LXXVII Spawn III: Game Over (See Post 4507)

[claphamsa]

wew ! done!!!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This theory sucks

Don't worry, Night 4 isn't over yet -- you might end up okay! And by 'okay' I mean getting night-killed instead of lynched.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Clap, I try no to speak for people on in-game WW topics (like feeding them an answer to a question about their actions) but this one seems like a big-picture WW thought.

The bummer on non-voting is that people who don't vote, as either a villager or a wolf, aren't taking their opportunity to help their team win. When this is something that happens for one player out of twenty, you figure something weird happened. When it happens for something like 15-20% of the field over two days, then you get a little more concerned.

I know when I'm battling hard for my team in the game - which, you can certainly argue that I take a little too seriously - that it is frustrating to see others not at least mark their participation with a vote.

That is all. Not meant to be combative, not meant to make assumptions about the schedules of other people. Just pointing out where I've felt some disappointment in previous games from non-voting and had a similar sentiment to the one Tyrith expressed his post.

i didnt say i didnt undewrstant, I just diagree

if my vote isnt gonna counf for anythign I see no reason to vote, but i do know what your saying....

i guess we shoudl vote jsut to show were alive..... and so vote recods can be analyzed later. but bla!

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Don't worry, Night 4 isn't over yet -- you might end up okay! And by 'okay' I mean getting night-killed instead of lynched.

Hmm, I've got a gun and the option to protect myself - I don't think I'm the easiest target on the boat. But they are welcome to try.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

i disagree..... not just that i said i woudl be away... we only need 1.3 instead of 50% +1 so there is less honus on us to vote unless you are sure

It's very rare for 50% +1 to be needed. Usually it's just whoever has the most. So if there's 50 players, and the vote is 3-2, the guy with 3 votes goes down. In a game like this, it's MORE important to get your say in.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, earlier in the game I thought you were answering questions for RendeR because you were in an absolute trust with him. I've spent a fair amount of time trying to figure out what was going on in this area - mainly because I didn't want to burn these guys in public, but also because they are all clear at the outset of the game.

I obviously drifted away from this idea by the time I cast a vote on RendeR during Day 2, but still gave you a little more clearance than others in the thread have done. Really not sure why, once I discarded that theory.

So, since we've got some time to kill and we are both in the thread, I'll pose a couple of questions:
1.) Why did you continue to answer questions for RendeR when he wasn't in the thread on Day 2? I feel pretty safe asking that question publicly now that we are past the point where Spawn can convert.
2.) If you are playing as a villager, then who do you think is putting in effort to paint you as a spawn and why? What does your trust list look like?

[hoopsguy]

To the best of my knowledge, I have not seen the results posted yet for Marc's scan on Path. That seems kinda important, in the overall scheme of things.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

"Doctor Vaughan, my good lad, would you be so kind as to scan path. Much appreciated," says Alan. The two men disappear briefly and then both reappear waiting to see if the crew will kill anyone today.

Marc, would you please confirm the results on this?

K, thx.

[hoopsguy]

Chance of Saldana being Spawn:
Starting Spawn (assuming 3): 13.04%
Infected spawn (4 away missions, 10% chance each): 34.39%

Now, do we assume that the spawn have been successful with a conversion attack along the way? Because the math gets much harder if we do.

Similarly, do we assume that LSG and Telle started as Spawn? That seems unlikely, given that they were both simple Spawn. I think at least one of them was converted along the way. But the math is obviously different if you assume both were converted.

Someone had asked what the possibilities were that LSG, Telle, and Saldana were all infected on away missions. I think this is irrelevant, since we don't know for sure if either of them were infected on away missions. It also doesn't change the percentage chance that Saldana was impacted by his away missions.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

To the best of my knowledge, I have not seen the results posted yet for Marc's scan on Path. That seems kinda important, in the overall scheme of things.

Since they both returned out of the room, I would assume Path is clean. I don't see any time he could have gotten a spawnling inside of him unless Kwhit, myself or render had put it there, which I am betting didn't happen.

If Path was not clean, they would have both died.. so even without Marc's confirmation, I think we can assume Path is good now. The only thing to look for when he comes back is if there was a spawnling, which I doubt.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chance of Saldana being Spawn:
Starting Spawn (assuming 3): 13.04%
Infected spawn (4 away missions, 10% chance each): 34.39%

Now, do we assume that the spawn have been successful with a conversion attack along the way? Because the math gets much harder if we do.

Similarly, do we assume that LSG and Telle started as Spawn? That seems unlikely, given that they were both simple Spawn. I think at least one of them was converted along the way. But the math is obviously different if you assume both were converted.

Someone had asked what the possibilities were that LSG, Telle, and Saldana were all infected on away missions. I think this is irrelevant, since we don't know for sure if either of them were infected on away missions. It also doesn't change the percentage chance that Saldana was impacted by his away missions.

