FOOL 2084 Regular Season

[Alan T]

10/12:


Baltimore 6, Halifax 3

Baltimore clinches a playoff spot!!



Hammersmith 11, Toronto 1

Ann Arbor has finished their regular season. Toronto has 1 game left vs Hammersmith. Toronto has to win to force a tie and a 1-game playoff with Ann Arbor to decide homefield advantage in the RLCS. If Hammersmith wins, Ann Arbor clinches homefield advantage

[Alan T]

Rebels Whitewashed by Peña
Thursday, October 12th, 2084: "He's got a bunch of different arm angles and his ball was really moving," said the Chico manager after watching Raúl Peña of the Hartford Harpooners humiliate his club 5-0 in a fine 3-hit shutout.

"If I make good pitches, I'm going to get some outs," Peña said after he befuddled the Rebels. "I was making good pitches the entire game."

He whiffed 9 and walked 1 in the complete game effort.

In the current season in 32 starts, Raúl Peña has a record of 8-16 with 153 strikeouts in 193.2 innings and a 5.39 ERA.

[TeachEnEspanol]

At least Baltimore is a real person now!

[Alan T]

10/13:


Toronto 10, Hammersmith 9


Toronto wins and ties Ann Arbor to finished the scheduled regular season tied at 97-65!

Toronto led the regular season series with Ann Arbor 14-13, so will host the one game playoff between the two that will decide homefield advantage in the RLCS

[Alan T]

10/14:


Ann Arbor 8, Toronto 6


Ann Arbor clinches homefield advantage in the RLCS!

[Chief Rum]

Congrats to the playoff squads! Teach, JT, Johnny, and WTH I am drawing a complete blank on Ann Arbor right now, sorry AA.

[Alan T]

Final 2084 Standings:

Continental League Standings

Team W L PCT GB Pyt.Rec Diff Home Away XInn 1Run M# Streak Last10 Napa Valley Winemakers 92 70 .568 - 95-67 -3 47-34 45-36 10-8 23-27 Clinched W1 5-5 Baltimore Charm 90 72 .556 2.0 86-76 4 44-37 46-35 11-5 27-23 W2 6-4 Halifax Winter Wolves 87 75 .537 5.0 83-79 4 47-34 40-41 7-10 34-21 L2 3-7 Boston Settlers 79 83 .488 13.0 82-80 -3 41-40 38-43 8-8 22-26 L2 5-5 Apex Assassins 76 86 .469 16.0 76-86 0 35-46 41-40 9-14 26-25 W2 7-3 Georgia Devils 75 87 .463 17.0 74-88 1 36-45 39-42 12-7 20-24 L2 5-5 Tokyo Cyclones 68 94 .420 24.0 70-92 -2 36-45 32-49 5-10 21-27 W2 4-6

Republic League Standings

Team W L PCT GB Pyt.Rec Diff Home Away XInn 1Run M# Streak Last10 Ann Arbor Winged Lingerines 98 65 .601 - 90-73 8 45-36 53-29 12-8 35-19 Clinched W1 4-6 Toronto Marlboros 97 66 .595 1.0 95-68 2 46-36 51-30 13-5 32-18 L1 6-4 Hammersmith Hooligans 88 74 .543 9.5 93-69 -5 41-40 47-34 11-7 22-19 L1 7-3 Brunswick Barons 85 77 .525 12.5 88-74 -3 36-45 49-32 3-9 16-23 L1 4-6 Colorado Rancheros 78 84 .481 19.5 83-79 -5 43-38 35-46 8-14 22-27 W1 5-5 Hartford Harpooners 74 88 .457 23.5 75-87 -1 33-48 41-40 9-12 16-20 W4 7-3 Chico Rebels 48 114 .296 49.5 47-115 1 23-58 25-56 8-9 16-33 L4 1-9

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Congrats to the playoff squads! Teach, JT, Johnny, and WTH I am drawing a complete blank on Ann Arbor right now, sorry AA.

Mattcubs is Ann Arbor

[TeachEnEspanol]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Congrats to the playoff squads! Teach, JT, Johnny, and WTH I am drawing a complete blank on Ann Arbor right now, sorry AA.

