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Old 06-09-2008, 08:21 AM   #1
QuikSand
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Pick Six carryover at Belmont on Wednesday

Largely due to Big Brown's loss in the feature race, Belmont is carrying over some $1.2 million in the pick six pool. That means that we're looking at a potentially very lucrative betting opportunity for that day.

While most people who aren't serious racing fans might only pay attention a few times of year, a June Wednesday at Belmont is actually a more representative illustration of what the sports is all about underneath it all. The day's card will likely be full of claiming races, decent allowances, and the like -- rather than million-dollar shippers coming from all corners of the world. The only thing exceptional about the day's card will be that there will be tons of people trying to shoot for the pick six, due to the massive carryover.

If anyone's interested, I'm game for having a look at the card for the day... and (in all honestly) I am likely to be getting in a bet myself. If you're casually interested, we can use this thread as a place to do a little collective handicapping. I'll try to rustle up some free past performance data, we'll do what we can.


Incidentally, if you're one of the people who are motivated to take a dump on the sport for whatever reason, just skip this one, please. You disapprove. We get it. Pick another spot.

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Old 06-09-2008, 08:23 AM   #2
Butter
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How much does a Pick Six pay out, usually?
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Old 06-09-2008, 08:31 AM   #3
gkb
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I'm interested in this, but mostly just to see how you handicap a race. I'm a complete horse racing novice so I won't have anything to offer. Where can you go to see who's on that day's card? I'm not even sure what a Pick 6 is...I'm guessing that you have to pick the winning horse in six races? I'll go Google it...
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Old 06-09-2008, 08:31 AM   #4
QuikSand
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Quote:
NEW YORK PICK WAGERING RULES

"Pick 6" In the event of a late scratch, the bettor receives the actual betting favorite. There is no mandatory payout of the Pick 6 pool unless it is closing day of a race meeting. Bettors selecting all six winners in the Pick 6 sequence share in 75 percent of the net wagering pool, while the remaining 25 percent is always paid as a consolation or minor prize. In the event no bettor selects all six winners, there is a carryover pool to the next day of racing.

Just for reference. Usually there are at least a few winners on a given day (especially a high profile day) and they split up the bulk of the betting pool. But when there are no winners, that chunk of the money gets carried over to the following day and added to the Pick 6 pool for that day.

On an average June at Belmont, I would guess (off the top of my head) that maybe a half million dollars gets wagered. Here, we are actually seeing more than a million being carried over from people who can't win Wednesday -- that makes for a very attractive bet opportunity on Wednesday.


As for the payout -- it depends on the odds of the horses who win the races, obviously. It's essentially like betting six straight races and letting the payouts ride race to race. In complex bets like these, the favorites tend to be overbet a good deal, so the bigger prices tend to make the payouts even more generous.

As an example -- if all six of your winners went off at modest odds of 2-1, that would mean that the expected payout on a $2 bet would be in the neighborhood of $1,500. I have hit one pick six on a Belmont weekday in June, and without any particuarly big payouts, it paid a bit over $6K. If a few longshots hit the board, or a heavy favorite misses, then the payouts can sometimes get very very generous, even into the millions. The pick six is the bet designed to lure in people who are not really excited about winning twenty or a hundred dollars by making one or two good decisions, but rather by the slim chance of winning a huge bonanza.
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Old 06-09-2008, 08:33 AM   #5
QuikSand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gkb View Post
I'm not even sure what a Pick 6 is...I'm guessing that you have to pick the winning horse in six races?

