Top 5 Stock Picks

[SportsDino]

Ya, 500% is a great return on 3 years. Hell, I'm rebalancing my long-term portfolio anyway so I might as well buy a small share.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I also picked up some GenVen today.

I got HGSI at $30.90, BNVI at $0.51, and GNVC at $1.49. I think the BioTech stocks will do well this year. Just a feeling.

Sooo....GenVen has gone up 100.67% in 11 (trading) days. Not too bad. I bought some more GenVen (GNVC) at $2.55 a share this morning. This is what it did this week:

Tuesday: $1.94 (+10.23%)
Wednesday: $2.20 (+13.40%)
Thursday: $2.39 (+8.64%)
Friday: $2.99 (+25.10%)

So what happened?

Some of it may have been last week's announcement that the 184th death occurred from their pancreatic cancer study. The 184th death was predicted to happen last November.

Tuesday GenVen announced that they will collaborate with Novartis on hearing loss treatments. In the deal, Novartis gives them $5M cash and buys $2M worth of stock. Additionally GenVen can receive up to $213.6M if certain milestones are met.

Brown also won in MA, which doesn't hurt.

Today GenVen announced results of a trial study that in the 24 patients with esophageal cancer receiving TNFerade in combination with chemo, the median survival was 47.7 months. Median survival from other historical clinical trials in similar stage disease ranged from 9.7 to 34 months.

I'm sticking with it for a bit.

[Flasch186]

I bought more of my short position on Tues which was simply dumb luck

[albionmoonlight]

Was the Equity Premium an Artifact of the Great Depression? - Business - The Atlantic

Felix Salmon has made a big splash with his argument that now is a good time to sell stocks because they're volatile. My first instinct is to say that this doesn't much matter for people under the age of fifty. As long as you're putting a consistent amount of money in your 401(k), over time, it won't matter; you'll get more growth than bonds, and even though the market moves around, what you lose on the swings you'll make up on the roundabouts. You'll probably need to give more attention to when you should start shifting your portfolio towards bonds than you would in a less volatile market, but in the meantime, you'll still enjoy the benefits of growth in the stock market.

That presumes, however, that there's still a substantial equity premium--which is to say, that stock returns will, on average, substantially exceed the returns on debt. That assumption is based on 100 years of evidence. But just because something was true for 100 years, doesn't mean it will be true forever.

In fact, stock prices have the odd characteristic of many financial assets: if everyone thinks that something is true, then it's no longer true. Efficient markets types tell us to invest in indexes because you can't beat the market--but if everyone invested in indices, the market wouldn't be efficient, and you could. Portfolio theorists tell us that investing in a broad portfolio of stocks will yield a substantial annual return in excess of the return on US treasuries--but if everyone believes that stocks aren't really much riskier than bonds, then they'll bid up the prices until there's little excess yield.

And indeed, one way to look at the great 1982-2000 stock market boom is that it represented the erosion of the equity premium. And one way to explain that is demographic: the stock market began to boom when the generations that had lived through the Great Depression as adults began to die off.

Before the twentieth century, stocks were in many ways an immature financial instrument; they should have carried a premium, because they were risky. As the twentieth century wore on, they matured--thanks in part to the New Deal era reforms that toughened up on disclosure and market rules for buying and selling shares in public companies. But the generation who lived through the Great Depression still thought of the stock market as speculative. There was a personal, social, and political shift towards less direct forms of saving for the future, such as corporate and government pensions, and life insurance products.

Unfortunately, those aren't actually risk free either; we saw, catastrophically, the risk inherent in private pensions in the 1970s, and are now discovering the same thing about public pensions in our generation. So there was a global shift back towards the stock market as an appropriate vehicle for private investment. Meanwhile, while individual stocks remained both risky and volatile, more and more people were turning to indexing and mutual funds, which smooths out those variations. People who might have demanded an equity premium for holding an individual stock didn't need such a big one As people stopped thinking of equity as the "speculative" investment, the equity premium may have been eaten away.

And of course, ironically, if the equity premium diminishes, in the short term, that means that the price of stocks jumps--making them look like an even better, and less risky, investment.

Or at least, that's one plausible reading of this chart: there's a bubble, there's a correction, but because the correction isn't accompanied by a banking crisis the way it was in 1929, there's no huge overcorrection where everyone gets shut of stocks for a few decades. So what you get is a market where expected future growth is fully priced in, and there's no substantial premium for holding equity over debt. So all that's left is volatility--stocks bouncing around in a mostly uncorrelated fashion that evens out over time, marked by a few unhappy moments when there's some major market event and everything heads in the same direction at the same time.

If the equity premium is substantially diminished, or even gone entirely, then there's no reason to favor stocks as much as most people do, other than as a way to hedge the inflation risk of your bond investments. If that's true, then it really might be time to sell.