Ann Arbor is mattcubs

[Chief Rum]

Yup, just looked him up. Congrats Matt!

[TeachEnEspanol]

YAY YAY YAY! Congrats to all my partners in crime. Good luck tomorrow!

[Alan T]

League Leaders AVG B. Cassidy - BRU .352 2 J. Vázquez TOR .337 3 K. Tarn NVY .327 4 R. Larson HAL .324 5 P. Hanson TOR .323	League Leaders HR R. Larson - HAL 45 2 M. Estrada HAM 42 3 L. Clark COL 40 3 K. Tarn NVY 40 5 D. Gonzáles NVY 39	League Leaders RBI M. García - ANN 141 2 M. Estrada HAM 134 3 I. Álvarez TOR 129 3 L. Clark COL 129 5 R. van Alpen HAR 123
League Leaders W T. Pérez - BOS 22 2 J. Álvarez ANN 19 2 Y. Kim BAL 19 4 A. Galilei BRU 18 5 2 tied with 17	League Leaders ERA J. Delgado - APX 2.38 2 J. Manuel BAL 2.39 3 T. Pérez BOS 2.48 4 N. Asai APX 2.80 5 J. Soriano HAL 2.97	League Leaders K Y. Nakano - NVY 223 2 A. Galilei BRU 216 3 E. Bedeschi ANN 208 4 J. Delgado APX 200 5 H. Rivera HAR 198

[Chief Rum]

It's official: I think I need to move out of my ballpark. It's holding me back. I think I should take an average of the factors of all of the ballparks in the RL, find the park that best matches that average and "build a new park" in Hammersmith.

Heck, the current one has been in use for 75 years now...

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It's official: I think I need to move out of my ballpark. It's holding me back. I think I should take an average of the factors of all of the ballparks in the RL, find the park that best matches that average and "build a new park" in Hammersmith.

Heck, the current one has been in use for 75 years now...

I can't give you the numbers for this year yet since I'm still running the database dump, but last year Hammersmith's ballpark was the definition of average as far as park factors go.

As far as averages go, from 2038 until now, the Park factor for your park has been: 1.01 PFr and 0.98 PFhr

So barely above average for number of runs and barely below average for number of home runs

[Alan T]

Best Bang for the Buck (Batters)
Name Team VORP Salary Score Paul Mulholland HAR 57.6183 100000 57.62

Best Bang for the Buck (Pitchers)
Name Team VORP Salary Score Yoshimatsu Nakano NVY 46.6342 100000 46.63

Worst Bang for the Buck (Batters)
Name Team VORP Salary Score Juan Cruz BAL -17.8029 100000 -17.80

Worst Bang for the Buck (Pitchers)
Name Team VORP Salary Score Adrián Aguilar CHI -54.8094 100000 -54.81

Home Run or Nothing Award
Name Team HR RC Score Manuel Estrada HAM 42 71.667716 0.5143

Selfish Pitcher Award
Name Team W L K BB IP Score Nelson Rodríguez GEO 12 13 152 120 195.0 14592.0000

Unluckiest Pitcher Award
Name Team W L K BB IP Score Juan León CHI 6 18 98 44 223.0 1792.72727327

Running on Empty Award
Name Team SB CS SB % Score Carlos Brito TOR 7 11 0.3889 5.60

Can't hit his weight Award
Name Team Weight Batting Avg. Score Desi McCabe APX 190 lbs 0.142 0.74882327

Should have stayed home Award (Batters)
Name Team Batting Avg. HR RBI VORP Steve Flynn CHI 0.181 23 59 -26.8818

Should have stayed home Award (Pitchers)
Name Team W L ERA VORP Adrián Aguilar CHI 2 6 11.44 -54.8094

Stone Statue Award
Name Team Total Chances Assists Put Outs Range Paul Mulholland HAR 406 232 167 4.0168

Cannon-Arm Award
Name Team SB attempts against Runners Thrown Out RTO% Score Bert Thirkettle BOS 92 39 0.4239 52.6

Early Checkout Award
Name Team W L ERA GS IP Score Miguel Herrera BOS 5 14 6.73 31 139.0 0.2230

Never met a pitch he didn't like award

Name Team Batting Avg. H BB Score Roy Larson HAL 0.324 210 28 182

[Alan T]

The ones without pictures are rookies most likely as there is no picture for them uploaded yet. (That happens during the night as it takes a few hours)

My two favorite awards I think are the unluckiest pitcher award and the Home Run or Nothing award.

