FOFC GroupThink 2022: We take over the NY Football Giants

[QuikSand]

Okay, this is a board full of would-be GMs and scouts and cap managers... let's put our heads together and talk through what we'd do if we had our puppet candidate win out to become the new Giants GM.

We are, I believe, blessed with two apparently rather early first round draft picks... so that is enough to feel like this is an appropriate vertex to feel like we're plotting the course for the franchise and the roster.

I will post some useful links, starting with this one:

New York Giants 2021 Salary Cap Table | Spotrac

I have access to the PFF player-by-player grades, and can either post a screenshot or something equivalent to help make that info useful to us, as well.

[QuikSand]

For the moment, let's focus on player cuts/trades, free agent pursuits, and related roster moves. And we will assume that the word out in the real world -- that the current Head Coach and QB1 will return intact for opening day next year. Doesn't preclude us from doing something at the QB position, but let's try to pre-emptively wipe out stuff like "hire this guy as coach who runs this totally new system and then we need new players to fit it."

[QuikSand]

Okay, so as a ground rule, I'm going to rely on this source for prospective contract values:

2022 NFL Free Agent Rankings: Top 75 players expected to enter free agency | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

As we know there are multiple ways of pursuing a free agent -- hard-charging early offer designed to lock the guy up quickly, and the read-the-room move to typically watch a group of players, see how the market settles, and make a move once you have an equilibrium.

Let's say that:

AGGRESSIVE - we'll almost surely get the player we seek, but we will have to pay 20% more than the $/yr indicated in the source above

COMPETITIVE - we should have roughly a 50/50 chance to get the player we want, at the $/yr indicated

TACTICAL - we will bide our time, and try to get a bargain, at 20% less than the $/yr indicated and on a shorter contract, 2yrs at most


So, for example, if we decide that what the team needs is a receiver, we can say we want to go after Allen Robinson... but the amount we plug in as a cap hit would vary materially along with the likelihood of landing him on our roster.

[QuikSand]

Projected draft order (and generally cool site): Tankathon | 2022 NFL Draft Order

[SirFozzie]

First quick thoughts: I like what the mock draft is offering up, in 2 OL. (they need it, both for the running game and to keep Jones upright)

I'd like to get rid of Golladay if possible (Good luck on that, 31 catches for 440 yards, and it's not like injuries have held him back too much, he's started 11 games so far this year)

If we can find a trading partner post June 1:

2022 Dead Cap: $3,400,000
2023 Dead Cap: $10,200,000
2022 Cap Savings: $17,750,000

Possible replacement: Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson

They definitely need a #1 receiver, and I don't think Golladay NOR Sterling Shepard are close to it.

[QuikSand]

I feel like the combination of Shepard and Kadarius Toney should be enough talent to build around, for the short term. I doubt there's a taker for Golladay, as you intimate, so I suppose he's a HOLD and hope he returns to form as a solid contested-catch deep threat to complement those two.

Agreed that OL is a continuing priority, and sinking another early draft pick there makes sense to me. Their second pick could be for one of the apparently stellar interior OL prospects (or I suppose a tackle who would feel comfortable playing the right side)...and that could free up the earlier pick for an edge or whatever they judge as BPA (maybe that safety).

[Butter]

Isn't the real question whether or not Barkley is being held back by the offensive line, or if he's actually already showing signs of decline? That's what I'd be really worried about for them, and I'm not sure that question gets answered until you actually address the O-Line and perhaps scheme better for him overall. But he could just be in Operation Shutdown knowing that this season is basically a waste at this point.

[sabotai]

Adrian Peterson ruined the expectations for coming back from an ACL injury. It's still a 2 year injury for most players, 1 to get to 80%, another to get back to 100%. I think Barkley's biggest issue is that along with the ACL that had him out most of last year (Week 2) and missing 4 weeks this year with an ankle injury, he just hasn't played much football over the last 2 years. He's dancing way too much behind the line, always looking to turn every run into a homerun. He's always done that to an extent, but he's done it far more this year. He needs the reps to just get his field vision back and to build up his patience.

