So The Superbowl is Over (Unofficial 2007 NFL Draft/Free Agency Thread)

[stevew]

Wooot!!!!

Steelers signed a RFA Punter. Try to match that, SF, after we put all kinds of poison pills in there!!!.

j/k, I have no idea what the contract structure is like.

[Arles]

I would hope a 2nd round pick at WR in this class could beat out Welker long term and probably match him this season. He looks like a Tim Dwight without the explosiveness. A total of 687 yards and 1 TD for 60+ catches seems like pretty poor production.

You could probably get one of Robert Meachem, Anthony Gonzalez or Craig Davis with that second round pick. And not only would he be a heck of a lot cheaper than Welker, he would have a much higher upside.

[SFL Cat]

I think the attraction of Welker is that he is a total effort guy who plays way beyond expectations.

[Sublime 2]

One rumor going around now is that the Pats already signed Stallworth. This, despite other rumors saying he's still visiting the Titans and other teams. I hope if it's true, it's just a one year deal. But if it is true, he becomes a legitimate #1 receiver IF he can stay healthy.

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by Arles

You could probably get one of Robert Meachem, Anthony Gonzalez or Craig Davis with that second round pick. And not only would he be a heck of a lot cheaper than Welker, he would have a much higher upside.

Most mocks (and that's obv not saying much) have Meachem in the first round and Gonzalez in the early second at least. I'm haven't read much on Davis, but I do like Welker, and his complete game. He takes Maroney out of the KR/PR job and is a solid #2 receiver.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

One rumor going around now is that the Pats already signed Stallworth. This, despite other rumors saying he's still visiting the Titans and other teams. I hope if it's true, it's just a one year deal. But if it is true, he becomes a legitimate #1 receiver IF he can stay healthy.

I'd be pretty surprised if he signed a one-year deal in this market, where he is one of the better FAs (of any position) out there.

[Sublime 2]

I agree and the numbers going around was 6yrs/30 million. I can't imagine this isn't backloaded, if true. That seems like an aweful lot for an injury prone receiver. But I do think he'd become the best receiver (maybe second behind Branch) Brady has thrown to.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

This does seem like a very deep draft for wide receivers, though, doesn't it? You would think they'd be able to get somebody good in the second round.

I'm not really complaining ... Welker just doesn't excite me much.

YEah, it's deep of mediocre to good WR prospects after the first couple. Basically, the thinking here is that you're going to get the same kind of WR prospect in the late 3rd round as you will in the late 2nd round. Don't forget too that they are looking at probably 3rd rounder and another later one as compensatory picks. There's enough there to grab a good WR prospect in the 3rd round if you have to.

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

YEah, it's deep of mediocre to good WR prospects after the first couple. Basically, the thinking here is that you're going to get the same kind of WR prospect in the late 3rd round as you will in the late 2nd round. Don't forget too that they are looking at probably 3rd rounder and another later one as compensatory picks. There's enough there to grab a good WR prospect in the 3rd round if you have to.

A little OT but how do compensatory picks exactly work?

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by Arles

I would hope a 2nd round pick at WR in this class could beat out Welker long term and probably match him this season. He looks like a Tim Dwight without the explosiveness. A total of 687 yards and 1 TD for 60+ catches seems like pretty poor production.

You could probably get one of Robert Meachem, Anthony Gonzalez or Craig Davis with that second round pick. And not only would he be a heck of a lot cheaper than Welker, he would have a much higher upside.

As stated before, he had Joey Harrington throwing to him. 67 catches is damn good. Better than anyone on the Pats last season, and that was with Tom Brady throwing them the ball.

As for the guys you mentioned, first, none of them will be around by late second round. Second, I think they are all still crapshoots. I'll take Welker over them.

[Arles]

Eigh, I'm not big on 5-9 receivers with low YPC and few TDs. He's not going to be much of a factor in the red zone and he can't stretch the field. I think there will be many WRs in the 2nd and third round better (and cheaper) than Welker (throw in Steve Smith from USC as well).

