Werewolf XII: Mafia Returneth

[Poli]

Good call. Dubb's a villager for sure now.

[SnDvls]

ouch

[Blade6119]

ah crap is matt(bek) ever going to kick my ass tonight when we hang out...if i dont post tomorrow please give me your prayers...

Sorry to the group, the PM just sounded sketch...ill prob. check dubb tonight, but im open to any ideas since my role is fairly pupblic knowledge now,...

[illinifan999]

Didn't really think Bek would be that stupid....

[Blade6119]

wait, so did neon slip up and tell us dubb was a villager or just did the wrong name???

[Bek]

*Raising from dead*
I'm glad that no one takes my word when I say that you all are making a mistake and voting for me...but live and learn..good luck to the rest of you
*Devil comes and takes Bek back to Hell*

[kingfc22]

Go Mafia Go!!!

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

wait, so did neon slip up and tell us dubb was a villager or just did the wrong name???

I'm a villager. I would prefer you choose someone else for your viewing so we can possibly get a mafia person, but you are more than welcome to clear me if you wish.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

wait, so did neon slip up and tell us dubb was a villager or just did the wrong name???

I just did the wrong name. I was editing it on the quick reply box and was in a hurry.

[Neon_Chaos]

You wake up in morning, look around and notice that one of you is missing. MrBug708 is nowhere to be found. You head for his room, and do not find him. You do find tons of notes, articles and whatnot. There is a small tape recorder and a camera on the dresser. You hear water running from the bathroom and go inside. MrBug708's lifeless body is hanging from the roof, a rope tightly wound around his neck. With what you have seen in his room, you can only surmise that MrBug708 was the Newspaper Investigator!

Current Players:
1. dubb93
2. ardent enthusiast
3. SackAttack
4. Fouts
5. RealDeal - Villager, Lynched Day 1
6. Bearcat729
7. illinifan999
8. MrBug708 - Newspaper Investigator, Killed By Mafia Night 3
9. SnDvls
10. Mr. Wednesday - Witness, Killed By Mafia Night 1
11. digamma
12. bek - Villager, Lynched Day 3
13. Aesyrqwe - Villager, Lynched Day 2
14. Shorty3281
15. pennywisesb
16. Schmidty
17. Blade6119
18. jeff061

It is now Day (4). Votes are due at 9PM EDT.

[illinifan999]

Boy we just keep getting fucked.

[Poli]

I'm trying to trust you blade...I just don't know what to say.

[digamma]

That does suck.

So much for having anything to go on for tomorrow's vote.

[Fouts]

WTF. I am really confused now.

[dubb93]

Wouldn't they have killed the known seer if he really was a seer? What the hell is Blade's role that lets him view people anyway? I must have missed that somewhere.

[hoopsguy]

This is like the bizzaro version of the quick vampire game - the villagers are getting mauled.

[illinifan999]

Unless he's another witness....

[illinifan999]

Originally Posted by illinifan999

Unless he's another witness....

That was meant for the speculation about blade. I'd rather think that he wouldn't lie about something that could so easily be disproved.....

[dubb93]

Right now my 2 main suspects are Blade and Bearcat, I will make a big post with my views on everyone sometime 2morrow. I'll give ya real quick reasons right now....

Blade: Claims he is a seer. "sold" out his friend who was joking, we had no way to know if he was joking as we don't know how they joke between each other. I will say this, if my friend was BS'n me I would be able to tell, or atleast confront him about it b/f I went public. And if he was really a seer and not with the mafia they would have killed him last night....unless that is what they want us to think. Anyway he "claims" to have viewed me last night, it will be interesting to see if he tries to frame me next. Something tells me he may be a mafia seer looking for the son of the don.

Bearcat: Just flat out weird. Voted Realdeal on day 1 without giving a reason. This is no suprise as nearly everyone including myself voted Realdeal on day 1(although it wasn't counted b/c he didn't bold his vote), but WE ALL GAVE A REASON! His post contained no reason, just the vote. Votes Sack on day 2, again, no reason given. He unvotes Sack saying he didn't have a reason...and votes Shorty claiming his joke of calling us idiots is "fishy." Day 3, votes me, gives no reason. I call him on it and he says he voted me b/c it isn't going to get me killed and acknowledges he has had a completely random voting patern.

Bearcat is flying under the radar, trying not to make enemies and trying to go unnoticed. His behavior has been very erratic, but I'm not 100% sure it's enough to label him mafia yet.