Correct - six winners. Big payout (usually) for picking all six winners, and a consolation for picking 5 out of 6, the size of which varies wildly.
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Old 06-09-2008, 09:29 AM   #6
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Here is the basic information on entires for Wednesday:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...ate=2008-06-11
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Old 06-09-2008, 09:30 AM   #7
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4th Race - Belmont Park - Wednesday, June 11th, 2008
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $52,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of $26,000 At A Mile Or Over Since April 11 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races where entered for $20,000 or less not considered). (02:36 PM) (10)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Love Co 3 F L 116 Prado Edgar S. Contessa Gary C.
2 My Dinah 3 F L 116 Espinoza Jose L. Feron Kathleen M.
3 Aly's Colors 6 M L 121 Sanchez Jeffrey Ronen Assaf
4 City In The Clouds 4 F L 121 Coa Eibar Galluscio Dominic G.
5 Seventeen Love 5 M L 121 Garcia Alan Hills Timothy A.
6 Guts Game 4 F L 121 Gomez Garrett K. Asmussen Steven M.
7 Silver Elegance 4 F L 121 Luzzi Michael J. Bond H. James
8 La Mure 4 F L 114 Morales Sebastian Leatherbury King T.
9 Reyana's Jet 4 F L 121 Maragh Rajiv Persaud Randi
10 Duchess Of Rokeby 4 F L 121 Chavez Jorge F. Jerkens H. Allen

5th Race - Belmont Park - Wednesday, June 11th, 2008
CLAIMING. 1 1/8 Mile Turf. Purse $34,000. INNER TURF (UP TO $6,460 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners of a race at a mile or over on the turf since April 11 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $35,000 (Races where entered for $25,000 or less not considered) (Winners Preferred). (03:08 PM) (14)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Elder Skatesman 5 G L 120 Samyn Jean-Luc Allyn William F.
2 All In No Outs 4 G L b 120 Coa Eibar Galluscio Dominic G.
3 Prairie Boy 5 H L 120 Sanchez Jeffrey Correa Jeff
4 Morning's Image 9 G L 113 Morales Sebastian Corrao James
5 Kick Up Your Heels 5 G L 120 Prado Edgar S. Martin, Sr. Frank
6 Hot Table 4 C L 120 Desormeaux Kent J. Mott William I.
7 Youbethecan 4 C L 120 Velasquez Cornelio H. Dutrow, Jr. Richard E.
8 Allaboutmack 5 G L 120 Hill Channing Lostritto Joseph A.
9 Nikkinikkinikki 3 G L o 115 Velazquez John R. Barbara Robert
10 Bad Streak 3 G L 115 Chavez Jorge F. Ubillo Rodrigo A.
11 Taken Not Given 5 G L 120 Rodriguez Rudy R. Contessa Gary C.
12 Classic Impact 5 G L 120 Espinoza Jose L. Englehart Jeremiah C.
13 Star For Tina 4 G L 120 Samyn Jean-Luc Kelly Patrick J.
14 Flash Of Victory 4 G L 120 Castellano Javier Alexander Bruce F.

6th Race - Belmont Park - Wednesday, June 11th, 2008
STARTER ALLOWANCE. 1 1/16 Mile Turf. Purse $49,000. (UP TO $9,310 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners of a race at a mile or over on the turf since April 11 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races where entered for $35,000 or less not considered in allowances) (Winners Preferred). (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, this race will be run at One Mile and One Sixteenth on the main track.). (03:40 PM) (12)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Sumphin 4 G L 121 Desormeaux Kent J. Jacobson David
2 Stormy Mirage 3 C L 119 Velazquez John R. Iwinski Allen
3 Footloose Man 3 C L 119 Garcia Alan Hennig Mark A.
4 Romp (ARG) 4 G L 121 Maragh Rajiv Brown Bruce R.
5 Brushed Prince 5 G L 114 Berrios Cruz Joseph Allyn William F.
6 Willsboro Point 3 G 117 Coa Eibar Schwartz Scott M.
7 Personal Good 3 C L 117 Hill Channing McDonald Michael K.
8 Dancing Tin Man 5 G L 121 Velasquez Cornelio H. Donk David G.
9 Chalook 6 G L 121 Espinoza Jose L. McManus Thomas F.
10 Baystreet Bully 3 C L 119 Samyn Jean-Luc Jolley LeRoy S.
11 Saint Barr 4 C L 121 Prado Edgar S. Dutrow, Jr. Richard E.
12 Red Demon 4 G L 121 Luzzi Michael J. Ortiz Juan

