The 2013-2014 NFL Offseason/Coaching/Free Agency (non-draft) Thread

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs3

I wonder what the other divisions' non-divisional winning percentages would be if you took out the best team each year. 46.8% doesn't sound "not very good" to me, certainly not "continually lousy."

The truth is that the AFC East has not had many great teams in it in that span, but also has had very few terrible teams. The Bills and Dolphins each have had one 4 win season, the Jets two.

Yeah, the 1-15 Dolphins didn't count. Oh, wait...

(just kidding, that's the only really, really terrible AFC North team in that span)

.468 is most certainly "not very good" and is pretty lousy in my book. Your definition of pretty lousy may be different.

Note it's not a matter of taking the best team out each year. It's taking ONE team out and that's a hell of a difference. The rest of the division is sub .500 and no other team in that division could be considered great for even one season during that time. The Jets' best record was 11-5. There's just been a lack of contenders to New England's reign. It's not their fault, but it is a fact.

When Indy was on top in the AFC South, they faced incredibly strong Tennessee and Jacksonville teams. The AFC North has had two different Super Bowl winners and Cincy won the division twice. In the AFC West all 4 teams have won the division and 10 games at least once. The NFC North has seen Dallas, Philly and NY have great years, even if only NY won the Super Bowl. In the NFC North, 3 different teams won at least 12 games in a season over a 4 year span. Every single team won the NFC South in this time frame. The NFC West was simply dreadful, but even they had two different teams appear in the Super Bowl before SF and Seattle got great the last couple of years.

New England's dominance of the AFC East is a singular achievement and they should be proud of that. But it's been made a lot easier by the rest of that division being lousy.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Game plan had something to do with it. But lets face it, the Denver D was mediocre for most of last year. There were a ton of reasons for that. Miller being hurt, Bailey being old, the S sucking (a problem in Denver since the Steve Atwater days)

At the end of the day, this was very, very simple. The Broncos know they have 2 years left, maximum on their Super Bowl window and then it's rebuild time. You may as well go for it now. I don't like all of the moves, but I understand them. This will be a nasty team next year, especially if Ball plays the way I think he will and Ware/Miller stay healthy.

Troy,

How goes it man? I don't know how this all turns out in the next year or two ( hoping they can get three years out this before rebuilding) but it will be fun.

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

True about the Dolphins, eyes must have brushed over them at PFR when checking. Knew they drafted Long high.

I mean, we're both right. The East has not had a challenger to the Patriots. But the rest of the "lousy" teams have been competitive with the rest of the league (just not with the Pats).

I think my definition of pretty lousy is different. To me they seem to have been pretty mediocre, almost average.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs3

True about the Dolphins, eyes must have brushed over them at PFR when checking. Knew they drafted Long high.

I mean, we're both right. The East has not had a challenger to the Patriots. But the rest of the "lousy" teams have been competitive with the rest of the league (just not with the Pats).

I think my definition of pretty lousy is different. To me they seem to have been pretty mediocre, almost average.

That's fair. While the rest AFC East didn't have too many deep valleys, they also didn't have any big peaks either. It's like the rest of the division is in a perpetual 8-8, 7-9, 6-10 twilight state and has been for a decade. That's kinda bizarre when you think about it. The sun doesn't shine on the same dogs' ass every day, but they haven't seen a ray of light since they got there!

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

It's funny because as a Pats fan I'm never comfortable with the divisional games which is at odds with the general consensus about the East. Surely this is true in each division but it feels like those "terrible" teams often give us the toughest games.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs3

It's funny because as a Pats fan I'm never comfortable with the divisional games which is at odds with the general consensus about the East. Surely this is true in each division but it feels like those "terrible" teams often give us the toughest games.

That's in your head. New England's divisional winning percentage (79%) is slightly higher than their overall winning percentage (76%). That's a negligible difference. But it always seems that way with divisional rivals, doesn't it? I feel the same way about the divisional games with the Steelers, but I imagine the W/L percentage would be markedly close to their overall winning percentage.

[BillJasper]

Bucs cut Revis, Browns cut Weeden.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Lions sign Golden Tate.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Lions sign Golden Tate.

This should be a winner as long as the money is right. The Lions get a solid #2 who never, ever has to be a #1.

[Travis]

Great signing for the Lions. Money seems about right for a team that focuses on the pass too. I'll be very interested to see if he can keep up his average after the catch as well as the number of missed tackles he forces. Really too bad to lose him from the group in Seattle, but given how the offense runs there, he was worth more as the punt returner than as a WR.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Logan

Schefter: Colts are giving CB Vontae Davis a four-year, $39 million deal, including $20 million guaranteed, per source.

Surprised he got less than Sam Shields.

