Werewolf CXXXIII - The Dark Knight - MOBSTERS WIN

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm conflicted. I still feel in my gut that Batman actually revealing has negative consequences for him via the mob, even if we as a general public won't find out who he is. It's certainly possible they won't find out either. The Joker has already claimed he'll find out if Batman reveals, but we can't know that for sure. But that's what he wanted all along during the movie, so he might be telling the truth.

If we are worried about The Joker learning some secret information then we just need to make sure he is dead.

[bhlloy]

The idea that the Joker mechanic is following the book and that one person in his vote is definitely a mobster is intriguing... might be worth taking a shot today rather than no vote as 50/50 is pretty damn good odds for us.

If we can get it down to 50/50 on the text vote and then no lynch by voting Danny again that's a great outcome.

[bhlloy]

or the other option with a Danny vote is that Batman has revealed and we get him out of the game, which is another good outcome

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

The idea that the Joker mechanic is following the book and that one person in his vote is definitely a mobster is intriguing... might be worth taking a shot today rather than no vote as 50/50 is pretty damn good odds for us.

If we can get it down to 50/50 on the text vote and then no lynch by voting Danny again that's a great outcome.

I feel like it's more likely that Danny chose the two people himself then it being a definite 50/50 chance. But I'm also not opposed to a lynch of either of those two people, especially over a random lynch, so whatever logic you want to use works for me I guess.

[Autumn]

Since the question has come up, I will state that The Joker chooses the two possible victims, and the no kill victim is indeed random. Those are mechanics that are clear and public to you.

[mauchow]

Forgot my cell phone at home so I wasn't able to check out the thread til now. Some somewhat interesting developments have been brought to light. We'll see what people decide. I will have a busy afternoon closing loans so I may not be able to contribute a whole lot after lunch.. not that I ever contribute anything anyway.

[Chubby]

well I'm going to hope that people continue to reveal as batman whether they are or aren't and vote for Danny to be lynched.

Vote Danny

I can only reiterate that I know I'm a vanilla citizen and I believe mauboy to be a citizen as well and will not play the Joker's game based on my viewing of the movie

[The Jackal]

I still don't like how ready you are to throw aside the idea that Batman revealing in the thread doesn't have important negative consequences for him/us.

[The Jackal]

Or I guess that those consequences are worth getting rid of the Joker. Which they may in fact be, but the mob is probably enjoying the lack of attention headed their way at the moment.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I still don't like how ready you are to throw aside the idea that Batman revealing in the thread doesn't have important negative consequences for him/us.

so far this has followed the movie pretty well. do i think it's guaranteed there really will be a random kill if we text no kill? nope, based off the movie BW/Batman saved the tv host. It is certainly possible it will happen to do game balancing

am i convinced that the only way to bring the joker to justice is thru batman revealing himself? no, this same scenario was put forth in the movie and batman caught the joker just fine without revealing his idenity. again, it's certainly possible for game balance that that may be the batman role's game mechanic.

again, i'm much happier we face this now than down the road where we're risking endgame with our decision or after we've accidently lynched batman (or he was NKd but i'd be surprised if that was possible)

[Chubby]

it's also certainly possible that batman has already revealed himself allowing Danny to be lynched, this is why i would continue to suggest everyone comes out as batman and we do away with the Joker (our biggest threat to Gotham IMO as well as the movie's opinion) once and for all.

[Chubby]

remember, in the movie the mob contacts the Joker and sets him loose on Gotham which means they know who he is and the Joker knows who they are.

until something happens contrary to the movie I will continue with my assumption that this is following the movie

(trying to get as many thoughts in as I can on my 1/2 hour lunch break)

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

But, um, aren't you now telling me how to play my game? What's the difference?



[/rant]

The difference is very simple. One is based on this game, and the other was based on previous games. That distinction means everything.

[Abe Sargent]

As I mentioned earlier, I'm happy to text Chubby, it was likely my vote anyway. Let me get caught up with everything else though.

Text Chubby

[Chubby]

gotta head back to work

hopefully everyone gets a chance to rewatch the movie before tonight ends

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

You're convinced that "TEXT NO KILL" means random kill and I'm not. That's all there is to it. Joker is a reasonable man when it comes to keeping his word.

