2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[albionmoonlight]

The Trump NBC town hall for Thursday is ON – and it will air at exactly the same time as Biden is speaking on ABC https://t.co/Ano78Pzs63

— Michael M. Grynbaum (@grynbaum) October 14, 2020

He's behind, and he needs to make up ground, so a townhall that the most people possible could see it the smarter move.

But it's not about smart. He had to go to his friends at NBC so he could own the libs and counterprogram Biden.

He wants to win the ratings war with Biden more than he wants to win the election.

[JPhillips]

I don't think anything matters muchh at this point, but it will be interesting to see how Trump friendly the audience is. I'm expecting a Q type question or two.

[Brian Swartz]

87%. Three weeks to go.

[albionmoonlight]

GOP making it's final push with something to do with a missing hard drive that has to do with Ukraine. New York Post published the story.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

GOP making it's final push with something to do with a missing hard drive that has to do with Ukraine. New York Post published the story.

It's interesting seeing Trump's campaign trying to use the issues that they have spent the last four years desensitizing the public with. Do they think children of presidents profiting from their relationships is a winning issue for them?

[kingfc22]

Seems legit

“The computer was dropped off at a repair shop in Biden’s home state of Delaware in April 2019, according to the store’s owner.

The customer who brought in the water-damaged MacBook Pro for repair never paid for the service or retrieved it or a hard drive on which its contents were stored, according to the shop owner, who said he tried repeatedly to contact the client.

The shop owner couldn’t positively identify the customer as Hunter Biden, but said the laptop bore a sticker from the Beau Biden Foundation, named after Hunter’s late brother and former Delaware attorney general.”

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

New York Post

Well, say no more!

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The Trump NBC town hall for Thursday is ON – and it will air at exactly the same time as Biden is speaking on ABC https://t.co/Ano78Pzs63

— Michael M. Grynbaum (@grynbaum) October 14, 2020

He's behind, and he needs to make up ground, so a townhall that the most people possible could see it the smarter move.

But it's not about smart. He had to go to his friends at NBC so he could own the libs and counterprogram Biden.

He wants to win the ratings war with Biden more than he wants to win the election.

NBC is an... interesting choice. I wonder who'll they pick as the moderator for his Town Hall.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

NBC is an... interesting choice. I wonder who'll they pick as the moderator for his Town Hall.

My money is on someone with the word "Trump" in their name.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Sharing this here, but it could very well fit in the trump thread too. We've talked about the mindset behind what drives some of this, and here we have some empirical data that ties authoritarian beliefs with religion and support for trump. The psychologist in me is mesmerized and terrified all the same.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...rian-research/

Roughly half of Trump supporters, for instance, agreed with the statement: “Once our government leaders and the authorities condemn the dangerous elements in our society, it will be the duty of every patriotic citizen to help stomp out the rot that is poisoning our country from within,” which Altemeyer and Dean characterize as “practically a Nazi cheer.”

Holy fuck.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

GOP making it's final push with something to do with a missing hard drive that has to do with Ukraine. New York Post published the story.

I know it’s a big shock but...it appears shady per an author of a book on the history of disinformation:

Thread by @RidT on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App

CAUTION ADVISED with this morning's Burisma-Biden E-mail story. For several reasons.

First, the surfacing. This here is highly suspicious behavior. Especially when viewed in the context of a political campaign. Creative, anonymous, credibility-generating, somewhat plausible. Exactly how a professional would surface disinformation and potentially forgeries.

How hard would it be to do some research to identify a nosy, conservative, activist computer repair show owner likely to pass on political dirt, then lure him with stickers on the bait machine?

Also, the revealed emails are shared as image files, not in a file format that would contain header information and metadata. That makes it harder to analyze and verify the files.

Note that photos, which appear to look genuine, could be there simply to add credibility to forged emails surfaced along with the photos. This would be a standard tactic in disinformation operations.

Bottom line: *every individual little fact*—every email, every detail mentioned in an email—must be verified when data is surfaced in such a suspicious way, not just one piece of information, say a photo. It appears that The New York Post did not do that here.

To journalists considering writing about this toxic story: don't—unless you can independently verify more details. And even if you can verify something, acknowledge the possibility of disinformation up-front, especially against the backdrop of 2016. Not doing so is bad practice.

And for the record: I'm not a Biden supporter. I'm not even a voter in the United States. I research disinformation.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The Trump NBC town hall for Thursday is ON – and it will air at exactly the same time as Biden is speaking on ABC https://t.co/Ano78Pzs63

— Michael M. Grynbaum (@grynbaum) October 14, 2020

He's behind, and he needs to make up ground, so a townhall that the most people possible could see it the smarter move.

But it's not about smart. He had to go to his friends at NBC so he could own the libs and counterprogram Biden.

