Help me pick the SB winner

Marmel · 01-04-2010, 09:00 PM

I finished 3rd in a year long pool, so I have third pick of all the playoffs teams.
Superbowl winner gets $500
Superbowl loser gets $300.

Indy went first
San Diego went second

Who would you pick third?

mauchow · 01-04-2010, 09:02 PM

vikes or saints---tossup imo

Izulde · 01-04-2010, 09:05 PM

Vikings.

sterlingice · 01-04-2010, 09:06 PM

Don't have a whole lot of help but to give some Vegas odds here. That said, with 2 AFC teams picked, I'd hedge and try to at least get the $300 for Super Bowl loser with who you think will win the NFC

Here are the odds from Bodog. Looks like the Saints are the best bet:

22/1 Arizona Cardinals
28/1 Baltimore Ravens
35/1 Cincinnati Bengals
10/1 Dallas Cowboys
22/1 Green Bay Packers
03/1 Indianapolis Colts
07/1 Minnesota Vikings
11/1 New England Patriots
04/1 New Orleans Saints
45/1 New York Jets
16/1 Philadelphia Eagles
07/2 San Diego Chargers

SI

Passacaglia · 01-04-2010, 09:11 PM

Long before the Superdome
Where the Saints of football play...
Lived a city that the damned call home
Hear their hellish rondelet...
New Orleans!
Home of pirates, drunks and whores
New Orleans!
Tacky overpriced souvenir stores
If you want to go to hell,
you should take a trip
To the Sodom and Gomorrah
of the Mississip'
New Orleans!
Stinking, Rotten, vomiting, vile
New Orleans
Putrid, brackish, maggotty, foul
New Orleans!
Crummy, lousy, rancid, and rank
New Orleans

Schmidty · 01-04-2010, 09:12 PM

Hi Marm.

Just don't pick the Vikes.

Marmel · 01-04-2010, 09:14 PM

I'm down to NO and Minnesot as well, based off of byes, home field, Vegas odds, and settling for the Superbowl loser part of the payout. Vegas says NO, I am leaning Minnesota. Neither team inspires much confidence. I'd love to go with Green Bay or Arizona or even Philly, but I can't "waste" the third pick on those teams, can I? I also won't pick Dallas even if $300 is riding on it.

SackAttack · 01-04-2010, 09:53 PM

Minnesota's a good team, but I don't think they're a team you can trust, if that makes any sense.

Outside of them, I've got to say New Orleans has got the best shot from the NFC.

I'd like to think Green Bay could get there, but I'm not convinced that the offensive line issues from the first half of the season are "fixed."

MizzouRah · 01-04-2010, 10:37 PM

I don't like Dallas, but they are a scary team.

My sleeper is the Jets.

Radii · 01-04-2010, 10:50 PM

I would take Dallas, I really think they're playing better than anyone going into the playoffs in the NFC. If you wont' take them, Minnesota I guess!

Mustang · 01-04-2010, 11:29 PM

At this point, I say Minnesota or Dallas. Followed by Green Bay, New Orleans, Arizona and Philadelphia. I don't think New Orleans makes it. They could have easily went 0-5 to end the season and didn't look sharp at all. I can't forgive the Eagles for looking that bad in the last game.

jbergey22 · 01-05-2010, 12:24 AM

Vikings havent lost a turf game all year(10-0 on turf) which is a nice set up for them to get to the Super Bowl. I think the Vikings at best you will get a 2nd place finish because the Super Bowl is on grass as far as I know and they are terrible on grass(2-4 on grass).

Patriots or Saints are riskier picks but they have a stronger possibility of winning the SB.

With Welker really hurting the Pats Id probably go
New Orleans
New England
Minnesota

Packers as the best long shot IMO

I pretty much threw out the NFC East right away as their record against non-divisional opponents that made the playoffs is bad. Cardinals, Jets and Bengals are on shaky ground for one reason or another.

