I don't care if JaMarcus Russell signs

[Richard Weed]

I really don't care if JaMarcus Russell signs a contract. At this point, he's really pissing me off. The Raiders don't need him on their roster at this point in the season and even if he did, he wouldn't add much to the team this year. The QB situation is still horrible with a gimp, sackaholic, and a guy who was let go by two teams as the options.

Tom Brady, winner of three Super Bowls, signed a six-year contract for $60 million, $31.5 million guaranteed, in 2005. Granted, that was before the Pats won their third Super Bowl, but he was still a two time winner and a proven veteran. Oakland has offered a six-year contract for $60 million, $30-32 million guaranteed, and he hasn't accepted. BTW, that is an appropriate increase from Mario Williams' deal last year with the Texans.

So how does a guy who has never played a down in the NFL get a contract higher than a proven veteran who has won the big game? Rookie contracts really are out of hand and it's ridiculous that this guy won't sign. I hope he never does and gets drafted on the second day next year. Bah.

[Lathum]

They should have taken Quinn.

How horrible is an organization when they take a guy first overall without a contract already in place.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I'm just glad that the Raiders continue to allow the Chiefs to have two automatic wins on the schedule every year. Ditto for the Broncos and Chargers.

It's extremely frustrating how far the Raiders have fallen. It's honestly not nearly as much fun to watch the Chiefs beat the Raiders anymore. They don't even put up a fight.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Mark my words: The Raiders will start the season 1-0.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Mark my words: The Raiders will start the season 1-0.

i hope so. this forum needs more raiders threads started by JBmagic

[albionmoonlight]

From a totally selfish fan point of view, I hope that he does not sign because that might spark some efforts to fix the way that the NFL does rookie signings.

[oykib]

Originally Posted by Richard Weed

Tom Brady, winner of three Super Bowls, signed a six-year contract for $60 million, $31.5 million guaranteed, in 2005. Granted, that was before the Pats won their third Super Bowl, but he was still a two time winner and a proven veteran. Oakland has offered a six-year contract for $60 million, $30-32 million guaranteed, and he hasn't accepted. BTW, that is an appropriate increase from Mario Williams' deal last year with the Texans.

1. There has been a massive increase i the cap since 2005. So as a percentage of the cap, Brady's contract is still more impressive.

2. QBs always get a bump, both in overall numbers and guaranteed money, over their slot relative to other positions.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

From a totally selfish fan point of view, I hope that he does not sign because that might spark some efforts to fix the way that the NFL does rookie signings.

Agreed. It would be really cool for them to say "Screw you, go back in the draft next year and get drafted much lower with your one year of inactivity." I mean, the organization is fucked up enough...can't they take one for all of us?

[Richard Weed]

Originally Posted by oykib

1. There has been a massive increase i the cap since 2005. So as a percentage of the cap, Brady's contract is still more impressive.

2. QBs always get a bump, both in overall numbers and guaranteed money, over their slot relative to other positions.

Very true on both points. Regardless, isn't it ludicrous to pay a rookie QB even 75% the money of a proven winner?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Richard Weed

Very true on both points. Regardless, isn't it ludicrous to pay a rookie QB even 75% the money of a proven winner?

yes. especially when it then forces owners to demand that they start / rushes their development so the vast majority of them don't pan out and the owners are left cutting them (thank god for ungaurenteed contracts) and then going back and starting from square-1 again and again.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Logan

Agreed. It would be really cool for them to say "Screw you, go back in the draft next year and get drafted much lower with your one year of inactivity." I mean, the organization is fucked up enough...can't they take one for all of us?

Baseball did a great job with their 'suggested contracts' this year. They had 14 players unsigned from the 1st round going into the last day, but all 14 signed and most were near their suggested contract. Nice to see them force the hand of the agents a bit. At the end of the day, most of those kids signed because they realized that signing a contract for a million dollars isn't so bad after all and they knew they may not have another chance to get that money.

Also, the teams were guaranteed a draft pick of equal value in next year's draft, so there was no big rush for the teams to give in to agent demands. It was definitely a big win for MLB.

[albionmoonlight]

Thumbnail of my solution:

Slot rookie contracts a 'la the NBA.

