Climate Change, 2022 Edition

[GrantDawg]

That's all what I have heard as well. In the early 2000's the hydrogen cars were all "just around the corner", but they just never could make them as efficient as they hoped.

[Edward64]

Woohoo. New find, we are the Saudi Arabia for Lithium!

Lithium deposit found in US may be among world’s largest, study finds | Fox Business

The deposit exists in the McDermitt Caldera, a caldera approximately 28 miles long and 22 miles wide. It is believed that the caldera contains around 20 to 40 million metric tons of lithium – a figure that would dwarf deposits in Chile and Australia.

Belgian geologist Anouk Borst told Chemistry World that the findings "could change the dynamics of lithium globally, in terms of price, security of supply and geopolitics."

For context, Chile will be #2 in Lithium reserves at 9.2MT vs US 20-40MT.

Top 8 Lithium Reserves Countries in the World - Electric Vehicle Info

Chile has approximate holds 48% of the Lithium reserves in the world. Chile has 9,200,200 MT of lithium reserves.

Australia holds 5.7 Million metric tons of lithium reserves.

[Brian Swartz]

I have slightly different reasons, but that's definitely excellent!

[Edward64]

Darn. I was going to put some $ into Lithium Americas Corp but missed the 4pm cutoff ...

LAC Stock Price | Lithium Americas Corp. Stock Quote (U.S.: NYSE) | MarketWatch

Figure it can't be worse than my bet on Bumble.


Maybe we can build our own "The Line/NEOM" project from Atlanta to Orlando.


EDIT: Nvm, I read somewhere the estimate worth of the new deposits are like $1.5T. That's about 4x Apple's annual revenues or half Apple's market capital. Not even close to the oil in Saudi Arabia. We can't afford a domestic Line project.

[Edward64]

In addition to the Toyota Hydrogen stuff in a prior post, this Toyota EV target looks much more promising and ready for production ... by around 2027.

600 mile range would pretty much get rid of my range anxiety.

Toyota Promises EVs With 10-Minute Recharging And 600-Mile Range From 2027 | CarBuzz

Many have viewed Toyota as being behind the curve on EV adoption, but Toyota has just detailed its battery technology roadmap, promising 600-mile EVs with 10-minute recharge times from 2027 thanks to solid-state battery technology. Before this, 500-mile EVs are promised in 2026, and further down the line, Toyota believes its EVs will achieve 745 miles on a charge.

Unfortunately, but understandably, it'll be in the more expensive cars first.

The High-Performance Li-ion technology will launch around 2027-2028 and combines the bipolar technology with lithium-ion chemistry. This will represent one of the biggest leaps forward in battery technology as it aims to reduce costs by a further 10% compared to the Performance battery, mimic that tech's 20-minute recharge times, and afford 600 miles of range on a charge. This battery tech will likely feature in the Lexus LFR - the electric LFA successor.

[Edward64]

Okay, only tangential to the climate change discussion but thought the picture was kinda interesting.

The climate change part

The International Energy Agency last week said demand for all three major fossil fuels will peak this decade. Even beyond a crass “go woke, go broke,” many investors just don’t agree, and the replacement sources have their own issues. Surging costs have put key U.S. offshore wind projects in jeopardy, as a writedown from Ørsted brought into view, as nuclear projects globally also run into a myriad of cost and operational issues.

The picture is an oil tanker retrofitted to be an oil rig. Haven't seen that before. It's like something from a Resident Evil movie set.

And even if you do agree that oil is near its peak, the ESG movement is limiting both the money and places that can be drilled, notes famed investment author John Mauldin. “Economics 101 says that if you reduce a supply of something that has an increasing demand the price is going to rise,” says Mauldin, who it should be noted is affiliated with an independent oil and gas operator.

And that’s what has happened, particularly for offshore oil plays.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The International Energy Agency last week said demand for all three major fossil fuels will peak this decade.

This would be fantastic news if true. I don't believe it for a second though. I'd be thrilled to be proven wrong. One example of where it could be incorrect:

EVs account for over 35% of global car sales by 2030, and for more than 50% of sales in China, the European Union and the United States. As a result, the electric car market in 2030 is six-times its size in 2021. This reflects targets to phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 36 countries as well as plans by major manufacturers to pivot to EV production.

This is based on the APS (Announced Pledges Scenario). In other words, people say they're going to do something, so let's assume they will. Unquestionably China has invested heavily in EV; I buy that they will hit their end of this. I buy that the EU will try, and the US will move in that direction, but quite often there's a gap between stated goals for various climate policies and ... what actually happens, for a variety of reasons. Suffice to say that this gap is usually not on the side of 'oops, we actually used fossil fuels less than we said we would' but rather the other way around.

Another interesting factor cited by the IEA in demand is that rising energy prices will actually depress demand in developing countries where people just won't be able to afford it. That's certainly one way to get around the supply issue, and I do think it will happen to some degree, but all it really means is that there still isn't enough affordable energy to go around.

