Werewolf XVIII: To Crown a King (GAME OVER)

[Schmidty]

I can't find any good reason to vote for anyone, despite the comments from people that have cast their votes so far. There's just not much to go on. Dubb's comment is the only one that even remotely seemed odd to me (and it still could have been innocent). Going by that, I'll cast my vote for him; but since I'm just not sure about anything, I won't vote for an execute.

VOTE DUBB JAIL

[RPI-Fan]

Guys, sorry I was out all day... still behind schedule from an exhausting weekend...

Just got all caught up:

I, too, am one who hasn't seemed to receive a helpful message from my leader (little disappointed in that, in fact).

Because of that, I'm going to go off of who I feel very comfortable with, and

VOTE MCSWEENY EXECUTE

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Guys, sorry I was out all day... still behind schedule from an exhausting weekend...

Just got all caught up:

I, too, am one who hasn't seemed to receive a helpful message from my leader (little disappointed in that, in fact).

Because of that, I'm going to go off of who I feel very comfortable with, and

VOTE MCSWEENY EXECUTE

Want to clarify this without editing...

I'm going to VOTE with those who I feel comfortable with ATM.

[hoopsguy]

Someone have a count of votes at this point? I'll start working on it if no one else has up to this point.

Coffee, I'll remove the vote from Dubb if you are vouching for him. It doesn't mean a great deal in terms of noble/assassin, but it does establish linkage for later in the game and it generally isn't a wolf play to provide that info. Particularly when he wasn't in real danger at that time.

[RPI-Fan]

This is going off of McSweeney's post at around #180 (I took that as accurate, and then tallied from there...

McSweeny - Coffee Warlord, GWB, Dubb, RPI-Fan
Mr. Wednesday - Vince, Blade
Blade - Pass, ardent, McSweeny
Ardent Enthusiast - st. cronin
Dubb - Hoopsguy, Mr. W (jail), Schmidty (jail)

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Someone have a count of votes at this point? I'll start working on it if no one else has up to this point.

Coffee, I'll remove the vote from Dubb if you are vouching for him. It doesn't mean a great deal in terms of noble/assassin, but it does establish linkage for later in the game and it generally isn't a wolf play to provide that info. Particularly when he wasn't in real danger at that time.

Unless he by some miracle he randomly spouted off a perfect summary of the PM I got from my leader, he's on the up and up.

[Joe]

who hasnt voted yet? I count 5 votes missing, we have 18 players and 13 votes

[hoopsguy]

Desnudo and Pennywise have not showed up at all in the thread today, going from memory.

[TazFTW]

Not a big fan of executing someone Day 1, so I'll jail someone.


Vote Blade6119 Jail

[hoopsguy]

Here is what I show for voting through Post #209

Post #96 Blade votes EXECUTE MRW
Post #102 Cronin votes EXECUTE AE
Post #136 Vince votes EXECUTE BLADE
Post #140 Coffee votes EXECUTE BLADE
Post #142 Pass votes EXECUTE BLADE
Post #154 Vince unvotes, votes EXECUTE MRW
Post #155 Dubb votes JAIL MCSWEENY
Post #170 Hoopsguy votes EXECUTE DUBB
Post #176 GWB votes EXECUTE MCSWEENY
Post #181 Coffee unvotes, votes EXECUTE MCSWEENY
Post #196 Ardent votes EXECUTE BLADE
Post #197 Saldana votes EXECUTE MCSWEENY
Post #198 MrW votes JAIL DUBB
Post #200 McSweeny votes EXECUTE BLADE
Post #201 Schmidty votes JAIL DUBB
Post #202 RPI votes EXECUTE MCSWEENY
Post #209 Taz votes JAIL BLADE

MRW - Blade (E), Vince (E)
AE - Cronin (E)
Blade - Pass (E), Ardent (E), McSweeny (E), Taz (J)
McSweeny - Dubb (J), GWB (E), Coffee (E), Saldana (E), RPI (E)
Dubb - Hoopsguy (E), MRW (J), Schmidty (J)

Five on McS, four on Blade, three on Dubb, two on MrW, and one on AE. I'm planning to move mine from Dubb. But based on some of the posts I've read I'm not confident that either of our vote leaders are wolves/assassins.