On other news, Daniel Graham got paid:

"Graham ended up with a five-year, $30 million deal from the Broncos that included $15 million in guarantees."

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

A little OT but how do compensatory picks exactly work?

Some complex formula, but basically it breaks down to the contracts of the guys you lost via FA(guys who you didnt cut) compared to the value of FA contracts you signed(guys who weren't cut). Players essentially offset each other and whatever your net remainder contracts end up being, get slotted in some formula. Then you get a pick in a corresponding round, which you can't trade.

So, if you lose 3 FA's, one signs a 6 year 42m deal, one a 3/9m, and one a 4/8m deal, and sign one guy to a 3/12m deal.

You'd most likely get a 3rd for the 6/42 guy, and your signed 3/12 guy would offset your other two losses. Although there may be enough of a remainder there so that you'd get a 7th for net value lost....something to that effect.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by stevew

Some complex formula, but basically it breaks down to the contracts of the guys you lost via FA(guys who you didnt cut) compared to the value of FA contracts you signed(guys who weren't cut). Players essentially offset each other and whatever your net remainder contracts end up being, get slotted in some formula. Then you get a pick in a corresponding round, which you can't trade.

So, if you lose 3 FA's, one signs a 6 year 42m deal, one a 3/9m, and one a 4/8m deal, and sign one guy to a 3/12m deal.

You'd most likely get a 3rd for the 6/42 guy, and your signed 3/12 guy would offset your other two losses. Although there may be enough of a remainder there so that you'd get a 7th for net value lost....something to that effect.

Hmm, that may be part of it, but one important factor is the performance of the players as well, including games started I believe. Suffice it to say, that the NFL has never made the formula public.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by Arles

On other news, Daniel Graham got paid:

"Graham ended up with a five-year, $30 million deal from the Broncos that included $15 million in guarantees."

Wow. That is shocking. He is a very good blocking TE that is an average/above average receiver. He is not Antonio Gates. There is no way the Pats would have paid anywhere close to that and I would have killed them if they had.

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

Wow. That is shocking. He is a very good blocking TE that is an average/above average receiver. He is not Antonio Gates. There is no way the Pats would have paid anywhere close to that and I would have killed them if they had.

Agreed, Kyle Brady completely fills the Graham role of blocking TE and Watson is just what he was last year, a hopefully premier receiving TE.

[bhlloy]

So wait... 10 million guaranteed for a number 2/3 WR and return man good, 15 million guaranteed for one of the top 5-10 TE's in the game bad? Rose tinted glasses are fun, I guess.

Arles is right, there is no way Steve Smith isn't there at the end of the second round and you can pay him 750k a year to do the same job.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

So wait... 10 million guaranteed for a number 2/3 WR and return man good, 15 million guaranteed for one of the top 5-10 TE's in the game bad? Rose tinted glasses are fun, I guess.

Arles is right, there is no way Steve Smith isn't there at the end of the second round and you can pay him 750k a year to do the same job.

Huh? First, that's a 50% increase in guaranteed money. Second, Welker also gets 3 million less a season (50% of Graham). Third, you are smoking something if you think Graham is a top 5-10 TE in the league. Fourth, Pats have greater need for a WR than a TE. Graham wasn't even the best TE on the Pats for crying out loud.

The Broncos just paid #1 WR price for a blocking TE.

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

So wait... 10 million guaranteed for a number 2/3 WR and return man good, 15 million guaranteed for one of the top 5-10 TE's in the game bad? Rose tinted glasses are fun, I guess.

I don't see Graham as a top 10 TE at all. He's solid, but the Pats lose nothing by putting Kyle Brady in his place. In fact Brady has proven to be quite a bit more durable than Graham, and he's a lot older.

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

I was trying to figure out which part of your post was a joke, and I guess it's the first part, because the second part is completely true.

The first part was from Lelie's point of view.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

Pats have greater need for a WR than a TE.

Understatement of the year.

[bhlloy]

I'm an idiot. Graham clearly isn't one of the top 5-10 TE's in the league. I was thinking of Ben Watson.

