The Trump Presidency – 2016

[CrimsonFox]

I have a Korean friend that just reported on facebook that today they were actually attacked. So he's driving on the highway and suddenly a car starts swerving into him and literally tries to run him off the road. The guy goes around him and starts yelling "chink" at him. THen gets ahead of him and slams on his breaks. THen goes to the other side and his girlfriendwhatever throws a bottle at him through the window and hits him.

Luckily he recorded the guy's license plate and has been to the cops already.

But man I feel so bad for him. TIred of trump supporters like this being empowered by him to do this crap

[spleen1015]

[NobodyHere]

I find this funny

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wire..._headlines_hed

[Edward64]

First doubts I've read about a big second stimulus (but much smaller stimulus still possible). Shutdown negotiations are not going to be tied to stimulus, jobs and payroll reports not as bad as feared etc.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/an...ays-2020-09-04

Friday’s jobs report makes it more likely that Washington won’t deliver another big coronavirus aid package before the November election, according to some analysts.

The better-than-expected report showed the U.S. economy regained 1.4 million jobs in August as unemployment fell to 8.4% from 10.2%.

“For those who, after having voted to explode the budget deficit, have suddenly remembered that they don’t like government welfare payments, this report could strengthen their resolve to deny another package gets passed, since the need is not nearly as great as it had been,” said Joel Naroff, president and chief economist at Naroff Economics, in a note.

The report on nonfarm payrolls “also undercuts the arguments of those who support additional massive government stimulus, that the economy is a disaster,” Naroff added. “It is, when looked at on an absolute basis, but relatively speaking, it is not as big a disaster as it had been.”

Henrietta Treyz, director of economic policy research at Veda Partners, told clients in a note that they should “assume” another aid package is “not happening.” She said she’s downbeat on the chances for more fiscal stimulus both because of Friday’s jobs report and because of the news late Thursday that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have agreed to try to avoid a federal government shutdown.

Pelosi, a California Democrat, and Mnuchin, one of the Trump administration’s negotiators, are aiming to avoid a shutdown when current funding expires on Sept. 30 by working on a “clean” continuing resolution rather than allowing the issue to be linked to pandemic aid talks.

If the Pelosi-Mnuchin deal holds and a continuing resolution funding the government passes, “there is no other must-pass legislation for another stimulus bill to hitch a ride on before Congress recesses for the election,” Treyz wrote.

In addition, “Republicans in the U.S. Senate are already very uncomfortable with the record high deficit spending Congress has agreed to this year, and a sub 10% unemployment rate gives them more reason to reject further deficit spending from here,” she said.

“We are formally dropping our odds of another $1.5T+ stimulus package this morning from their previous 60-75% rate to 20-30%,” Treyz said. She added that her firm believes “it is prudent for investors to position their portfolios with the assumption that no more federal stimulus will be delivered from Congress until after the November 3 election, at the earliest.”

No idea what's in the smaller version but assume/hope it's much more targeted towards those that need it.

Senate Republicans have been working on a “targeted” or “skinny” aid bill with a possible price tag of $500 billion.

Game of chicken continues.

[JPhillips]

How is it a game of chicken? Dems wanted to and did pass a bill and were willing to cut the total by 1/3 or more. The GOP didn't have the votes to pass anything.

[albionmoonlight]

Congressional Dems doing more to help Trump get re-elected than Republicans are.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Congressional Dems doing more to help Trump get re-elected than Republicans are.

Yep. The GOP should have jumped on the Dems bill. The long-term jobless numbers are just going to get worse between now and the election.

[JPhillips]

dola

There was a time when the President saying the Pentagon brass are warmongers in collusion with the military-industrial complex would have been pretty big news.

[BishopMVP]

I still think a 2nd round of direct payments will happen. Gives Trump a chance to send to send a check directly to people with his name attached to it but paid for by other people.

[Ryche]

The Census Bureau just hired over 300,000 people temporarily, so that makes the jobs number a bit less impressive.

[PilotMan]

In about 3 weeks about 100,000 (Bloomberg estimates about 130k) airline folks will be losing their jobs unless more is done. That'll be fun.

[JPhillips]

I'm not sure where the unemployment number settles, but it will be well north of 4%. Right now there are two trends, some temporary layoffs are returning to work while others are losing their jobs permanently. At some point basically everyone out of work now will fall into one of those categories and a temporary recession will look more typical.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

In about 3 weeks about 100,000 (Bloomberg estimates about 130k) airline folks will be losing their jobs unless more is done. That'll be fun.

