Werewolf LXXV - Rise of the Great Old Ones -Students Win!!!! - Page 45

Racer · 06-19-2008, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Axxon

I think so. Not so much to avoid the lynching today but in case CR isn't the wolf it's better to already have some idea on a plan b. It'd also help with deciding who to scan tonight in that case as well.

I plan on scanning Olie (if CR doesn't turn up wolf) unless the majority feels I should scan Path or you.

Racer · 06-19-2008, 01:20 PM

Dola, that's assuming we end up choosing CR today.

Racer · 06-19-2008, 01:22 PM

Updated vote count as of post #2202:

(5) Chief Rum - Oliegirl (#2173), Axxon (#2180), Racer (#2183), Mrs. Schmidty (#2190), Render (#2197).

Passacaglia · 06-19-2008, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

Page 37 has the vote history (order of the votes, unvotes, change votes, etc.) for day one and two. Chief Rum's struck me as most suspicious. Also, it should be noted that Alan T lashed out on someone (I forget who and on what page and I'm not about to go looking for it) when they voted for CR on the second day kind of like he was protecting him (saying things like he was voted best villager). That could be good or bad for CR.

I think you're talking about clap, and I can't be partial on that, since I got on his case, too. He pretty much dropped the vote with no reasoning, then said someone else had good reasoning, but didn't want to change his vote a mere 30 minutes after voting. CR got defensive, and everyone's radars started pinging.

Passacaglia · 06-19-2008, 01:25 PM

[quote=Axxon;1755611]Post 640 now bugs me but it wasn't a reason for my vote consciously.

There had been a discussion about voting for either clap, EF or CR and I'd been more inclined to worry about CR at that point and had decided to go that way.

Clap saying

Quote:

chief got me crap! [/b]

Was a big part of it considering I'd helped get clap too.

I don't see a problem with post 640. That post was right before deadline -- in the last minute of voting. clap had 5, EF had 4, CR had 4. There had been a ton of talk about vote-switching, so I think EF had to do that to keep himself alive, in case anyone else switched.

Passacaglia · 06-19-2008, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Looks like CR, EF, and Telle (in alphabetical order) are our double-villager killers.

I posted this after Day 2. If CR and EF were both wolves, I don't think they go after Telle on Night 3.

path12 · 06-19-2008, 01:30 PM

It's turning out to be kind of busy today, which sucks because I'd like to take a look at both Chief's and Olie's posts -- I think those are the two that I've wondered about most.

Though really, all of us uncleared folks should be thought of as suspect and luckily we have the numbers where we can afford a mistake or two.

Passacaglia · 06-19-2008, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

All right, I work my two jobs tomorrow, and I am not sure I will be able to come on. Probably not (and if I can it will be a quick lunch break visit or something like that).

So I am putting in a vote now and I hope Schmidty will allow it. I PM'd him as well.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

I said that I think we learn a lot from an EF lynch, and I still believe that. I think he's a wolf, and someone tried to protect him today by making me a target. Even if that didn't happen, he's a guy who if we find out his allegiance, we might get more out of the hash of the first two votes we have made.

If and only if EF is killed by the wolves for Night Two...

VOTE MRS. SCHMIDTY (conditional)

I don't know if that will be allowed, but I have to put it out there in case EF gets killed by the wolves. I don't see why they would do that, but just in case.

See you guys tomorrow (probably late tomorrow).

Post 688 -- CR puts in a vote for EF at the beginning of the day. He has to know EF is going to get a lot of votes at this time (this was during Night 3, before any reveals), and he knows he's going to be out all day, so won't be able to change it. It's possible he would do this as a wolf, but it seems like a risky move.

RendeR · 06-19-2008, 01:36 PM

We have the numbers, lets just mow through the unknown people, we're pretty well guarenteed a win here.

no the Theology major is mine. I'm the Martial Artist, so Theology kinda fits. All that Zen Ninja Master bullshit and all =)

Racer · 06-19-2008, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

It's turning out to be kind of busy today, which sucks because I'd like to take a look at both Chief's and Olie's posts -- I think those are the two that I've wondered about most.

Though really, all of us uncleared folks should be thought of as suspect and luckily we have the numbers where we can afford a mistake or two.

