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Old 05-11-2017, 06:04 AM   #651
JAG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
I actually feel decent about that vote, looking back. I feel like the more active players in thread are all sounding good to me, making good points and grappling with the game. I suspect our wolves are among the quieter folk.

Reading back over D1 deadline stuff, there's this comment from Autumn, which would encourage people to avoid people like Brit, who had just gotten his second vote from CR. Abe then called him out for saying mau was quiet.
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Old 05-11-2017, 06:07 AM   #652
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Putting that there for the moment. I'm going to keep looking to see if there's anyone else I'd rather target, but so far I'm not big on any of the lead vote getters.

Another comment that would like to see people move from Jackal, font, and brit. (maybe I'll start grabbing all the comments in one thread)
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Old 05-11-2017, 06:14 AM   #653
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I also remembered Brit's comment about Autumn feeling very good making me wonder if he was our seer trying to drop a hint. Well, that's obviously not the case.
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Old 05-11-2017, 06:22 AM   #654
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No strong reason to vote brit, just would like to see him more engaged, if his work allows.

Is there merit in trying to suss out which roles a wolf captain or villager captain might go towards? For me, Larry Dallas stands out as one I'd really like to have as a wolf to have a chance to short-circuit the seer / BG / role that follows someone else, or at least hit a village role with a 100% guarantee whereas if they were on the village side, it would be of much less use, except maybe late in the game. A wolf captain might've wanted to deny the village a helpful role like Les Nessman also (that one would probably be high on both lists). And some of the roles have very unclear abilities, so this may not be so useful.

For the village captain out there, I'm on your side, you might want to consider what other roles you had higher than mine on your priority list as a possible bit of info whether they are good or not. Without giving yourself away of course.

I'll try and pop on over lunch, it's going to be another long day for me though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
My thoughts on the roles...


Larry Dallas - Typical role blocker. Probably not a high priority for wolves.

Terri Alden I'm presuming from the coloring is neutral, did EF say the neutral got to draft anyone? Could kill a wolf, so good to keep around if we can.

So Burns can scan but not reveal his scans, is that everyone's take? But can make a one-time kill. So we want to keep him alive long enough to find a wolf. Or a supposed one, since his scan isn't 100%

Natalie - I assume the night kill is her special move.

Skippy - Adds to the unreliability of scans, meaning we need to focus on other intelligence.

Klink - Might be a high target for both teams to draft.

Nessman - Not clear how much detail Les gets from following someone. Typically would just be that they had a night action. Again, an unreliable one, so not too much use.

Roz - Some type of bodyguard, high priority draft for either side really, but more likely villagers.

Harper - completely mystery. Probably not a wolf priority.

Potsie Weber seems worrisome, maybe a vigilante, with a one-time kill? Someone the wolves might try to draft.

Both Screech and Bud say "always trying to fit in", which seems important somehow. Another role blocker? But unreliable.

Not sure what Bud's writeup would mean. Unfortunately, since I was hoping we'd find a role we could use to confirm allegiance somehow.

Wayne Arnold - moves a vote I assume?

Mel Sharples - probably a duke role

Murdock - Again the phrase "loyal". Does this mean that we have a conversion mechanic at play?


If I had to guess what the wolves might have prioritized, I'd say Klink, Potsie, Mel and Wayne. In a small game controlling even one vote could be a game changer, as would an extra kill, and knowing roles would be very helpful for the wolves. Though thinking on the second level, captain might have mixed it up to throw us off the path. How many wolves do we think? Two or three? If there's a possibility of conversion, which I think is likely, probably just two.

Quote:
Originally Posted by britrock88 View Post
Okay. Role analysis (asterisks for roles with apparent night actions):

Larry Dallas* - role-blocker; probably town
Terri Alden* - neutral booby-trap (I've forgotten all the WW role jargon); what's her WC?
Major Burns* - flawed seer with a one-time NK; Good captain
Natalie Green* - (brutal?) wolf with NK; Bad captain
Skippy Handelman - scan-wrecker; more valuable as Bad?
Colonel Klink - role-learner, which seems alignment-neutral
Les Nessman* - flawed spy; leans Good, IMO
Roz Russell* - BG of some kind
Vinton Harper - village idiot?
Potsie Weber - hunter? another neutral role???
Screech Powers* - action-frustrater; leans Bad
Bud Bundy - another neutral role???
Wayne Arnold* - action-redirecter, cunning?; leans Bad
Mel Sharples - mayor? alpha wolf?
Jeffrey Murdock - ?