7th Race - Belmont Park - Wednesday, June 11th, 2008
ALLOWANCE. 6 Furlongs Turf. Purse $49,000. INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners of $24,000 on the turf since April 11 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races where entered for $35,000 or less not considered in allowances) (Preference by condition eligibility). (04:12 PM) (16)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1A La Ransom 3 F L 116 Desormeaux Kent J. Dutrow Anthony W.
2B Our Montana Dream 5 M L 121 Gomez Oscar Candlin John
3 Koufax Curve 3 F L 116 Prado Edgar S. Contessa Gary C.
4 Justinline 3 F L 118 Maragh Rajiv Cedano Heriberto
5 Flying Sappho 5 M L 121 Velazquez John R. O'Brien Keith
6 Citifiesta 3 F L 118 Samyn Jean-Luc Hertler John O.
7 Mia 4 F L 121 Chavez Jorge F. Gyarmati Leah
8 Zip By You 4 F L 121 Coa Eibar Grennan George J.
9 Myakka 3 F L 116 Velasquez Cornelio H. Rice Linda
10 Cizi 4 F L 121 Rodriguez Rudy R. Schwartz Scott M.
11 Classic Love 3 F L 116 Hill Channing Callejas Bernardo
12 Posey Park 4 F L 121 Espinoza Jose L. Alvarez Luis C.
13A Mine Or Who's 3 F L 116 Desormeaux Kent J. Mott William I.
14B Union Center 5 M L 121 Gomez Oscar Candlin John
15 Karakorum Playmate 3 F L 109 Morales Sebastian Odintz Jeff
16B Kitty Nip 5 M L 121 Gomez Oscar Candlin John
A-coupled: La Ransom and Mine Or Who's
B-coupled: Kitty Nip and Our Montana Dream and Union Center

8th Race - Belmont Park - Wednesday, June 11th, 2008
ALLOWANCE. 7 Furlongs Turf. Purse $55,000. (UP TO $10,450 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners of $24,000 on the turf since April 11 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races where entered for $50,000 or less not considered in allowances) (Preference by condition eligibility). (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, this race will be run at Seven Furlongs on the main track.). (04:45 PM) (10)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Betelo 3 C L 119 Desormeaux Kent J. Mott William I.
2 Jed Greeley 4 C L 121 Garcia Alan Tesher Howard M.
3 Unbridled Refrain 3 C L 117 Sanchez Jeffrey Jerkens H. Allen
4 Cloud Nine 3 C L 119 Espinoza Jose L. Turner, Jr. William H.
5 Pennington 4 G L 123 Coa Eibar Violette, Jr. Richard A.
6 Big Wig 3 C L 117 Gomez Garrett K. Pletcher Todd A.
7 Raynicks Fan 4 G L 121 Velasquez Cornelio H. Asmussen Steven M.
8 Papa Bear 4 C L 121 Hill Channing Hushion Michael E.
9 Forest Of Dreams 4 C L 121 Castellano Javier Jerkens James A.
10 Pluracity 3 C L 117 Velazquez John R. Iwinski Allen