[flere-imsaho]

Oil companies don't even develop a fraction of the drilling leases they obtain, so it's a little rich to say that supply is being restricted in this fashion.

Oil companies are kind of like toddlers who won't eat anything you put on their plate, but feel they should be entitled to all the ice cream and junk food that may or may not exist in the house.

[Edward64]

(Could be in Science thread but also relevant to green technologies)


New material discovered. Sounds promising but hard to assess what impact it'll have.

Scientists discover ‘magical’ material that’s stronger than steel and lighter than aluminum — and its potential is dizzying

Scientists discover ‘magical’ material that’s stronger than steel and lighter than aluminum — and its potential is dizzying

Galvorn is stronger than steel, lighter than aluminum, and has the conductivity of copper, according to an article on LinkedIn. While the jury is still out on whether it’s faster than a speeding bullet, experts at Houston-based DexMat suggest their product can revolutionize the green tech landscape.

Galvorn can be an alternative to rare and expensive copper — a crucial metal in electronics, according to a report from GreenBiz. What’s more, the inventors plan to displace dirty materials, contribute to cleaner air, and advance green tech as their “magical” material is rolled out.

Galvorn is the result of a more than $20 million investment from two U.S. Air Force research agencies, the Department of Energy, and NASA, among other tech heavy hitters, GreenBiz reports.

The cool thing is the name Galvorn was inspired LOTR

Galvorn is made as tape, yarn, thread, or mesh, among other forms. Its makers said that J.R.R. Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings” was an inspiration in the process, though, at first glance, you wouldn’t think it can stand up to Orc blades.

“skilled elven smith by the name of Eöl creates a new type of metal called galvorn that is described as being thin and flexible, yet also strong enough to serve as armor,” DexMat shared on the company’s blog, describing how the creators came up with the name.

I'm not a big lore guy but wondered if Galvorn is the same as the more famous Mithril. They are different.

[Edward64]

I enjoy Joe Scott. Most recent YT was on rising waters, specifically in the Mediterranean, and possible solution by building a "dam" at Gibraltar area to control the rising waters. He concedes it probably won't be done but still an interesting concept.




He also pointed out a neat connection to Star Trek. I found below.

In Gene Roddenberry’s 1979 book version of Star Trek: The Motion Picture, Admiral (former Captain) Kirk stands on a huge dam near Gibraltar; the dam blocks the Atlantic Ocean from the Mediterranean, and uses it to generate electric p*ower.

[flere-imsaho]

If you like that, you'll like Atlantropa: Atlantropa - Wikipedia

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

And the search for & access to rare earth metals continues ...

The story is from DM. I don't know how accurate the nos. are but there we are finding quite a bit in Wyoming. There are many different types of rare earth metals and no idea if they are really the "right" ones we need etc.

I searched on it and didn't find much beyond local press, trade journals etc. but don't think it's hit MSM awareness yet.

'Beyond our wildest dreams': 2.34 BILLION metric tons of rare earth minerals discovered in Wyoming that could make US 'world leader' | Daily Mail Online

'Beyond our wildest dreams': 2.34 BILLION metric tons of rare earth minerals discovered in Wyoming that could make US 'world leader'

American Rare Earths Inc announced that the reserves near Wheatland dramatically surpass the Asian nation’s 44 million metric tons, saying it 'exceeded our wildest dreams’ after drilling only about 25 percent of the property.

For context, China is currently #1 and her rare earth deposits are in the millions.

So my (premature) conclusion is:

More to come; we may not be as dependent on other countries for materials to build our EV batteries, iphones etc.; rare earth metals may not be as rare once capitalism starts looking harder.

[Brian Swartz]

Sounds like good news, and your general conclusion is probably true. I also don't think it matters a great deal; it's extremely unlikely that any region or country has a sufficient supply of everything vital, esp. as the list of vital resources and the required quantities continues to increase, which means cooperating with 'hostile' nations is still going to be necessary no matter who you are.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Sounds like good news, and your general conclusion is probably true. I also don't think it matters a great deal; it's extremely unlikely that any region or country has a sufficient supply of everything vital, esp. as the list of vital resources and the required quantities continues to increase, which means cooperating with 'hostile' nations is still going to be necessary no matter who you are.

There'll probably be additional large deposits found around the world the next 10-30 years time. It'll be interesting to see where they are. It'll be great if US/Wyoming is the Saudi Arabia of rare earth stuff.

[NobodyHere]

Anyone are on private planes is evening are an enemy of the planet. Pass it on.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

There'll probably be additional large deposits found around the world the next 10-30 years time.

I agree, but that only changes the big picture at the margins. The core issue is still there.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I agree, but that only changes the big picture at the margins. The core issue is still there.

Hah. I'm pretty sure we differ on core issue.

My core issue is the immediate one, the dependency on China for the rare earth stuff. So hopefully, we ramp up and that is no longer a pressing, national security issue in the next 3-5 years.

Take heart that the US trend line is downward.

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EDIT: ... and also

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/09/the-...ic%20by%202045.