I looked at the numbers and I think if there is only one wolf left, they can't win if I am protected tonight (assuming PurdueBrad is good and that there is only one wolf left).

If CR or whoever we lynch turns up good then tomorrow it will likely be:

5-1 ratio of Villagers to Wolves (since Pass doesn't count in the ratio).

Also, since I will be able to scan someone tonight, we will have it narrowed down to two players that could be wolves. Assuming we got it wrong again, the next day the ratio would be:

3-1 plus Pass. I don't think the wolves can win this thing if there is only of them left (as long as we're not wrong about PB).

Racer · 06-19-2008, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think you're talking about clap, and I can't be partial on that, since I got on his case, too. He pretty much dropped the vote with no reasoning, then said someone else had good reasoning, but didn't want to change his vote a mere 30 minutes after voting. CR got defensive, and everyone's radars started pinging.

The timing of CR's votes is what bothers me.

Racer · 06-19-2008, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

The timing of CR's votes is what bothers me.

I need to explain this better I think. It seems like there is a strong possibility that he was protecting EF both on day one and day two.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I posted this after Day 2. If CR and EF were both wolves, I don't think they go after Telle on Night 3.

Why not?

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

I looked at the numbers and I think if there is only one wolf left, they can't win if I am protected tonight (assuming PurdueBrad is good and that there is only one wolf left).

If CR or whoever we lynch turns up good then tomorrow it will likely be:

5-1 ratio of Villagers to Wolves (since Pass doesn't count in the ratio).

Also, since I will be able to scan someone tonight, we will have it narrowed down to two players that could be wolves. Assuming we got it wrong again, the next day the ratio would be:

3-1 plus Pass. I don't think the wolves can win this thing if there is only of them left (as long as we're not wrong about PB).

If there is only one wolf, then there are 3 unknowns left after CR dies.

You watch one and Mrs Schmidy watches another. If one of them is the wolf it's either try and kill whoever is watching them or insta lose. Right? So it wouldn't really matter who the bodyguard protects would it?

If racer has the right person tonight then getting someone else still reveals and they lose. Ditto with Mrs Schmidty.

So, lets say worse case scenario. Racer dies and it wasn't done by the person Mrs Schmidty watched. There'd then be two people left and one would be cleared. Same the other way, right? All of this assuming 1 wolf I don't see how we can lose no matter what the bodyguard does.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 02:02 PM

God, I typed that unclearly and I was wrong.

After the death there'd be only 2 unknowns and I'd forgotten Pass doesn't help us so nevermind.

Disregard.

Racer · 06-19-2008, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Axxon

If there is only one wolf, then there are 3 unknowns left after CR dies.

You watch one and Mrs Schmidy watches another. If one of them is the wolf it's either try and kill whoever is watching them or insta lose. Right? So it wouldn't really matter who the bodyguard protects would it?

If racer has the right person tonight then getting someone else still reveals and they lose. Ditto with Mrs Schmidty.

So, lets say worse case scenario. Racer dies and it wasn't done by the person Mrs Schmidty watched. There'd then be two people left and one would be cleared. Same the other way, right? All of this assuming 1 wolf I don't see how we can lose no matter what the bodyguard does.

The bodyguard can't protect the same person back to back nights.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 02:02 PM

BUt wouldn't the wolf have to kill the person watching him if he was targetted?
I still think that's right.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 02:06 PM

So it'd be down to voting for the one the dead person was targetting and the one no one targetted. SO if the bodyguard protects you and you picked the right one game over. If Ms Schmidty picked the right one she dies.

Then its you, student, PB, Render
vs wolf

Pass is neutral.

You kill student or wolf.

If student
You, Render, PB

wolf
Pass

I think you're right.

Grr, it'd help if page one was updated.

RendeR · 06-19-2008, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

The bodyguard can't protect the same person back to back nights.

This is incorrect. I can actually protect the same person up to 3 consecutive evenings.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 02:08 PM

Add in another student to the cleared list right before you kill student or wolf so it's even better than I said.

Passacaglia · 06-19-2008, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Axxon

Why not?