[Vince]

Is there a mercy rule?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Blade: Claims he is a seer. "sold" out his friend who was joking, we had no way to know if he was joking as we don't know how they joke between each other. I will say this, if my friend was BS'n me I would be able to tell, or atleast confront him about it b/f I went public. And if he was really a seer and not with the mafia they would have killed him last night....unless that is what they want us to think. Anyway he "claims" to have viewed me last night, it will be interesting to see if he tries to frame me next. Something tells me he may be a mafia seer looking for the son of the don.

A couple things, i havent yet submitted my scan for tonight since i thought i would die...secondly, my bet is i didnt die because they knew the cop would protect me and they didnt want to waste a kill....my assumption is the don's son was night two..with him out there i cant imagine neon would let them bribe, so i think they got him on night two during the no-kill and we have four up against us. I spoke with matt this evening, and he expressed his concern over me killing him...i cant tell when hes joking usually, but he sent this over PM and not in person...no smilies, nothing...i couldnt decode that. Im not going to scan you, as i still think neon tipped his hand, but were at the point where we cant miss even one day now since the reporter is gone...

I can reiterate to you, killing me wil help the ratio of mafia-villager ratio...im not a villager, but im not a mafia either...i do count as a villager though, so killing me will only hurt the ever decreasing ratio(i think its 8-4 now...thats means tomorrow and maybe another) I will continue to scan, and hope the cop didnt protect me last night and will do so tonight so we can try and win this still. if you doubt that, well, act on it...were already soo fucked over it wont matter...

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

A couple things, i havent yet submitted my scan for tonight since i thought i would die...secondly, my bet is i didnt die because they knew the cop would protect me and they didnt want to waste a kill....my assumption is the don's son was night two..with him out there i cant imagine neon would let them bribe, so i think they got him on night two during the no-kill and we have four up against us. I spoke with matt this evening, and he expressed his concern over me killing him...i cant tell when hes joking usually, but he sent this over PM and not in person...no smilies, nothing...i couldnt decode that. Im not going to scan you, as i still think neon tipped his hand, but were at the point where we cant miss even one day now since the reporter is gone...

I can reiterate to you, killing me wil help the ratio of mafia-villager ratio...im not a villager, but im not a mafia either...i do count as a villager though, so killing me will only hurt the ever decreasing ratio(i think its 8-4 now...thats means tomorrow and maybe another) I will continue to scan, and hope the cop didnt protect me last night and will do so tonight so we can try and win this still. if you doubt that, well, act on it...were already soo fucked over it wont matter...

I'll take this post under consideration, and I didn't mean to sound like an ass which it kinda sounds like I did re-reading what I posted about you being able to tell if yur friend was BS'n. I know it doesn't seem you took offense to it, but I'll just throw that out that I didn't mean anything personal about that.

I'm not going to cast a vote for a while, I want to write up a report on everyone 2morrow, see what I can gather and hope to get some other peoples feedback. We REALLY need to get a mafia person 2morrow, even if it turns out to be you

[MrBug708]

Man...

[SackAttack]

I'm a little bit surprised the Mafia have nailed major roles in successive nights. That just doesn't seem statistically probable.

[jeff061]

Wait, so yo didn't scan anyone last night Blade?

[digamma]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Wait, so yo didn't scan anyone last night Blade?

That's how I read it. What a disaster.

[jeff061]

Well the deadline is 9am, so by the rules he had another 9 hours to get his viewing in.

[digamma]

I guess that's true, but Neon is halfway across the world and usually isn't up during our "day."

[Bearcat729]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I'm a little bit surprised the Mafia have nailed major roles in successive nights. That just doesn't seem statistically probable.

It could be luck. With every vote so far resulting in the death of a normal villager the chances of the mafia picking a major role would have to increase. It seems to me that the people who nobody is talking about would be the more likely candidates to be mafia.

[jeff061]

I tend to agree. That doesn't mean they are all being quiet though, just that this early in the game they are not going to take any actions that stick out.

[SackAttack]

Upon further reconsideration, I'm suspecting Blade and Shorty are Mafia.

Why? Blade, we already know, has claimed to be a seer. He has further claimed that it was unnecessary to view Bek because he "knew" Bek was a Mafioso, and said that such a viewing would have been wasted in light of that knowledge.