Leon was actually one of the best pitchers in the RL this year. He ranked 2nd in the RL for ERA, yet lost 18 games. Ouch.

Our Home Run or nothing award winner actually wasn't too much of a surprise after Chief's all-star break mini-rant

[Alan T]

I also added an award later today after my first post. The Never met a pitch he didn't like award are for the better hitters that have absolutely no desire to lay off of a pitch. Imagine Ichiro Suzuki.

[Alan T]

These awards also brought to my attention Hartford rookie Paul Mulholland. He looks to have a good chance of winning the benny Myers award this year thanks to an all star season where he hit a .901 OPS. Hartford needs to find a new position for him though, he was pretty bad at Shortstop

[Alan T]

Ok, I have a new favorite nickname for a player!!

Yoshimatsu 'Turn The Lights Off' Nakano

That is great! And considering his rookie performance this year combined with his overall talent and age... I think Nakano will be "turning the lights out" in the CL for many years to come.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I can't give you the numbers for this year yet since I'm still running the database dump, but last year Hammersmith's ballpark was the definition of average as far as park factors go.

As far as averages go, from 2038 until now, the Park factor for your park has been: 1.01 PFr and 0.98 PFhr

So barely above average for number of runs and barely below average for number of home runs

Ah, but it's how the runs are scored that may seem to matter.

There has to be a reason for such a sharp difference in the negative between the home and away records. If the away record was worse, we could chalk it up to home field advantage, but when it's so sharply the opposite, that's a cause for curiosity. This is also now the third year in a row that there has been such a discrepancy.

[Alan T]

Woops, forgot to say the file is up! Got too busy looking through stats.

Playoffs run tomorrow night

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Ah, but it's how the runs are scored that may seem to matter.

There has to be a reason for such a sharp difference in the negative between the home and away records. If the away record was worse, we could chalk it up to home field advantage, but when it's so sharply the opposite, that's a cause for curiosity. This is also now the third year in a row that there has been such a discrepancy.

Oh sure, I could go into more detail regarding how I usually look at individual player splits to see who performed far better away vs home to see why. I was more commenting on how the park was pretty mid-field as far as runs scored. Which tells you it is possibly a combination of your pitchers and hitters not playing to potential there.

[Chief Rum]

Great work with the new awards, Alan. It's definitely interesting to check these out.

Yeah, not surprised to see Estrada got the Rob Deer award.

As for the best bang for buck award, I think some very good rookie or second year player will always win that one, as they have not gained the experience necessary to reach arbitration. I would be curious to see who represents the best bang among players in Year Three of their careers or older, or best among those who have signed free agent deals or extensions with their original teams.

Great addition to the season thread. Thanks!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Oh sure, I could go into more detail regarding how I usually look at individual player splits to see who performed far better away vs home to see why. I was more commenting on how the park was pretty mid-field as far as runs scored. Which tells you it is possibly a combination of your pitchers and hitters not playing to potential there.

Oh, I agree. I don't think there's any question they aren't playing to their potential there. I need to find out why. Thanks for the range factor numbers.

[spot]

From the looks of it Flynn and Aguiar weren't the only two that should have stayed home. Sheesh!

I didn't expect too much but...

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Great work with the new awards, Alan. It's definitely interesting to check these out.

Yeah, not surprised to see Estrada got the Rob Deer award.

As for the best bang for buck award, I think some very good rookie or second year player will always win that one, as they have not gained the experience necessary to reach arbitration. I would be curious to see who represents the best bang among players in Year Three of their careers or older, or best among those who have signed free agent deals or extensions with their original teams.

Great addition to the season thread. Thanks!

Maybe on the list of things to add would be the best bang for the buck for players that no longer are eligible to play for minimum salary. Arbitration eligible and older players. So that would be what 5 years or so? Should be easy enough to do once I get spare time again. The holiday weekend helped me do some fun stuff like this.