Sorry you are going through this. There are rumors my company will reduce 5-10% sometime.

My company has said no travel through Q1, 2021. Exceptions have to go several levels up the food chain. All of my clients are okay with remote work even if we are in the middle of a project. I'm going to guess business travel will suck until a vaccine is produced or Q2 at the earliest.

I read an article that said hotels are like 50-60% below their year-of-year. My first thought was how can there been that many people staying at hotels to keep them at 50-40% booked.

Really no good answers for the travel, hospitality & cruise line industries right now.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Sorry you are going through this. There are rumors my company will reduce 5-10% sometime.

My company has said no travel through Q1, 2021. Exceptions have to go several levels up the food chain. All of my clients are okay with remote work even if we are in the middle of a project. I'm going to guess business travel will suck until a vaccine is produced or Q2 at the earliest.

I read an article that said hotels are like 50-60% below their year-of-year. My first thought was how can there been that many people staying at hotels to keep them at 50-40% booked.

Really no good answers for the travel, hospitality & cruise line industries right now.

As someone who works in food service, you'd be surprised (or maybe not) how many people in lower-income brackets who can't get approved for an apartment are long-term hotel tenants.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Congressional Dems doing more to help Trump get re-elected than Republicans are.

I honestly don't know to whose favor this will play and depends if there is a noticeable dive/stabilization in unemployment, GDP or markets while they are playing chicken. If there is a dive, it'll help Dems.

Because Trump signed the executive orders 3-4 weeks ago (?) he can hang his hat on something and say congress is playing games. I haven't read much from Biden on this, he seems to be willing to let Pelosi run with it. I think this is the right Biden strategy at least for now.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

As someone who works in food service, you'd be surprised (or maybe not) how many people in lower-income brackets who can't get approved for an apartment are long-term hotel tenants.

You're right, think I saw a segment on the long-stay hotels & motels. Admittedly, I was thinking of the Courtyards, Holiday Inns, Hilton Garden Inns etc.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Sorry you are going through this. There are rumors my company will reduce 5-10% sometime.

My company has said no travel through Q1, 2021. Exceptions have to go several levels up the food chain. All of my clients are okay with remote work even if we are in the middle of a project. I'm going to guess business travel will suck until a vaccine is produced or Q2 at the earliest.

I read an article that said hotels are like 50-60% below their year-of-year. My first thought was how can there been that many people staying at hotels to keep them at 50-40% booked.

Really no good answers for the travel, hospitality & cruise line industries right now.

I was demoted, taking a 20% paycut to start, our group is losing 22% of pilot jobs. Every new hire in the last 6 years is getting cut. There are threats that those job losses could double in the next few months. I still have a job, but my job is very threatened. The company only needs about a third of our pilot group to operate the schedules that they are currently flying. A furlough of 12-24 months would cost me between 150k and 400k. That's a lot of lost revenue. We are a one income family. Cuts that deep would take YEARS for the industry to recover from. It takes months to get pilots and planes back on line, and there's only a finite amount that can be returned per year. The annual amount of revenue that airlines pump into the economy (5% of GDP and 1.7 Trillion) would drop so much that the overall economy would be impacted.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I read an article that said hotels are like 50-60% below their year-of-year. My first thought was how can there been that many people staying at hotels to keep them at 50-40% booked.

I had the exact same thought.

I've seen hotels offering hotel rooms as office space for workers who can't go into work but don't want to or can't work well from home. Must be pennies on the dollar for the rooms and I'm not sure how many people would or can do that, but not a bad idea to try to fill some space that would otherwise go empty during the work week.

[JPhillips]

The Times story on the GOP finances is pretty amazing. I don't buy the idea that they will face a cash crunch, but spending 800 million since 2019 is shocking, in a where did all that money go, way.

I'll never understand why so many conservatives give their money to the grift machine.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The Times story on the GOP finances is pretty amazing. I don't buy the idea that they will face a cash crunch, but spending 800 million since 2019 is shocking, in a where did all that money go, way.

I'll never understand why so many conservatives give their money to the grift machine.