Because I think that if we didn't get three wolves outed, people might have wanted to vote for one of those people. If CR and EF are wolves, they would need Telle as a scapegoat to get lynched instead of them.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 02:10 PM

I'm confused but I think that Racer and I reached the right conclusions even though I have no idea how we reached it.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Because I think that if we didn't get three wolves outed, people might have wanted to vote for one of those people. If CR and EF are wolves, they would need Telle as a scapegoat to get lynched instead of them.

I'm pretty sure they converted Telle on night 2 though.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 02:15 PM

12. Eaglefan - Lynched Day 3 (Order of R'lyeh)

He was lynched because Mrs Schmidty saw him convert on night two.

Passacaglia · 06-19-2008, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Axxon

I'm pretty sure they converted Telle on night 2 though.

Right -- which happened after Day 2.

RendeR · 06-19-2008, 03:41 PM

People got to quit confusing one another

Racer · 06-19-2008, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I posted this after Day 2. If CR and EF were both wolves, I don't think they go after Telle on Night 3.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Right -- which happened after Day 2.

You accidentally said night 3. I knew what you meant though and thought others would as well so I didn't think it was worth pointing out before.

Passacaglia · 06-19-2008, 03:52 PM

My bad. Even though I was lying yesterday, I really did think Axxon and I were just having communication issues then, too. Probably my fault in that case, also.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

My bad. Even though I was lying yesterday, I really did think Axxon and I were just having communication issues then, too. Probably my fault in that case, also.

There's 45 pages of stuff to go through. Things like which day is which can get confusing real easy and I think that's what's going on now and obviously since you're not a wolf, that's what happened yesterday too.

The fault yesterday was that I was looking for proof you were lying plus the communication thing. It wasn't something I could do to excuse the communications errors since my whole focus was finding slip ups. Know what I mean?

Passacaglia · 06-19-2008, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Axxon

There's 45 pages of stuff to go through. Things like which day is which can get confusing real easy and I think that's what's going on now and obviously since you're not a wolf, that's what happened yesterday too.

The fault yesterday was that I was looking for proof you were lying plus the communication thing. It wasn't something I could do to excuse the communications errors since my whole focus was finding slip ups. Know what I mean?

Yeah. And there's also the fact that I was lying. Plus, given the situation, I didn't need to convince you I wasn't. So that probably affected how I argued my case a little.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yeah. And there's also the fact that I was lying. Plus, given the situation, I didn't need to convince you I wasn't. So that probably affected how I argued my case a little.

Yeah, but your play yesterday and how you trapped the arcane collector was too cool.

I really think we only have one wolf left too. This just came to me. You and Jets didn't count as students so if there were 5 wolves to 13 students and that's a really high ratio considering that there was a conversion chance thrown in there too.

Mrs. Schmidty · 06-19-2008, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Axxon

I think so. Not so much to avoid the lynching today but in case CR isn't the wolf it's better to already have some idea on a plan b. It'd also help with deciding who to scan tonight in that case as well.

It's more or less just a random for the lynch. We don't have anything concrete on anyone at this point. Chief just seemed to be UTR and there was one vote where he and EF canceled eachother out then both moved to Claph, but really I think that's all I have for him that can be verified. I voted for him today simply because he's been on my list of suspects for the unknowns and he was one in common with the other students as well.

As for who to scan tonight if CR is either a student or not the last wolf, Axxon, you're actually next on my list, between you and Path at least.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mrs. Schmidty

It's more or less just a random for the lynch. We don't have anything concrete on anyone at this point. Chief just seemed to be UTR and there was one vote where he and EF canceled eachother out then both moved to Claph, but really I think that's all I have for him that can be verified. I voted for him today simply because he's been on my list of suspects for the unknowns and he was one in common with the other students as well.

As for who to scan tonight if CR is either a student or not the last wolf, Axxon, you're actually next on my list, between you and Path at least.

I can understand that. As long as Path is then selected by racer I'd be fine with it. I've already more or less decided I trust Oliegirl so as long as Path is scanned tonight I'm fine with it. Actually, I like the idea as long as Path is also scanned. I'm down with being blue finally.

Still, I really believe it's CR so I don't think it'll matter much.

