Katrina hits Category 5.

[Flasch186]

my prayers are wih you!!

get out!!!

[jackyl]

Mandatory evacuation announced by the Mayor.

[Ryche]

Has anyone seen the projections of what a Cat 5 storm could do if it were to hit New Orleans properly? I can't believe they have just now called a mandatory evacuation. I hope no one here is in New Orleans right now.

[Ryche]

http://americanradioworks.publicradi...urricane1.html

An article about the possibilities.

[Lathum]

Damn. I'll be driving through Tennessee on Tuesday-Wednesday

[ScottVib]

The Mayor of New Orleans reported that Bush called to ask him to evacuate the city. They are expecting the entire city and levees to be submerged under a 20-25 foot storm surge, 30-40 feet waves on top of that. They are expecting much of Southern Louisiana's electrical distribution system to be decimated (weeks to months to restore power).

And the wind speed estimate has been upped to 175 mph.

Hopefully there is an eyewall regeneration cycle that can moderate the storm a bit prior to landfall (FWIW there is expected to be at least some slight weakening, as hurricanes rarely maintain such a potent wind field, but the current forecast keeps it a Category 5 upon landfall).

[Ksyrup]

If it gained even a couple of miles per hour, it could be the first entry in Category 6 on the S-S scale. Every category is about 21 MPH, and 175 is right at 20 MPH above the 155 for Category 5.

If that thing doesn't start moving NW and then N soon, it will hit NO. I'm not putting muh faith in their projections...too many storms have been predicted to come our way and then end up nowhere near us. They are pretty much reacting to movement after the fact as opposed to predicting anything, IMO. It's only when it comes down to the last 12-24 hours and the storm can't go anywhere but a small area that they really have any idea where it's going.

[Tigercat]

The good news for New Orleans is that the bulk of the projections continue to move to the East since yesturday. New Orleans could be spared the very worst. And this isn't the worst case scenario storm simply because of its angle, the worst case storm works up the the river a little more ending up just west of the lake, forcing water up the river and south out of the lake.

It looks like the Mississipi/LA boarder may get the worst of this sucker. I fear that my grandparents house on the gulf will not survive the storm. (They lost a house in Camille to thanks to the 26 foor surge then.) But at least they got out and are safe.

[Tigercat]

There isn't a 6 on the SS scale, if there was Andrew would have been a 6 and Camille would have been around a 7. And boy do I hope that the projections are correct. If this thing doesn't turn at all this will be worse than Andrew was for Florida.

[Ksyrup]

I still don't see this thing moving off its WNW track. If that track doesn't change at some point in the next 12 hours, a move NW and even N is not going to spare NO. It's just like when it went through South Florida, and they kept projecting the Florida Panhandle. It was still moving W and WSW, making that a virtual impossibility. I knew by Friday morning that thing wasn't coming anywhere near us.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

I'm watching the webcast from WWL right now, and this is really the first time in my 28 years that I've seen a newscast so serious about a storm. I don't mean that they're never serious, but everyone is being very blunt and direct about this one. There are constant warnings that southeastern Louisiana will not avoid this storm. This storm is not going to completely miss the area. New Orleans will not be spared miraculously again. It may not be a direct hit, and they make sure to say that they don't know yet, but something is definitely going to happen in New Orleans. It's not a matter of whether the storm will affect the city; it's a matter of how strongly the storm will affect the city. I have never heard a newscast urge everyone to evacuate like this. It's 4am here right now, and I meant to go to bed two hours ago, but I can't stop watching this. I think my family down there has evacuated, but now I'm just watching because New Orleans still feels like home to me. I'm so scared that I can't sleep, and I'm over a thousand miles away. Like I said earlier, I had only evacuated once in my entire life, and to be honest, my wife had to drag me away (she's originally from Memphis, so every nearby hurricane spooked her, since these were new experiences for her). I've never really been scared of a hurricane before. This morning, I am.

Please, everybody down there, leave. Urge your extended family and friends to leave. I know the people on this forum are taking it seriously, but please do everything you can for the people you love. I know that there will be people who just won't go, but maybe hearing from the right people will help them make the right decision. I am really scared for my hometown right now, because many people there don't know how to handle this. They think they know, but they don't know. Too many years and too many storms have led to that "crying wolf" effect that LloydLungs mentioned, but now is not the time to be brave. Now is not the time.