I still think the Pats overpaid a lot to get Welker, given the WR's that are going to be available in the second.

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

As stated before, he had Joey Harrington throwing to him. 67 catches is damn good. Better than anyone on the Pats last season, and that was with Tom Brady throwing them the ball.

As for the guys you mentioned, first, none of them will be around by late second round. Second, I think they are all still crapshoots. I'll take Welker over them.

I know nothing about Welker other than his name is similar to the guy that voices Freddie of Scooby-Doo.

But the point of going from catching balls thrown by Joey to catching from Brady is excellent. Hell, the fact that he could stay on the field at all after catching a few of those "look-behind-ya" passes shows that he might actually be Superman!

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

Hmm, that may be part of it, but one important factor is the performance of the players as well, including games started I believe. Suffice it to say, that the NFL has never made the formula public.

Yeah, i forgot to add that.

[beargrowlz]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

Wow. That is shocking. He is a very good blocking TE that is an average/above average receiver. He is not Antonio Gates. There is no way the Pats would have paid anywhere close to that and I would have killed them if they had.

I'd disagree a little bit, though the gist of your point is well taken. I think Graham is an outstanding blocking TE but no better than average receiver. I've always held my breath whenever they threw to Graham. If it was a nearly impossible catch to make, he stood a chance to make the catch. But if it was a routine, normal throw - which most Brady passes are - I've seen him drop too many of those to be comfortable with him as a receiver.

But a very, very good blocker as you say.

Good for him though that he got a big payday. He works hard.

[stevew]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_yl...=tsn&type=lgns

Article about compensation picks.

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by stevew

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_yl...=tsn&type=lgns

Article about compensation picks.

Awesome thanks!! Always been confused by this, and now I get it!

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by stevew

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_yl...=tsn&type=lgns

Article about compensation picks.

It's good info, but the correlation between comp picks and success maybe somewhat reverse of that the author says. He says comp picks lead to wins. I would say wins lead to comp picks. Players on successful teams are ripe for FA signings away from the team, which leads to getting the comp. pick. Some are willing to sign a backup O-lineman from the Pats (Tom Ashworth), but no one is too interested in a backup on the Browns. I never realized Brady was a comp. pick though.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

It's good info, but the correlation between comp picks and success maybe somewhat reverse of that the author says. He says comp picks lead to wins. I would say wins lead to comp picks. Players on successful teams are ripe for FA signings away from the team, which leads to getting the comp. pick. Some are willing to sign a backup O-lineman from the Pats (Tom Ashworth), but no one is too interested in a backup on the Browns. I never realized Brady was a comp. pick though.

Good teams tend to have a lot of good players, and therefore have to lose some to FA just cause the money is not there to pay everyone. Which pretty much ties into your theory.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

[Stallworth] becomes a legitimate #1 receiver IF he can stay healthy.

That's going to be written on his tombstone.

I feel for the guy, because he does seem to get those injuries (hamstring, etc.) that end up nagging him. I don't think that he has ever been healthy for a full season.

That said, from everything I have seen, he is a really nice guy (especially for a WR), and I hope that he does manage to get paid and land on a team that is a good fit for him.

[Ksyrup]

Denver loves having a solid TE to catch those passes on the QB bootlegs. I guess Putzier hasn't developed as quickly as they hoped? I don't know, seems like an awful lot of money for someone who isn't going to morph into Shannon Sharpe overnight.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Randy Moss is the big rumor, but I'd much prefer Joe Horn. Fits the system, a proven #1 a couple years ago with a couple years left in the tank, especially if he's got the chip on his shoulder from "being disrespected" by a bad organization for the past 7/8 years. Shades of Corey Dillon when we got him from the Bengals. (And before any NO fans jump on me, I think Sean Payton is a great coach and your team is finally going in the right direction, but before last offseason you were pretty much a mess. And I blame Tom Benson.)

No disrespect taken. Calling the Benson/Haslett/Brooks Saints anything other than a "bad organization" abuses the English language beyond all recognition.