I think here you are asking questions i've already given my thoughts on. Either way I won't be pushing for a lynch on Saldana until he gets scanned.

[hoopsguy]

But I'm curious, so I'll play along.

Night 1: no kill
Night 2: no kill
Night 3: mccollins kill
Night 4: TBD

I haven't seen anyone speculate that the Spawn attacked rooms on either of the first two nights. We don't have kills on those nights. So I think it makes some sense to suggest that at least one of these was a Spawn attack.

This works under the assumption that Path is a good guy - we've seen both Marc and Path clear each other, so I hope this isn't too much of a stretch.

N1: 23 players in the game, 3 spawn known to each other by virtue of spawn council, and a group of players who have been cleared after this time by confirmed goods (Alan, Me, Marc, Path). Toss in RendeR cleared by Schmidty, who would have minimal reasons to do his duplicant thing as a Spawn clearing Spawn (right?) and we are down to a smaller set of people. I count 15, and that is without being all that aggressive with adding people to the pool.

So, chances of someone not later cleared of being spawn = another 6.67% due to a conversion.

If you assume they had two conversions, we can tack another 7.14% on anyone due to a conversion (1/14, no one died the first two days, but they had a D1 conversion taking away a person).

I can't prove any of this stuff, but I feel pretty good about tacking an extra 10% on the chance of anyone being converted that was on the outside during Nights 1 and 2 when running percentages on them. That is equally applicable for anyone, not just Saldana.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think here you are asking questions i've already given my thoughts on. Either way I won't be pushing for a lynch on Saldana until he gets scanned.

Is this because of a sense of guilt over past games where you've gunned for him? Or because of some kind of in-game reasons? Because Saldana does have a greater likelihood than any other person in the game of being a spawn.

I'm glad people didn't follow my lead on this yesterday, because we got a Spawn, but I'm surprised there was more traction for Bullet than there was Saldana. LSG was the only other candidate who remotely made sense to put ahead of Saldana, if you are paying attention to probabilities in this game.

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, I'm probably going to continue asking these questions until you get a scan. If we have two doctors around tomorrow morning I would expect that this happens, as Alan is suggesting.

I'm sure you understand it isn't personal, even if it is probably pretty frustrating if you started and have remained a good guy.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Is this because of a sense of guilt over past games where you've gunned for him? Or because of some kind of in-game reasons? Because Saldana does have a greater likelihood than any other person in the game of being a spawn.

I'm glad people didn't follow my lead on this yesterday, because we got a Spawn, but I'm surprised there was more traction for Bullet than there was Saldana. LSG was the only other candidate who remotely made sense to put ahead of Saldana, if you are paying attention to probabilities in this game.

The only reason is because Saldana has performed "above average" in the majority of missions that he has gone on.. I pushed for LSG's lynch based primarily on that, so think to be consistant the same should be done here. It is very possible that a scenerio exists where Saldana was good until his last mission and he got infected then as well, I understand that... Saldana however did take on a gross duty of going out daily pretty well in stride.. I think by all means we don't overlook him, but we should at least give him the benefit of a scan before we condemn him to death I think in this case.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Saldana, I'm probably going to continue asking these questions until you get a scan. If we have two doctors around tomorrow morning I would expect that this happens, as Alan is suggesting.

I'm sure you understand it isn't personal, even if it is probably pretty frustrating if you started and have remained a good guy.

I fully expected this, and honestly would have been stunned if you werent pushing it exactly the way that you are...it would be alot more frustrating if i werent getting any credit for the positive things i have done.

[hoopsguy]

Just as a note, for those of you trying to put yourself into the head of the bad guys.

They do have the ability to execute multiple actions per night. I've verified this with BK. This means that they could have had multiple actions on N3, something that I had put as a lower possibility earlier in the game.

But now that we have turned over two Spawn, and neither of them are roled, what kind of numbers do you think the Spawn had at their disposal?

Looking back on my review of Telle's actions, I think that she was involved with some kind of attack on a night where there were no kills. This tells me that there absolutely was a conversion on N2.

If the Spawn started with 3 and had Telle participating in kills on N2, then she either started as a Spawn or else was infected on her D1 mission. They tacked on another member that night, Telle was basically a trade for the Spawn - a trade for a better buried role, albeit one that probably wasn't as high on the officer list.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Just as a note, for those of you trying to put yourself into the head of the bad guys.

They do have the ability to execute multiple actions per night. I've verified this with BK. This means that they could have had multiple actions on N3, something that I had put as a lower possibility earlier in the game.

But now that we have turned over two Spawn, and neither of them are roled, what kind of numbers do you think the Spawn had at their disposal?

Looking back on my review of Telle's actions, I think that she was involved with some kind of attack on a night where there were no kills. This tells me that there absolutely was a conversion on N2.

