OT: Revisiting the Millwood/Estrada deal

[DeToxRox]

So at the half way point, I was wondering on your thoughts now on a trade that was supposedly very one way in favor of the Phills. Watching the Braves play today, John Schuerholz (Braves GM) was talking about Johnny Estrada, and how other NL scouts have said the best catcher in the NL is playing in Richmond. He was MVP of the AAA All Star game, he's currently hitting .334 in 90 games, and he was considered a marginal prospect.

Millwood is 10-7 with an ERA of 4, solid, but you'd expect better from your ace.

I will be honest, I had never heard of Estrada, and knew Millwood to be a solid pitcher. From the Braves point of view, they had to make the deal to keep Maddox, but they of course got Russ Ortiz who has been awesome.

So, as is the norm, the Braves who everyone counted out as being done this year are one of the top teams in the NL, while the Phillies have a slim lead in whats about an 8 team WC race.

And let's not forget, Millwood still may be back in Atlanta next year, and if that happen's, Phils fan's better be ready for things to once again get worse before they get better.

[ctmason]

I've learned that as a fan, you're safer NEVER questioning John Schuerholtz. Sure he's made some mariginal, or poor decisions (Kenny Lofton, not really his fault, though). But in Atlanta, we're blessed with solid front office management. I can't really look back on the past 10-12 years and point to one decision that cost the Braves anything significant.

This infuriates most sports talk show hosts in Atlanta, who honestly don't talk about the Braves all that much (at least not about any controversy). Now the Hawks.....well.

P.S. Drove by BOB for the first time today, I must say I was impressed.

[FBPro]

I heard the same on the game tonight, interesting to say the least.

[GrantDawg]

Not doing anything by the trade deadline will cost the Braves the series. Mark it.

[ctmason]

You got pretty good odds on that prediction, Grant. Not exactly going out on a limb are you?


If they get beat by a hot team, you were right, but how can you say its because they won't trade players?

[GrantDawg]

Originally posted by ctmason
You got pretty good odds on that prediction, Grant. Not exactly going out on a limb are you?


If they get beat by a hot team, you were right, but how can you say its because they won't trade players?

The pitching is going to impode in the playoffs. We don't have three solid starters, and we don't have the middle relief.

[DeToxRox]

If the playoffs started today, you have the Astros/Braves/Giants/Phillies..

None of them are that star studded at pitching.

I think this year the NL playoffs are gunna' be slugfests, and if that's the case, the braves are gonna' go to the show.

I think Smoltz is gunna' go 2 innings a lot in the postseason this year though, the bullpen is lacking.

[ctmason]

But you're under the impression that we could deal some offense away to get more solid pitching? I seriously doubt that would be a smart move, and a borderline impossibility considering the financial implications.

Nothing strikes me as impressive ERA-wise across the board. But I must say that Bong, Gryboski and even Roberto Hernandez have done a better than average job.

I'll disagree with you about the starters. Maddux could (and should) settle into playoff form (we've seen flashes of it this season) and I'd take Ortiz and Reynolds into the playoffs. Horacio Ramirez would be a great addition to middle relief if they decide to go that route.

The one thing that must conintue is the run support, that I believe is the key.

[sony]

Originally posted by DeToxRoxDVHStyle
So at the half way point, I was wondering on your thoughts now on a trade that was supposedly very one way in favor of the Phills. Watching the Braves play today, John Schuerholz (Braves GM) was talking about Johnny Estrada, and how other NL scouts have said the best catcher in the NL is playing in Richmond. He was MVP of the AAA All Star game, he's currently hitting .334 in 90 games, and he was considered a marginal prospect.

Millwood is 10-7 with an ERA of 4, solid, but you'd expect better from your ace.

I will be honest, I had never heard of Estrada, and knew Millwood to be a solid pitcher. From the Braves point of view, they had to make the deal to keep Maddox, but they of course got Russ Ortiz who has been awesome.

So, as is the norm, the Braves who everyone counted out as being done this year are one of the top teams in the NL, while the Phillies have a slim lead in whats about an 8 team WC race.