Keep the money pretty good for rookies, but less than it is now. Also slot the money down the scale a bit, so that it is not so top-five heavy. Let all of the players drafted in the top four rounds share some of the sugar that has been way too slanted to top-five picks. This will also increase the value of top picks because their contracts won't be as cap crippling as they would otherwise.

Use the money that you save for rookies and either use it to increase the cap for veterans or increase the players pension, or basically ask the union what they would like. If the rookie money saved ends up going to the players instead of in the owners' pockets, then the proposal has a chance in heck of getting passed in the CBA.

The devil is in the details, but that proposal seems better than what we have now.

[gstelmack]

I think this is simply a case of Russell not wanting to play for Oakland.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I think this is simply a case of Russell not wanting to play for Oakland.

Would you?

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I think this is simply a case of Russell not wanting to play for Oakland.

The longer this goes on, the more I agree with you. The guy realizes that he isn't going to be good in Oakland so he is trying to make his money now. If he goes back in the draft and is a mid-1st round pick, no big deal because he probably has more success with that team.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Would you?

YES! I'd be rich, bitch.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Baseball did a great job with their 'suggested contracts' this year. They had 14 players unsigned from the 1st round going into the last day, but all 14 signed and most were near their suggested contract. Nice to see them force the hand of the agents a bit. At the end of the day, most of those kids signed because they realized that signing a contract for a million dollars isn't so bad after all and they knew they may not have another chance to get that money.

Also, the teams were guaranteed a draft pick of equal value in next year's draft, so there was no big rush for the teams to give in to agent demands. It was definitely a big win for MLB.

Baseball can get away with that because of the anti-trust exemption. I don't think the NFL could suggest rookie contracts without ending up in court. They'll have to bargain it with the NFLPA, which, honestly, shouldn't be that difficult given the way Upshaw rolls over when negotiating.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Richard Weed

Very true on both points. Regardless, isn't it ludicrous to pay a rookie QB even 75% the money of a proven winner?

This is irrelevant to the discussion. The Raiders knew how much (or around how much) they'd be paying to the top overall pick in the draft. They could have moved down in the first round. They could have moved out of the first round. They made the decision to pick him and pay him. There were ample chances for them to take a QB in the 6th round and hope he turned into Tom Brady.

The relevant part of the discussion is this:

1) Despite being the only team that could negotiate a contract before the draft with their pick, the Raiders didn't get an agreement in place. That's beyond stupid.

2) They compounded this mistake by not doing whatever it took to get Russell into camp.

3) Now there is talk of Russell sitting out the season and never playing a down for the Raiders.

4) If they end up doing #3, they wasted an asset. Simply threw it down the toilet. That's not what good organizations do. I know, this is not an organization that is considered "good" by sane people now.

5) Russell is just as dumb. If he does sit out the year, it'll be tough for him to ever become a good NFL QB. Guys who sit out have a tough time coming back. He'll also lose millions upon millions of dollars.

Sounds like the two sides were pretty much made for each other. . .

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I think this is simply a case of Russell not wanting to play for Oakland.

Russel is refusing to sign because he feels that having his contract be performance/behavior modified is unfair.


IE, they want his salary to be dependant on playing time, etc. If he does something stupid (like pacman/vick) they want to be able to let him go with little cap implications. He is refusing to sign that, which is absurd, because almost all the contracts in the last 3 years have been that way. It really makes me think hes got some skeletons.

As to Anti-Trust exemptions, the NFL has just as many as the MLB, and can do pretty much whatever the hell it wants with rookie salaries.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Synovia

As to Anti-Trust exemptions, the NFL has just as many as the MLB, and can do pretty much whatever the hell it wants with rookie salaries.

From an antitrust perspective, it's not so much any special exemption for the NFL, as it is the fact that most of everything involved is agreed to pursuant to collective bargaining agreement.

[ShaneTheMaster]

If you have ever seen him throw a football, you want him to sign. By far, he has more talent than Brady Quinn. He may take a little more time to develop than Quinn, but I think he will be a great NFL QB. The NFL should really have hard fixed salaries for the rookies.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Synovia

Russel is refusing to sign because he feels that having his contract be performance/behavior modified is unfair.


IE, they want his salary to be dependant on playing time, etc. If he does something stupid (like pacman/vick) they want to be able to let him go with little cap implications. He is refusing to sign that, which is absurd, because almost all the contracts in the last 3 years have been that way. It really makes me think hes got some skeletons.