[SportsDino]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Was the Equity Premium an Artifact of the Great Depression? - Business - The Atlantic

People investing in stuff they don't understand pretty much deserve what they get. Stocks should be a risky investment, tied directly to the success or failure of firms, and yes I know its blasphemy, should be based on dividend expectations (also known as cash!).

Sadly, we don't have a stock market, we have a casino that loosely reflects reality, so I have to resort to strategies with that in mind. I'd much prefer a true investment based stock market, and it may be necessary for the survival of the economy in the long run (the speculative market might abuse the sheep too much to be sustained). There really is no guarantee what is going to happen over the next 50 years, as it is if there is any sort of slide I'm setup to liquidate to cash. I'm just hoping we don't get a 'Black 3PM' style crash where the computers sell us all into oblivion faster than I can realize its a real crash and can get out (in theory there are safeguards for this, but the latest incident is showing plenty of weakness in them).

[Logan]

Originally Posted by SportsDino

People investing in stuff they don't understand pretty much deserve what they get.

Yeah I think the actuality of how people view the stock market is contrary to the article's premise of "if everything thinks something is true, it's no longer true/everyone buys and holds." People look to get rich quick and find the next big thing. It's amazing how people will spend a week googling and reading Consumer Report articles before finally deciding on which dishwasher to go with, but will go completely against that once their buddy from the coffee shop tells them about the potential of company X.

[Raiders Army]

Lost money. I'm down about 66%.

[BishopMVP]

That presumes, however, that there's still a substantial equity premium--which is to say, that stock returns will, on average, substantially exceed the returns on debt. That assumption is based on 100 years of evidence. But just because something was true for 100 years, doesn't mean it will be true forever.

When I interned at a Raymond James branch under my uncle, his overriding philosophy/selling point to clients was that these models look great over 100 years, but it's easy to find 20 year periods where the stock market went up less than inflation.

Stocks can be fun, will swing the odds in your favor if you know what you are doing, and will generally offer slightly better returns long term, but I think the last couple years have proven that you can't predict the "100 year" events that can destroy a retirement plan - so similar to gambling it's only worth playing with money you can afford to lose. (Unless you can reverse-engineer the algorithms that a big trading house uses, in which case you could fleece them - and I do believe that will happen sooner or later.)

[SportsDino]

Shhhh..... the big trading houses might be listening!

Just kidding, but seriously though I've gotten so used to analyst/CNBC/leaked press setups that anything that flies obviously against my own model usually results in a quick buy/short on a small scale to attempt to exploit it. The systematic squeeze that the industry is putting on the casual or over-excited daytraders is so transparent after a while that you can make decent money simply counter-gaming it.

My anti-Jim Cramer short-term profile does better than most managed funds with only trivial thought put into it (and trivial money). My fictional Jim Cramer long profile is surprisingly positive though, apparently even he can't make you lose money overall on a long enough market upswing!

The basic assumption to play with is that the stock market is a casino, and like any good casino, you gotta figure out how the house fixes the game. There is still some connection to performance, but its so exagerated and out of touch with reality that even I can't claim the market is rational or efficient. Basically good news is correlated with ups, bad news is correlated with downs, and scope is loosely correlated and often out of proportion. For instance, a company can miss a profit estimate by a few pennies per share and that is considered cause for a multi-dollar per share drop... but it could have significantly improved its debt situation in the same time and that goes ignored. Another company can beat its estimate by a few pennies per share, and balloon in debt, but goes up a dollar per share.

No statistical model accurately predicts the stocks out there right now. Too much psychology in the way, so I merely try to predict trends and whether news on average will be good or bad in the near term future. Under such a system, companies that have healthy setups still end up with higher prices, simply because they have less headlines overall indicating they are inches away from disaster.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Was the Equity Premium an Artifact of the Great Depression? - Business - The Atlantic

The premise of the article is interesting and kindof cuts a little to the "great debate" my wife and I have had with regards to what to do with our long term savings (401k, etc). Frankly, neither of us can see a good way this ends up in the long term for our lifetime. And, at the end of the day, I really do think we're so much closer to triggering a dark age or at least some sort of catastrophic societal meltdown than anyone wants to admit. Explanation forthcoming below.

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Stocks can be fun, will swing the odds in your favor if you know what you are doing, and will generally offer slightly better returns long term, but I think the last couple years have proven that you can't predict the "100 year" events that can destroy a retirement plan - so similar to gambling it's only worth playing with money you can afford to lose. (Unless you can reverse-engineer the algorithms that a big trading house uses, in which case you could fleece them - and I do believe that will happen sooner or later.)

These events are happening with more regularity than every 100 years, particularly as we keep picking apart market regulation. A big problem seems to be that everyone at this point is tied up in this "game" of sorts. Seemingly everyone's retirement is tied up in this giant scheme so you can't really unravel it. Frankly, I'd love to see an end to the stock market but that never will happen barring, again, some sort of societal collapse.