I felt the anguish in your post Pumpy, hope you slept well.

Everyone in Katrina's path, you'll be in my thoughts and prayers. Best of luck and definitely keep us posted.

[Buccaneer]

Please prepare to send aid and help in anyway you can. Also pray that the levees will hold.

Pumpy: I had missed that, sorry. How are you adjusting to life in the Northeast? Will you be ok once the winter storms start?

[Doug5984]

They have cancelled all classes monday at UL-Lafayette- for them to do that it cant be good. They never call off class, especially this early in advance.

[JeffR]

Holy crap, I've been through a few hurricane watches in Florida but have never seen the National Weather Service put out a bulletin like this:

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz062 (scroll down)

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-
ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-
ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

[Tigercat]

That sounds like a forecaster at the national weather center went off his meds and started having a panic attack. "THEY ARE ALL GOING TO DIE! NOTHING WILL SURVIVE! WE ARE ALL DOOMED!" For God's sake NO is enough inland and this thing will weaken enough right before impact that the city won't experience anything greater than 150MPH winds sustained, maybe not worse than 125. And thats even with a direct hit. Horrible, yes, but not enough to knock down buildings that were built with possible hurricane force winds in mind.

[-Mojo Jojo-]

Umm.. holy crap!! Best wishes for everyone involved.

[Buccaneer]

Forget Iraq and wasteful pork spending projects, let the Federal Govt put our money to where it is most needed.

[bronconick]

Wow.

Good luck guys.

[Solecismic]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15

This board is fascinating, though they're certainly more doomsday than most of us are used to, as I would expect from professionals and dedicated amateurs.

Katrina had better make a sharper NNW turn in the next couple of hours, or this is worst possible scenario for New Orleans. I wonder if the Saints have an alternative home site for the first half of this season.

[Tigercat]

There is talk of Saints games in Tiger Stadium if necessary. BR is only an hour and a half away. Tiger Stadium has its own problems right now though, the west upper deck was torn down at the end of last year to build a new upper deck on that side to match the new upper deck that was put on the East last year. The construction has experienced delays, however. And the best case scenario before this hurricane was that MOST of the thousands of people with season tickets in that upper deck would be seated for North Texas and Arizona State, with all seats available by the LSU Tennessee game. Who knows what that timetable becomes when 70-80mph winds hit the construction site. Hopefully Tiger Stadium is useable for LSU at least by the first game of the season.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

If the worst happens then New Orleans as we know it will be completely different.

[ScottVib]

I'm so conflicted... the meteorologist part of me is just fascinated and in awe of the size and scale of the storm, the satellite images showing a textbook hurricane, etc.

On the other hand, the human part of me is simply horrified at the potential for shear destruction that this storm possesses, if it continues on it's current heading.

[Solecismic]

184 mph, pressure down to 902 mb. And much bigger than Camille in 1969. I hope people in low-lying areas aren't dumb enough to think they can ride this one out.

I also hope the National Guard is already being mobilized to bring supplies to shelters. This is just far beyond anything I've ever seen.

[ScottVib]

Was just about to post the same stats Jim. Simply Amazing.

This indicates that the storm is likely still strengthening. If it hit at this pressure it would be the second lowest pressure hurricane to strike the US. (to the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935)

Edit - BTW the 184 mph is the flight level winds. The surface wind speeds will be slightly lower (probably still around 175).

[Ksyrup]

I know this isn't something to joke about, but I found this post over at that site Jim posted to be pretty funny:


"Maybe if we put it in terms southerners can understand more ppl will evacuate....

Hurricane Katrina packing NASCAR speed winds."

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by CHEMICAL SOLDIER

If the worst happens then New Orleans as we know it will be completely different.

Much of the charm of New Orleans lies in the older French Quarter as well as St. Charles. They have survived before but I fear that they could lose their authentic historicalness upon rebuilding and renovations.

I do wonder, as a cartographer, how the coastline will look afterwards.

[Airhog]

Thanks for the link up there Solecismic. I enjoyed reading that forum, they seem to know what they are talking about at least...

