being discovered and that people would then immediately presume that Chief's must be on the level. Except there's still the chance that people will think that Chief is Atlantic City. Chief's voting record isn't fantastic but who's is? Most of the wolf lynches in this game have been slam-dunks up until Path got turned. I just don't think that Chief takes the numerous risks involved in clearing JAG on day one and then allows Zinto to try the same stunt with Jackal the next day.

05-06-2013, 04:01 AM	#1559
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Actually thinking about it - Zinto clearing Jackal is a negative for Jackal. Zinto can't have been sure that Jackal was villager so it was a big, big risk. Meh!

05-06-2013, 04:16 AM	#1560
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	So Coffee. The case against him isn't great objectively speaking, just better than the cases against Chief and Jackal. Stick DV against him and I vote DV every time, for example - as I proved. There's last night scan that I admit is a positive for him - just not as big a positive as he'd have liked. And there's the announcement that he got the kill he used on murra5y. That's a positive, although less of one as murra5y was on the opposing side. But I think there are discrepencies in his arguments and actions. For instance he said that he didn't think Path should use his kill on murra5y. I've got to give him credit for that - he was right. in retrospect using the kill really hurt the village. Were he a wolf he wouldn't actually know how much he would gain by Path using the kill though. And, obviously, as a wolf he's going to want to avoid the outright killing of a wolf, even if it's a rival, because he needs as much time as he can get. But when Jackal has the normal kill - one that doesn't even assure us of a death - he thinks that Jackal should use it. Why the change of heart about using the kill? And why the unwillingness to believe that Path's actions did cause the situation we were in? I mentioned it a couple of times. Coffee was adamant that there was no way Jackal, Chief, himself and I could be wolves because we the wolves didn't have two bids. He tries to spin this by saying that Path was effectively a cunning wolf but that wasn't the gist of his argument at the time. The gist was that we shouldn't even consider us four. Which he'll have to accept, was wrong.

05-06-2013, 04:58 AM	#1562
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	I don't know Coffee is a wolf. I wish I could just have the strength of my convictions because they're screaming that he's a wolf. Jackal I need a calm, rational perspective. Again.

05-06-2013, 06:30 AM	#1563
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Regardless of what hoppens it's vital that villagers bid on Cookies Ladies today. If we lynch a villager today our only chance is blocking the kill. The last villager knows who the wolf is assuming I'm not a cunning or a rival wolf with Coffee. So if the game is still on after this lynch you have to send Cookies to the other guy.

05-06-2013, 06:31 AM	#1564
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	And you have to bid before we know the result.

05-06-2013, 06:46 AM	#1567
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I've got nothing solid on CR, and I want to be aligned on this. Having the potential of the ladies in our pocket tonight if we lynch a villager is a bonus. unvote CR

05-06-2013, 08:09 AM	#1570
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	I suppose you can pray to rely on the ladies, but that's rather dangerous. I suppose you can try and bid on the NK, but we've already seen one person get turned because of it, and I dunno about you, but I'm broke. Also dangerous. It ain't me, it never was, it still ain't me. You're the only one I've personally scanned, and therefore I have to put my faith in you. Don't fuck this up. And I frankly could make a case for either Jackal or CR.

05-06-2013, 08:16 AM	#1571
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	If we wanna play this as safe as we can... Narc, I suggest you bid on the ladies today. Whoever the other villager is, buy the bodyguard. I shoulda kept a dollar, but I didn't, so I'm screwed today for bids. If you lynch me, you lynch a villager, and it's still between Jackal and CR, but you'll have a shot.

05-06-2013, 08:18 AM	#1572
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	So I guess it's not an insta we lose if you off me today, but I'm still not a wolf. So there.

05-06-2013, 11:09 AM	#1575
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	How much did you win on Brit Coffee?

05-06-2013, 01:15 PM	#1581
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	D4: DT - $273 (Both Path and I had DT in a two-way bet and made 273). D7: Brit - $18 (you said yourself, agrees with what Path says) = $291

05-06-2013, 01:31 PM	#1585
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	Didn't even think about it, quite frankly. You're not gonna believe me, so whatever, but that's the deal.

05-06-2013, 01:34 PM	#1587
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Vote CW

05-06-2013, 01:34 PM	#1588
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'm willing to listen if you can give me good reason to switch to CR, but this is looking like the safer bet at the moment.

05-06-2013, 01:34 PM	#1589
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	Just fucking nightfall it.

05-06-2013, 01:36 PM	#1590
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	Ain't a god damn thing I can say that's gonna change Narc's mind, even if I can get a clarification on the math, and I'm sick of saying the same shit over and over.

05-06-2013, 01:37 PM	#1591
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Fair enough. Villagers should still bid on Cookies Ladies. Just in case there are two wolves or something. I'll nightfall last because I'm paranoid.

05-06-2013, 01:39 PM	#1592
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'm going to the Rangers/Caps tonight but I do have my bid in

05-06-2013, 01:39 PM	#1594
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	There's one wolf and it ain't me. If by some miracle, you choose wisely... Vote Chief Rum I'll nightfall it if everyone else does.

05-06-2013, 02:21 PM	#1596
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Hold the phones! There is a bank error that is not in Coffee Warlord's favor. I told him the wrong amount of money in PM, telling him he had $10 more than he should have.

05-06-2013, 02:42 PM	#1598
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	You're joking! I don't know what to do with that. I was going to vote Coffee before I saw the discrepency. It doesn't seem fair to the wolf to switch the vote and I've got no time to think about what it means. Doesn't that as good as clear him?

05-06-2013, 02:47 PM	#1599
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	You keep saying I'm a wolf even BEFORE any of this came out. It changes nothing, on one hand. On the other hand, I see exactly where you're going with it, and I frankly was curious how it was gonna be dealt with, for this very reason.

05-06-2013, 02:47 PM	#1600
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	I'm sorry Coffee but I don't think it would be fair to switch my vote. I was going to vote you - this would be letting Autumn's mistake unfairly punish the wolf.

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