The Heat of South Beach: A Jestorball MP Article Saga (DDSPB 1/2)

[Izulde]

Just a note that I'll be picking this up again soon, but it will have a finite ending as far as this chapter goes.. I'm leaving the NLL once this current season concludes (don't worry, we're about 3 or 4 seasons behind in terms of the article postings so there's a while to go yet before we get there), and under league rules, once a GM leaves, they have to sit out a full season before they can even apply to return.

Chances are, I won't return, because I hate the changes they made to the scouting and draft process so much, I no longer care about the offseason. I hated it last year when they made the switch, but decided to give it another shot. Hated it even more this season with the changes they made.

I'm one of those guys who can only get into a draft if there's a college season accompanying it, and/or monthly mock drafts. Otherwise, the prospects are *shrug* whatever. Historical leagues mitigate this somewhat by giving you an idea of how the players will be, but still.

[Izulde]

Heading into the draft, we all knew John Wall was going #1 to the Dallas Mavericks, and that happened. But the Mavericks also had the #10 pick and they wound up taking Artsiom Parakhouski, the guy from Radford who I wrote an article on earlier. He was a guy I was really hoping would fall to me if I didn't trade up.

And the guy I wanted to trade up for, I ironically tried to trade up for at #10 and every pick after, but failed. And I wasn't the only one trying to move in to get this one particular guy. The archrival Magic were trying to cut in, and so were the Denver Nuggets (You start to see how weird this gets when you consider my overall DDS history). A few other teams were too, I think, though I don't remember who all. I just know he was high on a lot of teams' radars.

Try, try, try, fail, fail, fail.

Then pick #13 comes. The guy everyone is trying to get is still on the board. Orlando is putting sever pressure on the Washington Wizards to force a deal, because that's what Erick does - he browbeats other GMs into making rip off trades that favor him.

Fortunately, the Wizards reject all trade offers he's getting bombarded with and selects...

James Anderson - Oklahoma State.

Cue the cheering and screaming for joy as I run around my upstairs bedroom in the house I share with three roommates. (Fortunately they were all gone at the time so I didn't have to explain myself). Type up the article and shoot out the door for a victory smoke.

With the 14th overall pick in the 2013 NLL Draft, the Miami Heat select...

























There's a picture of the guy here, but I can't access since it's in the archives and it won't let me hit the edit button to get the URL.
G Willie Warren - Oklahoma

There was jubilation and celebration at both Miami Heat parties, one in South Beach at the team arena, the other in Las Vegas at the New York-New York Casino, where a jubilant Jestor danced up a frenzied storm and immediately announced a free roller coaster ride for everyone in attendance.

"We absolutely loved Willie's game when we brought him in for a private workout", beamed Jestor. "It's a bit of risky selection going on such limited scouting perhaps, but we also really liked his performances in the pre-draft camps. He was also rated as a Top 10 pick earlier in the season and in fact we've been trying to trade up ever since pick #10 to get him.

Although we don't know his role on the team just yet, because there's still training camp and all of that to go through, but he'll be a key part of the rotation, perhaps even the starting shooting guard and moving Daequan Cook to SF.

He exemplifies the type of high ceiling ball security, passing ability, shooting accuracy, and high ceiling scoring talent we expect out of an ideal two guard in the Jestorball system."

On the wall behind Jestor was a giant UNLV Rebels flag with the number 31 below Hey Reb, the words Miami Loves Exceptions beside the number.

Some commentators have speculated the confluence of school, number and words, are an obvious reference. Others talked about how Warren's selection will affect the playing time and status of Mike Miller, Anthony Morrow, and free agent Marcus Banks.

***

That wall thing will become important as you'll see in a bit. We also had pick #29 and despite a lot of people jockeying to get to the selection, we ultimately kept it.

With the 29th Overall Pick in the 2013 NLL Draft, the Miami Heat select















Picture/Archive/yaddayadda
PF Michael Washington - Arkansas

Miami Heat GM Jestor's old Razorbacks loyalty came in here, but is this going to be the sort of disastrous late first round Hog pick that Sonny Weems was in Jestor's lone Orlando Magic draft?

"We certainly don't think so", Jestor said from the Heat's draft party in Miami, having flown there from Las Vegas shortly after the acclaimed Willie Warren selection.

"Although we didn't formally scout Michael, we took a look at the league-wide reports and examined his pre-draft camp games, where he showed very good shooting accuracy, an ability to rebound aggressively, and good enough discipline and handling from our vantage point to warrant the selection. I remember seeing his excellent play at the University of Arkansas as well, where he had to play center because of such a small lineup.

More importantly, he gives a huge jolt to our bench big situation. As you all know, after Devon Hardin, our frontcourt depth gets extremely weak. So should something happen to one of our starters, or should something to Devon, we now have Michael to turn to and we're looking forward to seeing his career play out.

Oh, and one more thing. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! PIG SOOIE!"

****

Washington and Rotnei Clarke were the only two guys who didn't suck ass on the Hogs in real life when I was there. Since then, I've made it a policy not to draft Arkansas players, putting them on my Bad College list alongside Minnesota, Yale, and Nevada. The difference between Arkansas and those three schools though, is that I don't mind having a Razorback on the team, even though I ultimately didn't love it in Fayetteville like I do in Las Vegas. I didn't hate it there, either, but it just was not the sort of town I could ever, -ever- see myself living.

Those other three? Forget having one of them on any of my teams - Minnesota because of the Lost Year, Yale because of my still present Princeton loyalty despite the heartbreak every time I see Old Nassau anywhere, and Nevada because fuck UNR - Even if I do go to school again elsewhere, I will always maintain UNLV love and adopt a dual-college loyalty if nothing else.

Anyway, this pick got mixed reviews and I admit I did it blind.

We also had a late 2nd round pick, and obviously at this point, it's flier time.

With the 25th pick in the 2nd round of the 2013 NLL draft, the 55th overall pick, the Miami Heat select...
















Picture should go here, but yeah.
Forward Tasmin Mitchell - LSU

Miami Heat GM Jestor was completely frank about the team's third selection in the draft, just as he was about the debatable Michael Washington selection at #29.

"By this time, every single player we scouted that we had even a remote interest in was gone. It came down to needing some youth for our forward situation, especially since we still don't know how things are going to play out with Jon Brockman.

We scoured the lists and read and re-read our reports from the pre-draft camps. We hit upon Tasmin for his rebounding and defense out of the forward spot, much like what Brockman gave us last year. We then double and triple-checked to make sure he wasn't taken, because somebody on the staff swore Tasmin went off the board, but when we combed the draft list three times, his name never appeared.

So he's our selection now. To be honest, he's a late second-round pick. He's going to be fighting for minutes with a lot of players and I wouldn't be surprised to see him refine his game out in Albuquerque his first year and try to break into the rotation his second season.

His shot needs work, but the thing that jumped out at us is that he had 0 turnovers in all 50 minutes of the pre-draft games. That's what we like to see in Jestorball.

But we'll see what happens with Jon and we'll see what Tasmin shows us when we hit training camp."

***

This is why I get pissed when leagues don't at least have draft camp games for their draft scouting process. It's critical to have *some* sort of metric to go off, especially when you're in the second round and you're trying to do more than select a name out of a hat.

As you can see from all three of our picks, they're also a significant part of our drafting strategy, along with NCAA postseason performance, which is only possible in leagues where mgtr81 is involved - like in the NLL when he was Rookie Head, and in GAH, where he and I co-commish.

This was one of his drafts, and he said Mitchell was a really good pick this late in the second.

Mitchell was also very much a system guess pick.

So those were our three selections for the draft. Now it was on to the offseason and the usual chaos that surrounds any team I run in an MP league.

[Izulde]

Light Speed Improvement of Other Southeast Teams Adding to Miami Management's Anxiety

The Miami Heat could use a Derrick McKey right about now

We first reported it as a side note in the playoffs edition of Miami offseason rumors, but it's happened again. The team that's offering, among other things, one of the league's best young big men and a guaranteed lottery pick in next year's draft for Chris Paul, is further pressing the Miami Heat to rebuild by trading away Pau Gasol and filing a T-Mac exemption.

Although emphatically rejected the first time it was offered, the situation has now changed enough that it appears Heat GM Jestor is seriously considering it, and the sleepless nights are starting.

According to one anonymous source, "The front office is freaked out over how much Orlando and Charlotte have improved. Cleveland is Cleveland and Detroit is Detroit still, so they're asking themselves if it's really worth it to settle for at best a mid playoff seed and get trampled by the elite teams in the East year after year. Gasol's not getting any younger and Miami would hate to waste CP3's prime."

There's also the issue of Miami still having done nothing to address the gaping hole at SF. Although the Heat drew plaudits for capturing Willie "Wonder" Warren with the #14 pick, their selection of Michael Washington at the 29th spot has met with mixed reviews, several analysts expressing shock Miami didn't try to get a SF there. It's well-known Jestor highly covets Shawn Marion, not least because of their shared UNLV connection, but with Miami unable to offer more than the MLE unless two of three of Mike Miller, Steve Francis, and Devon Hardin are traded, with no salary coming back, the Heat appear out of the running.

Worse still, Marion figures to be aggressively pursue by Miami's money-flush Southeast rivals, the Charlotte Bobcats and Orlando Magic, with the winner almost certainly guaranteed to capture the Southeast and the loser looking a lock to take second place, leaving Miami and a rebuilding Atlanta to fight for third.

The Heat could have addressed their void at the 3 by acquiring Rashard Lewis, but it would have meant a perilously thin bench heading into next season, as well as the loss of Washington, who, while panned by several experts, gives a much needed boost to a shaky frontcourt depth. Miami also refused the offer because they wanted Marion above all and planned to show him they did it, in the words of Janet Jackson, "all for you".

Miami basketball fans aren't the only ones anxious over a possible rebuild. The team's marketing department is furious over the rumors, as they've been planning a campaign around the Wonderpaul backcourt that should emerge in the next couple of seasons, complete with yet to be released title song.

Should the Heat rebuild, they're likely looking at the following lineup heading into next season, assuming no other changes to the roster:

PG: Marcus Banks (If re-signed as planned) (32)
SG: Daequan Cook (26)
SF: Mike Miller (33 - expiring next season)
PF: Mysterious young big
C: Aleks Maric (25)
6th: Willie "Wonder" Warren

And with Francis, Hardin, and Miller all expiring, that would give the Heat a lottery pick, plus a ton of cash next free agency to be able to make a splash as one of the league's top young up and coming teams, with franchise player in the making Warren, the big, and Maric forming a supremely talented Big Three, the PG of the future likely to come with the 2014 lottery pick.

But would the league even agree to the T-Mac exemption, even as the Heat's lawyers are preparing a presentation? And ultimately, the real question at the end of the day is, would Jestor be happy without CP3, the franchise face who finished in the top 3 in PER, got voted an All-Star starter, received MVP votes, gave the Miami Heat the identity it'd lacked, and nearly led them back to the playoffs after a three year absence?

The answer to that last question may ultimately decide where Miami goes.

Blockbuster CP3 Deal A Given If Big Man Traded; T-Mac Granted

What country will Pau Gasol dominate next?

Word on the street is, the Miami Heat will be trading Chris Paul if Pau Gasol is traded and if the T-Mac exemption is granted, and the team he's going to, as well as the return for CP3 are essentially established.

But before that big-time blockbuster can happen, the big man, Mr. Gasol, needs to leave his South Florida home. Let's take a look at some possible destinations.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics
Won't happen. The C's are loaded with large contracts for veteran players, which would hurt Miami's T-Mac eligibility. Of course, as a side note, there was that botched Gasol for Emeka Okafor deal under the prior Boston management.

New Jersey Nets
Still awaiting word on the Greg Monroe deal. If that happens, they have the cap space to take on Gasol, and could offer an attractive package. They might be interested in Pau, as PG/Williams/Monroe/Gasol/Griffin suddenly makes the Nets an exciting team, one that could push for a playoff spot in the East and be good for the next several seasons.

New York Knicks
Knicks are in firm rebuild and won't add a veteran player.

Philadelphia 76ers
Probably not, as they already have Beasley/Stoudamire/Thabeet and Jestor hates Thabeet.

Toronto Raptors
They plan to build around Dozier and Varnado, their recent first round pick. On the other hand, adding Gasol would make them the prohibitive favorites in the Atlantic and they have the cap space. Then again, they don't have their pick in 2014, so it would have to be a 2016 1st, which could well happen.

Central

Chicago Bulls
Gasol would definitely fit with Chicago's offensive mantra and the Bulls have cap space. But the Bulls are rumored to be heavily pursuing Kevin Love and will they still be interested in Gasol if they get the young big from the Bobcats?

Cleveland Cavaliers
A very real possibility. Remember the Richard Jefferson for Omer Asik trade last offseason? Gasol would make the Cavs an incredibly strong and deep team in the frontcourt and he could play a Jefferson switcharound role.

Detroit Pistons
They've got Amir and Oden and are already in cap problems trying to re-sign Swift. Won't happen.

Indiana Pacers
Rebuilding, so a no go.

Milwaukee Bucks
The center position was the weakest spot for the Bucks last year, so it's reasonable to think they'll be extremely interested in Gasol. But salary matching will be a problem.

Washington Wizards
They're at a crossroads, but Gasol would be a massive talent upgrade over Hunter. A combination of expiring contracts, like the ancient, faded Ginobli and someone else, plus a future first could make this deal work, if the Wizards decide to still gun for the playoffs.

Southeast

Atlanta Hawks
Rumored to be rebuilding, so unlikely.

Charlotte Bobcats
Loaded with talented young bigs galore, although Gasol would fit in with the offensive scheme. They're likely looking more at defense and rebounding, such as Chicago's Bynum, but anything's possible.

Orlando Magic
The Magic certainly have the resources and the cap space to pursue Gasol, and he'd be a great complement to DeAndre Jordan. But will Jestor want to trade Gasol to his Florida rival?

Dallas Mavericks
Rebuilding, so unlikely. They're shopping Crawford, after all.

Houston Rockets
Rebuilding, but you never know what GM Gary Chan will do.

Memphis Grizzlies
Rebuilding, so no.

New Orleans Hornets
Would be an upgrade over Spencer Hawes in the post and give the rising Hornets precisely the high-quality veteran player and captain young New Orleans needs. They also have the cap space and adding Gasol moves the Hornets up into the next level of West teams.

San Antonio Spurs
They want Gasol back and have been one of the few teams actively lobbying for him. He'd be a huge upgrade in the post upon his return to the Spurs, but salary cap matching will be an issue. The Spurs would also have to almost certainly include their 2016 1st to have any chance, since their 2015 1st is untradeable.

Northwest

Denver Nuggets
Hard to tell what they're going to do exactly, but Gasol would improve their situation considerably. Perhaps the expiring Bogut and a future 1st that's likely to be late?

Minnesota Timberwolves
They're shopping Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett for future firsts, which also complicates the Gasol picture, but Gasol is 4 years younger than both of them, cheaper than Garnett, and will be productive for much longer than either of those two. Perhaps something around Garnett's expiring and a future first will land the proven Gasol with the Timberwolves as they strive to again be one of the West's top teams.

Oklahoma City Thunder
A major improvement over Ike Diogu Mr. Gasol will be, but the question is, do the Thunder think they're ready to step up into the West postseason race?

Portland Trailblazers
They need offense in the worst possible way, so Gasol would be a major boon for the Trailblazers in their quest to return to the top of the West. But matching salaries will be a major problem, and although Jestor loves UNLV players, Joel Anthony is not his type of guy at all.

Utah Jazz
Rebuilding, so no.

Pacific

Golden State Warriors
Rebuilding, so no.

Los Angeles Clippers
They have draft picks and they'll have cap space after they renounce Chandler. They'll also have a huge hole at center, one that could be filled very nicely with Gasol. Probably one of the strongest candidates to land him.

Los Angeles Lakers
Rebuilding, so no.

Phoenix Suns
Salary matching is a huge problem and they're already having to worry about retaining Haddadi next offseason. Although Gasol would be an upgrade over Boozer.

Sacramento Kings
Almost anyone is an improvement over the playoff-sucking Ming, but as with many teams, salary matching is a problem.

Final Analysis
Gasol, if he's traded, will almost certainly go to a West team who needs him to move up to the next level. The Clippers, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Hornets all look like strong candidates, and if the Spurs can work a three-way to bring more palatable pieces to Miami, they have to be considered contenders as well.

Willie "Wonder" Warren, Michael Washington, Tasmin Mitchell Newest Heat

Oklahoma's G Willie "Wonder" Warren was a hot prospect

The Miami Heat entered the 2013 NLL Draft with three draft picks and left with three players, despite repeated rumors and efforts to package #14 and #29 into the Top 10. Even with the lack of trades, Miami still landed its #1 target, G Willie "Wonder" Warren from the University of Oklahoma, with the 14th overall pick. Warren was one of the most coveted prospects in the draft, as the Heat, Magic, and Nuggets all warred to try and move up to take Warren from the 10th pick on, with the Nuggets nearly achieving it at #13, a pick in front of Miami.

Wonder's strengths include incredible upside as a ballhandler and scorer, with tantalizing shooting, defense, and basketball understanding potentials. He's drawn comparisons to Chauncey Billups, a player capable of playing either guard spot flawlessly. It's possible he could start his rookie season, but what seems more likely is that he comes off the bench as Daequan Cook's understudy and then takes over in Year 2. Miami's marketing department still hopes Chris Paul stays with the team so the Wonderpaul backcourt can be utilized as a campaign for years to come.

In fact, the only knock on Warren is a suspect consistency, but Eric Musselman and the rest of the Heat staff will work with him to develop a more consistent and accurate game. That inconsistency was apparent in the Sooners' Sweet 16 game, where Warren flamed out with a horrible performance, directly responsible for Oklahoma's defeat.

On the other hand, he had an excellent pre-draft camp, playing extremely well in three games, after a clunker in Game 1.


Although he comes with questions, C Michael Washington addressed a weak area for Miami

C Michael Washington from the University of Arkansas was taken with the 29th pick. Criticized for his lack of basketball understanding and discipline after playing his senior year on a underachieving, poorly coached Razorbacks squad, he nonetheless brings exceptional consistency and already ranks as the Heat's best shotblocker. He also has amazing rebounding potential and could become a better player than some think he currently projects.

It's hard to say what will happen as a result of the Pau Gasol trade, but what's clear is that Washington will see playing time in his rookie season. He'll battle Devon Hardin for the Heat's first big off the bench in the pre-Gasol makeup and figures to add defensive toughness, blocking and rebounding Miami needed in the post, no matter what amount of time he receives.

Washington's selection also makes it certain Miovan Rakovic will not see the floor much unless there's injuries, a feat Miami's front office was quite eager to achieve.

Like Warren, Washington had an excellent game, showing off some fantastic shooting accuracy and rebounding prowess, with far fewer fouls than one of his believed suspect discipline would suggest.


LSU's SF Tasmin Mitchell could be more relevant than most late 2nd rounders

Finally, with the 55th overall pick, 25th in the 2nd round, the Heat took a flier on LSU SF Tasmin Mitchell. Lauded as a great value pick for that late stage in the draft, it was Mitchell's 0 turnovers in 50 minutes that earned him the status of drafted player, rather than an UDRFA as the final mock draft predicted.

He's a player almost nobody in the league, including the Heat, have any real information on. Thus, his progress, ability and playing time will remain a mystery until teams head into offseason workouts and training camp. What isn't puzzling, however, is why Miami took him. With an old Mike Miller the only true SF on the roster, the Heat needed youth, and Mitchell's purported defensive ability and the ball security he showed during the pre-draft games were enough for Miami to eagerly snap him up.

No matter what happens, it already appears that these three players make up the most successful draft Jestor has ever had, after he took Sonny Weems and Walter Sharpe in the late first and early 2nd respectively in Orlando, and after drafting Sergio Llull, Derrick Byars, and Rakovic last year in Miami.

None of the players are with their original teams, but Wonder Warren, at least, should stick out of this group, and it's quite possible that Washington and Mitchell will too.

***

Context Notes
We were definitely mulling over a rebuild mode and the deal offered to us was one that cost me quite a bit of sleep. As it turns out, I did in fact do a draft recap with pictures, so there you go.

As it turns out, this wasn't the only time I've done a team by team brochure for a player I heavily shopped. I did it with Ron Artest in Orlando as well in my first NLL stint, though I'd forgotten about it until mgtr81 pointed it out.

[Izulde]

Maric, Warren Confirmed Starters

SG Willie Warren - #14 overall pick, 360 box cover star, summer league starter

The Miami Heat announced today the sending of rookies Willie "Wonder" Warren, Tasmin Mitchell, and Michael Washington to the Summer League along with Aleks Maric, Milovan Rakovic, Anthony Morrow, and recently renounced Leo Lyons. Jon Brockman was also initially selected, but was ruled ineligible due to number of years in the league, although the Heat have to this point retained his rights.

Warren, the #14 overall pick in the most recent draft, and Maric are confirmed starters for the Alonzo Mourning Academy alongside PG Petteri Koponen, SF Earl Clark, and PF Epke Udoh of the New Orleans Hornets to form a team that is already popularly being called the Heatnets.

"We're very excited to see how the team performs in the Summer League and hope we can do Zo proud in winning the summer league", said Heat GM Jestor.


All eyes will be on C Aleks Maric to see what he does this summer

Maric, one of the biggest captures in last year's Miami Heat extreme makeover, figures to be the focal point of the Heatnets offense and could very well end up a contender for Summer League MVP honors. With the recent reports of Pau Gasol's verbal elsewhere, the Heat coaching staff will certainly be looking for a dominant summer showing from him, as Maric projects to step in as the starting center spot after the deal.

Equally of interest will be how ready Warren and Washington look, and just what kind of display Mitchell, one of the most mysterious draft picks, will put on.

Surveying the Division 3 Competition

The Heatnets will be playing against the Dominique Wilkins Academy, the Walt Frazier Academy, the Patrick Ewing Academy, and the Free Agent Academy. The last of these, the free agents, is not expected to mount a serious challenge for advancement out of pool play, even though the roster is not yet known.

Dominique Wilkins Academy
PG: Alexey Shved
SG: Danny Green
SF: Al Faoruq Aminu
PF: Greg Monroe
C: Joel Freeland

Sammy Mejia
Brian Zoubek
Eric Wallace
Jeff Pendergraph
Ndudi Ebi
JJ Hickson
*

Shved is the most prototypical floor general rookie and will pair well with Green to form an impressive backcourt. Monroe was a Top 5 selection and Freeland looks solid, but Aminu is extremely raw and the bench looks quite dubious, particularly in the frontcourt.

Walt Frazier Academy
PG: Jared Jordan
SG: Stephen Curry
SF:Wesley Johnson
PF: Alexis Ajinca
C: Cole Aldrich

Devan Downey
Cenk Akyol
Cedric Bozeman
Christian Eyenga
Stanley Robinson
Mouhamed Sene
Deron Washington

Deep and talented starting five with Curry, Johnson, Ajinca, and Aldrich is arguably the best 2-5 lineup in the summer league. But Jordan is a weak link and although the bench is deep in perimeter players, like the Wilkins Academy, the post bench play is suspect. Still, the Cavs influence, including two starters on the team with the best regular season record and the #2 overall pick, has to make them one of the favorites to advance out of the division.

Patrick Ewing Academy
PG: John Wall
SG: Courtney Lee
SF: Derrick Brown
PF: Artsiom Parakhouski
C: Luke Harangody

Nick Calathes
Milan Macvan
Solomon Alabi
Ahmad Nivins
Mile Ilic
Eden Bavcic
Gabe Manouke

Wall, Lee, and Parakhouski should make this a really fun team to watch and Alabi gives the Mavknicks the sort of qualiy frontcourt depth the other teams in the division don't really have. They also have a capable backup PG in Calathes. The real question mark here is center, with Harangody a surprise starter who will likely get overpowered by the likes of Maric and Aldrich.

Final Analysis
On paper the Walt Frazier Academy looks the strongest and deepest and the Rapingcavs should win the group. #2 seems to be a battle between the Heatnets and Mavknicks, with the Blazenethawks a fairly distant fourth and the Freescrubs a distant fifth.

Gasol Joins Clippers; Heat Receive Moon, Clippers 2014 1st

Injury concerns, decreased performance, and a lengthy contract led to Pau Gasol finally being traded from Miami

After a year and an offseason of rumors and one failed trade, C Pau Gasol is finally leaving South Florida. The Miami Heat officially announced a trade this afternoon that sends Gasol to the Los Angeles Clippers for defensive guru SF Jamario Moon and the Clippers' 2014 1st round pick (Top 8 protected).

Gasol, 33 next season, missed two months with a broken hand, and had a comparatively disappointing season, averaging 15.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks, his 50.6% shooting his worst since 2010 with the Spurs, and the 69.8% free throw shooting and 0.6 steals the lowest totals of his lengthy and storied career in the NLL. That said, he had some quality games after coming back from injury and had an impressive 1.3 turnovers a game, buying fully into the Heat's Jestorball philosophy with its emphasis on ball security.

"He's still very much an All-Star caliber player, and one of the better big men in the league", Heat GM Jestor said at the trade announcement press conference, "But when we took a look at the situation we were in as a team, we decided that this was the best move for us going forward. We wish him all the best with the Clippers."

Gasol immediately plugs the Clippers' largest hole in the lineup at center and gives the Red and White a fearsome starting five to be reckoned with in a weak West. That starting lineup is potent enough, the West lackluster enough, that the first round pick is likely a mid-late selection. On the other hand, it guarantees that the Miami Heat are back in next year's draft, barring a fluke bad season from the Clippers.

An anonymous source said that the Clippers were concerned about the potential for injury to Gasol, and were also a little leery of the financial commitment involved in taking him on, so they took some time to think about it, and also requested protection on the first as a cautionary measure.

The deal also immediately sheds $12.5 million from the Heat's payroll and suddenly make them a team capable of being free agent players, as they were already under the cap after renouncing all contracts save Jon Brockman, who the team kept in order to either bring back or explore sign and trade possibilities for.


SF Jamario Moon became so enthused about the idea of playing with his buddy Daequan Cook, he went out and got a Heat uniform right way

Miami searched all season long last year and hunted this offseason for a defensive, genuine SF who would defer to Chris Paul, Gasol, and later Aleks Maric. Moon becomes that player, a shutdown defender who knows his role, and who, important in the eyes of the Heat, has shown improved play in the postseason. He projects to step in the starting lineup immediately and give the Heat a defensive warrior and great chemistry guy. He's also signed to a very affordable contract, a flat-rate $3.5 million a year for the next 3 years, and at 31 in the upcoming season, should be a quality player for the length of the deal.

New Projected Starting Lineup (Of players currently on roster)
PG Chris Paul
SG Daequan Cook
SF Jamario Moon
PF Devon Hardin/Aleks Maric
C Aleks Maric/Devon Hardin

Other future effects
The Heat not only have $12.5 million added to their cap space and are back in the 2014 draft game, but they have Steve Francis's $7.1 million expiring, Devon Hardin's $5.2 million expiring and Mike Miller's $6.1 million expiring next season, giving them an additional $18.4 million off the books next year. Thus, no matter what direction they choose to go in, whether it's using the cap from the Gasol trade in this offseason, or whether they choose to let it ride, they'll be in the free agency conversation next year as well.

There's also the oft-rumored filing for T-Mac exemption on Chris Paul, an option that now becomes available with the trading of Gasol. Sources have said for weeks now that it involves a trade for a projected lottery first and one of the league's best young big men, which would give the Heat a lineup of, assuming no other changes, such as the return of Marcus Banks:

PG Steve Francis/Willie Warren
SG Daequan Cook
SF Jamario Moon
PF Young great
C Aleks Maric

"It's a tough decision", a West team scout said. "If it was us here in the West, we'd go for it, because it'd make the team a lot younger and make them flush with assets. But this is the East, where Cleveland and Detroit are juggernauts and the Heat are in the Southeast, where the Bobcats and the Magic are fast-rising powers."

Fans chanted for Paul to stay with the team, and indeed, at 28 years old next season, CP3 is in the prime of his career, and if the Heat spend wisely on a marquee player this season to fill the PF spot, such as Shawn Marion, they'll still have the financial warchest to go for another superstar next offseason and very quickly put themselves in the ranks of genuine title contenders.

What path the Heat ultimately take will be one of the most interesting storylines of what has already been an intriguing offseason in Miami.

****

Context Notes
So the Pau trade finally happened after the failed Boston Celtics Emeka Okafor deal last season and at the time, I thought I got the better deal. Defensive players were at a premium in the league then, and Moon was a guy I just really, really liked to be the defensive anchor at SF. I *think* the Clippers were a mid-tier team then. Would make sense given the pick and Pau's age.

Now it was to decide whether to file the T-Mac exception and deal away Chris Paul for that lottery first and prized young big man.

[Izulde]

Mutual Agreement Scuttles CP3 T-Mac Possibility

Chris Paul will be bowling for the postseason with the Miami Heat after all

The latest reports out of Miami are that both sides have agreed the trade in principle for PG Chris Paul is officially dead. Heat GM Jestor was extremely hesitant about dealing his franchise face and the other team in the deal voiced concerns over the trade as well, citing the very real possibility that it would leave them with a huge hole in their lineup, with no way to fill it, even with CP3's addition.

"Not surprising", said one West conference front office executive. "CP3 was the core of the Heat's transformation from ho-hum bad team relying on an aging Richard Jefferson and Pau Gasol for their point production to exciting playoff contender with a relatively decent window to challenge for the Southeast crown and possibly the East Conference Finals. Ultimately, I think it came down on Miami's side to, would Jestor still be able to love the team when he woke up in the morning? The answer to that was quite clearly no."

The trade's collapse guarantees that the Heat won't be filing for a T-Mac on Paul, as there simply isn't another package out there that makes sense for Miami in terms of the MVP contender. It also means that Miami, who are now flush with cash after the Pau Gasol trade, will very definitely be free agent players as they seek to fill the power forward spot in the deepest free agent class in NLL history.