[sachmo71]

Hopefully, the troops will get everyone out. I'm starting to freak out a little, because when that hurricane was supposed to hit NO last year, my former brother-in-law was going to ride it out. His reasoning for this was because he didn't have homeowners insurance. Good luck holding the roof down, dumbass. Unfortunately, his daughters were going to stay with him to "help" him.

[Tigercat]

If y'all will notice, the track continues to inch East on the track at the top, all the computer models seem to be making this gradual shift. I think this sucker will hit hardest in just about the same section of Mississippi as Camille did.

I have personal conflicting emotions about this, it will spare the houses of family members in New Orleans, but I have no doubt that such a hit would destroy my grandparents house. (They lost their first house in Mississippi to Camille's 25 foot tidal surge.) But better property than loss of life.

[ScottVib]

The hotels evacuation now is sending those inside to the 5th floor or higher. - MSNBC

(Hotels were exempted from the evacuation order as tourists were unable to get flights out and there weren't any rental cars left available)

[ScottVib]

Model forecasted wind speed at landfall - 179 mph at Sunrise tomorrow.
The center near New Orleans at around noon.

From the NHC.

[finkenst]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/.../si.klix.shtml

[Tigercat]

I'm really cautiously optomistic that this won't be a direct N.O. hit. I think
plaqumines parish will get the first major hit. East New Orleans and Slidell
might be hit significantly too. East New Orleans won't get tons of water
damage, but wind damage could mean some loss of lives; water and wind could
be a problem for Slidell. Then the storm moves up into coastal Mississippi, where
we can only hope that MS residents evacuated from the coast. Tidal Surge
could be as high as 28 feet.

Here are some projection models:

[JonInMiddleGA]

The NWS forecast advisory contains language that I've never seen them use before.
I'm no weather expert by any means, but I spent 13 years reading forecasts a half dozen times a day from NWS & know their routine (and their not-routine) phrasing like the back of my hand. I was pretty worried before, go ahead & upgrade me to OMG. Like someone else said, it looks to me like there's still a chance it'll at least turn enough to avoid a direct hit, but if it doesn't, I think we're looking at destruction like we've never seen here period.

[GoldenEagle]

My sister's fiancée is in the National Guard and he is not sure yet if he is going to get called up. They usually let him out of stuff like this because he is in college and already done a tour in Iraq. We will see though as they may have to have him.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Originally Posted by ScottVib

The hotels evacuation now is sending those inside to the 5th floor or higher. - MSNBC

(Hotels were exempted from the evacuation order as tourists were unable to get flights out and there weren't any rental cars left available)

OMG! Wouldnt that leave them vulnerable to projectiles and such when it hits?

[fantastic flying froggies]

Hope everything turns out all right...

Good luck to everyone down there.

[ScottVib]

The storm is still following the forecasted track taking it into New Orleans. If you notice the majority of the tracks are right on or just to the East of New Orleans. Just to the East is not a good thing either.. as this allows the winds to push water into Lake Ponchitrain. (In fact the worst case would be a storm that hit from the South Southeast, allowing the winds and surge both to come right into the Gulf access for the Mississippi and into Lake Ponchitrain)

This storm is so massive that even if the eye doesn't score a direct hit, the impact will be incredible throughout the area. Looking at the tracks and the models, it looks like landfall in Louisiana, the eye tracking between New Orleans and the Mississippi border.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

I didnt realize how BIG this Hurricane was until I looked at a Natl geographic map and comparing it to the Hurricane. That thing has to be 400 miles across.

[ScottVib]

People are idiots. Listening to the locals on the Fox News channel is frightening. At least this idiot has no clue what is about to happen. He doesn't feel that he's vulnerable in New Orleans, expects it to miss like everyone else. He figures the pumps will work and everything will be ok.

If these people don't leave the death toll will be significant (unnecessarily). All you can do is warn and hope.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by CHEMICAL SOLDIER

OMG! Wouldnt that leave them vulnerable to projectiles and such when it hits?

I'm sure they will keep them in interior hallways without windows. The biggest threat will be the water and drowning. Better to have them up high and eliminate the most severe threat even if it makes them more vulnerable to some other threats.