And let's not forget, Millwood still may be back in Atlanta next year, and if that happen's, Phils fan's better be ready for things to once again get worse before they get better.

You watched the Atlanta/Houston game on ESPN didn't ya?

When Tony Gwynn and that other guy was interviewing John Schuerholz .

I remember Johnny Estrada since 2 years ago. I was looking for some pointers to help my fantasy baseball league. And Johnny Estrada was listed as a sleeper.

I figured he'd blossom by now 2 years away. But I guess he is still considered a prospect.

I hope he blooms to be an everyday catcher for the Braves in the future.

[FBPro]

Well, gotta remember that just because no deal was made today doesn't mean a waiver deal won't happen down the road. Just a bit more tricky to pull together.

[GrantDawg]

Originally posted by FBPro
Well, gotta remember that just because no deal was made today doesn't mean a waiver deal won't happen down the road. Just a bit more tricky to pull together.

And be much less help. I don't know who we'd trade that could clear waivers. Just don't see it.

[Bad-example]

Originally posted by GrantDawg
And be much less help. I don't know who we'd trade that could clear waivers. Just don't see it.

Well you didn't forsee the Giants making the world series last time either as I recall.

[GrantDawg]

Originally posted by ctmason
But you're under the impression that we could deal some offense away to get more solid pitching? I seriously doubt that would be a smart move, and a borderline impossibility considering the financial implications.

Nothing strikes me as impressive ERA-wise across the board. But I must say that Bong, Gryboski and even Roberto Hernandez have done a better than average job.

I'll disagree with you about the starters. Maddux could (and should) settle into playoff form (we've seen flashes of it this season) and I'd take Ortiz and Reynolds into the playoffs. Horacio Ramirez would be a great addition to middle relief if they decide to go that route.

The one thing that must conintue is the run support, that I believe is the key.

Why would we have to deal away offense? Deal Betemit. Deal some minor league pitching. Deal whatever it takes. This team has the best shot since 95 to make it all the way, at least offensively. But pitching wise, we are in trouble. A three man rotation of Maddux (always been an iffy pitcher in the post season, imagine what he'll be like when he has been iffy all year), Ortiz (good starter, but streaky), and Reynolds (5.64 ERA!). Or Mike Hampton (there goes another home run!). Ugh! Then the middle relief picture is even scarier, and it will be important because none of these guys (save Ortiz) has gone more than 6 innings all season!

Put that up against Jason Schmidt, Kirk Rueter, and Sidney Ponson with Jerome Williams making a great case to be in that mix. Doesn't stack to well.

[sony]

As of right now, Atlanta's Pitchers don't fare too well compared to San Franciscos.

But I'm gonna be optimistic and say the Braves will come together and pull through.

I am hoping they all suprise us and turn it around.

[larrymcg421]

Maddux has a 3.23 ERA in the 30 postseason games and really turns it on for the World Series with a 2.09 ERA in 5 Games. Why do people consider him a poor postseason pitcher?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally posted by larrymcg421
Maddux has a 3.23 ERA in the 30 postseason games and really turns it on for the World Series with a 2.09 ERA in 5 Games. Why do people consider him a poor postseason pitcher?

Could be his 11-13 lifetime post-season record. Or the 6 losses in his last 8 decisions. Or that he's averaged last than 6 IP per outing over his last 8 starts.

FTR, Maddux is my favorite player during my lifetime so I'm not trying to bash him by any means, I'm just trying to answer the question.

[Qwikshot]

Originally posted by DeToxRoxDVHStyle
If the playoffs started today, you have the Astros/Braves/Giants/Phillies..

None of them are that star studded at pitching.

I think this year the NL playoffs are gunna' be slugfests, and if that's the case, the braves are gonna' go to the show.

I think Smoltz is gunna' go 2 innings a lot in the postseason this year though, the bullpen is lacking.

I beg to differ, the Phillies staff and bullpen is second best in E.R.A. (3.63 to LA's leading 3.06), the only reason they are borderline mediocre is because Pat Burrell who was supposed to have a breakout year, decided to hit near .200.