What I see is this. We had bad day yesterday for vote analysis so far. It was way to weird. Today we get TWO shots at vote analysis. If all you do is vote text no kill, then not only do we lose vote analysis, but we take a shot likely as random as the two on the block. Why ruin this opportunity. I think The Joker did us a favor, and we shouldn;t look a gift horse in the mouth.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Chubby do you really think it's smart to have a random person lynched? That allows for 0 opportunity for a reveal of an important role.
I

I can;t agree with this logic any more than I already do.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm going to accept all the orders put in so far today, but just to be clear, the format is:

TEXT KILL "PERSON"
or
TEXT NO KILL

Sorry,

Text Kill Chubby

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Chubby

well I'm going to hope that people continue to reveal as batman whether they are or aren't and vote for Danny to be lynched.

Vote Danny

I can only reiterate that I know I'm a vanilla citizen and I believe mauboy to be a citizen as well and will not play the Joker's game based on my viewing of the movie

And this is why I think you are a wolf. The wolves gain the most from forcing the character who likely has the most power for the good guys out early. Why push for it. That's how you pinged my wolf-dar. Anyone who follows also does so.

[J23]

I will stick by my opinion that it isn't a good option to play the Joker's game and pick someone to kill.

[Tyrith]

I'm honestly pretty surprised at how much that aggravates you, Abe. It seems like the same kind of political/social dynamic that is the only thing that makes most forms of multiplayer Magic playable. I suppose it makes sense if you don't think of excessive quietness as something that diminishes the game, but then you and Narc (and you and me, frankly) will have to agree to disagree.

Anyway, this is a discussion completely outside the context of whether or not you're a wolf, so it doesn't have anything to do with the game at hand.

[Chief Rum]

I hate two job days. I hate two job days that coincied with long Day Ones. I hate long Day Ones that happen in games with lots of players. And I hate all of you.

Okay, now that's over...

Too much fo a run on chubby in The Joker's game.

TEXT KILL MAUBOY1

I will withhold my lynch vote until later.

[Tyrith]

My honest read on Chubby is that he's an overeager villager who has ideas that I don't really agree with, but is fundamentally honest. That or the wolves really, really need Batman dead.

I wouldn't terribly mind if he was dead, but I feel like this whole Joker axis is going to diminish the usefulness of everything that has gone on for these first two days, and at some point we're going to need to move on. This is probably going to take killing Chubby, killing Danny, or both. When I put it in that light, Chubby's plan isn't so bad, because this game is going to be hijacked by this whole Joker thing until we somehow deal with it - it's just not the sort of thing that certain people are going to be willing to let go of, and persistent people do tend to get their way.

I don't really want to do anything voting wise until I know where we are count wise, though.

[Autumn]

Gotham City's Noontime News

Bhlloy - Narcizo (626)
Danny - J23 (661), mckerney (683), chubby (707)

[Autumn]

Who Will Gotham Kill?

Kill Mauboy - narcizo (626), chief rum (722)
Kill Chubby - mckerney (663), abe sargent (714)
No Kill - Chubby (627), mauboy (633), J23 (661)

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by J23

I will stick by my opinion that it isn't a good option to play the Joker's game and pick someone to kill.

Vote J23

You were on my radar for the whole Batman-bandwagon thing, and this makes no sense either. You want to risk losing a roled player without a chance to defend themselves? You want to risk not having extra voting information with which to find the mob?

Anyway, I reserve the right to change this later if another person pings my senses more, but I'm comfortable with this for now.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Too much fo a run on chubby in The Joker's game.

You think that two total texts is a run?

[bhlloy]

Abe - do you really think the wolves would be the ones vocal about Danny? I think everyone (including yours truly) are possibly misguided but if we do the same thing over and over again it's kill the vocal people early and then find that all the wolves were among the ones hiding from the discussion.

I find it very hard to believe that a wolf would come out on day 1 and put forward such a strong opinion that could have such negative consequences. If that puts me on your radar as well, so be it.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Abe - do you really think the wolves would be the ones vocal about Danny? I think everyone (including yours truly) are possibly misguided but if we do the same thing over and over again it's kill the vocal people early and then find that all the wolves were among the ones hiding from the discussion.

I find it very hard to believe that a wolf would come out on day 1 and put forward such a strong opinion that could have such negative consequences. If that puts me on your radar as well, so be it.

Are you referring to voting for Danny? No, I do not. I don;t think voting for Danny then or now is necessarily wolfy .