If the Spawn started with 3 and had Telle participating in kills on N2, then she either started as a Spawn or else was infected on her D1 mission. They tacked on another member that night, Telle was basically a trade for the Spawn - a trade for a better buried role, albeit one that probably wasn't as high on the officer list.

I discussed this earlier as well, but you aren't including the other part of my discussion from before which is that not all spawn know who each other are and some spawn actions are not as much against villagers as trying to identify other spawns, bring back the overlord, etc. So the other thing you have to consider is if Telle or LSG were infested, if the other spawn even knew it.

[hoopsguy]

So, I'm looking to run the numbers on where we are at in the game to this point. I would love to hear people's thoughts on my set of assumptions:

D1: 50% add Telle, 50% she is infected as spawnling
N1: conversion
D2:
N2: conversion (100% sure on this, after further reflection)
D3: lost Telle
N3: attack (kill mccollins) + 50% (think this may be conservative)conversion
D4: lost LSG

With this set of assumptions, I'm working with the idea that we are still facing four (maybe five) spawn. I think that a worst-case scenario is much more gloomy than this:
- Telle not a starting Spawn, but infected while out
- LSG was not a starting Spawn, but infected while out
- At least one more person (Saldana x4, PackerFanatic x2?) infected while out on mission
- 3 night conversions
- that would be 3 starting Spawn + 6 more - 2 killed
- worst case = 7 spawn, but c'mon

Do others think we are still just facing three? Is there an assumption that an early action was involved in creating the Overlord? Going by last game, I think that came into play when still on the planet, not after liftoff, but I could be mistaken on this point.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So, I'm looking to run the numbers on where we are at in the game to this point. I would love to hear people's thoughts on my set of assumptions:

D1: 50% add Telle, 50% she is infected as spawnling
N1: conversion
D2:
N2: conversion (100% sure on this, after further reflection)
D3: lost Telle
N3: attack (kill mccollins) + 50% (think this may be conservative)conversion
D4: lost LSG

With this set of assumptions, I'm working with the idea that we are still facing four (maybe five) spawn. I think that a worst-case scenario is much more gloomy than this:
- Telle not a starting Spawn, but infected while out
- LSG was not a starting Spawn, but infected while out
- At least one more person (Saldana x4, PackerFanatic x2?) infected while out on mission
- 3 night conversions
- that would be 3 starting Spawn + 6 more - 2 killed
- worst case = 7 spawn, but c'mon

Do others think we are still just facing three? Is there an assumption that an early action was involved in creating the Overlord? Going by last game, I think that came into play when still on the planet, not after liftoff, but I could be mistaken on this point.

Since there was no night kills while on the planet until mccollins' I have to assume that there were conversions night 1 & 2, but the lack of any other kills those nights I think are probably a definite sign that they wanted to rebuild the overlord or other possible actions in addition to the conversions..

The night mccollins died, I don't think we can rule out there also was a conversion, but that might have been a sign that the overlord was rebuilt, or that they gave up with our leaving the planet looking to be soon to happen...

So I think we probably started with the 2 or 3 spawn as had been commonly suggested most of the thread.. then I think there is a good chance for 2-3 spawn conversions on the ship + at least 1 if not 2 offship conversions..

I do NOT see Telle or LSG as a likely on ship conversion and since they are simple spawns, I think it more likely they were infected off of the ship.. because of such I think it is less likely the other spawn knew they were spawn also.

So even with Telle & LSG's death, I wouldn't be suprised at another 5 or 6 spawn left, and I highly doubt that we have yet come across any of their core spawn or people they chose to convert on the ship.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I discussed this earlier as well, but you aren't including the other part of my discussion from before which is that not all spawn know who each other are and some spawn actions are not as much against villagers as trying to identify other spawns, bring back the overlord, etc. So the other thing you have to consider is if Telle or LSG were infested, if the other spawn even knew it.

I'm near certain that Telle was acting in concert with someone - the description of her actions does not suggest a spawn acting alone on an attack. I just got the Padawan instead of the Jedi when picking who to follow.

So unless you have another interpretation of my PM, Telle was communicating N2 which means that at least two spawn (and likely three) knew exactly what they were doing with their votes on D3.

LSG - not as clear-cut, but it would be unfortunate indeed for her to have been human before we went out and for both of us to have produced such a lousy result. LSG could also have slid into the Council with the death of Telle if she was not there previously. Also, the Spawn Queen has the ability to make herself known to other Spawn. I'm not sure how this acts in terms of communication, but it does provide the ability for a spawn outside the council to follow someone's lead.

In short, I think we have lessons to learn from these votes. I'm 100% convinced of this with Telle and pretty certain of LSG as well based on how that vote went down.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm near certain that Telle was acting in concert with someone - the description of her actions does not suggest a spawn acting alone on an attack. I just got the Padawan instead of the Jedi when picking who to follow.

