2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Edward64]

I missed it but apparently Biden said "inshallah". I'm sure there is a calculus somewhere. Don't think Biden needed to worry about the muslim vote but does this hurt him some with the jewish vote? It seemed unnecessary.

Biden uses 'inshallah' in response to Trump during debate, lighting up Twitter - CNNPolitics

During one of the more charged moments of the chaotic US presidential debate, former Vice President Joe Biden dropped a phrase from everyday Muslim and Arab vocabulary and lit up the internet.

Pressing President Donald Trump on when the American public would get to see his long-anticipated tax returns, Biden questioned: "When? Inshallah?"
In certain vernacular, "inshallah" serves as a non-committal response to a question.

Taken literally, the term "inshallah," consists of three Arabic words (In sha' Allah) which translate into "if God wills it." Spiritually it represents a submission to God's will. It can perhaps be seen as the Muslim counterpart to the Yiddish adage, "Man plans, and God laughs."

Children in the Muslim world will often say that when a parent responds to a question with "inshallah," it signals an unfulfilled promise, while unreliable timekeeping is lightheartedly chalked up to "inshallah timing."

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

That is precisely the goal of an authoritarian. You already have me, this guy is a joke, and nothing will ever be better than you have it now. It's a very abusive mindset. It's why women stay with men who hurt them.

Exactly. And you can see a lot of it "worked" as there's a lot of "both-sides"-ism to it. Though I'm not sure how that plays out in votes. Did Trump drag Biden into the mud with him to keep people from voting or did it just remind people they don't want 4 more years of Trump doing this to everything?

SI

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Exactly. And you can see a lot of it "worked" as there's a lot of "both-sides"-ism to it. Though I'm not sure how that plays out in votes. Did Trump drag Biden into the mud with him to keep people from voting or did it just remind people they don't want 4 more years of Trump doing this to everything?

SI

While Parscale was running the campaign he said his plan to deal with Trump's unpopularity was to make whoever runs against him just as unpopular. I'm wondering if that was the strategy last night. If it was, it probably turned some people off to Biden but hurt Trump even more.

If there was a checkbox for the GOP campaign strategy last night I'm not sure they checked any boxes othet than "keep the base engaged".

[Atocep]

Rasmussen just released a poll (23-29 Sept) that shows Biden up 8 points.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Edward64

No need to. Race really isn't a big issue to Republican voters.

Important issues in the 2020 election | Pew Research Center

Trump's margin of victory was so slim that I think something that affects a quarter of his base is not insignificant.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Trump's margin of victory was so slim that I think something that affects a quarter of his base is not insignificant.

Does it matter do they say it matters?

SI

[larrymcg421]

There's just so much pessimism from people on the left because of what happened in 2016. All these theories about Trump's strategy and how it was successful last night. There's just no evidence that he was successful. In fact, every bit of evidence we have is that last night was a disaster for Trump (Prediction markets, snapshot polls, etc.)

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Edward64

No need to. Race really isn't a big issue to Republican voters.

Important issues in the 2020 election | Pew Research Center

People aren't always willing to admit or realize that race is a big factor for them. I bet if you polled the Proud Boys, they wouldn't say race was a big factor.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Edward64

No need to. Race really isn't a big issue to Republican voters.

Lets look a bit closer at why. Trumps strongest support is in rural America, in other words towns that are not steeped in diversity. So if I go to Soddy Daisy, Tennessee, a republican city whose population is less than 1% black, do you really think any of those residents see race as a problem?

You can repeat this same scenario, over and over throughout rural America in towns that are heavily conservative and it will be the same. Race isn't a big issue because most of these people don't deal in the realities of it and get there view of it from Fox or OAN.

They don't see a problem because they choose to remain unintentionally or willfully ignorant.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Lets look a bit closer at why. Trumps strongest support is in rural America, in other words towns that are not steeped in diversity. So if I go to Soddy Daisy, Tennessee, a republican city whose population is less than 1% black, do you really think any of those residents see race as a problem?