Bek, of course, turned out to be a villager, and despite Blade's "revelation," he wasn't the prime target of the Mafia last night. There's really no way they could have known Bug was the Newspaper Reporter unless one of their players has a similar role and just managed to hit the jackpot, so I don't see any other logical reason for them to choose to leave Blade alive while they take out random villagers.

Also, he apparently did not view anybody last night (although this is probably the flimsiest straw in my case against him).

So why do I think Shorty is also a Mafioso?

Well, Blade claimed to have viewed both Shorty and myself in the first two nights, and declared both of us "clean." If most of the villagers already trusted me before that point - and I'd like to think that's the case - what better way to slip another Mafioso inside the "circle of trust" than to label him "clean" along with another player already known or suspected to be safe?

And yet...we really have nothing to go on to this point but Blade's word that he isn't a Mafioso. We have claims that he's viewed Shorty and myself, but we also have an assertion that viewing Bek was unnecessary, when we now know that if he's on the level, and had he acted on his suspicions and viewed Bek, an innocent villager could have been saved. We have either a failure to scan anybody last night, or else the following proposition:

The Mafia are incredibly lucky, hitting on two important villagers in successive attacks, while our own seer is either incompetent, or simply so mistrustful of his fellow villagers that he's selecting safe people each night to view, on the hypothesis that it's "always the ones you wouldn't otherwise suspect.

That I suspect Shorty isn't because of anything Shorty has or hasn't done, but simply because I believe Blade to be a Mafioso at this point, and that being so, it would make perfect sense to me for him to try and slip Shorty inside the village's "circle of trust."

So I vote Shorty.

My reasoning here is that if my hypothesis is true and correct, uncovering Shorty will expose Blade in a major way. After all, if Bek was innocent and Shorty guilty - both the opposite of Blade's assertions - then we know Blade is lying, and we have our target for tomorrow night.

If I'm wrong, then we've made another horrible mistake, but we've made quite a few of those this game, and it isn't as though I have anything better than this to go on right now thanks to the witness and newspaper reporter croaking.

[jeff061]

That's a possibility. I also know if I was Mafia I would of attacked Blade last night, and two nights in a row if he was protected. His role is more than powerful enough to risk going one night without a kill.

[illinifan999]

Part of me wants to believe that Blade is a witness role and is telling the truth about Sack and shorty being clean.

The other part thinks that Sack is onto something but that maybe he is a mafia role. I know I defended you early on, but I just don't know. Your theory is great if blade isn't really a witness, but if he is telling the truth and is just playing the role as poorly as some people told me in the last game when I was a duke but ended up nailing someone on the first day then maybe you're the lost son and shorty is clean. Or maybe you're both clean and this is going to send another one of us into the lynching which is the last thing we need. I'm looking pretty suspicious at bearcat right now for the same reasons as dubb, but there is just a feeling I have that dubb might be mafia.

So at the end of this post, I'm just very paranoid and think pretty much everyone but me is in the mafia.

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by illinifan999

Part of me wants to believe that Blade is a witness role and is telling the truth about Sack and shorty being clean.

The other part thinks that Sack is onto something but that maybe he is a mafia role. I know I defended you early on, but I just don't know. Your theory is great if blade isn't really a witness, but if he is telling the truth and is just playing the role as poorly as some people told me in the last game when I was a duke but ended up nailing someone on the first day then maybe you're the lost son and shorty is clean. Or maybe you're both clean and this is going to send another one of us into the lynching which is the last thing we need. I'm looking pretty suspicious at bearcat right now for the same reasons as dubb, but there is just a feeling I have that dubb might be mafia.

So at the end of this post, I'm just very paranoid and think pretty much everyone but me is in the mafia.

I agree with Illinifan here. At this point its so hard to tell who is who. I still can't believe what Blade's doing at this point, but I have to feel its more attributed to mistakes made by him, rather than him actually being a part of the mafia.

I also like the point Sack made about Shorty. So, at this point, I'm leaning towards Shorty but I'm gonna wait to cast a vote. I also feel that Sackattack is in my circle of trust because at this point, it seems as though him and I are analyzing along the same lines.