Extra ???s for possible neutrals because I really think there's only one.

...Man, I forgot how vague some of these were.

I also find this interesting, after Autumn came up as Larry Dallas and wolf.
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Old 05-11-2017, 06:59 AM   #655
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Font makes a number of points regarding Brit. Post 456 where as she points out Autumn starts by highlighting the strongest point not to vote for Brit is particularly bad.

I also read back over bholly d1 and d2. He has some interactions with Autumn, but nothing that feels like coordination or either trying to protect each other. He even said his Autumn wolf sensors were tingling D2.

So yeah, pretty convinced Brit looks bad here.
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Old 05-11-2017, 06:59 AM   #656
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Vote Brit
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Old 05-11-2017, 07:03 AM   #657
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I haven't had a great run the past couple days, so if people want I'm happy to talk about my role ability and use it as directed by those who have done better.
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Old 05-11-2017, 08:26 AM   #658
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Originally Posted by JAG View Post
I also remembered Brit's comment about Autumn feeling very good making me wonder if he was our seer trying to drop a hint. Well, that's obviously not the case.

Well...all of the seer roles have some uncertainty about them:

Burns: paranoid = scans may not always be accurate
Skippy: if scanned, all other scans by scanner will result in opposite read

So there could have been an unreliable read on Autumn, or the seer (Burns) could have scanned Skippy N0 then Autumn N1 which would show Autumn as town.

That's an unlikely series of events so I'm not defending brit by any means. Just wanted to tug the reins on thinking this was definitive.
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Old 05-11-2017, 08:27 AM   #659
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Sorry: "the seer role..."

Was including Skippy's possible impact on seer but there is just one seer.
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Old 05-11-2017, 08:43 AM   #660
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Alright, three jobs applied for. Got an interview tomorrow with PSU so we'll see how that goes too.

Congrats, Abe!
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Old 05-11-2017, 08:46 AM   #661
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JAG and font make compelling enough cases for me to land an initial vote. Thanks for the leg work in digging up posts!
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Old 05-11-2017, 08:46 AM   #662
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vote brit
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Old 05-11-2017, 08:52 AM   #663
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Well...all of the seer roles have some uncertainty about them:

Burns: paranoid = scans may not always be accurate
Skippy: if scanned, all other scans by scanner will result in opposite read

So there could have been an unreliable read on Autumn, or the seer (Burns) could have scanned Skippy N0 then Autumn N1 which would show Autumn as town.

That's an unlikely series of events so I'm not defending brit by any means. Just wanted to tug the reins on thinking this was definitive.

Good points.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:29 AM   #664
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Morning all! Let's get caught up
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:30 AM   #665
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Keep tarcone alive still?
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:33 AM   #666
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Morning, thread! We've got a runaway on our hands!
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:34 AM   #667
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I'd like to keep Tarcone alive because she's not been around for a long time, but it;s Day 3, time to start kickign the tires of the quieter people.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:39 AM   #668
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fontisian is also a possibility.. both were on the extra vote receiver both days. But then we also have to wonder whether the mechanic is a double vote for someone, which is pretty easy to ferret out over time.. or is it that somebody gets to place any two votes and they don't have to be on the same player. Obviously though that whoever it is is a villager, since wolves received the extra vote both days.

Re: the extra vote: compare post 409 with the initial deadline tally you quoted in post 413. The extra vote was on Jackal when only Bhlloy and myself were included. I've already disclaimed the extra-vote power.

Then there's this:

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I'm pretty sure I'm the double voter.

This is the reason for just about my last bit of suspicion toward Font. I'll circle back to Telle's good point that it may be a slightly different mechanic at play than doubling the player's deadline vote--it could be a secretly assigned extra vote, it could stick to the first person voted on that day, so on.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:39 AM   #669
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Nice, long analysis post

Thanks for this. I agree that I look to be pretty well entangled with Autumn. There are a couple of instances where you make a statement and a passing reference to time, though, where the time that lapsed was rather important. (The run-up to the D1 lynch sticks out in my mind.)
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:40 AM   #670
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I am Vinton Harper. I wasn't 100% certain about Autumn, but I was certain enough. I'm convinced the wolves bussed Jackal, which means they're scrambling at this point. That was my one-shot duke ability.