You can repeat this same scenario, over and over throughout rural America in towns that are heavily conservative and it will be the same. Race isn't a big issue because most of these people don't deal in the realities of it and get there view of it from Fox or OAN.

They don't see a problem because they choose to remain unintentionally or willfully ignorant.

This 1000X

[Edward64]

Kinda funny article on google searches during the debate.

The below makes senses.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/go...?mod=home-page

During the first hour of the roughly 90-minute debate, Google’s top trending searches were:

1. K-shaped recovery
2. Roe v. Wade
3. How many people have pre existing conditions?
4. Who is winning the debate?
5. Affordable Care Act

But I don't get this. I can see Canada, some countries in Europe, maybe Mexico but why New Zealand?

What’s more, U.S. Google searches for “how to move to New Zealand” also skyrocketed during the debate, according to Google Trends and reported by Newshub, a New Zealand media company. People in the state of Oregon (home to Portland, which has been a hotbed of protests against injustice) googled “how to move to New Zealand” the most, while residents in Washington, Nevada and Utah were also especially interested, according to the data.

[albionmoonlight]

New Zealand has been in the news for taking steps to reduce coronavirus infections. So I imagine that people were just trying to escape all of the current crises with one move :-)

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Edward64

But I don't get this. I can see Canada, some countries in Europe, maybe Mexico but why New Zealand?

Here's what I found: 10 Easiest Countries for Americans to Move to | WiFi Tribe With New Zealand being the first on their list. Looks like the barrier for entry for people 18-30 is pretty low, you just need $3,000 saved up and apply for a holiday visa.

[HomerSimpson98]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Lets look a bit closer at why. Trumps strongest support is in rural America, in other words towns that are not steeped in diversity. So if I go to Soddy Daisy, Tennessee, a republican city whose population is less than 1% black, do you really think any of those residents see race as a problem?

The more important question to the locals will be whether or not Jeremy Pruitt will be able to keep the Soddy Daisy QB away from Dan Mullen and Gainesville.

[Atocep]

I read today that Biden and supporting PACs have commited $340 million in ads across 18 states in October while Trump and his PACs have only been able to commit $170 million over 13 states.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I read today that Biden and supporting PACs have commited $340 million in ads across 18 states in October while Trump and his PACs have only been able to commit $170 million over 13 states.

I'm guessing it's mostly because of this: The 2020 Trump Campaign Is Reportedly a Financial Mess

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by HomerSimpson98

The more important question to the locals will be whether or not Jeremy Pruitt will be able to keep the Soddy Daisy QB away from Dan Mullen and Gainesville.

Who has time for race with presses issues like this at the forefront.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

New Zealand has been in the news for taking steps to reduce coronavirus infections. So I imagine that people were just trying to escape all of the current crises with one move :-)

They have also enacted some pretty impressive gun laws after their mass shooting last year.

Probably plenty of folks dreaming about what it would be like to live in a land where there is effective governance.

[Swaggs]

What do we think the biggest remaining game changer left could be (beyond either becoming incapacitated or dying)?

I'd like to run a sim to see what would happen if George W. or, to a lesser extent, Laura Bush came out and endorsed Biden.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

What do we think the biggest remaining game changer left could be (beyond either becoming incapacitated or dying)?

I'd like to run a sim to see what would happen if George W. or, to a lesser extent, Laura Bush came out and endorsed Biden.

If Trump came out and said that he wants to get rid of Roe v. Wade so that the government could then force people on welfare to get abortions, I could see that costing him some evangelical votes.

Also, I think that Putin is too smart for a tape like this to exist, but if a tape came out of Trump and Putin explicitly plotting against the United States, I think that could be a game changer.

If Biden, for whatever reason, pledged to put Bernie and AOC in his cabinet and pack the court, I could see that being a game changer too. I don’t think Biden actually wants to do any of those things, but it would change the game.

[GrantDawg]

Unscientific, totally antidotal view: I am seeing all my very strong Trump supporter acquaintances on Facebook trashing Trump's performance last night. People I have never seen say anything bad about him are saying they are embarrassed. I don't expect any of them to switch their vote, but how many Trump supporters may decide to stay home because of last night?

