Werewolf LVI: Beneath the Iron Cross - GAME OVER, VILLAGERS WIN!

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonColt

if ntn's "reveal" is false he will for sure be lynched next week....

Which if he's the Cultist would be as good as he can do almost. If we started 14-3, we're all of the sudden 8-3 in a hurry if we lynch Hoops then NTN.

Not that I think there is necessarily enough worry there to not vote Hoops.

[ArlingtonColt]

If hoops is the Alpha wolf, then it would bring credence to my Eaglefan theory because I know hoops and him had a thing going last game... Eagle has never been a wolf so maybe he would "show him the ropes" so to speak

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Kill PurdueBrad? Moi? (look of shock)

This claim is outrageous. NTN, please check your PM again and make sure that you have the correct name. I expect a complete and utter retraction.

You are right. It did not say Hoops. It said Hoopsguy instead. Unfortunate for you there will be no retraction.

[ArlingtonColt]

Another thing i just thought about... if ntn is the Rabid Werewolf (assuming it exists) then he could be shooting for a possible 3 to 1 here (hoops lynch, wolf kill, ntn kill, ntn death) which WOULD make some sense.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonColt

Another thing i just thought about... if ntn is the Rabid Werewolf (assuming it exists) then he could be shooting for a possible 3 to 1 here (hoops lynch, wolf kill, ntn kill, ntn death) which WOULD make some sense.

In such a situation, two of the three kills you mentioned would happen anyway.

[RealDeal]

but the wolf kill happens no matter what and a rabid werewolf kill would happen no matter what eventually too, right?

[RealDeal]

dola, I just dont see any point in trying to out-think ourselves here, considering we don't have much other good info.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

dola, I just dont see any point in trying to out-think ourselves here, considering we don't have much other good info.

I agree that we should keep our votes on Hoops for this one. But I think we should keep our theories open if Hoops comes up anything other than Wolf at his scanitization or whatever it's called.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by saldana

[/b]

i think this is a bit harsh, considering how many day one votes end up being a villager vs villager situation, and you voted for the seer

but sure, i will explain....

in post 267 PB voted for AC

post 271, barkeep posts the wrong vote count at the same time i voted for AC in post 272

when i saw barkeeps post, i thought i created a tie, so i unvoted AC and voted cronin, (post 277) thinking that i was breaking a tie, but in fact, was creating it instead.

AC then showed up, and since i was now annoyed at the situation, decided to just let him break the tie himself

you seem to be ingoring the fact that I unvoted the seer and kept him out of the lynch, as he would have lost the tiebreaker, but would rather stress the fact that i was the deciding vote on day 1.

I actually didn't intend for that to sound accusatory -- more like surprised that you didn't know "whose switch" I was talking about.

No, I was not ignoring the fact that you unvoted the seer. Like I said, I think it's a good wolf play to do that -- and from the looks of it, hoopsguy agrees with me.

When I saw your votes last night, I was suspicious that you were focusing on trying to save AC at the last minute in a blur of confusion. If you read what I've been saying today, I'm not really suspecting AC anymore, which means I'm not suspecting you either.

[RealDeal]

I agree that unvoting the seer is at this point not an indication of being a good guy and may, in fact, be just the opposite in light of how the night kill panned out. From the wolves' perspective, getting the seer and a second villager is as good as they can do night one, and they would be more and less indifferent to the seer dying from the lynch or the wolf kill.

[Antmeister]

Wow...2 of us are already dead and I didn't expect a Seer or Fool at all. I am hoping that ntndeacon is not a liar and will have to go with it.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Barkeep49]

Vote hoopsguy

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Barkeep49]

So I still really like hoops' list of big names/small names and in fact like it in some ways even more now that i know that he's a wolf. The reason is that hoops likes to include as much truth out there as possible. It's why he he's such a good wolf, since there is so little variance between his villager game and wolf game.

I think it's unlikely we're looking at the cultist fake reveal given these circumstances. If that's the case then Arlington and Pass are very suspicious.

