WW CLVI - Clue: Master Detective - GAME OVER! MURDERERS WIN! (Post 1817)

[Danny]

I have to admit, I am a little surprised Chief voted Jag.

[Coffee Warlord]

5 - britrock
5 - Chubby
4 - murrayyyy
3 - JAG
2 - Chief Rum
1 - path12

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I have to admit, I am a little surprised Chief voted Jag.

It was a placeholder vote. I wanted to see what would happen with a fourth candidate out there. It won't stay there. But I haven't decided where to go yet either.

Personally, I like both murrayyyyy and britrock88 to remain in the game. But I'm not going to hide from the vote and go elsewhere unless another candidate makes themselves available.

[Chief Rum]

Oh, I should say, I am not wild about Chubby as a candidate either. But of course, no one has done anything overtly suspicious yet, so I suppose a choice must be made at some point.

[Chubby]

I'd prefer not to have to move off of murrayyyyyy just yet but will out of self preservation

[Chief Rum]

Okay, so let's play the assumption game.

Let's ASSUME fontisian is telling the truth and all Big Six have a similar ability level to hers. They each have one time kill attempts that could make them murderers.

So let's think about this. I am also going to assume that Mr. Green's target is one of the 13 in the house at the start, just like the other Big Six.

That means we have six Big Six "shots", with a 1/12 chance per shot (13 in the house minus that Big Six player himself/herself) of being successful and turning that Big Six into a murderer.

If every Big Six player takes that 1/12 shot at random, they have an 11/12 chance of missing their Informant. My quick math says the chance all six miss is (11/12)^6 == about a 59% chance they all miss. That means it is unlikely their actions without further info will be successful and turn one of them into a murderer.

Now in actuality, their odds get better as they follow the thread and make a reasonable determination of who is not likely to be their Informant. Plus, the lynches will remove targets as well. And even as we add Extra Roles, the potential Informant target pool will only remain the same or get smaller. So let's say that while on average, it's unlikely nay one of them will have success, it is actually quite likely with the improved odds that at least one will have a successful kill.

Point is, CW has to plan for those odds in his game balance. If all Big Six start as non-murderers with a chance to become murderers, he can only really consider one murderer as likely to come from that group.

But we know murderers exist in this game already. Would a Big Six start as a murderer at all? This makes me wonder. I am thinking now that the Informants and the Extras are likely to be our pool of original murderers in the house (with 2-3 coming in one by one with the Extra Roles).

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by JAG

font, only issue I have with your reveal is we don't know if there are any other means by which you could be converted, in which case you may have helped the murderers' side out inadvertently even though you want to remain on the non-murderer's side.

Other concern, I suppose, is that your target might have some ability to act against you as well.

[Chubby]

I don't know that'd I'd rule out Big Six as starting murderers.

Mr Green goes after Mr Boddy? (never watched the movie so don't know any backstory)

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by fontisian

My power basically consists of "pick a player to kill and hope they meet the requirements." If they don't, nothing happens and my one-shot ability is wasted. Maybe CW will tell me some more info later, but for now that's all I know.

huh? why would you "hope to kill someone" if your a villager and not a wolf? this is weird

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Other concern, I suppose, is that your target might have some ability to act against you as well.

This could be true. I think having one reveal so that we all have an idea of the original 6 ability may not be a bad thing, but I definitely dont think all of them should start revealing.

[Danny]

And since we have that one reveal, probably should not have any more

[Autumn]

That's interesting, that's not how I imagined the ability would work. Only one shot each, with no chance to search for the informant. Huh. And it sounds like whether or not they are converted depends on something to do with the informant. I'll have to ponder on what that might be.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

That's interesting, that's not how I imagined the ability would work. Only one shot each, with no chance to search for the informant. Huh. And it sounds like whether or not they are converted depends on something to do with the informant. I'll have to ponder on what that might be.

My take on fontisian's explanation is that the conditions relate to whether a non-specific Informant target would die. I didn't sense there was any doubt that if she were to kill her Informant, she would be converted to a murderer.

[Chief Rum]

I may come to regret this, but I am going to switch my vote now, since I will be leaving for the second job shortly.

Between britrock and Chubby, I feel that britrock has had a good run of late as a wolf two times running, and Chubby has oodles of WW experience. Brit has played well, too, but in a complicated game like this, I think Chubby's experience with our massive games is a factor to consider. So I'm switching to britrock.