Your parenthetical situation is already happening. It seems as if there is "fast money" and "slow money" in my mind. Slow money is that which makes up most of our retirements. It is based on the article's premise that in the long run, you'll be better off with the stock market so you accept the risk and buy there. I've been to those groups that make those trades, tho- it's basically students just out of college doing the trading before the good ones move onto bigger and better things.

In the meantime, over the last 10 years, trading tools have exponentially increased in sophistication and it has been very easy to siphon money out of that slow money. So that extra money that you should get for risking your capital is just flying out the window to some parasites who really contribute nothing to the market except the ability to act quickly.

And, now SD- I've gotta ask you because I really have no idea and the above is a genuine concern to me going forward and I think this is the sort of thing you think about on a daily basis

At the end of the day, where does that leave the slow money? If all of their risk premium is being pulled out of the market, why even play? You'll make money for a while but you have to try and time the market, a fool's game, to avoid these crazy pitfalls because the only way you can really make money is to either accurately predict the upswings to make more money when things are going well or avoid the downswings.

However, if you end up in something steady- say, treasury bonds- you'll be lagging behind even inflation and be losing money. I mean, there's pretty much no risk there because if the government isn't paying out on their debt, we probably all have a lot bigger problems than what is happening to our 401K.

So, long term- what can you do if you're "slow money"?

SI

[flere-imsaho]

I'm "slow money", and here's what I do:

1. Invest in index funds that index emerging markets, because that's where the growth is going to be, long-term.

2. Invest in holding companies run by people who a) pick their investments well and b) also get involved in the companies in which they invest. See LUK, FRFHF, BAM for example (the great grand-daddy being BRK, of course).

3. Sporadically invest in a stock of a company whose business you know and you personally feel is undervalued. I know the pharma and tech industries fairly well, so I've occasionally bought some shares in companies I felt were beaten down or had good products in the pipeline about which the press hadn't yet reported on. Plus, I've put money into F & C when they were even more beaten down than now because I felt both would turn things around.

Ignore the short-term casino, focus on long-term value and growth. If global financial armageddon comes, your money won't be safe no matter where it is.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Here's a quick stab at things. Not getting on top of the mountain and predicting what's going to happen with everything... just picking a few stocks, that's all.

- - - - -

Caterpillar (CAT)

Not exactly a “stimulus package” play (I think any reasonable effect of a stim program is already built into prices, sadly), but rather a pretty standard cyclical play. With the economy and real estate both massive depressed, this construction-related blue chip is trading at embarrassingly low ratios – right now its P/E ratio is around 7, that’s just silly (earnings may dent that short term, admittedly). This company is **not** going out of business. The dividend is not a firm one from year to year – but at today’s rates, that itself is around a 4% yield at today’s prices of around $40. Highway robbery for what sits right now as a great value stock.

Forecast: eventually the world starts building shit again, and we need big rigs to move dirt around. CAT makes them. Stock goes to $56 or better in two years, and the dividend is pretty secure.


Hecla Mining (HL)

In the wake of a commodities meltdown, I think there’s real value in a number of related stocks. Precious metals took a massive thumping last year (full disclosure: I suffered) and mining stocks seemed to take a double whammy from not only a loss in the commodity price, but also a sell-of effect just by virtue of being equities. Where does that leave a silver and copper mining company like Hecla? Looking at a $11/oz price for silver, and wondering what the hell happened to them? This is a well run company where I’m already very long, but I see the current price in the $2.20-2.40 range being a complete steal. The gold/silver price ratio is too high, that usually means that silver is heading upwards… but even if silver stays at $11-12 an ounce for the next two years, Hecla should be at $3.50 rather than $2.25.

Forecast: ups and downs in the short run (profitable themselves if you move on both) but this thing has a bounce-back in the next 18 months, and should end 2009 over $3.00, possibly over $4.00.


Cedar Fair (FUN)

My bias is strong here, as I grew up practically in the shadows of their flagship amusement park and worked summers there. But the company has a lot going for it – among the operators of regional amusement parks, they are the one who obviously “gets it” and offers the best mix of entertainment, rides, food, and (underrated) appearance/cleanliness.

This is also a dividend play, almost completely. A share of FUN pays a quarterly dividend of 48 cents – that means you’re getting nearly two bucks a share back in dividends, at a share price right now of only $13. **IF** that remains intact, this is a monstrous yield, completely unsustainable.
There’s a real risk here. The company (a limited partnership) recently bought out Paramount Parks, and did so mostly with leveraged debt, so their books look bad. Their long time CEO is resigning (or just has), and he has been really good. So, it’s possible that this company simply loses its way, slashes its dividend, and the stock price drops to six bucks.