"You won't see the Heat repeat the Monty Myles disaster", an East Coast scout said. "They got lucky last time because of Houston's greed for a first round pick and Gary Chan's love of guards. Miami's going to be very careful who they pursue."

Other sources say the team will be looking for a third scoring star to put alongside Chris Paul and Aleks Maric, which could mean a hard run at the 76er's RFA Michael Beasley or, in what seems more likely given the front office's affinities, Washington's Shawn Marion, one of the marquee players in this year's free agent class. There's other possible options out there as well, as not all agencies have released their client list and not all the possible options have been combed through by the front office.

Brockman Next To Leave?

At least one team is interested in F Jon Brockman

Jon Brockman is the only player who wasn't renounced by the Heat and sources say the team kept his rights largely to explore sign and trade possibilities. According to one insider, Miami's been approached about Brockman and discussions are ongoing. The insider refused to comment on the likelihood of a possibility, but noted that given the list of players offered by the opposite team, any trade would "significantly affect Miami's approach to this offseason and next."

Brockman, originally the centerpiece for the Heat in a deal with the Charlotte Bobcats, played well on defense and in rebounding, but struggled to find his shot, either on the floor or at the charity stripe. He bounced from starting SF to starting PF (after the Gasol injury) to reserve. Rumor has it Brockman's Cubs loyalty clashes with Jestor's White Sox devotee status and could make a deal more likely.

Other Free Agency Tidbits
Look for the Heat to re-sign Marcus Banks. He played extremely well after coming from the Clippers last season, flourishing after receiving his greatest playing time since 2007, when he started 29 games for the Knicks. As noted, Miami will also be looking for that third PF star. Those are likely to be their only two free agency moves, however, as Jestor traditionally prefers to build through trades and the draft, rather than risk the money market.

Gasol Deal Still To Be Processed, Media Blitz Planned

The prize Miami seeks, F Shawn Marion

Although the Miami Heat are still waiting for the Pau Gasol trade to be processed so that they have the cap room, the team declared its interest in Shawn "The Matrix" Marion with the opening of free agency.

"We have two goals this free agency period. One, to re-sign Marcus Banks. Two, to sign Shawn Marion. They are our only two targets and our only two goals", said an impassioned Heat GM Jestor at a short press conference.

"As we've indicated to Shawn's agent, we are already offering him the playing time, are prepared to show him the money, and will prove to him over the coming days how he can change teams and still hold to a loyalty."

Marion projects to start at the PF spot if he signs with the Heat.

Backup Point Guard Will Reprise Role If He Returns

Conversations have already begun with PG Marcus Banks's agent

Just moments after Miami Heat GM Jestor declared that Marcus Banks and Shawn Marion were the team's only targets this free agency, he said that he's already been in contact with Banks's agent and both player and team are eager to get a contract done.

"We gave Marcus the type of playing opportunity he hasn't had since the 2007 season and he performed well", Jestor said, "He was one of our primary targets to acquire this past regular season and he's one of our two men this free agency period."

Even with lottery draftee Willie "Wonder" Warren, Banks projects as the primary backup PG while Warren adjusts to the NLL game and develops. Even when Wonder does progress, it's projected that he'll start at SG alongside Chris Paul and Banks will still remain a key reserve.

***

Context Notes
In general, I hate free agency, as I think I've said elsewhere. But every once in a while, it's fun to play in it.

That CP3 deal both teams backed off of? Amir Johnson, who at that time was a young superstar PF in the making, and our own first round pick in the next draft back. Considering we would have been in rebuild mode after that deal, it would have made sense for us.

Banks did quite well for us as a reserve after I acquired him from the Clippers the season before. And, as many know, when I get a backup who fits well in my system, particularly one who doesn't hold much value to the rest of the league, I like to keep them around a long time. Doubly so if they're UNLV alumni.

[Izulde]

3 Year Deal Slightly Above Min-Sal For Each Season

PG Marcus Banks signing a basketball as part of a charity event at a local McDonald's

The Miami Heat have just concluded a three year, just over $4 million re-signing with reserve PG Marcus Banks, thus completing one of their two stated free agency objectives. Banks, who turns 32 next season, flourished after coming over from the Clippers, increasing his shooting percentages across the board and maintaining an excellent A/TO ratio in 25 games with 6 starts.

He projects to reprise his role as Miami's top backup floor general next season and will remain a valuable reserve and security blanket in the two years following.

"We're really thrilled to have Marcus back", Heat GM Jestor said when the team announced the agreement. "So much of basketball is about finding the right guys for your system. We felt last year Marcus would be the right guy for our system, so we got him from the Clippers, and he delivered. "

"This was the first of our primary and only free agency objectives. Now we're moving on to the other one, getting Shawn "The Matrix" Marion here in Miami. "

Organization insiders say the campaign for Marion, which has been fairly low key so far, is still waiting approval of the Pau Gasol deal before picking up steam.

Runnin' Rebels Greats Join Jestor For Miami Marion Rally

Do you remember your Runnin' Rebel Days, Shawn Marion?

The Miami Heat kicked off their Shawn Marion recruiting blitz with an unusual rally in South Beach today. Not only were thousands of Miami Heat fans in orange and black in attendance, but more than a few in Marion's scarlet and gray UNLV Runnin' Rebels jersey.

And they weren't the only ones in scarlet and gray.


Recent re-signing PG Marcus Banks repped the Rebels as well

There was also Marcus Banks, fresh off a contract re-signing, donning his collegiate uniform, leading the crowd in cheers, and former Runnin' Rebels greats Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon, and Greg Anthony from the 1989-1990 national championship team.

And then there was the ringleader of them all, Miami Heat general manager Jestor, dressed in a throwback UNLV baseball hat and jersey.


The King Rebel himself, Jestor

Jestor and the basketball Runnin' Rebels in attendance ran onto the court on a red carpet, fireworks, flames, and swirling lights firing off in perfect imitation of UNLV's home game entrances, the crowd roaring its approval and enthusiasm.

As the lights came back on and the smoke from the pyrotechnics cleared out, Jestor took hold of a waiting microphone while a larger-than-life production of the poster that leads this story unfurled behind him as the background for his address.

"Shawn "The Matrix" Marion", I've said all along that I would show you how you can still be loyal by changing teams. This is it, by joining forces with me and Marcus on the Miami Heat basketball team, bound together in Runnin' Rebel loyalty. You, Marcus, and I shall be collectively known as... THE UNLV THREE!"

The crowd again broke into pandemonium and Jestor smiled, resuming once it was quiet again.

"Some people might think the college bond means nothing, but this is America. College loyalty means a lot in this country. Others might say because you only played one year, you shouldn't be loyal because you only played one year, but that's just wrong. You were a transfer from junior college Vincennes, and in that status as a Runnin' Rebel transfer, you joined a long line of UNLV greats who played elsewhere first before finding a true home and true love with the Runnin' Rebels.

Greg Anthony here did it. Transferred from the University of Portland to UNLV.
Larry "Grandmama" Johnson here did it. Transferred from Odessa College to UNLV.
Armon "The Hammer" Gilliam did it. Transferred from Independence Junior College to UNLV.
Joel Anthony did it. Transferred from Pensacola Junior College to UNLV.
Chace Stanback did it after you. Transferred from UCLA to UNLV.

And a lot of other guys, too. The point is, these guys standing beside me, both the transfers and the career Rebels, and all the players I mentioned, all consider themselves Runnin' Rebels for life. Hell, I was a transfer of sorts myself, as I didn't go to UNLV until graduate school, but I will bleed scarlet and gray until I die.

This move we've been talking about with you and with your agent, going from Washington to Miami, that's a transfer, too. A transfer back to the UNLV love and the joy you had as a Runnin' Rebel. Back to the days of winning. Back to a home and a family.

So come to Miami, Mr. Matrix. We'll be waiting here, ready to give a Rebel Yell of welcome."

The rally closed with an en masse singing of UNLV's fight song.

Win with the Rebels a victory today!
Win with the Rebels, the Scarlet and Gray.
From mountains that surround you to far across the sea
We'll win with the Rebels of UNLV.
U! N! L! V! U-N-L-V, Go, Fight Win!
We'll win with the Rebels of UNLV.

Local Fan Declares 'Miami Heat To War!' Campaign

A prototype of the Ent costumes being constructed by T. R. Olkien

A Miami Heat fan, hearing the news of the Charlotte Bobcats moving ahead in the Shawn "Matrix" Marion race, has taken an unusual step. T. R. Olkien, 42, is building costumes of warrior trees called ents. Once he's done, he'll have the Miami Heat logo on their trunks and he and Miami Heat fans will walk down South Beach shouting, "MIAMI HEAT GO TO WAR! FOR MARION!"

Asked why he didn't use palm trees, Olkien responded, "Ents are cooler. Besides, palm trees wouldn't fit our bigger fans."

But this grassroots, or perhaps better said, grass and roots, movement wasn't the only Marion-related news out of the South Florida area. Heat GM Jestor officially responded to the Bobcats' alleged surge in front.

"We immediately contacted Shawn's agent when we heard about the news and will see what the situation is. However, I think it's worth noting that the Bobcats are wavering between Marion and Emeka Okafor. We've shown no such waffling and have remained committed all along to the Matrix. There's also the fact that Marcus Banks released a statement through his agent that he wants Shawn here as part of the UNLV Three. That's an important statement to make."

Jestor also addressed the on-court situation publicly for the first time.

"The fact of the matter is, we offer the best combination of loyalty and winning out of any of the contenders. We've had the UNLV Three rally, and we've pointed out our singleminded purpose, unlike others who are chasing after multiple big-name free agents, both of which are signs, symbols, and proofs of loyalty. That's more than what the Bobcats, Magic and many other contenders can offer.

As for the on-court product, we were a playoff team last year. We have Chris Paul and Aleks Maric as our offensive stars, a lockdown defender in Jamario Moon, and a solid all-around player in Daequan Cook. With Shawn Marion at power forward, we're again a playoff team, especially since our bench is even deeper than it was last season, when a coin flip cost us the #8 seed that should have been ours. A playoff team isn't something the Wizards can offer, as you well know, despite preseason picks year after year. We've already talked to you and your agent privately about our future plans and we believe they put us on track to contend for a title within two years' time.

We've also made a substantial formal offer and have shown willingness to show you the money. So, loyalty? Check. Playing time? Check. Winning? Check. Money? Check. Check it out. We offer all those areas here in Miami."

The general manager also mentioned plans were in the works for if and when Marion decides to make formal visits to each finalist team.

Miami Dismisses Wizards Anti-Heat Arguments

One of the most hotly contest free agents: F Shawn Marion

Miami Heat GM Jestor was said to shake his head and smile in amusement after hearing the Washington Wizards' claims that his team was a suspect destination for blue-chip veteran free agent Shawn Marion.

An hour later, Jestor was in front of the microphones to directly refute the Wizards' claims.

"So Washington is saying they only lost because of injuries to key players? Well, check it out. We lost Pau Gasol for two months to injury. We were also without Chris Paul for 8 games. Those were our two best players until we got Aleks Maric in here. I'd like to see any team miss its original top two guys and not be significantly affected.

Furthermore, fact of the matter is, we were a playoff team last year, even with those injuries. The same can't be said of Washington. Nor can that be said for much of the Wizards' history of chronic underachievement.

As for Gasol going? With that trade, we landed Jamario Moon, who is a great fit for our starting lineup and will make us a better team by deferring to Paul, Maric, and you, when you join this team. We also have a deeper bench than last year, so I fully expect us to improve on last season's record.

Can the same be said of Washington? No.

As we've said all along, a different kind of loyalty, but still loyalty, playing time, money, and winning are all here in Miami."

Asked about the rumor of the bidding for the Matrix increasing, Jestor would only say that they were re-visiting the situation.

***

Context Notes
The Banks signing was me doing what I do, and there was nobody else interested in him, so we were able to sign him to a cheap multi-year deal. The same thing has happened with "Sudden" Sam Smith in the GAH, where I use the same tactic to keep signing a reserve player who fits well in our system. And hey, Autumn, remember when he tore up your Nets in that one playoff series?

The Marion war, though. It was fast, furious, and an all-out war. Even more impressive - 3 Southeast teams were in on the bidding - The Miami Heat, the Washington Wizards, and the Charlotte Bobcats. But it was the Wizards and Heat who most energetically went at it. In fact, the last, short article in this update sparked a 36 reply back and forth between various GMs.

It got even better when mgtr81 changed his signature to support Marion to Miami. I don't remember if he was the first one to do it, or if someone else started a support campaign first, but soon, a ton of GMs in the league were lining up on one side or the other of the free agency period's most heated war.

[Izulde]

Heat Hit Upon Key Issues, Discover More Similarities

Free agent Shawn Marion is a White Sox fan

Shawn Marion made his official visit to the Miami Heat today and it was one that included Heat GM Jestor's traditional love of epic spectacle, but also had its quieter moments.

It all started when Marion landed at Miami's international airport, disembarking wearing a White Sox hat. The news was an unexpected surprise to the Heat entourage waiting for him, including Jestor, because...


Two of a kind in fandom: Jestor and Marion

Jestor himself is a White Sox fan, as evidenced by this photo from his University of Wyoming days.

The two passed the time going to Marion's hotel and the Miami Heat's offices, talking about the thrill of the 2005 World Series championship, Jestor remarking that it "broke my heart when Bobby Jenks got non-tendered in the 2010 offseason and went to the Red Sox." They also discussed the team's chances for the AL Central, the pennant, and the World Series title in the upcoming season.

Then free agent and GM entered the arena, where, much to Shawn's turn to be surprised, there stood a partial replica of the Thomas and Mack Center. Although not a full-size or complete replication, certain key elements were there and it was to these that Jestor pointed during their conversation.


UNLV retired jerseys, Part 1


UNLV retired jerseys, Part 2


UNLV NCAA Final Fours


UNLV national championship banner and other noted accomplishments

"As I've said before, your coming here will result in the creation of the UNLV Three with me, you, and Marcus Banks. You see in front of you some our mutual school's greatest players and greatest teams. But although some of them, like Gilliam, Augmon, and LJ met with great individual success, the last Runnin' Rebel to win an NBA ring was Isaiah Rider, as a bench player with the Lakers in 2001.

As we've indicated to you, we plan to challenge for the title in the next 2-3 seasons and you will be a key part of this championship effort. This is not the case in Charlotte, where you will be merely one of a horde of scorers, nor is it the case in Washington, where, as you've gone through year after year, the team underachieves and fails to live up to high preseason billing.

And as I've said all long, we were a playoff team last year but for the coin flip, despite significant injuries to Chris Paul and Pau Gasol. We are a deeper team than we were last season, and with your addition, will be a playoff team in actuality, with no need for coin flippage, this upcoming season. We also have $18.4 million coming off the cap next season, which, as we've said, will give us the financial resources to land an impact free agent to become those championship contenders.

We have that ability and unlike Washington, we have a proven track record. When I came in this previous offseason, it was a 27 win team that was underachieving relative to its talent level, and had the wrong mix of players. What happened? I engineered a complete makeover and reshaped the team into a playoff squad already. In a single season. Can you say the same with the Wizards, who despite years of underachieving, stubbornly refuse to reshape the team? Hit your head against a brick wall once, and you can be forgiven for not recognizing how hard it might be. Hit your head against a brick wall five times, and you deserve the brain damage.

Regarding the trouble spots noted by your agent, we have demonstrated our loyalty to you by our promises and by the UNLV Three Connection. Furthermore, the Monty Myles situation was a mistake on our part. You are not a mistake. You are a proven star veteran who will be the missing piece in our three star criterion which is part of he Jestorball system.

As for the uncertainty of direction, when we put Pau Gasol on the very public auction block, there were two directions we had before us. Trade for youth and picks or for cap space and picks. We were hoping for the latter, so that we could keep Chris Paul and have the space to go after you. As it turns out, the Clippers provided us not only the cap and pick we were looking for, but the defensive, deferring small forward we were looking for in Jamario Moon. "

Jestor then handed Marion a lineup card

Miami Heat Projected Starting Lineup
PG Chris Paul
SG Daequan Cook
SF Jamario Moon
PF Shawn Marion
C Aleks Maric

"You have the opportunity to play with one of the single greatest players in the entire league in CP3, and the kind of mixture of youth and veterans needed for regular season and postseason success."

Next, Jestor pointed to a wall of the arena, where a sign hung that read:

ONLY IN THE MIAMI MATRIX!
THE
MARICILICIOUS
WONDERPAUL
BACKCOURT
COOKS
UP A STORM
WHILE
MOON RISES
AND ALL
MARVEL
OVER
MARION!

Next to the sign hung the following banner:



"We have won a championship for our media and are consistently in the top flight of the most media-friendly and active teams. That's the type of exposure you need for high level endorsement deals. You won't get that in Washington or Charlotte, who bounce between average and worst teams for media presence. The league *will* know and follow you as a restored star if you come to Miami."

"And last, but not least", said the GM with a smile, "We have a gift for you."



"Your very own Miami Heat jersey, with Lucky #7. We can give you any number you want, but we thought 7 was appropriate for its lucky qualities.

So come to Miami. Come for the improved offer we've given you and your agent, for the UNLV Three Connection and restoration of college loyalty, for the starting spot and a clear-cut presence as one of our star players, for the promises we've made, and for the chance to win, not only in the regular season to re-enter the playoffs, but in the postseason to finally get that ring.

Neither Charlotte nor Washington can offer that complete, total package. Nor can they offer the sweet alliteration of Marion - Magnificent and Marvelous in Miami.

We'll be eagerly awaiting your decision."

GM Staying Calm

Miami Heat GM Jestor is tranquil despite Shawn Marion's delay

News has just been released that hotly-sought after SF Shawn Marion is taking another week to decide. With the Matrix yet to make official visits to Washington and Charlotte, that gives the Wizards and Bobcats an extended opportunity to make a final pitch. Still, Miami Heat GM Jestor was keeping calm, in spite of the delay.

"We've been going after Shawn from the very beginning and have shown flexibility and willingness in the negotiations. We've also refuted some of our trouble spots, which Charlotte and Washington haven't really done. For example, that big sign and trade the Wizards had? I don't see it anywhere. That big free agent signing the Bobcats were making? Don't see that either."

Jestor also expressed doubt about Charlotte's rumored $50 mil./3 years offer.

"As far as I'm concerned, that's just Internet rumor and we're going to treat it as such for the time being."

The general manager also said a decision on Jon Brockman, who the Heat do have interest in bringing back, will wait until Marion chooses where he'll sign. Marion and Brockman may not be the only moves and intrigue left to play out in the Heat's offseason. Jestor confirmed that although the team hasn't yet spoken to any other agents, they're reviewing their roster and the available free agents to see if there's a depth player they can pick up to fill out their roster even if Marion and Brockman sign.

Free Agent's Anger Over Marion Delay Puts Team In Hurry-Up Mode

Free Agent F Jon Brockman's public frustration spurred the Heat to greater action

Jon Brockman's opening up to other teams and offers after spilling over with public frustration over the Heat's slowness to action as Miami waits to see what F Shawn Marion decides on. More to the point, the week delay and Miami's subsequent passed-on delaying has been the source of Brockman's fury and change in direction.

"It's completely and absolutely understandable", Heat GM Jestor said. "We've immediately gotten in touch with Brockman's agent to further the discussion. We thank Jon for his patience and appreciate his urging us to resume the conversation."

Jestor admitted the situation could imperil the team's relationship with Brockman and PPI's other clients.

"Any time you have a scenario like this, where you're pinning your free agency on one player, there's a very real potential for that sort of fallout. We hoped that our singleminded pursuit of Shawn, combined with our aggressive approach in finances and media, would result in a comparatively swift resolution, but it hasn't panned out that way.

It's unfortunate that Shawn chose to delay his decision, but that, too, is understandable, as this could be Marion's last major contract and chance to be the star of a ring-winning team. We'll persevere and see how it all comes out."

***

Context Notes
I'd completely forgotten about wanting to bring Jon Brockman back, but he showed me enough in the partial season we had him apparently that I was interested in keeping him.

Oh, by the way, I was right about the Bobcats' offer being a bluff. As it turned out, Charlotte wasn't even really interested in Marion. They wanted to start a bidding war to ensure that either us or the Wizards would eat up all our cap on the Matrix so the Bobcats could get other targets cheaper.

Well-played, knightdemon, well-played

Oh, and those photos from the Thomas & Mack are ones I took. This was before Japan, so it was with the Sony camera I had prior to the Canon SX40.

[Izulde]

Washington vs. Miami (vs. latecomer Toronto?)

F Shawn Marion has a lot to think about in the race for his signature

The Charlotte Bobcats' $50 million offer was a smokescreen for PF/C Emeka Okafor, so the race appears down to the Miami Heat and the Washington Wizards, although the sudden surge of the Toronto Raptors might make this a new three team race. Jackson Ayorinde, an occasional NLL commentator, says the Raptors are far too little, too late to the party to deserve serious consideration and that it's still down to the Miami Heat and the Washington Wizards.

The two confirmed finalists have been jockeying for position and it's anybody's guess where Shawn Marion eventually signs. Ayorinde re-caps the situation:

Miami Heat
Strengths: Media relations, biggest single year improvement, large cap room next year
Weaknesses: Monty Myles situation

Washington Wizards
Strengths: Loyalty
Weaknesses: Underachieving

Both teams are said to be offering 3 year deals worth about the same amount of money and both are offering starting spots. Ayorinde points out that while loyalty, money, and PT are all grouped together in a tight cluster, with winning at 50, it's still a key component that could ultimately be the deciding factor in this race.

Miami and Washington have each made their claims as to the best situation for Marion in terms of winning, and Ayorinde decided to take a closer look at what happens if the teams didn't have Marion.

Point Guard
Chris Paul vs. Deron Williams
CP3 is a legitimate MVP candidate and finished 4th in voting last season. He's a do everything, top 5 player in the league. Williams is a double-double PG with pretty good defense in his own right, and arguably the best floor general in the league. But Top 5 player in the entire league and MVP candidate he's not.

Advantage: Miami

Shooting Guard
Daequan Cook vs. James Anderson
Cook is an extremely accurate outside shooter, the type of high intangible player who plays better than some scouts rate him. He also received a vote for Most Improved Player last year. Anderson, the rookie, projects as the starting SG, as he's impressed in Summer League and Wally World figures to decline considerably. But of course, we won't know for sure how good Anderson is until he plays. For now, call it a coin flip.

Advantage: Draw

Small Forward
Jamario Moon vs. Nick Smith
Moon is here to be the shutdown defender and past history suggests he'll do extremely well in that role. Smith finally broke out with shooting accuracy last season, but is it a sign he's turned the corner, or will he revert back to his prior struggles? In any case, in terms of pure talent, there's little question the Wizards are better here.

Advantage: Washington

Power Forward
Jon Brockman vs. Brandan Wright
Devon Hardin if the Heat don't re-sign Brockman, but despite the recent public furor over the waiting game, Brockman's one of the most loyal players in the league and all signs point to Miami bringing him back. Like Moon, he's a defensive wizard, but he's also a great rebounder and passer/handler. Wright is a very good all around power forward, not quite on the elite level the Wizards like to believe him, but still much better all-around than Brockman.

Advantage: Washington

Center
Aleks Maric vs. Steven Hunter
Maric is the #2 option right now behind CP3 and he's a high quality, young all-around center. Hunter is the Wizards' version of Moon, and just like the Moon/Smith matchup, the younger player is the far superior one.

Advantage: Miami

Bench
The Heat have a strong set of reserve guards. There's draft steal Willie "Wonder" Warren, still capable Steve "Franchise" Francis, and proven reserve floor general Marcus Banks, just to name a few. Mike Miller is a capable all-around reserve, able to fill in at SG or SF. Anthony Morrow is an instant jolt of offense. The weak spot is the frontcourt, where Devon Hardin is liked by some in the league, but rookie Michael Washington is untested, and Milovan Rakovic is merely ordinary.

Jordan Farmar is a good backup floor general, but Manu Ginobli and Wally Sczerzbiak are both in their decline phase and will drop only more so before the start of next season. The Wizards just lost Louis Williams to the Minnesota Timberwolves and have no go-to bench scorer to speak of. Rashon Felix has ability as a rebounder and defender, and shoots accurately, but Brad Miller, like Ginobli and Wally World, will only decline all the more.

[b]Advantage: Miami

Overall Synopsis
Miami's perimeter game is stronger and deeper than Washington's, and although the Wizards have the current advantage at the two forward spots, the Heat have stronger star power with CP3 and Maric than the Wizards do with Smith and Wright,and they're a much deeper overall and younger team overall than Washington, who has an aging bench and little cover in case of injuries.

Impact of Marion Signing
Miami landing Marion would be huge in that his ability to play both SF and PF allows the Heat great flexibility in lineups. They can either send out Moon and Marion at SF and PF or Marion and Brockman at SF and PF, depending on who the offensive star forward on the opposition they need to shut down is. Marion also gives the Heat that third scoring star they prefer in the Jestorball system and raises their profile in the playoff race.

If Washington retains Marion, they can move Smith, Anderson, or Wright to the bench to give them that reserve scorer they need, and, should they move Wright down, address the lack of post depth. But it's still a comparatively shallow, aging team and even with Marion on this squad, they didn't make the playoffs last year.

Looking to the Future
Miami has $18.4 million coming off the books next season when they renounce Mike Miller, Devon Hardin, and Steve Francis. That's serious money to be able to upgrade their team to the championship contender level, as the overwhelming majority of that money will be in play to sign a free agent. Willie Warren also has incredible upside to be a franchise player and no less than championship winning GM Erick Senberg of the Orlando Magic has lauded Wonder's praises.

In contrast, the Wizards are in hard cap difficulties right now. Ginobli's $10.4 million, Farmar's $4.7 million, Wally's $6.8 million, and Hunter's $7.8 million add up to just under $28 million in cap clearance next offseason, but with the Wizards already 34 million over the cap, it still limits Washington to the MLE and LLE and without the flush of riches that the Heat have to offer.

Then there's the matter of Miami still being younger and deeper, with Warren and Maric still developing their impressive potential, whereas Washington will still be searching for the pieces to replace their ancient bench.

So in terms of winning situation, the Heat have a clear advantage over the Wizards, and that's without going into an in-depth analysis of Washington's annual disappointments recordwise.

Heat GM Caught Swearing At TV

Head coach Lon Kruger leads the UNLV Runnin' Rebels against Kansas State in a summer tournament

Miami Heat GM Jestor took a break from swearing at the TV during a special summer scrimmage tournament between UNLV and Kansas State to say he endorses the Dallas Mavericks getting LeBron James.

"I hate James just like I hate K-State for making that damned buzzer beating 3 pointer against the Rebels right before halftime. But the new Pistons GM had the Timberwolves as one of the worst teams in the league with Chris Paul, and that can't be good for a King James looking to theoretically establish himself as the greatest player in the league. Dallas is an up and coming team, whereas the Pistons are no doubt facing an inevitable decline.

There's also the fact that the East is much stronger than the West and James moving out West would help restore balance to the league."

As of the article printing, UNLV had put together a run to lead Kansas State by 6 with 10:25 left in the second half, the Wildcats due to shoot two.

Oddsmakers Are Split

Sin City is uncertain where former UNLV Rebel Shawn Marion will go

It's down to the wire in the Shawn Marion sweepstakes and in his college town of Las Vegas, the bookies are just as divided in their opinion as the conflicting reports over where Marion will land.

At Mike's Book in North Las Vegas, they're considering the Wizards the favorite. According to Mike, "It doesn't look like that whole UNLV Connection, while cute, has gotten the Heat any traction at all. The money's about the same and if you want to know the truth, winning's about the same for next season. Beyond that, yeah probably the Heat, but who knows how much longer Marion's gonna play? It all comes down to loyalty and he's had the two years with the Wizards."

Over in East Las Vegas, though, a number of bookies are singing a different tune.

"It'll be Miami", says Paul of Tropicana Sports Bettors. "His closest friends are saying the Heat and I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami come in with a bigger offer at the end, just to push the scales their way, not like they weren't already leaning that way. I mean hell, come on, Marion's been drawing out this process for far too long for him to be going back to the Wizards. If he was really planning on staying in Washington, he would have re-signed with them long before this, leaving Charlotte and Miami in the dust."

There's been no further reports out of South Florida, with the Heat offices on strict gag order. Some reporters have tried to find out if there was ever any conversation between Miami and Washington about a possible sign and trade as an amicable resolution for both contenders, but even the organization insiders who take their loquacious vibe from their GM refused to comment on that angle.

In any case, a decision should come down soon.

***

Context Notes
We got in on the support train fun as you can see here. In this universe Lebron James had led the Detroit Pistons to 5 titles in 6 seasons, so he was a hot free agent.

Marion's decision obviously is going to come in the next post.

[Izulde]

Major Moves Unlikely

Depressed Miami Heat fans while Wizards GM Matt Hill celebrates in the background

The Decision: Matrix Version came down and it resulted in the Washington Wizards retaining Shawn Marion and the Miami Heat with a gaping hole in their lineup and the clear-cut worst team in the division.

An offseason that initially looked promising with the brilliant steal of Willie "Wonder" Warren and the defensive SF the Heat needed in Jamario Moon, plus a regaining of a 2014 first and major cap space to position Miami as free agent players in the Pau Gasol trade has now turned to disaster.

Because Heat GM Jestor didn't talk to any other marquee players, but stayed faithful to his pursuit of Marion, secondary target Emeka Okfaor? Gone, and to the Charlotte Bobcats. Personal Jestor favorite Martell "Webby" Webster? Gone. Hopes of the playoffs this season? Gone.

In short, Miami has, in the course of two weeks, been passed up by Orlando and Washington and the initially narrow gap between them and Charlotte widened into a gulf. Atlanta always overperforms relative to their talent, so the Heat are now staring at the bottom of their division, without their own draft pick.

"Guess we should have taken the deal the Pistons offered with taking on Rondo and our first for two seconds", a rueful Jestor said. "We almost did it, but we thought we had a very real chance at Marion."

For those teams hoping for Chris Paul to be T-Mac'ed, forget it. "Not happening. Detroit also offered us Amir Johnson and our 2014 1st for Paul, which is the one deal we seriously considered and would seriously consider for him."

