Werewolf XXII - Way of the Colt - Game over, congrats samurai!

[TazFTW]

VOTE TANGLEWOOD

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Well, since no pk action happened last night, I’m pretty sure Desnudo is the turncoat/cultist type role. Probably appears as a Samurai, but wins with the Ninja.

You would be incorrect then. After sleeping on it for a night, very high on my suspect list is Eaglesfan. Despite his protestations of innocence, the fact remains that he moved his vote from AlanT to RPI. He was the deciding vote.

I, and I think everyone else, let it slide because we all like Eaglesfan and want to trust him. This is the second time this game when he's had to explain his behaviour because it differed in a big way from his normal modus operandi. Let's not forget that he certainly has the background to manipulate people. I'm probably more concerned about him at this point than anyone else.

Additionally you can look at Taz' vote one of two ways, as an oops, I just missed type vote, or a legitimate attempt to try and change things. I tend to believe the latter simply because he had no way of knowing whether hoopsguys would do a hard 7:00 stop. So a post at 7:01 seems very risky for not much gain if you are a ninja.

[Desnudo]

I also belive Tanglewood is highly suspect:

Vote Tanglewood

[Blade6119]

God damn you ninjas

[Blade6119]

dola, ok...i kinda knew it was coming, so let me just say good luck to the villagers and may you think every action through analytically

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Day 3
Alan T (7) - Saldana, Lathum, Coder , RPI, KWhit, Desnudo, Mr. Wednesday
KWhit (7) - Qwikshot, Blade, Grammaticus, Kingfc, TazFTW, Mustang, Alan T
RPI (3) - Schmidty, Tanglewood, Eaglesfan

Schmidty, taz, mr. wednesday, and tangle make my suspect list right now...one of those 4 will get my vote tomorrow as it stands

Ok, let's try and peel away the onion a little bit. First, I think someone one on Blade's list is definitely a ninja. Blade has shown the ability to mobilize voting, so the frame-up scenario doesn't really work in the instance. Second, there are likely 3 ninjas left. If there was more than one ninja vote on AlanT, then you can knock me over with a feather. So that leaves the following pool likely containing two, and possibly three, ninjas:

Qwik, Gramm, Taz, Mustang, Schmidty, Tangle, Eaglesfan. Not bad odds if we can reason it out.

[PackerFanatic]

S'ok Blade, come sit on the bench with me and watch everything unfold!

[Desnudo]

dola, forgot King. Was trying to read through Blade's HTML, sorry.

Qwik, Gramm, Taz, Mustang, Schmidty, Tangle, Eaglesfan, King.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

S'ok Blade, come sit on the bench with me and watch everything unfold!

Alas, i do hereby heartily accept your offer. At least now that im dead i can see again and defend myself again, as before i died i had another visitor...lets just say that was worse then dying

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Alas, i do hereby heartily accept your offer. At least now that im dead i can see again and defend myself again, as before i died i had another visitor...lets just say that was worse then dying

I can just imagine...

Well, I know how you feel...especially since I know who killed me and I unforunately can't haunt the members and tell, heh...

[Lathum]

If you look at post 1575 my vote is obvious.

VOTE TANGLEWOOD

[Blade6119]

Wow, i die and this thread goes quiet lol...did my death really give that little to discuss? Thats a nice shot to my ego right there

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

dola, forgot King. Was trying to read through Blade's HTML, sorry.

Qwik, Gramm, Taz, Mustang, Schmidty, Tangle, Eaglesfan, King.

After not doing much in the game lately (for various reasons), I am overwhelmed by the amount of info to take in. But why am I a suspect? Just curious as to the reasoning.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I've got some misgivings about automatically assuming that Alan was creating a tie to save a ninja, but realistically, what else do we have to go on? I'm not wedded to this vote, but for now...

Vote Tanglewood

[Schmidty]

By the way, I'm sticking with my vote for the 3rd straight day:

Vote Tanglewood

[Mr. Wednesday]

It just occurred to me that me having some misgivings isn't really indicative of much... I have misgivings all the time except when we're going off a reveal.

[Lathum]

OK, I am off for work untill about 3:00 AM EST so I will obviously miss the vote.

[Coder]

Awfully quiet in the time since I left work and got home 6 hours later..

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Coder

Awfully quiet in the time since I left work and got home 6 hours later..

I'm just catching up from work. I have a new resident working with me this month and that has made for a busy clinic today. Tonight, I promised my wife I would be spending time with her. However, I'll be sitting down after work to look at everything and vote.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, I am posting this now in case I get whacked. I have strong suspiciouns against tanglewood so I have been doing some research and came up with this.