[hyde4us11]

Wouldn't that be year 3 for arbitration ? Some players will be eligible after 2 years but to be sure you would have to go year 3.

[hyde4us11]

Actually you could argue that after year 2 of career because anyone worthy of such an award will have reached arbitration after year 2 I think.

[hyde4us11]

Originally Posted by Alan T

These awards also brought to my attention Hartford rookie Paul Mulholland. He looks to have a good chance of winning the benny Myers award this year thanks to an all star season where he hit a .901 OPS. Hartford needs to find a new position for him though, he was pretty bad at Shortstop

Interesting because he only had 7 errors all season. So this award helped me realize that despite his ok FLD% he needs to be moved. I actually take the big numbers in his rookie year and difficult time in the field. I'll move hime to 3B next year I think.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hyde4us11

Interesting because he only had 7 errors all season. So this award helped me realize that despite his ok FLD% he needs to be moved. I actually take the big numbers in his rookie year and difficult time in the field. I'll move hime to 3B next year I think.

That was the main reason I came up with this award. Alot of people look at defense from the perspective of did they field the ball when it came to them? Did they make an error on the throw? If both of those went ok, then people are fine with them.

There is more to defense at the important defensive positions especially (SS, 2B, CF) than just that though.

We can look at other metrics as well to see that he wasn't a very good SS in the field:

Win Shares

Rank	Player	Team	Fielding at SS	Total Fielding	Batting	Total
1	Martín Báez	ANN	8.9	9.0	14.2	23.1
2	Dennis Ames	GEO	6.7	6.7	3.9	10.6
3	Carlos Zapata	BRU	6.3	6.3	11.2	17.5
4	Brendan Hollis	HAL	5.6	5.6	8.1	13.8
5	Chris Brady	TOR	5.5	5.5	9.2	14.7
6	Sjelle Visser	TOK	4.8	4.8	13.1	17.9
7	Dave Hudson	BOS	4.4	4.4	22.8	27.2
8	Manchu Er	BAL	4.3	4.3	13.8	18.1
9	Patrick Wilson	HAM	4.1	4.1	9.3	13.4
10	Steve Brock	NVY	3.3	3.9	16.9	20.8
11	Juan Ortíz	APX	2.8	2.9	7.0	9.9
12	Paul Mulholland	HAR	2.7	3.4	18.1	21.5

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hyde4us11

Wouldn't that be year 3 for arbitration ? Some players will be eligible after 2 years but to be sure you would have to go year 3.

Probably so. It was late when I was writing last night so my mind checked out early. For the life of me I couldn't remember the arbitration settings

[hyde4us11]

I look at range as well. I would have seen he was bad at some point but this made me see it for sure. I definately look at the fielding closely but this made it so I wouldn't miss it.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hyde4us11

I look at range as well. I would have seen he was bad at some point but this made me see it for sure. I definately look at the fielding closely but this made it so I wouldn't miss it.

I know we've had alot of discussions over the seasons about the importance of fielding, but the way I always built my team, I felt a stud fielding Shortstop that could hit near average (say OPS+ anywhere between 95+), but have great range, hands and arm in the field would be just as important to a team as adding a solid bat into the middle of the lineup.

Martin Baez is pretty much exactly what I mean. He had an OPS+ of 100 which is textbook definition of an average hitter, but he is great in the field. If we are to take anything from the Win Shares measurement, Baez was 29th in all of FOOL for total Win Shares, despite being just an average hitter.

Looking closer at Ann Arbor, comparing Baez to another hitter on the team, Ron Roberge who looks like he played 1B and DH from what I can tell, Roberge is a better hitter, having a solid year with a .286/22/108 and a solid OPS+ of 117. No Hall of Famer, but most teams would take another bat like that in their lineup. Despite being a better hitter, Baez ended up with more Win Shares despite only 3 HR and 67 RBI, solely because of being a solid glove at an important position.

When I look even more at Ann Arbor, they had another player fitting the same mold with Jose Ramirez, whom found time at both 2B and 3B this season. Barely average bat, but great glove and great impact on the team. I think I personally would have played Ramirez more at 2B instead of more at 3B as he did, but I think the way Ann Arbor built their infield is pretty close to what I usually would do too.

