WW CLVII - Ghostbusters - Game Over (result in post 1521)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Cople of things about Pass - don't like the early vote on Katy. I think I remember him trying to float that boat before as a wolf. Also didn't like his reasoning that Coffee dropping from five to one vote was suspicious for Coffee. Unless he thought that Coffee was using his evil, wolfy hypnosis-ray.

Sorry you don't like that, either. It's always been a philsophy of mine to get rid of people who aren't playing.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I haven't looked back at the time, Pass, but my point is besides Katy you have the earliest vote in the vote list up there. And I remember that as soon as I made that comment about you, you appeared in thread. My point is simply that putting an early vote on CW didn't make my question about you disappear.

Katy's vote is really late -- do you mean besides Narcizo? I still don't know what point you're trying to make. Sure, it's the earliest vote, if you take away all the unvotes everyone was doing (me included). That just means I left at the end of my work day, and wasn't around for deadline. I don't understand your point in the last sentence either, but that's probably because I don't know what your question about me is.

[JAG]

PackerFanatic 2 - Danny (732), Autumn (787)
bhlloy 1 - Narcizo (779)
Zinto 1 - murra5y (764)

I will not be around much the next 2-3 hours.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Sounds like a gatekeeper/keymaster conversion.

Also, for what it is worth I have just achieved a major victory in the game and know who Venkman is. I do not expect him to vouch for me, since we want his identity to remain a secret.

I'll get a minor victory as well if/when the villagers pull this out.

In case this is not clear, I'm Slimer. I scan as a ghost (since I am one) but I'm not part of the Gozer "murder everyone" club.

I didn't want to reveal as vanilla because I was not. But I did want to get my major win if possible, and it was useful in terms of potentially building trust later in the game. Something that a vanilla villager could not do, since they had no ability to find Venkman.

While I'm posting in chunks here...

Not that I don't believe you, hoops, but I find the concept of getting a minor victory on top of the major victory you've already won to be strange.

[Passacaglia]

And I'm pleasantly surprised that when you slimed Venkman, that didn't involve killing him.

[mauchow]

Lathum is on two peoples 'trust more than others' list. I still like the idea of voting him but it seems like hes not going to gain traction today based on early convo. I'll put my money where my mouth is based on what i said this morning and go with PF. I think the analysis on him is solid..well maybe more like jello but we don't have much else to go on without a seer telling is where to go essentially, or if we find a wolf and can apply more analysis that way.

vote packer

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

And I'm pleasantly surprised that when you slimed Venkman, that didn't involve killing him.

Per rules, I'm mischevious and not malevolent. It may be a little nasty getting slimed, but it is hardly the Stay Puft treatment.

As far as the win conditions, I'll try to pick up all the wins that I can. With major in hand, that leaves my minor win condition. Might as well get it too

Of course, that would be a lot easier if we started finding the "bad" ghosts.

[Passacaglia]

I guess if you pick up the major and minor victory, you can play songs in whatever key you want.

[Lathum]

well, bhlloy is on my list of D1 voters on me, and I still think there is a wolf in there

Vote
Bhlloy

[Lathum]

Vote Bhlloy

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Katy's vote is really late -- do you mean besides Narcizo? I still don't know what point you're trying to make. Sure, it's the earliest vote, if you take away all the unvotes everyone was doing (me included). That just means I left at the end of my work day, and wasn't around for deadline. I don't understand your point in the last sentence either, but that's probably because I don't know what your question about me is.

Day one you had a vote that was nowhere in the conversation. I want to make sure everyone stays in the conversation, that's all. Voting early makes that difficult, clearly, but it's also a way for wolves to go UTR, so I'm going to keep pointing out players that aren't really putting themselves out there in posts or votes.

[hoopsguy]

Post diving now, trying to figure out who our seer is. Nothing to see here.

[Coffee Warlord]

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Day one you had a vote that was nowhere in the conversation. I want to make sure everyone stays in the conversation, that's all. Voting early makes that difficult, clearly, but it's also a way for wolves to go UTR, so I'm going to keep pointing out players that aren't really putting themselves out there in posts or votes.

For the record, mau had 2 votes on him when I placed the vote.

[bhlloy]

I'll keep Zinto up there. He's been incredibly UTR, even for his playing style

vote Zinto

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'll keep Zinto up there. He's been incredibly UTR, even for his playing style

vote Zinto

That time when bhlloy calls me incredibly UTR when we have the same amount of posts.

[hoopsguy]

Having some paranoid thoughts here, hoping others will talk through them with me.

Maybe we should be hunting the convert, because the Gozer scenario is the ultimate bad, right? And if we get Gatekeeper/Keymaster iced now, we turn this into a standard WW game rather than having to worry about that scenario.

I've got a follow-up to this, but I'll save it until there has been some discussion on the first point.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Sorry you don't like that, either. It's always been a philsophy of mine to get rid of people who aren't playing.

Yeah and as a wolf you're more likely than average to keep active players around right?