Why like it? Because I like their market position (and I think I understand it). In concept, sure, they lose out when a midwestern family says they can’t afford two hundred bucks for a weekend at Cedar Point this summer due to tight times. But they also make out well when a similar family says they can’t afford twelve hundred for a trip to Disneyland, and so they opt instead to go to a nearby regional attraction like Cedar Point . It’s like Wal-Mart, in a way – neither the top nor the bottom of the ladder, and that’s not too bad in these times.

I also know the driving mentality of this stock… they are a darling of "income investors" and realize that the dividend is essentially sacrosanct. It may not be the smartest move in toto, but I think they want to protect that dividend as best they can for fear of massive investor backlash.

Forecast: 2/3 chance that the company retains its dividends, has a solid 2009, and finishes 2010 with a stock price in the low 20s… 1/3 chance that they are in fairly serious trouble, drop the dividend, and the stock price is halved to 7 by then


Woodward Governor (WGOV)

This NASDAQ listing is somewhere amidst the seas of growth plays, energy plays, and technical plays. I think it has a decent case on each front. They make energy-related equipment, including nearly universal parts for aircraft – a pretty down industry right now. In time, that should promote a cyclical rebound.

However, the area for growth is that their transmission technologies are well suited for… windmills. If you buy the general notion that we have momentum toward renewable energy sources (I do, in part) then this seems like a fruitful area.

On the technical side, the stock is selling at a pretty modest P?E of 13. That’s not criminally low, but if you think this stock has any growth potential, it’s still pretty attractive. The stock price has really been punished of late, and while getting in at around $21 (today’s price) might not be the actual bottom, signs point to this stock heading upwards before long.

Forecast: Immediate future partially tied to oil/gas prices (when they are down, the fervor for alternative energy is lessened) but in the next several years this is a growth company with several reasons to like it – I think it hits $30 by the end of 2010, and has more potential past that, likely back to $40 or better within five years.


Cynosure (CYNO)

A bit of a goofy play here, but I am enamored for two reasons. First, I am becoming an old fart, increasingly out of touch with the young crowd, and thus I just love their company niche – tattoo removal technology.

From a technical standpoint, I also love that they have a ton of cash on their books – fairly odd for a somewhat new company. Even if all that happens is that they get bought out by someone big (and that’s not unthinkable given their balance sheet), that’s still a solid win for a shareholder.

No dividend, no history, nothing to say “solid” but this is an interesting spec play that has a chance to work out really well. Stock price right now is around eight bucks (after a mini-bump the last couple of weeks) and where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.

Forecast: Flip a coin. It could finish 2009 at $6 or $16. Or $36, I suppose. Might need to make that a 20-sided die after all, this thing could land just about anywhere.

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Quick recap:

Caterpillar (CAT)
1/13/09 price = 41.40
1/04/10 price = 58.55

Fairly easy play in retrospect, unless you thought we had a long way down still to go in the recessionary drop. I actually bought at about 36 and again (as it ticked upward) at about 38, and am still in.

Hecla Mining (HL)
1/13/09 price = 2.32
1/04/10 price = 6.47

My biggest regret at this point was the shares I sold off as it ticked up top 3 and 4 dollars on the way to, and past, my "target" price. I'm out now for year-end purposes, but it was a good one this year.

Cedar Fair (FUN)
1/13/09 price = 13.62
1/04/10 price = 11.37

A real roller coaster ride... shaky year, never picked things up during the market boom, announced a shaky forecast for the aforementioned dividend in early Nov and fell off a cliff to under 7. I rode it out, and recently a private equity firm moved to buy it out at 11.50. I rang the register a couple of weeks ago, and am now out.

Woodward Governor (WGOV)
1/13/09 price = 21.69
1/04/10 price = 26.47

Basically a miss, in this environment. I did better with other more conventional energy plays - I still like this company, but I fear its niche might be too clever by half, and its stock price isn't a big value. I'm out.

Cynosure (CYNO)
1/13/09 price = 8.42
1/04/10 price = 11.57

Nice hit. I think it's basically just an adjustment, as the balance sheet of the company was too strong for the stock price that low... I'm still in, but don't have a forecast going forward, really.


S&P
1/13/09 price = 871.79
1/04/10 price = 1132.99
Growth: 30.0%

Quik5
Growth: 52.6%

I'll take that every time.

So, though of this recently, as a couple of these remain in my holdings, and I remember in particular getting flak for my six-week returns. Since I was making a few calls looking at "the end of 2010" in here, I guess I'm a bit late in checking back, but...wonder where are we now.

Caterpillar (CAT)
1/13/09 price = 41.40
1/04/10 price = 58.55
3/11/11 price = 100.02

I am actually looking and take some gain and get out of here soon, I think. Not that I think the economy isn't still on the upswing, but I no longer feel like this price is depressed, and I see more potential elsewhere.

Hecla Mining (HL)
1/13/09 price = 2.32
1/04/10 price = 6.47
3/11/11 price = 9.00

I have been in and out of this stock a good deal since this original thread. Haven't cashed in as fully as I wish I had, but it's been a nice run all told.