The Earth’s protective ozone layer is on track to recover within four decades in a gradual process that’s expected to close a major ozone hole over Antarctica, a United Nations-backed panel of experts announced on Monday.

The findings of the scientific assessment follow the landmark Montreal Protocol in 1987, which banned the production and consumption of chemicals that eat away at the planet’s ozone layer.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

My core issue is the immediate one, the dependency on China for the rare earth stuff. So hopefully, we ramp up and that is no longer a pressing, national security issue in the next 3-5 years.

I'm very confused by this. You made reference to 10-30 years in your earlier post. If you're concern is the next few years, then that timeframe doesn't make any sense. I would also suggest that expecting a find like this to be exploited in the next few years is IMO wishful thinking. These things are strategic, long-term assets not ones that make a huge difference in production in the short term - it takes more time than that to sensibly develop them.

I also find it strange that you responded to and bolded my statement earlier of what I think the core issue is, then seemed to shift goalposts here. I'm not being nitpicky, I just don't understand you responding to that in that way at all if you don't care about the long-term picture.

In terms of the larger climate picture, yes there are some positive signs but the overall picture is still horribly negative. Global CO2 emissions are growing slower than they did in the past, but still growing - they dropped during COVID but have now exceeded pre-pandemic levels again. I don't see any indication that our oil supply future has improved recently, some studies are indicating that the climate may be quite a bit more sensitive to CO2 additions than previously hoped, it's looking less and less likely that any reasonable course of action will be able to prevent continued melting of the ice sheet in the Antarctic, and so on. The ozone situation is definitely a win, and there are others, but we're still definitely heading a high rate of speed towards a much less habitable & hospitable Earth for future generations.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Anyone are on private planes is evening are an enemy of the planet. Pass it on.

Nah, the planet's going to be just fine regardless of any of that. The people living on the planet on the other hand ...

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I'm very confused by this. You made reference to 10-30 years in your earlier post. If you're concern is the next few years, then that timeframe doesn't make any sense. I would also suggest that expecting a find like this to be exploited in the next few years is IMO wishful thinking. These things are strategic, long-term assets not ones that make a huge difference in production in the short term - it takes more time than that to sensibly develop them.

The 10-30 years was about world finding additional deposits and therefore, rare earth metals, not being as rare as once thought. So, the big, longer term picture.

The immediate timeframe of 3-5 years is because lots of talk about China taking military action against Taiwan as early as 2027. If that happens, China's current dominance on rare earth metals will put the US at a major disadvantage as not only do those things go into our EV and smartphones, but also military stuff.

Therefore, it is in our national security interests to exploit, develop etc. the Wyoming stuff as quickly as possible. Similarly, I support increase chip manufacturing in the US, decreasing our reliance on Taiwan.

https://media.defense.gov/2023/Apr/2...TURE%20IWD.PDF

... if President Xi continues to pursue the annexation of Taiwan, the PLA will be prepared by 2027, and he will likely take steps to realize these ambitions by 2030 as China’s population ages, while pursuing annexation to solidify his historic legacy in his lifetime.

I also find it strange that you responded to and bolded my statement earlier of what I think the core issue is, then seemed to shift goalposts here. I'm not being nitpicky, I just don't understand you responding to that in that way at all if you don't care about the long-term picture.

See above about 10-30 vs 3-5 years.

Basically, I do care about the long term climate change picture but (assume) with less urgency than you. However, because I believe China is the #1 threat to the US we should do our utmost to reduce our reliance on China (and Taiwan). As I am tired of US foreign policy influenced by Middle-east oil, I support EV growth & adoption.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Building has started!

Still haven't processed if good/pros outweighs the bad/cons, but as a sci-fi fan, I am excited to see how this works out.

Looks like Neom/The Line is encountering some setbacks. Still hope it goes into "production", I'd like to visit it one day.

Saudis Scale Back Ambition for $1.5 Trillion Desert Project Neom

Saudi Arabia has scaled back its medium-term ambitions for the desert development of Neom
:
By 2030, the government at one point hoped to have 1.5 million residents living in The Line, a sprawling, futuristic city it plans to contain within a pair of mirror-clad skyscrapers. Now, officials expect the development will house fewer than 300,000 residents by that time
:
Officials have long said The Line would be built in stages and they expect it to ultimately cover a 170-kilometer stretch of desert along the coast. With the latest pullback, though, officials expect to have just 2.4 kilometers of the project completed by 2030

[Edward64]

Looks like Atlanta is safe. Say goodbye to New Orleans, Miami & Jacksonville by 2100.

https://www.newsweek.com/map-us-stat...s-2100-1888513

A map of the contiguous U.S. shows how coastal states would be affected by 6 feet of sea level rise, an environmental change that could occur by the end of the next century due to ice sheet loss accelerated by climate change.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates there will be between 43 and 84 centimeters (1.4 and 2.8 feet) of sea level rise by the year 2100, but said that an increase of 2 meters (6.6 feet) "cannot be ruled out."

[Brian Swartz]

Much of the rest of the world would not be so fortunate.