And so a serious of missteps, leading back to the Monty Myles debacle of last offseason, have put Miami in a damnable position. With very few star power forward options available, and PPI apparently on vacation, which makes Jon Brockman's status up in the air, the Heat suddenly have a giant hole in the post.

"All our scouts are on vacation, too", the GM admitted. "Frankly, I don't want to go the trade route for some short-term success this season. If nothing else, we'll roll in the space we have now to the 18.4 million we have coming next season, go in next offseason with over 30 million and really be in position to throw our weight around."

For now, it appears the Los Angeles Lakers have landed themselves a Top 10 pick. Of course, there's some protection on that pick, although whether it's Top 5 or Top 8, research could not turn up in time for this article. Although such a fall seems a bit of a stretch, anything is possible in the NLL.

Brockman Back; Kalnietas Also Captured

F Jon Brockman and his agent with PPI were all smiles at the press conference announcing his re-signing

Although the Miami Heat failed in their epic quest for F Shawn Marion, they did manage to rebound with a pair of financially sound contracts to fill out their roster. As expected, the team re-signed F Jon Brockman. Financial details were 3 years and $3.6 million, with a flat of rate of $1.2 million a year. As the roster is currently composed, Brockman figures to battle with rookie Michael Washington and Devon Hardin for the starting PF spot.

"We're thrilled to have Jon back", Heat GM Jestor said. "He was a key part of our team last year and his rebounding, ability to draw fouls, defense, and passing and handling are all excellent attributes that will make him a worthy player for the next three seasons. We've promised to continue working with him on his shooting form so he can become more accurate and more valuable."

Brockman will be 24 next NLL season, his fourth in the league. He also looks to finally have some stability in his professional life, after having played for five teams in three season (Utah, Washington, Minnesota, Charlotte, Miami).


PG Mantas Kalnietas now has the money to pay for his wedding after signing a million dollar contract with Miami

Point guard depth was a paradoxical concern for the Heat, whose Jestorball system relies on ones with passing and handling ability. Chris Paul and Marcus Banks formed a very good 1-2 bunch, but Willie "Wonder" Warren is still raw and in need of development before he can run the offense, and Steve "Franchise" Francis showed much more comfort as a SG last season. Enter Mantas Kalnietas, the former Dallas Maverick, who signed a 3 year deal for $3 million, another flat rate contract of $1 million a season.

Kalnietas, who turns 27 next season, was praised for his floor general skills and at 6'5, represents the opportunity to have a tall third-stringer point guard who can run the offense. Like Brockman, the knock against him is his shooting accuracy. He'll be the Heat's third point guard and will have the opportunity to work his way up the ranks.

"We're very, very happy to land Mantas", Jestor said. "Although we aren't the Houston Rockets, true floor generals are always a valuable commodity here in Miami. He's young enough that we see him as the possible heir apparent to Marcus Banks as our top backup point guard."

The low cost of the signings means that the Heat still have an enormous amount of cap space, and with the oft-repeated $18.4 million coming off the books next season, they can put themselves in position to land two marquee free agents next free agency period.

A full offseason review/season preview will come shortly before regular season tipoff. Although no other trades or signings appear to be in the works, one never knows what will happen with a Jestor team.

Jestor Confused For Brett Favre

A recent report accused Miami Heat GM Jestor of sexting New York Jets reporter Jenn Sterger

In the recent tumult over the NLL's labor situation and Miami Heat GM Jestor's abrupt resignation, an unnamed source alleged that the general manager's quitting was to avoid revelation of his sexting with New York Jets reporter Jenn Sterger. The source claimed Jestor engaged in salicious text messages to the sideline sexy, saying things like "I need to put my Big Heat in you and take you off like a Jet.", and sending her pictures of his bare private parts

Jestor's agent categorically denied these allegations, pointing out that the GM is a Miami Dolphins fan and has never had any interest in becoming a Jets supporter. Sterger herself refused to cooperate with NLL authorities and vehemently denied the news reports.

It later came to light that the penis perpetrator was in fact none other than Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre and Jestor was cleared of all charges.


Brett Favre, who almost got away with it

There's been no word yet on whether Jestor will return to the Miami Heat. With approximately 40 hours remaining until a league-imposed deadline for former GMs to head back to their posts, observers will be watching closely to see if the league's media maestro steps back in as the Heat's head.

Blockbuster Trade Occurs A Day After Jestor's Return

The Miami Heat are gambling that PF Carlos Boozer is still a Top 50 player in the league

Mere hours after the Miami Heat successfully convinced GM Jestor to stay, the always unpredictable general manager pulled off a shocking deal, sending PG Steve "Franchise" Francis and PF/C Devon Hardin along with Miami's 2016 2nd for ugly contract, but still talented 32 year old PF Carlos Boozer and the Suns' 2016 1st round draft pick.

Although it's anybody's guess what the Suns' first will turn out to be this far out, Boozer steps in as the immediate answer to the Heat's dilemma at the PF spot. His excellent rebounding talents, along with the ability to put up points and still play a very solid all around game, could very well make him the glue guy Miami needs to make the playoffs and legitimately play in the postseason.

The downside, of course, is the remaining three years on his deal:

Year 1: $22,589,389
Year 2: $24,848,327
Year 3: $27,333,160

It's the NLL's ugliest contract in terms of total money, but the Heat had over $14 million in cap space and still have Mike Miller's expiring contract on the roster. They still have around $4 million in cap space after this deal and only Chris Paul and Aleks Maric of the players that are likely to command big money are due for new contracts in the next three seasons. In short, the Heat should still have some money to play with next free agency to get a quality player, while being able to extend Paul and Maric without running afoul of hard cap difficulties.

Boozer averaged 14.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.1 steals last year with the Suns and he played a key role in Phoenix's playoff run before breaking his nose. More importantly for the ball security-obssessed Heat, he averaged just 1.6 turnovers a game last year and has long been known for his good security in the post. Let's not also forget, it wasn't that long ago Boozer was a legitimate All-Star and still holds the talent of one according to some GMs around the league.

Projected Starting Lineup
PG Chris Paul
SG Daequan Cook
SF Jamario Moon
PF Carlos Boozer
C Aleks Maric
6th Willie Warren

From the other side of things:


PG Steve Francis will point the way to scoring for the Suns

First up is 36 year old PG Steve "Franchise" Francis. Franchise experienced a brief renaissance with the Miami Heat last season after coming over in the Jon Brockman and Francis for expirings trade with the Charlotte Bobcats. After Pau Gasol went down with injury, Francis broke out with a string of 10+ scoring bursts off the bench, a critical component in the Heat's shocking 11 game win streak after the bad break, but turnovers and the arrival of Marcus Banks caused Franchise to be banished to the inactive list towards the end of the season.

Francis's $7.1 million expiring contract is obviously his biggest asset for the Suns, but he also gives Phoenix a proven veteran presence that's an upgrade over Marko Jaric as the team's backup point guard to Luke Ridnour, turnovers notwithstanding.


Opinions of C Devon Hardin vary wildly around the league

The 27 year old Devon Hardin has fans in some front offices. Others consider him JAG. He showed much improved shooting accuracy and point production despite fewer minutes after coming over from Houston in the famous Aleks Maric and Monty Myles deadline blockbuster last season and he's shown far greater ball security than scouts attribute to him in his career, he just never stood out to Heat officials as a key part of the team's future.

Hardin will definitely be in the mix in Phoenix, finding himself in a similar situation to Miami last year, where a weak post bench will see him as one of the top reserve bigs. If he can produce as well as he did for the Heat off the bench, he'll be a nice little pickup for the Suns and might possibly find a settled role there if he gets a contract extension. Note: Hardin also played for the Heat back in 2008 before joining the Denver Nuggets in free agency.

But of course, the biggest reasons the Suns made the deal was money. They instantly take a little over $10 million off their cap number with this trade, and together the two players are worth $12.3 million in expiring money. Assuming they're renounced, that's a little over $23 million right there. Add to that the recent shipping of Brandon Roy and suddenly Phoenix is looking like a free agent spender next season, even with prized C Hamed Haddadi's rookie contract ending this year.

Overall Summary
The Miami Heat go from being a probable lottery team and 4th or 5th in the powerhouse Southeast to one of the horses in the playoff race. Although the Heat won't have the resources to be free agent powerhouse players next offseason, Jestor has traditionally done poorly in free agency (see Amar'e Stoudamire/Monty Myles/Shawn Marion) and prefers the security of trades and drafting, so it's not a bad thing. They also will still have the money to go after a quality 2nd tier free agent and add a future draft pick, giving them some more trade ammunition. Neither Francis or Hardin figured to play significant roles for Miami this year, the Heat preferring to turn to Michael Washington as the top reserve big in the latter case, and flush with guards they prefer in the former case.

The Phoenix Suns essentially executed a salary dump and while the financial situation will be very pretty for them, Haddadi will eat at least half of that. Also, will the Suns be able to lure in a big name, or will they fall prey to the same futility that the Heat have? Phoenix will probably still be a low seed playoff team, but they'll doubtless miss the Beast in the postseason.

***

Context Notes
Yeah, we lost out on Marion. The PA wanted me to push the money even more to beat out the Wizards, and I just wasn't willing to do that, even for the Matrix.

Right around this time, donkey33, the commissioner, was burnt out and left. This created a crisis and the NLL, after several real-life years of existence, was on the verge of collapse.

I was getting tired of the league again (Note: this happens a *lot* with me and MP leagues. It's only the second version of GAH that's really hooked me in long-term thus far, and well, I suppose the NLL, since I'm back again, but more on that later).

Long story short, I got talked into staying, and ended up executing this trade to massively upgrade our starting lineup.

knightdemon, the Bobcats' GM, summed up the infusion of talent in our division nicely:

Just within the last year, these are the impact type players that have been shipped to the Southeast Division:

Dirk Nowitzki (ATL)
Peja Stojakovic (ATL)

BJ Mullens (CHA)
Emeka Okafor (CHA)
Kevin Love (CHA)

Carlos Boozer (MIA)
Aleks Maric (MIA)

Robert Swift (WAS)

Kobe Bryant (ORL)
Rashard Lewis (ORL)

Also Rookies that have the potential to be on that level:
Hassen Whiteside (ORL)
James Anderson (WAS)
Willie Warren (MIA)

Alot of new talent in the division. Going to be one hell of a season.

As a side note, I tend to be considerably less adverse to overpaid guys and contracts than most GMs. As I said before, being a player in FA usually isn't a big deal to me, so bring on the big dough (as long as the player is sufficiently talented, or as long as I'm being compensated for taking on that fat money - I'm not stupid. )

Eventually, though, a consortium of individuals stepped up to share the administrative duties, giving the donkey some rest.

[Izulde]

Davis Emblematic of Rockets' Struggles To Roster Makeover

PG Baron Davis's 'It stinks like ass in Houston' look

Once upon a time, there was a GM named Gary Chan. Gary liked being a general manager, and his team was the Houston Rockets. He liked the Rockets because they were a symbol of what he liked to do best - blasting off players to other teams. Every year, Gary would swap players with his buddies and clap his hands in joy as he made the playoffs season after season.

But one day, Gary didn't have anybody left that his friends wanted. Sure, there was Aleks Maric, who Jestor got for Monty Myles and a pick, and a lot of people liked Jeff Green, who somebody, your poor storyteller forgets who, got. But for the most part, Gary couldn't make a new team and this made him a very sad boy.

What made him most sad was that nobody wanted Baron Davis. Baron was a great player, and even though he was a very old man, he was named an All-Star by the Draft Day Sports Board, meaning he was a very, very good player, one of the best in his conference. But nobody wanted Baron, even though he just had one year left on his contract and it was worth a very big $13 million.

Baron averaged 18.1 points, 8 assists and 1.9 steals a game last year, making 47.8% of his shots. But he also had 3.4 turnovers a game, which made Jestor scream like a teenage girl at a Justin Bieber concert, even though Justin was really Taber with a different haircut.

So, dear reader, who among Gary's friends would be a better team with Baron?

Boston Dave could. The Celtics have no real good point guards and they have lots of old people that Baron could be buddies with and trade jokes about Metamucil and nasty, sagging things called manboobs.

Denver Coops could. Coops did a very bad thing and sniffed glue, which made him trade for Jrue Holiday, thinking he's a real live point guard, but Jrue isn't one. The Nuggets also need a perimeter scorer.

Utah Gs could. Gordon and Greene and Davis, oh my! That'd be a Baron's bounty of perimeter scoring! And the Jazz would have lots more money in the next offseason, which the Jazz, who are not Jeff because they do not have a Fresh Prince, but could use an Old Baron, need.

And, well, that's pretty much it. Everyone else already has the point guard they want and who knows if anybody would want to try Baron at shooting guard.

So there you have it. Boston. Denver. Utah. All three places fit for a Baron. Maybe he can go to one of those places and make Gary, Baron, and his new general manager very, very happy.

Some Encouraging Signs Despite 1-2 Preseason Start

Last lottery pick SG Willie Warren impressed in Miami's first three exhibition games

A lot of uncertainty surrounded this Miami Heat team heading into the preseason. Key changes in the frontcourt starting lineup and the jockeying of players and teams around the league in the offseason, particularly in the Southeast, had everyone wondering if this Heat team was a legitimate playoff contender after the addition of Carlos Boozer just before tipoff.

Thus far the answer seems to be that they'll be in the mix, despite going 1-2 in the first three games.

Game 1
@ New Jersey - L 93-100
The Heat shot just 40.7% from the floor, but made up for it by shooting 40.7% from long range (11/27). Aleks Maric played very uneven, 3/7 for just 7 points, but did have 9 rebounds and 4 blocks. Chris Paul hit 10/17 shots for 25 points before fouling out, but the best game came from Willie "Wonder" Warren, as the rookie hit 9 of 19, 4 of 7 from long-range for 22 points. The rest of the tam was by and large ugly, Jamario Moon and Carlos Boozer particular embarassments at a combined 3 for 22.

Game 2
vs Cleveland - W 93-83
Miami was the only team to beat the Cavs in Cleveland's first set and the Heat id it by playing stifling defense, holding the Cavs to 37.8% shooting. Balance was the watchword on offense, with Aleks Maric redeeming himself with a 16 point, 13 rebound double-double. Chris Paul, however, had an alarming 5 turnovers, the most he's ever had in South Beach.

Game 3
@ Washington - L 92-96
39.3% shooting translates into a 4 point road loss. Aleks Maric did his best to keep the Heat in the game, posting 21 points, 11 rebounds and 5 blocks and Willie Warren came through with 14 points in 19 minutes on 6 of 10 shooting, but the rest of the bench was a combined 3 of 18, which inevitably sunk Miami.

The Good
Willie Warren - 15 points in 18 minutes, 52.9% from the floor, 8/14 (57.1%) from 3 point range.
Aleks Maric - 14.7 points, 11 rebounds, 3.7 blocks, 3.0 A/TO ratio


The Bad
Chris Paul - A mortal 1.9 A/TO ratio
Jon Brockman - 30.8% shooting
Team shooting - 42.1% (22nd in the league)

The Ugly
Mike Miller - 26.3% shooting on 5 of 19. His hideous shooting probably singlehandedly cost Miami the two road losses as he went 2 for 7 in each.
Rebounds Allowed - 48.7 (29th in the league, ahead of only the Bucks)

Warren's stellar play earns him the right to get a crack at the starting lineup, thus unofficially beginning the Wonderpaul era. The battle for the starting SG spot between Warren and Daequan Cook will be one of the most closely watched of the preseason, as every other position in the Heat's lineup appears to be set.

And Mike Miller has played his way into Eric Musselman's doghouse. Look for him to sit in street clothes for the next series of games while Miami takes a look at late second round pick Tasmin Mitchell.

Head Coach Unconcerned About Poor Preseason Beginning

Heat head coach Eric Musselman also has international experience, having coached the Dominican Republic's national team

There's some anxiety in South Beach as the Miami Heat have gone 2-4 in the preseason despite fielding what many feel will be their regular season lineup. Another relatively close loss at home to the Washington Wizards, followed by blowout win and loss against Dallas and San Antonio respectively seem to suggest troubling signs ahead for a franchise that many pundits have already tabbed to finish 4th or 5th in the Southeast, even with the Carlos Boozer acquisition.

Miami Heat coach Eric Musselman was unflappable in his most recent press conference, however.

"Look, Chris Paul and Daequan Cook, two of the team's most traditionally accurate shooters, are both shooting 39.5% so far. That's what we call a slow start and an anomaly. They'll both get it turned around in the regular season."

But Paul and Cook aren't the only ones experiencing cold streaks relative to their career averages. C Aleks Maric is at 47.2% and SF Jamario Moon is also hitting a career-worst 32.7%. In fact, the only three players shooting 50% or better from the floor are reserve guards Marcus Banks (71.4%), Anthony Morrow (66.7%) and Mantas Kalnietas (50%). Still, Musselman shrugs off the shooting worries, arguing that it's only preseason and there's too many variables in play to draw any hasty conclusions.

Other interesting developments in the early preseason include Jon Brockman, Morrow, and Mantas Kalnietas leading the team in +/- at 7.5, 7.3, and 4.8 respectively, with Morrow averaging a team low 0.4 points/shots faced. Although the sample size is small, it points to the possibility of his getting a consistent set of minutes, unlike last year when he appeared in 71 of the team's 82 games.

Despite Moon's shooting difficulties, he's been as good as advertised on the defensive end, with 1.000% stop rate and allowing 0.9 points per shots faced at 6.2 shots a game.

Daequan Cook and Willie Warren continue to fight it out for the starting SG spot, with Cook stopping 92.4% of drives and allowing 0.7 points/shots faced despite a team high 11.8 shots faced per game. Warren, on the other hand, is at 81% drives stopped and has faced 8 shots a game, giving a point per shot faced. Warren played very even as a starter, hitting 7 of 14 against the Wizards, but was just 5 of 17 in his most recent games. He was 4 of 12 (33.3%) from the 3 point range, all 3 games combined.

Carlos Boozer has been a mixed bag so far. His counting stats have looked decent at 12 points and 7.3 rebounds a game on 46.8% shooting, but he's a team worst -6.8 +/- and has a 16.7% drive stop rate. He's also, in counterpoint, allowed just .029 turnovers/touch, better than any starter save Chris Paul and his .02 turnovers/touch.

There's also the battle of the backup PGs, with the following stat lines:

Marcus Banks - 4.3 PPG 2.2 APG 71.4% shooting, 100% 3 point range, 80% FT, -5.2, 62.5% drives stopped, 1.2 A/TO ratio, 11.5 MPG
Mantas Kalnietas - 3.5 PPG 1.5 APG 50% shooting, 100% 3 point range, 100% FT, +4.8, 67.7% drives stopped, 3.0 A/TO ratio, 7.8 MPG

Musselman remarked that he hadn't yet decided who Chris Paul's main backup would be. He also admitted his starting swingmen were perhaps in flux.

"They're both quality reserves to have on this team and we'll watch and see which one we think should be running the offense most when CP3 isn't on the floor. As for the 2 and 3 spots, my staff and I have been discussing different scenarios, which, I'm sure you can understand, I'm not going to go into.

That said, we've noticed some things in these early games, such as quite a few players getting into foul trouble, and of course, we're monitoring the shooting situation. We'll try some new things tactically for the rest of the preseason and see how they work out. We'll also be experimenting with different lineups."

One possibility floating around the Internet fanbase is a line of Paul/Warren/Moon/Boozer/Maric, with Kalnietas/Morrow/Cook/Brockman/Washington as the second string and some combination of Banks, Mike Miller, and Tasmin Mitchell for the remaining two spots. Milovan Rakovic is a lock for the inactive list, despite the Heat's need for another reserve center.

Rookie Watch For Players Not Named Warren

Michael Washington - 3.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 35% shooting, 62.5% FT, +1.2, 0.6 PA/SF, 1.8 A/TO, 14 MPG
Tasmin Mitchell - 1.7 PPG, 2 RPG, 28.6% shooting, 100% 3 point, -0.3, 1.000 drive stop %, 0.6 PA/SF, 5.0 A/TO (Team high), 16.3 MPG (3 games)

Washington's shooting has been horrendous, but he's been a valuable rebounder and shotblocker off the bench, with better ball security than expected. If he can improve his shooting, he could become a legitimately worthy high-end reserve.

Mitchell got a tryout these last 3 games and the results were mixed. The Heat's front office doesn't like Mike Miller, but thus far Mitchell hasn't been able to show that he's able to replace the veteran in the rotation.

Musselman also said that the Heat would be sitting Chris Paul while Miami's franchise face rests from soreness in his arm.

"It's the preseason. We're not going to risk a long-term injury to Chris when the standings don't matter a damn. This'll give us a good chance to try different apocalyptic scenarios and see what comes out of them."

***

Context Notes
The story behind the Baron Davis article was that the Houston Rockets GM, Iceman, kept spamming everyone's trade block with him for like umpteen seasons in a row, so I thought it'd be fun to do a writeup on him.

Yeah, preseason was looking ugly.

[Izulde]

Flying Dutchman Looks A Tonic For Post Bench Woes

iBasketball Magazine is already calling Henk Norel to the Miami Heat

The Miami Heat's preseason shooting difficulties and their porous post bench situation appear to have some remedy in GM Jestor's latest free agent target: Dutchman Henk Norel, who averaged 12.1 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks while shooting 57.2% in 50 games and 41 starts last year for the Washington Wizards.

Initially a 2nd round pick, #42 overall, in last year's draft, Norel isn't without his detractors among scouts, who question his passing and ballhandling talents, which seems an odd fit for the Heat's security first Jestorball system. On the other hand, he averaged 1.7 assists to 1.8 turnovers as a starter, a ratio that should figure to improve under head coach Eric Musselman's tutelage. He also has high upside as a scorer and defensive rebounder and respectable upside in terms of his basketball intelligence.

Although many scouts consider him extremely inconsistent, Norel's shooting accuracy alone makes him a worthy challenger to Michael Washington and Jon Brockman in Miami's bench setup, as Washington is shooting 32% this preseason, Brockman 40%. Most importantly, he would give the Heat desperately needed height in the post, where they're currently fielding 6'9 Carlos Boozer and 6'11 Aleks Maric as the starters, and 6'7 Brockman and 6'11 Washington as the reserves.

As the basketball saying goes, you can't teach 7 feet.

Now it remains to be seen if Miami can win out in its aggressive bid for Netherlands native Norel.

Hideous Shooting, Scoring Makes For Painful Viewing

The only player on the entire court to shoot 50% or better: C Aleks Maric

We've seen some ugly basketball this preseason, but none was uglier than the Miami Heat's 69-55 win over the Portland Trailblazers. How bad was it? Only Aleks Maric shot 50% or better, hitting 7 of 10 shots for 19 points, 14 rebounds, and 2 blocks as the game MVP.

As for the rest of it, let's just say you may want to turn your kids' eyes away from the screen so they aren't scarred by these numbers.

Portland
27.4% team shooting
C Pavel Podkolzin - 5/14
F Joakim Noah - 6/13
F Carmelo Ahtony - 5/23
G Danny Green - 2/13
G Mike Bibby - 4/13

Miami
29.3% team shooting
C Aleks Maric - 7/10
F Carlos Boozer - 3/8
F Jamario Moon - 1/5
G Willie Warren - 5/15
G Chris Paul - 4/16

Although the Miami Heat went 4-2 in the final set of preseason games, there were some dark signs, such as Chris Paul continuing to struggle with his shot and his turnovers, although he did raise his A/TO ratio considerably. The team also stayed putrid on the road, losing both away games. One was a blowout loss to the reserves of the Atlanta Hawks, the other a semi-close game to a Pistons team sitting Greg Oden, LeBron James and Andrei Kirilenko. Daequan Cook and Willie Warren also continued their inconsistent performances, but Warren played better overall and the general consensus in South Beach is that the Wonderpaul backcourt will make its official debut in the regular season and be the starting set for the year, especially given Wonder Warren's upside.

There were still far too many games with too many turnovers for the Jestorball offense's liking, and it's a situation that will need to be remedied if the Heat wants to lead the league in fewest turnovers surrendered again.

On the positive side of things, the switch to a halfcourt defense led Miami to limit opponents to under 80 points in all four home wins. Although the Heat's front office prefers a glitzy scoring offense and a high-tempo defense, the halfcourt may be the best route to take heading into the regular season. The team also saw its shooting percentage as a squad increase remarkably with the switch, including 50% in the loss to the Pistons.

Carlos Boozer also came very close to a triple-double, with 16 points, 18 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 blocks in an 88-70 win over the Philadelphia 76ers.

"These weren't Chicago Bulls or Charlotte Bobcats style games by any means", head coach Eric Musselman admitted, "But maybe with our current roster, playing the grinding, ugly style is going to be the way for us to win games this season."

10 Finalists Out Of 30 GMs Chosen; Field Of Five To Be Decided

The 10 finalists in the NLL GM Lottery each receive this trophy. Maybe it can go in their sigs or something

The results of the first round of the NLL GM Lottery have been announced. Teams were asked in two heats to vote for the top five general managers they would select to lead their franchise if the NLL's GMs were released to a dispersal draft and the voting teams had a Top 5 pick to draft a GM.

The five top vote-getters in each heat have advanced to the final round, where teams will again be asked to vote for the five GMs they would want if they had a Top 5 pick in a hypothetical NLL GM dispersal draft, this time from the ten finalists, as opposed to a pool of 15 in the first round of voting.

Our ten finalists, in alphabetical order:

anywayz
The Portland Trailblazers front office head is one of the longest running executives with a single team. Voters cited his ability to have built two championship contenders in two different eras with the Blazers. Portland's known for its demonic defensive play, some would say to the point of detriment, arguing the Kevin Love for Joakim Noah trade as the prime example of this overcommitment. The Blazers had a very understated, but widely lauded offseason and Portland again figures to be among the top teams in the West.

Billy Bucket
Transformed the Mavericks overnight from one of the West's best teams into a fast track rebuild thanks to shrewd trades and exemplary drafting. Also hailed as one of the friendliest GMs in the league and stepped up in a league administrative role just when the NLL looked to be in danger of floundering, possibly closing up shop for good. Dallas is one of the young, soon to rise powers because of him.

Erick
Won a title with the Chicago Bulls and the only one to stop the Pistons from an unbroken string of rings. The NLL's most brilliant tactician and one of the GMs opponents are most wary of trading with. Took over a horrible situation in Orlando and in the space of a few seasons has them as one of the up and coming juggernauts in a loaded East conference and Southeast division. His blunt, abrasive style doesn't win him popularity contests, either with other front offices or with agents, but he exemplifies Machivaelli's axiom that it is better to be feared than loved.

Jestor
The undisputed NLL media king. How far does his Miami Heat's exposure reach? So far, we've seen mountain hermits sporting Heat caps and jerseys. His record as a day-to-day GM has been less sterling, although his capture of Chris Paul and Daequan Cook from the Timberwolves has been a masterstroke and he took Miami from a 27 win team to a belatedly DDS Records Book-accredited playoff berth. Also stole Willie Warren in the draft, but the knock on him is that for every brilliant move he makes, there's an equally bad one (see Monty Myles, trading Pau Gasol and missing out on Shawn Marion.) On the other hand, he finds a way to rebound from his errors, such as Aleks Maric and Carlos Boozer.

knightdemon
His trading work in the last season has been nothing short of magnificent. Kevin Love, B.J. Mullens, Tadija "Dragon" Dragecivic. He also snapped up Emeka Okafor in free agency and played a major role in raising Marion's free agency price. In short, he's taken the Bobcats from a mid-tier East team to one of the preseason favorites for the Southeast division title, with the offensive tour de force necessary to make waves in the postseason. There might be no other candidate with so strong a single season GM'ing peak.

Luka
One of two GMs left in the league to have won a championship. His Clippers have been about the same from season to season - good in the West, but not on that elite level, leading some to wonder if perhaps he wasn't living on the laurels of his prior ring. Then the offseason hit, and he snared Pau Gasol from the Miami Heat and added Ron Artest in free agency. Overnight, the old Luka was back and the Clippers were all of a sudden favorites in the West in some circles. He's also been frequently cited as one of the easiest GMs to work with in trade negotiations.

mgtr81
The single best GM in the league with regards to his understanding of the game. If there's something the Chicago Bulls head doesn't know about basketball, it isn't worth knowing. He also singlehandedly swung league obsession with defense over to a much more balanced approach, thanks to his electrifying, winning Bulls offense. A number of teams have adopted the offensive approach thanks to his success and influence, but the one strike against him, of course, is that for all his knowledge, Chicago still has yet to make it to even the East conference finals. But with the Bulls as young as they are, it might only be a matter of time before championships are again raining down in Chitown. Unanimously considered the greatest director of scouting and the draft the NLL's ever had.

Najira
Built the Spurs into a West power, then took a hiatus and had a ruin to rebuild upon his return. Turned San Antonio into a playoff team last year, then continued his construction work by dealing Ricky Rubio, his lone high value tradeable asset, for Thaddeus Young and Rodney Stuckey. Time will tell how that move works out, but from a sheer number of trading pieces standpoint, it was the right decision. One of the most widely respected GMs in the league, praised for his work in NLL administration in addition to his Spurs body of work. The one knock on him is that some feel he gives away elite players for considerably less than their full value. Rubio, Pau Gasol, and Greg Oden are just a few of the former Spurs in the league.

Taber
Wrote the book on rebuilding and provided the model for others, such as Billy Bucket, to follow. Like Erick, he's noted for his ability to make winning trades that turn out splendidly for his Cavaliers (see Richard Jefferson for Omer Asik deal). Not only rebuilt the Cavaliers, but turned them into one of the youngest, deepest teams in the entire NLL. Some say Cleveland didn't do much during the offseason, but Wesley Johnson begs to differ. Tabbed as championship favorites in many corners and that kind of fast rebuild from middling East team to championship favorites in a few season is the sort of stuff legends are made of.

tokyojordan
His podcasts and statistics charts have done much to enhance the league experience, both in the past and the present, but he also made the Knicks into one of the East's best teams for a good number of seasons and is picking the right time to go into rebuilding mode. Another universally respected veteran, his only drawback is that some feel he gave away his aging stars too quickly and too cheaply. Given his track record, however, it likely won't be all that long before New York's competitive again.

