Werewolf XXXIII: To Crown a King 2 (Game Over)

[Chief Rum]

You know, with this many factions, it wouldn't surprise me if st. cronin's fear comes true again, and some nobles mistake or simply miss their leader's message intent or message altogether, thus causing havoc in that faction's dealings.

Even if everyone gets it right, it has to be downright confusing with so many factions. Does anyone who played in the last TACK have any tips for how to handle things in this one?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I don't think it is to our advantage to start outing faction members at this point, and I still don't have high confidence on some of the factions.

Fair enough - just curious who people think I might be aligned with as I have a fairly large body of work today to review.

[Qwikshot]

vote jail bullet

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by BrianD

It probably wouldn't hurt us to know. Do you have an idea of how to figure it out without guessing at a probably number of total "villagers"?

With 19 total villagers...
2 factions of 7 each would give 14 villagers and 5 assassins
2 factions of 8 each would give 16 villagers and 3 assassins
(I think the factions are unrealistically large, plus the rules about "tolerated" factions suggest that there are more than two.)

3 factions of 5 each would give 15 villagers and 4 assassins
(I think this is unlikely, because it would most likely make toleration go in circles, with A tolerates B and not C, B tolerates C and not A, etc.)

4 factions of 4 each would give 16 villagers and 3 assassins
(I think this is the most likely, with two factions semi-allied.)

[hoopsguy]

Chief, the biggest piece of advice I can give is that we need to get to the math portion of the game as quickly as possible. With that in mind, our default behavior for jailed people should be to execute. Obviously if there is compelling evidence to free someone we should do that, but by taking a "default execute" stance we accomplish a couple of things:

1.) Put the assassins on notice that if one of their members is locked up then they have one night to free him
2.) We start getting statistical information in the game - a huge plus if we are making headway on identifying the memberships

I would strongly encourage you to read the last game - Dubb and I were whacked on Night 1 because the assassins realized how damaging the statistical analysis of the votes could be to their cause. I realize that Barkeep has changed the game since then, but until I see otherwise I will continue to hold the posted numbers as the highest value information in the game.

Sorry if this sounds unduly ruthless.

[hoopsguy]

MrW, you bring up a good point on the tolerated factions - I have not seen any information at all that lets me know what factions are tolerated by our merry band of nobles.

Blade, was "tolerance" a mechanic in the BGG version of the game? If so, how did it play out?

[Mr. Wednesday]

The math will play a lot differently this time around, I should think, with the assassins now accumulating their own point total. We won't have the "missing" points to go on that were in the last game.

[hoopsguy]

One way to hint at the number of factions is for people to suggest how many people they think are in their own factions. Collectively, we may be able to drill down with this information towards an average value and then work from there to get a more true understanding of the factions/assassin ratings.

The trouble is that I am not sure we will have equal numbers within each faction. It makes the most sense to do this, but 19 is an awkward number ...

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

With 19 total villagers...
2 factions of 7 each would give 14 villagers and 5 assassins
2 factions of 8 each would give 16 villagers and 3 assassins
(I think the factions are unrealistically large, plus the rules about "tolerated" factions suggest that there are more than two.)

3 factions of 5 each would give 15 villagers and 4 assassins
(I think this is unlikely, because it would most likely make toleration go in circles, with A tolerates B and not C, B tolerates C and not A, etc.)

4 factions of 4 each would give 16 villagers and 3 assassins
(I think this is the most likely, with two factions semi-allied.)

I was actually thinking 4 factions of 4, or 3 factions of 5...mainly for the reasons you listed above.

[hoopsguy]

Wednesday, I'm sure it will be different with the assassins in their own faction. But if they are driving towards a negative value, then we will still be able to draw some conclusions about the team with the fewest points. And even better conclusions if we are able to put together reasonable assumptions about the other faction memberships - which starts with having a feel for how many factions are out there.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So, do people think it is to our advantage to know how many factions are out there? If so, I've got a thought on how to start moving in that direction now rather than waiting until after the first execution to maybe learn that info ...

Why would that be to our advantage? Wouldn't it be more advantageous to the assasins?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

MrW, you bring up a good point on the tolerated factions - I have not seen any information at all that lets me know what factions are tolerated by our merry band of nobles.

Blade, was "tolerance" a mechanic in the BGG version of the game? If so, how did it play out?