One of Trump's spokesmen, Jason Miller, has spent 800k in legal bills trying to avoid child support. He surely isn't the one paying those bills.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The Times story on the GOP finances is pretty amazing. I don't buy the idea that they will face a cash crunch, but spending 800 million since 2019 is shocking, in a where did all that money go, way.

I'll never understand why so many conservatives give their money to the grift machine.

This particular thread was mind boggling.

https://twitter.com/EricLiptonNYT/st...85784838541314

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This particular thread was mind boggling.

https://twitter.com/EricLiptonNYT/st...85784838541314

"Aides signed these super broad documents and then when things went sour with Trump (it happens sometimes)"

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This particular thread was mind boggling.

https://twitter.com/EricLiptonNYT/st...85784838541314

227 million passed through a single LLC with ties to the Trump family.

I doubt justice ever comes, but if it does...

[stevew]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

As someone who works in food service, you'd be surprised (or maybe not) how many people in lower-income brackets who can't get approved for an apartment are long-term hotel tenants.

Oh yeah totally this. I tried to wrap my head around how they afford it but who knows.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Edward64

You're right, think I saw a segment on the long-stay hotels & motels. Admittedly, I was thinking of the Courtyards, Holiday Inns, Hilton Garden Inns etc.

Even those. I have regular, long-term delivery customers who bounce from room to room every couple months at the Holiday Inn and Hilton Garden in town.

[JPhillips]

DoJ asks a federal court to let them take over the defense of Trump in his defamation lawsuit. They really are the President's personal lawyers now.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This particular thread was mind boggling.

https://twitter.com/EricLiptonNYT/st...85784838541314

I like how Parscale used a million dollars to promote his own tweets.

[Edward64]

Here's the McConnell proposal for the second stimulus totalling $300B. Far cry from the $2T to $3T that Pelosi wants. I think both sides are too far apart for anything quick to happen.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sen...bill-mcconnell

The slimmed-down package is expected to spend about $300 billion in federal aid, according to McConnell's office. The bill includes an extra $300 per week in unemployment benefits through Dec. 27 -- down from the $600 weekly boost that expired at the end of July -- a second round of Paycheck Protection Program funds to small businesses worth $258 billion, $105 billion for schools and colleges, and McConnell's liability protection plan that would limit lawsuits against businesses from employees or customers who contract COVID-19.

I'm generally okay with school vouchers but it has little/nothing to do with coronavirus impact. I think business immunity from coronavirus lawsuits (unless there is gross negligence or like) has to be in there.

A spokesperson for Pelosi said two poison pills are McConnell's plan for business immunity to shield them from coronavirus lawsuits and school vouchers.

[JPhillips]

This and the draft legislation making it illegal for the Fed to loan money starting in January make it clear the GOP is going to do everything possible to sabotage the economy if Biden wins.

Fuck the whole lot of them.

[sterlingice]

The business immunity shield can go to hell. If you want to risk people's lives, you pay the bills for it

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

The business immunity shield can go to hell. If you want to risk people's lives, you pay the bills for it

SI

I was thinking more of small business owners with the use case (and other similar variations) ... I go to restaurant, enter for pickup, see people waiting in line not social distancing, get a positive on coronavirus and then sue the restaurant.

EDIT: I think airlines (and airports & TSA) also. If I chose to fly, I shoulder that risk and shouldn't sue airlines unless there is gross negligence.

[JPhillips]

lol

Trump is still saying Mexico will pay for the wall and his crowds are still cheering it.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

The business immunity shield can go to hell. If you want to risk people's lives, you pay the bills for it

SI

^^^^^^ this... a thousand times this.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I was thinking more of small business owners with the use case (and other similar variations) ... I go to restaurant, enter for pickup, see people waiting in line not social distancing, get a positive on coronavirus and then sue the restaurant.

EDIT: I think airlines (and airports & TSA) also. If I chose to fly, I shoulder that risk and shouldn't sue airlines unless there is gross negligence.

I want a really /strict/ definition of small business if we're doing that. Expect every meat packing plant and refinery and Amazon warehouse to try to wriggle underneath this.

Hell, Texas Education Agency should be on the hook for the bullshit they're pulling with mandatory hours for virtual learning and trying to enforce kids in schools so Dan Patrick can say he sacrificed other kids at Trump's altar to open the economy. Of course the local schools will be the ones on the hook because little Jimmy didn't wear a mask all 8 hours of the day never mind that you're asking 7 year olds to do what fucking adults can't be bothered to.