Conference Breakdown
East: 6 (7 if you include ranger, the Bucks GM who missed the final spot by a single vote)
West: 4

Division Breakdown
Atlantic: 1
Central: 2 (3 if ranger's included)
Southeast: 3

Southwest: 2
Northwest: 1
Pacific: 1

It's no surprise that the East is the strongest conference, as it has the greatest number of finalists. Let's not forget that the Pistons are still in their first year of the post-Donkey era, who would have been a lock to appear here and who would have tipped the scales even further.

Nor is it any surprise by these numbers that the Central and Southeast are the strongest and deepest divisions in the league. One thing to note, though: With the Mavericks and Spurs two rising teams led by GM finalists, it won't be long before the West regains some of its credibility and respectability back.

The polls will be open for voting later today.

***

Context Notes
So yeah. I kinda screwed up. Henk Norel put those numbers up for the Dakota Wizards, not Washington. I got teased quite a bit for that one.

I completely forgot I did the GM Lottery until now. 3 GMs were in the Southeast (me, bitter archrival Erick, and knightdemon). And yet, it was the Central that was the most difficult division.

Oh and if donkey33 hadn't left, he probably would have won this thing going away, thanks to the Detroit dynasty he built.

[Izulde]

No Surprises In Top 3

Fans watch the GM Lottery vote results board in Santiago de Compostela

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas had Chicago Bulls head Manu, Orlando Magic GM Erick, and Cleveland Cavaliers front office exec Taber as the odds-on favorites in The Top 5 NLL GM Lottery and those were the top three vote-getters in the final round. All three GMs have been cited for their ability to build teams and their knowledge about the game of basketball. Erick has a ring, ironically with the Bulls, while the Cavaliers and Bulls are both trendy picks to be dominant teams for a long, long time to come.

Placing fourth and fifth to make up the Top 5 were Knicks boss tokyojordan and San Antonio Spurs chief Najira, both longtime veterans who have also held considerable influence in the NLL's headquarters.

Rounding out the field were Mavericks GM Billy Bucket, Clippers GM Luka, Bobcats GM knightdemon, Trailblazers GM anywayz, and last and least, Heat GM Jestor.

The final results led many voters to question Jestor's entry into the final round, with one elector sneering, "The guy's an overblown windbag. Everyone's damn sick and tired of hearing about a team led by somebody who's never even made the playoffs and doesn't know his arse from his elbow. Now the rest of the candidates, they've actually done something worth talking about."

An awards ceremony will be held in New York City shortly before the regular season tips off, with all the finalists receiving small trophies, the 4th and 5th place finishers medals, and the top three GMs large trophies signifying their victory in the GM Lottery.

Heat A Wild Card In The Playoff Race

The pressure will be on PF Carlos Boozer to prove he was worth Miami's commitment to trading for him

Last year, the Miami Heat featured virtually an entirely new lineup after Jestor came in during the offseason and completely revamped the roster. The end result was a move from 27 wins to 44 and a credited playoff berth, even if the team didn't appear in the postseason due to an unlucky coin flip. This year, preseason predictions are mixed. Some are calling Miami for a dead-last finish in the obscenely deep Southeast, while Chicago Bulls GM Manu considers the Heat a division contender, but most are predicting the Heat will be a borderline team, one of a host of a squads fighting for a playoff spot in the forever ridiculous East.

We already know the projected starting lineup:

PG Chris Paul
SG Willie "Wonder" Warren (R)
SF Jamario Moon
PF Carlos Boozer
C Aleks Maric

Lurking in the wings and ready to take over if Warren falters is 6th man Daequan Cook. Marcus Banks did just enough to fend off Mantas Kalnietas for the backup point guard spot in the preseason, although Kalnietas might surpass Banks by season's end. In other guard news, Anthony Morrow figures to start off the year as the backup two guard, as word has it the coaching staff doesn't have faith in Mike Miller or second round rookie Tasmin Mitchell just yet.

The big man bench situation is equally as open to change as the guard spots. Jon Brockman seems safe at the PF spot for now, as the coaches love his rebounding, passing, handling, defense, and ability to draw fouls, but will Henk Norel, who didn't get a chance to show his game during exhibition play, push rookie Michael Washington out as Maric's top backup? We're hearing that for now, Washington's got the edge, but Norel will get a few minutes per game to show if he has any potential.

Miami will also be featuring a switch to a half-court defensive style this year, after having gone full court last season. Head coach Eric Musselman said that he believes the 40 minutes of hell defense the team ran last season contributed significantly to Chris Paul's recurring injury problems, and a more contained approach on D will help ensure the MVP candidate stays healthy.

Paul will need to shake off an uncharacteristically poor preseason if the Heat hope to go playoff hunting, much less challenge for the title. While Maric looked like a double-double guarantee, he and Boozer will probably not be enough to carry the team in Paul's absence, and Warren needs time to develop into what some are calling All-Star potential.

Our prediction? Assuming no health issues, Miami battles it out with chronic underachieving Washington for the #3 spot in the Southeast and likely the #8 seed in the playoffs. The Heat don't have their own pick this year, so making the postseason is the primary goal.

Heat Nation Turns Lonely Eyes To Yesteryear After Season-Opening Loss

PG Chris Paul's preseason shooting woes have carried over to the regular season

The Miami Heat dared the New Jersey Nets to beat the zone. Luol Deng got into one and that was all she wrote.

Deng, widely criticized for his poor shot selection, particularly by Heat GM Jestor, played zonebuster, hitting 12/28 shots and finishing with a game high 29 points in the Nets' 101-84 home win over Miami.

And then on the other end was Chris Paul. Traditionally an accurate shooter, Paul's 23 points, 7 assists and one turnover look good - until you consider that he was just 9 of 29 (31%) from the floor, a ghastly 4 of 16 (25%) from 3 point range. Paul, who also struggled in the preseason, declined to speak to reporters after the game. There's growing speculation in Florida that CP3's confidence is slipping, and indeed, much of the Nets' margin of victory came in a 32-20 fourth quarter advantage, Paul wildly taking shots to try and get the Heat back in the game.

Overall, the Heat shot just 38.6% as a team, 28.1% from behind the arc. Although they only allowed 8 turnovers, Miami head coach Eric Musselman was displeased with the results.

"No two ways about it. They kicked our butts up and down the court all night long and outplayed us in every facet of the game. We didn't hit the boards, we didn't play defense, and we weren't smart about our shot choices. In fact, this is one of the worst games we've ever played in my time here. The good news is, it's only the first game of the season, and there's still plenty of time to fix things."

Musselman refused to talk about changes the team plans to make in advance of tonight's home opener against the preseason title favorite Cleveland Cavaliers, but said they would be forthcoming.

Besides Paul's numbers, Carlos Boozer played reasonably well with 10 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists and a block in his official Miami debut. He shot 4 for 9 and although he had 3 turnovers and was outdueled by rookie PF Greg Monroe, he appears to be on his way to a solid season for the Heat.

4 Point Loss To Washington On Road Might Lead To First Win Vs Wizards In Miami

SF Shawn Marion was dazed after the game against Miami

The Miami Heat have gotten off to a rough 0-3 start, but two of the games have been on the road and one was against powerhouse Cleveland. In the last loss, a 91-87 defeat to the Washington Wizards in DC, there were signs things were starting to turn around.

Like Chris Paul going 11/20 for 28 points and Willie Warren with 6 points in 10 minutes, as the rookie staked a claim to get his starting spot back. In fact, with the Wonderpaul backcourt in place, or Aleks Maric having better than 1 of 5 night or the Miami Heat doing better than 7 of 12 of their free throw attempts, the away team wins this game.

"We're still having trouble establishing our rhythm", head coach Eric Musselman said afterwards, "but we're getting there. I expect a breakthrough very soon, and remember, the team had a bit of a rough start last year too, under the previous coach."

The most telling stat of the game: Shawn Marion going 0 for 13 for 0 points. Sure, The Matrix grabbed 11 rebounds, but he was completely and totally shut down by Jamario Moon, who had 10 points and 9 blocks.

"That's why we traded for him. He just completely took Matrix out", Musselman said.

***

Context Notes

I'm not going to lie - I was a little irritated at being #10 in the final GM Lottery poll.

Then again, we were starting off 0-3 and things looked just wretched for us, although I did love Moon's 10 point, 9 rejection game against Marion. Sweet revenge.

[Izulde]

0-4 Start Brings Usual Rumblings Of Movement

How the Miami Heat are wishing Carlos Boozer's free agency was true

These are dismal times in Miami. The Heat are 0-4 and they're struggling. Struggling bad and just one of two 0-4 teams in the league (Toronto and Memphis the other). Other winless teams? 0-3 Boston and 0-2 Milwaukee. It's a nightmare that's just never ending.

At the crux of the problem is Miami's lack of offense. The Heat are 28th in the league at 88.3 points a game, ahead of only the Bucks (88 points) and the Raptors (a horrifying 82.3) points a game. Miami's also next to last in team 3 point shooting at 27.9%, ahead of only the Houston Rockets, who cheerfully don't mind their 25% rate, given they're a shocking 3-1.

Where does it begin? How about Chris Paul, off to his worst start in years. 20 points, , 6.3 assists and a steal at career-low 42.9%, 32.3% from 3 point range. Admitttedly, much of that is from a disastrous opening night of 9 of 29, 4 of 16 from 3 point range, but it's still a sobering set of statistics.

Then there's the starting SG spot:
Willie Warren - 11/27, 3/10 from 3 point, 15 points, 3 rebounds per game as a starter
Daequan Cook - 10/22, 6/15, 2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 3 turnovers, 14 points a game as a starter

Neither Wonder Warren nor Cook have shown the ability to grasp the starting job as their own, although the rookie's 0 turnovers in 4 games will keep him there, as we all know how Jestorball values security.

Then there's Jamario Moon, the highest on-court +/- with 4.5, but shooting 29% to go with his 6.8 rebounds, 3.3 blocks and 1.5 steals, the bulk of it with 9 rejections in Washington the other night. His 2 turnovers a game are acceptable and his defense has been splendid, but is he really the right for this team?

The biggest scapegoat of all is Carlos Boozer. 8.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and a steal sound nice, but he's shooting a career low 40% and is -11 on the court, with a 10% drive stop rate and a point allowed per shot faced. He's also surrendering a team high 3.3 turnovers per game and has a 0.7 A/TO ratio, the worst among the starters.

Aleks Maric is the only player doing fine, but even his 16.5 points, 7 rebounds and 1.8 blocks on 66.7% shooting are below what the Heat were hoping for in his third season, even if he has a career high in scoring.

Miami's also bitterly regretting the Michael Washington selection, with his horrific 0.3 A/TO ratio and his 1.8 turnovers in just 14.3 minutes, negating his 4.3 rebounds and block per game. Henk Norel has posted comparable stats without the turnover headaches and he might well completely supplant Washington as the Heat's go to bench big.

Backup point guard? Marcus Banks has lost his ability to turn in a great A/TO ratio, but is the team really ready to risk Mantas Kalnietas's awful shooting when their offense is already sputtering?

Even Jon Brockman, who is off to a flier offensively, averaging 7 points on 52.2% shooting, has countenanced that by playing shockigly awful matador defense, allowing a team high 1.6 PA/SF, a key contributor to his team worst -12 net. Brockman, who is supposed to be known for his D, has been a bizarre inverse of himself early in the season.

Or maybe it's the coaching staff that simply doesn't know what it's doing. After all, Monty Myles is averaging 12.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.8 steals, shooting 49.1%, 40% from 3 point range in Houston. Not quite the All-Star potential GM Jestor claimed an offseason ago, but far better than his Miami trainwreck days.

In short, little, if anything, is going right with this South Beach outfit. The worst of it is, their pick resides with the Lakers, who are thrilled with the Heat's ineptitude. And with the latest Chris Paul rumors saying he'll head to the Knicks when he hits free agency, well, it appears Miami has indeed been struck with the Curse of Monty Myles.

Heat Win Second Straight; Trade Rumors Swirling

C Aleks Maric has been high-stepping it for the Heat this season

Miami Heat head coach Eric Musselman called last night's road game against the preseason Southwest favorite San Antonio Spurs the most critical test thus far in the early season. If the results are any indication, the Heat may finally have turned the corner after an 0-4 start, winning their second straight by a comfortable 15 point margin, winning all four quarters of play.

In fact, it was arguably Miami's best game of the year, as they shot a blistering 59.7% while holding the Spurs to 41.6%. The return to Jestorball fundamentals yielded just 10 turnovers and some great performances carried the team.

First and foremost was Aleks Maric going 12/15 for 25 points, 9 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks. It was Maric's third 20+ point game of the season and thus far he's shooting 68.3% from the floor. Fellow frontcourt man Carlos Boozer hit 8 of 14 for 18 points and, most importantly, didn't give up a turnover. Then there was Chris Paul, who might have had a triple-double if he hadn't been limited to 24 minutes and fouled out. As it was, CP3 connected on 6 of 8 shots for 16 points, 10 assists, 7 rebounds, and just one turnover.

As one East scout attending the game said, "The Heat are starting to look a little scary. They've won the last two games with Paul playing 25 and 24 minutes, and they haven't needed him to be the #1 option. If he takes command in the scoring department, this Miami team might scare some people. As it is, they're going 11 deep and keeping their guys fresh. That's not something you saw from last year's team and it's shocking considering most people thought they were starter five heavy, 8 deep at best."

That depth showed itself as Jon Brockman continued his startling good shooting form, going 4 of 8 for 10 points and 6 rebounds in 18 minutes, keeping his season percentage at a surprising 50%. Also, Marcus Banks showed why Heat GM Jestor trusts him as CP3's backup, generating 5 assists and a steal with no turnovers in 16 minutes.

The game was not without its casualty, however. Rookie Willie Warren went down with a concussion and he's questionable for the next game against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are, along with the Heat, one of the teams who figures to fight for a playoff spot in the stacked East. If he doesn't play, Daequan Cook is expected to start.

A West scout attending the game also chimed in on the Heat.

"It's still early yet, but it's important to note that after this game, Miami's in the top 10 in most defensive categories. Not something you'd necessarily expect from this squad, but getting Jamario Moon really changed the Heat's complexion, and for the better. He has a +17.5 net, +8.8 when he's on the court.. His defensive playmaking in particular is breathtaking to watch and who cares if he's shooting a career worst 33.3%? So far, the coaching staff has found ways to limit the shots he takes. He's pretty much Miami's answer to Andrei Kirilenko. And to think people laughed when they traded Pau Gasol for him and a late first."

Musselman was much more cautious after the post-game wave of praise.

"We're 2-4. That's not even .500. Come talk to me when we have a winning record. Until then, we have a long way to go."

Trade Whispers
It wouldn't be the Miami Heat if there weren't rumors going around about possible deals. The latest gossip links the Heat to interest in Hamed Haddadi, Kevin Love, Joakim Noah, and in what might seem unusual, Vince Carter. Jackson Ayorinde provided analysis on each situation.

Hamed Haddadi
It's no secret the Heat love Haddadi. In fact, Jestor was hoping the Iranian would fall to him in his first draft with the Orlando Magic. Haddadi's recent decision to go to free agency might bring the asking price within the Heat's range, who have picks to offer, like the 2016 Suns 1st they got in the Boozer deal. On the other hand, Haddadi has struggled a bit out of the gate, shooting just 42.6%. Part of that is his inconsistent minutes, which have ranged from 27 to 37 to 42. There's also the contract distractions. On the other hand, Haddadi's proven himself in the postseason. Then again, his skill set seems similar in a lot of ways to Maric's and I'm not really sure that's what Miami needs.
Chances of Happening: Very, very remote

Kevin Love
Look up Jestorball PF in the dictionary and you'll find Love's picture. Huge, huge mancrush in Miami for this guy. He'd be a perfect fit in their system, but there's two caveats: 1) At 6'9, he's too short to play center. 2) The Bobcats know damned well Love would flourish in Miami's system so Charlotte would probably demand a blood price of Willie Warren. If the Heat didn't just acquire Boozer, maybe it'd be a different story. But because they did, I see giving up Warren as far too rich a cost for Miami's blood, particularly since it'd shallow their SG depth at an alarming rate.
Chances of Happening: Slim to None

Joakim Noah
The big man version of Moon, only he has beautiful passing and handling in his own right and he's a better shooter than you'd think. At 6'11, 238, he's a little thin to play center, but could probably do it in a pinch. He could potentially be a superlative 30+ minute a game 6th man backing up Boozer and Maric, eventually taking Boozer's place at PF once Warren develops and they don't need Carlos to fill the third star role in the Jestorball system. The two stumbling blocks here: 1) I haven't heard anything about the Blazers' asking price. If Portland wants Warren, though, the deal's probably dead on the table. 2) Contract. Noah's making $11.5 million. The Heat have $3.88 million in cap space. That's roughly $8 million to make up. Miller's $6.1 million expiring goes in for sure. Then probably one or two other players, with a pick included. Anthony Morrow would be a great fit for Portland's parched offense. If it's Day 90, I could see Michael Washington included as well.
Chances of Happening: Possible, although it depends on what Portland whats and if they can sort out the contracts

Vince Carter
He's 36 years old, but VC still has game and would probably beat Miller for the reserve SF spot. Big-time 3 point gunner and accurate, too, who could play both swingman spots and be a more balanced alternative to scoring on a stick Morrow. Two questions remain: 1) How much will Carter decline over the course of the season? 2) Will Miami be willing to overlook his tendency to have poorer showings in the playoffs? Naturally, this would be the least costly of the options and I'm hearing the front office is seriously considering it.
Chances of Happening: Very Possible

Don't sleep on
Serhiy Gladyr
-Beautiful shooter who can't find minutes with the Clippers. On the other hand, melted in the playoffs last year, hitting 22.2%, 14.3% from long-range. That's a fast way to get yourself uninvited to South Beach.

Miami Heat Players Likely To Be Gone By The Deadline

1. Michael Washington
Already complaining about being shoved down to the 12th man spot and passed over for Henk Norel, a second round pick last year. Stellar rebounder and shotblocker in the making with potential to improve on his inside shot and already has pretty good passing for a big man. Could develop the same in handling. The big knock on him is his discipline and IQ. That said, he's got very good work ethic and has the potential to be a terrific traditional bench big, able to play the 4 and 5 and if he manages to improve his discipline and basketball knowledge, he might even blossom into a starter. Perhaps the Indiana Pacers, who seem to love a similar player in Cheikh Samb? The difference is, Washington's already a better shooter and scorer and is a much more balanced player than Samb ever will be.

2. Anthony Morrow
Understand this - the front office really, really likes Morrow. He's one of the best bench scorers that doesn't get credit and he's an incredible gunner. The problem is, he's stuck behind Warren and Cook and has trouble finding minutes in a crowded Miami swingman situation. He's also the type of piece that has considerable value in some other front offices around the league, like say, Chicago.

3. Mike Miller
His expiring is a very attractive piece and although he's worked his way back into the rotation, he can still get moved for the right situation. Still has very solid game and is a savvy veteran.

Miami Heat Who Won't Be Going Anywhere

1. Chris Paul
Forget all the drama and buzz of last year and this past offseason. Yes, the Detroit Pistons sorely tempted the Heat with Amir Johnson and Miami's 2014 1st back, which would have been a lotto as the Heat plummeted to bottom-feeder status, but that temptation passed without the Heat biting, just as every other offer has gone declined. But the fact of the matter is, CP3 will stay in Miami for the rest of his career if the front office can help it. Jestor's made aggressive moves to turn the Heat into a winner while simultaneously building the future by stockpiling draft picks and stealing young players like Maric and Wonder Warren. And while we're looking ahead, CP3's top 3 priorities are:

1) Playing time
2) Money
3) Playing for winner

Starter and franchise face? Check. Money? You know Miami's throwing a max deal at him. Check. Playing for winner? We just showed the above moves and the Heat will still be a winning team by then, if not outright contending. Check.

2. Aleks Maric
17.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks. An improving FG % and point scoring each year. Okay, the rebounds are low, please draw your attention to the following - 2.0 A/TO ratio. That's unheard of for a big man this side of Love, and that alone, on top of everything else Maric brings, means he's going nowhere.

3. Daequan Cook
Want to know the guy Miami gets the most calls about? It's not CP3. Not Maric. Not even Warren. It's Cook, who is absolutely loved by specific general managers around the league. Like Jestor. Like Manu. Like Najira. Like new Golden State Warriors GM Josh, who was reportedly immediately shot down when he mentioned Cook during trade talks. Daequan's one of those players who excel beyond what scouts view them as (Jestor insists that Martell "Webby" Webster, another cherished player, is another one of these), and that, combined with his cap-friendly contract, means there's almost no chance Cook leaves Miami.

And by almost no chance, we mean it like your super hot ex girlfriend telling you there's almost no chance you'll get back together while she's banging a bearded guy on the back of a Harley.

***

Context Notes
For whatever reason, my teams seem to be notoriously streaky. [b]Chris Paul[b]'s early struggles irritated me to the point where I considered (as I would repeatedly) trading him.

But at least we were steadying ourselves a bit after that shoddy 0-4 start. Man, I loved Jamario Moon at SF. Just loved the guy.

[Izulde]

$10 Million Man Showing The Talent Former GM Talked About

Swingman Monty Myles says 'Holla atcha boy!'

Last offseason, Miami Heat GM Jestor drew laughter and disbelief around the league when he said Monty Myles had All-Star, if not franchise player potential after he traded for Myles is a stunning sign and trade. The Myles experiment lasted just 21 games before he was shipped to Houston in the Aleks Maric deal.

Now? The Rockets are a surprising 6-4, tied for the Southwest lead, and one of their leaders is none other than the $10 million man himself.

He's averaging 13.9 points, 5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.5 steals, shooting 52.7% from the floor and 40.7% from downtown. Myles leads the Rockets in scoring and is second in assists, third in steals, and is second on the team with a 3.4 A/TO ratio. Could Myles at last be showing the potential that Jestor spoke of?

"You know, people get all wild and crazy about ish. I just go do what I do", said Myles, "If haters gonna hate, they gonna hate. Ain't no shame in what I do, holla! A lot of people be mad, brah, cuz I'm stylin' all over them."

Other than picking up Houston GM Gary Chan's lingo, Myles has posted a sterling 1.000% drive stop rate and is a key component of Houston's relentless, havoc-wreaking defense.

While not quite on an All-Star level, it's the best season Myles has ever had as he sits in the same starting SF spot the Miami Heat originally had planned for him.

With the San Antonio Spurs in disarray, the 2014 1st obtained in the deal might also well turn out favorable for the Rockets.

Of course, one can't say the trade turned all bad for the Heat. Maric is part of Miami's three star system, Devon Hardin was included in the deal that landed the Heat Carlos Boozer, and Mike Miller has done adequately in spelling Jamario Moon as the reserve SF, in addition to the financial benefits Miami gained from unloading Myles's lengthy, expensive contract.

Myles concurred that it worked out for both sides.

"Yeah, you know, I've got it going on here in Houston, the Spurs aren't doing so hot, and they're all busting a nut over Moon and Warren in Miami, so it's all good playa, cuz I'm the number one hustla who got mine. I got the rings, I got the money, I got the starting spot, leading the Rockets in scoring... I'm all that *and* a bag of chips, baby!"

Musselman Not Content With Five Game Win Streak

Miami head coach Eric Musselman has high expectations for his Heat

It's Miami Heat practice on a warm, humid fall day in South Florida. The team's running a scrimmage. Chris Paul drives and Marcus Banks strips the ball away, netting a steal.

"That's a lap, Paul!" shouts Eric Musselman, the Heat's head coach.

The franchise star head off the court and starts running a lap.

A few series later, reserve Henk Norel puts up a shot that's viciously blocked by Jamario Moon. Jon Brockman picks up the ball and starts toward the other end.

"Lap it, Norel!" yells Quin Snyder, the first assistant.

And the 7 foot Dutchman, too, begins a lap around the outside track.

Aleks Maric watches from his chair, sitting out the practice with food poisoning picked up at a joint in Milwaukee.

"You know how most teams try to avoid turnovers? Here, it's a religion", he says.

And so it is. For every turnover a player commits in practice, he runs a lap. At the end of practice, the entire team runs an extra lap for every 5 turnovers committed the game before, even if they didn't play or didn't commit a turnover. The Heat are just back from a doubleheader, so they run a lap for the 9 turnovers committed against the Bucks, and then two more laps for the 14 committed against the Timberwolves two nights ago.

On the wall of the Heat's practice facility are two large whiteboards. One has the Southeast division standings, with Miami 5-4 and in last place. The other is the team total turnover rankings. Miami, with 12.3 turnovers per game is second behind the Cavaliers, who have 11.3 a game.

Written underneath, "We still aren't #1!"

But the Heat do rank #1 in fewest blocks allowed, a statistic shrugged off by Musselman, as is the mention of Miami's five game win streak after an 0-4 start.

"Look at the standings. We're in last place and 2.5 games out. If the season ends today, we don't even go to the playoffs. We're still not good enough. One ninth of the season is over, and we're still not where we need to be. The streak is nice, but we need to keep it going."

Ever since Musselman brought the team back to what he calls the Jestorball fundamentals, the Heat have reeled off five straight wins, with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. They've vaulted into a Top 5 scoring defense and have scored 105 points or more while holding their opponents to 97 points or less in each game after starting the season with four straight sub-100 point showings. Even more impressive is the fact that the streak includes two sets of back to back games, including the last two, both on the road.

We've covered the Mavericks and Spurs games, so we'll take a look at the last three victories.

First was a home game against the Bucks, a 105-73 dismantling keyed by Aleks Maric's 16 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks, Jon Brockman's incredible 18 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists and a block off the bench, and stifling team defense that forced 21 turnovers and held Milwaukee to 36.5% shooting, 27.8% from 3 point range. Meanwhile, Miami shot 50.6% and had just 5 turnovers.

Then came the road doubleheader. The Heat beat Minnesota 109-97, riding Carlos Boozer's 13 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists, Aleks Maric's 18 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and blocks, and Willie "Wonder" Warren's first 20 point game of his career, with 21. Not to be missed is Henk Norel's 4 for 4 shooting for 12 points in as many minutes off the bench.

Against Milwaukee in the Bradley Center the next night, Miami found it tougher going, but still came out 105-92 winners, thanks to Chris Paul's best game of the year - 30 points, 9 assists, and 3 steals, including 6 of 9 from 3 point range. As a team, the Heat was 13/21 from behind the arc, an obscene 61.9% 3 point conversion rate. Carlos Boozer just missed the double-double with 18 points and 9 rebounds and Marcus Banks was white-hot from the bench, connecting on 6 of 8 attempts for 13 points in 13 minutes. Miami shot 50% and although the Bucks were 45.2% themselves and 60% from 3 point range, they had 6 fewer long ball attempts than the Heat.

It of course remains to be seen how long Miami can keep things going and if the Heat can climb out of the cellar, but one thing is clear.

This team is in much better shape than they were two weeks ago and determined to prove preseason predictions of 4th or 5th place in the Southeast wrong.

Artest Acquired By Jestor In Gay Deal

Is Ron Artest a likely Heat addition?

After the recent decision by the Los Angeles Clippers to cut Ron Artest, people in South Beach immediately began to wonder if the Miami Heat would put in for him.

GM Jestor has an affinity for Artest, having acquired him while in Orlando, and while it's questionable as to whether he would start ahead of Jamario Moon, he would see considerable minutes off the bench.

Heat officials declined to comment, although an anonymous source said Miami will be putting in an offer for Artest's services soon.

Heat Win Streak To 7; Tough Schedule Ahead

Ron Artest has been the talk of the league following his dismissal from the Los Angeles Clippers

The Miami Heat have now won seven straight games, but even at 7-4, they sit in last place in the juggernaut Southeast. A growing rivalry between the Heat and the Wizards has gained more steam after the two GMs exchanged words over who had the better squad, adding to what was already started by the free agency war over Shawn "The Matrix" Marion.

But that's not the only Southeast intrigue going on these days. After league maverick Ron Artest was cut from the Clippers in effort to make franchise star Dwight Howard happy, the Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards, and Miami Heat all jumped in for the mercurial, defensive stalwart forward, along with the Sacramento Kings.

"Ron and I have a history, a relationship in this league. I traded for him before and Erick, the Magic's GM after me, dealt him and Martell "Webby" Webster after I came in. I've never quite forgiven him for either of those trades," Heat GM Jestor said.

Jestor went on to admit that Artest would be a reserve for now if he signed, but that he would see considerable minutes and, in event of injury to the swingmen, particularly Jamario Moon, would be moved into a starting spot.

"Only Ron and his agent know what he's thinking right now, but realistically speaking, there's only two teams in this race as far as I'm concerned, and that's the two teams who have a past link with him and the ability to give him significant playing time both now and in terms of an injury. That's us and the Sacramento Kings, who have Shane Battier and Ben Gordon, whom he played with in Denver last year. The Magic traded him and are overloaded with swingmen. The Wizards don't have any prior history and they've got James Anderson, Nick Smith, Shawn Marion, and Wally Szczerbiak all in the mix at the swing spots."

The conversation then moved into a discussion of the Heat's win streak.

"It's good to get back to winning," Jestor said, "But we've got a real test ahead of us... a back-to-back, with a home game against Portland and an away game in Atlanta. Those are two extremely critical games, both for continuing to show the preseason haters wrong, and to gain further ground in the Southeast race, narrowing that 2 game gap."

In the first of Miami's two most recent victories, a 105-75 ripping of the Jazz, Chris Paul showed MVP form with 32 points and 4 steals and Carlos Boozer banged in 15 points and 15 rebounds. Mike Miller and Daequan Cook each scored 10 points off the bench, but the real star was the Heat's defense, which forced 13 steals and held Utah to 39.5% shooting. The team also had just 6 turnovers.