#324- Tanglewood votes for Fozzie, a known good guy. Fozzie ends up the day one lynch. For some reason the people who voted for blade are under suspiscioun.

#776- I make the point that the people who voted for blade are actually in the clear in my book. I know for a fact 3 of the 5 are clean. Myself, Fozzie, and Kwhit

#778 AlanT points out I am on that list, drawing attention to me

#798 Tanglewood calls me out for really no good reason, after that he gets very quiet once Coder jumps on board.

#1061 Me and Tanglewood are neck and neck with tanglewood leading by one vote, there is some talk of maybe a tie could be a good thing BAM, ALANT UNVOTES TANGLEWOOD AND CASTS A MEANINGLESS VOTE FOR MUSTANG FORCING A TIE. NO ONE DIES

#1132- Tanglewood defends Alant's actions

#1297 The wording in this post seem to tie AlanT and Tanglewood together

#1389- Once again Tanglewood backs alanT

#1405- Tanglewood casts a meaningless vote for me since the heat was off me. At this point the vote total is AlanT-4 Kwhit-5

#1460- Once the Kwit bandwagon really gets going tanglewood jumps onboard. In my opinion this is an attempt to justify his voting pattern down the road.

#1465- Kwit outs himself as the seer, Des then switches followed by a vote by Mr. W to AlanT- IMO this clears Mr. W

THEN

#1470- TANGLEWOOD UNVOTES KWIT BUT MOVES HIS VOTE TO RPI FAN !! WHY CAST ANOTHER MEANINGLESS VOTE!!!!!

we all know what happens from here.

I am voting Tanglewood tomorrow if I am still alive.

Ultimately this post (as well as points made by others) makes me vote for Tanglewood.



I vote Tanglewood

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

After not doing much in the game lately (for various reasons), I am overwhelmed by the amount of info to take in. But why am I a suspect? Just curious as to the reasoning.

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Ok, let's try and peel away the onion a little bit. First, I think someone one on Blade's list is definitely a ninja. Blade has shown the ability to mobilize voting, so the frame-up scenario doesn't really work in the instance. Second, there are likely 3 ninjas left. If there was more than one ninja vote on AlanT, then you can knock me over with a feather. So that leaves the following pool likely containing two, and possibly three, ninjas:

Qwik, Gramm, Taz, Mustang, Schmidty, Tangle, Eaglesfan. Not bad odds if we can reason it out.

+King

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

+King

Two posts after the one you quoted for reference

Originally Posted by Desnudo

dola, forgot King. Was trying to read through Blade's HTML, sorry.

Qwik, Gramm, Taz, Mustang, Schmidty, Tangle, Eaglesfan, King.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

+King

Ok, that still doesn't answer my question (as far as solid reasoning). Also, why aren't you a suspect? What's your reasoning there?

[Coder]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Ok, that still doesn't answer my question (as far as solid reasoning). Also, why aren't you a suspect? What's your reasoning there?

I guess the reasoning is that of every other person displaying a list of suspects.. you'll always display yourself as a good guy

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Coder

I guess the reasoning is that of every other person displaying a list of suspects.. you'll always display yourself as a good guy

Hehe.

[kingfc22]

I miss Blade already. Not only did he save my life, but he added a lot of discussion to the game.

VOTE TANGLEWOOD

His RPI vote just stikes me as very odd and his play up to this point as noted by Lathum as been scetchy at best.

[Coder]

Anyway, the force is strong in this one..

Vote Tanglewood

[Coder]

To be honest I don't think that any of today's votes will serve as any basis for analysis in the future. I think that the ninjas know that voting on anyone else this time around will only make them look bad because the pile-on for Tangle is so substantial. They're sacrificing him.. (if he is a ninja that is )

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Ok, that still doesn't answer my question (as far as solid reasoning). Also, why aren't you a suspect? What's your reasoning there?

I think it makes lot of sense, unless you think it's more likely that all the remaining ninjas voted for AlanT yesterday.

If we assume that there are three ninjas left (might be one more, might be one less, unlikely to be more than 4 or less than 2), then the pool of non-AlanT voters is most likely to contain at least two of the ninjas. I find that scenario a lot more probable than one where the majority of the remaining ninjas voted for AlanT.

You belong to that pool of non-AlanT voters, hence on the list.