So unless you have another interpretation of my PM, Telle was communicating N2 which means that at least two spawn (and likely three) knew exactly what they were doing with their votes on D3.

LSG - not as clear-cut, but it would be unfortunate indeed for her to have been human before we went out and for both of us to have produced such a lousy result. LSG could also have slid into the Council with the death of Telle if she was not there previously. Also, the Spawn Queen has the ability to make herself known to other Spawn. I'm not sure how this acts in terms of communication, but it does provide the ability for a spawn outside the council to follow someone's lead.

In short, I think we have lessons to learn from these votes. I'm 100% convinced of this with Telle and pretty certain of LSG as well based on how that vote went down.

I disagree almost entirely. I believe the starting (2 or 3) spawn all had roles. The Spawn Queen, the Unaware spawn and 1 of the other ( Mind Leech, Psionic connection, skindancer, swarm lord ).. As Telle was not anything other than a normal basic spawn, that tells me it likely means she was converted.. When looking at their convert choices, I highly doubt they would pick someone who already is going to get suspicion once we lift off for simply being off of the ship multiple times... I just don't buy that really, and because of that I feel it very unlikely the other spawn even knew for sure Telle was a spawn for that vote.

I just see ZERO evidence pointing to anything that would suggest Telle is on the spawn council... at all.

[hoopsguy]

I'm convinced I would have seen her acting entirely differently if she was attacking alone on N2. So whether she was on the Council or not, she was communicating with someone.

Again, if you are going to suggest that I'm interpreting my PM wrong then that is your best option to convince me that we have something else other than her being 2nd man in on an attack. But I'm pretty convinced I would have seen more direct action if she was attacking alone ... you know, like someone would do if they could not communicate with other spawn.

If she was able to coordinate an attack on N2 to convert someone, then the Spawn Council knew who she was on D3. Thus the vote had meaning and still has meaning.

[PurdueBrad]

I've been trying to figure out what the first two nights meant as well. I would guess, although it is just that, that the spawn were trying to rebuild the overlord. I believe that both people we've caught were conversions as opposed to starting spawn or anything else. That being said, Hoops asked how many Spawn we think we're still facing. I would guess four or five. More than that at this point would but us at a severe voting disadvantage as we need 1/3 to accomplish a lynch (and this rule may actually mean that we could be facing fewer spawn rather than more because the more spawn, the lower the chance we can pull off a lynch).

[PurdueBrad]

Forgot this in my previous post.

My guess would be, after those two lynches, that the wolves would be trying to get a conversion tonight rather than a night kill but we'll see.

[Marc Vaughan]

I'm back and after an hours reading ... just about up to date.

(oh and I'm not sure it it was posted in the thread yet (as I skimmed the pages, heck there were about 20 of em) but ... I've finished examining path - he's clean)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm convinced I would have seen her acting entirely differently if she was attacking alone on N2. So whether she was on the Council or not, she was communicating with someone.

Again, if you are going to suggest that I'm interpreting my PM wrong then that is your best option to convince me that we have something else other than her being 2nd man in on an attack. But I'm pretty convinced I would have seen more direct action if she was attacking alone ... you know, like someone would do if they could not communicate with other spawn.

If she was able to coordinate an attack on N2 to convert someone, then the Spawn Council knew who she was on D3. Thus the vote had meaning and still has meaning.

You have to forgive me as even with your scan I still don't feel comfortable with the majority of ideas that you have pushed this game so I also am having a problem with the validity of your "PM" that night.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Forgot this in my previous post.

My guess would be, after those two lynches, that the wolves would be trying to get a conversion tonight rather than a night kill but we'll see.

They can't do any more conversions now that we are in space. They can only do other actions (including night kills)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You have to forgive me as even with your scan I still don't feel comfortable with the majority of ideas that you have pushed this game so I also am having a problem with the validity of your "PM" that night.

The validity of my PM got us a Spawn back when you were still interested in pretty much anything but finding Spawn.

You have to forgive me for being a little skeptical of your ideas that have pretty much run counter to catching Spawn all game long. I guess I should be grateful that you didn't Duke me in an effort to demonstrate your fervor to catch Spawn, but I agree with you that we have been at loggerheads almost all game long.

If you don't think I was being honest with my ideas, on a day that I was scanned as good, then I don't know that you ever will. Or are you now suggesting that I was converted since that point and I'm trying to lead you to bad conclusions?

This isn't hard. The chances of me being a bad guy are probably statistically smaller than the chances of you being a bad guy at this particular point in the game. I'm actually trying to respect your viewpoints on account of your being cleared and your position in the game. No matter how bogus I have found them the vast majority of the time.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

The validity of my PM got us a Spawn back when you were still interested in pretty much anything but finding Spawn.

You have to forgive me for being a little skeptical of your ideas that have pretty much run counter to catching Spawn all game long. I guess I should be grateful that you didn't Duke me in an effort to demonstrate your fervor to catch Spawn, but I agree with you that we have been at loggerheads almost all game long.