[saldana]

i voted for mcsweeney in post 197, but its not in the last count


with that, i will be out until after the vote...the site is blocked for me at work after 830 until i can get the IT guy to move my break window for me.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

But based on some of the posts I've read I'm not confident that either of our vote leaders are wolves/assassins.

I'd be suspicious of anyone who is confident of anything at this point.

[RPI-Fan]

Five on McS, four on Blade, three on Dubb, two on MrW, and one on AE. I'm planning to move mine from Dubb. But based on some of the posts I've read I'm not confident that either of our vote leaders are wolves/assassins.

This is the thing, and also explains why I was SO against Pass last game.

You NEVER have a good idea who the wolves are on Day 1. So given that there was I'd say at least a 25% chance Pass was a wolf (and if he wasn't and we let him live, his herbalist powers were wasted), there was no doubt in my mind that he had to go, even though there was a GOOD chance that he was a villager.

Same thing here, to a lesser extent. All you can do, is play the odds and hope to go from there.

[st.cronin]

I don't have any ideas yet, except for that I do know who my faction leader is, and I don't *think* you can be a faction leader and an assasin.

[hoopsguy]

Post #196 from AE:

I will now vote. Blade, this has absolutely nothing to do with you.

Vote Blade6119 execute

OK, if it has nothing to do with Blade then it should have something to do with following votes from your peers? But at the time you cast the vote the only person that I saw who still had their vote on Blade was Passacaglia.

There have been two votes that followed, but those should not have factored into your thinking. So are you suggesting that you know you are aligned with Passacaglia?

For what it is worth here, I don't think I'm doing the work of the werewolfs in flushing out a faction leader in Pass. I'm pretty suspicious that this is a wolf trying to dump a vote on a non-wolf on Day 1. Pretty typical WW play ...

So I know that I had posted earlier that I wasn't intending to cast my vote in the direction of one of the initial four pointing at each other (AE/Cronin and Blade/MrW) but I'm growing more convinced on the re-reads that Dubb is a member of a faction and not an assassin.

UNVOTE EXECUTE DUBB93
VOTE EXECUTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST

Finally, the reason that I think that there are only two factions is because I think I'm reading the tea leaves correctly in determining that there are a sufficient number of people in one faction (perhaps mine, perhaps another one where I've decoded patterns) to suggest that the faction is larger than five. If there is a faction larger than five (not convinced, but think this is the case) then that strongly suggests only two noble factions.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Post #196 from AE:


OK, if it has nothing to do with Blade then it should have something to do with following votes from your peers? But at the time you cast the vote the only person that I saw who still had their vote on Blade was Passacaglia.

There have been two votes that followed, but those should not have factored into your thinking. So are you suggesting that you know you are aligned with Passacaglia?

For what it is worth here, I don't think I'm doing the work of the werewolfs in flushing out a faction leader in Pass. I'm pretty suspicious that this is a wolf trying to dump a vote on a non-wolf on Day 1. Pretty typical WW play ...

So I know that I had posted earlier that I wasn't intending to cast my vote in the direction of one of the initial four pointing at each other (AE/Cronin and Blade/MrW) but I'm growing more convinced on the re-reads that Dubb is a member of a faction and not an assassin.

UNVOTE EXECUTE DUBB93
VOTE EXECUTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST

Finally, the reason that I think that there are only two factions is because I think I'm reading the tea leaves correctly in determining that there are a sufficient number of people in one faction (perhaps mine, perhaps another one where I've decoded patterns) to suggest that the faction is larger than five. If there is a faction larger than five (not convinced, but think this is the case) then that strongly suggests only two noble factions.

I am pretty sure your analysis is totally wrong, although your conclusion may be correct.

- My vote for ae was not based on anything I thought *about* ae; at any rate, ae voted for somebody else, so you could hardly say we were pointing fingers at each other.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, if the faction leader was blackmailed on Night 0 then he will count as an assassin for purposes of the 1:1 ratio. I asked that question earlier. However, I'm hoping we will have some ideas about this from voting tally when points are awarded/removed.

Also, I think I flip-flopped my name/execute. Just to be safe ...

UNVOTE DUBB93 EXECUTE
VOTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST EXECUTE

[Mr. Wednesday]

UNVOTE DUBB93 JAIL
VOTE BLADE6119 JAIL

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Vince

hoops -- not sure if this will change your vote at all, but here are my thoughts on the factions.