Shields only got $12 mil guaranteed. So, while the "total" is similar, the contract value is a lot higher.

[Arles]

Chicago signed S MD Jennings (a restricted FA who GB didn't even tender). It's only a 1-year deal but I am glad to see him leave GB. Watching him attempt to play safety last season was brutal. It is impressive, though, that in 47 careers games played (over half started) he managed a combined 1 INT/FF. I would think that is almost impossible, but kudos to MD for finding a way to pull it off.

[Coffee Warlord]

He's probably still an improvement over Conte/Wright.

I'm halfway wondering if he was signed partially to add depth, and partially because he can help the team prepare for the 2 GB games.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Logan

It's pay info, so I don't have a link and can't verify it on my own, but I did read that Revis ranked as the #1 CB in Pro Football Focus' grading system last year.

1. Revis 18.2
2. B Grimes 16.4
3. V Davis 15.5
3. Mathieu 15.5
5. Rodgers-Cromartie 13

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Lions sign Golden Tate.

The Lions did something, and I'm not offended.

[BishopMVP]

I'm a little curious why someone didn't offer a 7th for Revis... just to get an "exclusive rights" period where they tried to re-negotiate his contract, similar to how hockey teams do it with pending UFA's. Maybe the thinking is his ego is so big he would never re-neg the $16m down, but will allow him to sign for less than that?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I'm a little curious why someone didn't offer a 7th for Revis... just to get an "exclusive rights" period where they tried to re-negotiate his contract, similar to how hockey teams do it with pending UFA's. Maybe the thinking is his ego is so big he would never re-neg the $16m down, but will allow him to sign for less than that?

I believe the CBA states that if a team trades for a player, then the new team is responsible for the accelerated bonus amounts. So if a team traded for Revis, they would be stuck with the huge amount if he didn't renegotiate.

[Buccaneer]

And the pats could likely have won gamble with Revis in getting him for cheaper.

[stevew]

He only had that 1.5m roster bonus this year. Agree it's worth a conditional late pick.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by stevew

He only had that 1.5m roster bonus this year. Agree it's worth a conditional late pick.

$1.5m roster/workout bonuses each year of the contract. If that all becomes guaranteed with a trade that would be tough.

Originally Posted by Bucc

And the pats could likely have won gamble with Revis in getting him for cheaper.

One can only hope we win that gamble... but I've never been big on betting on the Patriots if it comes to bidding wars.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

$1.5m roster/workout bonuses each year of the contract. If that all becomes guaranteed with a trade that would be tough.One can only hope we win that gamble... but I've never been big on betting on the Patriots if it comes to bidding wars.

Yeah. Pats won't win any sort of bidding war I fear.

Then again, Bruschi's comments on this were pretty intelligent. A player like Revis who can "shrink" the field just magnifies the defensive trickery and effectiveness of a Belichek-defense.

Sure hope it gets done.

[B & B]

Denver replaces Bailey with Talib. Anyone who watches football knew Champ was DONE last year anyways, why he doesn't just retire now I have no idea. Hes like that 22/22 vet who can only serve as a mentor so you keep him around to get the young DBs green bars filled up faster.

Talib is not only a major upgrade but will be cheaper because Champ was extorting Denver based on his 2009 skill set. Win-win.



The Pats have a forced hand in going for Revis now, and certainly he will be paid MORE than Talib was a season ago. There is no other CB that will not show severe dropoff from that talent level a season ago. This is a lose-lose spot for them to be in and they HATE to have their hand forced. Luckily there is some strong depth at CB in the draft if they choose not to get into the bidding war. With NYJ, CLE, OAK and the likes having tons of cash that might be the best idea.

Oh, and Geno 911, Ejack Manuel and Lauren Taneyhill aren't the robbers row of divisional QB opponents to face without the likes of a stud #1 CB.

Not sure why NE isn't going after Sanders who is 10x a better fit there than having Vereen #2 in Sproles.

[DaddyTorgo]

Hot off the Twitter

MikeReiss Mike Reiss
Per @AdamSchefter, CB Darrelle Revis and the Patriots have reached agreement on a 1-year, $12 million deal.

MikeReiss Mike Reiss
For the Patriots, short-term deal with Revis gives them immediate upgrade at position. Sides can then feel out if long-term deal is good fit

[DaddyTorgo]

If true I like it - he'll be playing for his next contract and will be hungry to show what he can do.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

I probably didn't clarify my statement correctly. I'm speaking about the rest of the teams in the AFC East. Take NE out of the mix and the rest of the division is .468 in non-divisional games from 2002-2013. That's not very good. Basically it's been New England and the 3 Stooges for the majority of the last decade. Miami had a decent year, the Jets a couple of them...and that's been it. In short, New England hasn't had to work hard for their AFC East titles all that often.