If you don't think I was being honest with my ideas, on a day that I was scanned as good, then I don't know that you ever will. Or are you now suggesting that I was converted since that point and I'm trying to lead you to bad conclusions?

This isn't hard. The chances of me being a bad guy are probably statistically smaller than the chances of you being a bad guy at this particular point in the game. I'm actually trying to respect your viewpoints on account of your being cleared and your position in the game. No matter how bogus I have found them the vast majority of the time.

My resistance to having crewpeople senselessly killed off like you wanted to do with Render helped us get to space. I still guess you haven't done a great job explaining your PM to where I see the same viewpoint you see...

Best I have seen your explanation of Telle's actions that night was that she was wandering around aimless looking for something, or studying places.. or something along those lines.. I for the life of me do not understand how that = joining an attack. You didn't see her join an attack or you would have said so at the time.

Maybe it is just an inherent distrust for you, but the percentages are the only thing that have kept me from going after you.. as percentage wise there are only a few people on the ship less likely to be a spawn than you.. my gut still tells me you are the unaware spawn however.

Perhaps we could come to some like minded thinking if you could try once again to explain what about your PM result from Telle made you think she was joining in on an attack, because what you have shared so far was actually the opposite.

[hoopsguy]

Telle was moving between rooms, but she seemed to be focused elsewhere, looking for something, concentrating at times. I don't know what stock to put in her wandering, but the seeking and concentrating were concerns that were not alleviated by her response.

If she was alone on an attack, I would expect to see her targeting an opponent, launching an attack, whatever. Not seeking and concentrating. If you accept that she was part of a coordinated action N2 then the vote on D3 has meaning.

If we are going to swap "Unaware Spawn" suggestions, I would be happy putting my track record this game against yours. I was cleared later in the game, I drove for outing a Spawn when you wanted to ignore them as they continued converting, and you are trying to tell us not to attach meaning to the votes up to this point. In fact, the only reason I don't think you Duked me on Day 2 is that it would have opened you up for mutiny. See how two can play at the (semi) baseless accusation game?

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, Alan, we are going to need you guys on the same page as this game goes. I love to distrust Hoops and Alan, simply because of how powerful your role is, I wanted to distrust you but you've both put together good track records. Alan, I've agreed with you on offing the slaves ASAP and on no lynches. Hoops, you've led us down the right path lynch-wise and hold an important position as well. You've both been cleared at various times, if you guys completely ignore each other, where would you look next?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Telle was moving between rooms, but she seemed to be focused elsewhere, looking for something, concentrating at times. I don't know what stock to put in her wandering, but the seeking and concentrating were concerns that were not alleviated by her response.

If she was alone on an attack, I would expect to see her targeting an opponent, launching an attack, whatever. Not seeking and concentrating. If you accept that she was part of a coordinated action N2 then the vote on D3 has meaning.

If we are going to swap "Unaware Spawn" suggestions, I would be happy putting my track record this game against yours. I was cleared later in the game, I drove for outing a Spawn when you wanted to ignore them as they continued converting, and you are trying to tell us not to attach meaning to the votes up to this point. In fact, the only reason I don't think you Duked me on Day 2 is that it would have opened you up for mutiny. See how two can play at the (semi) baseless accusation game?

I still don't see your explanation for Telle's wandering around as joining an attack.. Based on previous spawn game experience.. to join in on an attack, there is no wandering around looking for something involved...

From where I sit, you seem instead of being happy that we got two spawn, seem to be trying to legitimize your "goodness" by promoting ideas that would then clear you even if those examples you give don't seem to support the facts you give. I could use the same example of me "pushing" for a lynch of LSG where you were more than happy pushing people elsewhere as a similar example.. however I fully believe LSG was pretty much the same unknown spawn entity to the spawn council that Telle was.

Instead like I previously mentioned, I feel pretty good what I accomplished as captain this game thus far, helping keep us focused on the main mission of getting off of the planet. Now we are in space, I'm fully eager to help try to catch spawn.. but almost every arguement you have made (whether trying to encourage the replicant to not clear Path earlier on, to trying to convince people to vote Render -instead- of Telle previously even though Telle had better odds) just doesn't sit well with me.

At this point, once the slaves are dead, I don't know that I am as important as many other roles such as the doctors, so I very well may risk a mutiny to see if my gut is right about you.. but the main reason I haven't duked you so far was because I was trying to give you a benefit of the doubt based on percentages.. The further you appear to be pushing some other agenda of self-promotion goes however, the less tolerant I get.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hoops, Alan, we are going to need you guys on the same page as this game goes. I love to distrust Hoops and Alan, simply because of how powerful your role is, I wanted to distrust you but you've both put together good track records. Alan, I've agreed with you on offing the slaves ASAP and on no lynches. Hoops, you've led us down the right path lynch-wise and hold an important position as well. You've both been cleared at various times, if you guys completely ignore each other, where would you look next?