Two different possibilities here --

• 2 Factions: 7, 7 and 4 Assassins.
• 3 Factions: 5, 5, 5 and 3 Assassins.

I have come to the conclusion that there are 3 different factions, and the assassins. Four assassins to start seems incredibly stacked towards the assassins, as they are assured of at least 2 possible converts (Fast Talkers) and one potential blackmail, making a total of 7 Assassins possible at one time. I think that's just too much.

Just got home and as I was catching up I found this post. I am also inclined to believe that there are 3 factions. Just seems more likely for game balance purposes.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, my vote had nothing to do with you/AE except to state that I was initially going to look in another direction in order to generate some new conversation. Thus I cast a vote on Dubb based on the 'no second on faction leader statement' logic. Conversation generated, I'm now feeling fairly confident of his noble status - or at least able to link him to other players if he is an assassin. So I moved on to look at further comments and stumbled across that post/vote from AE that disturbed me.

I would now expect that AE would respond. Perhaps by saying he is a Dreamweaver

[hoopsguy]

King, on that post by Vince:

1.) The size of the factions don't have to be even, particularly if the capabilities of the factions give one an advantage over the other.
2.) Two Fast Talkers can only be converted if they are killed by the wolves rather than lynched by the nobles/wolves. The odds of them getting both are not especially high unless we only jail people while the wolves kill people.

[kingfc22]

I really don't have a good read on any of the vote leaders today. I don't want to cast a "deciding" vote that will come back to haunt me later in the game.

So for now VOTE DUBB JAIL

[hoopsguy]

Ties will be decided based on the first vote cast (votes which are unvoted and reinstated are counted at the time of the reinstatement).

MrW, in changing your vote you have just changed the lynch from McSweeny to Blade if it holds up. Just making sure you understand that as it is a pretty significant vote. Not telling you to change it, but would have loved to see some explanation for it.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I really don't have a good read on any of the vote leaders today. I don't want to cast a "deciding" vote that will come back to haunt me later in the game.

So for now VOTE DUBB JAIL

That is going to hurt your faction in long run(points). Keep in mind in this game more than any other you have to make every vote count. I would dig through the thread a little more and make your vote count.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - here is how I show the votes as of Post #222:

Post #96 Blade votes EXECUTE MRW
Post #102 Cronin votes EXECUTE AE
Post #136 Vince votes EXECUTE BLADE
Post #140 Coffee votes EXECUTE BLADE
Post #142 Pass votes EXECUTE BLADE
Post #154 Vince unvotes, votes EXECUTE MRW
Post #155 Dubb votes JAIL MCSWEENY
Post #170 Hoopsguy votes EXECUTE DUBB
Post #176 GWB votes EXECUTE MCSWEENY
Post #181 Coffee unvotes, votes EXECUTE MCSWEENY
Post #196 Ardent votes EXECUTE BLADE
Post #197 Saldana votes EXECUTE MCSWEENY
Post #198 MrW votes JAIL DUBB
Post #200 McSweeny votes EXECUTE BLADE
Post #201 Schmidty votes JAIL DUBB
Post #202 RPI votes EXECUTE MCSWEENY
Post #209 Taz votes JAIL BLADE
Post #217 Hoopsguy unvotes, votes EXECUTE AE
Post #218 MrW unvotes Dubb, votes JAIL BLADE
Post #222 King votes JAIL DUBB

MRW - Blade (E), Vince (E)
AE - Cronin (E), Hoopsguy (E)
Blade - Pass (E), Ardent (E), McSweeny (E), Taz (J), MrW (J)
McSweeny - Dubb (J), GWB (E), Coffee (E), Saldana (E), RPI (E)
Dubb - Schmidty (J), King (J)

[st.cronin]

Please take your vote off Blade, guys. I don't think he's an assasin, *or* a faction leader. We need to talk about somebody else.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Please take your vote off Blade, guys. I don't think he's an assasin, *or* a faction leader. We need to talk about somebody else.

How are you so sure, and who else do we need to talk about?

[hoopsguy]

FWIW I don't have any feel for Blade's faction, but I'm intrigued enough by his play that I would prefer to have him live and see where he heads tomorrow morning.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by dubb93

That is going to hurt your faction in long run(points). Keep in mind in this game more than any other you have to make every vote count. I would dig through the thread a little more and make your vote count.