2002-2013

NFC South (minus NO) - 287.5-288.5 .499 overall
NFC East (minus Philly) - 284-292 .493
AFC North (minus Pitt) - 268.5-307.5 .466
AFC West (minus Denver) - 261-315 .453
AFC East (minus NE) - 256-320 .444
AFC South (minus Indy) - 252-324 .438
NFC North (minus GB) - 248.5-327.5 .431
NFC West (minus Seattle) - 242-334 .420

I can't find an easy way to take it that step further and take out games vs. the top team in their division, but here's the AFC.

(Divisional Records since 2002)
NE - 57-15
Pit - 50-22
Den - 43-29
Ind - 54-18

Cleveland/Baltimore/Cincy (minus games vs. Pitt) - 246.5-257.5 .489
Miami/NYJ/Buffalo (minus games vs. Pats) - 241-263 .478
Houston/Jax/Ten (minus games vs. Indy) - 234-270 .464
SD/Oakland/KC (minus games vs. Denver) - 232-272 .460

So Pittsburgh's division has been slightly less than half a game better per year between all 3 teams, and the East has been better than the South or West.

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

In what world does Revis get this after Talib got that?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs3

In what world does Revis get this after Talib got that?

Well it's 1 year, so it's good guaranteed money vs. Talib's amount of guaranteed $.

I dunno. I haven't seen it anywhere other than Reiss' Twitter feed on the ESPN boston page with the source being Scheffter's Twitter.

Fuck - I hadn't even heard that Revis had visited NE, so I'm as confused as you are. We'll see.

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

No, I mean it's happening, it's just inexplicable.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs3

In what world does Revis get this after Talib got that?

Is there any language saying we can't franchise him after the year? (Is that even allowed?)

How the tables have turned in 24 hours.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs3

No, I mean it's happening, it's just inexplicable.

Is it though? I haven't seen it anywhere but there yet.

Maybe Revis really wants to play for a winning franchise and a HC who will make the most of his talents? Call it "Randy Moss syndrome."

More likely he just wants the guaranteed money and the chance to sign a new deal next year that will be ABSURD.

[DaddyTorgo]

There we go.

[Arles]

Good move for Revis. He gets a "$12 mil SB" this year and probably another $25-30 mil in guarantees next year when fewer top tier CBs will be UFAs. Had he signed a normal deal, he would probably have gotten in the $20-25 mil range for SB (given the few suitors left) and been locked up for atleast 4 years. At age 29, that would probably have been his last big deal. Now, Revis has done the following:

1. Played in Tampa for 1-year, $16 mil
2. Played in NE for 1-year, $12 mil
3. Gets contract X next season

If he signs a deal in the $25 mil guaranteed range next year, he will essentially have gotten $53 mil guaranteed over three seasons. That's QB money.

For NE, they have a no risk signing of a very good player for one year. The problem, though, is that it becomes stupid if they sign him next offseason. Then, instead of a 6-year, $57 mil deal with $26 mil guaranteed like Talib got - they will end up signing Revis to a 7 year, $69 mil deal with $38 mil guaranteed. If they think Revis will end up being healthy and a good fit - it would have been better to bite the bullet and sign him to Talib's deal.

[jeff061]

Even when my hatred of the Jets was at its pinnacle, I loved Revis. Very happy to see him suit up in a Pats uniform.

[TroyF]

I think as a Donkey fan, I'd have preferred Revis to Talib, but we'll see. I'm not exactly used to any of my teams signing big free agents. It's kind of shocking.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Arles

Good move for Revis. He gets a "$12 mil SB" this year and probably another $25-30 mil in guarantees next year when fewer top tier CBs will be UFAs. Had he signed a normal deal, he would probably have gotten in the $20-25 mil range for SB (given the few suitors left) and been locked up for atleast 4 years. At age 29, that would probably have been his last big deal. Now, Revis has done the following:

1. Played in Tampa for 1-year, $16 mil
2. Played in NE for 1-year, $12 mil
3. Gets contract X next season

If he signs a deal in the $25 mil guaranteed range next year, he will essentially have gotten $53 mil guaranteed over three seasons. That's QB money.

For NE, they have a no risk signing of a very good player for one year. The problem, though, is that it becomes stupid if they sign him next offseason. Then, instead of a 6-year, $57 mil deal with $26 mil guaranteed like Talib got - they will end up signing Revis to a 7 year, $69 mil deal with $38 mil guaranteed. If they think Revis will end up being healthy and a good fit - it would have been better to bite the bullet and sign him to Talib's deal.