I mentioned yesterday that if I was a spawn, I would have gone after security personal to try to convert while on the planet. They have an excuse to be out an about at night, they have weapons, and for the most part several of them have been guarding locations (and their protecting things is far less successful against spawn attacks)..

Now we are in space, if the spawn were able to convert our protection, it would leave them in better position to kill people without fear.

I would be eager to see Path and/or Marc scan security personal today (in hopes that Path and Marc were protected last night).. of course if security personal have been converted, then it very well may mean no one was able to protect either and they will be killed before being able to scan any further.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I mentioned yesterday that if I was a spawn, I would have gone after security personal to try to convert while on the planet. They have an excuse to be out an about at night, they have weapons, and for the most part several of them have been guarding locations (and their protecting things is far less successful against spawn attacks)..

Now we are in space, if the spawn were able to convert our protection, it would leave them in better position to kill people without fear.

I would be eager to see Path and/or Marc scan security personal today (in hopes that Path and Marc were protected last night).. of course if security personal have been converted, then it very well may mean no one was able to protect either and they will be killed before being able to scan any further.

I agree with you about the security personnel but if I were the spawn, I wouldn't target Hoops. Seriously, how hard is it really to swing 1/3 of the people to distrust Hoops? I would've gone after the other security people, relied on them or others to push Hoops and go from there. This will look awful if I'm wrong and Hoops has been converted at this point but I don't think he has nor do I think you have.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You have to forgive me as even with your scan I still don't feel comfortable with the majority of ideas that you have pushed this game so I also am having a problem with the validity of your "PM" that night.

I agree with you that he seems to be placing a lot of "this must be tihs way" on what sounded rather vague when he described it.

Hoops, is it not possible that Telle may actually have not been lying about what hapened that night? She may have actually been exhausted and trying to stay awake while wandering the ship?

That was her reasoning and based on what you said your PM told you it sounded to me as if she were just half asleep while walking around looking for a place to rest.

Knowing that she was indeed a spawn makes me want to assume she had some intent, but other than your PM and an utter lack of activity from the spawn that we know of, I think you're theories may well BE valid, but you could just be reading waaaay too much into things.

Not saying you're wrong, but taking the view that the only thing you really have fact wise is a PM that said she wandered and paused and wandered more. And from that you're extrapolating a whole lot.

Just be sure to try thinking through all the other possibilities just as thoroughly as you've thought of the first one.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I agree with you about the security personnel but if I were the spawn, I wouldn't target Hoops. Seriously, how hard is it really to swing 1/3 of the people to distrust Hoops? I would've gone after the other security people, relied on them or others to push Hoops and go from there. This will look awful if I'm wrong and Hoops has been converted at this point but I don't think he has nor do I think you have.

I don't think Hoops has been converted. I think he either is the unaware spawn from the start, or he is a villager with a completely 180 degree different view of pretty much everything in this game than me.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, my suggestion would be that if you are a villager that you expand your world view a little bit to accept the input of other players who may have different views than your own rather than trying to force your version of events down everyone's throats. You are the Captain, so you may issue orders in the game. That doesn't mean that you are properly interpreting events. Even the best players aren't right 50% of the time.

We should both take a quick step away from the thread and try to consider the merits of the other person's approach, rather than leaping to assumptions that someone who has been cleared is the likely candidate for the Unaware Spawn. I'm going to follow that advice. If we are both villagers then maybe our bickering will actually help us stay alive tonight by making us less attractive attack options for the Spawn.


OK, moving on to other ground - I'm just about 100% sure on the Telle actions that she was in acting in concert with another spawn on a conversion. Ergo, the Day 3 vote was coordinated. There is value in the voting records. I'm absolutely going to be acting with this in mind and I would encourage other players to do so as well. This isn't a grab for credit - this is a call to action for people who want to catch Spawn. That should be about 15-16 of us remaining on the ship.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, my suggestion would be that if you are a villager that you expand your world view a little bit to accept the input of other players who may have different views than your own rather than trying to force your version of events down everyone's throats. You are the Captain, so you may issue orders in the game. That doesn't mean that you are properly interpreting events. Even the best players aren't right 50% of the time.

We should both take a quick step away from the thread and try to consider the merits of the other person's approach, rather than leaping to assumptions that someone who has been cleared is the likely candidate for the Unaware Spawn. I'm going to follow that advice. If we are both villagers then maybe our bickering will actually help us stay alive tonight by making us less attractive attack options for the Spawn.


OK, moving on to other ground - I'm just about 100% sure on the Telle actions that she was in acting in concert with another spawn on a conversion. Ergo, the Day 3 vote was coordinated. There is value in the voting records. I'm absolutely going to be acting with this in mind and I would encourage other players to do so as well. This isn't a grab for credit - this is a call to action for people who want to catch Spawn. That should be about 15-16 of us remaining on the ship.