I dunno - there isn't an awful lot to go on at the moment. I want to see some sort of response from bhlloy at the moment. I'm not adverse to Packer being on the block.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Having some paranoid thoughts here, hoping others will talk through them with me.

Maybe we should be hunting the convert, because the Gozer scenario is the ultimate bad, right? And if we get Gatekeeper/Keymaster iced now, we turn this into a standard WW game rather than having to worry about that scenario.

I've got a follow-up to this, but I'll save it until there has been some discussion on the first point.

Great idea, but how could we possibly do this? My assumption is that no one, including the convert, know who it is. So it would just be random luck. Certainly if someone knows they're the convert they should offer themselves up.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Having some paranoid thoughts here, hoping others will talk through them with me.

Maybe we should be hunting the convert, because the Gozer scenario is the ultimate bad, right? And if we get Gatekeeper/Keymaster iced now, we turn this into a standard WW game rather than having to worry about that scenario.

I've got a follow-up to this, but I'll save it until there has been some discussion on the first point.

Hunting for the convertee is going to be a toughy really. And we don't even know whether coffee was the keymaster or gatekeeper. (we can always hope). What criteria would you suggest to look for them?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Certainly if someone knows they're the convert they should offer themselves up.

Yeah, that's not going to be the case. Not after the kerfuffle about Danny playing the villager line even when he was "supposed" to play as a wolf. Or something.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'll keep Zinto up there. He's been incredibly UTR, even for his playing style

vote Zinto

I find this vote curious.

You, on the block, could have put PF ahead of you, but instead to move it to a 3 horse race.

I know it is still early, just find it interesting.

[KatyLied]

So if we vote too early we're suspect and if we vote too late we're suspect?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by KatyLied

So if we vote too early we're suspect and if we vote too late we're suspect?

And if you vote in the middle, you're hiding your vote!

[Narcizo]

Zinto's late switch on day one gets him a degree of trust from me (unless Lathum actually is a wolf), although I imagine it's entering the wolf-playbook to pull that kind of move when if it's village-village.

In terms of starting wolf trust I'm more than average predisposed to Hoops, Lathum, Zinto and Danny. I guess murra5y as well, based on Hoops reasoning.

Convertee trust - I don't think Hoops, Lathum, Mau or Packers will be converted.

[Autumn]

Mostly what's suspect KatyLied, is voting but never explaining why, offering theories, or participating in the arguing over stuff. Well, not so much that it's suspect, but if we let people do that then wolves don't have to do any work. Argue your case, and you might get lynched anyway, but we have something to work with at least.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I find this vote curious.

You, on the block, could have put PF ahead of you, but instead to move it to a 3 horse race.

I know it is still early, just find it interesting.

It's still too early to be drawing conclusions like that I think. IN fact making it a three/four-horse race is probably the best form of defence at this stage.

[hoopsguy]

Well, here are my thoughts on convert.
1.) Clearly CW wasn't converted. However, I suspect if we lynched either Zool or the Vinz they would show up as that character (assumption #1)
2.) I suspect Zool/Vinz didn't get a PM telling them they were Zool/Vinz, but instead got a vanilla villager PM. Otherwise, we would have three different people trying to signal to the wolves (cultist + two potential converts) in a 17 person game. Seems a little much (assumption #2)
3.) In a game with no bodyguard role, you take your shots at whoever is the most trusted player. Especially if you think there is a possibility someone was seer scanned as good, but not outright identified that way in the thread (big assumption #3, but how big a leap is this? See conversion of DQ last game as Exhibit A, can come up with many other examples)

So, who fits #3? The guy I defended yesterday - murra5y. Who, it should be noted, got rave reviews for his wolf performance two games ago.

If we want to go chasing converts, I would start with him and put the chances substantially higher than 1/12 (assume no one votes for themselves). Maybe not 50/50, but if we're prepared to eliminate a BG block from list of possibilities last night and agree that Gozer is THE BIGGEST DANGER in this game then I think this is the right play.

[PackerFanatic]

And better to be lynched and still win with the village than survive to the end and still somehow lose! *cough* last game *cough*

[murrayyyyy]

How likely is that they know who they are is the thing I struggle with. Am I allowed to bring in real time theories around last night deadline? I think Autumn is correct with the villager not knowing their gatekeeper/keymaster role until it happened last night. Hence the delay in posting about the communist yak dying.

If they know who they are then they are probably lurking in the shadows hoping the numbers whittle down and someone will guess them. This way they can play both sides of the coin to win.

[hoopsguy]

Anyway, I don't want to go on a one-man hunt for converts. But if people think that the risk/reward of potentially stopping the Gozer scenario should be our highest priority, then I would want us to either vote murra5y today or ensure he is scanned tonight.

I'll resume post analysis looking for original ghosts now.

[mauchow]

I'm personally not ready to convert hunt and its not to say we can't put together a list of possibilities and theories. Your logic where you're going seems good so I certainly would like to go there when it might make more sense.