[Desnudo]

As for me not being a suspect, I drove the discussion on getting KWhit to reveal his role. If I had been a wolf, I would have let KWhit die without a fuss, as he apparently planned to do. I immediately changed my vote to AlanT after KWhit revealed.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

As for me not being a suspect, I drove the discussion on getting KWhit to reveal his role. If I had been a wolf, I would have let KWhit die without a fuss, as he apparently planned to do. I immediately changed my vote to AlanT after KWhit revealed.

Well, that is true and all. But if you were a ninja you would know that Alan was the brutal wolf/ninja and could get someone to reveal a valuable role knowing he would die right away without ever making it to the night phase. If he had said his role was something not as important you could easily of stayed on KWhit and killed him off normally. Now you "look" like a samurai since you led the switch onto Alan, knowing full well that you would take the seer out right away without any risk to being viewed at night.

[tanglewood]

I'm torn in two minds as whether to stay up for the lynch. On the one hand it's a forgone conclusion I'm going down so why bother, on the other I am peversely looking forward to seeing the reactions from everyone when it turns out I'm a samurai. Some player's reactions more than others especially....

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Well, that is true and all. But if you were a ninja you would know that Alan was the brutal wolf/ninja and could get someone to reveal a valuable role knowing he would die right away without ever making it to the night phase. If he had said his role was something not as important you could easily of stayed on KWhit and killed him off normally. Now you "look" like a samurai since you led the switch onto Alan, knowing full well that you would take the seer out right away without any risk to being viewed at night.

Of course I look like a samurai since I tried to keep KWhit alive. Probability, as a samurai was 100% in favor of voting the unknown, AlanT, rather than the known, KWhit. If everyone had followed my lead, Blade would likely be alive. We'd have an extra villager right now.

[RPI-Fan]

I don't like tanglewood, but I also want to lay some groundwork for tomorrow. I'm as clueless as anyone else about what happened on the first day, but king's last post just reeks of ninja to me.

VOTE KINGFC22

[Schmidty]

What are the votes as of right now?

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

What are the votes as of right now?

Don't have an official count, but I believe I was the first non-twood vote.

[hoopsguy]

Home from work, I'll compile the votes now and post a count.

[Schmidty]

Is this Tanglewood's first WW game?

[Eaglesfan27]

My wife is upset at me for "ignoring" her last night. She works late for the next 3 nights (weekends are busiest at the restaurant) and we won't get much time together. So, I'm off the board for a few hours, but I doubt there are any last minute revelations that would change my vote. I'll be back after she goes to sleep.

[hoopsguy]

I show 13 votes - don't think I double-counted anyone, so that would be everyone on the books.

Tanglewood (11) - Qwikshot (1596), Grammaticus (1597), Mustang (1598), TazFTW (1601), Desnudo (1603), Lathum (1611), Mr. Wednesday (1614), Schmidty (1615), Eaglesfan (1620), Kingfc (1626), Coder (1627)
Grammaticus (1) - Tanglewood (1600)
King (1) - RPI (1634)

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Is this Tanglewood's first WW game?

My first on this board, third overall IIRC and both those others were a while ago. Yes, my inexperience has probably lead to me being a pretty crappy samurai, unless some of my accusations hit, which they may well have. I guess that'll be something for you guys to debate tommorow.

This will probably be my last post before my lynch, so I will leave you all with a few thoughts/ramblings. I think Grammaticus is very supicious. Firstly, the actions of dubb early in the game were very odd and lead most everyone here to think him a possibly ninja, especially seeing as Blade is now confirmed good guy. Carrying on from that, Gramm's switching to vote for me when I was tied with Lathum on the day two lynch was odd. Perhaps Lathum (someone else whom I suspect, as do/did many others obviously due to his blanket attempt to clear all those who voted with him on day 1 and further vociferous defence) is a ninja and Gramm wanted to make sure I was lynched? This obviously makes little sense unless the ninja couldn't agree between themselves, as AlanT levelled it up anyway. So perhaps AlanT, who it is quite clear now levelled it up in order to attempt to gain respect of the village, and Gramm somehow planned a mini-fracas? Gramm criticised AlanT afterwards rather heavily, but didn't vote for him on day 3, instead voting for KWhit and not even moving off him prior to Kwhit being cleared. Gramm has now voted for a good guy every day so far (as has Schmidty, but I suspect him less so).

The other player I suspect heavily is TazFTW, both for his voting record and his action, or lack of it rather. It seems he is currently being the ultimate under the radar guy.