That is actually a pretty crappy thing to say to me as you know very well I've made it a point several times this game to not force people to act a certain way, to encourage people to vote how they fell, and to not rely on my gut to duke people (including you). If you disagree, I'll go back and show you EVERY occurance of where that has been the case.

The reason I am not considering your approach is you refuse to do what I asked, and explain better how you are getting from point A to B. In regards to Telle, what you have given us does not get us to point B.. so either you are holding some information back that you haven't shared, or you are forcing the issue. And if you are forcing the issue, it is legitimate to ask why you are forcing the issue.

[hoopsguy]

RendeR, I don't think we somehow lucked into a Spawn who didn't get a bed. There would be no need for seeking or concentrating if that was what happened that night.

If she was attacking alone, I would expect an entirely different PM. But if you want to go down this path, then you have to make an entirely different set of assumptions about what the Spawn activity would be night-by-night.

I've thought about this in depth, both before questioning Telle and over the couple of days away from the board. I've posed questions to the moderator about this, some of which he has actually answered (as opposed to deflecting, minimizing, or failing to provide clarity, which I've gotten with other PMs - this is not a criticism of the mod). I'm quite confident of my stance on this, and I'm alarmed by strong suggestions that we assume uncoordinated activity by the Spawn when I'm near certain it is not the case.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

RendeR, I don't think we somehow lucked into a Spawn who didn't get a bed. There would be no need for seeking or concentrating if that was what happened that night.

If she was attacking alone, I would expect an entirely different PM. But if you want to go down this path, then you have to make an entirely different set of assumptions about what the Spawn activity would be night-by-night.

I've thought about this in depth, both before questioning Telle and over the couple of days away from the board. I've posed questions to the moderator about this, some of which he has actually answered (as opposed to deflecting, minimizing, or failing to provide clarity, which I've gotten with other PMs - this is not a criticism of the mod). I'm quite confident of my stance on this, and I'm alarmed by strong suggestions that we assume uncoordinated activity by the Spawn when I'm near certain it is not the case.

Who has suggested uncoordinated activity by the spawn? I know I have said that I think they have been coordinated.. just Telle wasn't part of those plans as it seems fairly likely that she was infected off of the ship and thus probably not spawn council nor privy to their discussion.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

That is actually a pretty crappy thing to say to me as you know very well I've made it a point several times this game to not force people to act a certain way, to encourage people to vote how they fell, and to not rely on my gut to duke people (including you). If you disagree, I'll go back and show you EVERY occurance of where that has been the case.

The reason I am not considering your approach is you refuse to do what I asked, and explain better how you are getting from point A to B. In regards to Telle, what you have given us does not get us to point B.. so either you are holding some information back that you haven't shared, or you are forcing the issue. And if you are forcing the issue, it is legitimate to ask why you are forcing the issue.

If you are a Spawn then please Duke me. Because otherwise it is going to be tough to get you out of your seat. I'll take that trade in a second.

If you aren't a Spawn, then I'm very glad you haven't duked me because it would be bad for the ship all around.

I was trying to offer an olive branch with that post. If you didn't take it in that manner, then so be it. I'm going to try and follow my own advice, even if you are not inclined to do so.

[Alan T]

Well hoops, the good news for you is that I can't duke you tommorrow anyways as to kill the spawn off, it uses up all of my daytime AP.. so you have two nights to kill me before I get the chance

[hoopsguy]

Is it an absolute that Telle has to be part of the Council in order to participate in a coordinated attack? Clearly, that is the easiest explanation, but I don't know all the mechanics of how they are able to act. The Queen is able to make herself known to other spawn. Also, there is a Psionic Connection ability in the game that allows all spawn to know each other. So I'm not sure where you go from "know each other" to acting together on a night action - the Spawn could answer that better, but they aren't talking.

If the only way for them to communicate with each other is that Telle was on the Spawn Council then I guess that is what I'm saying. I'm not making a similar claim with LSG because I have no way of knowing one way or another.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well hoops, the good news for you is that I can't duke you tommorrow anyways as to kill the spawn off, it uses up all of my daytime AP.. so you have two nights to kill me before I get the chance

That would be hard to do, since we can't vote you off the island until you duke someone

I think you will be exceedingly careful about doing this if you are a Spawn - you know, like Spawn 2.

Again, this conversation is kind of worthless for me as it doesn't help me in making my night actions. You aren't going to change my viewpoint on Night 2/Day 3 - I don't see anything you could say that would, short of "I'm Spawn, I know how it went down, and you are wrong". So I would rather talk about stuff that might actually help me with making decisions for Night 4 and Day 5. Voting you just is not on that list.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

The reason I am not considering your approach is you refuse to do what I asked, and explain better how you are getting from point A to B. In regards to Telle, what you have given us does not get us to point B.. so either you are holding some information back that you haven't shared, or you are forcing the issue. And if you are forcing the issue, it is legitimate to ask why you are forcing the issue.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

RendeR, I don't think we somehow lucked into a Spawn who didn't get a bed. There would be no need for seeking or concentrating if that was what happened that night.