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[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Unscientific, totally antidotal view: I am seeing all my very strong Trump supporter acquaintances on Facebook trashing Trump's performance last night. People I have never seen say anything bad about him are saying they are embarrassed. I don't expect any of them to switch their vote, but how many Trump supporters may decide to stay home because of last night?

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If I had one wish? All of them.

[Atocep]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/commiss...xt-debate/#app


Looks like cutting mics is on the table for the next 2 debates.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Unscientific, totally antidotal view: I am seeing all my very strong Trump supporter acquaintances on Facebook trashing Trump's performance last night. People I have never seen say anything bad about him are saying they are embarrassed. I don't expect any of them to switch their vote, but how many Trump supporters may decide to stay home because of last night?

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Not so much for my wife's friends and family. They saw Biden as a bumbling fool and Trump gave a strong performance against both Biden and Wallace.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Atocep

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/commiss...xt-debate/#app

Looks like cutting mics is on the table for the next 2 debates.

"If they break the rules".

They should just cut of the mics up front assuming that both have opportunities to rebut each other (uninterrupted). But definitely better than nothing.

[Atocep]

Some 538 numbers:

Biden is up to a 7.6 point lead nationally after some strong polls came in today. RCP is back up to 6.6 points fwiw.

Heading into the first debate 538 had Hillary up 1.4 points.

If the election were held today 538's model would give Trump a 9% chance to win the election (he's currently at 21%).

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Some 538 numbers:

Biden is up to a 7.6 point lead nationally after some strong polls came in today. RCP is back up to 6.6 points fwiw.

Heading into the first debate 538 had Hillary up 1.4 points.

If the election were held today 538's model would give Trump a 9% chance to win the election (he's currently at 21%).

That's good news. Would love to see a big/decent bump for Biden in the swing states. That would make me feel better, but, I'm still gun shy from 2016 so I'm not counting the chickens before I make chicken salad.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/commiss...xt-debate/#app


Looks like cutting mics is on the table for the next 2 debates.

Before I even read the article, my question was why would the Trump campaign agree to that stipulation?

Then this quote from the article.

Tim Murtaugh, communications director for the Trump campaign, criticized the commission for the forthcoming measures.

"They're only doing this because their guy got pummeled last night," he said in a statement. "President Trump was the dominant force and now Joe Biden is trying to work the refs. They shouldn't be moving the goalposts and changing the rules in the middle of the game."

I don't know if the campaigns agree about to the terms of debate for all the debates at once or prior to each individual one. If it is the former, then I agree with with the Trump campaign. It is not the Trump campaign's fault that the Commission decided to give the President the benefit of the doubt as far as following the rules with no way to hold him accountable if he did not.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Unscientific, totally antidotal view: I am seeing all my very strong Trump supporter acquaintances on Facebook trashing Trump's performance last night. People I have never seen say anything bad about him are saying they are embarrassed. I don't expect any of them to switch their vote, but how many Trump supporters may decide to stay home because of last night?

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My experience is much more like Atocep. People complaining about the moderator being in the tank for Biden.

[albionmoonlight]

But, I do think there’s one possibility that it’s not off the table. In a normal election, if one candidate is very likely to lose, there’s often a surge towards the winning candidate at the very end. People don’t like to be associated with losers. People want to be on the winning team.

Now, I do not think that is likely to happen here because Trump’s base is all in for Trump. But, part of the Trump and Trump voter image is definitely not being a loser. So I see it is unlikely but possible that a lot of Trump leaners end up jumping off the ship right before the end. It’s all cream cheese as long as you’re winning. But he’s definitely not worth supporting if you’re just going to lose anyway.

[NobodyHere]

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So I see it is unlikely but possible that a lot of Trump leaners end up jumping off the ship right before the end. It’s all cream cheese as long as you’re winning. But he’s definitely not worth supporting if you’re just going to lose anyway.