What did it end up doing for Ann arbor? Only a 98-65 record which was the best in all of FOOL.


Now I'm not saying a super glove SS that hits .180 is good to have, there obviously is some grey area to what point having a bat is necessary, but I think most of the time I feel many GMs in the league err to the side of more hitting and less fielding than they should at least at those positions.

Of course, perhaps my favorite FOOL player of all time (that wasn't on one of my teams) is the great Dave long. He is no hall of famer, but he was exactly what any team would need to succeed.

[Alan T]

One small addendum to my last post just so no one gets messed up:


I haven't really played much OOTP since OOTP9. In OOTP11, my testing has shown that RF and LF fielding capabilities is perhaps a bit more important than they were in the past. In OOTP9, you needed a good fielding CF but could ignore the corner positions. It seems to me that having a solid fielding outfield all the way across has more impact than it used to. To what extent, I am not fully sure though. I would obviously take a poor fielding LF that can hit .350/40/150 though.

[hyde4us11]

What a great read Alan. Thanks for sharing.

[Alan T]

Best Bang for the Buck (Veteran Batters)

	Name	Team	VORP	Salary	Score
	José Ramírez	ANN	43.4757	632000	6.88

Best Bang for the Buck (Veteran Pitchers)

	Name	Team	VORP	Salary	Score
	Javier Villa	BAL	25.2415	100000	25.24

[Johnny93g]

Wow, i expected us to be better then the bottom feeder of the last 3 years, but within a game of the best record in the league is a surprise.

I doubt we can win a round in the playoffs, but we'll sure try our best. Good luck to all the playoff teams, and thanks Alan for running the season and all the extra goodies!!

[Tasan]

Great write-up last night Alan. The new awards were great. As for fielding, I've been trying to stress it more in Colorado (and Spring in fool-x) the last couple of decades, after having a real good hitting and pitching team stumble badly, mainly because of the fielding miscues. Its now one of the first things I look at when I have a bad season, and its usually a factor in the outcome.

[Tasan]

Also, I' think my SS combo would be one of the tops in the league, if you combined both Fell and Asselin.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tasan

Also, I' think my SS combo would be one of the tops in the league, if you combined both Fell and Asselin.

The main thing keeping that duo from being one of the top pairs is the number of errors they commit. Mostly the problem is Fell, Asselin looks like he could at least be a solid SS (probably not spectacular).

My guess is you have Fell in there for a bit more pop, where in my opinion, I would have just stuck with Asselin and a slightly worse bat since Fell really didn't give you that much more offensively anyways.


I'm not overly familiar with every SS that is out there in free agency or available, but if nothing better than Asselin was available, I would have just stuck with him.

[Tasan]

Well, the errors do knock Fell some, I guess. However, he's got a better arm and more double play ability than Asselin. Still, both should be good fielders anyway, from their ratings.

[Chief Rum]

I have stressed defense a lot more in that same time frame, Tasan.

Here's what I find that makes it hard to figure how to handle defense.

Consider Baez, the guy at the top of the list (8.9 FWS), and my guy Wilson, near the bottom (4.1 FWS). Baez is an excellent SS, of course, overall rating at 117. All four infield ratings are blue, with three triple digits. Wilson is no slouch, with an 81 overall rating, two blue ratings and two green ratings for the infield ratings. On ratings, Wilson is a solid SS and Baez is very clearly the better SS.

But then you look at the actual performance on the field. Baez had 9 errors to Wilson's 10--just one error, one random blip and they have the same numbers. Baez's range factor 4.55 to Wilson's at 4.39. Not much of a difference there. To further illustrate the range difference (or lack thereof), Baez had 739 total chances to Wilson's 715. Baez also played in one more game (the end of the season tiebreaker), BTW. The one spot Baez is significantly ahead of Wilson, IMO, is double plays (159 to 135), but that's a very team dependent stat, which also takes into account the pitcher's ground ball rate, how often players end up on first with less than two outs (opponents OBP related) and the quality of the 2B.

So despite a performance that is clearly less than Baez but also clearly not by much, Wilson is a whole 4.8 FWS behind Baez? More than double what Wilson himself got?

