WW LXIV- The Wedding- GAME OVER GUESTS WIN

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Why Arlie? He voted RendeR. To me that isn't a death knell (since well, I voted RendeR too). Since I made the mistake I tend to use the thinking "well if I did, it's hard for me to then pin it on someone else for the same vote".

For some reason I thought he voted for DT. My mistake. In looking back on the votes, he voted for RendeR. I'm hoping that he'll come on today and explain his vote.

[Barkeep49]

I find jh's vote the most suspicous frankly. When he voted Render was the only person with two votes. By adding a 3rd vote at that time I feel like he wasn't forcing the issue so much as putting the nail in the coffin. So let's kick things off that way.

Vote jeheinz

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I find jh's vote the most suspicous frankly. When he voted Render was the only person with two votes. By adding a 3rd vote at that time I feel like he wasn't forcing the issue so much as putting the nail in the coffin. So let's kick things off that way.

Vote jeheinz

Nah.

I ask you, what's better from my standpoint (as someone who at the time was about to leave and not return until post deadline)? Here were my options, as I see/saw them:

1. I leave my vote as is (a 1-off vote for path12)
2. Move it to someone with 1 vote on them (making it 2-2-1's)
3. Move it to RendeR and see if there was an effort to save (or no further effort to lynch)

In my mind, the smart move for me was the last one. It's the one that's in the best interests of the weddingIf was going to still be around, I wouldn't have done it (at least not at that juncture). #1 doesn't get us any more info (and would likely still get RendeR lynched) and #2 just creates more confusion.

[Passacaglia]

JE, my thinking was the same as BK's about this -- in fact, I pretty much said so right after you voted. I'm just wondering -- what do you think we learned from this, then?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

JE, my thinking was the same as BK's about this -- in fact, I pretty much said so right after you voted. I'm just wondering -- what do you think we learned from this, then?

Well, I never said it worked all that well, but it was my "plan"

Basically I figured by making RendeR the lead vote-getter we'd see (or I was hoping we'd see) one of two things

- Lots of votes for one other candidate in an effort to "save" RendeR
- Lots of pile-on votes to seal the deal (pointing to pile'r on'ers as wolves)

What we saw was

- Pass voted Schmidty (2nd vote for him)
- Olie voted NTN (1st vote, TENTH person to get a vote on Day one)
- Mau switching to DT (ELEVENTH person to get 1 vote)
- RA voted DT 1 minute later (2 votes for DT now)
- RendeR switching to DT (3 votes, but this we know was self-pres.)

The last three all happened within a half an hour as a real push which made it 4-4-2 (DT, RendeR, Schmidty) with under an hour to go.

Hence my vote of Mau and my question toward RA.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Wasn't there a game when DT said he was a wolf, and everyone was like 'yeah right' but then it turned out he was? I don't think he would try that tactic twice.

Why not? If something works keep it in the arsenal.

[path12]

FWIW, here's the sequence of votes/unvotes yesterday. Forgive the lack of style.

