The hunt for Osama bin Laden

[Kodos]

We're approaching 4 years of searching for him, with seemingly no end in sight. The trail seems to have gone cold. Did you ever think it would take us so long to find him? I honestly thought sooner or later an informant would help us out, or bin Laden would slip up and get himself caught. I guess I was just surprised when I realized how close we are getting to 4 years.

[Arles]

I'm surprised we haven't caught him by now as well.

[Franklinnoble]

Well, there's three major hurdles with regards to the bin Laden manhunt:

1. His supporters are fanatics. They don't care about the multi-million dollar bounty on his head. We can't buy some dirtbag who will rat him out.
2. Bin Laden is filthy rich, and has friends with deep pockets. It's a big planet, especially if you're well-funded.
3. Bin Laden isn't a prima donna, and doesn't mind living in squalor. You won't find him in well-populated areas using his Visa card to buy a Starbucks Mocha Latte.

The CIA simply has a pathetic degree of manpower in the field, especially in the middle east. Our intelligence organizations were geared up to spy on Soviets during the Cold War. When that threat abated, budgets were cut, and there's no foundation for any good undercover operations amongst a culture of arab muslim fundamentalists.

So, I'm not surprised we haven't found him. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we never do.

[Suicane75]

We could always get CBS to arrange an interview with him.

[rexallllsc]

Our intelligence didn't even know about a new class of Chinese subs 'til they saw pictures on the internet. 'nuff said.

[maximus]

Originally Posted by Arles

I'm surprised we haven't caught him by now as well.

What makes you think he isn't dead and we're just not telling anyone.

There are advantages to this method I believe.

[maximus]

Originally Posted by rexallllsc

Our intelligence didn't even know about a new class of Chinese subs 'til they saw pictures on the internet. 'nuff said.

Not doubting you but since I haven't heard of this I would like to read up on it some. Do you have a link to where this is talked about? Thanks.

[sachmo71]

I'm not surprised that we haven't found him yet. Franklin makes some great points, but it's almost impossible to find a single person in this world without a tip from an informant or bystander.

Having said that, it's really not that important that we do find him.

[Raiders Army]

I'm not surprised either. We haven't found Carmen Sandiego either.

[rexallllsc]

Originally Posted by maximus

Not doubting you but since I haven't heard of this I would like to read up on it some. Do you have a link to where this is talked about? Thanks.

No problem.

hxxp://www.washtimes.com/national/20040716-123134-8152r.htm

[rexallllsc]

Originally Posted by sachmo71

Having said that, it's really not that important that we do find him.

I think it would be good for morale, among other things.

[maximus]

Originally Posted by rexallllsc

No problem.

hxxp://www.washtimes.com/national/20040716-123134-8152r.htm

wow, if this is true (meaning that the US did not know about it) then thats pathetic.

However, for some reason I find it really hard to believe that someone in the US gov didn't know about it.

thanks for the link.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by rexallllsc

I think it would be good for morale, among other things.

Agreed. The successful capture of Bin Laden would provide a major boost in the economy, I think.

For that reason alone, I'm certain that his followers will ensure that he remains well hidden, even if he ends up dead.

[Greyroofoo]

yeah, he's gonna die of old age before we find him and kill him

[Glengoyne]

I figured that IF we ever found him, he would be holed up in Iran, and it would be a nightmare to actually lay our hands on him. That said, I would have thought we'd at least know which country he was likely in by now.

[Joe]

It's hard to hunt and kill a dead man.

[PilotMan]

Look at how long it took to find Eric Rudolph. He was on the top 10 list for a long time. They had an idea of where he was, but he was hiding in some mountains in our own country and it still took years to find him.

I agree that it sucks that his ass hasn't been properly dealt with, but I am just trying to keep things in perspective.

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

For all we know he could be in LA right now.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

I figured that IF we ever found him, he would be holed up in Iran, and it would be a nightmare to actually lay our hands on him. That said, I would have thought we'd at least know which country he was likely in by now.

I think this is a very possible scenario. It can't be Afghanistan, since Porter Goss says going after him would involve violating another country's territory and we're currently occupying Afghanistan. I'm not convinced it's Pakistan either, since we've established we don't really care about Pakistan's sovereignty. I've followed the disputes between us and Pakistan and I'm not convinced that blowback from a military action in Pakistan would do anything. The worst they could do in retaliation would be to nuke India, and that doesn't make a lot of sense.

My theory would be that he is hiding somewhere he knows we can't get to him. If earlier intelligence was correct and he was in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region and he didn't just simply use a fake ID to fly to Barbados, then two possibilities would be Iran and China. I think we'd have a better chance of getting him in Iran, because I think that if the administration thought he was there we would be firing up the tanks already. China is a left-field possibility, but it would obviously underscore why it wouldn't be possible to go get him. We send a squad of commandos into China and Beijing would be running their flag up Taiwan's ass the next day.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

I figured that IF we ever found him, he would be holed up in Iran, and it would be a nightmare to actually lay our hands on him. That said, I would have thought we'd at least know which country he was likely in by now.

Link


Goss Claims He Has Idea Where Bin Laden Is 59 minutes ago



The director of the CIA says he has an "excellent idea" where Osama bin Laden is hiding, but that the United States' respect for sovereign nations makes it more difficult to capture the al-Qaida chief.

In an interview with Time for the magazine's June 27 issue, Porter Goss was asked about the progress of the hunt for bin Laden.

"When you go to the question of dealing with sanctuaries in sovereign states, you're dealing with a problem of our sense of international obligation, fair play," Goss said. "We have to find a way to work in a conventional world in unconventional ways."

Asked whether that meant he knew where bin Laden is, Goss responded: "I have an excellent idea where he is. What's the next question?"

Goss did not say where he thinks bin Laden is, nor did he specify what country or countries he was referring to when he spoke of foreign sanctuaries. But American officials have long said they believed bin Laden was hiding in rugged mountains along the Afghan-Pakistani border.

[Bee]

Anyone else think that Goss might just saying be that to get Osama to move in hopes of catching his trail? I don't buy the "sanctuaries in sovereign states" line. I think if we knew where he was, we'd have special forces going in and getting him. I could see possibly delaying if it were China, North Korea or Russia, but if that were the case you wouldn't come out and say you know where he is and give him a chance to move. I think it's more likely that his trail has gone cold and we're trying to get him to make some move and pick it up again.

[flere-imsaho]

The director of the CIA says he has an "excellent idea" where Osama bin Laden is hiding, but that the United States' respect for sovereign nations makes it more difficult to capture the al-Qaida chief.

Odd. I don't remember "respect for sovereign nations" being a problem when we invaded Afghanistan & Iraq. Our "respect for sovereign nations" doesn't seem to extend to extraditing a suspected terrorist for trial in another country.

Anyway, this is bin Laden, Enemy #1, right?

Originally Posted by President Bush

"The most important thing is for us to find Osama bin Laden. It is our number one priority and we will not rest until we find him."

My belief is either Goss is blowing smoke (to cover up the fact that he's accomplished squat so far), or bin Laden is somewhere like Saudi Arabia and Bush doesn't want to rile up his Oil Friends.