San Diego wont make the SB are far over valued according to them odds IMO.

QuikSand · 01-05-2010, 08:02 AM

I suspect I put less weight into the "looking good last week" theory than many here. Overall, I don't see any of the wild card round games looking much better than a 55/45 proposition, and that means that (more or less) you're taking a pretty big risk that your clever pick of Dallas of New England or whomever seems like a novelty selection here ends up one-and-done...and at best they win their opener and than have to go and play two road games against quality teams to even get to the big game.

The smart thing here is not to get too clever, and just go where the obvious play is. The bye teams. Pick whether you like Minnesota or New Orleans, and just be done with it. I'd take the Saints, myself.

Doug5984 · 01-05-2010, 08:26 AM

Don't forget the Saints were winning a lot, and by big margins until we lost both starting corners- that is when the D fell apart, both will be back for the playoffs (actually both saw a little playing time this weekend) and it allows the defense to man up on the outside and bring different blitzes and coverages, a lot of different looks that we couldn't do when we had to sign guys off the street to play CB. Our offense slowed up a good bit the last few weeks with Shockey out, he really does do a lot to open up coverage. He will be back. Reggie has been playing well and is back from his tweaked knee. Lance Moore will finally be back.

Basically the Saints had a ton of injuries throughout the season, and are getting very healthy at the right time- so they could be a dangerous team...they could also be one and done... all I know is if they make it to the superbowl my savings account will take a huge hit, and I will have a shiny new fleur de lis tattoo.

Rizon · 01-05-2010, 08:34 AM

I'll put huge money on the Saints NOT winning the SB.

Blackadar · 01-05-2010, 08:50 AM

I'd take the Vikings over the Saints.

I don't like the other AFC teams. The Pats without Welker? The Jets with a rookie QB? The Ravens who finished only 9-7? Cincy who played their best football 2 months ago? Stranger things have happened, but I don't see those teams beating SD and Indy.

So now we're into the NFC and someone has to make it to the Super Bowl. The most complete team to me seems to be the Vikes and they get to play in domes all the way through the playoffs. I just like the way the Vikes are built to go all the way. And as badly as the Vikes have slumped at the end of this year, the Saints have looked worse. I don't like the chances of any of other remaining NFC teams - save Arizona - coming into one of the domes and beating the Vikes/Saints on their turf.

albionmoonlight · 01-05-2010, 09:07 AM

I think that the Saints are the best pick of the teams remaining. I just can't imagine Favre/Childress not screwing something up with two games in which to do it.

I also like Dallas a lot--and if the NFC playoffs were all at neutral sites, I might go with them--but I think that the obvious structural advantages that the Saints have (one less game and home field advantage) put them over the top.

bhlloy · 01-05-2010, 09:29 AM

I have to say the Saints just look like a one-and-done team to me. Whether they've hit a wall or people have figured them out, they just haven't been playing good ball for a few games now. Interesting point about the corners being out but I don't see that turning the entire team around... we'll see.

Minnesota and Dallas seem to have the same issue to me, gunslinger QB's with a history of doing interesting things in big games and questionable coaching. I think Tubby is a better coach than Childress and Favre and Romo are probably about the same on loseagameability, I'm close to leaning towards picking the Cowboys but I think Minnesota has the better defense and has to play one game less, so let's pick the Vikings.

Vikings - Colts Super Bowl.

Rizon · 01-05-2010, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I have to say the Saints just look like a one-and-done team to me. .

Yup, they don't look good at all. They're going to get trounced by the first team they play.

albionmoonlight · 01-05-2010, 10:06 AM

Saints fans (like most fans) are passionate but fickle. The one thing that could really hurt the Saints is if they play a team with an explosive offense like Green Bay or Arizona and get down early by two scores. I could see--after the last month--the fans starting to tighten up and boo and generally turn home field into a disadvantage.

