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Old 06-19-2006, 08:01 PM   #351
saldana
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49
Building off the reasons saldana just mentioned I think it more likely for their to be no EGs than 2.

huh (i think barkeep went to the schmidty school of WW (read: is drunk) )
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:01 PM   #352
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OK.

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Out until later. Your pharaoh thanks you.
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:01 PM   #353
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Dola. Crap, no bold:

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Old 06-19-2006, 08:02 PM   #354
saldana
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
My evil plan worked then, the plan to undermine barkeep at every corner
dola, i would be careful admitting to anything evil in the middle of day one voting
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:03 PM   #355
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saldana
huh (i think barkeep went to the schmidty school of WW (read: is drunk) )
If by drunk you mean bored at work ok.

I'm saying this:

Based on all the things you mentioned in your post, I think that it is more likely for their to be no EGs in the game then for there to be two EGs.

Something like this
60% - 1 EG
25% - 0 EG
15% - 2+ EGs
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:06 PM   #356
Abe Sargent
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan T
Anxiety, lets follow out your logic a little further here and look at all possible scenerios..

A - 1 Guard
B - 2 Guards
C - 0 Guards

Now A.1 - 1 guard and we do this strat. When they reveal themselves later on, we can verify they are telling the truth. Win for us

A.2 - If we do not do this strat, and they reveal later on, we have no way to be sure if they are still telling the truth or not... We will say this is a Draw

B.1 - Person reveals they are a guard, we do this strat, but they didnt end up being the guard who got the ordered. They end up not being trusted, and we lynch someone that hurts us. Loss for us

B.2 - Person reveals they are a guard, we do not do the strat, the other guard reveals they are the guard, so we end up in a trust war, where likely end up still lynching one of our two guards. Loss for us.

C.1 or C.2 its a draw either way since it does not end up impacting anything..

So in my mind, it only benefits us to go with barkeep's plan here. I can't see any downside from it that wouldn't already be there in the case of multiple guards and a reveal.


I woke up from a nap and read this and had to reread it three times. I knew it was important somehow, I just couldn't wrap my head around it.

Maybe sleep helped, but I think I figured it out. All of this is predicated on the pharoah being a good guy. I just realized that I was reading this again in order to figure it out.

Are we sure that's true?

I just don't think this strategy will work as well as any of us hope it will.

-Anxiety
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:10 PM   #357
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anxiety
I woke up from a nap and read this and had to reread it three times. I knew it was important somehow, I just couldn't wrap my head around it.

Maybe sleep helped, but I think I figured it out. All of this is predicated on the pharoah being a good guy. I just realized that I was reading this again in order to figure it out.

Are we sure that's true?

I just don't think this strategy will work as well as any of us hope it will.

-Anxiety
I just want to say that if the pharoah is a bad guy he's a crappy pharoah. The guy could change a nation's religion and did. In fact it's thought that the change of religion by Tut's father might have led to Tut being murdered.

Anxiety: You're wrong on the idea that this requires the pharoah to be good. It merely requires them to tell the truth. In the thing game, CW was bad, but continued to tell the truth. The same thing could work here. That said I still think the initial pharoah is likely to be good. 90% likely if I had to put a number on it. Perhaps even higher.

Last edited by Barkeep49 : 06-19-2006 at 08:11 PM.
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:11 PM   #358
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So, 3 way tie for vote lead between cronin, swaggs, and bek...who wants to cast the deciding vote(though, none of the 3 in question have their votes on any of their rivals)
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:14 PM   #359
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Blade: I'm hoping tangle will show up.

Bek: I see you're in the thread and you stated earlier you have some thoughts. Care to share?

With about 2 hours to deadline I am still hoping we'll see some of the 1 vote people coalalesce around our 3 leading candidates.
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:14 PM   #360
Abe Sargent
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49
Anxiety: You're wrong on the idea that this requires the pharoah to be good. It merely requires them to tell the truth.


Now that's a good point that I hadn't thought of, and I concede it.