[DaddyTorgo]

voting hoops for obvious reasons...did I miss the post where PB basically revealed or something? I'm slightly confused

anyways...makes me look prescient with my day 1 comment about the list if this is true

[EagleFan]

Looks like a rough first day/night. I'm at work now and major meetings going on all day. This is a rare downtime for me. It does look like a positive came out of yesterday and that is finding hoops.

I don't see why ntn would lie about this so early in the game so it looks like we have one wolf nailed. I was hoping to look over yesterday a little better as I had suspicions about hoops as he seemed to be a lot more talkative than in the other game I remember him from (he may have been in my second but I was killed off quickly so I don't remember who was who).

With that said, I was also suspicious of Purdue's vote where he labeled me as his reason. It just seemed like an NC kind of thing from my first game where he jumped on others' votes.

Arlington's votes look a little suspicious but I am a little gunshy in suspecting him as I suspected him in my first game and that turned out to just be a bad read.

I really feel like I should apologize for not having as much time as I hoped so far. My internal demo is now pushed back to this evening and I don't know when we'll be done so I will vote in my next post. It looks like it has become and easy choice, as long as ntn isn't lying to us.

[EagleFan]

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, going back to an earlier topic - the people likely to be picked as wolves. I'm not sure how much value there is in this without knowing who is the alpha wolf, but here are my expanded thoughts on the player list and viability as a wolf selection:

The overriding factor in picking wolves should be to avoid getting scanned. Without a seer scan to get a wolf, the wolves have to feel good about their ability to manipulate a vote when in a pinch. So picking vets is tricky - if it was me doing the picking I would either avoid this list entirely or pick at max one person from here.

Likely to be early scan: Hoops, Barkeep, Chief Rum, Cronin, Path, Saldana, Pass

Does this make these people less likely to be picked as wolves? Depends on who is doing the picking - getting the Alpha early in this game should provide a lot of insight.

There is also a fairly good chance that the people in the above list will be early night kills if they are not villagers, based upon past games.

So if hoops comes up alpha, this post becomes very interesting.

Neon, if I understand your rules correctly, the alpha would be revealed upon death, right?

[hoopsguy]

For those of you who are trying to come up with scenarios where NTN is angle-shooting here, save your time. I'm a wolf. Good job, NTN. The Witness role sucks, is unbalanced, and should not be part of Werewolf games.

NTN, I am curious why you decided to play it straight-forward instead of seeing if you could get people to come after me today or tomorrow at latest? If the positions were reversed (you as wolf, me as witness), I would likely have tried hard to conceal my role but still blaze a trail that made it patently clear if I was night-killed.

[hoopsguy]

Pass suggested it was a good play to unvote the seer. Yep, it did a couple of things for me:
1.) Helped keep him from a public reveal, which decreased the chances of running into the bodyguard when we went after him
2.) Made me look pretty good when he came up dead ("see, I knew he was the seer and tried to protect him!")

Now, if you want to speculate on whether we (wolves) coordinated our moves in trying to save Brad, feel free. There certainly are some interesting vote movements in that last hour, right?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

So if hoops comes up alpha, this post becomes very interesting.

Neon, if I understand your rules correctly, the alpha would be revealed upon death, right?

Interesting indeed. I did the kill last night because I viewed myself as the most expendable member of our team. If we got away with killing the seer early, then I was going to have fun playing this one out. If I was exposed getting rid of the seer, then I was probably going to find heat soon enough anyway.

So, lets work with the idea that I am the alpha and that I hand-picked my roster. Would I have posted my ideas in a 100% genuine fashion?

Barkeep suggests that I tell the truth a lot as a wolf. Guilty as charged. But I probably would try to avoid giving you the actual combination to the safe, right? I'm looking forward to seeing just how much credence you give this in the days to come.

[hoopsguy]

Back in a minute, I need to go clean out my PMs. It appears that my fellow wolves have some thoughts to share with me.

That part is always a nuisance about being a wolf ...

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This happens to Cronin more than a lot of other people.

word

[saldana]

unvote antmeister
vote hoopsguy

[saldana]

i guess NTN answered the question of whether the wolves got the clues from Brad

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep suggests that I tell the truth a lot as a wolf. Guilty as charged. But I probably would try to avoid giving you the actual combination to the safe, right? I'm looking forward to seeing just how much credence you give this in the days to come.