Here is the link to the game...path could say much better then I as he played in it, but since he is not playing let me give it my best shot:
http://www.boardgamegeek.com/article/846896#846896

Here was the final role list for that game:
Sly Assassin Beowulf
Assassin Shugyosha
Efficient Assassin Oilslider
A Faction Leader Janiera
A Belash
A Fast Talking Noble/Vengeful Assassin Royalflush
A Warrior Noble Runningquick
A Rukasu
B Faction Leader (original) Melsana
B Cocky Noble/Faction Leader Elbear
B Sneaky Noble/Fast Talking Noble Ithicks
B BagpipeDan
B Seamusk
C Faction Leader (black mailed) Melissa
C Xandryyte
C Fast Talking Noble/Rich Noble/Clever Assassin Path12
C Talgian
C Wise Noble/Lucky Noble Arkibet


I took the tolerated factions to mean we have a couple factions(read 3-6), but one of the factions was the assasin faction. I just assumed the fact they earn points means they are their own faction, as it would be unfair for them to be within our own factions and recieve our messages. Therefore, i took tolerated to simply mean one of the human factions.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, my thought is that we need to understand the structure of the game more than they do. They know their own membership with 100% certainty and we do not. All they are worried about is damaging the faction that is closest to victory - does that fundamentally change if there are 5 factions instead of 3?

But I posed the question because I wanted other people's thoughts on the issue. How do you think it would be more advantageous to the assassins?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Why would that be to our advantage? Wouldn't it be more advantageous to the assasins?

I'm up in the air about information on faction membership; it gives the assassins a target list, but also significantly improves our voting odds, provided we're accurate.

As far as quantity of factions vs. assassins, I see no disadvantage whatsoever to the nobles in having that out there.

Barkeep has stated clearly that it is possible for some nobles to lose without the assassins winning, which I take to be a strong indication that that "non-tolerated" does not refer exclusively to the assassins.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, that means that when a particular faction approaches victory, nobles in opposed factions may wind up having to walk the fine line between stopping them and handing the game to the assassins.

[st.cronin]

Well, at any rate, I don't have any idea how many people are in my faction, and while several people have come CLOSE to making me think they are in my faction, there is only one that I would be confident enough about to actively defend. I don't have any idea how MANY factions there are. 3 or 4 would be my best guess.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Votes updated, including non-votes, as of Post #289:

Bullet 4 -- Hoops (240), Cronin (270), Blade (272), NTN (289)
Blade 3 -- Anxiety (139), MrW (179), WVU (193)
Cronin 2 -- Bullet (209), LSG (282)
Hoops 1 -- Rum (135)
Ntdeacon 1 -- DC (238)
MrW 1 -- Lathum (283)
Lathum 1 -- RealDeal (286)

Not voted - Qwikshot, Bek, Grey, Fouts, King, BrianD

I have Qwik voting for Bullet, Fouts voting for Qwik, and Grey voting for Fouts. Giving Bullet a 5-4 edge over Blade.

[st.cronin]

dola, sorry 5-3

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I have Qwik voting for Bullet, Fouts voting for Qwik, and Grey voting for Fouts. Giving Bullet a 5-4 edge over Blade.

Where does that 4th vote come from on me? I see it as 5-3

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

vote jail fouts

more of a vengeance vote than anything as the guy never trusts me.

That isn't going to help me trust you.

[Blade6119]

nm lol

[hoopsguy]

Quote:


That isn't going to help me trust you.

FWIW, I struggle with trust issues around Fouts as well. Although I made a very serious effort last game to work through them.

[st.cronin]

By the way, I think there is a fairly decent chance that grey actually is an assasin - better than the normal day 1 crapshoot, anyway. Everybody has at least one person cleared, and while the assasins still have the ability to move the vote, I think if votes started piling up on one of their own, they wouldn't have a play.

Basically, if the usual day 1 vote has a 1% chance of hitting a badguy, I think this game's odds are more like 2.5%.

[hoopsguy]

Grey or Bullet? Just checking to see if I'm following you correctly.

[st.cronin]

Sorry, bullet - I always get those two confused.

[Chief Rum]

I have reason to believe, based on my initial PM, that there are at least five and maybe even six factions, most likely with three members each. It's just a guess, but I think we are operating with a ton of factions here.

[WVUFAN]

This is terribly confusing.

[Chief Rum]

It's voting time isn't it? 9:30 p.m. EST?

[Mr. Wednesday]

We're in the limbo between the voting deadline and Barkeep officially kicking off the night cycle.

[Barkeep49]

Ok official results up shortly. It'll be quick tonight as I don't have to do any point totaling right away, but on any night with an execution give me at least a half hour to figure out the points.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, when you do post point totals will it only be reflecting the person who was executed? Or will they also include a person who was jailed on that same day?

[Barkeep49]

The history books have been opened. There are several among you who think there is a great deal to be learned from the past. And intent on doing so there is an active discussion for the first day. After seeming like it was going to be a see-saw between the grizzled Blade and Hoops instead things turned in a different direction towards Bulletsponge. At the end of the day it was bulletsponge who found himself being led away to the jail.

What will tomorrow bring? If nothing else twice the decision. Who do you send to jail next? And what do you do with the person sitting in jail?