As for the draft picks, at least one needs to be used on an OL. Considering this draft is not a good QB class and the Giants need a QB, they should try to trade down with one of their picks and pick up at least a 2023 1st. And then take BPA with that mid-round pick.

If they can't find a trade partner and have 2 top 10 picks, then spend on both on OL or OL and EDGE. Azeez Ojulari is developing nicely, but Carter and Ximenes are not. Get a second EDGE to compliment Ojulari and with Leonard Williams inside, then Giants might get a really good pass rush going again.

[sabotai]

Possible Cuts/Trades/Contract Restructures to free up cap space

Leonard Williams

Having said what I just did about the Pass Rush, it's hard to see how the Giants can keep Leonard Williams on a team if we can't restructure his deal. He can't be cut. Cutting him pre 6/1 will add more dead cap and cost $8m more, and cutting him post 6/1 saves exactly $0. But, he can be traded. A pre-6/1 trade frees up $10m and post-6/1 frees up $19m.

Williams is a great player, but he's getting elite pass rusher money. He either needs to get traded and get a new deal freeing up some cap space


James Bradbury

He's a great corner. He's aggressive and gets it wrong sometimes. I also think he gets blamed a lot for big plays when he was supposed to get help over the top and didn't get it. Still, cutting or trading him will free up $12m-$13m. That's money the Giants can use on an OL in free agency and he's going into the last year of his contract. I'd prefer to extend him and bring his cap hit down significantly for 2022. Otherwise might as well cut or trade him. Keeping him for 1 more year only to leave in FA next year doesn't help us long term.

Kyle Rudolph

He's shot. Cutting/Trading him frees up $5 million.

Logan Ryan

I like his leadership, but his on field performance dropped a lot this year. But cutting him saves just $750k. He could be traded, freeing up $9.25m

Blake Martinez

He's going into the final year and will count $14m against the cap. Cutting or trading him frees up $8.5m. I want him on the team. He's by far the best Giants LB (at least was in 2020) and just entering his prime (unless the ACL injury ruined him). Extend him and bring next year's cap hit way down. But just like with Bradbury, no point keeping him for just 1 more year if a restructure can't be done.

Saquon Barkley

Releasing him save nothing. Trading him frees up $7.2m.

Kenny Golladay

As Fozzie said, finding a trade partner Post 6/1 would be ideal. Not sure what I said about him last year when the Giants signed him, but I do not like what I see. It's not just the results, he looks like a terrible route runner. Still, the Giants could cut him Post 6/1. It would save $7.75m on the cap and throw $10.2m onto the 2023 dead cap. But they can save cap space by cutting their losses with him.

And that's basically it. Unless I missed one, those are the big ticket items for freeing up cap space.

[sabotai]

Well, there's also Sterling Shepard. Cutting/Trading post 6/1 saves $8.5m on the cap (before it's $4.5m) but he's clearly the Giants best receiver, and that's including Golladay. If we want to go full Empty Cupboard with this, then yeah I guess move from him, otherwise I say keep him.

[QuikSand]

Okay, I am sold on Bradberry (too inconsistent and expensive), Martinez (same), and Rudolph (dust) being on the cut-when-it's-wisest list, to free up cap space, even at some cost in space next year in Bradberry's case especially.

[QuikSand]

Evan Engram... continued to be physically tantalizing, but I presume we won't put up any resistance to him walking away. If Rudolph is also gone, that makes the TE position (on a weak-line team as is0 another weakness. Seems like that would be a position for a reasonable free agent and then a mid-tier draft pick, right?

Like... Anthony Firkser, or Ricky Seals-Jones... that's the level I'm thinking here for the veteran. Spend maybe 2m at the TE1 position.

[RainMaker]

I think with picks, you take the best available. This is a team that is years away from competing and has so many bad contracts they need to wait out.