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Old 05-11-2017, 10:40 AM   #671
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I also think Autumn's vote on Abe makes Abe look a little better than I'd previously thought, although I'd have to go back and look at what kind of a chance he had to move it without putting himself in danger.

And if you think Abe is looking better and you believe him that he didn't get online until after the vote, it's worth noting the only other person who didn't move off a dead vote on fontisian was... britrock

I concur that the quiet approach to D2 deadline likely suggests that we had Goods in the running.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:41 AM   #672
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Yes font, that would be a comment for the ages if I praised the wolves for their thread analysis.

Fortunately, you're only half-right.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:42 AM   #673
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I know a lot of you have been doing vote analysis quite ably. Good job!

I wanted to do some night analysis

Here's what we know:

N1 - One death, it was the BG
N2 - No deaths

Now, we know that Autumn had the playboy interferer thing going. Taking out the BG on N1 is tough. Either Julio was targeted or was guarding the target, and in some rules sets, I've seen the BG die when that happens, but note an interesting set of words used in the N1 kill, that he died with a smile on his face happy. Could that have been Dallas the playboy either interfering with his BG ness to get him killed or maybe even the killer? Someone else? Or was it just GM EF flowery language.


I suspect the N1 language of happiness fits Dallas as the killer, now that we know that role, so watch future night kills for language to see if they connect up.

On N2, we have no kills or anything in thread. I'd love to hear more about what happened.

And what
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:44 AM   #674
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You all get a good night's sleep on your cardboard slabs and wake up refreshed and with an overwhelming feeling of blood-lust. Who will be next?

As you all gather you notice that Julio Riddols is nowhere in site. You find his remains and see that he seemed to die with a smile on his face.

As you look closer you see that he is not a he at all. This was Rosalind Russell, essentially your high draft pick bodyguard.

This has been a disturbing turn of events.

Here is the N1 results, and I bolded the interesting part. At teh time, I thought it was just flowery language, but now that we know Autumn;s role, it seems to connect,.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:49 AM   #675
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This is a tough spot. I'm on my way to being run up (all 4 votes on me thus far), and I'm struggling to offer a good alternative to myself for lynch today. I keep thinking that maybe someone in the talented trio of JAG, Font, and Bhlloy could be our last Bad (given that several others are meta-cleared), but they all seem to be playing good games.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:50 AM   #676
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So, for the sake of Good having full information, I'll come out with my special knowledge, let you process that, and then, presuming that I still die (because I don't expect this to exonerate me), use today's discussion to inform tomorrow's discussion.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:50 AM   #677
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Alright, I'm off, going to be away for a few hours, may not be back until 3:00 ish
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:54 AM   #678
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I'm Wayne Arnold, the bully. I'm town (even as my analysis suggested the role would likely be Bad--I was surprised I ended up Good). My power is to redirect a player's night action to a player of my choosing.

As deadline approached on D1, my vote was on Jackal, but I was carrying a suspicion of Font (which led to my D2 vote on her). So I put in the order to redirect Font's night action to JAG (whom I have lingering gut suspicions of; see above).

On D2, I didn't use my power at all, because it actually seems rather chaotic and probably not useful to the village, on net.

Now, with Font suggesting she may have the extra vote, I'm concerned she doesn't have a night action that she would have seen redirected to JAG. I'm also concerned that if she's the remaining Bad (low odds, but still), she'll refute my claim in any case.

That's what I have.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:54 AM   #679
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vote JAG
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:55 AM   #680
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Not going on much other than a relative downtick in involvement/analysis, even as JAG has said that he's been fairly busy IRL.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:56 AM   #681
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For the village's sake, I'd rather that some viable alternative candidate be put forward. If we tunnel on me, we won't like the result and the lack of illumination conversation/vote history that we get moving forward.
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Old 05-11-2017, 11:37 AM   #682
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Not going on much other than a relative downtick in involvement/analysis, even as JAG has said that he's been fairly busy IRL.