Not ignoring the rest of your comment, but, this is the part that interests me the most. I think if a lot other trump supporters do jump off of s.s. trump, it's so they can say they didn't vote for him to try to avoid any perceived repercussions. Because a lot of these people would want liberals and people on the left to be punished, so they think that the same thing will happen to them if they lose (they are wrong). As racist as they may be, it's not illegal, so the most it would probably cost them would be socially and professionally. That's how I think they will rationalize why they jump ship, not because trump is that bad, but because they fear the repercussions of their actions when the 'other team' is in control. That's just my top of the head, gut feeling, no sources to back that up, thoughts on it and could be totally wrong.

[Butter]

Trump voters will just lie and say they didn't vote for him. You act like these people have some kind of guiding moral code.

Well they do, but it's way out of whack.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Butter

Trump voters will just lie and say they didn't vote for him. You act like these people have some kind of guiding moral code.

Well they do, but it's way out of whack.

Oh definitely not lost on me.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

What do we think the biggest remaining game changer left could be (beyond either becoming incapacitated or dying)?

I'd like to run a sim to see what would happen if George W. or, to a lesser extent, Laura Bush came out and endorsed Biden.

I don’t know if they will actually be game-changers, but I fully anticipate disinformation and/or deepfake tapes coming out this month.

[Izulde]

What's been most hilarious to me is watching all these tone-deaf Libertarians who don't know how to read a room.

Many of my FB circle who are either right-leaning or far left have commented frustrations about not knowing what to do or who to vote for because of how much they loathe both candidates. Invariably, you get at least three Libertarians saying "Vote Libertarian! Vote Jo Johnson!". Absolutely zero effort or attempt to connect with what the person is saying. It's literally the spambot version of promoting Libertarianism done by real people.

On the other hand, I always reply with how if it was any other Republican other than Trump this election, I would be voting third party. But I just can't because it's Trump. And I talk about how his Presidency has greatly damaged our reputation internationally and directly contributed to the breakdown of our civil discourse. I don't mention policy, don't get into issues. Just point out things they can see with their own eyes that isn't tied to ideology.

I also bring up voting for Nader in 2000 and how I lived to regret that choice (bringing in Gore losing Florida by 252 votes and how while it's true that one vote doesn't change things, when enough people take on that one vote doesn't matter, it can reach a critical mass that does swing elections).

[tarcone]

Gore would have been a disaster after 9/11 IMO. Whether we knew it was coming or not or could have prevented, which I doubt. Bush was the right man at the right time. Not that he was the greatest president ever.

As for one vote making a difference, I refer back to my vote in our alderman election. Both candidates were jokes as they tend to be in small town good ol boy politics. I wrote in a name. The incumbent won by one vote. I was one of 2 to write in a vote. So, yes, one vote does matter.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Izulde

What's been most hilarious to me is watching all these tone-deaf Libertarians who don't know how to read a room.

Many of my FB circle who are either right-leaning or far left have commented frustrations about not knowing what to do or who to vote for because of how much they loathe both candidates. Invariably, you get at least three Libertarians saying "Vote Libertarian! Vote Jo Johnson!". Absolutely zero effort or attempt to connect with what the person is saying. It's literally the spambot version of promoting Libertarianism done by real people.

On the other hand, I always reply with how if it was any other Republican other than Trump this election, I would be voting third party. But I just can't because it's Trump. And I talk about how his Presidency has greatly damaged our reputation internationally and directly contributed to the breakdown of our civil discourse. I don't mention policy, don't get into issues. Just point out things they can see with their own eyes that isn't tied to ideology.

I also bring up voting for Nader in 2000 and how I lived to regret that choice (bringing in Gore losing Florida by 252 votes and how while it's true that one vote doesn't change things, when enough people take on that one vote doesn't matter, it can reach a critical mass that does swing elections).

Yea, I don't think they are thinking things fully through. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have more than 2 candidates to choose from, because I think it would probably force the democrats and republicans to stop entering the same horses into the race (state and federal levels) and keep incumbents from getting too comfortable. However, with next to zero support in congress from fellow 3rd party members, if that 3rd party candidate magically won the election for president, they would be the lamest of lame duck presidents ever in my opinion.