THat doesn't make much sense to me, and it makes it much harder to evaluate a defensive performance and how much impact it it having.

[Alan T]

Take the Money and Run Award (Batters)

	Name	Team	Contract	Batting Avg.	HR	RBI	Score
	Carl Cudmore	APX	11015000	0.251	13	50	38.6469

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I have stressed defense a lot more in that same time frame, Tasan.

Here's what I find that makes it hard to figure how to handle defense.

Consider Baez, the guy at the top of the list (8.9 FWS), and my guy Wilson, near the bottom (4.1 FWS). Baez is an excellent SS, of course, overall rating at 117. All four infield ratings are blue, with three triple digits. Wilson is no slouch, with an 81 overall rating, two blue ratings and two green ratings for the infield ratings. On ratings, Wilson is a solid SS and Baez is very clearly the better SS.

But then you look at the actual performance on the field. Baez had 9 errors to Wilson's 10--just one error, one random blip and they have the same numbers. Baez's range factor 4.55 to Wilson's at 4.39. Not much of a difference there. To further illustrate the range difference (or lack thereof), Baez had 739 total chances to Wilson's 715. Baez also played in one more game (the end of the season tiebreaker), BTW. The one spot Baez is significantly ahead of Wilson, IMO, is double plays (159 to 135), but that's a very team dependent stat, which also takes into account the pitcher's ground ball rate, how often players end up on first with less than two outs (opponents OBP related) and the quality of the 2B.

So despite a performance that is clearly less than Baez but also clearly not by much, Wilson is a whole 4.8 FWS behind Baez? More than double what Wilson himself got?

THat doesn't make much sense to me, and it makes it much harder to evaluate a defensive performance and how much impact it it having.

I think you have to be careful using Win Shares to compare player abilities. It is not a complete measurement from that angle. Win Shares has to take into consideration the success of the team and break out the wins in "shares". The fielding difference between Wilson and Baez according to Win shares is the difference of 1 1/2 wins roughly if you are to believe Win Shares.

That doesn't seem that much, but my point is using Colorado as an example, choosing whom to play is an exercise of deciding what is more beneficial to the team. In Tasan's case he chose to primarily play Fell because of his bat. In the end however, Fell's bat only provided roughly 1 win more than Asselin. My point was that if Asselin had been the primary ss instead for Colorado, they would have possibly been a bit better.

As far as actual comparisons of SS, Baez to Wilson:

In roughly the same number of innings played, Baez had 25 more outs than Wilson did. That is not counting the double plays that you somewhat discounted earlier. Yes, that is a team dependent stat, but it still is important. I agree that a shortstop alone can't turn double plays, but it is important to have a SS that can turn them when the chance arises. So statistically, Baez I would feel would have been at least 2 wins better than having Wilson there from a fielding standpoint and possibly even more depending on the style of pitching and the quality of the 2B and 1B in the infield.

Now how do you convert the ratings that OOTP gives you into performance? I don't find that you can do that often, but the key here is looking at Baez, he has a near perfect SS rating meaning he has as much experience as he needs at SS. His Range, Errors and Arm are also very good and SS quality. Baez' only rating that would be a concern to me is his DP and even that is still passable for a stud SS I feel.

With Wilson, his SS rating is passable but not nearly perfect like Baez is. Plus Wilson's Error rating is 93 which is also solid. I would expect him to not make too many mistakes in the field, but I actually would have assumed Baez would have made less errors than he did honestly. Wilson's performance seems about right as far as errors go. Wilson's range is passable, but his DP and Arm are less than I would personally like at SS. Overall that makes Wilson probably a solid but not spectacular Shortstop. With a great bat, I'd take Wilson at SS. Wilson's bat isn't really good enough though for me to really not want to look at other options there.



So not trying to be mean here, just trying to explain what I look for in a SS. There really aren't many SS out there that I like as good as Baez. I like Brady from Toronto, but not sure why his errors are so high. I like Napa Valley's youngster Randy Terry if he can manage to hit well enough to make the big leagues that is. In a pinch I would take Halifax's Edguardo Lucrerios as well, but he doesn't seem to be able to hit a lick either right now.