All that said, a team does not win 13 games in a row because they are easily trounced. "Momentum" has some meaning in sports, but it isn't like all of the players and coaches from the first 3/4 of the season are no longer on the team.

Peter King called them an X-factor, and I think that is the best way to describe it. I have no idea how they will do in the playoffs, but if I had to bet (and I am glad that I don't have to bet), I think that they win two home games in a somewhat weak NFC and go to the Super Bowl.

GreenMonster · 01-05-2010, 10:22 AM

I can't believe nobody here is touting the Chargers. They have won 11 in a row, don't have a ton of injuries, and get a 1st round bye.

What have the Saints or Vikings done lately that everyone is hitching to there bandwagons.

sterlingice · 01-05-2010, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GreenMonster

I can't believe nobody here is touting the Chargers. They have won 11 in a row, don't have a ton of injuries, and get a 1st round bye.

What have the Saints or Vikings done lately that everyone is hitching to there bandwagons.

Well...

"Indy went first
San Diego went second

Who would you pick third?"

That might answer the question

SI

Rizon · 01-05-2010, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GreenMonster

What have the Saints done lately that everyone is hitching to there bandwagons.

Played sloppy ball the last 11 weeks?

flere-imsaho · 01-05-2010, 11:07 AM

Wild Card

Dallas over Philadelphia
Arizona over Green Bay
Baltimore over New England
NY Jets over Cincinnati

Divisional Round

Minnesota over Dallas
New Orleans over Arizona
San Diego over Baltimore
NY Jets over Indianapolis

Championship Round

New Orleans over Minnesota
San Diego over NY Jets

Super Bowl

San Diego over New Orleans

GreenMonster · 01-05-2010, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Well...

"Indy went first
San Diego went second

Who would you pick third?"

That might answer the question

SI

I stand corrected thank you, I was wondering why everyone is hitching up to crappy NFC teams...

Dr. Sak · 01-05-2010, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rizon

..

If the Eagles win they play the Saints and the Pack play the Vikings.

Rizon · 01-05-2010, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

If the Eagles win they play the Saints and the Pack play the Vikings.

Ah crap

molson · 01-05-2010, 11:49 AM

One man's opinion:

-Jets over Bengals
-Patriots over Ravens
-Packers over Cardinals
-Cowboys over Eagles

-Chargers over Patriots
-Colts over Jets
-Cowboys over Vikings
-Packers over Saints

-Chargers over Colts
-Packers over Cowboys

-Chargers over Packers

Rizon · 01-05-2010, 11:51 AM

Updated for seeding correction

Doug5984 · 01-05-2010, 11:53 AM

A lot of people say the Saints haven't been playing great, and they will be one and done- but then go on to say the Vikings will make it. They lost 3 of the last 5, and really 3 of the last 4 until they had to play a Giants team that packed in early.

Can't underestimate the importance of getting the corners, and DT (Porter, Greer, & Ellis) back.

It pains me to say this but the teams I am most worried about are Eagles and Cowboys, I'm pulling for the Cowboys week 1 so we can face the Cards or Pack on a short week- let the other teams battle it out then we'd get to play the next winner at home, and anything can happen.

Rizon · 01-05-2010, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doug5984

A lot of people say the Saints haven't been playing great, and they will be one and done- but then go on to say the Vikings will make it. They lost 3 of the last 5, and really 3 of the last 4 until they had to play a Giants team that packed in early.

Can't underestimate the importance of getting the corners, and DT (Porter, Greer, & Ellis) back.

It pains me to say this but the teams I am most worried about are Eagles and Cowboys, I'm pulling for the Cowboys week 1 so we can face the Cards or Pack on a short week- let the other teams battle it out then we'd get to play the next winner at home, and anything can happen.

I'm not much of a fan of the way the Vikes have been playing, but the rest of the field is pretty much suck.

MIJB#19 · 01-05-2010, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The smart thing here is not to get too clever, and just go where the obvious play is. The bye teams. Pick whether you like Minnesota or New Orleans, and just be done with it. I'd take the Saints, myself.