As to Anti-Trust exemptions, the NFL has just as many as the MLB, and can do pretty much whatever the hell it wants with rookie salaries.

I think from his perspective and his agent's perspective, it's unprecedented, it's unfair and not something that they ought to be demanding out of a pick as high as he was. And so, if they think they can win without him, they ought to. But every day they wait, is the diminished return on his value they get and so, they're being kinda silly. He'll play somewhere sooner than later and given that Quinn could hold out and still do pretty well in the pre-season and the fact that the kids sit for years without playing often times anyway, I don't think being in camp with Boy Wonder the coach and the dysfunctional Raiders was going to demonstrably help his career.

And if Randy Moss redeems himself a la Corey Dillon in New England, it'll just bolster JaMarcus Russell's case to never play there at all.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by ShaneTheMaster

If you have ever seen him throw a football, you want him to sign.

PING: Jeff George

[JediKooter]

I don't think Al Davis was expecting him to drop all the way down to the number 1 slot in the draft and didn't realize they had a chance to get Russell. So they rushed the contract and now it's all this...

[MikeVic]

Maybe this means they really wanted to take Calvin Johnson and balked at the idea too late to get something solid with JaMarcus worked out.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by ShaneTheMaster

If you have ever seen him throw a football, you want him to sign. By far, he has more talent than Brady Quinn. He may take a little more time to develop than Quinn, but I think he will be a great NFL QB. The NFL should really have hard fixed salaries for the rookies.

Disagree. His delivery is slow as hell and he is not that athletic. He has a rocket arm. That's going to translate into an average QB at best. He was the #1 pick because people fell in love with him after he torched a horrific ND secondary in the bowl game.

I think he'll be a decent, not great NFL QB. I think Quinn will be an above average NFL QB, but not great either. I have a feeling that Kolb will be the best QB from this class.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Synovia

Russel is refusing to sign because he feels that having his contract be performance/behavior modified is unfair.


IE, they want his salary to be dependant on playing time, etc. If he does something stupid (like pacman/vick) they want to be able to let him go with little cap implications. He is refusing to sign that, which is absurd, because almost all the contracts in the last 3 years have been that way. It really makes me think hes got some skeletons.

As to Anti-Trust exemptions, the NFL has just as many as the MLB, and can do pretty much whatever the hell it wants with rookie salaries.

Why would the agents have a problem with the behavior clause if it is a standard practice for all contracts? If everyone has sign them the last three years, I would assume that everyone will be signing them next year and from now on given the Vick case. That includes JaMarcus Russell next year if he does re-enters the draft.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Disagree. His delivery is slow as hell and he is not that athletic. He has a rocket arm. That's going to translate into an average QB at best. He was the #1 pick because people fell in love with him after he torched a horrific ND secondary in the bowl game.

I think he'll be a decent, not great NFL QB. I think Quinn will be an above average NFL QB, but not great either. I have a feeling that Kolb will be the best QB from this class.

Russell has all the makings of a classic QB bust.

1) Small number of starts
2) Great "physical potential"
3) Surrounded by multiple first round picks
4) questionable decision making
5) Questionable accuracy.

Russel was barely the starter his senior year. That doesnt bode well for him as a pro. Plenty of guys have "laser rocket arms." Most of them dont make good QBs. Theres plenty of probowlers who dont have the Arm that even Brady Quinn has.

Quinn projects as being good. Couple of prowbowls, etc. IE, Eli good. Kolb projects to being the best QB to come out of this draft, surprisingly followed by Beck, althougth I dont know how much I trust the projection for Beck. I have a feeling hes further on in his developemental curve than the other guys.


Honestly, IIRC, Kolb has the best projection since Phillip Rivers, who has a slightly better projection than Peyton Manning had (although Manning exceeded his projection...just as Rivers is doing)

Why would the agents have a problem with the behavior clause if it is a standard practice for all contracts?

My only thought about that is they have reason to believe that Jamarcus is going to violate one of those clauses.

[dime]

I like John Beck, myself.

I never got the fuss over Russell, really...he reminds me more of Jay Schroeder than a franchise QB. I've just seen him make too many terrible decisions/throws to think that he is the best guy in the draft.