[Blade6119]

I submitted my scan of fouts last night and he turned up clean...i wont be around today since i have to help my sister move into her new apartment, but were at the point in the game where we have to hit jackpot every day(if my math is right)...Now if i was mafia, and bek agreed over dinner last night, why target me last night? The cop would have been protecting me, and they would have wasted a night...you then can kill me easy and clean tonight since he cant protect the same person two nights in a row...instead of getting 1 block and a kill, they get 2 kills(by amazing luck it looks like both seers...). The mafia are a day or so away from having a 1-1 ratio, think long and hard before you act...fyi though, sack, dubb, penny are all talkative...i havent heared too much from fouts or ardent...either way could mean mafia, but going over that list i didnt even know fouts was playing...thats why i scanned him...I wont be around, so ill stick to my new prime target that fouts is clear...

Vote Ardent

havent heared more than a short word here or there all game from an ardent who is certainly on the board alot...

[Poli]

Sorry, ain't me, bud. I've been caught up way too much in the other werewolf game as of late. I'll admit I should be reading and posting here more. In fact, the latest mistake by you has me thinking either you or shorty.

[jeff061]

Like I said, if I was mafia I would attack you both nights without hesitation, just to make sure.

I don't buy into the "Vote the Quiet ones" strategy.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Sorry, ain't me, bud. I've been caught up way too much in the other werewolf game as of late. I'll admit I should be reading and posting here more. In fact, the latest mistake by you has me thinking either you or shorty.

Might in inquire as to my latest mistake? I got my scan in last night at 9:00 my time(pacific)...neon was on, replied to a few questions i had besides the scan, and i went to a movie knowing fouts was in the clear..i didnt post it immediately after i got it, so if thats a mistake im sorry, but i had it last night and didnt miss any deadlines...on night one i submitted my scan after the night results went up as well, no worries...Id like you to inform me of my other mistakes so i can learn or not make them again...thanks for you help old friend

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Might in inquire as to my latest mistake?

Well, it wasn't about the scan, but that did have me worried as well. Your wording was, well, not good. A few of us definitely were concerned. I was talking about the bek situation, actually.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Like I said, if I was mafia I would attack you both nights without hesitation, just to make sure.

I don't buy into the "Vote the Quiet ones" strategy.

Fair enough, then stick to your guns and take shorty or i...but god, trust sack attack..because if he says so he has to be clean(and note, he posted his role on day two...if he was mafia and they have a seer, he could just repost the role exactly as i did in the x-com game...in my mind his role reveal didnt mean squat..hence why i scanned him...and since you all doubt me and shorty i dont see how he gets by inspection...but anywho, hope you do well...just remember, i count on the villager tab for the ratio that will end the game...killing me only helps the mafia(hell, even makes tonight easy for them)

[jeff061]

You know it is possible to be suspicious of more than two people. I already mentioned Sack would be the top candidate for conversion.

[Poli]

To be honest, I find it really hard to believe you could be 0-3 in scans.

[jeff061]

18 players and maybe 3-4 mafia? I don't think that' would be odd.

[dubb93]

Here is some food for thought....Bugs last 2 actions before death were voting for Jeff and saying he doesn't trust Shorty. Those are from a CONFIRMED seer. Something tells me he hit something on atleast 1 of them.

[jeff061]

And Blade you go to stop being so dramatic You haven't even got a single vote towards you, and no one said they would vote for you.

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Here is some food for thought....Bugs last 2 actions before death were voting for Jeff and saying he doesn't trust Shorty. Those are from a CONFIRMED seer. Something tells me he hit something on atleast 1 of them.

I agree with this too. For some reason whenever I'm analyzing whats going on I keep coming back to Shorty.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Here is some food for thought....Bugs last 2 actions before death were voting for Jeff and saying he doesn't trust Shorty. Those are from a CONFIRMED seer. Something tells me he hit something on atleast 1 of them.

Yeah I see where your coming from, I know(well think) he did not hit anything because I'm innocent and he voted for me over Shorty.

Yeah, I know that's far from considered fact from anyone but me .

[jeff061]

I agree with this too. For some reason whenever I'm analyzing whats going on I keep coming back to Shorty.

This is my likely vote. But I think if Bug had anything solid he would of voted on Shorty. Certainly doesn't wipe out ofher existing suspicions though.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by jeff061

18 players and maybe 3-4 mafia? I don't think that' would be odd.

You're right, I guess I didn't think that through. I was thinking along the lines or remaining villagers. There's 12 villagers available, since he wouldn't scan himself. There's 2 he says he's scanned, so cut them out. Of the 10, there's 3-4 mafia. I would think those odds are good myself. But as I think of it, Bug was probably still alive and a possibility, so that reduces the probability.

[dubb93]

Bearcat has been lurking for a long time.....