Cedar Fair (FUN)
1/13/09 price = 13.62
1/04/10 price = 11.37
3/11/11 price = 19.28

I missed most of the gain here, myself, but this outcome is pretty much what I had been expecting in my 2/3 scenario. Company took a weird path to get there, but seems to be pretty strong again.


Woodward Governor (WGOV)
(now Woodward Inc, WWD)
1/13/09 price = 21.69
1/04/10 price = 26.47
3/11/11 price = 31.89

I have been in and out one more cycle since this original call, but didn't get much out of this one, all told. I think I overestimated their connection to alternative fuels, and also whether that was really a winner to pick in the first place.

Cynosure (CYNO)
1/13/09 price = 8.42
1/04/10 price = 11.57
3/11/11 price = 13.11

Same bottom line as last update: I'm still in, but don't have a forecast going forward, really.


S&P
1/13/09 price = 871.79
1/04/10 price = 1132.99
3/11/11 price = 1304.28
Growth: 49.6%

Quik5
Growth: 114.8%


Basicallly had 3 of 5 that more or less have trended up with the market, and had 2 out of 5 that hit pretty big. My own portfolio hasn't mirrored this, but my "money to fuck around with" segment has done pretty well the last two years, probably up about 80% over the same period, all told.

I am not in the "public picking" world in any way, this thread is the only place I know of where I essentially signed and dated some stock picks and rationales. And no, I rather doubt I'd be reviving the thread if my picks were in the tank.

Anyway... I don't recommend a buy right now on any of these stocks, for what that's worth.

[Pyser]

didnt know this thread existed. im listening if anyone has any thoughts these days

[SportsDino]

Jumped on oil after the Gulf mess, old standby of gold when I got stationary money, lot of commodity based stuff (because I'm ever the inflation doomsayer). Made a bunch off of a massive DIG play I was holding since $30, which I was debating at around $48 but got out over $58.

Not really the best time to buy in my opinion, no outlook for gangbusters growth, but solid companies I think will keep hovering in this range with a small potential for an upward turn if we ever get that damn employment.

Personally, I think we are kind of sliding down a small hill this particular week... if it is any indication I am mostly looking for prices similar to early January to reload. Maybe a touch higher... we are getting close. Maybe end of week. Of course I'm only looking for whatever I can get rid of again in a couple weeks to a month for one of my preferred 5% - 10% hops (you get enough of those in a year and it makes you rich faster than being really smart and picking a 50% growth stock at the start of year and selling it at the end, but it is a lot more work ).

[QuikSand]

A fun stock to watch, if you like playing this game. A southern blue collar retailer Stein Mart. They are suffering some distress (like their whole segment of retail) and their stock price has been mercilessly clobbered for it.

Stein Mart, Inc.: NASDAQ:SMRT quotes & news - Google Finance

I am upside down on this stock at the moment, as I have been buying it on the way down. When they suspended their dividend on Friday, the stock caved in - a typical overreaction from the market. I bought up a pretty sizable (for me) traunch on Monday afternoon, and got the benefit of a big bounce back (+22c) on Tuesday. Am watching this closely now.

My thinking is mostly this -- even is retail is weak overall, I don't think they are a real candidate to simply do belly up and liquidate. I don't believe the stock is going to zero. If they are in true distress, I think the more likely outcome would be that they sell out to private equity - and let someone else (without the burden of family ties, perhaps) try to right the ship. If that happens, we shareholders at least get some premium on our current prices.

But if the company is going to remain alive, then in a year or so, it seems like the proper price is well above a buck and a half. (Opens today at 1.55) I think something over $3.00 is a very, very reasonable target. So... I am watching closely. If you have some spec money to thrown down on a gamble like this... have a look.

[Toddzilla]

I swear this article on Stein Mart was written by a computer:

https://www.newsoracle.com/2017/05/2...rt-inc-smrt-2/

In fact, I bet it's generic copy they can just plug a company in and spit out the data with an article.

That's all I got.

[QuikSand]

The overwhelming share of stock-specific articles on the internet lately are AI generated. Just spitting out various facts from a database and surrounding them with vague template wording. Nothing to see here.

[QuikSand]

Watching the Redfin IPO today. I have buy orders out, but I don't have an in to get it early, and I'm guessing it will get pumped up outside my price range before it's publicly available.

Redfin Corp: NASDAQ:RDFN quotes & news - Google Finance

[Logan]

Nice pop. Assuming you missed out?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Logan

Nice pop. Assuming you missed out?

Yeah, I had a limit order in at 18.50. Missed that, it basically "opened" for the public around $20. I looked for a bit at 20, but it seemed like it was dropping at the time, so I just left my order out there in case it fell that far. Now it's around $21.20 as I write. Money to be made, I just didn't stick with it. Now I still am intrigued (as a medium term play), but am suffering the psychological effects of missing out.