As I said earlier in this thread, any team that can sign him to a contract without a lot of guaranteed money is possibly getting a great player for a year. In 2004, he got 1,400 yards and 11 touchdowns with Aaron freaking Brooks throwing to him. Adjusting those numbers to account for the Aaron Brooks factor, we can see that had he had Tom Brady throwing to him, he would have gotten eleventy-billion yards and infinity touchdowns.

Joe Horn also, more than other players, has always taken professional stuff personally. So I think that the "shoulder chip" factor cannot be overlooked and you are right to focus on it.

All that said, I wonder if the Patriots are the best fit for him. It's all rumor and speculation, but apparently Joe Horn really likes being a #1 receiver, and I wonder if he will be able to check his ego at the door--especially for a team like the Patriots that will demand it. Saints fans who went to the games said that during the last few games when he was sitting out injured, he just sat by himself on the bench and sulked--in comparison to other injured/inactive players who were still participating in sideline huddles, coaching, etc. Of course, that kind of sulking might indicate a guy who just needed a change of scenery, or it might indicate a guy who won't play well with others if he isn't the alpha dog on the offense. Hard to tell.

I actually see him ending up in Atlanta. He will get to play the Saints at least twice and will get a situation similar to what he had in New Orleans--no real leader on offense, so he can take the "superstar/leader" role on for himself.

All that said, he sure was a great player for us and really was the face of the franchise for quite a few years there. I'm sad that he didn't get to retire a Saint.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Denver loves having a solid TE to catch those passes on the QB bootlegs. I guess Putzier hasn't developed as quickly as they hoped? I don't know, seems like an awful lot of money for someone who isn't going to morph into Shannon Sharpe overnight.

Putzier was traded last year to the Texans Ksyrup. The guy who hasn't developed, evidently, is Tony Schefler. I think they spent a second round pick on the guy and he seemed to play well a lot of last year, but he blocks like crap.

Alexander is an OK blocker, but nothing special. Graham is a pretty solid blocker and is a better receiver than Alexander. Maybe Schefler will end up being the third down TE and Graham will be the first and second down guy who can block well and catch a few passes in the meantime.

All that said, I think they overpaid.

[Ksyrup]

That's who I was thinking of - Schefler, the rookie from Western Michigan or something like that?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by TroyF

All that said, I think they overpaid.

Before Free Agency started, a few websites had Graham as one of the possible value picks of Free Agency. The idea, of course, being that he was a very good blocker and a decent receiver and some team might be able to pick him up on the cheap and end up making a smart play.

Of course, once everyone starts thinking of a guy as an underrated value pickup, then he, at some point, morphs into an overrated overpaid guy. I think that teams forget that part of what made him attractive in the first place was the idea that he would come cheap (either in terms of money or trade or draft picks or whatever).

Call it the Ben Wallace effect.

[Suburban Rhythm]

Are there any OLB's left on the market for the Steelers?

I am starting the grass roots effort to have them look at Georges Laraque...if A Gates can go from basketball to football, why can't big George make a switch too?

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Before Free Agency started, a few websites had Graham as one of the possible value picks of Free Agency. The idea, of course, being that he was a very good blocker and a decent receiver and some team might be able to pick him up on the cheap and end up making a smart play.

Of course, once everyone starts thinking of a guy as an underrated value pickup, then he, at some point, morphs into an overrated overpaid guy. I think that teams forget that part of what made him attractive in the first place was the idea that he would come cheap (either in terms of money or trade or draft picks or whatever).

Call it the Ben Wallace effect.

Oh, I get why they did it. Seattle was after him hard as well and if Denver wanted him, they had to give a big offer.

In the end, I do think they overpaid. I also think if you are going to overpay anyone other than a superstar, Graham is the type of guy you do it to. He's a hard worker with a good attitude.

If he were the lone pass catching TE, he'd probably average around 45 to 50 catches a year. He'll block and isn't going to throw a fit if he's not getting the ball thrown to him. I can also see the Broncos using some 2 TE sets with Walker and Marshall at the WR spots while Graham and Schefler man the TE spots.