[JPhillips]

If my choice was Trump or anyone else, I'd pick someone other than Biden, but in a choice between Trump and Biden, I'll vote Biden enthusiastically.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Yea, I don't think they are thinking things fully through. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have more than 2 candidates to choose from, because I think it would probably force the democrats and republicans to stop entering the same horses into the race (state and federal levels) and keep incumbents from getting too comfortable. However, with next to zero support in congress from fellow 3rd party members, if that 3rd party candidate magically won the election for president, they would be the lamest of lame duck presidents ever in my opinion.

I think the other issue is that they don't ever seem to want to make a case for their candidate. Or say one thing and that should be enough (in the past it was the Libertarian candidate was going to legalize weed). It'd probably be different if they said, vote for the Libertarian - they are committed to X, Y, Z, etc. Though for people on the far left or far right who are conflicted about their candidate... there are a LOT of issues with the Libertarians that they aren't even beginning to deal with.

Like, oh, you are upset with Biden because you backed Sanders? Vote Libertarian - we'll slash the government! What?!

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Gore would have been a disaster after 9/11 IMO. Whether we knew it was coming or not or could have prevented, which I doubt. Bush was the right man at the right time. Not that he was the greatest president ever.

How? 9/11 was the downfall of this country. Turned us into a surveillance state that tossed trillions into de-stabilizing the Middle East for 2 wars that we lost. Bin Laden won.

[stevew]

400k dead iraqis thank Bush for their freedom.

[thesloppy]

A certain flavor of libertarian I've interacted with are simply contrarians in disguise from even themselves. They don't have anything to offer other than the opposite of whatever you happen to be talking about.

[Jas_lov]

2000 and 2016 were the most important elections I have voted in. Had they gone the other way I think we'd be a lot better off as a country than we are now. There's no way Gore would have been worse than Bush. Trump is really bad but I think Bush was worse with how things were when he left office.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I think the other issue is that they don't ever seem to want to make a case for their candidate. Or say one thing and that should be enough (in the past it was the Libertarian candidate was going to legalize weed). It'd probably be different if they said, vote for the Libertarian - they are committed to X, Y, Z, etc. Though for people on the far left or far right who are conflicted about their candidate... there are a LOT of issues with the Libertarians that they aren't even beginning to deal with.

Like, oh, you are upset with Biden because you backed Sanders? Vote Libertarian - we'll slash the government! What?!

Absolutely man! You bring up a couple of very good points. The main one to me is the over simplification of everything. To be honest, the only issues I hear/read them bring up are, "taxation is theft" and "slash the government (which usually translates into deregulate everything and let the market decide)" with some left leaning stances on social issues thrown in here and there. Not really the best way to pull those people from both the far right and left in my opinion. For me, from my left side perception is, they really don't sound any different than republicans. They talk a good game on paper, but, in practice, I'm not seeing much of difference between republicans and libertarians.

Admittedly, I know there are right libertarians and left libertarians, but, it seems the majority that I've witnessed are the Right variety and very rarely the Left variety. They need a serious image makeover in my opinion.

I think when it comes to those people that have a problem with Biden and since Sanders didn't get the nomination are upset, could use a good dose of pragmatism, instead taking their ball and going home.

[GrantDawg]

New WSB poll for Georgia has Biden plus 2 over Trump. This is notable because this poll had Trump up by 7 last month, and it is a post-debate poll. The poll showed 9% influenced by the debate.

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[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

A certain flavor of libertarian I've interacted with are simply contrarians in disguise from even themselves. They don't have anything to offer other than the opposite of whatever you happen to be talking about.

Absolutely this. They were that kid in HS, they are that guy now.

[Atocep]

In a stunning turn of events a Trump campaign official in Philly had to be escorted out of a satellite election office by police for filming video, taking pictures inside a voting booth, and refusing to leave.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

New WSB poll for Georgia has Biden plus 2 over Trump. This is notable because this poll had Trump up by 7 last month, and it is a post-debate poll. The poll showed 9% influenced by the debate.

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Oh damn, that'd be amazing!

[GrantDawg]

Hope Hicks reportedly has tested positive for coronavirus. That's getting pretty close to the president's inner circle.

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