Millwood (top ace) and regardless of what happens at the end of the season, Millwood is the only reason the Phils have gone as far as they did, because otherwise it would be Randy Wolf who has shined as pitcher now in the two spot wouldn't have dealt well with the pressure of being the ace just yet. Padilla has come around (though is a threat to burnout 2nd half) and Brett Myers has become a monster as well. Their weakspot is the number 5 Kevin Duckworth a 27 year old with potential, but hasn't lived up to it.

The shocker is that the bullpen has done quite well. Cormier, Wendell, and old man Pleasac have held well. Now with Mike Williams as a setup (and a threat to Mesa, though a scary alternative at best), and Jose Mesa (a nail biter to watch but far better than Mitch "wild thing" Williams).

The Phillies pitching just doesn't get enough press, the bullpen was supposed to be a nightmare, but has come out quite stable (up till Mesa that is). The starting staff is young and durable (I know Millwood has had arm troubles but this year so far so good).

The weakspot for the Phils is hitting. Marlon Byrd has finally come around and started hitting. Polanco is having a career year (just in time for arbitration). Rollins has regressed and hasn't been running but still is a capable shortstop. Bell busted, but Tyler Houston can be servicable. Lieberthal has had a great many injury plagued seasons, but he's hitting well. The outfield is Abreau (very good hitter, weak power), Byrd/Ledee platoon (though Byrd is finally giving reasons for it to be soley his), and troubled Burrell.

And I know that Estrada is hitting well, good for him, I hope he gets the chance to start next season, but he wouldn't have started for the Phils this season either (unless Lieby got hurt), so it's still a win for the Phils in the shorterm, long term is still up in the air, but the Phils are interested in resigning Millwood, whether they'll have the cash will be a different story...but right now I'm just enjoying the ride.

[TroyF]

I'll add that the Giants have a very good, though underrated staff. They are currently 6th in all of baseball in ERA. They also have given up the third fewest HR in all of baseball. (Even throwing away their home field advantage, they've only given up 1 HR a game on the road) The Phillies have given up the 4th fewest.

I don't think the Braves can rely on winning games 12-8 in the post season. They need to find some stability in the bullpen.

This isn't even considering that the D-Backs sneak into the wildcard. Johnson, Schilling and Webb make a nasty 1-2-3 for anyone.

TroyF

[KWhit]

Originally posted by sony
I hope he blooms to be an everyday catcher for the Braves in the future.

It's fairly certain at this point that Estrada is our guy for next year. The Braves won't re-sign Lopez, so the starting job is Estrada's to lose.

[GrantDawg]

Originally posted by KWhit
It's fairly certain at this point that Estrada is our guy for next year. The Braves won't re-sign Lopez, so the starting job is Estrada's to lose.

And that is sad. As great a kid as Estrada may be, I'm going to miss Javy.

[Iceberg]

The trade the Braves should have made was Estrada for Ponson, which was offered to them by the O's but rejected. Now its gonna come back to bite them in the ass twice over cause not only did they not get sidney but now the giants have a much better playoff rotation.

[DeToxRox]

I dunno, if the Braves can finish with the best record in the NL, they'll take on the Astros in the first round, and that's a series they should win, especially with Oswalt out.

Then the Giants and Phillies go at it, in a series I think the Giants would win.

If the Braves and Giants play in the NLCS, you have to wonder how Ponson will do, how Williams will do, How Foppert will do, How Reuter will do. Reuter isn't doing too hot lately and the other three are going to be new to the playoffs. The only constant is Schmidt.

I think Maddux will come around, and Ortiz has been in this situation before, should be good. Reynolds and Ramierez, I dunno about, and Hampton, who knows. I think there are going to be questions with whoever get's to the playoffs because of the lack of playoff experience on these teams rotations.

[larrymcg421]

Jon,

I understand that his record is pretty weak. However, it is not a good indicator of how well he has pitched in the postseason. It's the Braves offense that has been pathetic in the postseason and not their pitching.