-Anxiety
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:17 PM   #361
saldana
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49
Blade: I'm hoping tangle will show up.

Bek: I see you're in the thread and you stated earlier you have some thoughts. Care to share?

With about 2 hours to deadline I am still hoping we'll see some of the 1 vote people coalalesce around our 3 leading candidates.

as much as i hate being the deciding vote on day one, you know i wont let it be a tie....if it comes down to the wire, i will change in order to make sure there is a lynch
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:17 PM   #362
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49
Blade: I'm hoping tangle will show up.
Im giving him a pass on day one with his location, but i will not allow it pas that. Ive seen him be active and this deadline is later then most other games. I hope he shows, but in banking on one of bek, swaggs, or cronin deciding things.
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:19 PM   #363
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I think saldana is our best hope there.

And I agree Tangle doesn't get a pass past day 1.
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:21 PM   #364
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49
I think saldana is our best hope there.

And I agree Tangle doesn't get a pass past day 1.
Bek is in thread, so im leaning towards him saving his own neck. His vote change that put him in the lead was so perplexing that he might not though.
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:21 PM   #365
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49
Blade: I'm hoping tangle will show up.

Bek: I see you're in the thread and you stated earlier you have some thoughts. Care to share?

With about 2 hours to deadline I am still hoping we'll see some of the 1 vote people coalalesce around our 3 leading candidates.

Earlier i incorrectly voted for someone that had posted and in a effort of self preservation.... and this is day one voting so unfortunately i dont have any validating reason for it besides self preservation
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:24 PM   #366
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Isn't Tangle a completely different time zone though...he's always on a different schedule then everyone else...
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:25 PM   #367
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Originally Posted by Qwikshot
Isn't Tangle a completely different time zone though...he's always on a different schedule then everyone else...
UK i thought, so hence why were letting him pass. He usually shows up at night, so were letting it go today(though he has had all weekend... )
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:26 PM   #368
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Originally Posted by Qwikshot
Isn't Tangle a completely different time zone though...he's always on a different schedule then everyone else...


He is either in Europe or Australia. I don't remember which. usually he is in during the day though and misses the deadline if I remember right. He should have been in by now though.. however I don't like to vote away non-voters on day 1 usually.. dunno what happened to them. But anyone who hasnt showed up or participated much past day 1 is going to be considered on day 2 by me.
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:28 PM   #369
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He is in England. And he often has shown up already. Still want to hear from him. Ever since poor Mark Vaughn was railroaded in his only game I try and give some leeway to our overseas brethren, though not too much
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:29 PM   #370
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By "he often has shown up already" I mean he's often been around by this time of the lynch.
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:29 PM   #371
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49
He is in England. And he often has shown up already. Still want to hear from him. Ever since poor Mark Vaughn was railroaded in his only game I try and give some leeway to our overseas brethren, though not too much
I still feel bad about that one, though he did turn out to be a spawn to be fair.
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:30 PM   #372
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What is the reasoning for the current swing towards Swaggs? Is it because he has not checked in?
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:31 PM   #373
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Well, I'm standing by my vote, I was up at 4 AM...so I'm turning in early tonight...happy trails...and see you all tomorrow (I hope).
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:31 PM   #374
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Originally Posted by Blade6119
I still feel bad about that one, though he did turn out to be a spawn to be fair.
Details details
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:32 PM   #375
Barkeep49
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Especially as the reasoning that got everyone there was faulty, in that no one attempted to sabatoge the mission. The dice just rolled really poorly.
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:32 PM   #376
Blade6119
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Originally Posted by kingfc22
What is the reasoning for the current swing towards Swaggs? Is it because he has not checked in?
There was a swing to bek for not checking in and not voting, and now bek has voted 3 times...swaggs and tangle have yet to vote/talk, and since tangle in UK were letting him slide and voting swaggs.
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Old 06-19-2006, 08:52 PM   #377
saldana
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i'm out for dinner for the next hour...be back before the deadline in case the deadlock comes back.
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:05 PM   #378
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Originally Posted by saldana
as much as i hate being the deciding vote on day one, you know i wont let it be a tie....if it comes down to the wire, i will change in order to make sure there is a lynch