Mrs. Schmidty · 06-19-2008, 05:17 PM

I think I quoted the wrong person there....lol someone asked "why CR?"

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mrs. Schmidty

I think I quoted the wrong person there....lol someone asked "why CR?"

Well, I wanted a plan b and now I've stated the plan b I advocate so it's all good.

path12 · 06-19-2008, 05:32 PM

I'm fine with being scanned.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

I'm fine with being scanned.

We all are which is why it doesn't really matter. Who do you want scanned with you? That's the real question IMHO.

oliegirl · 06-19-2008, 05:52 PM

I'm leaving shortly to go watch SL play softball, double header so I'll be out til after deadline. I'll check in tonight if I'm not too tired, otherwise it will be tomorrow morning. Won't be home til around 11 tonight at the earliest.

I don't see a vote switch or anything being needed tonight so I'm not worried or feeling bad about being gone.

Go students!!!

path12 · 06-19-2008, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Axxon

We all are which is why it doesn't really matter. Who do you want scanned with you? That's the real question IMHO.

I don't really care who else is to tell the truth, as long as it's another one of us who hasn't been cleared.

I've got to run, won't be around until late tonight or maybe tomorrow and don't see where there's been anything happen to switch today's vote.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

With luck we'll be celebrating later.

Axxon · 06-19-2008, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

I don't really care who else is to tell the truth, as long as it's another one of us who hasn't been cleared.

I've got to run, won't be around until late tonight or maybe tomorrow and don't see where there's been anything happen to switch today's vote.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

With luck we'll be celebrating later.

Really? You want it to be one of us who hasn't been cleared? I'd never thought of that.

Poli · 06-19-2008, 06:53 PM

PurdueBrad · 06-19-2008, 07:07 PM

I'll simply follow the crowd in order to get a vote in (sorry, haven't read up yet) before deadline:

vote Chief Rum

Off to catch up (man my Pirates suck!).

PurdueBrad · 06-19-2008, 07:13 PM

Pretty quick catch up. Thanks for my own shade of blue (for presumed good!). I'm in the same boat, looking Olie/CR so I can follow this train of thought. I'll probably be out until after deadline, sorry for being away but my Pirates getting humiliated again took priority.

Racer · 06-19-2008, 07:19 PM

Vote Count Update:

(7) Chief Rum - Oliegirl (#2173), Axxon (#2180), Racer (#2183), Mrs. Schmidty (#2190), Render (#2197), Path12 (#2239), PurdueBrad (#2242)

No Vote: Chief Rum and Pass.

Chief Rum · 06-19-2008, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR

alrighty then, Lets find this last wolf. I am the Bodyguard. I protected Mrs. S last night from an attack attempt unfortunately I failed to get the identity of the attacker (I only have a percent chance of discovering that) Racer I believe can corroborate my role based on what I was told in a night PM from a couple nights back.

Someone want to update the known/uknown list with all our updated info so we can get voting on the last 2-3 people that aren't cleared?

With our numbers we should be just fine to finish this out even if they manage to get one or two of us before it happens.

great job with that Role Pass, baited him right into it.

Thanks!

That was the last bit of information I needed.

The game will end tomorrow morning.

Poli · 06-19-2008, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Thanks!

That was the last bit of information I needed.

The game will end tomorrow morning.

Chief Rum · 06-19-2008, 07:36 PM

VOTE MRS. SCHMIDTY

As a nod to her in her first game, although this won't end well.

Mrs. Schmidty · 06-19-2008, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Thanks!

That was the last bit of information I needed.

The game will end tomorrow morning.

Oh? I'm trying to read between the lines, but I think I'm missing something lol

Chief Rum · 06-19-2008, 07:37 PM

Oh, BTW...

I still have the Book.

Mrs. Schmidty · 06-19-2008, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poli

Did you get extra butter? I must have the butter...and salt...dang it, now I want popcorn!