[Alan T]

Take the Money and Run Award (Pitchers)

	Name	Team	Contract	Wins	Losses	ERA	Score
	José Álvarez	ANN	9000000	19	9	4.79	38.9931

[Alan T]

So the Take the money and Run awards are for the batter and pitcher that signed new contracts or contract extensions in the offseason and suddenly had the biggest drop off in performance this season.

Apex's Carl Cudmore had an All star seasonin 2083, hitting .285/16/67 but had an impressive OBP of .404 which was 8th best in the league. In the offseason he signed a 4 year contract extension with Apex that would carry him through his 32nd birthday for $52 million. He rewarded the Apex fans with an abysmal .251/13/30 and a Slugging pct of .373. He still ranked in the top 10 for walks and kept a somewhat-decent OBP this year, but definitely not worth the 11mil+ that he was paid!

The pitcher award seems a little less obvious. Why would a 19-9 pitcher get this award? Obviously 19 wins is worth the 9 million that Jose Alvarez was paid right? Despite leading Ann Arbor in wins this season, Alvarez was the third best pitcher on the staff. The biggest problem with Alvarez was his ERA shot up over a run and a half per game from last year. Despite a better record this season, he was far better the year before. Looking over the season that Alvarez had, he appears to simply be the example of an overworked arm. he started off the season continuing from where he left off, but as the season continued, his performances got worse and worse. The exception coming at times when the team had enough off days to get him some rest. So maybe for him the team felt they had paid for slave labor and worked him to death.

The funny thing is, knowing the way the AI handles the Prado award, I would not be shocked to see him as one of the top 3 candidates for the award despite a subpar season.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think you have to be careful using Win Shares to compare player abilities. It is not a complete measurement from that angle. Win Shares has to take into consideration the success of the team and break out the wins in "shares". The fielding difference between Wilson and Baez according to Win shares is the difference of 1 1/2 wins roughly if you are to believe Win Shares.

Actually, as I know Win Shares that does seem like a lot. And that's what I was saying. The actual stats don't seem to bear out that much of a difference. I find it unlikely that one more error and 25 less outs (1 extra out every six games, in other words) turns into a whole 1.5 more team wins. My understanding is that, with respect to the topic of Win Shares, Fielding Win Shares and their value and accuracy are much debated, where as Hitting and Pitching win shares have a more direct correlation from production to team results.

That doesn't seem that much, but my point is using Colorado as an example, choosing whom to play is an exercise of deciding what is more beneficial to the team. In Tasan's case he chose to primarily play Fell because of his bat. In the end however, Fell's bat only provided roughly 1 win more than Asselin. My point was that if Asselin had been the primary ss instead for Colorado, they would have possibly been a bit better.

This comes down to how one views FWS's I suppose. If you accept their accuracy as equal to OWS or PWS, then Fell wasn't a great choice. If, however, you have doubts as to the value of FWS, than it would questionable for you to base your personnel decision on a comparison that relies on FWS so much.

As far as actual comparisons of SS, Baez to Wilson:

In roughly the same number of innings played, Baez had 25 more outs than Wilson did. That is not counting the double plays that you somewhat discounted earlier. Yes, that is a team dependent stat, but it still is important. I agree that a shortstop alone can't turn double plays, but it is important to have a SS that can turn them when the chance arises. So statistically, Baez I would feel would have been at least 2 wins better than having Wilson there from a fielding standpoint and possibly even more depending on the style of pitching and the quality of the 2B and 1B in the infield.

Now how do you convert the ratings that OOTP gives you into performance? I don't find that you can do that often, but the key here is looking at Baez, he has a near perfect SS rating meaning he has as much experience as he needs at SS. His Range, Errors and Arm are also very good and SS quality. Baez' only rating that would be a concern to me is his DP and even that is still passable for a stud SS I feel.

With Wilson, his SS rating is passable but not nearly perfect like Baez is. Plus Wilson's Error rating is 93 which is also solid. I would expect him to not make too many mistakes in the field, but I actually would have assumed Baez would have made less errors than he did honestly. Wilson's performance seems about right as far as errors go. Wilson's range is passable, but his DP and Arm are less than I would personally like at SS. Overall that makes Wilson probably a solid but not spectacular Shortstop. With a great bat, I'd take Wilson at SS. Wilson's bat isn't really good enough though for me to really not want to look at other options there.