[Logan]

I don't claim to be experienced when it comes to IPOs, but generally speaking, I think it's safer to wait a bit if you don't get in initially/early. Too many people in play on day 1 and there is too much irrational behavior involved.

[Edward64]

Definitely not a pro. Most of my 401K & IRA's are in mutual funds. The stocks and I own are:

(1) Apple
(2) Google
(3) SNSR (speculative ETF on Internet of Things, relatively small %)

FWIW, I can sleep at nights. Have faith that Apple and Google (especially) will recover from any downturns.

[CU Tiger]

Cmi
1/14/09 - 24.52
7/30/117 - 167.22

Pep
1/14/09 - 51.10
7/30/117 - 116.61

Rimm
1/14/09 - 45.10
7/30/17 - 9.72

Bmy
1/14/09 - 22.20
7/30/17 - 55.27

Ge
1/14/09 - 14.10
7/30/17 - 25.52

It's been a good run since my initial post here.I bailed out of Rimm I '11 somewhere around $25...definitely a miss there. Cmi was my big win and I've pulled some profit but still have a a big position there.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Logan

Nice pop. Assuming you missed out?

So, it appears that part of my Friday order actually got filled (at 20.90)... up near $25 today. I think it's bluster, mostly, but I'll take a quick flip like that. Could sell it off today, even.

[QuikSand]

Sold all my RDFN today at around 29.50. No clue if it will keep popping, but I'm taking a 40% gain in three days and pocketing it.

Now, SMRT, on the other hand... wild ride there. Ugh. I am just barely fending off my instinct to continue buying as it goes further down (though up 5c today).

[Logan]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Sold all my RDFN today at around 29.50. No clue if it will keep popping, but I'm taking a 40% gain in three days and pocketing it.

Been following. Nicely done!

[QuikSand]

...RDFN opened today north of 32, another nice bump. There's basically no way to tell what this is going to do short or long term, IMO.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...RDFN opened today north of 32, another nice bump. There's basically no way to tell what this is going to do short or long term, IMO.

I saw the pre-market # but then saw it down into the low 28s, now it's down about 5.5% from the open. Good to get out, or at least take back any original investment and let the profits ride.

[Edward64]

Are the stock pickers on this board doing anything with their positions due to the NK escalation? Anyone moving more towards cash, bonds or gold?

[QuikSand]

Moving in today on Versartis VSAR -- a pharma stock who got totally savaged overnight, as their main offering seems to have failed a major clinical trial. According to the market, the company's value at 4pm yesterday was about 900M, and this morning is about 150M. I'm smelling an overreaction, and am trying to buy today to gain a short term bounceback.

Risky, but it feels like a strong play. I'm in pretty aggressively (for me).

[lungs]

Not a stock... but does anybody have any thoughts on Ripple?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Moving in today on Versartis VSAR

Well, this bet hasn't paid off yet, but I still think that it will. Even cheaper now around $2.50.

[BillyMadison]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Moving in today on Versartis VSAR -- a pharma stock who got totally savaged overnight, as their main offering seems to have failed a major clinical trial. According to the market, the company's value at 4pm yesterday was about 900M, and this morning is about 150M. I'm smelling an overreaction, and am trying to buy today to gain a short term bounceback.

Risky, but it feels like a strong play. I'm in pretty aggressively (for me).

Do they have any other offerings? $22 to $2.50 is a long, long way down.

Recently I have put money in AMD as a beneficiary of the AI/Cryptocurrency boom. I'm also monitoring this company CVNA, an online used car marketplace which is a real disruptor. Really volatile lately but they're growing fast and entering a bunch of markets.

Also long play I'm thinking of taking a position on SMG for exposure to Marijuana. They're developing pesticides for Marijuana growing.

[QuikSand]

Well, if you've put your money along with mine from the last few months, it's been a rough ride. Nice hit on RDFN, but both SMRT and VASR are just leaking cash. I remain fairly optimistic in the medium term on both (and my investment is with long term funds that I don't need anytime soon) but it is tough to be super-wrong in the short term. My Schwab account is just knifing me every day with its prominent display of "unrealized gain/loss" on SMRT especially. Ugh.

Hanging in there on both, though.

[Edward64]

Decided to put some $ into China and bought Tencent, Alibaba and ASHR.

Press seems to be pulling back from all the bubble/crashing talk so figure China is a good long term bet.