[stevew]

like Troy said, drafting #1 and then not having a deal worked out is beyond stupid. There were 4-5 guys in this draft(Russel, Quinn, Johnson, Thomas, maybe even Petersen) that the Raiders could use and could have easily have gone #1. To not get one of them signed pre-draft is truly Raiders-esque.

[Tigercat]

Originally Posted by Synovia

Russell has all the makings of a classic QB bust.

1) Small number of starts
2) Great "physical potential"
3) Surrounded by multiple first round picks
4) questionable decision making
5) Questionable accuracy.

1 - He started around 25 games in his career, thats above average
2 - How about physical reality? see the following:
3 - Yes
4 - His QB rating was amongst the NCAA's best(2nd if I remember correctly), and he engineered more 4th quarter comebacks than any QB in LSU history
5 - He completed 67.8%(!) of his passes his last year

He may not end up being all that and a bag of chips in the NFL. But Russell got the job done in the win column and in the stat column in college and he has the skills to project in the pros. What more can one legitimately ask for him as a QB prospect?

Its like people expect him to bust not because of actual indicators, but because he is a big strong armed QB who the public didn't know enough about before his last year at LSU. (Which is a ridiculous reason to assume that hes all physical talent and bust-worthy. Playing right into the media's hands...)

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Synovia

Kolb projects to being the best QB to come out of this draft, surprisingly followed by Beck, althougth I dont know how much I trust the projection for Beck.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but when was the last time a Conference USA quarterback was as good as advertised in the NFL?

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

1 - He started around 25 games in his career, thats above average
2 - How about physical reality? see the following:
3 - Yes
4 - His QB rating was amongst the NCAA's best(2nd if I remember correctly), and he engineered more 4th quarter comebacks than any QB in LSU history
5 - He completed 67.8%(!) of his passes his last year

He may not end up being all that and a bag of chips in the NFL. But Russell got the job done in the win column and in the stat column in college and he has the skills to project in the pros. What more can one legitimately ask for him as a QB prospect?

Its like people expect him to bust not because of actual indicators, but because he is a big strong armed QB who the public didn't know enough about before his last year at LSU. (Which is a ridiculous reason to assume that hes all physical talent and bust-worthy. Playing right into the media's hands...)

Synovia is getting his info from the Pro Football Prospectus. (I made some of my decisions from that too, thought I really liked Kolb a lot to begin with) NOTE: This is a MUST get book if you love football. Seriously, just buy it.

Some of your points:

1) 29 college starts is NOT above average for top 3 round NFL QB prospect. It's below average. Looking at the guys around him this year, you have Quinn (46), Kolb (50), Beck (38) and Stanton (29). Stanton would have played far more had it not been for injury.

2) He does have great physical potential, but his mental ability was questioned by plenty of LSU fans over the last couple of seasons. Against the 3 best defenses he saw last year (Auburn, Tennessee and Florida) he threw 4TD and 6 INTand had a low QB rating in every one of those games.

3) The multiple picks thing is important here.

4) His QB rating was nice. 3rd in the country behind Brennan and Beck. Just ahead of Tyler Palko and Jared Zabransky. How good of pros do you think those two will be?

5) He completed a high percentage of his passes last year. But see #3. He had 2 NFL #1 picks at WR to throw the ball to. Not a lot of college QB's have that luxury.

As far as the rest, it's just my opinion. I didn't watch Russell last year and think I was watching greatness. I saw a guy who could simply throw rockets down the field when given time. Some of his passes got me out of my seat. Others shocked me in how poor the decision was. I think his release is slow, that he struggles against good defenses and any kind of pressure at all will cause horrific decisions on his part. I think he was a first round pick, but I don't think he was the best QB or the #1 overall player.

Now, he's helping my cause with the holdout. Very, very few guys have ever skipped a year of NFL football and been effective when they've came back. Some of them aren't even QB's. As a QB, he needs all the work he can get as quickly as he can get it. He's already down the road to being a bust before he even gets into camp.

[B & B]

Before the draft folks were calling him JaBustus. He's simply a rich mans J-Load (who has a better chance at starting sometime this year)

[Warhammer]

I agree with TroyF. He made terrible decisions repeatedly. He had some incredible talent around him and basically thrived with that talent.