I would hang on to Barkley because I think his trade value is really low at this point. Maybe a guy you move during next season when a team loses their top back. Most of the other names are untradeable.

Didn't realize how bad the Giants situation is. Thought the Bears were in a tough spot but at least they have cap space and some young players who are good.

[bhlloy]

I liked the idea of Schultz at TE when I was taking a look at this last night. In general I think with a team that is a few years away we should be prioritizing young FA who could still have room to significantly outperform their deals.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I liked the idea of Schultz at TE when I was taking a look at this last night. In general I think with a team that is a few years away we should be prioritizing young FA who could still have room to significantly outperform their deals.

If they don't like any QB in the draft, someone like Tyler Huntley would be interesting. Only 23 years old with some upside. Worst case scenario is he becomes a slightly overpaid backup.

[QuikSand]

Huntley will be an Exclusive Rights FA next offseason, and it's hard to imagine the Ravens letting him get away, as he's as good a fit as they could possibly find to back up Lamar. I don't know what circumstances would have to be involved for him to depart, but I think it's safe that he will be QB2 in Baltimore next year on materially better terms than his current deal.

[albionmoonlight]

I know we are sticking with QB1 here in part to keep things manageable. But I think that it actually makes sense considering all the other holes to fill.

I've seen a couple of people say that out of the universe of could-be-available QBs this offseason (Trubisky, Jones, Winston, Dalton, etc.), Jones is probably the best option. If the Giants decide to go in another direction, there will be interest in Jones from several teams.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Saquon Barkley

Releasing him save nothing. Trading him frees up $7.2m.

I'd put out some feelers and hope that one GM/Owner is tantalized by making a splash by trading for the big name.

[QuikSand]

Do we take a 4th round pick, conditional to a 3rd with performance, from someone for Barkley? Or are we holding firm that we want a difference-maker draft pick, like a 2nd or better?

[jbergey22]

I think we need to decide on what type of team we want. The Giants have no identity. Are they a running team? No. Are they are passing team? No. Do they get to the QB? No

If we are going to rebuild this team lets find something to be good at. I think the strength of this team could be a high powered run attack if we can build the defense up to make stops. I dont see Jones as the type that can win a bunch of shootouts ever. Jones as a runner with Barkley could be a threat however.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Do we take a 4th round pick, conditional to a 3rd with performance, from someone for Barkley? Or are we holding firm that we want a difference-maker draft pick, like a 2nd or better?

I'd take a 4th/3rd to get that cap space.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I'd take a 4th/3rd to get that cap space.

Why? And what would we get with that cap space?

Barkley could be a Kamara type in the "right offense". What would you be asking for Kamara?

That is what I am getting at? We would need to commit to a style. Engram would work in a passing offense(which is a poor idea with Jones as your QB) however in a run based offense you would probably move on from Engram. Dumb the offense down and Jones could be effective IMO.

The Giants are just getting players lately without a plan. We dont want to copy that strategy

[bhlloy]

When Devontae Booker looks as effective (or more effective) of a runner, then yeah trading him is on the table for cap space. And maybe you do need 2 years to fully get back from an ACL injury, but a lot of guys seem to do it in a year now, in college and in the pros. I think it’s a genuine concern that he’s not an elite back anymore.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

When Devontae Booker looks as effective (or more effective) of a runner, then yeah trading him is on the table for cap space. And maybe you do need 2 years to fully get back from an ACL injury, but a lot of guys seem to do it in a year now, in college and in the pros. I think it’s a genuine concern that he’s not an elite back anymore.

2018: 67.4% Zone
2019: 55.76% Zone
2020: 47.81% Zone

According to Pro Football Focus, 42% of Barkley's carries have come out the middle. That is precisely how he should not be used. New York's interior offensive line, Will Hernandez, Matt Skura, and Billy Price, all rate out as below-average run-blockers. For perspective, only 26.4% and 31.8% of his carries came up the middle in 2019 and 2020, respectively. It's time for him to be used on the edge again. If not, this offense has little chance of any explosiveness, and Barkley's rushing numbers will continue to suffer.

https://www.rotoballer.com/deep-dive...uggling/973158

I'm betting on coaching.