9th Race - Belmont Park - Wednesday, June 11th, 2008
CLAIMING. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $41,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners of a race since April 7 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Races where entered for $15,000 or less not considered). (05:17 PM) (14)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Bomber D Back 3 G L 117 Garcia Alan Barbara Robert
2 Mackinaw 3 G L 119 Hill Channing DeMola Richard
3 Never Stop Dreamin 4 C L 123 Espinoza Jose L. DeMola Joseph
4 Say Karakorm Sandy 3 G L 117 Rodriguez Rudy R. Odintz Jeff
5 Stand Pat 3 C L 117 Sanchez Jeffrey Friedman Mitchell E.
6 E Z Dollar 3 G L 110 Morales Sebastian Hertler John O.
7 Newmont 4 G L b 121 Luzzi Michael J. Peitz Daniel C.
8 Estimator 4 G L 121 Velasquez Cornelio H. Hernandez Ramon M.
9 Golden Amulet 4 G L 121 Castellano Javier Carroll, II Del W.
10 Ten Forty 4 C L 121 Desormeaux Kent J. Levine Bruce N.
11 Conquer The Fear 4 G L 123 Coa Eibar Domino Carl J.
12 Honor Evening 3 C L 117 Maragh Rajiv Galluscio Dominic G.
13 Five Demon Bag 4 C L 123 Bermudez Jose E. Gullo Gary P.
14 Unbridled Wish 3 C L 119 Hill Channing Jacobson David

Last edited by QuikSand : 06-09-2008 at 09:57 AM.
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Old 06-09-2008, 09:31 AM   #8
QuikSand
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Four turf races...woo boy!
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Old 06-09-2008, 10:22 AM   #9
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A $1.2 million carryover is huge. I'll bet that the pool will be over $2 million once the pick six starts. I'll join in on some of the handicapping.
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Old 06-09-2008, 10:49 AM   #10
KWhit
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How would someone in Georgia go about making a bet on this? Theoretically, of course.
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Old 06-09-2008, 10:57 AM   #11
billethius
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KWhit View Post
How would someone in Georgia go about making a bet on this? Theoretically, of course.

If there aren't any local tracks or off-track betting facilities, you're only option is online (TVG carries Belmont). Unless, of course, that's illegal in Georgia.
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Old 06-09-2008, 11:00 AM   #12
QuikSand
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A major caution for online bettors -- check your carrier's rules. Many online gaming houses offer horseracing wagers and track payouts, but *many* carry limits on what they will pay on any given wager. They don't mind you hitting a horse at 20-1 for $40 or something, but they don't want you (or anyone) to land a million dollar pick six and really hurt their finances -- they are not protected like the track pool is by its nature.

WSEX, for instance, caps its payouts at $200, I think, making even exacta betting sometimes a shaky proposition. A pick six at a place like that is completely out of the question, obviously. READ THE SMALL PRINT.
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Old 06-09-2008, 11:22 AM   #13
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I've always thought that the best way to approach a big pick 6 like this is to create the best ticket you can while not worrying about the initial cost. Then, as you start to hit winners, you sell 'shares' of the ticket for a given amount (say, $50 on a $2 million pick 6). So at worst you end up getting most of your money back by selling the shares and at best you have to split the winnings from hitting the pick 6.
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Old 06-09-2008, 11:36 AM   #14
weegeebored
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Obviously the more money spent on tickets the better. Pick 6 ticket costs are very, very high if you want any coverage at all. For example, a 2x2x2x2x2x2 is $64 -- and that's not a whole lot of coverage. Being able to "single" a leg or two is better as you can go deeper on the legs that are more difficult to handicap.

Also, the sharpies tend to get more involved when there is a big carryover and they have lots of coverage that will include the chalks. Staying away from favorites would be a good strategy here unless you are singling. I would also recommend pooling resources with other people (if possible). More tickets mean a better chance of hitting. (Duh!) It would be best if the members of the group had specialty areas that matched the race types. A good turf 'capper would be beneficial for Wed races. (Plus be prepared the possibility that the races could come off the turf due to the weather.)

Last edited by weegeebored : 06-09-2008 at 12:21 PM. Reason: grammar
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Old 06-09-2008, 11:42 AM   #15
QuikSand
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I have run a fair number of syndicate bets, and there are as many ways to built a pick six ticket as there are people who claim to know the one best way.

I am likely to put together a series of tickets for something like $200 for Wednesday.