+.5 points for any person voting to free a member of his faction from jail
+1.5 point for the first person to vote to send an assassin to jail
+1.5 point for the “lynching” vote to send an assassin to jail.
-.5 points for the first person to vote to send a noble to jail
-.5 points for the “lynching” vote to send a noble to jail

I'm not the first to vote for you and I'm not the "lynch" vote, so unless I'm reading the rules wrong I don't see how I'm hurting my faction.

[hoopsguy]

Just found/remembered this while re-reading the rules:

His vote carries twice the weight for determining if a person is jailed or executed

So our tie may not really be a tie.

[hoopsguy]

I would love to hear some discussion on Ardent, since I voted for him and made a case for why I did in Post #215.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by dubb93

How are you so sure, and who else do we need to talk about?

His early play was odd and aggressive, but definitely *not* wolf-like. I suppose he might be a faction leader, but I think it's more likely that he's a special noble of some sort ... in which case we want him alive.

How about somebody who hasn't been that active??

UNVOTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST EXECUTE

VOTE JAIL GEORGE W. BUSH

I also think jail is our friend, even at this point. I just am not convinced we need to kill somebody.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

+.5 points for any person voting to free a member of his faction from jail
+1.5 point for the first person to vote to send an assassin to jail
+1.5 point for the “lynching” vote to send an assassin to jail.
-.5 points for the first person to vote to send a noble to jail
-.5 points for the “lynching” vote to send a noble to jail

I'm not the first to vote for you and I'm not the "lynch" vote, so unless I'm reading the rules wrong I don't see how I'm hurting my faction.

True, but if you re-read the thread I think I've been cleared

Anyway, I think after today I'm going to vote to lynch for the following reason:

Just as I did today, it's easy to summarize the post your leader gave you and have someone back you up on it. I see no problem with known nobles, although it may be best to keep it secret untill you need it. Obviously if it came to it, many of us could back up our leader.

If the assassins want to vouche for each other that is their own decision, but it will only save them a day and get an extra one of them killed. I guess what I'm saying, is if you are a noble in this game and stupid enough to get executed, I don't feel sorry for excuting you.

Obviously once 1 PM has been summarized, it becomes more of a crap shoot to decide if someone is telling the truth, but at this point I have knocked my list of potential assassins down by nearly 1/4.

[Passacaglia]

Vince, yes, three total. The leader, me, and one other.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by dubb93

True, but if you re-read the thread I think I've been cleared

Anyway, I think after today I'm going to vote to lynch for the following reason:

Just as I did today, it's easy to summarize the post your leader gave you and have someone back you up on it. I see no problem with known nobles, although it may be best to keep it secret untill you need it. Obviously if it came to it, many of us could back up our leader.

If the assassins want to vouche for each other that is their own decision, but it will only save them a day and get an extra one of them killed. I guess what I'm saying, is if you are a noble in this game and stupid enough to get executed, I don't feel sorry for excuting you.

Obviously once 1 PM has been summarized, it becomes more of a crap shoot to decide if someone is telling the truth, but at this point I have knocked my list of potential assassins down by nearly 1/4.

If we are going to use this strat, it is important that no one summarize their PM unless their head is on the chopping block.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Vince, yes, three total. The leader, me, and one other.

What are you refering to Pass?

[hoopsguy]

Pass, are you referring in Post #234 to your circle of trust?

If I'm making correct assumptions across the board (probably not, but hopefully very close) then I have a reasonable feel for over half of the nobles in a two faction game. If it is a three faction game then I've counted 1-2 people on a faction based on a bad read of their 'tell'.

[Desnudo]

Sorry, I was in meetings all day. I think there might have a been a flub up with my role that may disqualify me, so Barkeep, please check a PM.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

What are you refering to Pass?

Sorry. In a MUCH earlier post, Vince asked about my contention that there were exactly three in my faction, including the leader and myself. I said that this is true.

I'm thinking we're way off-base with the 2 or 3 factions. We could be looking at 4 or 5.

[Passacaglia]

hoops, can you explain why you voted for AE?

[hoopsguy]

Pass, re-post from #215:

Post #196 from AE:

Quote:
I will now vote. Blade, this has absolutely nothing to do with you.