Don't have to worry about a no-lynch, path's vote is a tiebreaker.
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:07 PM   #379
Barkeep49
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Originally Posted by Tyrith
Don't have to worry about a no-lynch, path's vote is a tiebreaker.
I don't believe we know that to be true.
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:07 PM   #380
Barkeep49
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I don't believe we know that to be true.
My bad. We do know this to be true.
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:08 PM   #381
Tyrith
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General Info:
Roles are revealed by moderator/GM upon death.
Lynch every day, Pharoah initially has tie-breaker.
Deadlines: 9PM CST for lynch, 7AM CST for night actions (earlier if possible)

In the rules.
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:19 PM   #382
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we'll I'm not moving to create a tie again
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:26 PM   #383
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:28 PM   #384
Barkeep49
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Hey Swaggs.

So what is it with people showing up with long abscense and simply voting? Did I miss a memo or something? I hate to not be in on what the cool werewolf kids are doing.
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:39 PM   #385
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I feel like Day 1 has gotten stronger. It has been a boring conclusion though despite the closeness of the vote.
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:46 PM   #386
saldana
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so are we tied again...can a brother get a vote count
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:49 PM   #387
saldana
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unvote dubb93
vote swaggs


showing up, forcing a tie, and leaving again is about as useless as not showing up
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:52 PM   #388
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Cronin - Anxiety (178), Schmidty (200), Chubby (227)
Schmidty - Cronin (195)
Bulletsponge - Tyrith (196)
Tyrith - Kingfc (276)
Vince - Coffee (220)
Dubb - Saldana (248)
Tanglewood - Lathum (256)
Bek - SnDvls (266), Vince (285), Qwikshot (316), Swaggs (383)
Barkeep - Passacaglia (303)
Anxiety - Alan T (275)
Swaggs - Blade (344), Barkeep (345), Path (353), Bek (365), Saldana (387)

Bad vote - bulletsponge (216)
No votes - Tanglewood
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:53 PM   #389
saldana
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrith
General Info:
Roles are revealed by moderator/GM upon death.
Lynch every day, Pharoah initially has tie-breaker.
Deadlines: 9PM CST for lynch, 7AM CST for night actions (earlier if possible)

In the rules.
iirc, the pharaoh loses the tie break if he kills an egyptian, so i would rather not have that happen on the first day.
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:54 PM   #390
saldana
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dola, bek, if you turn out to be bad, you will be my new day one vote every game, even if you arent palying
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:54 PM   #391
saldana
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double dola,


Playing, not palying
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:55 PM   #392
Abe Sargent
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I hate it when Im palying.


-Anxiety
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:55 PM   #393
saldana
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double dola, hoops you forgot to delete my vote for dubb from your list
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:56 PM   #394
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Gentlemen this is serious business. No palying around!
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:56 PM   #395
Tyrith
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Pharaoh doesn't lose tiebreaker if he kills a friendly, he loses duke if he uses it to kill a friendly.

Side note, let's cement this, just in case.

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Old 06-19-2006, 09:56 PM   #396
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so swaggs is going down with 5 minutes left? Im ok with that result
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:56 PM   #397
Abe Sargent
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Broke you dola string - nah ha!


-Anxiety
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:56 PM   #398
Barkeep49
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double dola, hoops you forgot to delete my vote for dubb from your list
In what world would you be able to pull off a double dola minutes before lynch ?
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:57 PM   #399
saldana
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Originally Posted by Anxiety
Broke you dola string - nah ha!


-Anxiety

bite me
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Old 06-19-2006, 09:58 PM   #400
saldana
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In what world would you be able to pull off a double dola minutes before lynch ?

last game i was the only one in the thread at the deadline on one day
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