[bhlloy]

Got it. I do agree that a strong opinion on no joker kill could be significant, especially if down the line we find that there was a mobster among the two up there.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

You think that two total texts is a run?

I actually thought it was three. I guess it was more about the constant talk about Chubby, with no real debate about mauboy1. Not that either is some great candidate, but these are the candidates whom we have been presented.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

You were on my radar for the whole Batman-bandwagon thing, and this makes no sense either. You want to risk losing a roled player without a chance to defend themselves? You want to risk not having extra voting information with which to find the mob?

Do you mean my thoughts that we should all declare that we're batman and open Joker up to be lynched? Yes, I'm all for that.

Do you mean the voting no kill? Yes, I'm also for that, though the two aren't related in the way you seem to be trying to make them.

I'd like everyone to declare they're batman, then for the village to lynch danny, and hopefully the text kill bit doesn't even matter. If it does matter, I'm not sure that we end up getting a random killing or not. Autumn is very careful about stating what information we knew about the text vote which makes me think there is certainly a hidden mechanic or two involved. Based on the boat scene in the movie (see spoiler tag a while back), I'm not sure that picking one of them is a correct choice. I'm willing to explore that option. However, if the majority of people end up picking one of the two candidates, I will likely follow suit since a no kill would then be wasted.

[Tyrith]

The difference is that Chubby has been the pusher of the primary idea that has been taking up our time today, and mauboy is mostly just a random UTR from day 1. Chubby is an issue that we have to confront one way or the other. Not saying that he needs to die, but we've had plenty of reason to talk about him, whereas mauboy is just "the alternative."

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by J23

Based on the boat scene in the movie (see spoiler tag a while back), I'm not sure that picking one of them is a correct choice. I'm willing to explore that option. However, if the majority of people end up picking one of the two candidates, I will likely follow suit since a no kill would then be wasted.

This is where I'm falling right now when it comes to the Joker's game.

[J23]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Got it. I do agree that a strong opinion on no joker kill could be significant, especially if down the line we find that there was a mobster among the two up there.

If I was a mobster, and a mobster was one of the two option, would I really want to tie myself to them by making the arguement?

I don't think the voting history over a 2-man race really benefits us terribly much when we have 20 people voting. Could it suck if a random roled villager got killed? Yep. I'm hoping the no kill will do just that, not kill anyone.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by J23

Do you mean my thoughts that we should all declare that we're batman and open Joker up to be lynched? Yes, I'm all for that.

I'd like everyone to declare they're batman, then for the village to lynch danny, and hopefully the text kill bit doesn't even matter.

Those of you that have been pulling for everyone to declare that they are batman are really skirting the issue of how devastating it could be to force batman's hand in this situation, and the negative things that could be triggered from it this early in the game.

Yes, we don't know who if anyone is informed when the real batman reveals.

Yes, we know that hidden/secret events are triggered when this happens.

I think we want batman to survive as long as possible. I want the joker dead too, but pushing hard for batman to reveal, likely revealing him to the mob and/or the joker (this is speculation on my part), even if we won't find out publicly who he is, sounds very dangerous to me. And though we can all agree we want the distraction of the joker gone, it's making you guys seem VERY wolfish.

[The Jackal]

If you are vanilla or at least on the side of good, you have to sit back and ask yourself if it is worth it to sacrifice batman like this. We can all say oh well we don't know exactly what will happen, so hopefully he'll be ok because he's batman and batman's awesome, but that's rather selfish, and in my opinion not the best direction of the village.

[The Jackal]

Or we'll get lucky and lots of people reveal as batman won't do anything. But that's a big risk to take.

[J23]

I have no idea how powerful batman's abilities are, or what changes they might go through once he's "revealed". I know that Joker had powers unlocked, and the first one is an extra lynch vote between two people of his choice. I really don't want that or furthur surprises to continue from him. I just don't think your speculation makes sense given the information that has been given. Will it have bad consequences? It might. Will it be worse than the Joker's new powers are likely to be? I don't think so.

[Tyrith]

It seems pretty internally inconsistent for me to want to let Batman stay hidden by not voting for Danny and trying to force his hand by thinking about going no vote on The Joker's game. I guess I'm just a little afraid of the consequences of participating in the texting, but I guess it can't be too bad or else the game wouldn't balance.

Instead of no vote, wouldn't it make more sense to text for one of the Joker's two victims and vote to lynch them? Would this invalidate whichever of the two actions would be processed second?