Last night, the Heat beat the Atlantic-leading 76ers, 119-112 on Chris Paul's 22 points, 8 assists, and 5 steals, with Carlos Boozer and Aleks Maric each scoring 19, and the bench again coming through. Jon Brockman and Henk Norel scored 14 and 12 respectively. Miami proved great at thievery, stealing the ball 16 times, including a game-high 6 swipes by Willie "Wonder" Warren and kept the turnover total in single digits at 9. Their 11.7 turnovers a game now leads the league in fewest allowed per contest.

"We didn't play great yesterday," Jestor said, "We let them shoot 58.9%, 70% from 3 point land, and got outscored 68-58 in the second half. But the defense relaxed a bit after our 61-44 halftime lead, and Coach Eric Musselman told me he wanted to keep the team in good shape for the upcoming doubleheader against Portland and Atlanta."

Other Notes and News
In a whirlwind of big deals, Kevin Love, Hamed Haddadi, and Joakim Noah, three players rumored to be among Miami's targets, all got traded, including Haddadi and Noah for each other.

Jestor shrugged it off, saying it wasn't likely Miami could have gotten any of those players anyway, as the Heat are taking of a course of tight control with their assets, particularly with the team's recent form.

That didn't prevent one change from the Heat's roster happening, though. Milovan Rakovic, Jestor's second round pick last season, was cut, a move that insiders say is to free up a spot for Artest should he sign. The GM offered a slightly different take.

"The thing of it is, Milovan wasn't happy here. Henk and Michael Washington have both passed him on our depth chart and we didn't really see much chance of his getting any minutes. We've decided to let him go and allow him the opportunity to find a place where he can get more playing time."

With Rakovic's dismissal, there are now no players from Jestor's first Miami draft still with the team. Sergio Llull and Derrick "Double V" Byars were traded to the Houston Rockets as part of last season's Aleks Maric deal.

Some have suggested that the Heat could also make a play for Amar'e Stoudamire, the Philadelphia big man lavishly targeted in free agency by Jestor in Orlando, with a media campaign every bit as glitzy as his effort for Marion. That bid, too, ended in failure, as the Magic lacked the financial resources to capture him.

Such seems to be the case here, as the trade for Carlos Boozer has left the Heat without the cap space necessary to take on Stoudamire's contract and with Miami's largest assets that would willingly be traded in the form of draft picks, it appears the Heat will not be in the Stoudamire sweepstakes.

***

Context Notes

There's a persistent superstition in sim leagues that to write about a successful team or player is to invite the Article Curse, whereby doing so will invite failure and doom on the covered subject.

Case in point? I'll let Billy Bucket of the Dallas Mavericks demonstrate:

Ah the old article curse.

He (Jestor's edit: Monty Myles) went 3-13 for 6 points next game after this article, and then redeemed himself with a massive 2 point game after fouling hard in 19 mins.

Someone write about minnesota, I play them next!

I don't remember the result of the Artest claim offhand. I can't find him on the rosters on in free agency, so it appears he retired before the current season. I *think* he went to Sacramento if I remember right. It was either that or the Magic. I know it wasn't us or Washington.

In any case, it was good to be winning.

[Izulde]

24 Point Win Crushes New-Look Blazers; Cook To Miss 3 Games

Henk "The Flying Dutchman" Norel is quickly becoming a Jestor favorite in Miami

If this game against the Blazers was meant to be a test of how good the Miami Heat are, then the Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Bobcats, and the whole league might have to take the Heat seriously as not just playoff hopefuls, not just Southeast Division contenders, but legitimate threats to win a ring.

105-81 was the final score, with Miami winning all four quarters en route to their 8th straight victory.

There was Chris Paul with 24 points and Aleks Maric overcoming a tough shooting night against fellow West transfer Hamed Haddadi in the latter's first game with the Blazers to double-double the poor man's 10 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks.

But the real stars of the game were none other than two Jestor favorites. One was Marcus Banks, continuing to show why Miami loves him so much, scoring 12 points with 7 assists and 2 steals to one turnover in 18 minutes.

And then there was Henk Norel.

The 7' Netherlands native officially joined Rik "The Dunking Dutchman" Smits as Hollanders who've achieved pro league nicknames tonight with an incredible 10 rebound, 4 assist, 3 steal, 4 block outing. His long arms windmilled everywhere, grabbing boards, throwing up rejections, swiping balls, and distributing. Those who sneer at his 1 for 5 shooting? He's still shooting 50% on the nose for the season and The Flying Dutchman finally had his first free throw miss of the season.

It was an inspired performance that had the home crowd celebrating in jubilation. The Heat shot 48.2%, 46.7% from long-range to the Blazers' 40.8%, 35.7%. Jamario Moon in particular shut down Carmelo Anthony, holding him to just one completion in 10 shot attempts and a season low, maybe even career-low 2 points.

Miami also won the turnover battle, 11 to 18, the Heat's trio of point guards forcing newcomer Luke Ridnour into 5 turnovers and Mike Bibby into 3.

Now at 8-4, the Heat stand a full game out of the Southeast lead and face a challenging game tonight on the road against the Atlanta Hawks.

"Every contest in the Southeast is critical", head coach Eric Musselman noted. "We have to settle down, get back into our focus, and beat the Hawks tomorrow night."

Miami will have to do it without Daequan Cook, who badly sprained his wrist and will likely be kept out of the next three games as a precautionary measure. It's expected that Anthony Morrow will step in his place unless the Heat sign Ron Artest before Cook returns.

In any case, it's a sweet, happy night in South Beach, even with Cook's misfortune.

Recent Cut Found With Depth Chart/Strategy Papers

Milovan Rakovic's already lackluster pro career took a hit with his arrest for stealing confidential Miami Heat documents

Former Miami Heat 2nd round pick Milovan Rakovic was arrested in Atlanta, Georgia today after police found him in possession of documents detailing the Miami Heat's depth chart and game plan. Rakovic, recently cut from the team, admitted that he stole the papers a few hours after being told of his dismissal.

"I hope those bastards lose every game from here on out. Bad enough to have that Washington kid ahead of me, but Henk (expletive) Norel? Mother of God, they are such fools there!"

Rakovic intended to deliver the papers to the Hawks before tonight's game against the Miami Heat, but allegedly retired NFL quarterback Brett Favre, vacationing in the city, took the papers from Rakovic when the two met at bar. They were promptly intercepted by the bartender, a Miami Heat fan.

The documents are in the process of being returned to the Miami Heat. Team officials declined comment, except to say they would be reviewing their security measures to make sure this doesn't happen again.

Miami fans hope this doesn't mean the Curse of Rakovic as the Heat try to extend their eight game winning streak.

10-8 Heat Still 8th In The Playoff Race

Mercurial Miami Heat GM Jestor erupted after the team's loss in Denver

It seems somehow fitting that this Heat team is one of the streakiest in the league. A four game losing streak followed by an eight game losing streak, then a two game losing streak, a two game winning streak, and another two game losing streak (and counting). The front office is, after all, headed by Jestor, the executive known for his boom and bust moves and his wild mood swings regarding the season.

That tempermental variety was in full force after the Heat's loss to Denver, a game in which Miami turned the ball over 20 times and allowed the Nuggets to shoot 50.3%, the fourth straight road game the Heat have surrendered 50+% shooting to an opponent. Naturally, all four of those games have been losses, although just one was by more than 8 points.

According to reports, the GM ripped into the refs and railed on the team for its lack of ball security and dreadful 3 point shooting (2 of 12 - 16.7%). The Heat have struggled from behind the arc this year, hitting just 32.9%, 23rd in the league. Jestor vowed to immediately go out and find a reliable 3 point shooter, preferably at small forward.

Still, in spite of the troubles, the Heat are still holding on to the last playoff seed in the East with their 10-8 record and if they can manage to regain a more consistent winning form, Miami could see itself elevated further above the drop zone, in spite of losing to a Nuggets team that had two players out with broken noses.

6 of 8 Losses Has Front Office Fuming

Fans are furious over team's sudden lack of futility

At this point, the Miami Heat's poor run of form is about more than its inability to convert 3 point shots. In losing six of their last eight games, including three straight defeats, it's become about the Heat's inability to guard anyone. Multiple opponents in the last eight games have shot 50% or better and this is on a team that employs Jon Brockman, Jamario Moon, and Chris Paul on defense, with the only horrible defender Anthony Morrow.

Daequan Cook and Mike Miller shoulder much of the blame, both in shooting slumps. Miller in particular last made a shot 2 weeks ago and even then he was 2 of 8. Cook is shooting an astonishingly low 40.8% and his value has dropped so low, only one team inquired about him after the Heat let it be known they were testing his value.

Jon Brockman, after an initial hot start, has gone back to his poor shooting ways, enough so that rookie Michael Washington is finally starting to get some non-garbage minutes. In his first true time, a 21 point loss to the Wizards, Washington had 4 rebounds and a block in 8 minutes.

The front office has made several inquiries for a 3 point shooter to bolster their offense, but for the most part, the cost has either been too high or it was a player deemed untouchable. One possibility did arise, but that trade can't happen until Day 90 and, as the old saying goes, anything can happen.

Although Miami is exploring a shakeup, Chris Paul, Willie Warren, and Aleks Maric are all declared non-negotiable by the Heat. Carlos Boozer becomes trade eligible in a couple weeks, but the front office's refusal to add compensation for his massive salary means he likely won't move. Jamario Moon is trade eligible, but given the Heat's weakness at SF, isn't likely to go unless Miami acquires a suitable replacement elsewhere. Mike Miller's expiring would doubtless be attractive to teams hunting for cap space.

An inside source, however, doubted Miami would be trading at all.

"Teams right now are only after two things, young superstars and picks. Miami's not going to deal CP3, Warren, or Maric, despite all the calls they get about them, and the Heat aren't in a must contend now mode so they're not likely to deal the Clippers first. In fact, the Suns' pick is more likely to move, what with that donkey in charge there now.

If anything or anyone goes, it'll probably end up being the Knicks' 2014 2nd. But even that's iffy. A lot of GMs right now are in overvaluing their players mode. We just talked to a team last week and they wanted a first round pick for a 33 year old bench guy on a small expiring contract. That's how absurd it is right now."

***

Context Notes
Right around this time donkey33 came back and took over the Phoenix Suns, which ruined the value of the first we got in the Boozer deal, simply because he's the one who orchestrated the Detroit Pistons dynasty.

Trade market was being a real bitch. 3 Southeast teams (us, Atlanta, Charlotte) and the Milwaukee Bucks were all in a scrum for the last 2 playoff spots, and other GMs were trying to take advantage of the situation and get at least an overpay, if not an outright trade rape.

But while I've occasionally overpaid, I've never let myself get bent over. Not even when we were back down to .500.

[Izulde]

Veteran Off To Good Shooting Form

Miami Heat fans hope G Jarrett Jack can bring some accurate shooting to the team

The Miami Heat have been hunting for improved depth in the back court and after much phone calls and discussions around the league, they've made a small move, acquiring 30 year old combo guard Jarrett Jack from the New Jersey Nets for the Heat's 2015 2nd round draft pick.

Jack hasn't received a lot of playing time this season, but when he has, he's done extremely well, shooting 66.7% and, more importantly for Miami's 3 point woes, 80% from beyond the arc. He's also yet to miss a free throw this season, addressing another weakness in the Heat's game.

"This is one of those tiny trades that doesn't get a lot of hype, but one whose impact could pay off significant dividends", GM Jestor said at the press conference announcing the deal. "It gives Coach Musselman another weapon to play with in our backcourt."

Just where Jack figures in that backcourt rotation is anyone's guess. Marcus Banks has been solid as Chris Paul's top backup, albeit inaccurate from 3 point range and in a timeshare with Mantas Kalnietas, the latter of whom has continued his traditional poor shooting form, even if improved from prior years.

There's also the possibility the newest Heat could see time at the SG spot, as Miami might want to move Daequan Cook to the backup SF spot until rookie Tasmin Mitchell returns from injury, giving the Heat of luxury of benching the putridly shooting Mike Miller.

Jestor refused to comment on whether this trade signals a possible move of Cook and furthermore declined to even confirm whether the Heat have been shopping the underachieving 26 year old.

"We're about improving the team and snapping this cold run of form right now. This is a trade we feel improves our team, with a very low risk attached", the GM said.

Miami On 3 Game Win Streak - Face Tough Road Series Next

Jarrett Jack has made a favorable impression so far in Miami

The first Florida War skirmish of the 2013 season was a thrilling matchup that ended in a narrow 109-106 victory for the home Heat. Demar Derozan was magnificent in the loss, battling through injury for 36 points and 5 rebounds, effortlessly shooting. After the game, Miami GM Jestor remarked that he was ready to call Derozan "one of the top 3 players in the entire league".

Chris Paul, Miami's own MVP candidate, struggled from the floor (4 of 12), but still finished with 24 points and 10 assists to 1 turnover due largely to going 14/14 from the free throw line. That effort mirrored Carlos Boozer's, who despite shooting 4 of 13, double-doubled for 15 points and 14 rebounds, thanks to 7 of 9 from the charity stripe.

The real surprise of the game was Jamario Moon. Traditionally known for his poor shooting, he made 7 of 8 field goals, posting an excellent all-around game of 14 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals, and 3 blocks. He also held Kobe Bryant to 40% shooting, 12.2% below his season average.

Aleks Maric was also an efficient shooter and had 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks by game's end. Unfortunately, he also turned the ball over 5 times. That same turnover total was committed by newcomer Jarrett Jack, who was 3 of 7 for 6 points and 4 assists in his debut.

Head coach Eric Musselman informed Maric and Jack after the game that they would both be doing 100 stomach crunches after the team's next practice, which shocked Jack.

"I knew Miami took their turnovers seriously, but I didn't know they were that fanatical about it. Kind od crazy, but cool, too", Jack said afterwards.

Some feared a letdown against the Boston Celtics after that emotional win, but the 125-92 rout proved otherwise. Aleks Maric led all scorers with 23 points, Carlos Boozer doubled again with 15 points and 12 rebounds on much more efficient shooting, and Chris Paul scored 20.

But the real story was the bench, where Anthony Morrow connected on 8 of 13 shots for 18 points, Daequan Cook scored 10 points in 17 minutes, and Jarrett Jack showed his lesson learned with 10 points, 8 assists, and just 1 turnover on 5 of 8 shooting.

A tough two-game road series comes up next against the Sacramento Kings and the Los Angeles Lakers.

"Every game is important," Musselman said. "We've struggled on the road this year, so this is our chance to get things turned around."

The Heat currently hold the 8th seed in the playoffs, following their last victory.

Heat Hold 8th Seed By 2, Still 5 Games Out

Make no mistake about it - PG Chris Paul is still the team MVP

Miami Heat GM Jestor said repeatedly before the season began that how his team did this year depended on the early part of the schedule. We're 30 games through the season and the Miami Heat, at 17-13, are in 8th place in the East, two games in front of the surprising .500 Indiana Pacers for the last playoff spot.

They've won their last two games, beating the Lakers 97-79 on the road via Chris Paul's 27 points and 10 assists and Carlos Boozer's 29 points and 11 rebounds, before shredding the Hawks in Miami for their second Southeast victory. That 114-83 blast came courtesy of Chris Paul's 23 points and 2 steals, Anthony Morrow's whopping 21 bench points, and newest Heat Jarrett Jack's 10 points, 8 assists, 4 steals and just one turnover.

A difficult Detroit test awaits next, but this article is more about an overview of the first 30 games.

The Good
1. The three star system is going as planned
*Chris Paul - 20.2 points, 6.9 assists, 1.7 steals, 5 A/TO ratio - 49.7% shooting, 40.8% from long-range
*Aleks Maric - 16.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.8 blocks - 55.6% shooting
*Carlos Boozer - 14.5 points, 8.7 rebounds - 51.4% shooting

Paul and Maric are having career best seasons in terms of their shooting accuracy and the three stars have played extremely well off each other. This is Boozer's best rebounding season since 2009 with the Bulls and Maric is not only having a career high in shooting %, he's also posting a career best in points scored per game. Another interesting statistic - Maric's 0.8 PA/SF is tied with legendary defender Jamario Moon and Maric's backup, Henk Norel, for best on the team. While Boozer has been something of a disappointment on defense, his rebounding and offensive game have more than made up for it.

Maric becomes a RFA after next season, but you can bet the Heat will do everything in their power to lock him up in the extension period. As one source says, he's been the most untouchable player on Miami's roster, with all inquiries on him receiving a curt, "No." Another curious note: Maric is actually 3/5 (60%) from 3 point range this year.

2. Miami's sacrosanct attitude towards ball security again has them #1 in fewest turnovers allowed
At 11.1 turnovers a game, they're averaging almost a full turnover a game less than the second place Cleveland Cavaliers and both those teams are the only ones even close to averaging 12 or under a game, with the third place Kings averaging 12.9 giveaways.

That ball security also translates into fewest steals surrendered per game, or rather, tied with the Cavaliers at 5.4 steals allowed. This emphasis on ball security is critical for a team whose bench is largely considered as not up to snuff with the rest of the East's playoff teams.

3. Anthony Morrow's re-emergence
The 21 point outing against the Hawks was just the latest sign in Morrow's revitalization. He's playing with increased confidence after finding his way back in the rotation and is shooting a career-high 50.5%, 44.8% from 3 point range. He may only be averaging 7.5 points a game, but that's in 13.3 minutes. That point total will increase and may break double-digits by season's end, as he's been averaging around 15-16 minutes a game since re-establishing himself. The front office will almost certainly do whatever they can to re-sign him in free agency.

4. Improved Team Defense
One of the biggest reasons why the Heat are in better shape at this point than they were last season is improved team defense. They rank #7 in fewest points allowed at 93.3 points a game, just 0.1 behind the #6 Wizards, and are #8 in turnovers forced at 16.9 a game. They also rank tied for #9 in steals per game at 8.7 with the Raptors, 0.1 steals behind the Traiblazers.

The Bad
1. Unhappiness among a few reserves
PG Mantas Kalnietas and PG Marcus Banks are unhappy with having been supplanted by Jarrett Jack in the rotation and PF/C Michael Washington still feels he should be getting more minutes over Jon Brockman and Henk Norel. The coaching staff will monitor the situation, but at least none of the three disquieted benchmen are close to causing problems as of yet.

2. Opponents' shooting % is trending up.
Despite all the good things on defense, the Heat are still allowing too many shots to be made by opponents, even if their 47.3% grades out at an average 18th. More telling - only the Bulls, who are all about the run and gun, have a worse shooting % allowed out of the East's playoff teams. Heat coach Eric Musselman will have to work on this if Miami wants to be successful, both in the regular season and the playoffs, should the team get there.

3. Daequan Cook's decline
His shooting percentages are back up to 43.3 and 34.8 from long range, but Cook's dropoff is one of the most confusing storylines of Miami's season. He's gone from the starter all the way to part of a time-share with Jack and Morrow off the bench all in the course of the season. Much more telling, even when the Heat tested his value on the market recently, only one team inquired about him. His stock, both on the Heat and around the league, has dropped significantly.

The Ugly
1. Mike Miller
The coaching staff figured out fairly early on why the front office hates him so much. He shot a career worst 31.6% before getting permanently benched, first in favor of second round rookie Tasmin Mitchell, then in favor of the Jack/Morrow/Cook rotation. More tellingly, Miami has gone 5-1 since permanently banishing him to the bench. His $5.1 million expiring contract won't be in South Florida next year. That's already a given. He'll be renounced and sent packing.

2. Jon Brockman's defensive struggles
For a guy known for his defense, the team-high 1.3 PA/SF is shocking, but even more stunning is his team worst -15.9 net. His -4.7 on court is better only than Tasmin Mitchell's and it's possible he could see more of his minutes taken by Washington if that disturbing trend continues.

3. Team 3 point and FT shooting
32.1% (#26) and 73.7% (#25) are among the worst in the league. Morrow's return to the rotation has helped out the 3 point shooting significantly, but none of the Heat big men shoot better than 77.8% from the charity stripe, with Brockman's 50.8% the most offensive inaccuracy.

Trade Rumors
Things have been very quiet around South Florida in terms of trade talks. With the Heat refusing to even consider trade proposals for Chris Paul, Willie Warren, or Aleks Maric, and the market dead for Daequan Cook, the chances of a deal being made seem quite remote.

If a trade does occur, there's a greater chance of it occurring around Day 90, when most of the roster opens up for eligibility. Boston Dave is said to want Jon Brockman back with him and it's possible some of the other currently restricted players outside of Warren and Paul could interest teams.

But one inside source called a trade by one of the most active GMs in the league "highly unlikely", saying that the Heat were happy with the composition of their team for the most part and don't want to risk disrupting their carefully composed chemistry or rotation.

***

Context Notes
Man, I loved that Jarrett Jack trade for the spark he gave us immediately following the deal. As most people who trade with me know, I tend not to place much emphasis on 2nd rounders, and am always willing to deal them, unless it's a projected early 2nd.

As I'm reposting and rereading these articles, I'm starting to notice that defensive struggles are a common trend for Jestorball teams.

[Izulde]

Duo Combine For 57 Points, 8 Steals In 23 Point Victory

The Wonderpaul backcourt... How sweet it is

When the Miami Heat fell over themselves with glee after Willie "Wonder" Warren dropped to them with the 14th pick in the draft, one of the biggest sources of joy was in the marketing department, which immediately developed plans in the coming years for a Wonderpaul backcourt campaign.

That campaign got off to an earlier than expected start after Warren won the starting SG spot in preseason, thus starting the Wonderpaul pair of guards before anyone thought would happen.

And last night against the Charlotte Bobcats, Wonder Warren and Chris Paul gave us all a little taste of what the Wonderpaul backcourt will mean in the coming years.

In Miami's 113-90 win, the two combined for 57 points (32 for Paul, 25 for Warren) and 8 steals (5 for Paul, 3 for Warren). Together they shot 22/34, or 64.7%, with the only weaknesses Paul's uncharacteristic 6 turnovers and Warren's rough three point shooting night (1 for 5).

"It's been great here in Miami, learning from guys like Chris, Marcus, Jarrett... I still have a long way to go, but I feel lke I'm getting better and stronger with every practice and game," Warren said afterwards.

"I love running alongside Willie. Sure he'll have his ups and downs, but I see him growing a lot from the beginning of the season until now. Besides, who doesn't love the catchiness of Wonderpaul?" grinned Paul.

The rest of the NLL may not be singing such sweet songs if this excellent preview is an accurate forecast. Instead, they'll be lying awake at night trying to figure out how to stop the melodious harmony of these two guards.

Franchise Star's Shooting Woes Cost Heat

The Heat might be 2-1 on this recent road trip if it wasn't for Chris Paul's struggles

Perhaps when he retires, Chris Paul should be a mason. That's the wisecrack some are making after his recent difficulties.

Over his last four games, Paul is shooting just 22/67, or 32.8%. In that time, the Miami Heat has gone 2-2, including an 11 point loss at Portland and an 8 point loss in Phoenix. The loss against the Suns in particular burns, as more accurate shooting by CP3, who was 6 for 17 (35.3%), could very well have won the Heat the game.

"It's frustrating right now", Paul admitted. "But I've just to keep fighting through it. Everybody goes through slumps and I'm in one right now."

On the plus side, the Heat are still in 7th place in the East, albeit mere percentage points ahead of the Bucks, and they remain 3.5 games ahead of the Atlanta Hawks, the 9th place team.

Heat's Victory Over Clippers Invokes Nostalgia

The man who might have been a focal point of the Heat's frequent media coverage

The Miami Heat's 119-105 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers was a thing of beauty. Chris Paul snapped out of his shooting slump to pour on 32 points and 7 steals, Aleks Maric put up 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks, and Jarrett Jack scored 13 to again lead the second team.

But the sight of former Heat Pau Gasol doubling for 15 points and 10 rebounds in Clippers red and white as he faced off against Carlos Boozer, who was everywhere with 16 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals brought back memories of the offseason past.

Then, as many of the league know, the Miami Heat considered T-Macing Paul and trading him to the Detroit Pistons, who were dangling young power forward phenom Amir Johnson and the Heat's own 2014 1st, plus expirings to make up the difference in salary.

It was an offer that caused Miami GM Jestor a lot of sleepless nights as he considered the direction of his team. The Heat were just coming off a coin-flip miss of the playoffs and, truth be told, didn't really look to have the firepower necessary to contend for a title. Nor did they appear to have the ability to upgrade and fight for a ring.

Dealing CP3 would have meant a full-fledged commitment to a rebuild centered around the young big men, Johnson and Maric, and with whomever the Heat picked with the 14th pick in the draft. It also would have guaranteed Miami a lottery pick in the upcoming class.

Ultimately, however, the Heat decided to another direction. As Jestor said a few weeks after the non-trade, "It came down to two main factors. The first one was, we would essentially have been handing the Pistons the keys to another three or four straight titles. This league already lacks in parity; that deal would have essentially destroyed it."

"But the second, and most important one, was that I simply wouldn't have loved the team like I did before. Getting CP and Daequan (Cook) was my first major blockbuster here in Miami and Chris is the franchise player, the identity of Miami in a lot of ways. It just wouldn't be the same without him around here, especially after I swore to myself we would be the team that finally gave Chris the long-term career stability he's never had in the NLL."

Of course, the Clippers played a key role in the process as well, as Jestor admitted.

"Last year, our biggest problem was the small forward position. We simply didn't have anybody we felt comfortable giving the starting spot to, and it killed us. We spent all last season trying to get a guy in here we felt happy with, but it never happened.

So after we released the article detailing possible destinations for Pau, who I'd already determined had to be traded, both to explore the T-Mac possibility and to get younger and in better financial space, we got a few calls. One of them was the Clippers, who we'd had discussions with periodically and who we completed the Marcus Banks deal with.

They wanted to know if there was any way they could get Pau, with the exception of Dwight Howard and Kevin Durant, who will never leave the Clippers as long as Lukc's around. We took a look at their roster and our scouting notes and instantly fell in love with Jamario Moon. Here was the answer we'd been looking for all along. Obviously Moon alone wasn't going to cut it, though, so we asked for a first as well, and they agreed, putting in their 2014 1st.

The other side of this deal, as you all know, was freeing up the cap space to pursue Shawn Marion. Obviously that didn't happen, but once that Moon situation rose, the board changed dramatically. We'd solved our #1 problem and would now have the cap space to go after Pau's replacement.

Before that deal came about, however, we were still strongly considering the trade for Johnson, our first and expirings for Chris. As much as I personally hated it, it made too much sense from an organizational standpoint."

Jestor admitted to not remembering what other potential suitors offered for Pau, but did say, "If I recall correctly, nothing really jumped out at us, which, as you know, was one of the major stumbling blocks in getting a T-Mac approved. I can't say what other direction we would have gone in if things hadn't turned out how they did with the Clippers."

But let's say Miami did manage to find a different situation for Pau, one that would have allowed the trade to go through. What would have happened?

Effects for Miami
-Building around Johnson, Maric, Warren, with Rondo likely running the point
-Guaranteed lottery status and likely last place in the division as many predicted in the preseason
-They would have sat tight in free agency and not pursued anyone major

Effects for Detroit
-The CP3/LeBron backcourt would be dominating the league and the Pistons would likely have the best record right now, rather than tied with the Bulls for second place in the Central.
-Robert Swift would've stayed
-Thaddeus Young and Rodney Stuckey would have stayed

Effects for Lakers
-Largely to be determined, as Rondo has not had a major impact and it's unclear yet how the draft pick they got would have unfolded

Effects for Wizards
-No Robert Swift
-Marion would have come back at a much cheaper rate
-Orlando would be leading the division, as Washington would have sorely missed Swift's defensive prowess in the post

Effects for Spurs
-Rubio would have stayed
-San Antonio doesn't lead the Southwest, as Young is the team's leading scorer and he and Stuckey are #2 and #4 on the team in +/-. Stuckey is also the Spurs' #4 scorer.

Effects for Rockets
-They have a possible lottery pick

And that's just the teams who are directly affected in the first or second degree by that trade.

Of course, Johnson's 16.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, steal and 2.6 blocks a game would have looked wonderful in Miami, and his scoring numbers would have been even higher as the Heat's #1 option on offense, perhaps even breaking into the 20s.

What Might Have Been The Effect on the Draft
Jestor said he'd still take Warren if the CP3 deal had gone down, but if Willie "Wonder" Warren was off the board, then the pick might have changed.

"Ekpe Udoh was the guy we were originally leaning towards if Warren was off the board and that's probably who we would have taken, to fit the team needs. But I can guarantee you that if CP3 was gone, we would have drafted Alexey Shved, who we considered the single best floor general in the entire draft class outside of John Wall, who we considered about equal to Alexey in terms of what we look for in the passing and handling of our point guards. In fact, we were seriously considering taking Alexey anyway if Warren fell through and we had CP3. That's how much faith we had in him. For the Hawks to get him at 25 is outright criminal. "

Asked about his future plans and if the team is exploring any moves, the GM just grinned.

"As a matter of fact, there's one player in particular we're very much interested in and have had conversations with a team about. That team is still considering its options, but we're hoping to be able to seal the deal for a player who very much fits the Jestorball philosophy.

There was also another player we tried quite hard to get, but the other team patently refused our offer and nothing could sway them to change their minds. So for that player, we went in another direction and it worked out well for us, just as Boozer has been a great recovery from us after Marion went back to the Wizards."

***

Context Notes
Ah, the what might have been game. It's one I like to play every now and again, though not so much with my own personal life, as that tends to lead to panic attacks and depression.

But with sim leagues? Absolutely. It's fun, then. Especially when you consider CP3 was prone to bouts of inconsistency. Interestingly enough, donkey33, who headed Detroit when I joined the league, tried to pry CP3 from me, but I refused because I didn't want him and Lebron James next to each other.

And yet, I was willing to consider it with his successor GM, not only because it would have fit our then rebuilding plans, but because his replacement was nowhere near as good a GM. That's not a bash of the new guy as much as it is an acknowledgement of the donkey's talent.

[Izulde]

55th Overall Pick Sparkles In Starting Debut

SF Tasmin Mitchell was all smiles after an excellent game in his debut professional start

When team doctors announced that defensive fulcrum Jamario Moon would miss the next four games with a sprain, consternation clouded the Miami Heat coaching staff. Although thankful it wasn't a more serious injury, Moon has been universally considered one of the team's most valuable players, to the point where the front office has refused to listen to any trade offers for him.