This is the only correct way to look at this problem. Except that I think you have to take the #1 seed to improve your odds.

Passacaglia · 01-05-2010, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rizon

Updated for seeding correction

So the Packers are going to win the Cowboys-Eagles game, and the Eagles are going to win the Packers-Cardinals game?

Rizon · 01-05-2010, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

So the Packers are going to win the Cowboys-Eagles game, and the Eagles are going to win the Packers-Cardinals game?

Only way I could get creative in Paint ... haha. Actually I was just too lazy to move everything around

Eaglesfan27 · 01-05-2010, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Minnesota's a good team, but I don't think they're a team you can trust, if that makes any sense.

Outside of them, I've got to say New Orleans has got the best shot from the NFC.

I'd like to think Green Bay could get there, but I'm not convinced that the offensive line issues from the first half of the season are "fixed."

New Orleans has played worse and worse as the year has gone on. Their defense is getting some time to get healthy, but I'd pick the Vikings before them.

Blackadar · 01-05-2010, 12:30 PM

The thing that scares me about the Colts is that they really didn't play anyone. It was the same thing I said about the Patsies a couple of years ago. The teams the Colts played with a winning record are Arizona (10-6), Houston x 2 (9-7), New England (10-6), Baltimore (9-7) and the New York Jets (9-7). That's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents.

I know not to bet against Peyton Manning, so if I had first pick I'd probably take the Colts. But I'm just unconvinced that they're as good as their record indicates. Their point differential is just 5th in the AFC (behind the Patriots, Chargers, Ravens and the Jets) and 9th in the NFL. Between that and a rushing offense that ranked dead last in the NFL, I'm just skeptical of 'em.

I've always believed that point differential + strength of schedule are pretty telling stats on how good a team really is. For example, Pittsburgh was +124 in points against the most difficult schedule in the year last year, so going into the playoffs it was pretty clear that they were a front-runner.

FYI, the Bengals have the worst point differential of any team in the playoffs at a paltry +14. The next worst is Arizona (+50) and then Philly (+92). That's a shocking stat and suggests that the Bengals may be a one-and-done team in these playoffs. Then again, Arizona went into the playoffs last year at +1 and got to the Super Bowl. That's why they play the games...

B & B · 01-05-2010, 01:14 PM

I have the Saints vs. Chargers as my SB prediction FWIW.

Marmel · 01-05-2010, 05:40 PM

I went back and forth a few times between NO and Minnesota before finally settling on Minnesota. I'm not entirely happy with the pick, but it had to be an NFC team, it had to be a team with a bye, and in a head to head match up, I'll go with Minnesota over NO by a hair. Both teams have their warts, and maybe MIN has more of them, but it is too late.

Good discussion though, thanks for the input.

MizzouRah · 01-05-2010, 05:59 PM

Anyone who thinks Cincinnatti is going to beat the Jets, needs help.

B & B · 01-06-2010, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Anyone who thinks Cincinnatti is going to beat the Jets, needs help.

You are an amateur and a fool. The Bengals tanked that last game in order to get this rematch. The Jets have a great offensive line and a good defense, but are the worst team in the playoffs. Fortunately, theyre playing one of the worst 3 teams in the playoffs.

The game is pretty close to a coin toss, but if forced to make a bet, Id take the Bengals hands down.

As for the NFC selection, the game still goes thru New Orleans but its pretty wide open.

claphamsa · 01-07-2010, 07:31 AM

Cinci beats Philadlephia to win it all!

flere-imsaho · 01-11-2010, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Wild Card

Dallas over Philadelphia
Arizona over Green Bay
Baltimore over New England
NY Jets over Cincinnati

Boo. Yah.