I have some more thoughts on this now that we know that hoops is a wolf. Several people commented on the somewhat weird inclusion of Pass on that list to the exclusion of DT. DT's reaction just didn't feel right.

But overall I think that the list gives us good value. The big question is do we see 3 wolves or 4?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

For those of you who are trying to come up with scenarios where NTN is angle-shooting here, save your time. I'm a wolf. Good job, NTN. The Witness role sucks, is unbalanced, and should not be part of Werewolf games.

NTN, I am curious why you decided to play it straight-forward instead of seeing if you could get people to come after me today or tomorrow at latest? If the positions were reversed (you as wolf, me as witness), I would likely have tried hard to conceal my role but still blaze a trail that made it patently clear if I was night-killed.

Well basically I wanted it out there as soon as possible. Plus I was unsure whether you had seen me out there and was going to lead a lynch against me. Plus I felt leading folks into you would do nothing but paint me as guilty, as you had looked so much like a villager.

[oliegirl]

Vote Hoopsguy

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I have some more thoughts on this now that we know that hoops is a wolf. Several people commented on the somewhat weird inclusion of Pass on that list to the exclusion of DT. DT's reaction just didn't feel right.

But overall I think that the list gives us good value. The big question is do we see 3 wolves or 4?

Hmm. 3 wolves is 1 in 6. 4 is just about 1 in 4. If the former I would expect the more specialized wolf roles in play (the ones who can't be seen for example). If the latter I think we've got more villager special roles in play.

[hoopsguy]

Sure, but you go after me with a complete single-mindedness that leaves little doubt when your role is revealed on death and you accomplish the same thing.

Plus the wolves would be squirming trying to figure out if you were witness, seer, or just reading the tea leaves correctly. It would be much more likely to impact their play. Here we just roll up our sleeves and move on, rather than wasting any energy trying to figure it out.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So, lets work with the idea that I am the alpha and that I hand-picked my roster. Would I have posted my ideas in a 100% genuine fashion?

I think I know you well enough to know that you're going to love watching us trying to figure that out in the next few days......

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I have some more thoughts on this now that we know that hoops is a wolf. Several people commented on the somewhat weird inclusion of Pass on that list to the exclusion of DT. DT's reaction just didn't feel right.

But overall I think that the list gives us good value. The big question is do we see 3 wolves or 4?

my first thought is 3 but I could see some other possibilities

add a cultist
add a person who becomes a wolf (forgot that role name)
or add a 4th wolf

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Plus the wolves would be squirming trying to figure out if you were witness, seer, or just reading the tea leaves correctly. It would be much more likely to impact their play. Here we just roll up our sleeves and move on, rather than wasting any energy trying to figure it out.

You're very hard to kill without being witnessed in one way or the other. I can see why ntn played it the way he did.

[hoopsguy]

Villager Point of View: got a wolf out of the way on Day 2, we are looking good!

Wolf Point of View: got a seer/fool out of the way + the witness used his power by end of Night 1. Slowly but surely whittling away roles that will slow us down.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

I think I know you well enough to know that you're going to love watching us trying to figure that out in the next few days......

You've got a few hours to press me on this matter right now, if you are so inclined.

Every time I put this offer out there I get fewer takers than I would expect. I'm waiting for someone else to do this as a wolf in a game where I'm a villager. I think it would be a lot of fun to pick the wolf's brain.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Sure, but you go after me with a complete single-mindedness that leaves little doubt when your role is revealed on death and you accomplish the same thing.

Plus the wolves would be squirming trying to figure out if you were witness, seer, or just reading the tea leaves correctly. It would be much more likely to impact their play. Here we just roll up our sleeves and move on, rather than wasting any energy trying to figure it out.

I see your point.

[hoopsguy]

Might as well have conversations about this if I'm not going to try and bluff my way out of this one. But I honestly couldn't come up with a good lie in about 10-15 minutes. It is Day 2, what would your endgame be in terms of deception here.

If anyone else thinks that there was a convincing counter-claim that I could have made here I would be interested in hearing it.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Might as well have conversations about this if I'm not going to try and bluff my way out of this one. But I honestly couldn't come up with a good lie in about 10-15 minutes. It is Day 2, what would your endgame be in terms of deception here.