He wants to win the ratings war with Biden more than he wants to win the election.

Someone on Twitter just made an excellent point that this could hurt Trump. People will be able to flip back and forth and the difference will be obvious.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

87%. Three weeks to go.

Georgia goes blue in their projection for the first time. 51% Biden, v. as low as 30% Biden in late August.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Wait, did you mean 5.5% or 55%? Right now, it shows 5.2% at 55 seats, but you''d want to include the totals above 55. So the odds of Dems getting 55 seats or more would be 11.4% right now.

I don't see how they get to 55 seats without at least one of the GA seats. Right now, 538 has Dems picking up 5 seats and losing 1. This is a gain of 4, which would them at 51.

2020 Senate Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

Here's the page.

It says there is a 4.3% chance Dems get 55 seats, and an 80% chance Dems hold between 48 and 55 seats after the election.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Kodos

2020 Senate Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

Here's the page.

It says there is a 4.3% chance Dems get 55 set, and an 80% chance Dems hold between 48 and 55 seats after the election.

Right, that's where I got my data. Yesterday, it was 5.2, now it's 4.3. What I was getting at was that the 5.2 (or 4.3 now) covers scenarios where they get exactly 55 seats. For their true likelihood get 55 seats, you'd have to add all the amounts for seats above 55. Looks ike that is now 9.6% chance for them to get 55 or more seats.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by molson

Georgia goes blue in their projection for the first time. 51% Biden, v. as low as 30% Biden in late August.

I just about fell out of my chair.

The lines in blue regions of the state for early voting show massive motivation for Democrats.

I don't think Georgia will go Dem again (it'd be the first time since 1992), but if Trump has to fight in Georgia (and he's coming to Macon) that's less money for Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Right, that's where I got my data. Yesterday, it was 5.2, now it's 4.3. What I was getting at was that the 5.2 (or 4.3 now) covers scenarios where they get exactly 55 seats. For their true likelihood get 55 seats, you'd have to add all the amounts for seats above 55. Looks like that is now 9.6% chance for them to get 55 or more seats.

Yup.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I just about fell out of my chair.

The lines in blue regions of the state for early voting show massive motivation for Democrats.

I don't think Georgia will go Dem again (it'd be the first time since 1992), but if Trump has to fight in Georgia (and he's coming to Macon) that's less money for Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.

As long as the battle lines stay with NC, Ohio, Georgia and Florida and doesn't push into Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin then Biden is in great shape.

[ISiddiqui]

The long queues have prompted a huge global reaction.
One Canadian commenter in Ontario wrote that unlike in the US, a nonpartisan national commission runs the elections.
Another Canadian wrote: "I've waited longer for a bus than I have ever waited to vote."
A British man wrote: "Dear USA, I'm 58 and not once in my life have I had to queue to vote. Sort it out!"
Another person suggested that election monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) should intervene.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us...pFz-CRieec_HHc

Now our elections are a joke in the rest of the world. Wonderful...

[JPhillips]

It's not incompetence, it's a plan for minority rule.

[larrymcg421]

WTF

Quinnipiac GA polls today:

President: Biden 51-44
Senate: Ossoff 51-45
Senate special: Warnock 44, Collins 22, Loeffler 20 with head to head runoff matchups showing Warnock up 54-42 over Collins and 52-44 over Loeffler.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by molson

Georgia goes blue in their projection for the first time. 51% Biden, v. as low as 30% Biden in late August.

After the last few cycles, it's jarring to see states like Georgia, Iowa, Texas as battleground states. Right now the electoral spread looks a lot like Obama-McCain in 2008, with the potential to get much worse.

[GrantDawg]

Biden announced he raised $383 million in September. That is a whole lot of cheese.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[PilotMan]

Too much money. Silly money.

[Brian Swartz]

Pence says the road to victory runs through Michigan, which is only 8th-closest among the states projected blue.

[CrimsonFox]

Wakey wakey look at this snakey

[BillyMadison]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Pence says the road to victory runs through Michigan, which is only 8th-closest among the states projected blue.

Hmmm.. maybe the President criticizing the very popular Governor there after a kidnapped plot was sniffed out wasn't a great strategy...

[ISiddiqui]

The other thing is that Trump is having these massive rallies in close states like Iowa, Georgia, Florida... where the folks aren't wearing masks and sitting/standing very close together. Less than 20 days before the election. While discouraging mail in voting.

I do wonder how much COVID superspreader events are going to impact Trump's vote on election day.

[GrantDawg]

Best thing that could happen tonight: Trump does Trump. He makes a complete overbearing ass of himself, and says several Trumpisms that even sounds stupid to conservatives.
Meanwhile Biden has a calm, boring town hall. He might not hit anything out of the park, or even out of the infield, but Trump being Trump on NBC means Biden just looks peaceful in comparison.