Abe Sargent · 01-11-2010, 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B & B

You are an amateur and a fool. The Bengals tanked that last game in order to get this rematch. The Jets have a great offensive line and a good defense, but are the worst team in the playoffs. Fortunately, theyre playing one of the worst 3 teams in the playoffs.

The game is pretty close to a coin toss, but if forced to make a bet, Id take the Bengals hands down.

As for the NFC selection, the game still goes thru New Orleans but its pretty wide open.

Heh

flere-imsaho · 01-11-2010, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Wild Card

Dallas over Philadelphia
Arizona over Green Bay
Baltimore over New England
NY Jets over Cincinnati

Divisional Round

Minnesota over Dallas
New Orleans over Arizona
San Diego over Baltimore
NY Jets over Indianapolis

Championship Round

New Orleans over Minnesota
San Diego over NY Jets

Super Bowl

San Diego over New Orleans

I misunderstood the re-seeding, so I have to re-predict the AFC side:

Divisional Round

Minnesota over Dallas
New Orleans over Arizona
San Diego over NY Jets
Baltimore over Indianapolis

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Minnesota
San Diego over Baltimore

Super Bowl

San Diego over New Orleans

Rizon · 01-11-2010, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Boo. Yah.

hax

Chubby · 01-11-2010, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rizon

Updated for seeding correction

Hope you didn't bet this way...

Rizon · 01-11-2010, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

Hope you didn't bet this way...

Matthean · 01-11-2010, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

Hope you didn't bet this way...

Sport's Guy had the same four teams winning as well. I don't think any of the teams that lost really made me go, "Yes, I trust them enough to win no matter what." All had flaws and lost games that made you think they could get beat early in the playoffs. Another thing that seems to be key is mailing it in at the end of the regular season and even more so to the team you play the next week. "Oh, but things will be different now that it's the playoffs. They will play for real." Nope.

Oddly enough the one team I trust enough that few give a chance is Dallas. Not saying they beat Minnesota, but let's be honest. Favre has ended the last two seasons with INTs and forever will be the gun slinger. Childress is still the coach. The running game doesn't put fear in as many defenses as it should. They have been on a downward slide themselves. Enough is there for them to beat anybody, but they are far from stable.

MizzouRah · 01-11-2010, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B & B

You are an amateur and a fool. The Bengals tanked that last game in order to get this rematch. The Jets have a great offensive line and a good defense, but are the worst team in the playoffs. Fortunately, theyre playing one of the worst 3 teams in the playoffs.

The game is pretty close to a coin toss, but if forced to make a bet, Id take the Bengals hands down.

As for the NFC selection, the game still goes thru New Orleans but its pretty wide open.

Yeah.. who's the fool now.. MUHAHAHAHA!!!!!

B & B · 01-12-2010, 02:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Yeah.. who's the fool now.. MUHAHAHAHA!!!!!

I would say this guy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Cinci beats Philadlephia to win it all!

01-04-2010, 09:05 PM	#3
Izulde Head Coach Join Date: Sep 2004	Vikings. __________________ 2006 Golden Scribe Nominee 2006 Golden Scribe Winner Best Non-Sport Dynasty: May Our Reign Be Green and Golden (CK Dynasty) Rookie Writer of the Year Dynasty of the Year: May Our Reign Be Green and Golden (CK Dynasty)

01-04-2010, 09:06 PM	#4
sterlingice Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Back in Houston!	Don't have a whole lot of help but to give some Vegas odds here. That said, with 2 AFC teams picked, I'd hedge and try to at least get the $300 for Super Bowl loser with who you think will win the NFC Here are the odds from Bodog. Looks like the Saints are the best bet: 22/1 Arizona Cardinals 28/1 Baltimore Ravens 35/1 Cincinnati Bengals 10/1 Dallas Cowboys 22/1 Green Bay Packers 03/1 Indianapolis Colts 07/1 Minnesota Vikings 11/1 New England Patriots 04/1 New Orleans Saints 45/1 New York Jets 16/1 Philadelphia Eagles 07/2 San Diego Chargers SI __________________ Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!"