[QuikSand]

SMRT looking like it may have touched bottom, and is moving back up. Wish I had bought down at the trough rather than all the way down... but I'm hopeful that this is the beginning of a tempered run back up to something north of $2.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Hecla Mining (HL)

In the wake of a commodities meltdown, I think there’s real value in a number of related stocks. Precious metals took a massive thumping last year (full disclosure: I suffered) and mining stocks seemed to take a double whammy from not only a loss in the commodity price, but also a sell-of effect just by virtue of being equities. Where does that leave a silver and copper mining company like Hecla? Looking at a $11/oz price for silver, and wondering what the hell happened to them? This is a well run company where I’m already very long, but I see the current price in the $2.20-2.40 range being a complete steal. The gold/silver price ratio is too high, that usually means that silver is heading upwards… but even if silver stays at $11-12 an ounce for the next two years, Hecla should be at $3.50 rather than $2.25.

Forecast: ups and downs in the short run (profitable themselves if you move on both) but this thing has a bounce-back in the next 18 months, and should end 2009 over $3.00, possibly over $4.00.

So... I have ridden HL on and off for the last 15 years. I listen to the shareholder meetings, I pay attention.

In the last few days, they have taken a beating, down from $2.20 or so to close at $1.58 today. If you have the ability to sit and wait, I think this is a very strong play at this price range.

The issues of the moment are, quite possibly, transitory. They are having profitability issues right now with one of their major sites. It's not that they can't fig up silver and copper, they are stuck in some bad contracts. And, they are also suffering from metal-based tariff talk - the markets are really spooked about that. I think the drop to the $1.50 range is a substantial overreaction.

My price target, in a medium to long term, is more like... gulp... $3.50. Possibly more. I bought two tranches recently at and then under $2.00, and I am going back for more tomorrow unless it opens really strongly, which I don't expect. I was out of the stock for some time, but I think it has moved into urgent buy territory, and I'm not going to miss it.

The biggest risk I see is that the company could be the target of private equity, who might want to buy the whole thing and force a sale under $2.00 That would presumably mean a nice short term hit, but not the longer term double-or-more that I think this company genuinely has in it.

Originally Posted by QuikSand

A fun stock to watch, if you like playing this game. A southern blue collar retailer Stein Mart. They are suffering some distress (like their whole segment of retail) and their stock price has been mercilessly clobbered for it.

Stein Mart, Inc.: NASDAQ:SMRT quotes & news - Google Finance

I am upside down on this stock at the moment, as I have been buying it on the way down. When they suspended their dividend on Friday, the stock caved in - a typical overreaction from the market. I bought up a pretty sizable (for me) tranche on Monday afternoon, and got the benefit of a big bounce back (+22c) on Tuesday. Am watching this closely now.

My thinking is mostly this -- even is retail is weak overall, I don't think they are a real candidate to simply do belly up and liquidate. I don't believe the stock is going to zero. If they are in true distress, I think the more likely outcome would be that they sell out to private equity - and let someone else (without the burden of family ties, perhaps) try to right the ship. If that happens, we shareholders at least get some premium on our current prices.

But if the company is going to remain alive, then in a year or so, it seems like the proper price is well above a buck and a half. (Opens today at 1.55) I think something over $3.00 is a very, very reasonable target. So... I am watching closely. If you have some spec money to thrown down on a gamble like this... have a look.

Why is this stock down under a dollar again? I don't know. Hoping to clear the time to dig into it tomorrow. Retail is shaky/cyclical, but lower-end retail is actually less shaky overall, as some people react to a bad economy by scaling down from upscale places to joint like Stein Mart. Perhaps more than meets the eye here.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So... I have ridden HL on and off for the last 15 years. I listen to the shareholder meetings, I pay attention.

In the last few days, they have taken a beating, down from $2.20 or so to close at $1.58 today. If you have the ability to sit and wait, I think this is a very strong play at this price range.

The issues of the moment are, quite possibly, transitory. They are having profitability issues right now with one of their major sites. It's not that they can't fig up silver and copper, they are stuck in some bad contracts. And, they are also suffering from metal-based tariff talk - the markets are really spooked about that. I think the drop to the $1.50 range is a substantial overreaction.

My price target, in a medium to long term, is more like... gulp... $3.50. Possibly more. I bought two tranches recently at and then under $2.00, and I am going back for more tomorrow unless it opens really strongly, which I don't expect. I was out of the stock for some time, but I think it has moved into urgent buy territory, and I'm not going to miss it.

Well, the last three weeks were trying. It lost another 15% or so since the 1.58 I mentioned in this post. I decided to buy yet another bundle of it at 1.33. This is the most overweight I have ever been on one stock.

Today was a good rally back to the high 1.40s as I speak, and I hope this means it hit bottom. Short term faith is not very high that's true, I don't know where the bottom might be... I just don't think this stock is still anywhere close to this price in two or three years.

[QuikSand]

...if anyone here was dumb enough to stake stock-picking advice from a football game message board...

Well, you've gotten lucky, but as a rule, don't do that. HL up 20c yesterday, now sitting around 1.94. If you bought at 1.55 or so, you're up around 25% in two months. I still think it's a long term buy, but it want a quick hit and pocket some cash, go for it.