If anyone else thinks that there was a convincing counter-claim that I could have made here I would be interested in hearing it.

Yeah, there wouldn't be much aside from pushing NTN as the cultist, but that wouldn't really sway me anyways.

As far as you and your list, I'm not buying it. Presuming you're the Alpha, I read that list as an intentional diversionary tactic to be pointed at later on to aid confusion, since you likely knew you'd be playing a vocal game and knew the witness might see you make the first kill (I think right near/before that you mentioned you don't like the Witness role).

I think us using your list would be a help to the wolves that remain. It's like baseball, if the catcher tells the hitter "Here comes the fastball" it changes the whole game from what's he throwing to is he telling me the truth, and if so, why?

[hoopsguy]

In fairness, I mentioned the witness thing when I saw it was in the game. If you track the posts earlier in the game, that should back this statement up. I didn't see "Oh, I'm the alpha wolf - let me complain about a role that could hurt me later".

As far as the list, I'm fine with you using it or ignoring it. Whatever works for you. I posted it knowing that there was a good chance it would come up later in the game at some point.

Maybe I would tell you that the fastball is coming because I don't think you can hit it anyway?

[RealDeal]

It's my big thing in WW games, so I'll take this time to say that NT made a good play getting this out early. He not only rids us of a wolf early, but he also gives us a confirmed good guy early. This makes the first 9 pages of posts more valuable since we have a reference point.

Witness is a one time use ability, exactly what you would want to get out there sooner rather than later.

I think that playing it like Hoops suggested is a bad move. Let's say nt got this info and then held on to for a few turns. He could go after Hoops real hard, but if he got wolf-killed the info gets sort of lost in the static, and Hoops would just say he is a villager that the wolves are trying to set up.
We've all seen this before: someone goes after someone else real hard, one of the two gets wolf-killed, and the other is either innocent but was set up, or guilty, but claims he was set up.

If the seer is still alive, the witness holding out increases the chance that the seer wastes a turn scanning someone the witness already knows about.

Also we would waste more days titty-fighting and doing blind lynches, which is especially useless when the seer may be dead.

At this point, I know that nt is a good guy and that we've killed a wolf who left us many posts to review for clues. If the wolves killed the fool and not the seer, the seer knows two people not to scan. Tonight we will know hoops' role, which will also be useful.

My biggest frustation in WW wis everyone holding out until Day 5 or 6, hoping they can "solve" the game all at once and be a hero. In the meantime, all the roleless villagers are calling each other wolves and guessing with nothing to work with.

[RendeR]

What he said ^

[RendeR]

UNVOTE ARLINGTONCOLT

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[jeheinz72]

Yeah, now that I look back you posted about the role before Alpha was named. So forget that!

What I don't get is, why. If you are the Alpha Wolf, why would you post a list detailing your process? Here are quotes I glean from your posts on the topic:

"I would expect that a veteran player would want to avoid picking other vets"

"The overriding factor in picking wolves should be to avoid getting scanned"

"if it was me doing the picking I would either avoid this list entirely or pick at max one person from here"

The List - Hoops, Barkeep, Chief Rum, Cronin, Path, Saldana, Pass

"If someone noticeable is the Alpha, I think the last thing they would want to do is grab another "noticeable" player"

"hypothetically, there is no way that I would grab Barkeep as a wolf teammate if I was playing as the Alpha Wolf"

So that tells me that either

A) You either followed this to a T or
B) You picked all noticable players.

[oliegirl]

"if it was me doing the picking I would either avoid this list entirely or pick at max one person from here"

The List - Hoops, Barkeep, Chief Rum, Cronin, Path, Saldana, Pass

If Hoops is the Alpha Wolf then this is genius, b/c he probably picked off that list and figured it would throw us off all of those people so could go around and do their thing without worrying about being lynched...

[hoopsguy]

Well, you will find out in a few hours if I am the Alpha Wolf. I'll tell you right now that I am, but I could be lying, right?

I think there is probably another option:
C) I followed this pretty closely, with one or two exceptions

If I told you it was in fact choice C would you believe me?