The coaches looked at their options to fill in for Moon, of which there were a few.

Daequan Cook
The one most fans expected to see in the starting lineup. Despite a continual demotion since the season began, Cook has shown that he can play the 3 and is known for his good defensive skills. He's also capable of being a solid shooter. But the staff didn't feel wholly comfortable pitting the 6'5 Cook against the 6'10 Earl Clark, so they continued the discussion.

Jon Brockman
When he first came to Miami in a cap saving move by Charlotte, he started at SF, and did fairly well there before transitioning to PF, first in favor of Monty Myles, then Mike Miller. Although he's had a bit of a down season this year, he showed excellent rebounding and defense last year and is terrific at drawing fouls and passing the ball. Going into the discussion, he was head coach Eric Musselman's leading option, but the coaches opted to explore all avenues.

Tasmin Mitchell
In spite of just four appearances before this game, the front office is really high on the 2nd round rookie, taken 55th overall. As the conversation continued, the coaches realized they, too, were more comfortable gambling with the rookie than their other two options, especially given his 1.000% stop rate.

Surprised murmurs greeted the former LSU star's name when the starting lineup was announced. And then Tasmin Mitchell went out and had a great pro starting debut in the Heat's shockingly easy 108-85 win over the Hornets.

He wowed the crowd by hitting 7 of 10 shots, 3 of 5 from downtown for 17 points and hitting the glass for 6 rebounds while giving up just one turnover. On the defensive end, he helped limit Clark to just 9 shot attempts and played a key role in forcing Mr. Versatility into 4 turnovers, Clark's highest total since December 6th against the Knicks.

Of course, the game would not be Miami's without a balanced attack featuring all five Heat starters scoring 12 points or more, led by Chris Paul's 21 points, Carlos Boozer's 12 points and 13 rebounds, and Anthony Morrow's 11 bench points. Miami also shot an astounding 50% (11 of 22) from behind the 3 point arc in the rout.

"Man, you never forget hearing your name called as a starter for the first time. Not in high school, not in college, and especially not in the NLL, the world's greatest basketball league," a beaming Mitchell said after the game. "The faith the coaches put in me really fired me up and made me want to go out there and do great."

He also had no illusions about replacing Moon in the lineup.

"Are you kidding? Jamario's one of the best defenders in the whole league. I'm just hoping to help the team win and maybe see myself get more into the rotation in these four games", said Mitchell.

Latest Trade Rumors
Talks have resumed for a player the Heat have coveted for some time now. If an agreement is reached, it'll come through as part of what is expected to be a landslide of Day 90 trades around the league. Sources in the front office again refused to name the player in question.

Daequan Cook continues to only have one suitor with the room to to play him. Rumor has it the front office will be revisiting that potential destination's assets again and debating whether or not to pull the trigger.

Blockbusters, Smaller Moves Both In The Offing

There's no doubt Emeka Okafor is out of Charlotte

One of the biggest free agent disappointments, Emeka Okafor, is on his way out of Charlotte. League observer Jackson Ayorinde noticed recently that the big money bust has been a coach's DNP the last two games, which suggests something big is going down.

"Any time you have a guy sitting that early ahead of a trade, it means two things: 1) The team getting the player is wanting to make sure he's healthy, but more importantly is 2) The team dealing him wanting to make absolute certain that the trade doesn't get blown to injury," Ayorinde said.

"With that situation, and the recent deals, I'm calling Okafor to the Phoenix Suns for Aubrey Coleman as the central player pieces, possibly with other additions in terms of picks and/or players. It fits too neatly. The Bobcats dealt off a lot of their guards and have been building their post presence. Coleman is one of the biggest targets out there and the Suns have the cap space to absorb Okafor's contract. Charlotte wants Coleman badly, and they'll do anything to make sure this works, including sitting Okafor for a few games.

The man they call donkey is well known for his love of defense and for his distaste of Darrell Arthur in terms of his favored scheme. An Okafor/Noah frontcourt is one that will shut down opposing teams ."


Amare pic actually has relevance

So if the Okafor for Coleman scenario is true, where does that leave Philadelphia's Amare Stoudemire, believed by many to be going to Phoenix for Coleman and Arthur?

"As crazy as it sounds, possibly the Bobcats," Ayorinde suggested. "Charlotte is rumored to be making a ton of moves and they have the cap space and the Knicks' first round draft pick, not to mention Tadjia "Dragon" Dragecevic. My guess is it'll be something like the Knicks first and Dragon for Amare as the central pieces.

That would give the Bobcats a lineup of:

PG Tony Parker
SG Aubrey Coleman
SF Gerald Green
PF Amare Stoudemire
CE B.J. Mullens

That's the kind of starting five that could push the Bobcats back into the East's playoff conversation while still allowing a build for the future around Coleman, Green, and Mullens. Of course, point guard would still remain an area of concern.


Celebrations abounded in the Miami Heat's offices

Closer to Ayorinde's main area of coverage, word out of the Miami Heat organization is that they've secured the services of the player that was tops on their Affordability Chart, which is a list of trade targets that the teams views as holding great value for the Jestorball system without likely causing complications to team chemistry or being a prohibitive cost.

Although even Ayorinde's sources remained tight-lipped, speculation on the street says the team will still own the Clippers' 2014 1st, believed to be the Heat's most valuable discussable trade chip around the league.


Let's not forget, Phoenix said Darrell Arthur was gone, too

But wait, what about the Suns' Darrell Arthur, who management said is already gone? If not Philadelphia, then where?

Ayorinde suggests there's any number of teams who might be in on the young, multi-talented, high shooting accuracy power forward.

"In fact, I think just about any team in the league would be interested in him. But if my suspicions about Okafor are correct, then it becomes a team who has a scorer to send who can play defense, and who also can match salaries, or maybe even a team with defenders and picks to offer.

That leaves, in my opinion, a team like Orlando, with its surplus of picks and swingmen. I could also see him going to Denver for something like Matt Harpring and some kind of pick, as the Nuggets right now are faced with a Monty Myles-like situation in Walter Sharpe. Boston may be another possibility, as Michael Redd would be a great fit for Phoenix's playoff hopes if they can make salaries match.

There's certainly other teams, and I may well be wrong on this, but these are just a few possibilities that came to mind."

Ayorinde also noted there's rumored other deals in the pipeline, but those he has little strong evidence on, so he's only commenting on those he has a basis on which to make an argument.

NLL's Deepest Division Due To Make Day 90 Noise

Amare Stoudemire... a man lost in a Philly desert, by a 76 gas station

Preseason pundits called the Southeast the NLL's deepest, and a little over halfway through the season, that's correct. Even the cellar-dwelling Charlotte Bobcats, at 19-21, are just a half-game out of the East's 8th spot, currently held by the Milwaukee Bucks. That 47.5% winning rate is also the best of any last place team in the league, well ahead of even the Indiana Pacers, the Central's last team at 40.5%.

The Southeast features a star or more on every team, at least after the Atlanta Hawks pulled the brilliant deal that landed them a franchise face in Carmelo Anthony. In fact, it's such a strong division that it's not out of the question that four of the five teams will go to the playoffs.

Besides star talent, however, the division is also known for trade-heavy GMs, most notably in Charlotte, Miami, and Orlando. Therefore, it's no surprise to learn that no less than four of the division's five teams are expected to make Day 90 moves.

Here's a capsule of each team, in division standing order:


Orlando Magic - 29-14
The Magic have pressed on despite injuries to DeAndre Jordan and Demar DeRozan and stand two games in front after sweeping the Wizards the last two nights. Reports out of Atlanta have called for Amare Stoudemire to the Orlando Magic, and a Cleveland Plain Dealer columnist also suggest the 76ers franchise star is headed to the Magic Kingdom. Orlando certainly has the draft picks to do it, but they're also over the cap. Rashard Lewis's expiring contract would make the deal work financially, along with any number of first round picks. In any case, it's already guaranteed the Magic are making a major move according to most media outlets, and it's reasonable to assume Orlando's hunting for a title.
Projection: A blockbuster acquisition en route to capturing the Southeast title



27-16 (2 GB)
The Wizards started off hot, but have lost 9 of their last 11, including an ongoing 5 game losing streak. The streak cost them their spot atop the division and now they're in danger of falling into third place. Jackson Ayorinde points to the Wizards' bottom third rankings in blocks, steals, and turnovers forced, along with Washington's #19 ranking in turnovers per game, and further comments, "Basically, Washington lacks the ability to be disruptive on defense and they also turn the ball over far too much for an elite team." No trade rumors have surfaced, but that doesn't mean the front office isn't working the phones behind the scenes.
Projection: A minor move at most, and either 2nd or 3rd in the Southeast



Miami Heat - 27-18 (3 GB)
The Heat have overcome an 0-4 start to put themselves firmly in third place and knocking on the door to second, only a game back. They've won 6 of their last 8, including three straight, and their last two losses were by a combined 9 points. The front office has already confirmed a move, and while it's not a blockbuster, it's one the team's very happy about. Daequan Cook's status continues to be up in the air, with most calling it 50/50 whether he's traded. Don't expect any major moves, though - Miami is pleased with their situation overall.
Projection: One confirmed smaller move. Cook possibly going sometime after Day 90, or at the trade deadline. 2nd or 3rd in the Southeast



Atlanta Hawks - 20-22 (8.5 GB) - by the way, that's one of the coolest alt logos I've seen
We all know how the Hawks made the huge splash with Carmelo Anthony, although injury problems have kept Atlanta from flying closer to the top three teams. Rumor has it that the Hawks were one of the teams in play for Amare Stoudemire, but then the Magic reportedly horned in with a better offer. Gossip says Atlanta was poised to do a makeover similar to what Miami has done since Jestor took over at the tail end of the 2011 season, but it appears the Hawks have been cockblocked by their Southeast foes. Still look to see some trades, though.
Projection: A few smaller trades, 5th in the Southeast



Charlotte Bobcats - 19-21 (8.5 GB) - I like neon, too
Jackson Ayorinde called both Amare Stoudemire and Aubrey Coleman to the Bobcats recently. And indeed, there's some rumors that agree with him on the Stoudemire to Bobcats scenario. But we're also hearing that Emeka Okafor will be staying in Charlotte after all, and that he was tied to a possible Stoudemire deal, unlike the Okafor to Phoenix for Coleman as the main player pieces like Ayorinde suggested.

All of which leads to one burning question: Have the Philadelphia 76ers been playing half the Southeast against each other? It's an interesting question, one without a definitive answer right now. In any case, there's a growing consensus that Ayorinde got the Coleman to Charlotte part of the equation right, just with different pieces. The overhaul that the Bobcats are going to make should be enough to push them into the 4th spot in the Southeast and into that final 8th seed in the playoffs, just like last year.
Projection: At least one blockbuster, other shake-up moves - 4th in division

***

Context Notes

As Ocons735, the Hawks GM noted:

My favorite part of being in this league is our division. You can't sit back and settle for what you've got. Even if you are a top team in the league (Washington, Orlando) because everyone is always looking to make moves.

Unlike say, the Central, where mgtr81's Bulls and ranger's Bucks were known for loyalty and slowness to make moves (which isn't to say that they didn't trade, of course.. just not with the frequency of the Southeast).

I'll be honest - It's been so long I don't remember who this player is that I keep talking about in these articles. It was someone I really wanted though, apparently.

Oh, and Tasmin Mitchell? My fave late 2nd round pick of all time.

[Izulde]

Heat Received Offer It Couldn't Refuse

Former starter Daequan Cook is on his way out of Miami

News once considered unthinkable became reality today when sources in the Miami Heat organization leaked that former starting SG and Most Improved Player vote recipient Daequan Cook will be traded as part of the team's Day 90 deals.

"It was pretty much fated to happen once Willie Warren passed him on the depth chart and the logjam in the backcourt with Cook, Anthony Morrow, and especially Jarrett Jack happened," one source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said.

Besides the numbers game, it's believed finances played a role in the deal. Chris Paul and Aleks Maric are due for extensions next season, and every available dollar will help the Heat avoid salary cap issues in the final season of Carlos Boozer's massive contract.

Just where and for what Cook will be dealt remains a mystery, but not for long, with Day 90 trades to hit league offices shortly.

Brockman, Miller, Knicks 2nd To Pacers For Nevill, Vinicius, Hawks 2nd

The Miami Heat are hoping Luke Nevill will help them cut down NLL championship nets in the future

A furious trade bid war that erupted over superlative passing big man Luke Nevill was won by the Miami Heat, who secured the young Aussie by sending Jon Brockman, Mike Miller, and the New York Knicks' 2014 2nd to the Indiana Pacers for Nevill, Marcus Vinicius, and the Atlanta Hawks 2014 2nd round pick.

Nevill, 23, is clearly the main capture of the deal for Miami. An impressive specimen at 7'1, 265 lbs, what really draws the interest of teams around the league is his amazing passing skills, the likes of which haven't been seen in this large a big man in a long time, possibly as far back as Rik Smits or even further than that.

"We've wanted Luke for a long, long time, and have aggressively pursued him time and time again," a jubiliant Jestor said at the press conference announcing the deal. "He's the very epitome of Jestorball with his size and passing and handling abilities and he showed in Indiana that he can play the 3 to 5 spots all quite deftly, both as a reserve and as a starter."

The GM acknowledged that winning Nevill's rights via trade is only a battle victory, with the free agency war the important test. The Chicago Bulls, who share some similar philosophies with the Heat, will be gunning for him, as will the Houston Rockets and numerous other teams.

"The good thing is, by winning this round, we've got our foot in the door, and we're prepared to fight with every available resource to keep in Miami for the rest of his career. We've never had a player that so perfectly fit our system as Luke and I'll be damned if we lose him", Jestor emphatically remarked.


What role Marcus Vinicius will play is anyone's guess

Marcus Vinicius was included to match salaries, but the 6'9 Brazilian might see time if injuries occur. At any rate, it's certain that he has more trust from the front office than his counterpart in the deal, if for no other reason than his better shooting accuracy.


Hurt filled Jon Brockman when he heard of the deal

The Miami Heat notified Jon Brockman's agent about a week before the trade that it might be going down, and both Jestor and head coach Eric Musselman talked to him about the situation, but that didn't prevent the forward from feeling wounded.

"Yeah, I'm mad," Brockman said. "I waited all free agency while they chased Shawn Marion and this is how I get rewarded? To be dumped on Day 90 like Monty Myles last year? That really, really hurts."

"But I understand where the organization is coming from and I'm glad they told my agent about it beforehand, even though he's been hard to get a hold of lately. And like both Jestor and Coach Musselman said, I'll get a lot more PT with the Pacers, who are up and coming. All I have to say is, I can't wait to kick the Heat's pace."

The 24 year old has struggled on the defensive end this season, normally his bread and butter, after a tumultous offseason that included being unappreciated in free agency and going from returning to the starting PF he held last season with the Heat, all the way down into a timeshare with rookie Michael Washington.

"Jon did great for us last year and was the only reason why we made that deal with Charlotte for them to get their cap space. He was our blood price for the Bobcats and in this deal, he was the blood price for us getting Nevill," Jestor said.


Much-maligned Mike Miller and a girl with gonzagas

Then there's Mike Miller, who never had the trust of the front office after coming over in the Aleks Maric package deal. He lost the faith of the coaching staff as well after shooting terribly this season and he'll simply be a slightly bigger expiring contract for the Pacers.

New York's 2nd round pick projects to be significantly higher than Atlanta's probable mid-2nd selection, but the trade ensures the Heat still have a first and a second in the next draft, even if neither one is their own.

Cook to Dallas For Alabi In One For One Swap

Some fans think Solomon Alabi slightly resembles a tall, black Yoda

In the Miami Heat's second Day 90 deal, they shipped one-time starter Daequan Cook to the Dallas Mavericks for Solomon Alabi, who has already earned the nickname "Black Yoda" from a small group in the Heat's fanbase.

At 7'1, 251 lbs, Alabi continues the really big, big man trend first established by Henk Norel's free agent signing. The rookie, taken 19th overall out of Florida State, is known for his defense and shotblocking, accurate shooting, and potential as a rebounder. His presence means that Miami's own first round big man, Michael Washington, will be buried on the inactive list.

Just as important as his physical skills, however, is the fact that Alabi represents a security blanket for the Miami Heat. With both Norel and Alabi's fellow Day 90 acquisition Luke Nevill due to hit unrestricted free agency, the team needed an option they were comfortable with in case of the worst possible scenario of both Nevill and Norel taking their talents elsewhere.

"It's all about insurance when you're faced with a possible free agency situation like we have looming with a number of our players," Miami Heat GM Jestor said. "Solomon gives us that safety net in case something unfortunate happens with Henk and Luke. We also see him as a possible option to be a starter down the line, as Willie "Wonder" Warren replaces Carlos Boozer as the third star in our three star system. It's entirely possible that Solomon could take on the Jamario Moon role of the shutdown defender who plays smart and defers to the three stars."


The rise and fall of Daequan Cook in Miami was certainly epic

Just a few short months ago, Daequan Cook was overvalued and deemed untouchable. His status change is a sign of how quickly things change in the NLL.

Last season, the Heat viewed him as an underrated, key pickup as part of the Chris Paul blockbuster that was the first trade of Jestor's tenure in Miami. Cook flourished in the starting SG role alongside Paul and even garnered a vote for Most Improved Player.

But then Willie "Wonder" Warren arrived with the 14th pick in the draft. Warren not only had All-Star potential, of the legitimate kind, but he also beat Cook out for the starting spot in preseason. Then came the awkward need to balance minutes between Cook and Anthony Morrow, and the backcourt situation only got more crowded and complicated with Jarrett Jack's arrival from the Nets.As a result, Cook was forced to play out of his natural position at SF, which negatively impacted his shooting.

It all added up to a likely deal, and although the market was originally soft for the 26 year old, with one serious suitor, the Mavericks stepped up with an offer the Heat fell in love with.

In fact, it's a great move for Cook and his new team. Dallas is very much a playoff team in the weak West and he'll have the opportunity to again claim a starting spot alongside a supremely talented point guard, this time with rookie John Wall.

Then there's the financial aspects to the deal. By trading Cook, the Heat shed over $2.6 million from their cap number next season, money that will prove critical if they want to retain Nevill, Norel, et. al.

The move also affects Miami's draft stance. With the influx of talented young bigs and with Morrow and Jack both expiring, the emphasis now shifts to a perimeter player, likely a guard. Nevill's ability to play SF and Tasmin Mitchell's fantastic performance in a four game starting stint after Jamario Moon's hamstring injury mean Miami could well be looking for a new combo guard to replace Jack. The draft clas is purportedly very deep at SG, so the chance for the Heat to find the versatile sort of guard they'd be looking for is quite good.

"Daequan was a wonderful player for us and we're sad to see him go," Jestor said. "At the same time, we feel like this was the best possible move for all parties involved. He goes to a young, fast-rising team where he'll again get to start, and we're in a better place financially and in terms of our draft and offseason positioning."

***

Context Notes

It's a cliche, but one of my favorite sayings is still "You can't teach 7 feet." Throw in my love of passing big men, and our depth issues in the post and you have these kinds of trades.

I was incredibly stoked to get both these guys. I knew Nevill was going to get boku bucks on the free agency market, so before I committed to him, I wanted to try him out with a half-season rental. This is a very common trait of Jestorian trade philosophy - get the guy in your system and see how he works first, especially if you can pick him up cheaply enough, as was the case here.

Another core element - If you start sucking at shooting the ball, unless you have great work in other areas, you're not going to last on this team. And considering Cook was a 3 point specialist, his shot deserting him was his ticket out of town.

[sterlingice]

BTW, reading and enjoying.

I've always wondered why more people don't do "retrospective" dynasties. It takes away some of the spontaneity but you can weave together the story threads so much easier as you know which moves are more and less important down the road.

Also, I was there the day that picture of Darrell Arthur was taken but was a bit before that on the parade route.

SI

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

BTW, reading and enjoying.

I've always wondered why more people don't do "retrospective" dynasties. It takes away some of the spontaneity but you can weave together the story threads so much easier as you know which moves are more and less important down the road.

Also, I was there the day that picture of Darrell Arthur was taken but was a bit before that on the parade route.

SI

Glad you're enjoying it.

I think retrospective dynasties lend themselves to certain types of games, like those Paradox develops (In fact, I think many of the AARs are written as an at least partial retrospective). Sports sims not quite so much because then you have to go back and review information, which takes a lot of effort and research in many cases. I'm also trying to keep from being *too* spoilerish here, so as to have at least some anticipation for the readers.

Very cool re: Arthur. He's a guy I liked a lot in this sim league.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, that was the 2008 KU championship parade in Lawrence. Thought he had an NBA body but jumped too early to get a read if he had complete NBA talent.

Also, I think it's important to avoid spoilers but you can use foreshadowing and instead make some judgements about what to emphasize and de-emphasize.

SI

[Izulde]

It's always a shame when guys jump too early, especially in basketball, IMO, given the greater number of players and smaller number of roster spots available.

And yep, trying to balance everything here re: foreshadowing and the like.

[Izulde]

Several Races Loom Large

Can NLL leading scorer Demar Derozan and the Orlando Magic stave off the Wizards and the Heat?

Day 90 is here and gone and the All-Star break is almost upon us. Some intriguing races have cropped up for division titles around the league, including two divisions with three-way races.

But first...

Divisions That Seem Fairly Secure
Philadelphia 76ers - Atlantic (7 game lead)
Despite all the Amare Stoudemire controversy, the 76ers are dominating a very weak Atlantic division. They've also won five straight games and just beat the Clippers in Emeka Okafor's second game with the team. If Philly can beat the Nets tonight, consider it the knockout punch and crown the 76ers' asses already.

Cleveland Cavaliers - Central (6.5 game lead)
This is how scary the Cavaliers are. They're in command of the NLL's best division, leaving the Pistons and the Bulls in their dust. 42-4 shows that last season was no fluke, and Cleveland reigns as the heavy favorites to win it all this season.

Now for the true races...

Southeast
Orlando Magic - 0.5 game lead
The Magic were one of the preseason favorites for the Southeast and they're hanging on to the division by a mere half-game. But keep in mind Orlando has been playing without DeAndre Jordan and when he comes back from injury, look for the Magic to reassert their earlier dominance and run away with the title, led by NLL scoring leader Demar Derozan and an obscene amount of swingman depth. Although projected to be Day 90 players, so far Orlando has been quiet.

Washington Wizards - 0.5 games back
Another preseason favorite, the Wizards have managed to avoid years of underachievement and are in the thick of the division race. Washington's 8 man rotation is one of the most balanced units in the league, with Shawn Marion the team's high scorer at 16.5 points a game, one of four Wizards to average 14+ points a contest. The big story here will be if they can avoid a late season swoon.

Miami Heat - 1 game back
The real surprise of the Southeast. Picked by most to finish 4th or 5th in the division, the Heat have surged behind the Jestorball system and play a very deep rotation - so deep that Michael Washington's 8.9 minutes a game is the lowest on the squad. Will new acquisitions Luke Nevill and Solomon Alabi be the pickups that send Miami to a stunning division title, or will they stay in the 7th seed spot?

Southwest
San Antonio Spurs - 2 games ahead
Widely criticized for the Ricky Rubio trade, all the Spurs have done is stay ahead in the Southwest, utilizing the same deep rotation as Miami and the same shared load on offense as Washington (Thaddeus Young is the team's lead scorer at 14.2 points a game). San Antonio doesn't play a flashy or sexy game; they just beat you.

Dallas Mavericks - 2 games back
John Wall will win Rookie of the Year and it won't even be close. He's singlehandedly carried the Mavericks to contention in the Southwest. Although Dallas is reportedly concerned about Daequan Cook's first two games as a starter, his former employers in Miami believe Cook will be rebound. And let's be honest, 7/16 is not terrible for a player still getting used to the bright light of starting again. Whether or not the Mavericks catch the Spurs all depends on how quickly Wall and Artsiom Parakhouski develop over the rest of the season.

Northwest
Portland Trailblazers - 0.5 games ahead
You know that handwringing everyone was doing over the Blazers' lack of offense? Say hello to six Portland players averaging 11 points or better in a display that tops even the Wizards and the Spurs. It's a far more balanced squad than Portland had last year or even earlier this season and they're re-established as favorites in the West.

Oklahoma City Thunder - 0.5 games back
The West's version of the Miami Heat in terms of surprise. Virtually no one expected the Thunder to be this good, but there they are with 7, almost 8 players averaging double-digit scoring figures in one of the NLL's most exciting young offenses. Getting Zach Randolph was huge, especially for his comparatively low cost, but will Z-Bo be enough of a veteran presence for the upstart Thunder, or will OKC simply fade away?

Pacific
Sacramento Kings - 1.5 games ahead
Dwayne Wade is back in MVP form and with him, the Kings are atop the NLL's second most competitive race after the Southeast. Ron Artest has given Sacramento an excellent glue player. But then again, the question has never been the regular season form. The question is, when can Yao Ming finally have a good postseason, if ever?

Los Angeles Clippers - 1.5 games back
One of the West's heaviest preseason favorites hasn't been as dominant as most people expected. Dwight Howard is back up over 50% happiness after being 0 early in the year, but the Clippers just haven't clicked as well as preseason pundits predicted. Six players of 11 points or more a game, led by Kevin Durant's 19.2 points a game is great; the problem is, the depth falls off dramatically after those six players and with just 12 players on the roster, the Red and White have no ability to compensate for injuries to any of their starters. It's a very precarious placement.

Phoenix Suns - 3 games back
This is what happens when you put a donkey in charge. Your team suddenly maximizes its potential and charges headlong into a division race. Already the multi-champion GM has put his stamp on the team - scouts rate Ramon Sessions as the Suns' worst defender... at 60, after the recent makeover.

Four division races. Ten teams. NLL excitement at its best.

Just Days After Trade, Nevill Goes Down

Wacky conspiracy theorists say Michael Washington put a hex on the Heat

Just a few days after Michael Washington was traded to the Phoenix Suns for a probable high second in the Denver Nuggets 2015 pick, disaster struck. Luke Nevill, starting at SF after head coach Eric Musselman had to miss the game due to illness, broke his hand just four minutes into the game against Chicago. He will be out a month and a half. Ironically enough, the Bulls are said to be the team in fiercest competition with Miami over Nevill's services the upcoming free agency period.

"Hard loss to take on both levels," GM Izulde Jestor said. "But we'll press on and rely on Solomon Alabi to show why we traded for him as our reserve PF and Tasmin Mitchell will take up the slack at backup SF."

There's no question, though, that losing their bona fide 6th man will greatly damage, if not outright kill, the Heat's faint hopes of a Southeast title and may in fact condemn them to the 7th or 8th seed in the playoffs. Signals of that were seen in the standings today, as Miami dropped 3 games behind the Magic, and a half-game behind the Washington Wizards.

Heat 3 Out, A Game Back Of Second

C Aleks Maric has been on form lately for Miami

Lost in all the hubbub and swooning over the Charlotte Bobcats, Orlando Magic, and Washington Wizards are the Miami Heat. The Heat struggled recently, fighting through a stretch where they lost 8 out of 12 games before surging back to win the last four games. Currently, they're in third place in the Southeast, three games behind Orlando, just a game behind Washington, and five games in front of Charlotte.

"I told the guys to just keep calm and carry on," head coach Eric Musselman said. "In an 82 game season, you're going to have some bad stretches. Heck, look at Orlando. They've lost four straight games, but nobody's saying their season's gone or anything. It's just their time to go through a rough patch."

C Aleks Maric has been instrumental in Miami's snapping out of their funk. In the Heat's last three games, he's scored 22 points against the Bucks, 30 points and 21 rebounds on the road in New York, and 22 points versus the Lakers.

The most recent win against the Lakers was Miami's 40th victory of the season, and the odds are good for the Heat to break last year's 43-38 record, where they lost a coinflip to the Bobcats for the East's final playoff seed.

Overall, the Heat are #7 in points scored at 100.7 a game and #9 points allowed at 94.9 a contest. They also rank #9 in steals and team shooting %, and #1 in Jestorball's most critical area, fewest turnovers, at 11.5 a game, 0.4 ahead of the second place Cavaliers.

They also rank #1 in fewest steals surrendered per game at 5.5, 0.2 ahead of Cleveland and #8 in turnovers forced at 17.5.

Yet, despite these accomplishments, Miami continues to be lightly regarded, at least according to GM Jestor.

"We're the one team everybody wants to play in the first round," Jestor said. "Everybody's talking about how scary Washington and Charlotte are, and they're all like, I hope we get the Heat! They're a really easy out."

Miami's critics point to a 23rd worst 47.9% opponent field goal shooting and a 25th worst 38 team rebounds a game to suggest that no matter who they draw in the first round, it'll be a sweep for their opponents. They also argue that despite some productive showings from the Heat's bench, it's all smoke and mirrors.

"It's a bit annoying," said Jestor. "But that's okay. I'm sure Coach Musselman, CP3, Maric, and the rest of the team will use the disrespect as bulletin board material."

The Heat are also without deadline pick up Luke Nevill, estimated out another two and a half weeks with a broken hand.

***

Context Notes
What an exciting race the division was that year. Losing 8 of 12 in the home stretch of the year didn't make me happy, though. I'd also forgotten that Nevill broke his hand almost immediately after coming here.

Dat Maric, though. Boy starting to show he could play.

[Izulde]

Things Still Murky
The Southeast is still a dogfight, with none of the teams able to afford to rest heading into the final weeks of the season.

Orlando Magic
The Magic's 7 game skid before finally beating the Suns was one of the most shocking developments of the year. It's allowed Washington and Miami to mathematically re-enter the division race, but that's not Orlando's biggest issue. The largest concern is that Philadelphia is now just a half-game out of the #3 seed. Currently, the team's fully healthy and few doubt Orlando will lock up the Southeast crown, as their challengers are too inconsistent to have much hope.