I don't do a lot of analysis regardless so I would be of no help when it came to this anyway other than maybe applying a different perspective on things.

[hoopsguy]

Mau, just looking to get feedback from others. Would much rather have a "bad idea, hoops" response with some reasons why than nothing at all in the thread. Discussion = good for village.

[mauchow]

Exactly. I honestly believe the only 'good' convert player would be murrayyyyy as of this moment. I can see arguments made for multiple people but at the same time they could just as easy been an original wolf..

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by mauchow

Exactly. I honestly believe the only 'good' convert player would be murrayyyyy as of this moment. I can see arguments made for multiple people but at the same time they could just as easy been an original wolf..

I'd add Danny, Autumn and, probably, Passa to that list, and they might add me. I think and hope that the assumption that Zool and Vinz don't know who they are is a good one, or else you want to look for posts with the words 'key' or 'gate' in them. Assumption 1 I'm not 100% sold on but it makes sense.
I think assumption 3 is an assumption too far though. I don't think the village has ever had any luck second-guessing wolves kill orders.

[mauchow]

I follow that but why is danny/autumn/pass more likely to be a convert over being an original wolf?

You're saying the seer probably scans them first vs someone like katy/murrayy? Obviously that would be true in most cases.

We are going to sit in limbo until we know the seers results..which hopefully they would have good results for us either tomorrow or day 5.

[mauchow]

And like with most games if we have three/four seer scans along with a lynched wolf we can do some good deducing on the info presented to us.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Yeah, that's not going to be the case. Not after the kerfuffle about Danny playing the villager line even when he was "supposed" to play as a wolf. Or something.

Huh? I always try and play my role accordingly.

[JAG]

PackerFanatic 3 - Danny (732), Autumn (787), mauchow (806)
bhlloy 2 - Narcizo (779), Lathum (810)
Zinto 2 - murra5y (764), bhlloy (815)

[Narcizo]

You did but you didn't play the way the GM expected you to. Can't remember the game - it was last year some time.

And mau - I would expect Autumn or Danny to be a night kill order, all other things being equal.

[Autumn]

I think that's a pretty good guess, Hoops. I think I agree that the village has a very poor record when it comes to trying to guess wolf actions, but your logic makes sense. Still, a Murray convert makes more sense than a murray kill, and the wolves wouldn't know which result they would get. If I were them, I would simply go about my business seer-searching, killing off good villagers and trying to confuse the village, and just hope I get lucky. Doesn't make sense to try to plan on a convert when you have no idea if it will happen.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

You did but you didn't play the way the GM expected you to. Can't remember the game - it was last year some time.

And mau - I would expect Autumn or Danny to be a night kill order, all other things being equal.

Oh yeah. the game EF ran where I got a chance to convert to wolf and turned it down.

[Danny]

Based on who is voting whom, I dont think I will be switching to Zinto.

[Danny]

I may switch to BH

[Autumn]

That's not an abbreviation that works, Danny. Took me 30 seconds of staring at it to figure it out.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I find this vote curious.

You, on the block, could have put PF ahead of you, but instead to move it to a 3 horse race.

I know it is still early, just find it interesting.

I'm vanilla and I'm not going to fight too hard to save myself here. I think it's far preferable for the village to have more candidates than end up in a two horse race that we find it hard to get out of. And I really want to see Zinto talk more.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Voting yesterday looks bad for Chubby if Packer is a wolf. His switch off of Packer to Hoops went a long way to making it a two-horse race with Coffee and Hoops, stealing all the momentum that Hoops and Coffee had got going on Packer. But is there actually any case against Packers?

I question Bhlloy's voting yesterday as well. At the start of the day he was Lathum or Mau but when he switches away from mau because he has no votes he picks Coffee instead of Lathum, when both are on three votes. That puzzles me. As I think Lathum is villager I don't see it as being a wolf-move per sé. But it suggests that he wasn't really all that sold on Lathum from the outset, in which case why did he come out so strongly?

I'm not liking Passacaglia's game up to this point either. He seems to be sliding through. Admittedly that's not normally his game whether he's wolf or villager but I don't like it.

I never voted packer yesterday

[JAG]

Originally Posted by mauchow

Lathum is on two peoples 'trust more than others' list. I still like the idea of voting him but it seems like hes not going to gain traction today based on early convo. I'll put my money where my mouth is based on what i said this morning and go with PF. I think the analysis on him is solid..well maybe more like jello but we don't have much else to go on without a seer telling is where to go essentially, or if we find a wolf and can apply more analysis that way.

vote packer

Last edited by mauchow : Today at 09:23 AM.

Public service reminder: Please do not edit posts that have votes in them. I counted this one, but I will not accept any future ones.

[Chubby]

Just getting caught up while at the bank (mtgs today). Not much to add at this point tho I will most likely vote when I get home (pretty sure who I'm initially voting for tdoay)

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chubby

I never voted packer yesterday

Sorry - I meant the move off of Coffee to Hoops.