In short, fuck Mitch and his liability shield.

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I want a really /strict/ definition of small business if we're doing that. Expect every meat packing plant and refinery and Amazon warehouse to try to wriggle underneath this.

I can see your point of view. I don't know the legalese but I can see a bunch of legit small businesses being crushed with threats of lawsuits.

Hell, Texas Education Agency should be on the hook for the bullshit they're pulling with mandatory hours for virtual learning and trying to enforce kids in schools so Dan Patrick can say he sacrificed other kids at Trump's altar to open the economy. Of course the local schools will be the ones on the hook because little Jimmy didn't wear a mask all 8 hours of the day never mind that you're asking 7 year olds to do what fucking adults can't be bothered to.

Haven't mentioned this to the wife.

But if she gets really seriously ill with coronavirus because of having to teach remotely from the school and because school is starting to bring back limited students, I would seriously explore options to sue.

If she catches it but recovers shortly after, no problem. There's been some teachers testing positive (before reopening to kids) and sent home. Apparently there is X weeks they get, after that they have to use their PTO, and then not sure what happens after that.

[sterlingice]

If you want to read more about it:
https://twitter.com/MaxKennerly/stat...39740663193601
Businesses are facing Covid-19 lawsuits. The GOP has a radical plan to shield them from liability. - Vox

The legal barriers are higher for plaintiffs wanting to sue than for businesses to sue anyone who brings a complaint against them. And they know they can try to sneak this by because it's too much minutiae to get into a sound bite. Mitch is going to be like "See... we tried to do a stimulus but this awful piece of legislation was a non-starter with the Dems. They're the ones standing in the way of your shiny new Trump check!"

"Well, it's the driver's fault for getting into a Ford Pinto. In fact we should be able to sue them for buying our shitty car. They should have known better"

So, again, fuck Mitch. I have no patience for this kind of willful disregard for human life in the pursuit of profits.

SI

[Edward64]

Here's more details on the business protection.

I think #1 and #2 makes sense. Not sure how #3 should be worded legalese. There should be a process to positively conclude that it was caused by employer somehow.

My example above was more protecting businesses from consumers whereas the bill seemed focus on protecting businesses from employees.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/polit...ill/index.html

Liability protections for employers

GOP skinny bill: Would provide protections for employers against liability in any coronavirus-related lawsuits brought by workers. Employers would not be held liable unless workers' claims met a stringent test. The bill states they must provide "clear and convincing evidence" that 1) the employer was not "making reasonable efforts" to comply with the latest pandemic-related safety guidance and standards; 2) that the employer was grossly negligent or willfully did something that caused "actual" exposure to the coronavirus; and 3) that the "actual" exposure caused personal injury to the workers.
In cases where workers allege they contracted Covid-19 through their workplace, they must provide a list of every place they went and every person they interacted with both inside and outside their home during the 14-day period before their onset of symptoms.

Previous GOP Bill: Contained similar language as the skinny bill.

House Heroes Bill: Democrats have opposed liability protections. Instead, they want to require new regulations from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration that would have employers create new plans to protect workers from exposure to Covid-19.

Protection for health care workers and businesses makes sense to me. The use case would be waiting in a dental office or having a cleaning, getting a flu shot etc.

Liability protection for health care workers and facilities

GOP skinny bill: Would protect health care providers from coronavirus-related liability actions unless the plaintiffs can prove gross negligence or willful misconduct. Also, resource or staffing shortages would not be considered willful misconduct or gross negligence.

Original GOP bill: Contains similar language as the skinny bill.

House Heroes Bill: Does not contain any liability protections for health care providers.

[miami_fan]

Isn't this the risk that the business demanded to take when they demanded the government to allow them to open up? I know several businesses had customers sign waivers before they would allow them in for just this reason. I am not sure why this would need to be in the bill anyway. I feel like this is the same as the concussion discussion in football. The argument against the employee is simple. They could have got it at work or they could have got it on their way to work when they stopped at Starbucks, or when they picked up the mail, or that one time they mistakenly shook hands with the co-worker on the way into the office etc.

[Edward64]

If Trump was a more traditional president, he should be seriously considered for the Peace prize for UAE-Israeli breakthrough. And certainly if he gets SA and other ME frenemies to join in "normalization" he should be way up there, just not sure UAE alone is enough to offset his other negatives.