41 -- CR votes Schmidty (Sch 1)
47 -- JEH votes path (Sch 1, path 1)
53 -- BK votes CR (Sch, path & CR 1)
54 -- ntn votes Olie (Sch, path, CR & Olie 1)
58 -- Neon votes Render (sch, path, cr, olie & ren 1)
63 -- DT votes BK (sch, path, cr, olie, ren & bk 1)
65 -- path votes Arles (sch, path, cr, olie, ren, bk & arles 1)
67 -- mau votes Farrah (sch, path, cr, olie, ren, bk, arles, farrah 1)
70 -- Render votes BK (BK 2; sch, path, cr, olie, ren, arles, farrah 1)
72 -- DT UNVOTES BK, votes Pass (sch, path, cr, olie, ren, bk, arles, farrah, pass 1)
76 -- Clap vites mau! (sch, path, cr, olie, ren, bk, arles, farrah, pass, mau 1)
79 -- BK UNVOTES CR, votes Render (Ren 2; sch, path, olie, bk, arles, farrah, pass, mau 1)
81 -- JEH UNVOTES path, votes Render (Ren 3, sch, olie, bk, arles, farrah, pass, mau 1)
82 -- Pass votes Schmidty (Ren 3; Sch 2; olie, bk, arles, farrah, pass, mau 1)
88 -- Olie votes ntn (Ren 3; Sch 2; olie, bk, arles, farrah, pass, mau, ntn 1)
90 -- mau UNVOTES Farrah, votes DT (Ren 3; Sch 2, olie, bk, arles, pass, mau, ntn, dt 1)
91 -- Raiders votes DT (Ren 3; Sch, DT 2; olie, bk, arles, pass, mau, ntn 1)
1 hour until deadline
94 -- Farrah votes DT (Ren, DT 3; Sch 2; olie, bk, arles, pass, mau, ntn 1)
97 -- Arles votes Render (Ren 4; DT 3; Sch 2; olie, bk, arles, pass, mau, ntn 1)
98 -- Render UNVOTES BK, votes DT (Ren, DT 4; Sch 2, olie, arles, pass, mau, ntn 1)
108 -- DT UNVOTES Pass, votes Render (Ren 5; DT 4; Sch 2, olie, arles, mau, ntn 1)
113 -- DT UNVOTES Render, votes mau (Ren, DT 4; Sch, mau 2; olie, arles, ntn 1)
121 -- DT UNVOTES mau, votes Render (Ren 5; DT 4; Sch 2; olie, arles, mau, ntn 1)
5 min until deadline
132 -- Render UNVOTES DT, votes Raiders (Ren 5; DT 3; Sch 2; olie, arles, mau, ntn, ra 1)
135 -- Farrah UNVOTES DT, votes Schmidty (Ren 5; Sch 3; DT 2; olie, arles, mau, ntn, ra 1)

I'm not sure if there's anything in there or not, but I'm gonna try to find something anyway.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

Why not? If something works keep it in the arsenal.

See 195 for my response. Speaking personally I'm just sick of being wrong about it and killing off a villager. YMMV.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

76 -- Clap vites mau!

Clap sure is emphatic in his viting.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well, I never said it worked all that well, but it was my "plan"

Basically I figured by making RendeR the lead vote-getter we'd see (or I was hoping we'd see) one of two things

- Lots of votes for one other candidate in an effort to "save" RendeR
- Lots of pile-on votes to seal the deal (pointing to pile'r on'ers as wolves)

What we saw was

- Pass voted Schmidty (2nd vote for him)
- Olie voted NTN (1st vote, TENTH person to get a vote on Day one)
- Mau switching to DT (ELEVENTH person to get 1 vote)
- RA voted DT 1 minute later (2 votes for DT now)
- RendeR switching to DT (3 votes, but this we know was self-pres.)

The last three all happened within a half an hour as a real push which made it 4-4-2 (DT, RendeR, Schmidty) with under an hour to go.

Hence my vote of Mau and my question toward RA.

But your whole argument seems to rest on the idea that RendeR is a wolf. Otherwise, attempts to save him aren't wolfish. Right? And you're looking at mau and RA, because they made attempts to save a known villager? Today's been a hectic day at work, so I'm not thinking that clearly, but it sounds like you're living in opposite land. What am I missing?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Clap sure is emphatic in his viting.

Indied.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

But your whole argument seems to rest on the idea that RendeR is a wolf. Otherwise, attempts to save him aren't wolfish. Right? And you're looking at mau and RA, because they made attempts to save a known villager? Today's been a hectic day at work, so I'm not thinking that clearly, but it sounds like you're living in opposite land. What am I missing?

Yeah, that's the premise, to *find out* if RendeR is a wolf. I mean it's Day One, we have no info, we gotta take our shot somewhere, right?