I actually don't doubt (and even said so in my previous post) that Baez is a much better defensive player than Wilson. Baez is an excellent defender, and I described Wilson as solid at best. The FWS numbers you posted fits about the difference I would expect to see--that Baez is a significantly better defender than Wilson (I was more surprised that Wilson was so far down the rankings as a whole; I would have guessed his ratings were more toward the middle, but having not looked at the rest of the league's starting SSs in any way, it's possible the entire league has taken defense at SS as seriously as Tasan, mattcubs or I have and all have defenders at SS equal to or better than Wilson, who is hardly a world beater at the position).

No, what surprises me is that the actual fielding stats at their core--errors, chances, range factor, etc. are not too signficantly different between Wilson and Baez, and yet the FWS differ so much. It makes me think the FWS formula must take into account double plays--the only significantly different stat --very highly if the difference in FWS is so large while most of the underlying stats are rather closer.

So not trying to be mean here, just trying to explain what I look for in a SS. There really aren't many SS out there that I like as good as Baez. I like Brady from Toronto, but not sure why his errors are so high. I like Napa Valley's youngster Randy Terry if he can manage to hit well enough to make the big leagues that is. In a pinch I would take Halifax's Edguardo Lucrerios as well, but he doesn't seem to be able to hit a lick either right now.

I'm not trying to argue you're wrong, I just don't think we're talking about the same thing here. I'm not saying Baez isn't a better defender, nor am I arguing that it is wrong to go with an offensively neutral SS with great defensive ability. I think what it comes down to is that, in comparison to what the base stats tell me and what FWS tells me, I have strong doubts that FWS is the best defensive metric on which to base a comparative argument about the relative defensive values of two different players.

[Alan T]

One other comment about measuring fielding capabilities. For those in FOOL-X, OOTP11 does have other fielding stats that can help you determine how good of a fielder your player is. In OOTP 11, there are stats Zone Rating and EFF which are two attempts to measure the defensive capabilities of your player. I believe Zone Rating is OOTP's attempt to have a measurement similar to UZR. For EFF, a score of 1 is average, higher than 1 is better, lower than 1 is below average. Both Zone Rating and EFF are two similar measurements for the same goal though.

It does not appear that either is included in the SQL dumps, so not stored anywhere in the statslab database. So only easy place to find it is either in-game or in the web-reports for a player.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm not trying to argue you're wrong, I just don't think we're talking about the same thing here. I'm not saying Baez isn't a better defender, nor am I arguing that it is wrong to go with an offensively neutral SS with great defensive ability. I think what it comes down to is that, in comparison to what the base stats tell me and what FWS tells me, I have strong doubts that FWS is the best defensive metric on which to base a comparative argument about the relative defensive values of two different players.

I have mathematically determined that something is not being computed quite right in PWS. So there might be an issue with FWS not being computed correctly either. At a quick glance though, the order of players seemed pretty similar to what I would have done (with a few minor changes). Perhaps the amount of difference from the top of the list to #3,4,5 is exaggerated, but that is difficult to tell from just glancing at it.

I do know that Catcher FWS seem pretty wonky from what I have been able to tell in the past.

[Chief Rum]

BTW, getting back to another topic I brought up, the odd way my team plays so poorly at home and so well on the road, strangely enough, almost across the board, my hitters played better at home than on the road. The only ones who didn't play better at home than away were essentially as good wherever they played (little significant OPS difference between their Home and Away performances). So my tactic of finding hitters that match my park seems to be working.

That only makes the results even more confusing. Looking at my pitching, I found that four of my five starters, one of my key setup relievers and my closer were all significantly at worse home than away. My closer is particular stands out--he had a sub-2.00 ERA on the road, and was over 5.00 at home. And everyone knows, there are few things that can lead to losses like a misfiring closer.

Considering that most of my pen and all of my hitters performed to expectations in their home/away splits, it's amazing that the performance of those six pitchers not only overcame my natural home field advantage but even reversed the trend further beyond that.

I haven't compared these pitchers side by side just yet to pin point the issue, but it will be interesting to see what I find when I do.