Last edited by QuikSand : 06-09-2008 at 11:43 AM.
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Old 06-09-2008, 12:24 PM   #16
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I would love to handicap ths but I have 2 finals
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Old 06-09-2008, 02:48 PM   #17
gkb
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Time to display my ignorance of even the most basic horse racing information.

Quote:
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Bomber D Back 3 G L 117 Garcia Alan Barbara Robert

I'm guessing at these...

PP = pole position (1)
Horse = Horse's name (Bomber D Back)
A/S = Age Sex (3 G) So 3 years old and my first thought was girl...maybe gelding?
M/E = I have no idea here (L)
Wgt = Weight (117) Gotta be the jockey's weight
Jockey = Jockey's name ... but is his name Alan Garcia, just Garcia?
Trainer = Trainer(s) Just the trainer's first name(s)?
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Old 06-09-2008, 02:55 PM   #18
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Post position, yes. G = gelding. L = lasix (a diuretic). Alan Garcia is the jock and Robert Barbara is the trainer.
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Old 06-09-2008, 03:02 PM   #19
billethius
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Also note that the weight there isn't the jockey's weight but the weight that the horse will be assigned to carry. If the jockey is lighter than the assigned weight, the horse will carry some extra lead weights in the saddle (I believe that's still where they put it). If the jockey is heavier, then the horse has to carry more weight. Conventional wisdom says that 1lb = 1 length for evenly matched horses. I don't buy that theory, though.

Last edited by billethius : 06-09-2008 at 03:03 PM.
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Old 06-09-2008, 03:13 PM   #20
QuikSand
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M/E is medication or equipment. Many things of that nature must be reported to the track, and are included in the program data for bettors.
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Old 06-09-2008, 03:20 PM   #21
QuikSand
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Incidentally, it looks like a lot of organized money is going to hit this race card:

hxxp://www.twinspires.com/content/playerspool

...just in case anyone is interested...this is a gambling site, setting up a major syndicate to try to beat the Belmont pick six.

Last edited by QuikSand : 06-09-2008 at 03:21 PM. Reason: hxxp link - gambling site
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Old 06-09-2008, 03:43 PM   #22
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I will post PP information in this thread tomorrow, or late tonight. Sorry for the delay - but the stuff I want isn't posted yet.
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Old 06-09-2008, 04:13 PM   #23
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It's looking like a really busy week days and evenings, but I'll try and take a look tonight and see if anything strikes me.
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Old 06-09-2008, 05:03 PM   #24
weegeebored
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post
Incidentally, it looks like a lot of organized money is going to hit this race card:

hxxp://www.twinspires.com/content/playerspool

...just in case anyone is interested...this is a gambling site, setting up a major syndicate to try to beat the Belmont pick six.
If history is an indicator, the Brisnet/TwinSpires tickets aren't usually well-constructed. See these threads from a well-respected handicapping board.

hxxp://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46573&highlight=pick+pool

hxxp://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=40824&page=1&highlight=pick+pool+players

hxxp://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=32224&page=1&highlight=pick+pool+players
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Old 06-09-2008, 06:48 PM   #25
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Times like this one are what makes me disappointed that the off-track at the casino nearby shut down a few months ago and now I'd have to go about 45 minutes to the racetrack to lay down a few dollars to try to win part of this pool.
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Old 06-09-2008, 06:58 PM   #26
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I love going to the horse races a couple times a year. What I hate is when I go with someone that doesn't know the proper way to lose their money.

I actually won the last 6 out of 7 times I have been to LA Downs, but have never won at SHRP (about 10 trips). I do better with the DRF because they don't have odds and most the time I hit something bigger. Over 90 percent of my bets are Pick 3's.