I see what you are saying on Mau and RA, but like I said, I know I'm innocent so I'm not inclined to follow the "These people voted for RendeR, let's string them up next" line of thinking.

Mau pinged my radar with his "triggering truthiness" comment (or whatever it was). So I checked him out. He had his vote on Farrah and then with no comment flips to DT and within a half hour DT has 4 votes on him. That seems odd to me. It's all I can see so far to work with here today. The voters on RendeR are:

BK
DT
Me
Arles
Neon

I dunno about BK, or at least I don't know enough to throw a vote his way today.

I'm figuring we were villager v villager last night (hence the spread), hence I'm not looking at DT.

I'm of course not voting for myself.

I've never played with Arles before, and he has no substantive contribution thus far, so I'm not wasting a vote there.

Neon is dead.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

See 195 for my response. Speaking personally I'm just sick of being wrong about it and killing off a villager. YMMV.

I've done the same thing. Actually, if I was a seer he'd have been my view last night, I'm assuming he'll be checked at some point.

[Barkeep49]

See I don't think his premise is vested on the idea that Render is a wolf. Don't forget that wolves know who the humans are. So at times a wolf will "save" a villager, condemning another villager, saying "X doesn't feel like a wolf and since Y is the only other choice I'm voting Y" late in the day. This didn't play out this way here but I do think it's worth noting.

Still think it was a bad plan though which is why my vote remains here it is.

[mauchow]

I'll be able to post more later, but I'm at work. I apologize big time to not be able to contribute right now.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by path12

FWIW, here's the sequence of votes/unvotes yesterday. Forgive the lack of style.
94 -- Farrah votes DT (Ren, DT 3; Sch 2; olie, bk, arles, pass, mau, ntn 1)
97 -- Arles votes Render (Ren 4; DT 3; Sch 2; olie, bk, arles, pass, mau, ntn 1)

Timing and being on a PDA pretty much explains my vote. When I logged on, I had one vote and DT and Ren had 3. It made sense to vote for one of the 3-vote guys to ensure I didn't get voted off. So, it was a toss-up between DT and RendeR. Given I saw Farrah voted for DT, I didn't want to vote for him as well and make everyone think we were working together, so I chose RendeR.

[path12]

What I find most curious is Renders unvote of DT late to make it a two vote margin. All he needed was one late switch to at least tie it up (do we know the tiebreaker procedure?) I would be much more suspicious of Farrah's late move off DT otherwise.

I don't see much in the initial DT run -- I can't imagine wolves on day 1 going three in a row to off someone.

Arles was the vote that doomed Render, and I'd like to know why he decided to vote that way.

All in all though, there were a lot of places for wolves to hide in yesterday's voting. I'd imagine they spread their votes out with just one on Render.

[path12]

And there's my answer from Arlie. Ain't crossposting fun?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, that's the premise, to *find out* if RendeR is a wolf. I mean it's Day One, we have no info, we gotta take our shot somewhere, right?

I see what you are saying on Mau and RA, but like I said, I know I'm innocent so I'm not inclined to follow the "These people voted for RendeR, let's string them up next" line of thinking.

Mau pinged my radar with his "triggering truthiness" comment (or whatever it was). So I checked him out. He had his vote on Farrah and then with no comment flips to DT and within a half hour DT has 4 votes on him. That seems odd to me. It's all I can see so far to work with here today. The voters on RendeR are:

BK
DT
Me
Arles
Neon

I dunno about BK, or at least I don't know enough to throw a vote his way today.

I'm figuring we were villager v villager last night (hence the spread), hence I'm not looking at DT.

I'm of course not voting for myself.

I've never played with Arles before, and he has no substantive contribution thus far, so I'm not wasting a vote there.

Neon is dead.