01-04-2010, 09:11 PM	#5
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Long before the Superdome Where the Saints of football play... Lived a city that the damned call home Hear their hellish rondelet... New Orleans! Home of pirates, drunks and whores New Orleans! Tacky overpriced souvenir stores If you want to go to hell, you should take a trip To the Sodom and Gomorrah of the Mississip' New Orleans! Stinking, Rotten, vomiting, vile New Orleans Putrid, brackish, maggotty, foul New Orleans! Crummy, lousy, rancid, and rank New Orleans Last edited by Passacaglia : 01-04-2010 at 09:11 PM.

01-04-2010, 09:12 PM	#6
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	Hi Marm. Just don't pick the Vikes. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

01-04-2010, 09:14 PM	#7
Marmel Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Manchester, CT	I'm down to NO and Minnesot as well, based off of byes, home field, Vegas odds, and settling for the Superbowl loser part of the payout. Vegas says NO, I am leaning Minnesota. Neither team inspires much confidence. I'd love to go with Green Bay or Arizona or even Philly, but I can't "waste" the third pick on those teams, can I? I also won't pick Dallas even if $300 is riding on it. __________________ 81-78 Cincinnati basketball writer P. Daugherty, "Connor Barwin playing several minutes against Syracuse is like kids with slingshots taking down Caesar's legions."

01-04-2010, 09:02 PM	#2
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	vikes or saints---tossup imo

01-04-2010, 09:53 PM	#8
SackAttack Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Green Bay, WI	Minnesota's a good team, but I don't think they're a team you can trust, if that makes any sense. Outside of them, I've got to say New Orleans has got the best shot from the NFC. I'd like to think Green Bay could get there, but I'm not convinced that the offensive line issues from the first half of the season are "fixed."

01-04-2010, 10:37 PM	#9
MizzouRah Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Troy, Mo	I don't like Dallas, but they are a scary team. My sleeper is the Jets.

01-04-2010, 10:50 PM	#10
Radii Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I would take Dallas, I really think they're playing better than anyone going into the playoffs in the NFC. If you wont' take them, Minnesota I guess!

01-04-2010, 11:29 PM	#11
Mustang Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Wisconsin	At this point, I say Minnesota or Dallas. Followed by Green Bay, New Orleans, Arizona and Philadelphia. I don't think New Orleans makes it. They could have easily went 0-5 to end the season and didn't look sharp at all. I can't forgive the Eagles for looking that bad in the last game. __________________ You, you will regret what you have done this day. I will make you regret ever being born. Your going to wish you never left your mothers womb, where it was warm and safe... and wet. i am going to show you pain you never knew existed, you are going to see a whole new spectrum of pain, like a Rainboooow. But! This rainbow is not just like any other rainbow, its...

01-05-2010, 12:24 AM	#12
jbergey22 Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Minnesota	Vikings havent lost a turf game all year(10-0 on turf) which is a nice set up for them to get to the Super Bowl. I think the Vikings at best you will get a 2nd place finish because the Super Bowl is on grass as far as I know and they are terrible on grass(2-4 on grass). Patriots or Saints are riskier picks but they have a stronger possibility of winning the SB. With Welker really hurting the Pats Id probably go New Orleans New England Minnesota Packers as the best long shot IMO I pretty much threw out the NFC East right away as their record against non-divisional opponents that made the playoffs is bad. Cardinals, Jets and Bengals are on shaky ground for one reason or another. San Diego wont make the SB are far over valued according to them odds IMO. Last edited by jbergey22 : 01-05-2010 at 12:51 AM.

01-05-2010, 08:02 AM	#13
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	I suspect I put less weight into the "looking good last week" theory than many here. Overall, I don't see any of the wild card round games looking much better than a 55/45 proposition, and that means that (more or less) you're taking a pretty big risk that your clever pick of Dallas of New England or whomever seems like a novelty selection here ends up one-and-done...and at best they win their opener and than have to go and play two road games against quality teams to even get to the big game. The smart thing here is not to get too clever, and just go where the obvious play is. The bye teams. Pick whether you like Minnesota or New Orleans, and just be done with it. I'd take the Saints, myself.

