FOOL 2084 Regular Season

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I have mathematically determined that something is not being computed quite right in PWS. So there might be an issue with FWS not being computed correctly either. At a quick glance though, the order of players seemed pretty similar to what I would have done (with a few minor changes). Perhaps the amount of difference from the top of the list to #3,4,5 is exaggerated, but that is difficult to tell from just glancing at it.

I do know that Catcher FWS seem pretty wonky from what I have been able to tell in the past.

Yeah, I could see that (defensive players still being ranked in the proper order). I didn't see anything amiss from who was considered better than others, so if there's a discrepancy it seems to be handled in equal measure with all players. It just seemed weird that the results of that stat seemed out of whack my perception of the relative impact of the underlying stats.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

BTW, getting back to another topic I brought up, the odd way my team plays so poorly at home and so well on the road, strangely enough, almost across the board, my hitters played better at home than on the road. The only ones who didn't play better at home than away were essentially as good wherever they played (little significant OPS difference between their Home and Away performances). So my tactic of finding hitters that match my park seems to be working.

That only makes the results even more confusing. Looking at my pitching, I found that four of my five starters, one of my key setup relievers and my closer were all significantly at worse home than away. My closer is particular stands out--he had a sub-2.00 ERA on the road, and was over 5.00 at home. And everyone knows, there are few things that can lead to losses like a misfiring closer.

Considering that most of my pen and all of my hitters performed to expectations in their home/away splits, it's amazing that the performance of those six pitchers not only overcame my natural home field advantage but even reversed the trend further beyond that.

I haven't compared these pitchers side by side just yet to pin point the issue, but it will be interesting to see what I find when I do.

Maybe it wasn't as much your pitchers having a tougher time in your park but instead your park set up in a way where the average hitter in the league performed better there. So not only were your hitters having an advantage there, but other teams having even more of an advantage.

I haven't looked into it further, so just guessing here based on what you said.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Maybe it wasn't as much your pitchers having a tougher time in your park but instead your park set up in a way where the average hitter in the league performed better there. So not only were your hitters having an advantage there, but other teams having even more of an advantage.

I haven't looked into it further, so just guessing here based on what you said.

Wouldn't that have generally affected my pitchers across the board, though? If I saw a general pattern across most of my pitchers, I would say you have a solid hypotheses there, but it was very specific pitchers that had issues and large ones.

I was just looking closely at one of them, Barry Orton, to determine if I wanted to offer him an extension. He was the setup reliever with the bad home/away split. It was...weird. At home, his K/9 rate was up and his HR/9 rate was down in comparison to on the road. He walked a little more, but his K:BB ratio was better at home than away. The key difference was he allowed a lot more hits at home (H/9 significantly higher at home). On the road, it was almost strange how poorly his K/9 rate was, and he allowed twice the homers on the road as he did at home--while allowing 15 less hits--in about the same number of innings. Despite the lower K rate and higher HR rate, he was sop good at not allowing hits on the road that his road ERA was three runs south of his home ERA. Just...weird.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Wouldn't that have generally affected my pitchers across the board, though? If I saw a general pattern across most of my pitchers, I would say you have a solid hypotheses there, but it was very specific pitchers that had issues and large ones.

I was just looking closely at one of them, Barry Orton, to determine if I wanted to offer him an extension. He was the setup reliever with the bad home/away split. It was...weird. At home, his K/9 rate was up and his HR/9 rate was down in comparison to on the road. He walked a little more, but his K:BB ratio was better at home than away. The key difference was he allowed a lot more hits at home (H/9 significantly higher at home). On the road, it was almost strange how poorly his K/9 rate was, and he allowed twice the homers on the road as he did at home--while allowing 15 less hits--in about the same number of innings. Despite the lower K rate and higher HR rate, he was sop good at not allowing hits on the road that his road ERA was three runs south of his home ERA. Just...weird.

Is this something you have seen every year or just this season? Looking at park factors, your park had an odd year this year:


2084 Front Office Offseason League Park Factors

Ballpark	Team	PFr	PFhr
Ballpark of Hammersmith	Hammersmith Hooligans	1.07	1.02

3% more runs than the 2nd highest park, but way down the list for Home Runs.

This is also 6% higher than your park's average.

So one of two things happened this season for you: Either you had an odd statistical season in which I'm not sure how much you'll gain from pouring over stats. Or the change in league talent is catching up to your park and the odd dimensions of your stadium is allowing teams to have a whole lot more extra base hits (2bs and 3bs).

Check to see if your pitchers that struggled at home had problems giving up extra base hits that wern't home runs.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Is this something you have seen every year or just this season? Looking at park factors, your park had an odd year this year:


2084 Front Office Offseason League Park Factors

3% more runs than the 2nd highest park, but way down the list for Home Runs.

This is also 6% higher than your park's average.

So one of two things happened this season for you: Either you had an odd statistical season in which I'm not sure how much you'll gain from pouring over stats. Or the change in league talent is catching up to your park and the odd dimensions of your stadium is allowing teams to have a whole lot more extra base hits (2bs and 3bs).

Check to see if your pitchers that struggled at home had problems giving up extra base hits that wern't home runs.

Yeah, that's one of the things I will be looking at when I can (probably tomorrow). I'm going to try to determine why these pitchers had issues.

I think that's my problem, though, with the park based theoriues you're submitting--they don't account for the fact that some of my pitchers performed to expected form (better at home than away), while others were just horribly the opposite. If the park factors alone or an unusual statistical season in the park alone is the reason for the weird results, then I should see a general trend among most of my pitchers and hitters. Instead, I have a schism, where some have clearly pitched signficantly worse at home, and not in a way that is suggestive of bad luck, but wide divergences of stats that hint at a real underlying issue.

I'm not rejecting park-based theories out of hand, but the evidence suggests this is a player issue in some way (or how those specific players fit to the park), not a park as a whole issue.

[hyde4us11]

I opened this thread this morning after heading off the computer early yesterday and what I found is great knowledge. From where I started reading this morning, if you didn't learn something you just weren't trying. Very fun time reading this.