I think you're going about this the wrong way. I agree that if RendeR was a villager (which he was), then we can assume that wolves would pile on. I'd think we can look at those who avoided piling on as pretty well trusted -- that is, people who placed votes after you, but not on RendeR. Looking at people who did vote RendeR on your list, I give DT a pass for self-defense, BK a pass for that as well (plus it definitely wasn't a pile-on, since it was only the 2nd vote on him). That leaves you and Arlie. Arlie's vote really can't be called a pile-on: it was 3-3 when he voted to make it 4-3. If any vote was a pile-on, it was yours, since you made it go from 2-11111111 to 3-111111111. I tried to bring us to two candidates immediately following, but you've got to see why that looks like a pile-on. I understand the plan, but you have to understand how it looks now to the rest of us!

[jeheinz72]

Oh I definitely understand how it looks, I know it was somewhat risky when we did it. I was just hoping we'd learn more than we eventually did. But yeah, I'm not shocked BK gave me a vote, I pretty much expected a little heat today when I saw RendeR was innocent.

I mainly want to explain my line of thinking behind why I did what I did. The fact remains I know I'm innocent, it's just my job to convince the rest of you that I am too.

[Barkeep49]

In case people didn't understand why I've voted for JH, Pass does a nice job of explaining it in his post.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Oh I definitely understand how it looks, I know it was somewhat risky when we did it. I was just hoping we'd learn more than we eventually did. But yeah, I'm not shocked BK gave me a vote, I pretty much expected a little heat today when I saw RendeR was innocent.

I mainly want to explain my line of thinking behind why I did what I did. The fact remains I know I'm innocent, it's just my job to convince the rest of you that I am too.

Right. Is that what the attack on mauboy was about, then?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

In case people didn't understand why I've voted for JH, Pass does a nice job of explaining it in his post.

Thanks! Now I just need to figure out if it's enough to convince me.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I'll be able to post more later, but I'm at work. I apologize big time to not be able to contribute right now.

Don't worry about it. Contribute when you can.

Originally Posted by Arles

Timing and being on a PDA pretty much explains my vote. When I logged on, I had one vote and DT and Ren had 3. It made sense to vote for one of the 3-vote guys to ensure I didn't get voted off. So, it was a toss-up between DT and RendeR. Given I saw Farrah voted for DT, I didn't want to vote for him as well and make everyone think we were working together, so I chose RendeR.

This is a very reasonable explanation to me and kind of what I guess given the circumstances.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'd think we can look at those who avoided piling on as pretty well trusted -- that is, people who placed votes after you, but not on RendeR.

Touching on this point, the people you would look at then are those that voted before me, me and Arles (though you said you aren't looking there). Taking out BK, Neon, RendeR

41 -- CR votes Schmidty (Sch 1)
54 -- ntn votes Olie (Sch, path, CR & Olie 1)
65 -- path votes Arles (sch, path, cr, olie, ren, bk & arles 1)
76 -- Clap vites mau! (sch, path, cr, olie, ren, bk, arles, farrah, pass, mau 1)

...in then addition to me.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Right. Is that what the attack on mauboy was about, then?

Attack is a bit strong, but yeah, Mau is the next person I'd be looking at.

I definitely wouldn't say I'm "sold" on him at all. But the fact is we need to get some votes going, I'm more than willing to kickoff a line a thinking to see where it leads (I leave at 6 mind you, so I can't wait around until closer to the deadline, I need my info now to make an educated decision as best I can). Maybe it leads nowhere (as is looking like the case), maybe his comment popped up on a couple other people's radars, either way, we need to flesh this out.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Touching on this point, the people you would look at then are those that voted before me, me and Arles (though you said you aren't looking there). Taking out BK, Neon, RendeR

41 -- CR votes Schmidty (Sch 1)
54 -- ntn votes Olie (Sch, path, CR & Olie 1)
65 -- path votes Arles (sch, path, cr, olie, ren, bk & arles 1)
76 -- Clap vites mau! (sch, path, cr, olie, ren, bk, arles, farrah, pass, mau 1)

...in then addition to me.

Thanks for that research. That again brings me to -- why did you attack the vitten one (mauboy)?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Attack is a bit strong, but yeah, Mau is the next person I'd be looking at.