Vote Blade6119 execute



OK, if it has nothing to do with Blade then it should have something to do with following votes from your peers? But at the time you cast the vote the only person that I saw who still had their vote on Blade was Passacaglia.

There have been two votes that followed, but those should not have factored into your thinking. So are you suggesting that you know you are aligned with Passacaglia?

For what it is worth here, I don't think I'm doing the work of the werewolfs in flushing out a faction leader in Pass. I'm pretty suspicious that this is a wolf trying to dump a vote on a non-wolf on Day 1. Pretty typical WW play ...

So I know that I had posted earlier that I wasn't intending to cast my vote in the direction of one of the initial four pointing at each other (AE/Cronin and Blade/MrW) but I'm growing more convinced on the re-reads that Dubb is a member of a faction and not an assassin.

UNVOTE EXECUTE DUBB93
VOTE EXECUTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I also think jail is our friend, even at this point. I just am not convinced we need to kill somebody.

Read my last post on jail. I think someone we need to look at(and he's going to be pissed at me for doing this) is Saldana for tomorrow. I can't place him in a faction for the life of me and that makes his vote for McSweeney all the more puzzling. It is odd to call suspecision on me, and then go ahead and vote for the guy I'm voting for.

Also up there are Schmidty and King. They can't figure out that the hint stick was flogging them after(and in some cases) before they voted for me. If McSweeney is lynched and he's innocent Saldana is a good place to start tomorrow, he can always clear himself with his PM. I have a good feel for everyone else that is on McSweeney.

[hoopsguy]

Dubb, I have a high level of confidence in one person on that list in Post #242. And there isn't one person that you have listed that rates as highly suspicious on my 'wolf' list.

Just want to make sure that is out there in the event that I run into a knife this evening ...

[Mr. Wednesday]

For better or for worse, I just feel like we're jumping on McSweeny unfairly. Hopefully, I'm putting Blade in jail, not getting him killed.

[McSweeny]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Read my last post on jail. I think someone we need to look at(and he's going to be pissed at me for doing this) is Saldana for tomorrow. I can't place him in a faction for the life of me and that makes his vote for McSweeney all the more puzzling. It is odd to call suspecision on me, and then go ahead and vote for the guy I'm voting for.

Also up there are Schmidty and King. They can't figure out that the hint stick was flogging them after(and in some cases) before they voted for me. If McSweeney is lynched and he's innocent Saldana is a good place to start tomorrow, he can always clear himself with his PM. I have a good feel for everyone else that is on McSweeney.

it's pretty obvious that they're just piling on me in hopes to avoid future detection. so after i'm lynched and proven to be innocent, the bandwagon jumpers will say something like "well i was just going along with everyone's logic", and yet as you say it is indeed quite odd to call you out and then vote for the same person you are

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, this being day 1, the reasons for voting for someone are either a) seer/witness/etc. reveal (unusual), b) blind luck, c) intuition, d) being a bad guy. We've had all sorts of mutterings of a) out there, but nothing I feel comfortable sorting out (mainly because it accuses me ), and I know I'm not d), which leaves b) or c). I'm going with c) today.

[hoopsguy]

Intuition = Blade as bad guy
or
Intuition = McSweeny is not bad guy?

[Coffee Warlord]

By the way, suggestion for the faction leaders. It might be nice to include whether you are protected during evens or odds phase in tonight's PM. Can't hurt to know.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm not convinced Blade is a bad guy, and I'm hopefully getting him in jail, not killing him. I just don't really get the rush to hang McSweeny, I'm not really getting that kind of vibe from his statements and I have some bad memories of rushes to judgement on days 1 of yore.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I'm not convinced Blade is a bad guy, and I'm hopefully getting him in jail, not killing him. I just don't really get the rush to hang McSweeny, I'm not really getting that kind of vibe from his statements and I have some bad memories of rushes to judgement on days 1 of yore.

You do know a kill on night 1 could have been invaluable. For 1, it would have posted all the factions point totals. If you have the factions down reasonably well, you could then deduce if any faction hit on an assassin. Any kills from now on will have tainted point totals(IE more than 1 night of votes to go by).

I'll admit that at the start of the day I wasn't thinking like this, and my vote is still for jail, but there became no point in changing it with the votes for McSweeney all coming in for lynch.