Also, the whole "getting scanned" thing might not be a concern at this point - I'm hoping that PurdueBrad is the seer that he was revealed to be upon death. Because then without a seer or a witness you guys will have to do some old-fashioned detective work to find the remaining wolves. And history has shown that this is a lot harder than it sounds.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, you will find out in a few hours if I am the Alpha Wolf. I'll tell you right now that I am, but I could be lying, right?

I think there is probably another option:
C) I followed this pretty closely, with one or two exceptions

If I told you it was in fact choice C would you believe me?

Well C is a bit of a misnomer. As Alpha Wolf you picked -at most- 3 people, possibly only 2. So if you made an exception or two, I'd liken that to "the list means nothing".

[hoopsguy]

Olie, here is a hint on my list: I didn't pick Cronin or myself off that list

So that leaves Barkeep, Chief Rum, Path, Saldana, and Pass. I recommend that you move forward with lynching one of them each day until you find all the folks there that I did bring over to the dark side.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well C is a bit of a misnomer. As Alpha Wolf you picked -at most- 3 people, possibly only 2. So if you made an exception or two, I'd liken that to "the list means nothing".

I didn't mean that I made an exception or two on picks from the list, but instead the quotes you listed actually representing my choices. That I didn't follow everything I posted verbatim - that would be just dumb, right? right?

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

You've got a few hours to press me on this matter right now, if you are so inclined.

Every time I put this offer out there I get fewer takers than I would expect. I'm waiting for someone else to do this as a wolf in a game where I'm a villager. I think it would be a lot of fun to pick the wolf's brain.

OK, I'll bite (so to speak). I'm hoops, and I'm the Alpha. Who do I choose and why?

Assumption #1: I am not going to survive the game. Being a prime conversation driver, and also one of the better players here, I'm going to get scanned early.

Assumption #2: There are others in the game who number 1 applies to, though to a far lesser extent. I want to be careful about picking those people.

Assumption #3: However, I do not think it's fair to pick just folks who won't be around or have a very limited presence. It doesn't meet my scale of 'fairness', plus I believe that in order to win wolves need to be around to pay attention and bounce strategies off one another.

Assumption #4: Since I do believe I'm going to die early in this game, I do want one experienced person I trust to help the other wolves......but only one.

Now then to look at the player list:

1. path12 -- Assumptions 2 and 4 apply, possible candidate.
2. hoopsguy -- I AM ALPHA!!!1!1!!
3. saldana -- Assumptions 2 and 4 apply, possible candidate.
4. PurdueBrad -- Newer player, active, been suspected early lately, prob pass.
5. ArlingtonColt -- Newer player, not as active, possible but unlikely.
6. st.cronin -- Assumptions 2 and 4 apply, possible candidate. Recent wolf.
7. RendeR -- Playing well, involved in thread, not so exp that 2/4 apply. Very possible.
8. jeheinz72 -- First game, seems like would be involved. Very possible.
9. oliegirl -- Newer player, fairly active, very possible.
10. DaddyTorgo -- Experienced, active, unpredictable. Very possible.
11. Antmeister -- Newer player, not as active, possible but unlikely.
12. Chief Rum -- Assumptions 2 and 4 apply, possible candidate. Recent wolf.
13. EagleFan -- Jumping in feet first, active and doing well. I'd pick him.
14. RealDeal -- Hasn't been around for awhile, but skilled player. Perfect pick also.
15. ntndeacon -- Experienced, keeps thoughts close to vest. Very possible.
16. Barkeep49 -- Always suspect, plus 2 and 4 apply. Either a definite because people won't expect it or definitely not.
17. Passacaglia -- Experienced, rather have on my side than not. Very possible.

So in looking at it this way, my top five options as hoops are: RealDeal, EagleFan, jeheinz72, Passacaglia, RendeR. Plus one of the path/sal/stc/CR/BK group.

[RealDeal]

Originally Posted by path12

So in looking at it this way, my top five options as hoops are: RealDeal, EagleFan, jeheinz72, Passacaglia, RendeR. Plus one of the path/sal/stc/CR/BK group.

So basically everyone alive except Ant, Daddy, and AC could be a wolf?