You can argue that his decision making during the Florida game cost them the game. While Quinn had some issues as well, he made good decisions for the most part. I think Quinn is going to be a far better NFL QB than Russell.

[st.cronin]

Russell in college reminded me of those two MAC qbs, Leftwich and Roethlisberger, only obviously bigger, stronger, and better. I think he could be a good pro ... if he ever signs, that is.

[Tigercat]

Originally Posted by TroyF

1) 29 college starts is NOT above average for top 3 round NFL QB prospect. It's below average. Looking at the guys around him this year, you have Quinn (46), Kolb (50), Beck (38) and Stanton (29). Stanton would have played far more had it not been for injury.

2) He does have great physical potential, but his mental ability was questioned by plenty of LSU fans over the last couple of seasons. Against the 3 best defenses he saw last year (Auburn, Tennessee and Florida) he threw 4TD and 6 INTand had a low QB rating in every one of those games.

3) The multiple picks thing is important here.

4) His QB rating was nice. 3rd in the country behind Brennan and Beck. Just ahead of Tyler Palko and Jared Zabransky. How good of pros do you think those two will be?

5) He completed a high percentage of his passes last year. But see #3. He had 2 NFL #1 picks at WR to throw the ball to. Not a lot of college QB's have that luxury.

The question is expectations. Do we expect a Junior QB making his 20something start to throw all TDs and no INTs on the road in the SEC? (Did you watch the Florida game? Every INT went through the WR's hands first.)
Do we expect a Junior QB to complete 80%(?!) of his passes just to prove he is great while surrounded by other first round picks?

I really don't understand what more legitimate expectations one could have had for Jamarcus on the field to prove he isn't bust-worthy.

Would Peyton Manning or Tom Brady been able to do better and complete 75+% of their passes as college junior QBs in the SEC? Would they have done any better on the road against Ds like Auburn and Florida? Manning consistently choked against Florida...

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

The question is expectations. Do we expect a Junior QB making his 20something start to throw all TDs and no INTs on the road in the SEC? (Did you watch the Florida game? Every INT went through the WR's hands first.)
Do we expect a Junior QB to complete 80%(?!) of his passes just to prove he is great while surrounded by other first round picks?

I really don't understand what more legitimate expectations one could have had for Jamarcus on the field to prove he isn't bust-worthy.

Would Peyton Manning or Tom Brady been able to do better and complete 75+% of their passes as college junior QBs in the SEC? Would they have done any better on the road against Ds like Auburn and Florida? Manning consistently choked against Florida...

If you'll notice, I haven't thrown a lot of stats out there in this. You are the one throwing all of the statistics at me. He had a good QB rating, he started more than average (which I showed to be wrong), he completed a high% of his passes, etc.

That's all very nice. I still think he sucks under pressure. I still don't like what I saw of him in terms of being an NFL prospect. Would I have expected Tyler Palko to have completed 95% of his passes? No. I don't hate Russell personally. I just think he was a horrible #1 pick and I think he's going to be a very average to below average NFL QB.

One last thing: The Manning "choke" jobs against Florida are a little overblown. In his career vs. Florida Manning had these numbers:

92-157 (59%)
1,196 yards
9 TD - 6 INT

Did he make big mistakes in those games? Sure. Not even up for debate. But as you are only using stats for the basis of your opinions, I think you've given me liberty to throw out stats as facts.

[RedKingGold]

my raiders looking good in preseason

What? Someone had to say it!

[Warhammer]

Also, let's not forget that Florida was at their peak while Manning was there. Wasn't 96 the year they won the national championship? I'm not saying that UT wasn't good, but I think the issues with Florida were more than just Manning.

The key here is that surrounded by premier talent, Russell put up good numbers. However, when he went up against teams with close to equivalent talent he struggled. Additionally, he did not make great decisions when under pressure.

I think a previous poster nailed the comparison. The guy is Jeff George all over. He has great measureables, but a lousy head. I might be wrong, but I don't think so.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

I think a previous poster nailed the comparison. The guy is Jeff George all over. He has great measureables, but a lousy head. I might be wrong, but I don't think so.

i mentioned Jeff George because someone mention how when you saw Jabustus in practice you wanted to sign him for your team. i immediatly thought of George because he had a rocket arm and could make amazing throws in practice also and coaches would drool all over themselves when watching him. of course they couldnt wait to cut him later that year

[astrosfan64]

Originally Posted by ShaneTheMaster

If you have ever seen him throw a football, you want him to sign. By far, he has more talent than Brady Quinn. He may take a little more time to develop than Quinn, but I think he will be a great NFL QB. The NFL should really have hard fixed salaries for the rookies.