The NWS statement is ominous. They pulled out the Charlie warning from last year and it was much less dire although still severe. It certainly could be that they are using the strongest language possible to motivate as many people as possible to leave even if the disaster scenario is remote.

Maybe someone here with more knowledge and understanding can clarify this for me -- thus far, it sounds as though the storm is continuing to push further west before finally heading north, making landfall in New Orleans or slightly west more likely. Is it correct that I understand that the damage is more severe from the eye and to the east than it is to the west of the storm? If so, it's not making the forecast any more cheery for the city.

I hope this thing weakens somehow.

[Mr. Sparkle]

Originally Posted by ScottVib

People are idiots. Listening to the locals on the Fox News channel is frightening. At least this idiot has no clue what is about to happen. He doesn't feel that he's vulnerable in New Orleans, expects it to miss like everyone else. He figures the pumps will work and everything will be ok.

If these people don't leave the death toll will be significant (unnecessarily). All you can do is warn and hope.

Seriously. It's ridiculous. My g/f is from Louisiana, about 2 hours from NO, and up until this morning, she was of the same mindset. Luckily, her brother who lives there got out a couple days ago. He's pretty much resigned to the mindset that he's not going to go back to much of anything.

[SunDevil]

I was under the impression that New Orleans was below sea level, and that it was gradually sinking, and in about 100 years that city would be under water. How does this Hurricane not speed up this scenario? And how does New Orleans under that much water 20/25 feet ever get rebuilt?

[Buccaneer]

This is almost like anticipating a major terrorist event - only we know when and where.

[ScottVib]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Maybe someone here with more knowledge and understanding can clarify this for me -- thus far, it sounds as though the storm is continuing to push further west before finally heading north, making landfall in New Orleans or slightly west more likely. Is it correct that I understand that the damage is more severe from the eye and to the east than it is to the west of the storm? If so, it's not making the forecast any more cheery for the city.

I hope this thing weakens somehow.

Actually it's still on the same track. The last few images hint at the expected more northerly jog, which should take it towards New Orleans or just to the East.

The wind does in fact tend to be worse on the eastern side of the storm, this is also the side that tends to have more tornadic activity.

In the case of New Orleans topography, it's actually slightly better for New Orleans if the storm were to come ashore to the west of the city. A westerly jog would force less water up the mouth of the Mississippi and into Lake Ponchitrain, reducing the flooding risk.

However the likely track presently is an area from New Orleans to the east (about to the Mississippi - Louisisana border)


Simply put this storm is massive. At this point it is nearly certain the storm will hit shore as a category 5 (weakest case a very potent Cat. 4). It's almost a certainty that New Orleans on east to Gulfport, Biloxi, Passcagoula, and even Mobile will receive a very significant impact from this storm.

BTW some hotels are trying to keep people a bit lower then the 5th floor, depending on the elevation of the hotel and it's architecture.

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

This is almost like anticipating a major terrorist event - only we know when and where.

Good analogy... unfortunately, some are still sticking around.

[ScottVib]

One of the scariest things for me so far was watching the various political officials who would typically be trying to keep their citizens calm, so visibly impacted and scared of this storm.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

My sister's fiancée is in the National Guard and he is not sure yet if he is going to get called up. They usually let him out of stuff like this because he is in college and already done a tour in Iraq. We will see though as they may have to have him.

My brother-in-law is a Florida Highway Patrol officer just north of West Palm Beach, and he's been told to get ready to go to LA to assist in the aftermath.

[Cringer]

This is f'ing nuts.

I look at the pictures shown on TV, and they need to be doing a lot more then they are, to get people out of there. Why are most of the pictures I am seeing of the of only one side of the freeway being open? They say all lanes are open for out bound only, but it sure doesn't look like it. If it is just in the New Orleans area then it needs to be drastically expanded to about a 100 miles radius. Screw any inbound traffic.

This is the worst place I can imagine this happening. And all the roads out are some of the last places I would want to get stuck in such a situation. To much damn water, to many damn bridges.

Good luck to everyone. I hope it isn't as bad as it looks. I drive through this area all the time and it is an area I enjoy going through. I hate to see this happen.

[wbatl1]

I was looking at the map Skydog stickyed. When is the projected landfall? It looks really close, but these things don't move too fast, do they?