Home Games (8): Hawks, Raptors, Wizards, Bulls, Pistons, Cavaliers, Pacers, Heat
Away Games (5): Nets, Mavericks, Pistons, Bulls, Bucks

The majority of Orlando's remaining games are at home, and even their road schedule, outside of the Bulls and Pistons, has non-elite teams. It's a favorable schedule, particularly when you consider the Magic are one of the few winning teams on the road at 19-17.

Washington Wizards
Four of the last five games have been on the road, and all four of them have been losses. That streak has put Washington in danger of losing the 6th seed to Miami, whom they're now tied with. Deron Williams has a concussion, but he's expected to be fine in a couple days, so it's not an injury worth worrying about.

Home Games (8): Hawks, Pacers, Celtics, 76ers, Bucks, Bulls, Cavaliers, Bobcats
Away Games (7): Thunder, Trailblazers, Magic, Pistons, Pacers, Nets, Knicks

A mixture of projected gimmes and some tough contests. The Nets and Knicks road games are the final two of the season, so even given Washington's 13-21 away record, those are soft enough games that they should be victories. The Wizards will likely need to do well at home as they have throughout the year, however, if they want to stay up.

Miami Heat
Look up streaky and inconsistent, and you'll find the Miami Heat. For all the press the Wizards have gone for poor road form, the Heat are 14-21 outside of South Beach themselves. Biggest X-factor: What Miami does with Luke Nevill when he comes back from injury. That decision could determine the team's fortunes for the rest of the year.

Home (5): Raptors, Bulls, Pistons, Pacers, Bobcats
Away (6): Pacers, Hornets, Grizzlies, 76ers, Celtics, Magic

On the surface of it, things don't look good for the Heat, with more away games than home games remaining. But many of the away opposition are teams that Miami has a good chance of beating. By and large, though, where Miami ends up will depend on how the Magic, Wizards, and Bobcats do with their games in hand.

Charlotte Bobcats
One of the hottest teams in the league is now 5.5 games out from the division lead, 3.5 out of the Miami/Washington standoff. Riding a four game winning streak, including critical consecutive wins over Orlando and Miami. The 8th seed is more or less guaranteed because of their great form, with the Nets and Bucks left in the dust. Now the conversation is on how far they can move up. Like every team but the Heat, they're fully healthy.

Home: 7: Nets, Bulls, Raptors, Clippers, Hawks, Knicks, Pistons
Away: 7: Bulls, 76ers, Bucks, Grizzlies, Hawks, Wizards, Heat

Where the Bobcats end up could all come down to the second and third last games of the season, where they play Washington and Miami on the road. Charlotte's final position is the toughest to call. They're also 14-20 on the road, in line with the two teams directly in front of them.

In fact, the only thing that seems certain is that the Orlando Magic will win the Southeast. Everything else is up in the air.

No Coinflip This Season As Miami Mauls Bulls

Miami Heat fans celebrate the team's first playoff berth since 2009

For the moment, no one in South Beach paid attention to the Southeast division standings. Instead, Miami was awash in celebration after the Heat dismantled the Chicago Bulls 107-81 for their 46th win of the year and a guaranteed postseason ticket. Miami held the offensive powerhouse Bulls to just 39.5% shooting and 5 of 27 (18.5%) from 3 point range.

"Not bad, not bad at all", Miami Heat head coach Eric Musselman grinned.

As expected, Chris Paul led the attack with 32 points. Aleks Maric was the #2 man, pulling down 14 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists. Marcus Banks sparked the bench with 12 points and 2 steals on 5 for 6 shooting.

In two and a little more seasons, GM Jestor has completely remade the Heat, transforming them from an underachieving squad to one challenging for the Southeast title.

A look back:

Miami Heat send
SF Stanley Robinson - $2,009,020
SF Rudy Gay - $11,829,035
PG Ramon Sessions - $1,529,244
PF Cheikh Samb - $906,300

Miami Heat receive
PG Chris Paul - $14,000,000
SG Daequan Cook - $3,240,000

Total Salary Sent - $16,273,599
Total Salary Received - $17,240,000
Differential - 1.06

Minnesota Timberwolves send
PG Chris Paul - $14,000,000
SG Daequan Cook - $3,240,000
PF Jeff Adrien - $983,500

Minnesota Timberwolves receive
SF Stanley Robinson - $2,009,020
SF Rudy Gay - $11,829,035
PG Ramon Sessions - $1,529,244
#12 pick in upcoming draft
Minnesota Timberwolves 2014 1st
Dallas Mavericks 2013 2nd

Total Salary Sent - $18,223,500
Total Salary Received - $15,367,299
Differential: N/A because Minnesota sends more than receives

Orlando Magic send
#12 pick in upcoming draft
Minnesota Timberwolves 2014 1st
Dallas Mavericks 2013 2nd

Orlando Magic receive
PF Cheikh Samb - $906,300
PF Jeff Adrien - $983,500

Total Salary Sent - $0
Total Salary Received - $1,889,800
Differential: N/A because Orlando has the cap space available

At the time, Stanley Robinson was a very highly regarded young player by a lot of teams, as was Cheikh Samb. It also marked the second time that Rudy Gay was traded by Jestor.

How it worked for the Heat
No one needs a reminder of how well Chris Paul worked out for the Heat. Daequan Cook was the starting SG last year and received a Most Improved Player vote before being traded to the Dallas Mavericks for Solomon Alabi at the deadline this season.

How it worked for the Timberwolves
Minnesota is bad this season, currently 29-46, second to last in the Northwest, so getting their own first pick in the upcoming draft was excellent. That #12 pick turned into a package deal with Emeka Okafor for Shaun Livingston, Chris Taft, and the Celtics' 2012 2nd round pick. #12 then got flipped again, sent to Dallas as part of the package for Mike Bibby. The Mavericks then used the #12 pick to take Nick Calathes, who has major strides in his second season.

Rudy Gay didn't last long in a Timberwolves uniform before getting to the Spurs for Paul Pierce, and Stanley Robinson soon found his way to Toronto along with, ironically enough, Livingston and Taft for Kevin Garnett and the Phoenix Suns 2014 1st (Top 5 protected), the latter of which made its way back to the Suns at some point for a while.

Ramon Sessions stayed a season and a half and was inconsistent in his shot before being dealt to the Suns this year as part of the package for Aubrey Coleman and Darrell Arthur.

How it worked for the Magic
Samb played fairly well in the minutes he got the first season, but this year has played in 12 garbage time games and has to go down as a major disappointment. But as disappointing as Samb was, Adrien was a revelation, showing off brilliant shooting and tough-nosed defense, despite being undersized. He was flipped at the deadline to the Suns for Phoenix's 2014 1st round pick.

Winner: Miami Heat
While the Timberwolves eventually made a good recovery with the packaging of various assets, they still gave up the best player in the deal by far and sorely miss CP3. Orlando made out well enough, as the 2012 draft class was a weak one, making the 12th pick not worth much, and they have another pick to add to their arsenal. But the clear victors were the Heat, who had their franchise player and a team identity in Paul.

A smaller, disastrous for the Heat 3 way deal followed. In the exchange with the Cavaliers and the Raptors, Miami's part was to send out Richard Jefferson for Omer Asik. Jefferson blossomed with the Cavaliers and Asik bombed with the Heat.

And then came this low point:

Miami Heat receive
Monty Myles - $10,350,000 (via sign and trade)
Detroit Pistons 2013 1st

Miami Heat send
L.R. Mbah a Moute - $2,000,000
Miami 2014 1st - Top 5 Protected

Total Salary Sent - $2,000,000
Total Salary Received - $10,350,000
Financials: Passes because Miami has enough cap space after renouncements and Richard Jefferson deal

Detroit Pistons receive
L.R. Mbah a Moute - $2,000,000
Miami 2014 1st - Top 5 Protected

Detroit Pistons send
Monty Myles - $10,350,000 (via sign and trade)
Detroit Pistons 2013 1st

The infamous Monty Myles sign and trade in which Jestor proudly declared that the young Piston had "All-Star, if not franchise potential". Worse yet, it was a virtual max-level deal for Myles and the league screamed that the Heat had just given up yet another lottery pick to the Pistons.

Of course, with the Heat now in the playoffs in the year that first is coming up, such concerns are alleviated.

During the 2012 regular season, Jon Brockman came over from Charlotte in the Bobcats' searching for cap space, a cap space that would come to have a significant impact on this year's Southeast and #3 seed race.

Marcus Banks also arrived with expiring contract Ricky Davis from the Clippers for Brian Scalabrine as the Red and White sought to sort out chemistry issues, a familiar theme of the Lukc reign. Davis flamed out, but Banks has been a valuable rotation of the Heat's rotation and played a role in Miami's war with Washington for Shawn Marion last summer.

And at the deadline came another major blockbuster:

Miami Heat send
Monty Myles - $10,350,000
Sergio Llull - $1,199,800
Derrick Byars - $398,762
Omer Asik - $667,417
San Antonio Spurs 2014 1st

Miami Heat receive
Aleks Maric - $1,429,200
Devon Hardin - $5,200,000
Mike Miller - $5,715,360

Total Salary Sent - $12,615,979
Total Salary Received - $12,344,560

Houston Rockets send
Aleks Maric - $1,429,200
Devon Hardin - $5,200,000
Mike Miller - $5,715,360

Houston Rockets receive
Monty Myles - $10,350,000
Sergio Llull - $1,199,800
Derrick Byars - $398,762
Omer Asik - $667,417
San Antonio Spurs 2014 1st

In one fell swoop, the Miami Heat shipped off all their mistakes of the 2012 offseason along with the Spurs' 2014 1st, betting on San Antonio's ability to be a playoff team in 2013, which they are. Not only did they get rid of all their errors, but Aleks Maric has gone on to become the #2 star in the Heat's 3 star system.

Only Myles and Llull remain with the Rockets, with Monty turning into a serviceable, grossly overpaid reserve and Llull getting worse every year.

What's interesting to note about Llull is that he was originally selected by the Heat for the Magic, a broken verbal on the part of Miami that disturbed the Heat all season long, who wanted Austin Daye or Wayne Ellington.

The Chris Paul/Daequan Cook/Mike Miller/Aleks Maric/Pau Gasol lineup after all these trades just failed to deliver Miami the playoff berth, lost in the infamous Coinflip.

But that loss proved a blessing in disguise, as it allowed the Heat to steal Willie "Wonder" Warren, who won the starting SG from Cook in preseason and, after a slow start, has shown improvement as the season has gone on. Currently, he's averaging 12.6 points and a steal per game, shooting 44.2%, 30.1% from 3 point range and a 81.8% drive stop rate. Perhaps most surprising is his +7.1 On-Court, second on the team behind only Paul.

Although late first round pick Michael Washington washed out and was shipped to the Suns for Denver's 2015 2nd round pick, second round selection Tasmin Mitchell, taken 55th overall, has been astonishingly effective as a reserve, stopping 93.9% of all drives and shooting 45%, 40% from long range and playing exceptionally well for a four game stretch as a starter.

Then came another controversial trade for the Heat, in which Miami sent Pau Gasol to the Los Angeles Clippers for Jamario Moon and the Clippers' 2014 1st (Top 8 protected). Many felt the Clippers made out extremely well and that the Heat lost the trade. And indeed, Gasol is shooting a career-high 56.8% for 14.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks a game.

But Moon has stopped every single drive that's come his way this season and is one of Miami's best defenders, allowing 0.8 points per shot faced in addition to his 100% drive stop rate. 6.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, and 1.2 steals may not be sexy stats, but he defers to the Heat's other scorers and shuts down the opposition. His 42.7% shooting rate is also considered acceptable, giving his deference and defensive greatness.

Just what the Clippers' pick will turn into remains to be seen, especially since Miami missed the first scouting period under the mistaken impression that those points would carry over to later periods, but Warren was a late investigation by the Heat last year, too.

The other major reason for the deal was to free up the cap space to pursue Shawn Marion in free agency. The UNLV Three concept failed to win Marion over, who returned to the Wizards and left Miami with Jon Brockman as the best PF on the roster.

But the Heat didn't panic and cooly shipped expiring contracts Steve Francis and Devon Hardin along with the Heat's 2016 2nd to the Suns for Carlos Boozer and the Phoenix Suns unprotected 2016 1st. The salary cap relief will no doubt prove useful to Phoenix, and Boozer's contract may mean Miami needs to do some fancy footwork to retain everyone they want to, but Boozer's immediate impact can not be denied.

He filled Miami's crying need for a rebounding presence and third offensive option in the three star system, currently averaging 13.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 1.1 steals on 47.1% shooting.

At the time of the trade, the Chicago Bulls declared they considered the Heat the favorites to win the Southeast, despite continued skepticism around the rest of the league, who ranked the Heat largely 4th and 5th in the division in preseason predictions.

The Heat started off 0-4, but then caught fire and continued to go on streaks. Always hunting for improvement, Jestor shipped the Heat's 2015 2nd round pick to the Nets for Jarrett Jack, whose 52.1% shooting, 44.8% from long range, 2.6 A/TO ratio, and 79.7% stop drive rate have proved a much better all-around reserve guard for the Jestorball system than Anthony Morrow.

How well theLuke Nevill/Jon Brockman and pieces on each other side, including the Knicks 2nd to the Pacers for the Hawks 2nd in the upcoming draft, will work out for Indiana and Miami is still up in the air, although Nevill's broken hand didn't help matters. Reports say Nevill will be worked back into the rotation slowly with his exact minutes for the remainder of the season uncertain.

The Daequan Cook/Solomon Alabi deal also needs more time to decide one way or the other, although Cook has flourished after an adjustment period, finding a home as the Mavericks' 6th man. Alabi, for his part, has quietly impressed with a 91.7% drive stop rate and consistently excellent shooting accuracy off the bench. In fact, he's improved on the 53.4% shooting he did in Dallas.

Miami is also, after the win over the Bulls, tied with the Magic for the Southeast division lead, with the Wizards a half-game behind, the Bobcats 4.5 back.

Neither Coach Musselman or Jestor would comment on the ascension, behind a simple, "The season isn't over yet."

And indeed, the season might well come down to April 18th, when the Heat travel to Orlando for the last installment of this year's Florida Wars.

***

Context Notes

Once you really know your way around an MP league, making the playoffs isn't a big deal. But this one was the first time I can remember getting to the postseason in a MP DDS league, and the fact that it was in the NLL, which is the most competitive, difficult one I've ever been in, made it all the sweeter.

The real icing? That we got it after losing the tiebreaker to the Bobcats last season. And there was still the Southeast crown to play for, what with our being tied with Orlando after clinching the playoff berth.

[sterlingice]

Am I missing something or did you sell really low on Cook?

BTW, just started reading another of your dynasties that I had in my backlog from the Golden Scribes revival a couple of years ago (The Beautiful Girl and the History Class). You're always good for a page turner- my lunch ran a bit long today before I had to stop maybe a third into the story. I had to jump away from the Paradox boards version, tho: as they're better at guessing what was going on and I'd rather read the plot twists as they occur and the author intended.

SI

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Am I missing something or did you sell really low on Cook?

BTW, just started reading another of your dynasties that I had in my backlog from the Golden Scribes revival a couple of years ago (The Beautiful Girl and the History Class). You're always good for a page turner- my lunch ran a bit long today before I had to stop maybe a third into the story. I had to jump away from the Paradox boards version, tho: as they're better at guessing what was going on and I'd rather read the plot twists as they occur and the author intended.

SI

Perhaps I sold low on Cook, but I really liked Alabi (I'm a sucker for high % shooting 7'+ big men). So I think it was a trade that worked out for both of us in the short-term, especially since it took a while for Cook to get back to his old shooting form with Dallas, and even then, it was only when he got moved to the bench.

I'm glad to hear you're enjoying TBG&THC. It's actually my favorite out of all the dynasties I've ever done, although it unintentionally ended up causing me one major problem with my MFA thesis that took me about two and a half years to break through (The other major problem still exists and hence why I'm going to shelve it for a while and focus on fine-tuning the most successful short stories I have so I can send those out).

[Izulde]

Major Decisions Loom For Heat This Offseason

Will Miami really turn adoring eyes on PF/C Luke Nevill?

As the Miami Heat pursue their 50th win of the year and the 6th seed in the playoffs in their final two games, the front office is already busy assessing the upcoming offseason and draft, projecting the team's future into the next few seasons.

One of the biggest issues is where the league will stand following rule changes that take effect next year that will significantly impact every team in the league. With that in mind, here's a look at where each impending free agent is rumored to stand with the Heat at the moment.

G Jarrett Jack - 31 next season
Shot 51.3% and 46.9% from the 3 point line after coming over from the New Jersey Nets. There's no doubt Miami played much better with him in the rotation than without. Stopped 81.5% of drives and posted an acceptable 2.4 A/TO ratio while mostly backing up Willie "Wonder" Warren with occasional stints spelling Chris Paul. Could be this season's Marcus Banks, a player Jestor specifically targeted as a great fit for the Heat's system, proves his ability, and then signs a contract extension. The draft might affect Jack's status, however.

SG Anthony Morrow - 25 next season
Morrow's career has been one of ups and downs since Jestor's arrival. He played well for a stretch and then lost out to Jack after Eric Musselman grew frustrated with his inconsistency. His shooting percentage nose-dived this season, especially from long range, and without his offensive burst, he's anathema to Jestorball. When the season started, he was a good bet to re-signed as the bench sparkplug, but his decline means it's almost certain he won't be back in South Beach next year.

SF Marcus Vinicius - 31 next season
Played all of 4 minutes since coming over from the Pacers. Miami will cheerfully take his $5.7 million expiring contract, renounce it, and wave goodbye.

PF/C Henk Norel - 24 next season
Averaged 5.6 points, 4 rebounds and just 0.8 turnovers, shooting 53.7% in 17.1 minutes a game. Also stopped over 90% of drives that came his way. Jestor is well known for his love of under the radar players he discovers who produce and show his brilliance, so it's a virtual lock that the Heat will re-sign Norel and likely to a multi-year deal. Without a doubt, one of the bigger steals of the free agency period last season.

PF/C Luke Nevill - 24 next season
The wildcard. His shooting has gone down since coming to Miami and although he's getting the minutes to show he's worthy of a contract, his 4 for 13 outing against the Celtics played a big role in Miami's 2 point loss. The latest reports from South Florida suggest the front office might not see him as Carlos Boozer's future heir, and if that's the case, the Heat aren't likely to spend big money in the free agency to retain him, especially with competition for his signature expected to be fierce.

As Jackson Ayorinde put it, "His passing and handling suggest he's the perfect fit for Jestorball, but one of the least talked about aspects of the system is the premium it places on big men to be consistently accurate shooters. Those who aren't soon find their way out, like Jon Brockman, who, by the way, also had great passing and handling for a big man, in addition to great rebounding and defense.

Nevill still has a chance to prove himself in these last two games and in the postseason, but right now I'd say it's far from a sure thing the Heat will try and re-sign him. They might consider their money better spent elsewhere."

Another factor that could play into the Nevill question is just how much Miami thinks Carlos Boozer will decline next season. While they love what Solomon Alabi has done so far, do the Heat consider him a capable starter if Boozer drops sharply?

Draft
It's almost certain the Heat will be drafting a SG or SF in the first round, given that's the strength of the draft, Jestorball's hatred of tweener big men, and the incredibly shallow point guard crop. Second round is likely to be best player available.

Ayorinde considers a combo guard the most likely possibility. "They'll want the most flexibility concerning Jack, and if the combo's passing/handling skills are good enough, he could perhaps become the heir apparent to Marcus Banks as the backup PG. If the best player on their board is a SF when their pick comes up, they'll probably go that route, but overall Miami looks less inclined to go SF because of how exceptionally Tasmin Mitchell has done (46.2%, 40% from 3 point, 94.8% drive stop rate, 2nd on the team to Jamario Moon).

Next season
Priority #1 will be signing Chris Paul to an extension. Look for Miami to launch the sort of elaborate, aggressive media campaign they're known for. Priority #1A will be inking Aleks Maric to an extension, although teams hoping to get Maric should be aware that he is a RFA, and as a result, Miami controls his future. The Heat have also hung up on every team who has inquired about Maric.

Future projection
Miami is in a tough spot. The Southeast is the deepest division top to bottom and the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Bobcats are replete in high-level assets to put themselves at the top for a long time, on the level of Cleveland and Detroit. The Heat's best chance for continued dominance, other than ensuring CP3, Maric, and Warren stay in Miami uniforms is for the Suns' 2016 1st to pan out well. But given donkey's arrival in the desert, the initial hopes for that scenario have been crushed, so the Heat will need to challenge for a championship within the next few seasons.

Heat Win Final Two Games, Finish 51-31 In Regular Season

Chris Paul and the Miami Heat will be bowling for a strike of the Philadelphia 76ers

Miami Heat GM Jestor kept all the preseason press clippings taped to the wall in his office. Last, last, last, last, last. Almost all consigned his Heat to last place in the Southeast. To be fair, most of the predictions were released prior to the Carlos Boozer trade, but even then, the skeptics considered Miami a borderline playoff team at best.

51 wins later, they're standing as the 6th seed and have drawn an extremely favorable matchup in the Philadelphia 76ers, who they beat 3-1 in the regular season series.

"Regular season doesn't mean much," Head head coach Eric Musselman countered. "The 76ers are a very talented team and the biggest margin of victory any one of us had was 9 points."

Philadelphia and Miami both come into the postseason riding winning streaks. The 76ers won their last four straight games, ironically losing only to the Heat and the Wizards in a stunning 10-2 run to vault over Washington for the 3 seed. The Heat, meanwhile, went 9-2 to challenge for the Southeast title before settling for the 6 seed and won their last three straight games.

The Breakdown:

Miami Heat
Regular Season: 51-31
Finish: 2nd - Southeast
Home: 32-9
Road: 19-22
Points Scored: 101.2 (6th)
Points Allowed: 94 (7th)
Top 8 Categories
Turnovers Allowed: 11.7 (1st)
Steals Allowed: 5.7 (1st)
Turnovers Forced: 17.6 (6th)
Steals: 9.2 (T-8th)
Bottom 8 Categories
Rebounds: 38.2 (22nd)
Blocks: 5.7 (22nd)
3 Point %: 34/5 (22nd)
FT %: 75.3 (23rd)
Blocks Allowed: 7.7 (T-27th)
Opp FG %: 47.5 (22nd)
Opp 3 pt %: 39.7 (T-30th)

Philadelphia 76ers
Regular Season: 52-30
Finish: 1st - Atlantic
Home: 31-10
Road: 21-20
Points Scored: 96.6 (18th)
Points Allowed: 92.4 (4th)
Top 8 Categories
Steals: 10.3 (2nd)
Rebounds Allowed: 37.7 (2nd)
Turnovers Forced: 18.1 (T-3rd)
Assists Allowed: 23.7 (7th)
FG %: 48.5 (8th - Note: Miami is 9th at 48.3)
Bottom 8 Categories
Assists: 24.1 (T-22nd)
Rebounds: 38 (24th)
3 Pt %: 33.3 (29th)
Turnovers: 15.8 (22nd)
Steals Allowed: 7.2 (T-22nd)

Analysis
Neither team can shoot the 3 pointer consistently or gather a ton of total team rebounds. No surprise to see Miami leading the league in fewest turnovers and steals allowed - Jestorball is founded on that concept and it allows the Heat to get away with outrageous opponent shooting percentages by limiting possessions. The opportunistic Heat defense also plays a role in the Top 10 scoring defense despite such high percentages.

The 76ers are one of the best defensive teams in the league which is how they managed to shock everyone in winning the Atlantic with ease. They deny points, assists, and boards, and swarm on defense like few others in the NLL. Philadelphia fans have to be worried about the turnover and steal allowed rate. That carelessness plays right into the Heat's system by the numbers and explains how Miami managed to go 3-1 during the regular season.

Starting Lineup Comparison

Point Guard
Chris Paul vs. Patrick Mills
CP3's counting stats are down slightly, as he averaged 20.9 points, 7.2 assists and 2.2 steals during the regular season, but he shot 49.4% from the field, a career best, and 40% from 3 point range. 4.5 A/TO ratio, 93% drive stop rate (29 drives a game) and an obscene 1.9% TO/touch rate. Struggled his first few playoff series, but shot 50.3% the last time he was here in 2011 with the Timberwolves.

Mills matches Paul in the scoring department - 20.6 points on 49.8% shooting and also had 2 steals a game, but just 6.2 assists and a shockingly bad 1.7 A/TO ratio, a number that would get him executed gangland style in Miami. 87.2% drive stop rate on 27.8 possessions and 4% TO/touch rate. Good player, but the last time he was in the playoffs, he was a reserve, and now he draws one of the top players in the NLL.

Advantage: Miami

Shooting Guard
Willie Warren vs. Kevin Martin
Wonder Warren's 13.3 points and 1.1 steals may be shrug-worthy, along with the rookie's 45.8% shooting, 32.8% from 3 point range, but he improved as the season went along. 82.2% drive stop rate on 16.8 per game, 2.6 A/TO ratio.

Ignore Martin's 8.8 points and 1.6 steals - he didn't become a full-time starter until January. Breathtaking defender, whose 6'7 body will cause matchup problems for rookie Warren. 92.1% drive stop rate on 12.8 a game. We'll just limit ourselves to saying there's only 76er with an A/TO ratio higher than 1.7 and that's reserve Devin Harris at 2.4. Martin has extensive playoff experience and although the record has been decidedly mixed, it still gives him an edge against his counterpart.

Advantage: 76ers

Small Forward
Jamario Moon vs. Michael Beasley
6.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 1.2 steals on a career high 44% shooting tell the tale of Moon. He's there to shut down the opposition and he's stopped all 6.5 drives a game he's faced and allows 0.8 points/shot faced. He's Miami's Andrei Kirilenko, a defensive specialist who performed well with the Clippers and Nuggets in the playoffs the last two years.

Moon's task is to contain Beasley's 16.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 1.3 steals a game (54.2% shooting). Beasley himself has stopped all drives and is a superior all-around player who was great last time Philly went to the playoffs two years ago, but was poor with the Spurs.

Advantage: 76ers

Power Forward
Carlos Boozer vs. Emeka Okafor
13.1 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.1 steals a game on 47.6% shooting. A point allowed per shot faced. Boozer is the third star in Miami's three star system and their one fantastic rebounder. His shooting percentage was a bit down this year, but the coaching staff are working with him on attacking the basket more. Up and down playoff record, but extensive postseason experience that the Heat will count on.

9.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 1.1 steals a game, shooting well over 50% after going to the 76ers. Okafor's also allowed 0.9 points/shot faced and is essence Philadelphia's Moon with Boozer's rebounding. Experienced playoff veteran and a phenomenal defender who will be tasked with limiting Boozer like Moon with Boozer.

Advantage: Draw

Center
Aleks Maric vs. Roy Hibbert
Maric staked his claim as one of the league's best young big men this year, shooting 56.5% for 17.2 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks as Miami's #2 option. The scary part? He did all this in just 29 minutes a game. He also shot 50% from 3 point range (7/14) and has allowed 0.9 points/faced. If his 2011 playoffs with Houston is indication he could be in for a monster series.

Hibbert has his critics, but he averaged 10 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.4 blocks on 53.7% shooting, split between a reserve in Denver and a starter in Philadelphia. Worrying sign - he's never shot better than 38.1% in the postseason. Shades of Yao Ming there.

Advantage: Miami

Bench
The Heat run a 10 man rotation despite being criticized for their bench. Many of their key reserves' stats are marred by starting time for other teams, so we'll just point to Jarret Jack's 6.2 points on 51.3% shooting, Henk Norel's 53.7% shooting for 5.6 points and 4 rebounds, and Tasmin Mitchell's 94.2% drive stop rate as key stats. Of course, it's uncertain if Norel will displace Luke Nevill at any point in the series.

Philadelphia also has a lot of variety in their looks and players, and it's worth noting that every player on the active depth chart is averaging 5.8 points or more. On the other hand, no one matches Norel's 4 boards a game, or Marcus Banks's 2.7 A/TO ratio. Still there's no question the 76ers have more talent on their bench.

Advantage: 76ers

Overall Outlook
This series is a tough one to call. On paper, the 76ers are deeper and more talented, and the Jestorball system has yet to be tested in the postseason, even if many of its individual players have experience. But that Maric/Hibbert matchup looks scary for Philadelphia and could be the tipping point in the series.

We'll let you call this one, sports fans.

***

Context Notes
I had a rule back then that I would never try to predict who would win in one of my series in an MP league. Said rule is long since broken, but I have to confess, I salivated over this matchup. The 76ers were very unlucky to get us, because their weakness played right into our strength in my opinion and I secretly thought we would get a sweep.

There'd be time enough to mull over the offseason. For now, I wanted to enjoy our finally making the NLL playoffs.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Izulde

Perhaps I sold low on Cook, but I really liked Alabi (I'm a sucker for high % shooting 7'+ big men). So I think it was a trade that worked out for both of us in the short-term, especially since it took a while for Cook to get back to his old shooting form with Dallas, and even then, it was only when he got moved to the bench.

I'm glad to hear you're enjoying TBG&THC. It's actually my favorite out of all the dynasties I've ever done, although it unintentionally ended up causing me one major problem with my MFA thesis that took me about two and a half years to break through (The other major problem still exists and hence why I'm going to shelve it for a while and focus on fine-tuning the most successful short stories I have so I can send those out).

You're going to be receiving a pretty long PM whenever I finish it. It got me thinking quite a bit about the creative writing process and I'd love to pick your brain. A significant part of that story just pops off the page.

SI

[Izulde]

Jarrett Jack, Aleks Maric Come Up Big

Miami Heat bench man G Jarrett Jack points gleefully to his Game 1 statline

The Miami Heat drew first blood in the first round series against the Philadelphia 76ers, showing their 3-1 regular season record was no fluke. The Heat came out 92-82 winners, a margin that was even larger before a frenzied fourth quarter rally effort by Philadelphia.

Although Aleks Maric led the Heat with 20 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals, and a block on 8 for 15 shooting, the player everyone was talking about was Jarrett Jack, who again showed GM Jestor's wisdom in acquiring him. Jack hit 5 of 8 attempts for 10 points, and, more importantly, racked up a team-high 4 steals with 0 turnovers. All told, the Miami Heat had 17 steals and just 9 turnovers, compared to the 76ers' 30 turnovers.