[Edward64]

FWIW, I've been doing dividend ETFs and Mutual Funds.

SCHD and VDIGX have been doing pretty well. I know they may under perform the market some but high quality companies with a dividend track record so I can sleep better during down turns.

Google, Apple & Amazon are the only stocks I own now. Still haven't dipped into bitcoins.

[Edward64]

On a whim, I bought a few shares of SPCE. Rooting for commercialization of space travel (although its too late for me).

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/28/virg...cker-spce.html

Virgin Galactic stock soared Monday as Sir Richard Branson’s space tourism company began trading publicly.

The company listed directly on the NYSE, following the closing of a merger last week with Chamath Palihapitiya’s venture Social Capital Hedosophia.

“Virgin Galactic is making history again today as it becomes the world’s first and only publicly traded commercial human spaceflight company,” CEO George Whitesides said in a statement. “For the first time, anyone will have the opportunity to invest in a human spaceflight company that is transforming the market.”
:
Shares of Virgin Galactic rose as high as $12.93, up more than 9%. The shares were previously listed under the ticker IPOA for Palihapitiya’s special purpose vehicle, which took a 49% stake in Virgin Galactic. Shares of Palihapitiya’s venture closed at $11.79 a share on Friday, up nearly 12% in the past three months.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So... I have ridden HL on and off for the last 15 years. I listen to the shareholder meetings, I pay attention.

In the last few days, they have taken a beating, down from $2.20 or so to close at $1.58 today. If you have the ability to sit and wait, I think this is a very strong play at this price range.

The issues of the moment are, quite possibly, transitory. They are having profitability issues right now with one of their major sites. It's not that they can't fig up silver and copper, they are stuck in some bad contracts. And, they are also suffering from metal-based tariff talk - the markets are really spooked about that. I think the drop to the $1.50 range is a substantial overreaction.

My price target, in a medium to long term, is more like... gulp... $3.50. Possibly more. I bought two tranches recently at and then under $2.00, and I am going back for more tomorrow unless it opens really strongly, which I don't expect. I was out of the stock for some time, but I think it has moved into urgent buy territory, and I'm not going to miss it.

The biggest risk I see is that the company could be the target of private equity, who might want to buy the whole thing and force a sale under $2.00 That would presumably mean a nice short term hit, but not the longer term double-or-more that I think this company genuinely has in it.

HL is up around $2.30 now. If you bought in the $1.50s, you're up 50%. I'm up about 40% on the biggest stock play of my life. Faster than I had guessed. Fundamentals might not be there to ride all the way to $3.50. If you want to bail out now and cash in, go for it.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

On a whim, I bought a few shares of SPCE. Rooting for commercialization of space travel (although its too late for me).

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/28/virg...cker-spce.html

SPCE is down 20+% since I bought it. Good think I didn't put much into it but it goes to show I'm lousy at this. Should have stuck with mutual funds and ETFs.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

SPCE is down 20+% since I bought it. Good think I didn't put much into it but it goes to show I'm lousy at this. Should have stuck with mutual funds and ETFs.

Sounds like right now is a great time to buy!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

SPCE is down 20+% since I bought it. Good think I didn't put much into it but it goes to show I'm lousy at this. Should have stuck with mutual funds and ETFs.

On the other hand, my Apple stock is doing great!

I was thinking about selling some before the new iPhones came out because the predictions were people would wait till next year when 5G came out. But for some reason, they were wrong and Apple is doing great.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

HL is up around $2.30 now. If you bought in the $1.50s, you're up 50%. I'm up about 40% on the biggest stock play of my life. Faster than I had guessed. Fundamentals might not be there to ride all the way to $3.50. If you want to bail out now and cash in, go for it.

Up another 10% since this post... closed at 2.53 today. I'm still in, but may put out some limit sells.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Up another 10% since this post... closed at 2.53 today. I'm still in, but may put out some limit sells.

Holy cow, huge day, up to 2.68 - presumably on market uncertainty (precious metals sometimes get a reverb)... been too tied up to do research, but this feels like a sell-off day for me here.

[QuikSand]

I've sold off a third of my HL at 2.71. Have another limit order in if there's one more upward twitch. Could be playing with house money only soon.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So... I have ridden HL on and off for the last 15 years. I listen to the shareholder meetings, I pay attention.

In the last few days, they have taken a beating, down from $2.20 or so to close at $1.58 today. If you have the ability to sit and wait, I think this is a very strong play at this price range.

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I've sold off a third of my HL at 2.71. Have another limit order in if there's one more upward twitch. Could be playing with house money only soon.

Well, I'm trying to stay on the bright side here. I made enough on this trade to count it in number of paychecks so I shouldn't be as pissed off as I am that I apparently sold way too early. HL at 3.06 this morning. I still hold a chunk, but it's less than half of where I was when i was rising through the 2.00...2.30...2.50...

[QuikSand]

3.29 today, omg