Final Vote Count and order

Chief Rum Hoopsguy
Anxiety Blade
Mr. Wednesday Blade
WVUFan Blade
Bulletsponge Cronin
Dodgerchick Ntndeacon
Hoopsguy Bulletsponge
st.cronin bulletsponge
Blade6119 bulletsponge
Lonestargirl cronin
Lathum Mr. Wednesday
RealDeal Lathum
Ntndeacon Bulletsponge
BrianD Chief
Fouts Qwikshot
Greyroofoo Fouts
Qwikshot Bulletsponge

Bulletsponge 5 – Hoopsguy, stcronin, blade, ntn, qwikshot
Blade 3 – Anxiety, Mr. Wednesday, WVU
Cronin 2 – Bullet, Lonestar
Chief 1 – Brian
Fouts 1 – Greyroofoo
Hoopsguy 1 – Chief Rum
Lathum 1 – Real Deal
NTNDeacon 1 – Dodgerchick
Qwikshot 1 – Fouts
Mr. Wednesday 1 - Lathum

No votes: Bek, Lathum, King

[Greyroofoo]

Did Bek, Lathum, or King ever check in?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, when you do post point totals will it only be reflecting the person who was executed? Or will they also include a person who was jailed on that same day?

Thanks for asking. That was a rule that didn't make its way into the final rules. All jail points will lag a day before being reflected. So if you Jail a person on Day 2, the points for that, good or bad, won't be shown until the next time a person is executed (Day 3 at the earliest).

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, I just read the thread and am going in a different direction. He has been all over the place and for me that is a little strange on day one, it seems he may be trying to force people to tip their hand.

VOTE JAIL MRWEDNESDAY

I believe Lathum got his vote in during Post #283 - so just Bek and King that did not vote today.

[Lathum]

WTF. post #283 I voted for Mr Wed?

[Chief Rum]

So we really learn nothing here. I can see this will be a slow developing game.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Lathum

WTF. post #283 I voted for Mr Wed?

My apologies. Updated now.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

My apologies. Updated now.

Lets get it right Mr. Moderator.

[Barkeep49]

If you notice one faction tomorrow with -25 points that's Lathum's faction. There's a secret "make a snide remark to the GM" penalty.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Bulletsponge 5 – Hoopsguy, stcronin, blade, ntn, qwikshot
Blade 3 – Anxiety, Mr. Wednesday, WVU
Cronin 2 – Bullet, Lonestar
Chief 1 – Brian
Fouts 1 – Greyroofoo
Hoopsguy 1 – Chief Rum
Lathum 1 – Real Deal
NTNDeacon 1 – Dodgerchick
Fouts 1 – Qwikshot
Mr. Wednesday 1 - Lathum

Which one did he vote for?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

Which one did he vote for?

Fouts voted for Qwikshot and Qwikshot voted for bullet.

That's one reason I'm putting the raw vote log. To figure out who is executed and such I simply do a sort and count and I base all points off the log. I am normally a good record keeper, but my transcription into a tally can sometimes be off. So flipping Fouts and Qwikshot is something I've, unfortunately, proven prone to do. Missing a vote, is not.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Fouts voted for Qwikshot and Qwikshot voted for bullet.

That's one reason I'm putting the raw vote log. To figure out who is executed and such I simply do a sort and count and I base all points off the log. I am normally a good record keeper, but my transcription into a tally can sometimes be off. So flipping Fouts and Qwikshot is something I've, unfortunately, proven prone to do. Missing a vote, is not.

That's cool. I wasn't being sarcastic, I just wanted to be clear on how the vote went. :-)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

That's cool. I wasn't being sarcastic, I just wanted to be clear on how the vote went. :-)

Sarcastic or not I wanted to give a good explanation since the votes are more important in this game than most.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The history books have been opened. There are several among you who think there is a great deal to be learned from the past. And intent on doing so there is an active discussion for the first day. After seeming like it was going to be a see-saw between the grizzled Blade and Hoops instead things turned in a different direction towards Bulletsponge. At the end of the day it was bulletsponge who found himself being led away to the jail.

What will tomorrow bring? If nothing else twice the decision. Who do you send to jail next? And what do you do with the person sitting in jail?

Final Vote Count and order



Bulletsponge 5 – Hoopsguy, stcronin, blade, ntn, qwikshot
Blade 3 – Anxiety, Mr. Wednesday, WVU
Cronin 2 – Bullet, Lonestar
Chief 1 – Brian
Fouts 1 – Greyroofoo
Hoopsguy 1 – Chief Rum
Lathum 1 – Real Deal
NTNDeacon 1 – Dodgerchick
Qwikshot 1 – Fouts
Mr. Wednesday 1 - Lathum

No votes: Bek, Lathum, King

Awww screw all of you! how can i get out of jail? i better not drop the soap

[bulletsponge]

someone post my bail. all they want is 1 testical, please i dont want to spend the night guarding my tight behind

[bulletsponge]

ohh i see how it it. throw me in jail and ignore me then. if one of yall get thrown in here tomorow ill make you my b***h

[bulletsponge]

[st.cronin]

lol

[LoneStarGirl]

Wow, I am finally through catching up. I think once tomorrow hits and we see the points it will clear a lot up. Right now I am a little on the lost side, but im sure it will all unravel soon.