[tanglewood]

dola

Post Counts Up To This Point

User Name Posts
Blade6119 345 ------ Killed Night 3
Desnudo 109
Mustang 109
KWhit 97 --- Lynched/Killed Day 3
SirFozzie 95 --- Lynched Day 1
Eaglesfan27 92
dubb93 83 --- Replaced Day 1
Alan T 73 --- Lynched Day 3
Coder 66
RPI-Fan 56
Lathum 54
saldana 52 --- Killed Day 3
hoopsguy 49 -- Mod
Schmidty 49
kingfc22 48
tanglewood 47
Qwikshot 42
PackerFanatic 39 --- Killed Night 2
Mr. Wednesday 35
Grammaticus 30 --- Joined Late Day 1 (IIRC)
path12 20 --- Killed Night 2
ardent enthusiast 17 -- not even playing!!!
TazFTW 15
Barkeep49 4
Neon_Chaos 4
st.cronin 3
Raiders Army 3
Coffee Warlord 2
Brillig 1
SnDvls 1
WVUFAN 1

[RPI-Fan]

My badguy shortlist at this point (roughly in order):

TazTFW
kingfc22
tanglewood
Schmidty
Mustang


UNVOTE KINGFC22

VOTE TAZTFW

[tanglewood]

Double dola

It's dangerous to compare this game to previous games (is it even allowed? If not I will delete/edit this post just PM me Hoops) but for this it's the only real way to do quantifiable analysis.

WW XXI (this game) -- 33 pages, TazFTW 15 posts
WW XX -- 50 pages, TazFTW 42 posts
WW XIX -- 44 pages, TazFTW 52 posts
WW XVII -- 13 pages, TazFTW 11 posts

Taz is usually a quiet player, but he is certainly being even quieter than usuall in this game.

[hoopsguy]

Tanglewood, comparisons to previous games are only natural - your basis of an opinion for every player is influenced by their body of work, including the present game. More importantly, there is nothing in here that is attacking TazFTW personally which is where 'meta-game' strife usually starts.

No problem with this comment at all.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

My first on this board, third overall IIRC and both those others were a while ago. Yes, my inexperience has probably lead to me being a pretty crappy samurai, unless some of my accusations hit, which they may well have. I guess that'll be something for you guys to debate tommorow.

This will probably be my last post before my lynch, so I will leave you all with a few thoughts/ramblings. I think Grammaticus is very supicious. Firstly, the actions of dubb early in the game were very odd and lead most everyone here to think him a possibly ninja, especially seeing as Blade is now confirmed good guy. Carrying on from that, Gramm's switching to vote for me when I was tied with Lathum on the day two lynch was odd. Perhaps Lathum (someone else whom I suspect, as do/did many others obviously due to his blanket attempt to clear all those who voted with him on day 1 and further vociferous defence) is a ninja and Gramm wanted to make sure I was lynched? This obviously makes little sense unless the ninja couldn't agree between themselves, as AlanT levelled it up anyway. So perhaps AlanT, who it is quite clear now levelled it up in order to attempt to gain respect of the village, and Gramm somehow planned a mini-fracas? Gramm criticised AlanT afterwards rather heavily, but didn't vote for him on day 3, instead voting for KWhit and not even moving off him prior to Kwhit being cleared. Gramm has now voted for a good guy every day so far (as has Schmidty, but I suspect him less so).

The other player I suspect heavily is TazFTW, both for his voting record and his action, or lack of it rather. It seems he is currently being the ultimate under the radar guy.

I was actually asking you the question because I wanted to have a reason to clear you. I'm still considering it, but switching now when things seem so decided, I don't think I will. As far as me voting for "good guys" every time, have you been paying attention? First, I voted for Dubb, not SirFozzie (a Samurai). Other than that, I've voted for you. If you're a Samurai, sure I'll feel bad for making a mistake (along with the rest of the majority), but to say that I've voted for a "good guy" every time, is just ridiculous.

I think you are either a desperate ninja, or a lazy samurai.

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I was actually asking you the question because I wanted to have a reason to clear you. I'm still considering it, but switching now when things seem so decided, I don't think I will...

Just want to point how how hypocritical this statement is...

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Just want to point how how hypocritical this statement is...

Ok, just vote for me then.

This game has been way to "emotional" so far. I'm not pointing fingers, but I think the above people know what I'm talking about.

[tanglewood]

Schmidty, sorry I made a mistake re: the voting for good guys thing. It was TazFTW who along with Grammaticus has only voted for good guys, including me as a good guy obviously.

I simply misread one of my earlier posts. An honest mistake, sorry.

Edit: You can easily tell it's a mistake as I am saying dubb/gramm is my prime suspect, so why would I then accuse you of voting for only good guys when you voted for him? You reaction is interesting however...

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

You reaction is interesting however...

Ok. How would anyone react?