01-05-2010, 08:26 AM	#14
Doug5984 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Louisiana	Don't forget the Saints were winning a lot, and by big margins until we lost both starting corners- that is when the D fell apart, both will be back for the playoffs (actually both saw a little playing time this weekend) and it allows the defense to man up on the outside and bring different blitzes and coverages, a lot of different looks that we couldn't do when we had to sign guys off the street to play CB. Our offense slowed up a good bit the last few weeks with Shockey out, he really does do a lot to open up coverage. He will be back. Reggie has been playing well and is back from his tweaked knee. Lance Moore will finally be back. Basically the Saints had a ton of injuries throughout the season, and are getting very healthy at the right time- so they could be a dangerous team...they could also be one and done... all I know is if they make it to the superbowl my savings account will take a huge hit, and I will have a shiny new fleur de lis tattoo.

01-05-2010, 08:50 AM	#16
Blackadar Retired Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fantasyland	I'd take the Vikings over the Saints. I don't like the other AFC teams. The Pats without Welker? The Jets with a rookie QB? The Ravens who finished only 9-7? Cincy who played their best football 2 months ago? Stranger things have happened, but I don't see those teams beating SD and Indy. So now we're into the NFC and someone has to make it to the Super Bowl. The most complete team to me seems to be the Vikes and they get to play in domes all the way through the playoffs. I just like the way the Vikes are built to go all the way. And as badly as the Vikes have slumped at the end of this year, the Saints have looked worse. I don't like the chances of any of other remaining NFC teams - save Arizona - coming into one of the domes and beating the Vikes/Saints on their turf.

01-05-2010, 09:07 AM	#17
albionmoonlight Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: North Carolina	I think that the Saints are the best pick of the teams remaining. I just can't imagine Favre/Childress not screwing something up with two games in which to do it. I also like Dallas a lot--and if the NFC playoffs were all at neutral sites, I might go with them--but I think that the obvious structural advantages that the Saints have (one less game and home field advantage) put them over the top.

01-05-2010, 09:29 AM	#18
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	I have to say the Saints just look like a one-and-done team to me. Whether they've hit a wall or people have figured them out, they just haven't been playing good ball for a few games now. Interesting point about the corners being out but I don't see that turning the entire team around... we'll see. Minnesota and Dallas seem to have the same issue to me, gunslinger QB's with a history of doing interesting things in big games and questionable coaching. I think Tubby is a better coach than Childress and Favre and Romo are probably about the same on loseagameability, I'm close to leaning towards picking the Cowboys but I think Minnesota has the better defense and has to play one game less, so let's pick the Vikings. Vikings - Colts Super Bowl.

01-05-2010, 10:06 AM	#20
albionmoonlight Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: North Carolina	Saints fans (like most fans) are passionate but fickle. The one thing that could really hurt the Saints is if they play a team with an explosive offense like Green Bay or Arizona and get down early by two scores. I could see--after the last month--the fans starting to tighten up and boo and generally turn home field into a disadvantage. All that said, a team does not win 13 games in a row because they are easily trounced. "Momentum" has some meaning in sports, but it isn't like all of the players and coaches from the first 3/4 of the season are no longer on the team. Peter King called them an X-factor, and I think that is the best way to describe it. I have no idea how they will do in the playoffs, but if I had to bet (and I am glad that I don't have to bet), I think that they win two home games in a somewhat weak NFC and go to the Super Bowl.

01-05-2010, 10:22 AM	#21
GreenMonster High School Varsity Join Date: Mar 2005	I can't believe nobody here is touting the Chargers. They have won 11 in a row, don't have a ton of injuries, and get a 1st round bye. What have the Saints or Vikings done lately that everyone is hitching to there bandwagons.