If she was attacking alone, I would expect an entirely different PM. But if you want to go down this path, then you have to make an entirely different set of assumptions about what the Spawn activity would be night-by-night.

I've thought about this in depth, both before questioning Telle and over the couple of days away from the board. I've posed questions to the moderator about this, some of which he has actually answered (as opposed to deflecting, minimizing, or failing to provide clarity, which I've gotten with other PMs - this is not a criticism of the mod). I'm quite confident of my stance on this, and I'm alarmed by strong suggestions that we assume uncoordinated activity by the Spawn when I'm near certain it is not the case.

Consider this the longer response on the matter.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Is it an absolute that Telle has to be part of the Council in order to participate in a coordinated attack? Clearly, that is the easiest explanation, but I don't know all the mechanics of how they are able to act. The Queen is able to make herself known to other spawn. Also, there is a Psionic Connection ability in the game that allows all spawn to know each other. So I'm not sure where you go from "know each other" to acting together on a night action - the Spawn could answer that better, but they aren't talking.

If the only way for them to communicate with each other is that Telle was on the Spawn Council then I guess that is what I'm saying. I'm not making a similar claim with LSG because I have no way of knowing one way or another.

Since the spawn queen is the only one who can do the spawn attacks (conversions) with help from others joining in, I highly doubt that they skipped chances to convert in order for the spawn queen to make herself known to others through whatever mechanism is listed in the rules. That doesn't seem to make much sense.

I also would have to assume they would wait on the psionic connection until either they left the planet, or at least several days in to get the most bang for the buck.. (if that role is even in this game)

The rules state the hive mind (council?) knows all of the spawnlings, but they don't know the other way around. So for Telle to join in on an attack, she would have to have had communication to do so I would assume.. and the ways for that to occur to someone who was converted seem unlikely at that point in the game.. So that takes us back to my original point that the only way Telle could have really joined in on an attack would have been if she was an original spawn, and then I would expect her to have had one of the roles instead of generic spawn like LSG did.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Consider this the longer response on the matter.

That response doesn't really answer my question at all. Perhaps its because I was a spawn in a previous game and knew at least then how attacking together worked that your description of Telle just doesn't match that at all.

[RendeR]

Hoops, the thing you're saying Alan is doing is exactly what YOUR doing as well.

both of you should stepo back and reconsider your psitions and think of things from the other guys PoV.

I understand that YOU fel certain of your information hoops, but frankly, from your own description of tihngs I simply do not get the same result when I picture the situation.

For my own thinking: We know that the oldest 3 spawn form the council and ONLY those spawn have pm rights and those are very limited unles they create the overlord.

Now, IF they immediately tried to create the overloard:

This would explain at least one night's total inaction by the spawn.
It is what I would do if I were a spawn, communication is extremely important in this game, if we hadn't figured that out yet

Attacks: Successful attacks are NOT guarenteed, on either night when no one died they could well have tried to kill someone and simply failed.

Now, if I tak those possibilities into account I can actually see a scenario where LSG and TELLE (being long time players but not very often wolfs/spawn) having limited communication ability simply played things very tight to th vest hoping to stay alive as long as posible while making small steps towards their goals.

While I agree that they were probably coodinating things in SOME way, I really don't see anything in Hoops PM info that shows telle was working with anyone at the time he saw her. in that situation I truly believe we got lucky while Telle was either:

1: looking for a place to sleep
2: Looking for a place or person in particular and not finding them
3: Simply wandering the halls because her night action points were already spent in some other persuit.



Now, what does that leave me with? I'm not sure yet, I definitely don't see the uber-involved tightly orchestrated plotlin that hoops sees. I just don't see the coordination. The rules for attacks actually make the coordination idea seem wrong anyway, because if they DID work together their chance os success rosses the 105% mark before any modifiers go on and that would seem to me to mean they'd have made more kills.

Conversions the first two nights? entirely possible, but I'm thinking 1, not 2. because I really believe at least one of those nights they tried to bring back the overlord.

So...I dunno. I'm betting 3 more spawn total. Maybe a 4th that is still a spawnling? and that for me is a worst case. In the back of my head I'm thinking there are only 2 left at all, but thats just my brain being optimistic.

Now, please you two, quick bickering and both of you stop assuming your right and everyone else is wrong you both come off very "Mr. know-it-all" sometimes =)

Instead of getting uppity with one another, both of you flesh out the OTHER guys theory in a post for us, that could bring a lot to light that we're all missing.

[PurdueBrad]

Quite eloquent RendeR and a much better way of saying what I was thinking.