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[NobodyHere]

I'll probably try to tune into Biden for at least 30 minutes. I'm preparing by having a couple rum and cokes.

I would try to get drunk enough to watch Trump but I have to go to work tomorrow.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I'll probably try to tune into Biden for at least 30 minutes. I'm preparing by having a couple rum and cokes.

I would try to get drunk enough to watch Trump but I have to go to work tomorrow.

You should have seen me hammering Seltzers during their debate, but no amount of alcohol makes Trump tolerable anymore.

[Lathum]

I was drinking an alcoholic watermelon seltzer from a local brewery during the debate and dropping shots of titos into it.

[Atocep]

I'm watching Biden and reading coverage of Trump. Biden is doing pretty well while it sounds like Trump is doing as expected.

[Lathum]

Shout out to University of Washington!!

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Shout out to University of Washington!!

I miss Taco Del Mar and THe Orange King

oh there was a great record store too

[Edward64]

Biden looks energetic and sounds good in 20 min I've seen. But he tends to ramble on with his answers.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Biden looks energetic and sounds good in 20 min I've seen. But he tends to ramble on with his answers.

Overall he's killing it. He's natural in this setting.

Trump is a shitshow from the live coverage I'm reading.

[ISiddiqui]

Biden is definitely the opposite of Trump. A sober, wonky discussion about policy. Going far father than the questioners even expected. Biden is doing a great job here showing how different he'd be than Trump.

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[NobodyHere]

I think Biden (and Democrats in general) needs to take a stronger stance on "court packing". I don't know how his wishy-washy response appeals to anyone.

[kingfc22]

Why should they? So R’s and Fox News can try and play tape on it when it happens?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Why should they? So R’s and Fox News can try and play tape on it when it happens?

I agree. There's no reason to answer the question when all it does is play into R ads and its impossible to gameplan your options without knowing what the makeup of Senate is.

And Biden did say he's generally been against court packing but would consider his options based on how the current nomination process goes. Dems, in general, are all over the place on this because there are options other than going the neclear route. Until this election is decided and you know what options are available to put on the board it doesn't make sense to commit to 1 option.

[Butter]

Yes, I don't understand what good could possibly come from Biden definitively answering the court packing question.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I agree. There's no reason to answer the question when all it does is play into R ads and its impossible to gameplan your options without knowing what the makeup of Senate is.

And Biden did say he's generally been against court packing but would consider his options based on how the current nomination process goes. Dems, in general, are all over the place on this because there are options other than going the neclear route. Until this election is decided and you know what options are available to put on the board it doesn't make sense to commit to 1 option.

Yes I agree.When does the president answer our questions.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Yes I agree.When does the president answer our questions.

He's not the President. And merely being "not Trump" *should* be enough to fire up the base, no reason to give those weird 2-4%'s in the middle reason to think past "yeah, he's not a complete douchebag".

[Brian Swartz]

Candidates for public office giving straight answers to questions is its own good result and should be the default expectation. The board has generally agreed with this as it relates to other issues, there's no reason to make an exception in this case.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Candidates for public office giving straight answers to questions is its own good result and should be the default expectation. The board has generally agreed with this as it relates to other issues, there's no reason to make an exception in this case.

1. I've generally been against court packing

2. We have several options to consider beyond court packing

3. I want to see how this nomination process goes before I commit to something.

4. Once the nomination process is over I'll announce which path I'm in favor of.

I think that's about as fair as it gets. There's no upside to jumping the gun with anything at this point.

[JPhillips]

Very few persuadable voters care about the Supreme Court.

Any answer Biden gives is going to piss off some people.

The job of campaigning is winning.

I'm pretty sure the Dems won't even nuke the filibuster. SCOTUS expansion isn't going to happen.

[Edward64]

I'm okay with Biden not giving a straight answer on this. But the answers in his first debate and Kamala's VP debate was just to ignore it. He's gotten better now with the not-for-it-but-we'll-see.

I'm also okay with SCOTUS nominees being evasive on some questions like Roe vs Wade.

[spleen1015]

I'm surprised Trump hasn't already stacked the Supreme Court.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

1. I've generally been against court packing

2. We have several options to consider beyond court packing

3. I want to see how this nomination process goes before I commit to something.

4. Once the nomination process is over I'll announce which path I'm in favor of.

I think that's about as fair as it gets. There's no upside to jumping the gun with anything at this point.

Yeah, Biden is in a no win situation. If he says nothing there is a better chance ACB isn't approved & we don't have to consider jumping that shark. If he says he'll absolutely pack the court? Maybe he'll win by 1-2% more on an election day landslide, but it hardens Republican voters, gives them more ammo to ram her through, and none of us really want that escalation in a vacuum, right?