01-05-2010, 11:07 AM	#24
flere-imsaho Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Chicagoland	Wild Card Dallas over Philadelphia Arizona over Green Bay Baltimore over New England NY Jets over Cincinnati Divisional Round Minnesota over Dallas New Orleans over Arizona San Diego over Baltimore NY Jets over Indianapolis Championship Round New Orleans over Minnesota San Diego over NY Jets Super Bowl San Diego over New Orleans

01-05-2010, 11:49 AM	#28
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	One man's opinion: -Jets over Bengals -Patriots over Ravens -Packers over Cardinals -Cowboys over Eagles -Chargers over Patriots -Colts over Jets -Cowboys over Vikings -Packers over Saints -Chargers over Colts -Packers over Cowboys -Chargers over Packers Last edited by molson : 01-05-2010 at 11:49 AM.

01-05-2010, 11:53 AM	#30
Doug5984 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Louisiana	A lot of people say the Saints haven't been playing great, and they will be one and done- but then go on to say the Vikings will make it. They lost 3 of the last 5, and really 3 of the last 4 until they had to play a Giants team that packed in early. Can't underestimate the importance of getting the corners, and DT (Porter, Greer, & Ellis) back. It pains me to say this but the teams I am most worried about are Eagles and Cowboys, I'm pulling for the Cowboys week 1 so we can face the Cards or Pack on a short week- let the other teams battle it out then we'd get to play the next winner at home, and anything can happen.

01-05-2010, 12:30 PM	#36
Blackadar Retired Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fantasyland	The thing that scares me about the Colts is that they really didn't play anyone. It was the same thing I said about the Patsies a couple of years ago. The teams the Colts played with a winning record are Arizona (10-6), Houston x 2 (9-7), New England (10-6), Baltimore (9-7) and the New York Jets (9-7). That's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents. I know not to bet against Peyton Manning, so if I had first pick I'd probably take the Colts. But I'm just unconvinced that they're as good as their record indicates. Their point differential is just 5th in the AFC (behind the Patriots, Chargers, Ravens and the Jets) and 9th in the NFL. Between that and a rushing offense that ranked dead last in the NFL, I'm just skeptical of 'em. I've always believed that point differential + strength of schedule are pretty telling stats on how good a team really is. For example, Pittsburgh was +124 in points against the most difficult schedule in the year last year, so going into the playoffs it was pretty clear that they were a front-runner. FYI, the Bengals have the worst point differential of any team in the playoffs at a paltry +14. The next worst is Arizona (+50) and then Philly (+92). That's a shocking stat and suggests that the Bengals may be a one-and-done team in these playoffs. Then again, Arizona went into the playoffs last year at +1 and got to the Super Bowl. That's why they play the games...

01-05-2010, 01:14 PM	#37
B & B College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: A sports era long ago when everything didnt require a Nike logo	I have the Saints vs. Chargers as my SB prediction FWIW. __________________ Nobody cares about Kyle Orton because he's black. -PT

01-05-2010, 05:40 PM	#38
Marmel Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Manchester, CT	I went back and forth a few times between NO and Minnesota before finally settling on Minnesota. I'm not entirely happy with the pick, but it had to be an NFC team, it had to be a team with a bye, and in a head to head match up, I'll go with Minnesota over NO by a hair. Both teams have their warts, and maybe MIN has more of them, but it is too late. Good discussion though, thanks for the input. __________________ 81-78 Cincinnati basketball writer P. Daugherty, "Connor Barwin playing several minutes against Syracuse is like kids with slingshots taking down Caesar's legions."

01-05-2010, 05:59 PM	#39
MizzouRah Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Troy, Mo	Anyone who thinks Cincinnatti is going to beat the Jets, needs help.

01-07-2010, 07:31 AM	#41
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	Cinci beats Philadlephia to win it all! __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

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