Wiki says the critieria is "According to Nobel's will, the Peace Prize shall be awarded to the person who in the preceding year "shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses".

https://apnews.com/4ec1ce1ff6cf9d7321d9cad200650e2c

A far-right Norwegian lawmaker said Wednesday that he has nominated U.S. President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in the Middle East.

Christian Tybring-Gjedde, a member of the Norwegian Parliament for the far-right Progress Party, said Trump should be considered because of his work “for a peace agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel which opens up for possible peace in the Middle East.”

Israel and the United Arab Emirates agreed last month to a historic deal normalizing relations and are scheduled to sign it at a White House ceremony on Sept. 15.

“No matter how Trump acts at home and what he says at press conferences, he has absolutely a chance at getting the Nobel Peace Prize,” Tybring-Gjedde, told The Associated Press.
:
:
Former U.S. President Barack Obama was awarded the prize in 2009 only months into his first term, a move many felt was premature. The Norwegian committee said it honored Obama for his commitment to “seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”

[JPhillips]

I'll be surprised if it doesn't go to the opposition leader in Belarus.

And the Israel/UAE peace deal is mostly hype and seemed to come with an agreement for the U.S. to sell the UAE a shit ton of weapons.

[cuervo72]

I keep wondering when exactly the UAE was any threat to attack Israel.

[Atocep]

A memo went out dod wide today explaining the tax deferral and strongly encouraging everyone, especially young enlisted soldiers, to set up a discretionary allotment of 6.2% of their base pay. It goes on to reinforce the fact that you have to pay this money back so do not see it as or use it as extra income because from January through April of next year they can expect to pay 12.4% of their base pay in social security.

So if federal agencies are warning people not to spend this "extra" income then what exactly was the point again?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Atocep

A memo went out dod wide today explaining the tax deferral and strongly encouraging everyone, especially young enlisted soldiers, to set up a discretionary allotment of 6.2% of their base pay. It goes on to reinforce the fact that you have to pay this money back so do not see it as or use it as extra income because from January through April of next year they can expect to pay 12.4% of their base pay in social security.

So if federal agencies are warning people not to spend this "extra" income then what exactly was the point again?

What i remember reading is Trump was not authorized to remove the tax but only defer it, only congress can say remove it. The thought is once it is "deferred", congress will formalize it and say no need to pay it back.

So yeah, smart thing is to save the "deferred" taxes in case it needs to be repaid but I'm thinking it'll be made permanent.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Edward64

What i remember reading is Trump was not authorized to remove the tax but only defer it, only congress can say remove it. The thought is once it is "deferred", congress will formalize it and say no need to pay it back.

So yeah, smart thing is to save the "deferred" taxes in case it needs to be repaid but I'm thinking it'll be made permanent.

No way congress passes that since Democrats and rightly so view it as defunding social security.

[ISiddiqui]

Holy crap!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...ge%2Fstory-ans

Ten days later, Trump called Woodward and revealed that he thought the situation was far more dire than what he had been saying publicly.

“You just breathe the air and that’s how it’s passed,” Trump said in a Feb. 7 call. “And so that’s a very tricky one. That’s a very delicate one. It’s also more deadly than even your strenuous flu.”

“This is deadly stuff,” the president repeated for emphasis.

Trump admitted to Woodward on March 19 that he deliberately minimized the danger. “I wanted to always play it down,” the president said.

And Woodward is indicating he has tapes, but I don't know if this convo was recorded.

[Jas_lov]

The only point of the tax deferral is to help Trump win the election. He doesn't care what happens to those people. If Biden wins they'll just say he raised their taxes.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Galaril

No way congress passes that since Democrats and rightly so view it as defunding social security.

You are right, it is "defunding social security" but there is precedence with Obama and congress (Pelosi supporting) passed it last time.

IMO, if not done, this would have too much negative play leading to Nov. I think there is a good chance congress will make it permanent.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

And Woodward is indicating he has tapes, but I don't know if this convo was recorded.

It was indeed. CNN just played it.

[Jas_lov]

Is it fake news if Trump says it himself on tape? Why the hell would he talk to Woodward on tape?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Is it fake news if Trump says it himself on tape? Why the hell would he talk to Woodward on tape?

He's not a bright man. Woodward is the closest thing we have to a celebrity journalist - maybe Trump was blinded by the celebrity?