Worst post ever.

Russell sucks.

[Tigercat]

My problem with the wave of "Russell-hate" is its all based on gut-instincts more than the "Russell-love." J-Russ is a legitimately good guy too, which will make it all the sweeter if/when he continues to improve his game(which he did every year at LSU) to where he is a good to great NFL QB. He has the physical talent and unlike Jeff George or Ryan Leaf, has shown the desire and ability to improve, bet against him at your own risk...

[SteelerFan448]

To borrow a line from Ghostbusters, "If someone offers you $30-32 million dollars guarenteed, you say yes!"

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

My problem with the wave of "Russell-hate" is its all based on gut-instincts more than the "Russell-love." J-Russ is a legitimately good guy too, which will make it all the sweeter if/when he continues to improve his game(which he did every year at LSU) to where he is a good to great NFL QB. He has the physical talent and unlike Jeff George or Ryan Leaf, has shown the desire and ability to improve, bet against him at your own risk...

Then why is he so afraid of a conduct clause in his contract?

[Tigercat]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

Then why is he so afraid of a conduct clause in his contract?

I don't know. No one knows for sure how much of the contract rumors are true. I could go into all kinds of stories of what J-Russ did for people after Katrina(stuff behind the scenes that has hardly been mentioned in papers or in the press, in addition to the stuff you can easily find on the web) but whats the point? That anyone would believe only the worst of contract negotiation rumors shows that so many of the public want to believe the worst about him now anyway.

There is plenty of evidence out there that hes a easy player to believe in and the type of guy that will better himself on and off the field. If someone wants to believe the worse in anyone they don't know because of an uninformed gut its hard to argue otherwise. I have little doubt that I will get to bump this thread and brag on his behalf one day though.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

I don't know. No one knows for sure how much of the contract rumors are true. I could go into all kinds of stories of what J-Russ did for people after Katrina(stuff behind the scenes that has hardly been mentioned in papers or in the press, in addition to the stuff you can easily find on the web) but whats the point? That anyone would believe only the worst of contract negotiation rumors shows that so many of the public want to believe the worst about him now anyway.

There is plenty of evidence out there that hes a easy player to believe in and the type of guy that will better himself on and off the field. If someone wants to believe the worse in anyone they don't know because of an uninformed gut its hard to argue otherwise. I have little doubt that I will get to bump this thread and brag on his behalf one day though.

I really just felt like making a snarky comment. I don't particularly care about Oakland, LSU, or Russell. When you start talking about teams on the east coast, wake me up.

[Pumpy Tudors]

EAST COAST BIAS

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

EAST COAST BIAS

As is the proper way of things. :P

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

My problem with the wave of "Russell-hate" is its all based on gut-instincts more than the "Russell-love." J-Russ is a legitimately good guy too, which will make it all the sweeter if/when he continues to improve his game(which he did every year at LSU) to where he is a good to great NFL QB. He has the physical talent and unlike Jeff George or Ryan Leaf, has shown the desire and ability to improve, bet against him at your own risk...

1) With all due respect, this is more than just "gut" instinct. It's my opinion based on watching him play. I'm not an NFL scout so I could be full of crap, but I don't like what I've seen.

2) Russell could be Mother Theresa, I'm not trying to debate his merit as a human. I'm sure he's a good guy. I know lots of good guys, that doesn't mean I think they'll succeed in the NFL.

3) I understand why #2 means we should wish he succeeds. I hope he does, even though he plays for the Raiders. (assuming he signs) Saying I think he's going to fail is far different from saying I hope he's going to fail. Again, this is not a discussion about being a special person, it's a discussion about him being a special QB.

4) No matter how good of a person OR QB he is, sitting out all of camp will stunt his development. Sitting out the full year is likely to make his career a washout. Guys just don't come back well after a full year away from the game. I'm not sure Russell will ever recover if he continues on his current path.