In fact if you read back, my involvement ramped up from the beginning of the week when auditors were here. With all the info available from the past two days, this does not seem like a great case for voting me (granted I might be a bit biased here...)
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Old 05-11-2017, 11:38 AM   #683
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For the village's sake, I'd rather that some viable alternative candidate be put forward. If we tunnel on me, we won't like the result and the lack of illumination conversation/vote history that we get moving forward.

Because the game will be over?

Maybe EF will make us have to eliminate the neutral role for bonus credit.
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Old 05-11-2017, 11:43 AM   #684
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Here is the N1 results, and I bolded the interesting part. At teh time, I thought it was just flowery language, but now that we know Autumn;s role, it seems to connect,.

By the way, this was a good catch Abe. I didn't pay much attention to the write up. I'm not sure we can do much with the info though.
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Old 05-11-2017, 11:50 AM   #685
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In fact if you read back, my involvement ramped up from the beginning of the week when auditors were here. With all the info available from the past two days, this does not seem like a great case for voting me (granted I might be a bit biased here...)

I'm a little frazzled for having read Autumn so incorrectly. But then, you gave him a tip-of-the-hat for his play, so...
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Old 05-11-2017, 11:52 AM   #686
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(I would really hope that if Tarc is the last Bad, and hasn't posted in >48 hours, that EF would just call the game for Good.)
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Old 05-11-2017, 11:53 AM   #687
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JAG, where would you vote next if I were off the table?
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Old 05-11-2017, 12:42 PM   #688
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Originally Posted by Abe Sargent View Post
I know a lot of you have been doing vote analysis quite ably. Good job!

I wanted to do some night analysis

Here's what we know:

N1 - One death, it was the BG
N2 - No deaths

Now, we know that Autumn had the playboy interferer thing going. Taking out the BG on N1 is tough. Either Julio was targeted or was guarding the target, and in some rules sets, I've seen the BG die when that happens, but note an interesting set of words used in the N1 kill, that he died with a smile on his face happy. Could that have been Dallas the playboy either interfering with his BG ness to get him killed or maybe even the killer? Someone else? Or was it just GM EF flowery language.


I suspect the N1 language of happiness fits Dallas as the killer, now that we know that role, so watch future night kills for language to see if they connect up.

On N2, we have no kills or anything in thread. I'd love to hear more about what happened.

And what

Yeah, I don't know what that means but like you say, the odds of the BG successfully protecting on N1 are pretty low

Also I don't think the N2 lack of kill is anything good for the village, as somebody (JAG?) already pointed out

I think we have to look at tarcone tomorrow, just for the integrity of the game. I'm happy with brit today but other than that I'm not sure where to look, other than the guy who is completely AWOL and could be anything.

Hmm, something did just occur to me. If tarcone is the third and final wolf, that could explain the lack of NK on day 2? Here's the list of order precedence:


Order of Night Actions
- Stealth/disguise orders (will be in place for the remaining steps)
- Watch/follow orders (will be in place for the remaining steps)
- Protection orders
- Village attack orders
- Wolf attack orders
- Scan orders


So if Autumn gets duked and tarcone is the last wolf but doesn't have a PM in, does that mean no NK? Or would Autumn's order still get executed? I have no idea how this works usually
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Old 05-11-2017, 12:52 PM   #689
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Looking at that, it's also notable to me to see stealth/disguise orders - is that explicitly called out in anyone's character description? That's a new one to me
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Old 05-11-2017, 01:04 PM   #690
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JAG, where would you vote next if I were off the table?

The only other person that stands out to me objectively is font, because she and Jackal voted each other D1 but then each backed off (and Jackal never voted her again despite that she would've been a good self-defense option), Autumn did not vote font D1 despite that being the most logical spot to defend Jackal, and Autumn voted her D2 but backed off later and he did not appear to be a strong consideration for her. Baaed on what bhlloy posted, tarcone as the last wolf and unable to do the NK due to inactivity is possible too, although if that's the case then the game is already over.

But based on some of font's posts after deadline, she seems to have something going on behind the scenes she can point to for being good that was semi-confirmed by another player. And she has made a pretty compelling case why certain players are good and why she has misgivings about you.
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Old 05-11-2017, 01:29 PM   #691
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(I would really hope that if Tarc is the last Bad, and hasn't posted in >48 hours, that EF would just call the game for Good.)