Good Luck

Last edited by TCY Junkie : 06-09-2008 at 06:59 PM.
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Old 06-09-2008, 11:43 PM   #27
stevew
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If I don't win by picking the correct 6 horses this week, do I double my bet and pick 12 winners next week.
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Old 06-10-2008, 07:51 AM   #28
QuikSand
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For those who are not really familiar with PP information and its structure, here's a nice primer for the BRIS data. They still don't have the final information (morning line, like it or not, is a major element of multi-race wagering) so I'll hold off on posting the file itself, but this is to help out once we get there.

hxxp://www.brisnet.com/library/uwc.pdf

Last edited by QuikSand : 06-10-2008 at 07:51 AM.
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Old 06-10-2008, 12:51 PM   #29
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Bad decision to wait for the full information... but here it is. I have less time than I had hoped for to look things over, but I'm still weighing my options in running over a ticket.

Here's the link to the PP file for the whole day... Pick Six runs races 4-9, I'm pretty sure.

http://www.fof-ihof.com/upload/QuikS...ont_pick_6.pdf
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:07 PM   #30
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Very quick observation... it's going to be a total bitch to find a couple of singles for this bet.
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:11 PM   #31
path12
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Wow. Those Brisnet PP's have a lot of info. I'm going to have to check that out next time I go to Emerald Downs.

Nothing standing out so far though, but I'm just starting to look.
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:16 PM   #32
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The 8th race is pretty intriguing -- 7f turf race for 3+, and quite a number of first time turfers. The #1 is Mott and will get pounded, but I don't see enough there to like. Best proven turf form is probably the #5 at 5-1, which makes for a pretty nice price. Among the first time on grass, I think the bloodlines suggest the #3 is a huge overlay at 20-1.

Tough race to single, and while taking a stand against Mott in his kind if race is a risky proposition, it can really be a lucrative one, as his charge will likely be overbet in the exotics by the pseudo wiseguys.
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:21 PM   #33
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Race 4:

Find me a closer! Unfortunately none of the obvious closers look all that menacing either being slow or stretching out to a mile.

I generally dislike these statebred conditions. LOVE CO has a lot going for it with the switch to Prado and second time back. Very concerned she may be dueled to the death though unless Prado can get a nice trip in the garden spot. You have to use that one.

MY DINAH came flying from behind sprinting but the routes scream a presser style. Again, the early pace is really concerning here and will determine the outcome. I'd use this one too.

CITY IN THE CLOUDS failed at this level last time as the favorite, was claimed though. Not following the Belmont circut closely hurts here by not knowing what to expect off the claim. Looks to have the right style for this race but for some reason I'm taking a stand against. She'll be low odds.

I'd use REYANNAS JET as my horse to pick up the pieces late. 99/1 morning line? That's either a misprint or really strange. Love them on 5 days rest....is good now.
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:29 PM   #34
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The 99-1 is clearly a misprint. I put in REYANNA'S JET into my thinking at first, but now I'm not so sure. I don't think she's picking up the pieces of anything. I like MY DINAH best of the lot right now.
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:33 PM   #35
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Location: Annapolis, Md
#6 HOT TABLE at 3-1 in the 5th race might be as good a single as I can find. Ugh. This is either going to get really expensive, or it's going to end up being a wing-and-prayer wager.
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:34 PM   #36
rkmsuf
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post
The 99-1 is clearly a misprint. I put in REYANNA'S JET into my thinking at first, but now I'm not so sure. I don't think she's picking up the pieces of anything. I like MY DINAH best of the lot right now.

I'm not convinced either. The route races suggest a pressing trip. I'm hoping for a miracle here. When the cost of the ticket skyrockets as I go, this race is likely the 1 and 2 for me.
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:41 PM   #37
rkmsuf
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RACE 5

HOT TABLE failed as the favorite last time. Is back for another go round is this horrid affair. Toss all the 1 for as many races as we can send them out horses and there are few contenders.

YOUBETHECAN, NIKKINIKKINIKKI and ALLINNOOUTS could easily win this.