UNVOTE JAG

VOTE BRITROCK88

[Coffee Warlord]

With just over an hour to go...

6 - britrock
5 - Chubby
4 - murrayyyy
2 - JAG
2 - Chief Rum
1 - path12

[saldana]

lets keep it interesting
unvote JAG
vote Murrayyyyyyyyyyy

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I think I am going to vote for murrayyyyy, mainly because he was a wolf last game and kicked the village's collective butt by playing so well.

Vote murrayyyyy

Originally Posted by Danny

I will actively vote to help make sure Murray does not get voted out. I would prefer not to lynch him day 1 in his second game.

To be 100% honest I would vote for me too. Damn straight I'm a dangerous player for it being my first game. Three players (and Chief) know how I play and can probably vouch for me. Plus I was crazy enough to try a suicide mission to end the last game.

Don't hold back a vote to keep me active because it's only my 2nd game. I'll be around for the next game(and probably more my style being conventional). Plus someone's gotta go first. I won't get mad, it's a mini sign of respect. In the last game the group was vocal about who they wanted gone quickly because of how they played so I figured they were the best players.

[Chief Rum]

Okay, folks, I am out until well past deadline. Good luck!

[Danny]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

To be 100% honest I would vote for me too. Damn straight I'm a dangerous player for it being my first game. Three players (and Chief) know how I play and can probably vouch for me. Plus I was crazy enough to try a suicide mission to end the last game.

Don't hold back a vote to keep me active because it's only my 2nd game. I'll be around for the next game(and probably more my style being conventional). Plus someone's gotta go first. I won't get mad, it's a mini sign of respect. In the last game the group was vocal about who they wanted gone quickly because of how they played so I figured they were the best players.

But Id like to see what you can do as a villager

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Danny

But Id like to see what you can do as a villager

You assume I'm a villager...

[Danny]

lol, you may not be, but % chance says you are. And I dont get a wolfy vibe from the way you are acting now.

[Danny]

Pretty funny though that you are trying to talk me into voting for you. I wonder if maybe you have some sort of ability related to that.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Danny

Pretty funny though that you are trying to talk me into voting for you. I wonder if maybe you have some sort of ability related to that.

[britrock88]

You guys...

[Danny]

YOU RANG???

[Danny]

40 minutes until deadline

[Danny]

6 - britrock
5 - Chubby
5 - murrayyyy
1 - JAG
2 - Chief Rum
1 - path12

[murrayyyyy]

And Dusty Rhodes re-enters the ring (oh wait, wrong thread)

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

And Dusty Rhodes re-enters the ring (oh wait, wrong thread)

[bulletsponge]

hey wheres my vote? i voted for Chief rummy

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by britrock88

You guys...

Come on Brit, what's wrong with putting a little doubt in peoples minds... Wait is that doubt that I'm a wolf or a villager... or if I have special powers... crap now I have doubts.

[bulletsponge]

post 216, i voted for chief rum

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

post 216, i voted for chief rum

Finally someone else screwed up the vote. Kill them!

[Danny]

I just copied it from Coffee Warlord.

[Coffee Warlord]

Did I screw up the vote?

[Danny]

So Britrock figures to tie it up with Chubby or Murray

[Danny]

We're getting close, so I am going to try and avoid shenanigans.

Unvote chubby
vote britrock

[Coffee Warlord]

Nope, I did not screw up the vote.

[Coffee Warlord]

7 - britrock
5 - murrayyyy
4 - Chubby
2 - Chief Rum
1 - JAG
1 - path12

[DaddyTorgo]

Let's make it interesting...

VOTE MURRAYYY

[Danny]

Daddy as long as you realize that brit can tie it up.

[britrock88]

Unvote JAG
Vote murrayyyyy

I don't know about murrayyyyy, but he can't be a worse lynch than I.

[Chubby]

unvote murrayyyyy
vote britrock

[murrayyyyy]

so it's Brit 8 me 6?

[Danny]

8 - britrock
6 - murrayyyy
4 - Chubby
2 - Chief Rum
1 - path12

[murrayyyyy]

UNVOTE CHUBBY

holding vote for Brit if I need to

[Danny]

8 - britrock
6 - murrayyyy
3 - Chubby
2 - Chief Rum
1 - path12

[Danny]

Chubby sure wiggled his way out of this vote!

[britrock88]

No kidding. Is that worth switching back?

[Coffee Warlord]

Jesus christ.