I definitely wouldn't say I'm "sold" on him at all. But the fact is we need to get some votes going, I'm more than willing to kickoff a line a thinking to see where it leads (I leave at 6 mind you, so I can't wait around until closer to the deadline, I need my info now to make an educated decision as best I can). Maybe it leads nowhere (as is looking like the case), maybe his comment popped up on a couple other people's radars, either way, we need to flesh this out.

Then why not pick your favorite of CR, ntn, path, or clap? Sorry about the use of the word attack again -- but whatever, why vote for mau over these guys?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Thanks for that research. That again brings me to -- why did you attack the vitten one (mauboy)?

Hey, this is your theory, not mine. My reasoning for voting Mau still stands (the strange comment ReT, the strange switch from Farrah to DT).

I was just showing you your list.

Do you see my point on Mau at all, or do you think those two things are nothing?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Then why not pick your favorite of CR, ntn, path, or clap? Sorry about the use of the word attack again -- but whatever, why vote for mau over these guys?

I said those are the people "you" would look at then, not me. I don't see anything warranting a vote for those 4 yet. Could a wolf linger in there, sure, anything is possible at this point, but I'd have no idea on where to begin on determining that now.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Hey, this is your theory, not mine. My reasoning for voting Mau still stands (the strange comment ReT, the strange switch from Farrah to DT).

I was just showing you your list.

Do you see my point on Mau at all, or do you think those two things are nothing?

Looking back, I think I see what you mean. Since Farrah put in a vote for DT later on, you mean? Are you suspecting that mau's vote on Farrah was to bury a vote on a wolf, but then he felt like he needed to move his vote...in order to save RendeR? Why would he do that?

I'm not sure what you mean about his strange comment about DT, either. Is it the one where he accuses DT, because DT claimed to be a wolf?

[claphamsa]

vite mau again.....

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Yeah I think we're at about the point where we need to consolidate. I think I'm pretty willing to consolidate onto Render after his vote for me.

Ya know, I was reading back to fetch the Mau quote Pass asked for and this caught my eye.

BK, you were ok with consolidating your vote but then I do it to and it's not ok?

I"m not aiming to move my vote to you, yet, but I'd like to hear what you have to say about this.

[jeheinz72]

Pass - these are the quotes:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I'm working an odd shift today but I'll be home before the deadline comes up. I'll peak in and out throughout the day probably though.

Anyhow, DT still is on my radar for all of his defensive moves. That's where I'm going to start and we'll see what happens throughout the day.

Vote DaddyTorgo

I wish I could be a seer for once. lol

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Some came before and some came after the fact. His opening statement was a bit silly too where he states he's a werewolf. Obviously a joke but sometimes obvious jokes could trigger some truth.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Pass - these are the quotes:

Thanks for refreshing my memory. I even responded to that second quote, and was waiting for an answer.

[oliegirl]

I have no idea where I'm voting yet...been following along most of the day (while I try to keep my 'roided out son from climbing the walls). I'll be gone for a little while but back long before deadline to catch up and figure out where I'll be voting...

[jeheinz72]

Here's what I have on votes

Mau: 2 (jeheinz72, claphamsa)
DT: 1 (Mauboy)
jeheinz72: 1 (BK)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Ya know, I was reading back to fetch the Mau quote Pass asked for and this caught my eye.

BK, you were ok with consolidating your vote but then I do it to and it's not ok?

I"m not aiming to move my vote to you, yet, but I'd like to hear what you have to say about this.

I am. You created a runaway situation. A second vote on someone else would have been a consolidation.

[Lathum]

Is there anyone who can keep track of the votes. I have class tonight and if the vote count is done for me it would speed things up considerably.

[DaddyTorgo]

first time i've had a chance to check in all day...don't even know if i'm on the block or not...lemme try to catch up

[DaddyTorgo]

Pass - I have no intention of voting for you again today

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Indeed. And I've pushed hard a couple of games since then against DT when he's made other seemingly stupid remarks. All the other times he's been a villager. So I have given up going after him for it.