06-19-2008, 01:30 PM	#2207
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	It's turning out to be kind of busy today, which sucks because I'd like to take a look at both Chief's and Olie's posts -- I think those are the two that I've wondered about most. Though really, all of us uncleared folks should be thought of as suspect and luckily we have the numbers where we can afford a mistake or two. __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

06-19-2008, 01:36 PM	#2209
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	We have the numbers, lets just mow through the unknown people, we're pretty well guarenteed a win here. no the Theology major is mine. I'm the Martial Artist, so Theology kinda fits. All that Zen Ninja Master bullshit and all =) __________________ http://wotlabs.net/s...8/signature.png http://wotlabs.net/sig_dark/na/banichi18/signature.png

06-19-2008, 02:02 PM	#2215
Axxon Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ	God, I typed that unclearly and I was wrong. After the death there'd be only 2 unknowns and I'd forgotten Pass doesn't help us so nevermind. Disregard. __________________ There are no houris, alas, in our heaven.

06-19-2008, 02:02 PM	#2217
Axxon Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ	BUt wouldn't the wolf have to kill the person watching him if he was targetted? I still think that's right. __________________ There are no houris, alas, in our heaven.

06-19-2008, 02:06 PM	#2218
Axxon Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ	So it'd be down to voting for the one the dead person was targetting and the one no one targetted. SO if the bodyguard protects you and you picked the right one game over. If Ms Schmidty picked the right one she dies. Then its you, student, PB, Render vs wolf Pass is neutral. You kill student or wolf. If student You, Render, PB wolf Pass I think you're right. Grr, it'd help if page one was updated. __________________ There are no houris, alas, in our heaven.

06-19-2008, 01:20 PM	#2202
Racer College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana	Dola, that's assuming we end up choosing CR today.

06-19-2008, 01:22 PM	#2203
Racer College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana	Updated vote count as of post #2202: (5) Chief Rum - Oliegirl (#2173), Axxon (#2180), Racer (#2183), Mrs. Schmidty (#2190), Render (#2197).

06-19-2008, 02:08 PM	#2220
Axxon Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ	Add in another student to the cleared list right before you kill student or wolf so it's even better than I said. __________________ There are no houris, alas, in our heaven.

06-19-2008, 02:10 PM	#2222
Axxon Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ	I'm confused but I think that Racer and I reached the right conclusions even though I have no idea how we reached it. __________________ There are no houris, alas, in our heaven.

06-19-2008, 02:15 PM	#2224
Axxon Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ	12. Eaglefan - Lynched Day 3 (Order of R'lyeh) He was lynched because Mrs Schmidty saw him convert on night two. __________________ There are no houris, alas, in our heaven.

06-19-2008, 03:41 PM	#2226
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	People got to quit confusing one another __________________ http://wotlabs.net/s...8/signature.png http://wotlabs.net/sig_dark/na/banichi18/signature.png

06-19-2008, 03:52 PM	#2228
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	My bad. Even though I was lying yesterday, I really did think Axxon and I were just having communication issues then, too. Probably my fault in that case, also.

06-19-2008, 05:17 PM	#2234
Mrs. Schmidty High School Varsity Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Bellingham, WA	I think I quoted the wrong person there....lol someone asked "why CR?"

06-19-2008, 05:32 PM	#2236
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	I'm fine with being scanned. __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

06-19-2008, 06:53 PM	#2241
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	__________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

06-19-2008, 07:07 PM	#2242
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I'll simply follow the crowd in order to get a vote in (sorry, haven't read up yet) before deadline: vote Chief Rum Off to catch up (man my Pirates suck!).

06-19-2008, 07:13 PM	#2243
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Pretty quick catch up. Thanks for my own shade of blue (for presumed good!). I'm in the same boat, looking Olie/CR so I can follow this train of thought. I'll probably be out until after deadline, sorry for being away but my Pirates getting humiliated again took priority.

06-19-2008, 07:19 PM	#2244
Racer College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana	Vote Count Update: (7) Chief Rum - Oliegirl (#2173), Axxon (#2180), Racer (#2183), Mrs. Schmidty (#2190), Render (#2197), Path12 (#2239), PurdueBrad (#2242) No Vote: Chief Rum and Pass.

06-19-2008, 07:36 PM	#2247
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	VOTE MRS. SCHMIDTY As a nod to her in her first game, although this won't end well. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

06-19-2008, 07:37 PM	#2249
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Oh, BTW... I still have the Book. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

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