Beyond those it would be total nonsense. How you separate these 4 is beyond me. Haven't looked at the other races...sounds like using 4 here isn't going to be doable.
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:49 PM   #38
Celeval
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In the first race, I'm going with PAUL REVERE (assuming clear weather). Second, VALENTINE, which is in the morning line as 5-9. Third race, EPITATH by a half.

I know nothing about horse racing, but reading this stuff is pretty intriguing. Thanks for doing it out in the open.

Last edited by Celeval : 06-10-2008 at 01:49 PM.
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:52 PM   #39
rkmsuf
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RACE 6

First blush I wanted to like SAINT BARR. I don't think he gets the trip here. Looks like a couple inside will go early.

I'll use PERSONAL GOOD to stalk mid pack and DANCING TIN MAN to come from way back.
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:54 PM   #40
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
In Race 6, the change of stable looks good for the #2 STORMY MIRAGE. Not a good fit on speed figs, really, but on the improve and moves to Iwinski, who doesn't splash around too lightly at this level. My guess is we'll see more than the 10-1 opening line, but this could be the sort of bomber tho makes the ticket a little more tasty. I don't see any seriously heavy hitters in this field who look all that tough to beat.
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Old 06-10-2008, 02:00 PM   #41
path12
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In the 7th, MYAKKA looks like she might be able to get a fairly easy lead. The entry with MINE OR WHOS looks good also, but is outside of MYAKKA.
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Old 06-10-2008, 02:02 PM   #42
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Race 6 is ripe for a surprise...agreed.


RACE 7

I'm really drawn to KOUFAX CURVE here for the price and that slop race. But you also have to include MYAKKA who I hope is repelled by KOUFAX CURVE at the wire.
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Old 06-10-2008, 02:12 PM   #43
rkmsuf
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RACE 8

Uh, yeah.

I'm singling FOREST OF DREAMS to destroy this field.
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Old 06-10-2008, 02:38 PM   #44
rkmsuf
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RACE 9

TEN FORTY is up for sale but is getting lasix and Desmo. That horse has some problems but might be good enough here.

I'm not a believer in STAND PAT. That could bust the ticket but this is ultra cheap for that one after a 50K claim.

I would have to include GOLDEN AMULET here.

so that's

2X3X4X2X2X1X2

$192
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Old 06-10-2008, 02:52 PM   #45
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
My first draft is a $144 ticket:

1,2
6
2,7,8
1,9
3,5,9
6,10

Not very happy with it, though.
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Old 06-10-2008, 02:58 PM   #46
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to simplify

1,2,9
2,6,7,9
7,8
3,9
9
9,10

$192
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Old 06-10-2008, 07:59 PM   #47
lynchjm24
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Hartford
I spent Memorial Day at Calder and didn't cash a ticket. I did hit the tri on the Preakness... so here goes...

The 2$ dream:

1
5 (considered 14)
8
1 (considered 4)
5
10


Your FOFC Ticket? $3,888
1,2,9
2,5,6,7,9,14
2,7,8
1,3,4,9
3,5,9
6,9,10

Last edited by lynchjm24 : 06-10-2008 at 08:02 PM.
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Old 06-11-2008, 08:17 AM   #48
QuikSand
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
My schedule today got a lot tougher, and I am not sure that I'm even going to be able to get to the track to get down the bet. *sigh* I don't feel particularly good about the ticket regardless, but I hate investing time and money and not even firing a shot. I'm checking online options.
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Old 06-11-2008, 12:30 PM   #49
billethius
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Yeah, I just got a chance to look at this myself. So, with about 30 minutes worth of looking, here's the ticket I'll throw out there:

1,2
2,11
4,8
3,4,9
5
5,8,10

$144
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Old 06-11-2008, 01:03 PM   #50
rkmsuf
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9 was scratched from the 4th.

1,2
2,6,7,9
7,8
3,9
9
9,10

$128
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