I don't make stupid remarks BK. I'm a cunning, calculating player, whether for good or for evil. Plots within plots you see .

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I don't make stupid remarks BK. I'm a cunning, calculating player, whether for good or for evil. Plots within plots you see .

I did say SEEMINGLY stupid.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by path12

I've done the same thing. Actually, if I was a seer he'd have been my view last night, I'm assuming he'll be checked at some point.

damm...i'm honored path. if i was scanned, the seer can vouch for me later if/when the time comes for reveal. NOT NOW

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, that's the premise, to *find out* if RendeR is a wolf. I mean it's Day One, we have no info, we gotta take our shot somewhere, right?

I see what you are saying on Mau and RA, but like I said, I know I'm innocent so I'm not inclined to follow the "These people voted for RendeR, let's string them up next" line of thinking.

Mau pinged my radar with his "triggering truthiness" comment (or whatever it was). So I checked him out. He had his vote on Farrah and then with no comment flips to DT and within a half hour DT has 4 votes on him. That seems odd to me. It's all I can see so far to work with here today. The voters on RendeR are:

BK
DT
Me
Arles
Neon

I dunno about BK, or at least I don't know enough to throw a vote his way today.

I'm figuring we were villager v villager last night (hence the spread), hence I'm not looking at DT.

I'm of course not voting for myself.

I've never played with Arles before, and he has no substantive contribution thus far, so I'm not wasting a vote there.

Neon is dead.

i see what jh was trying to do, and he also nicely summarized what it was about mau that had me going "WHA?!!?"

[DaddyTorgo]

more later. heading out of the office in 9 minutes

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I am. You created a runaway situation. A second vote on someone else would have been a consolidation.

I get your point.

I'd say that's a mighty fine line in the sand for you to essentially say "I'm over here on the good side, and you're over there on the bad side" but that's neither here nor there at this point.

[Raiders Army]

Just thinking about the votes on RendeR: What if the wolves saw that RendeR was the leading vote getter after jeheinz voted for him? Wouldn't it make sense for them to spread out their votes on other people at that point? I think from a gameplay perspective, I'd look at the people who voted for other people after jeheinz voted. Those people would be:

Pass
oliegirl
mau
Raiders Army
Farrah
Arlie

Of course RendeR and DT switched votes but I think that RendeR is cleared and Daddy Torgo had already voted.

[jeheinz72]

I think what you say makes some sense RA. Who do you like off that list? Obviously I'm still on mau.

I'm splitting in 35 minutes for the day, anyone got any thoughts? Kinda dead here today.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Just thinking about the votes on RendeR: What if the wolves saw that RendeR was the leading vote getter after jeheinz voted for him? Wouldn't it make sense for them to spread out their votes on other people at that point? I think from a gameplay perspective, I'd look at the people who voted for other people after jeheinz voted. Those people would be:

Pass
oliegirl
mau
Raiders Army
Farrah
Arlie

Of course RendeR and DT switched votes but I think that RendeR is cleared and Daddy Torgo had already voted.

To respond to this on my own behalf, I voted to avoid this scenario. I saw a possible runaway forming, and voted to get us two candidates to look at. I was sitting there trying to think of who to give a 2nd vote to already, when the 3rd vote on RendeR happened. So I stopped pondering, and just went with something as fast as I could. I was thinking of both CR and Schmidty, and I explained why I went with Schmidty (he was the only one of the two who already had a vote on him, so he would have a better shot of beating RendeR than CR would, plus people were against the idea of me voting for CR when he was out).

[Raiders Army]

Obviously I don't think I'm voting for me.

I'm just throwing out that idea. Based on that list, I'd lean towards Pass, olie, or mau. Also, based on the conversations above I see a convergence on mau. Shurg. I could lean that way.