[Butter]

Billy Price was so bad he lost his starting job on last year's Bengals team that had an all-time bad offensive line. The Giants need to go all in on both lines, build from the inside out.

[Pyser]

for sure cuts:
p dixon
te rudolph
wr shephard
wr slayton

cut if you can't restructure:
lb martinez
cb bradberry

let it play out and deal with it next year:
qb jones
rb barkley
wr golladay
cb jackson

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

2018: 67.4% Zone
2019: 55.76% Zone
2020: 47.81% Zone

According to Pro Football Focus, 42% of Barkley's carries have come out the middle. That is precisely how he should not be used. New York's interior offensive line, Will Hernandez, Matt Skura, and Billy Price, all rate out as below-average run-blockers. For perspective, only 26.4% and 31.8% of his carries came up the middle in 2019 and 2020, respectively. It's time for him to be used on the edge again. If not, this offense has little chance of any explosiveness, and Barkley's rushing numbers will continue to suffer.

Deep Dive: Why is Saquon Barkley Struggling? | Fantasy News

I'm betting on coaching.

None of that explains why Booker has a higher yards per touch, a higher YPC and a better catch percentage in the exact same offense. When you are being outperformed by a journeyman, it’s safe to say there are questions whether you are being used suboptimally or not.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Okay, I am sold on Bradberry (too inconsistent and expensive), Martinez (same), and Rudolph (dust) being on the cut-when-it's-wisest list, to free up cap space, even at some cost in space next year in Bradberry's case especially.

Those moves, plus getting rid of some 3rd and 4th year players making high 6 figures and replacing them with UDFAs, will probably get you about $35m in cap space.

It'd say that's good for going after TE Schultz and a few of the lower ranked OL. Given the Giants need for talent in 4 of the 5 OL spots, I think going after 2 Guards in the $8m a year area is better than one Tackle that would cost $16m.

Fingers crossed that Nick Gates can come back from his broken leg. He's a quality C/G. If the Giants can get 2 decent Guards and move a fully recovered Gates back to Center, the line is looking pretty good. That would leave RT as a desperate need.

[stevew]

QB1-there's that lever on Jones' deal where he gets his 5th year option guaranteed before this season. Running him back is an expensive 2 year proposition cause I can't see how you would decline his 2023 option and then still go into 2022 with him as the #1.

That Galloday is like legit one of the worst deals I've ever seen.


I've got these moves which opens 49million up and we're rolling over a lot of this space

Released Blake Martinez
(Saved: $8,525,000)
Released Logan Ryan
(Saved: $750,000)
Released Kyle Rudolph
(Saved: $5,000,000)
Restructured Graham Gano
(Saved: $1,315,000)
Restructured Leonard Williams
(Saved: $8,982,500)
Released James Bradberry
(Saved: $12,136,111)
Restructured Kenny Golladay
(Saved: $7,976,667)
Released Riley Dixon
(Saved: $3,250,000)
Released Devontae Booker
(Saved: $2,000,000)

What about DeShaun Watson? Can we make that happen or is he just too toxic? We have the draft capital to do it now.

[bhlloy]

I think Watson falls outside of the bounds of this scenario - where we’ve been explicitly told that Jones is the #1 QB next season no matter what. And I don’t think the Giants are just a QB away and want to be giving up that much capital, especially for one with as much baggage who could be a court discovery away from never playing again.

With that being said, I’d firmly be in favor of a strong QB2 who can push Jones and maybe be 1B if he doesn’t perform better. I still think Mariota is a strong candidate to be the next Tannehill in the right environment, so maybe that’s the play.

[QuikSand]

A re-do of the deals with Williams and Golladay really emphasizes this year, and binds us to them for out-years. Ideal? What are we doing with all this one-year money?