That assumes he would've signed Talib's deal... I doubt he was signing for $9.5m per. Of course, I also don't know what's preventing us from franchising him after this year, which is around $12m too.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

That assumes he would've signed Talib's deal... I doubt he was signing for $9.5m per. Of course, I also don't know what's preventing us from franchising him after this year, which is around $12m too.

Probably nothing aside from the threat of him holding out/refusing to report/whatever it's called again.

[cartman]

And Jerruh replaced DeMarcus Ware with the guy he replaced in Denver, Jeremy Mincey. I think the Broncos come out on the winning end of that one.

edit: The right term isn't "replace", since he obviously was signed for depth

[Arles]

ESPN just reported that the Jets reached an agreement with Decker. He seems a lot like James Jones in GB in that he had a productive season that was atleast partly due to a great QB combined with being a 2nd/3rd focus of defenses. I'm wondering how he will translate to being a #1 with a lesser QB.

[jbergey22]

Personally, I think the Pats pulled off something amazing in the Revis deal. I cant figure out why a player of Revis's ability would have signed that 1 year deal when he likely could have gotten 30+ million in bonus money.

I must be missing something in regards to that.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

That assumes he would've signed Talib's deal... I doubt he was signing for $9.5m per. Of course, I also don't know what's preventing us from franchising him after this year, which is around $12m too.

There must be something in the contract that says he cant be franchised I would imagine otherwise Revis needs to hire a new agent.

[Buccaneer]

Let's hope Revis can stay healthy all season long. Now if the Pats can sign a medium-route receiver...

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Arles

Good move for Revis. He gets a "$12 mil SB" this year and probably another $25-30 mil in guarantees next year when fewer top tier CBs will be UFAs. Had he signed a normal deal, he would probably have gotten in the $20-25 mil range for SB (given the few suitors left) and been locked up for atleast 4 years. At age 29, that would probably have been his last big deal. Now, Revis has done the following:

1. Played in Tampa for 1-year, $16 mil
2. Played in NE for 1-year, $12 mil
3. Gets contract X next season

If he signs a deal in the $25 mil guaranteed range next year, he will essentially have gotten $53 mil guaranteed over three seasons. That's QB money.

For NE, they have a no risk signing of a very good player for one year. The problem, though, is that it becomes stupid if they sign him next offseason. Then, instead of a 6-year, $57 mil deal with $26 mil guaranteed like Talib got - they will end up signing Revis to a 7 year, $69 mil deal with $38 mil guaranteed. If they think Revis will end up being healthy and a good fit - it would have been better to bite the bullet and sign him to Talib's deal.

The odds of the patriots resigning Revis if he has a good year are pretty slim.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

There must be something in the contract that says he cant be franchised I would imagine otherwise Revis needs to hire a new agent.

There's not, according to Albert Breer of the NFLN. Also says they are considering a long term deal.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

2002-2013

NFC South (minus NO) - 287.5-288.5 .499 overall
NFC East (minus Philly) - 284-292 .493
AFC North (minus Pitt) - 268.5-307.5 .466
AFC West (minus Denver) - 261-315 .453
AFC East (minus NE) - 256-320 .444
AFC South (minus Indy) - 252-324 .438
NFC North (minus GB) - 248.5-327.5 .431
NFC West (minus Seattle) - 242-334 .420

I can't find an easy way to take it that step further and take out games vs. the top team in their division, but here's the AFC.

(Divisional Records since 2002)
NE - 57-15
Pit - 50-22
Den - 43-29
Ind - 54-18

Cleveland/Baltimore/Cincy (minus games vs. Pitt) - 246.5-257.5 .489
Miami/NYJ/Buffalo (minus games vs. Pats) - 241-263 .478
Houston/Jax/Ten (minus games vs. Indy) - 234-270 .464
SD/Oakland/KC (minus games vs. Denver) - 232-272 .460

So Pittsburgh's division has been slightly less than half a game better per year between all 3 teams, and the East has been better than the South or West.

Nice analysis, but you missed the point.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Arles

ESPN just reported that the Jets reached an agreement with Decker. He seems a lot like James Jones in GB in that he had a productive season that was atleast partly due to a great QB combined with being a 2nd/3rd focus of defenses. I'm wondering how he will translate to being a #1 with a lesser QB.

Jets leading WR had half of his catches so 55-65 receptions seems like a safe pick.

[Logan]

Sproles to the Eagles, according to Schefter.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Logan

Sproles to the Eagles, according to Schefter.

Sproles and McCoy? Seems like a bit of overkill there.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Sproles and McCoy? Seems like a bit of overkill there.

I think Chip Kelly will make it work.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Logan

Sproles to the Eagles, according to Schefter.

shoot- not good news for Chris Polk

[cuervo72]

Yeah, I thought about Sproles and figured the Eagles would be one of the places he'd be least likely to go given McCoy. Very interesting.