Yeah, that would be hilarious otherwise.
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Old 05-11-2017, 01:35 PM   #692
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For the Night 2 thing, in addition to a potential conversion or missed N2 order or something, there are a few roles still out there that could be playing havoc with this too, in addition to the BG:

Roles

Not all roles may be in the game.


Irwin "Skippy" Handelman - Always love-sick for anyone that looks his way. He has gotten over Mallory by latching on to anyone that looks his way. This means that anyone that looks his way cannot get rid of him. If he is scanned at night he will annoy the scanner so much that any subsequent scan by that player during the game will result in an opposite scan of what it would have been.


Samuel "Screech" Powers - The nerd of the group. Always the outcast. Always trying to fit in. May be a deviant but always a friendly one. Will try to date someone each night only to annoy them for the night. The problem is, he can be easily distracted and may stray from his original target because someone else smiled at him.

Bud Bundy - Grandmaster B to his friends. He will be the life of the party, in his own mind. Tries to fit in with the others but sticks to himself in reality. May develop abilities depending on his alignment.

Wayne Arnold - Always the bullying big brother. He will find someone to do his bidding.

Mel Sharples - Make no mistake, he is in charge.

Jeffrey Murdock - A very odd bird, yet loyal. He has many theories about life as we know it. Beware the giggle loop and the melty man.

But specially Screech, Murdock and skippy could be responsible for some night chaos, in addition to the roles we just don;t know a lot about, iek Bud.
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Old 05-11-2017, 01:49 PM   #693
bhlloy
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Not sure skippy can do anything other than block/screw up a scan, also I don't read screech's powers as being able to block a NK either - isn't a NK action not a single action by a single player?

You may well be right, that's not the way I've been interpreting it however.

It's definitely possible that one of the other more vague roles has a BG like power out there somewhere too
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Old 05-11-2017, 01:58 PM   #694
Abe Sargent
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I think the roles in this game generally have levels of vagueness attached to them that we get clarified in initial. I know mine does. So I'm not sure if Screech blocks anything, it just says he tries to date them and leaves them annoyed. Could be it blocks the person yo targeted from doing anything, wolf actions included. Could be it keeps that person from getting any information from their role instead, but otherwise can d it. Could just act like a witness and see what happened with the person being angry. Shoot, the angry person could wind up with the two votes the following day, we don't know.

But I suspect the first one is correct, that Screech interferes with night stuff, but not always. What and to what extent we just can;t tell from the description.
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Old 05-11-2017, 02:06 PM   #695
Abe Sargent
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Vote britrock
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Old 05-11-2017, 02:06 PM   #696
Abe Sargent
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I think the trust circle is in a good place with two wolves' history to go off. BR isn;t in a great place
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Old 05-11-2017, 02:08 PM   #697
JAG
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If someone has a role that can prevent someone from taking night actions (assuming Brit is lying about his role / role abilities) and made use of it last night, that would be useful evidence to share.
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Old 05-11-2017, 02:11 PM   #698
JAG
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Oh, I thought Brit was claiming that power, it was redirecting night abilities. Another night action blocking role would seem to overlap with the seducer role though.
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Old 05-11-2017, 02:45 PM   #699
Telle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by britrock88 View Post
Re: the extra vote: compare post 409 with the initial deadline tally you quoted in post 413. The extra vote was on Jackal when only Bhlloy and myself were included. I've already disclaimed the extra-vote power.

Then there's this:



This is the reason for just about my last bit of suspicion toward Font. I'll circle back to Telle's good point that it may be a slightly different mechanic at play than doubling the player's deadline vote--it could be a secretly assigned extra vote, it could stick to the first person voted on that day, so on.

Huh.. I didn't catch that. Yeah Jackal has an extra vote on him (3 with only 2 voters) in the original final vote count that I show quoted in post 413. Probably makes the most sense that it's bhlloy then with the extra vote, unless it isn't a double vote and is instead a secret additional vote like I mentioned was a possibility.
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Old 05-11-2017, 02:49 PM   #700
Telle
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Votes as of post #699:
5 britrock88 - fontisian 635, bhlloy 648, JAG 656, cheekimonk 662, Abe Sargent 695
1 JAG - britrock88 679

Yet to vote: tarcone, Telle, mauchow
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