Brandon Scherff is out there, possibly. Expensive for an interior OL but perhaps a difference maker there. Is that better than using our early 2nd on a guard?

[bhlloy]

Agreed, I think the only reason to restructure is if you are going big this year in FA. Seems like that is what got the Giants in this mess in the first place.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

A re-do of the deals with Williams and Golladay really emphasizes this year, and binds us to them for out-years. Ideal? What are we doing with all this one-year money?

Brandon Scherff is out there, possibly. Expensive for an interior OL but perhaps a difference maker there. Is that better than using our early 2nd on a guard?

Agree on Mariotta from above. Seems tire kick worthy. So would Fitzmagic perhaps.

Re: Re-do Just cause we cap out those guys doesn’t mean we have to spend the money they free up. We can always just roll it over into next years cap.

[stevew]

Seems like free agent corners and wide receivers are the worst types of contracts imaginable.

That being said James Washington is a FA WR I’d look into. I don’t think he was ever used properly in Pit

[SirFozzie]

Fire the whole coaching staff.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by stevew

Re: Re-do Just cause we cap out those guys doesn’t mean we have to spend the money they free up. We can always just roll it over into next years cap.

Cap-outs increase both the cap hit and the guaranteed share of future years in the contracts affected... so if we cap out someone like Golladay, that makes it a good deal harder to release or realign him down the road if we feel his production hasn't met expectations (gaa, ya think?).

Not sold on the roll-it-over theory.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Fire the whole coaching staff.

Saw that first half "highlight" did ya?

After that, this exercise seems rather futile, the stipulation of "keeping HC" means there probably isn't really any hope for improvement.

[stevew]

Read somewhere the giants were unable to promote 53 to the pre game active roster for this game because they have didn’t have enough cap space. (Obviously only 46 can play)

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Saw that first half "highlight" did ya?

After that, this exercise seems rather futile, the stipulation of "keeping HC" means there probably isn't really any hope for improvement.

The QB sneak on 3rd and 10?

They shouldn't have made it to halftime.

[bhlloy]

And that's why it made no sense to come out and say that Judge and Jones were coming back next season (not that Jones had anything to do with today's debacle, but Judge shouldn't make it to tomorrow morning)

[QuikSand]

Well, I adopted those tenets for our exercise here for two reasons:

-it is where the franchise is, so that keeps us a bit moored to reality; and

-it keeps us from wild front office and/or revolutionary tangents "we're going to hire Joe Brady as our HC and we will install this offense, so we need guys who fit it, etc"

[QuikSand]

How about we agree that we will pursue G Laken Tomlinson for $9m/yr, to help solidify the interior line? He charts out as the second-best guy in a decent market, that would be a reasonable show of force, I think. The relative equivalent of the Ravens' deal with Zeitler last offseason.

[SirFozzie]

So, we can't fire the Coach under these rules. Can we fire the Owner who's keeping the coach, then fire the coach?

[Josina Anderson] I'm told #Giants HC Joe Judge "is staying," per league source. : nfl

[stevew]

Out of context that sneak looked stupid, but weren't they basically conceding that they were going to punt and wanted to give their punter a bit more room? and wasn't the previous play also a sneak. Not defending them but it seems more plausible.

[QuikSand]

OK, so we get to hire a coach too, I guess.

[albionmoonlight]

Considering the dysfunction that surrounded this team, I'd be looking for a grown-up-in-the-room coach. A guy with credibility. An anti-clown-show guy, if you will.

Of course, you always want that, but I'm saying I'd look for that over emphasizing getting the hottest young playcaller type.

Dan Quinn comes to mind.

[sabotai]

Put Brian Flores on the shortlist of interviewees.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Put Brian Flores on the shortlist of interviewees.

Concur.

[albionmoonlight]

Doug Pederson and Jim Caldwell also come to mind.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I don't think I'd go defensive HC unless you have like THE perfect OC in mind.