I think that'd be a pretty dangerous formation. You'd have 4 big TE/WR. You could run with a lot of success out of that formation. You would also have the ability for any of the four pass catchers to stretch the defense. (both Schefler and Graham have the ability to go deep over the middle)

I can live with the few guys we've signed so far. It looks like Shanahan is giving Cutler some more options on offense. The way our offense looked last year, that can only be a good thing.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

Agreed, Kyle Brady completely fills the Graham role of blocking TE and Watson is just what he was last year, a hopefully premier receiving TE.

Good luck with Watson. I happen to think he's highly overrated. Guy disappeared for half the season last year and to me doesn't have any extra fight in him.

I think Thomas might be the better player eventually. Everyone wants to put Watson in the mold of Gates. He needs to step it up.

[AlexB]

As I posted when the Welker thing first broke, sorry to see him go, and the contract isn't too bad for the first three years - he'll be cut/restructured then anyway.

For some of the questions as to how good he is, to me Welker = Wayne Chrebet = Ricky Proehl, guts and effort player, good athlete, tough & will be quickly become a fan favourite.

[Ksyrup]

He's no Tom Waddle, though.

[beargrowlz]

Pats re-signed special teams captain Larry Izzo.

Not real earth shattering, but a solid gunner.


Cheers.

[FBPro]

Sweet, glad to see this:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2791102

Horn signs w/ Falcons.

[Toddzilla]

D'oh - so much for the Ravens getting him back on the cheap - looks like Jamal Lewis signed with the Brownies....

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200....ap/index.html

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I actually see him ending up in Atlanta. He will get to play the Saints at least twice and will get a situation similar to what he had in New Orleans--no real leader on offense, so he can take the "superstar/leader" role on for himself.

Well played, Sir.

I like Daniel Graham. I can certainly see why we didn't try to sign him too hard as we had cover in that area and more pressing needs, but I'll be rooting for him (not even gonna qualify that with an 'except against NE' since Denver beats us every time anyway). He does tend to drop easy balls and gets nagging injuries frequently, but he's probably the best blocking TE in the league, makes some amazing catches (that build the hype and make the easy drops that much worse) and by all accounts is one of the best citizens in the NFL. Even donated a kidney to his sister with no guarantee he'd be able to keep playing,and now gets to go back homem at least where he played college ball.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

D'oh - so much for the Ravens getting him back on the cheap - looks like Jamal Lewis signed with the Brownies....

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200....ap/index.html

No problem, they traded two 3rds and 7th for Willis McGahee (which sure seems low)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2791831

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by molson

No problem, they traded two 3rds and 7th for Willis McGahee (which sure seems low)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2791831

guy is way overrated

you want 3.8 ypc then he is your man

[gottimd]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

guy is way overrated

you want 3.8 ypc then he is your man

And if you want 3.4 YPC?

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

guy is way overrated

you want 3.8 ypc then he is your man

Because that Bills line is so great to run behind?

[molson]

Originally Posted by gottimd

And if you want 3.4 YPC?

Jamal Lewis?

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Here is some more info on how comp. picks work, and in particular, the Pats situation. From an interview with Scott Pioli:

“We now have six picks and sometime between now and the draft, they’ll be announcing compensatory picks. We anticipate for all the free agents we lost last year that we have another four picks coming to us, compensatory picks. We’re looking at, on draft day, at this point having 10 picks. Four of those picks, compensatory picks, will be picks we get that can not be traded. … We’re projecting those will be anywhere between a fourth [rounder] and sixth [rounder], because they have a very complicated formula that seems to be changing every year in the league office that is based on a number of different factors that include the amount of money that the contract is signed for by the player when they leave through unrestricted free agency, but there is also a component of play-time during the season that is factored in there. We know we’re going to have a seventh and we’re projecting two six’s and just trying to figure out what that David Givens pick will be, as his play time was affected by his injury this year.”

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by gottimd

And if you want 3.4 YPC?

You would probably be looking at Edge then. He nailed it right on the nose last year. Impressive.