[Narcizo]

Wolves don't like extra kills that they can't solely control. If given a choice a wolf will no lynch vote till the cows come home. Were I a wolf and it was two villagers on the block in Chubby-Mau I'd still be tempted to roll the dice on a random death if I thought I could get away with it. Presuming 4 wolves and the Joker not being at risk to his own mechanic I think a random shot gives us a 4/19 shot of getting a wolf and a 4/19 shot of taking out a named role. I'm absolutely not convinced that there's less than a less than 4/19 shot of getting a wolf in voting mau or Chubby. I'm absolutely convinced there's less than a 4/19 shot of getting a major role.

We lynch two people and we get twice the amount of information for the one night kill. Simple as that. This is a bonus for the village. Voting Danny is just what the mob want. No lynch = win for the mob.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by J23

I have no idea how powerful batman's abilities are, or what changes they might go through once he's "revealed". I know that Joker had powers unlocked, and the first one is an extra lynch vote between two people of his choice. I really don't want that or furthur surprises to continue from him. I just don't think your speculation makes sense given the information that has been given. Will it have bad consequences? It might. Will it be worse than the Joker's new powers are likely to be? I don't think so.

It's a Batman movie game. Batman is going to be a very powerful force on the side of good. I'm willing to chuck a random villager off a cliff to keep him around (as detestable as Batman might find it.)

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by J23

I just don't think your speculation makes sense given the information that has been given. Will it have bad consequences? It might. Will it be worse than the Joker's new powers are likely to be? I don't think so.

Hrm.

Originally Posted by Autumn

The only way to make the Joker lynchable is for Batman to reveal his identity. If Batman reveals who he is in this thread by stating "I am Batman" the Joker will lose his ability to avoid lynch. It won't bode well for the Batman though, he's made a few enemies himself.

I think my speculation makes plenty of sense.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Instead of no vote, wouldn't it make more sense to text for one of the Joker's two victims and vote to lynch them? Would this invalidate whichever of the two actions would be processed second?

This is an interesting idea.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

We lynch two people and we get twice the amount of information for the one night kill. Simple as that. This is a bonus for the village. Voting Danny is just what the mob want. No lynch = win for the mob.

If this is what you want, then what's the problem with texting one of chubby/mau and actually voting for a person instead of having it be random? That eliminates the chance of removing a major role without the opportunity to reveal.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

The difference is that Chubby has been the pusher of the primary idea that has been taking up our time today, and mauboy is mostly just a random UTR from day 1. Chubby is an issue that we have to confront one way or the other. Not saying that he needs to die, but we've had plenty of reason to talk about him, whereas mauboy is just "the alternative."

Like it or not mauboy being the close second in a lynch vote means that there's always going to be just as many questions about him as there are about Chubby. I would argue that the fact that there seemed to be a run onto Danny when mau's head was on the block means that he isn't just a random UTR from day 1 anymore.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

If this is what you want, then what's the problem with texting one of chubby/mau and actually voting for a person instead of having it be random? That eliminates the chance of removing a major role without the opportunity to reveal.

Sorry, I don't understand. That's what I have done.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Sorry, I don't understand. That's what I have done.

I probably just misread your post with all the stats, I guess we're on the same page then. I thought you were advocating we lynch someone randomly because it's what the wolves don't want.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Like it or not mauboy being the close second in a lynch vote means that there's always going to be just as many questions about him as there are about Chubby. I would argue that the fact that there seemed to be a run onto Danny when mau's head was on the block means that he isn't just a random UTR from day 1 anymore.

True, I mostly just meant that the nature of mauboy's candidacy means we are going to be talking about less, not that he isn't a reasonable candidate. Chubby has been presenting new ideas we've had to discuss, whereas mauboy's candidacy is much more normal. I think offing mauboy today is fine, even if it would be unexciting.

Although, entertainingly, Chubby is the one that was pushing people onto Danny - could the whole thing have been contrived as a way to save him? That would have been a pretty good acting job during the last 10 minutes before the deadline, though.

[Narcizo]

I don't think Chief's no lynch should be ignored yesterday. Again though that's verging on the too wolfy to actually be wolfy.

Abe's vote is consistent with my impression of him so I don't think it says much about his wolfishness one way or the other - but the fact that he's the only one here who seems to be making much sense means that I kind of trust him at the moment.