"We played our game the way we wanted to," head coach Eric Musselman said. "You saw some vintage Jestorball on display tonight."

Maric was the only Heat player to break 20, as Miami relied on its depth, with 10 players getting 15+ minutes.

Michael Beasley was awarded Player of the Game in the losing effort for his 22 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks, but he also played a game high 41 minutes.

Patrick Mills deserves much of the blame for the 76ers' defeat. Although he had a triple double, it was the wrong kind - 18 points, 10 assists, and 12 turnovers, 3 more turnovers by himself than the Heat had as a team.

Philadelphia's depth also took a hit, as Danny Granger strained his hamstring and will be questionable for the rest of the series.

Wonderpaul Backcourt Roars To Life

Rookie SG Willie Warren took inspiration from John Wall's Game 1 brilliance

Game 2 of the 76ers/Heat series showed why Miami GM Jestor and head coach Eric Musselman decided to go with the Wonderpaul backcourt in Willie "Wonder" Warren's rookie season and why Jestor deemed Daequan Cook expendable in the end in the Heat's 106-79 Game 2 victory, a 27 point margin that easily dwarfs the margin of victory at any prior point in the season series.

Warren, after a poor Game 1 outing against Kevin Martin, took advantage of Martin's limited minutes to shoot 9 for 13 for 20 points, 4 assists, a steal, and no turnovers. Chris Paul, the other half of the Wonderpaul equation, won Player of the Game with a magnificent 22 points, 10 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals and just one turnover outing after having a quiet Game 1 due to foul trouble.

Aleks Maric put up his second strong showing, doubling for 14 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks and the other Game 1 hero, Jarrett Jack, was even better in Game 2, scoring 13 points with 4 assists, 3 steals and a turnover.

Once again, turnovers told a large part of the tale, with the Heat reprising their 9 from the first game and forcing 21 in this contest. Patrick Mills continued to be emblematic of the 76ers' struggles, with 7 turnovers to 6 assists, although he did shoot much better in hitting 7 of his 18 attempts for 23 points. Roy Hibbert also managed a double double of 10 points, 13 rebounds and 3 blocks, and benchman Jeremy Lin scored 11 points.

But Jamario Moon and Tasmin Mitchell conspired to suffocate Michael Beasley, holding the Game 1 MVP to just 8 points on 3 for 7 shooting. The notoriously harsh Philadelphia fans booed the 76ers in the closing minutes of the game, and with the 76ers dropping both games at home, the conversation appears to have gone from whether Philadelphia can win this series, to if they can avoid the sweep.

Musselman was having none of the sweep talk, however. "The 76ers are still a really great team. We'll do our best to close this thing out in Miami, but when you have a really good team playing you, they tend to really come out when their backs are against the wall. This series isn't over yet, not by a long shot."

Miami Rallies From First Half Deficit For 3-0 Lead

C Aleks Maric fought through a defense designed to stop him

The Philadelphia 76ers made wholesale changes as they headed to Miami, putting defensive stopper Emeka Okafor on the Heat's Aleks Maric and sliding Michael Beasley down to power forward, where he drew a less difficult defender in Carlos Boozer.

What followed was a brutal, slow defensive game that saw the Heat come out on top, 91-78, to seize a commanding 3-0 series lead.

Although Chris Paul was named Game MVP for his 24 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, and 3 steals, including 8 of 9 shooting from the free throw line, he didn't feel he deserved it after turning the ball over 7 times and hitting just 7 of 18 attempts.

"Honestly, I didn't have a very good game tonight," the Heat's franchise star admitted. "Coach Musselman is going to have me running a lot of laps after Game 4, especially turning the ball over so much. All credit to Philly, man, they came in and just grinded, tried to slow things down and be all up in our faces."

Indeed, in a series that's been marked by Miami's dominance in possession, the Heat gave up an uncharacteristic 18 turnovers, just one less than the 76ers, who had 19.

Aleks Maric fought through the Emeka Okafor wall to just miss the double-double, hitting 6 of 11 for 13 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks as one of the best shooting Heat of the day.

Patrick Mills had his most accurate shooting game of the series, hitting 8 of 20 shots for a team-high 17 points. He also finally had a game with more assists than turnovers at 7 dishes to 6 turnovers.

But Michael Beasley again struggled to find open looks, finishing with just 11 points and 8 rebounds on 4 of 7 shooting, and Charlie Villanueva, getting his first starting opportunity this postseason, chucked 4 of 13 shots against Jamario Moon.

Heat To Face Pistons In Round 2

Fittingly, it was PG Marcus Banks as one of the Game 4 standouts

Jestorball just won a sweep.

In another slow-paced, grimly run game, the Miami Heat topped the Philadelphia 76ers 90-75 to sweep the series, keeping them on pace with the Detroit Pistons, their second round opponent, who surprised in sweeping the Orlando Magic.

Aleks Maric won Game and Series MVP after 6 of 12 shots for 20 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks, and Willie "Wonder" Warren made 5 of 7 three point attempts to finish with 19 points, a total matched by Chris Paul, who once again struggled with shooting.

But the most fun performance of the night belonged to former UNLV star Marcus Banks, who went 6 of 8 for 12 points and 5 steals in just 15 minutes of playing time.

"It's great, really great to know I still got what it takes to contribute. Runnin' Rebel pride, baby," Banks said after the game.

Patrick Mills finally had a respectable assist to turnover ratio with 8 dishes and 4 turnovers, but he shot just 6 of 17 and finished the series with a 36.1% shooting average. Michael Beasley led the 76ers, breaking through for a 12 point, 14 rebound double-double, alas at the cost of 5 turnovers as he faced off against Solomon Alabi.

Alabi, in his first postseason start, had 6 points, 7 rebounds, a steal, and 2 blocks on 3 for 4 shooting.

Miami head coach Eric Musselman was pleased with the convincing sweep, but warned his team not to get too complacent.

"We're facing the defending champs, who we didn't beat in the regular season. We've still got a lot of work ahead of us."

Miami once again won the turnover battle, 22 to 10. The 76ers averaged 23 turnovers a game during the series, something they'll want to work on for next season.

***

Context Notes
The sweep I thought we should get is exactly what happened. Crimson, who didn't have the game, and thus lacked the massive advantages that come with ownership, was the 76ers GM at the time and she got completely crushed. (Ironically enough, both female GMs I know in basketball sim leagues have controlled the 76ers at one point).

Chris Paul really struggled in the first round, which was frankly surprising. Fortunately we had Aleks Maric and Willie "Wonder" Warren to key the offense and Jamario Moon to shut down all comers. Then different players stepped up in different games to break out the brooms.

And of course, we won the turnover battle going away. The next round would bring a far more difficult test - the Detroit Pistons dynasty, albeit with a fairly new GM in place.

[sterlingice]

Warren, after a poor Game 1 outing against Kevin Martin, took advantage of Martin's limited minutes

What with Martin's great swinging gate defensive prowess in real life

SI

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

What with Martin's great swinging gate defensive prowess in real life

SI

I confess I only just started following the NBA again with any seriousness this past season so I forget K-Mart's defensive ability IRL, but in NLL he's great, or at least he was at this time.

[Izulde]

Miracle Needed For Heat To Advance

Go ahead. Call Greg Oden soft and nerdy because he wears glasses and pets a puppy. We'll see you in the hospital afterwards

Detroit Pistons center Greg Oden still has the infamous quote taped to the inside of his locker. The one where Miami Heat GM Jestor said Oden "wasn't one of the top 3 centers in the league and it wasn't all that close." We all know what happened. Oden went on to post 20 points, 16 rebounds, 11 blocks, and 4 steals in the Pistons' last game against the Heat and dominated the first round playoff series against the Orlando Magic.

"That really made me mad when I heard that media suckup say that about me. It made me determined to whip his butt and we'll do it again in the second round," Oden said.

Indeed, few give the Heat the chance to even so much as avoid a sweep. Even the biggest Miami fans in Chicago don't think the Heat will last more than six games.

Not when Oden averaged 26.3 points, 16.8 rebounds and 2 blocks in the first round. Not when Lebron James posted 27.8 points, 6 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2 blocks. And certainly when Detroit finished 6th in turnovers allowed at 14.8, negating Miami's biggest advantage against superior talent opponents.

The closest Miami got to winning in the regular season? 5 point differential, when Oden exploded on Aleks Maric.

Simply put, there appears to be so little chance of Miami winning that there's no point in doing a lineup or bench comparison.

Detroit is simply too good.

Civil War Breaks Out Between Classic Jestorians and CP3 Era Jestorians

Chris Paul's poor postseason has angered some in the Heat's front office

Rumors are erupting of a war in the Miami Heat's front office over the issue of Chris Paul. Two of the main factions of Jestorball philosophy vehemently disagree over the fate of CP3 and it's a battle that's come up every time the Heat have gotten an intriguing offer for the franchise player.

The two sides:

Classic Jestorball Philosophy
*Height and size are all-important. Nothing shorter than a 6'2 or 6'3 PG. SG should ideally be 6'7 or 6'8. SF should be 6'7 minimum. PF and C can not be shorter than 6'10 for PF or 6'11 for C.
*Passing, handling, and stealing are critical for guards. Big men must be able to rebound and play a traditional post game with high percentage shooting. The SG is the primary focus of the offense, with either the PF or C, ideally the C, the #2 option. Outside/inside.
*Discipline, basketball IQ, consistency, and high work ethic all matter.
*Postseason stats are gospel.

CP3 Era Jestorball Philosophy
*Passing and handling are all-important. The occasional exception will be made for SF/PF/C if they have other outstanding attributes, but it is absolutely essential for guards. Stealing is also preferred for guards.
*Big men must play a traditional post game with high percentage shots, and can not be undersized. 6'9 minimum for PF, 6'10 minimum for C.
*The offense should be built around a three star system: A guard, a post player, and one other.
*Discipline and IQ are most important. High consistency and work ethic are preferred.
*Postseason stats are important, but so is context of matchups.

Although they have some similarities, the two camps also have significant differences and Paul has been a lightning rod for these conflicts of Jestorian basketball scripture after going 6 of 22 in Game 1 against the Pistons, dropping his postseason average to 39.3%.

"It's because he's too (expletive) short," groused one Classic loyalist.

A CP3 adherent was quick to fire back, "You don't know how the rule changes will affect things. Besides, Detroit is still arguably the best team in the NLL."

The Classic Jestorians would see Willie "Wonder" Warren moved to point guard next season after his improvement in his rookie year and stellar playoffs work (16 points - 51.7% shooting, 56.3% from long range average), and CP3 traded either for a big SG or a PF/C who can be Carlos Boozer's heir or allow for Aleks Maric to move to PF.

The CP3ians, on the other hand, favor extending Paul, keeping the Wonderpaul backcourt and the rest of the starting lineup intact for another season, worrying about finding Boozer's replacement further on down the line if Solomon Alabi doesn't prove to be the answer.

It's an important decision. Whichever faction wins this war will go a long way to determining the course of the Heat in future seasons.

One thing is certain - Warren and Maric are the franchise cornerstones and will not be dealt, no matter who comes out on top in this battle. Furthermore, even if the Classic Jestorians win, the commitment to #1 in fewest turnovers allowed every season will continue, perhaps giving rise to a third era in Jestorball philosophy history.

36 Points Not Enough To Save Heat, Boozer Blasted

PF Carlos Boozer cost the Heat Game 2

It was a beautiful thing to watch Chris Paul respond to rumors of a front office fight over his future, hitting 13/23 for 36 points and Aleks Maric fought his way to 20 points and 12 rebounds while largely neutralizing Greg Oden for the second straight game. But once again, it was a Pistons win, 99-81.

Miami yet again lost the turnover battle, 14 in 9 in Game 2 following a 16 to 10 negative margin in Game 1.

"We've got to regroup, come back and hit them hard in Miami," Willie "Wonder" Warren said after hitting 4 of 9 shots to continue his startling playoff shooting accuracy.

A sweat-soaked Paul was grim as he toweled himself off. "We've got to do better than that as a team. I take full responsibility for Game 1, but in this one, we needed people other than me and Aleks to step up. Nobody did that so we lost."

One of those certain other nobodies was Carlos Boozer who shot 4 of 15 to continue his horrific playoff form, shooting just 33.9%. "I don't know why I'm struggling so bad. I can't explain it," Boozer admitted.

The whole Heat team looked exhausted and it seems unlikely they'll be able to avoid the sweep even with Ricky Rubio's injury.

Heat Certain To Be Swept

The Miami Heat unleashed Luke Nevill in a shocking start

It was with considerable amazement that the Detroit Pistons saw tall, lanky blonde Luke Nevill entering the starting lineup, but although the big man was Miami's best player on the night, it made no difference as the Pistons polished off the Heat 105-87 to take a 3-0 series lead.

Nevill hit 9 of 16 shots for 20 points, 8 and 6 blocks, but Chris Paul was limited to 18 minutes because of foul trouble and poor free throw shooting doomed Miami.

Although the shakeup produced good individual results, better than Alvin Gentry's benching of D.J. Augustin, the game's finish left Eric Musselman shaking his head.

"Honestly I'm not sure what all else we can do. We've tried everything in the book. Ricky Rubio going down for them was a huge advantage. If that didn't happen, maybe we take this game, because nobody can stop Lebron James at PG. Nobody."

Once again the Heat were beaten in the turnover department, 17 to 15. So now all that remains is for the final thread to be played out, the sweep to be executed.

Defense, Maric, CP3 Lead Effort

This postseason has been Aleks Maric's coming out party

Just when everyone thought a sweep was on tap, the Miami Heat's defense roared to life, and just like that, the Pistons saw their All-Florida double sweep of Orlando and Miami foiled.

The Heat came out 93-74 winners thanks to a swarming defense that held Detroit to 32.4% shooting and forced 19 turnovers to Miami's 8, the first time this series the Heat have won the turnover battle.

"It's essential to our style that we win the turnover situation. We won't win many games if we don't execute Jestorball," head coach Eric Musselman noted.

Leading the way for Miami was Aleks Maric, who continued his sterling postseason hitting 7 of 11 shots for 18 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks, while simultaneously holding Greg Oden to a shocking 3 of 14 performance.

Luke Nevill played strong as well in his second straight start, 6 of 12 for 13 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks. For the second game in a row, he held Amir Johnson to bad shooting, 3 of 11 in Game 3, 3 of 9 in Game 4.

"I'm just playing for the opportunity for a contract, whether it's here in Miami or elsewhere," Nevill said, having two spectacular showings after originally having been viewed as likely on the outs with the front office.

Henk Norel, a front office favorite, keyed the second team with 8 points and 8 rebounds on 3 of 5 shooting, and Chris Paul willed his way to 26 points via 10 for 24 chucking. Perhaps the most interesting news saw Willie Warren with 7 assists to just one turnover, despite a horrific 2 for 11 shooting night.

"We just needed guys to get more comfortable with their roles and positions. Who knows, maybe we go to Detroit, steal Game 5, and we're back in this. At the very least we've proven we can beat them," Musselman added.

And at the very least, those who have watched the tired and sweat-soaked faces of Lebron James, [b[Chris Paul[/b], Greg Oden, and Aleks Maric can testify that this has been an intense, hard-hitting series with some of the league's greatest talent giving it everything they've got night after night.

Context Notes
I hated the Detroit draw. Although ben was a comparatively new GM at the time, he'd left donkey33's core in place with the exception of acquiring Ricky Rubio, who, you may remember, I wrote an article about earlier.

Rubio went #1 overall in his draft class and was the best passer/handler/defender the NLL had ever seen, but he also shot sub-40%, so he was an interesting player.

Still, we'd avoided the sweep I thought sure we'd get hammered with, so maybe we could sneak it out.

[Izulde]

Intriguing Offseason Ahead For Heat

Chris Paul's future is generating the biggest buzz

51-31. Second place in the Southeast. Second round playoff exit, avoiding a sweep at the hands of Detroit and nearly taking two games. Establishing the groundwork for the future. No matter how you look at it, Jestor's second full season in South Beach was a major success.

It's a continuation of a pattern that started in the 2011 offseason, after Jestor took over for the last handful of games from the previous regime. The lineup at that time was:

PG Ramon Sessions
SG Richard Jefferson
SF Rudy Gay
PF Stanley Robinson
C Pau Gasol

The team won 29 games, but did not have its own first round pick, that #6 selection instead owned by the Pistons, who used it to select Rodney Stuckey.

We covered the whirlwind of trades and the results earlier this season, but over the course of that two full seasons, the lineup completely changed and became

PG Chris Paul
SG Willie Warren
SF Jamario Moon
PF Carlos Boozer/Luke Nevill
C Aleks Maric

Without question a major upgrade in talent from what the Heat first started with.

But stability is never the watchword in a Jestor-GM'ed team, so let's take a look at the positions and try to project where things will shake out.

Point Guard
Chris Paul
-Regular Season: 20.9 PPG, 7.2 APG, 2.2 SPG, 49.4%, 40% 3 pt, 4.5 A/TO
-Playoffs: 23.3 PPG, 5 APG, 1.8 SPG, 44.8%, 38.9% 3 pt, 2.5 A/TO
The source of a major dispute in the Heat's front office. Got called out by head coach Eric Musselman for poor playoff performances and responded by scoring 36, 16, 26, and 33 points with good accuracy in Games 2-5 against the Pistons. Long considered the franchise face after coming to Miami, but that may change.

Jackson Ayorinde's Take
"This isn't a situation where the Heat feel pressured to make a move. Paul still has another season left, so Miami can be patient. You also aren't going to see a CP3 for a package situation like what happened with the Timberwolves. It's going to be a franchise player for franchise player swap or the deal doesn't happen. For Miami fans, who'd be more familiar with the Southeast, that means somebody on the order of a Demar Derozan or B.J. Mullens. Top 3 to 5 PER guy and player for another Top 3 to 5 PER guy and player. Given the traditional NLL tendencies in trading, I don't see many teams willing to offer that kind of value, so he'll probably stay in Miami and extend."

Willie Warren
-Regular Season: 13.3 PPG, 1.1 SPG, 45.8%, 32.8% 3 point, +8.5 On
-Playoffs: 11.4 PPG, 1.1 SPG, 2.4 A/TO, 43.8%, 40% 3 point, +15.2 Net
Highest +/- net of any Heat player in the postseason. Showed major improvements as the season wore on, and although he struggled against Lebron James in the latter games of the Pistons series, he showed surprising floor generalship, fueling speculation that CP3 is on his way out and Wonder is moving to PG.

Jackson Ayorinde's Take
"Showed some bouts of inconsistency in the playoffs and chucked a bit against Detroit, but he was a raw rookie. He'll get another season to prove himself and continue to develop, but whether that's at the point guard spot or the shooting guard spot is anyone's guess. Most likely one of the keys to Miami's future, unless the front office changes its mind about him."

Mantas Kalnietas
Third stringer who showed good floor generalship, but his shooting percentage may keep him on the low end of the bench next year.

Marcus Banks
Very solid reserve for yet another season, shooting a respectable percentage in both the regular season and the postseason. Won't be traded anywhere because of UNLV ties he shares with the GM, but will he still be able to serve as the team's main top backup PG next year? If the Heat think no, then they'll need to decide whether to give Kalnietas another chance or go after someone via draft, free agency, or trade.

Jarrett Jack
One of the team's most accurate shooters in both phases of the season and the second unit's offensive sparkplug. Look for the Heat to try and bring him back next season, as his acquisition was the small move that pushed Miami into Southeast title contention.

Shooting Guard
Anthony Morrow
Fell out of favor midway through the season. Pure offensive shooter that lost his role to Jack. He's an unrestricted free agent, so other teams will be free to bid on his services, as a Heat source says there is "zero" chance Miami tries to keep Morrow.

Small Forward
Jamario Moon
-Regular Season: 6.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 1.2 SPG, 44%, 100% DSTP, 0.8 PA/SF
-Playoffs: 6.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 1.1 SPG, 43%, 100% DSTP, 0.8 PA/SF
Shot better than expected and protected the ball comparatively well relative to initial fears. Brought in to serve as a defensive fulcrum and performed that role brilliantly in both parts of the season. Appears at this point a lock to stay in Miami, but if the Heat find an upgrade, there's a lot of teams who would be attracted to his defensive specialist, low shot-taking role.

Tasmin Mitchell
One of the biggest revelations of Miami's season. The 55th overall pick became an immediate protege of Moon's and stopped over 90% of all drives in both the regular season and the postseason, and proved to be a pretty accurate shooter. While no one considers him a future starter, he showed this season he's precisely the sort of rotational player that can make a difference. One of the two most unlikely to be traded players on the roster, given the ratio of production to contract.

Marcus Vinicius
Expiring contract that will be waived. Had no impact in Miami.

Power Forward
Carlos Boozer
-Regular Season: 13.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 47.6%
-Playoffs: 33.9% is all you need to know
No story was stranger than Boozer's this season. Traded along with the Suns' 2016 1st to Miami in the offseason for expiring contracts, he proved a valuable rebounding force, then promptly had one of the worst playoff performances in NLL history, eventually benched. His status with the organization for next season is unclear.

Jackson Ayorinde's Take
"A lot of this is going to depend on what they do with Luke Nevill, but in the end, what the Heat want to do probably won't matter. They're not going to pay someone to take the contract when it becomes a $27 million expiring after this next season. The Heat have survived the first year, they'll survive the second, and then in the third, it becomes an extremely valuable trade chip. I just don't see FA-obsessed GMs in this league making the move to acquire Boozer."

Henk Norel
Extremely accurate shooter in the regular season, whose percentage dipped in the postseason, but with a much smaller sample size. An absolute steal as a minimum contract signing and one Miami will probably bring back.

Center
Aleks Maric
-Regular Season: 17.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 56.5%
-Playoffs: 17.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 50%, 2.6 A/TO ratio
Second on the team in A/TO ratio in the playoffs and did an excellent job helping contain Greg Oden while producing offense in the Pistons series. The one player on the entire roster guaranteed to play for the Heat forever, as he's a young, rising star.

Jackson Ayorinde's Take
"Let me put it this way. The Memphis Grizzlies have a better shot of winning the NLL title next season than Maric does of leaving Miami. He'll get his big extension and payraise before free agency and even if he doesn't, the Heat will use RFA rights to match any offer that comes his way. Lots of teams have asked about him and Jestor always gives them a terse No and hangs up the phone. Easily the most loved player in the organization by the front office and one of the team's most popular players with the fans."

Solomon Alabi
The rookie showed very good defensive ability after coming over from Dallas and did reasonably well defending Michael Beasley in the playoffs as a starter. He's also the player who's generated the most calls after CP3. Some think he's a pretty good to be gone. Others point to Miami's flux in the big man situation and Alabi's 3.3 A/TO ratio in the playoffs and say no.

Jackson Ayorinde's Take
"A lot of teams have expressed interest and there's been a couple of offers, one of which could very well result in Alabi's heading out of town. It's an offer that greatly intrigues the Heat, but it's going to depend on how things are looking when the time for that hypothetical deal arrives. Honestly, I'd put it at 60/40 he won't be in Miami at the start of the season. I see a lot more serious offers coming the Heat's way and even more that will be very tempting to the front office."

Luke Nevill
Appeared to wash out of the Heat's plans before shutting down Amir Johnson and shooting over 50% as a starter in the last few games of the Pistons series. It's very telling that with him in the lineup, the Heat won Game 4 and almost won Game 5 in Detroit. But will that be enough for Miami to remain committed to him?

Jackson Ayorinde's Take
"This is the single most important decision the Heat have to make in the offseason. There's going to be a ton of competition for Nevill's signature and Miami needs to figure out which Nevill is the real one - the one that looked really mediocre in the regular season and got shoved out of the rotation, or the one that came out of nowhere to give the Heat a fighting chance against Detroit. Making the wrong decision here could lead to a Monty Myles reprisal."

Draft Notes
The Heat hold the 20th pick in the draft via the Los Angeles Clippers from the Pau Gasol trade. Rumor has it they could also be acquiring a mid-first round pick to give them two selections. With 29 private workout options, Miami figures to canvas a wide variety of players at multiple positions. The team's still expected to go swingman in most mock drafts, but anything other than a tweener forward seems a likely possibility.

Heat Want To See How New Rules Play Out

Rumor has it that Chris Paul wants to prove it's he, not Deron Williams, who is the NLL's best point guard

Breaking news out of Miami says that Chris Paul is officially off the block, at least for the offseason. Sources say the front office and coaching staff, after mapping out various scenarios, have decided that the Heat's franchise star may perform better and more consistently with the impending rule changes and they're not willing to risk a trade, particularly when full value doesn't seem likely in return.

"The most aggressive suitors have been Southeast teams," one source said on condition of anonymity. "That was an area of concern for the front office, because the last thing they wanted to do was to trade him to a division rival and have it blow up in their faces. They also did some hypothesis testing with the new rules and even the Classic Jestorians admitted that under the new rules, the height and size issue may not be as big a concern as it's been in years past."

That is not to say that Paul is a guarantee, however. The source went on to explain that the new rules will emphasis team chemistry and system fitness far more than ever before, and if CP3 doesn't appear to be fitting, he could conceivably go on the block again, even after an expected extension signing.

"The way it's looking right now, there's very few players who will be worth trading him for, and his value might even increase under the new league rules," another anonymous source said.

Both insiders declined to discuss any of the other impending issues facing the Heat this offseason, other than saying the team was awaiting results from its massive scouting canvas before deciding the fates of several other players on the roster.

Context Notes
Game 5 was close, but the Pistons won. Don't remember the particulars. In any case, the more important thing to note here is that it was the last season under DDS 1. After untold hours of work, the administration team came up with a manual league conversion to DDS 2, so the upcoming season was to be the NLL's first using DDS 2.

As a result, there was a lot of uncertainty over trade talks and the like in the offseason. Nobody knew how the new engine would affect players, because an absolutely accurate conversion was impossible.

[Izulde]

Uncertainty Clouding Miami's Front Office

A scary looking Jestor was spotted roaming the streets of Miami, mumbling to himself

Word out of the Miami Heat front offices is that GM Jestor is close to resigning. Sources say the impending rule changes, including the abolition of the player agency monopoly, and the probable shift in game style, have left him quite tired and losing enthusiasm for the job.

"He's proven that Jestorball can work under the current system, but he doesn't feel like it can work again with the new rules. Plus there's the fact of being in the Southeast, where the Bobcats and Magic are going to be dominant for years to come. This season was probably Miami's best shot at a title, so he'd rather walk away now, having successfully rebuilt the team," one front office employee said.

If he does resign, something that's happened twice in his stops at Orlando and Miami, whoever inherits the franchise is in a good position with the Wonderpaul backcourt of Chris Paul and Willie "Wonder" Warren, and rising young star big Aleks Maric, who received votes for the Most Improved Player award.

The Heat are in a bit of a tricky financial situation vis a vis free agent Luke Nevill and two more years on Carlos Boozer's contract, but once that $27 million and change contract of Boozer's expires in two seasons, Miami could well be in position to land the marquee free agent that pushes them over the top.

If Orlando and Charlotte haven't reached the current Cleveland/Detroit/and yes, Oklahoma City levels by then.

Midnight Discussions Have Narrowed Miami's Board To One

The Miami Heat have a draft list of one player after going through private workouts and visiting the camp games. Team officials were tight-lipped on the target, but it's believed the player is one who fits the Jestorball philosophy in a draft reportedly short on those matching the system.

The team also allegedly believes the target could still be there at 20, but are prepared to move up to make sure of getting their man.

In other news, conversations around Solomon Alabi have intensified, with one source remarking that it's "80% Alabi will be playing for someone else next year. There's one offer we're quite interested in and another offer we're seriously considering."

Alabi Situation Dependent; Kalnietas Attracting Attention

A dearth of pass-first point guards has made Mantas Kalnietas a much more valuable commodity

The latest rumors out of South Beach are that Solomon Alabi's stay in Miami is now one determined by situation. The Heat have reportedly agreed to deal Alabi for a mid first-round pick, provided the other team's target is gone by that point, and Miami's own target is still there.

But Alabi isn't the only one-time Dallas Maverick, now Miami Heat subject to trade talk discussions. Sources close to the front office say the lack of quality pass-first point guards has made Mantas Kalnietas an attractive option for a number of teams and that the Heat are willing to trade the 28 year old to be for the right situation, as the team feels set at point guard with Chris Paul, Willie "Wonder" Warren, Marcus Banks, and likely free agent returnee Jarrett Jack all in the mix.

The Miami/Dallas connections don't end there. One team official anonymously remarked that the Heat were also very much in play for Clippers combo guard Jon Scheyer, but couldn't quite match the Mavericks' offer.

That same official also commented on the parallelism between the two teams, "From what we know, Dallas's front office is an admirer of Jestorball, and the Mavericks, Heat, and Bulls all are in what we would classify as the Chicago School of basketball philosophy, coined after the Bulls, of course. In that same school, you have Chicago Style, as practiced by the Bulls, Jestorball, as practiced by the Heat, and Jackson Ayorinde is still working on a phrase for the Mavericks' philosophy. He joked that Wallball would be a good one."

Musselman's Abrupt Resignation Stuns South Florida

Eric Musselman is getting some international experience as the new head coach of Spartak

Cries of angst could be heard throughout South Florida when Eric Musselman announced that he was leaving the Miami Heat to coach Spartak St. Petersburg in Russia. Ironically enough, it was conversations with GM Jestor about international living and travel that helped Musselman make his decision.

"I enjoyed talking with Jestor about the different places he and have I have lived and traveled. It made me hungry to go abroad again and get the chance to coach for a while in a completely different country. Spartak made me the offer after my interview and I decided to take it. It's difficult to leave Miami and the greatest basketball league in the world, but I'm looking forward to the challenge of coaching and living in Russia, and I think it'll make be an even better coach," Musselman said.

Musselman was hired midway through the 2012-13 season, following Flip Saunders' firing and immediately turned the Heat around, taking Miami to a winning record and missing the playoffs on the Coinflip. This season, the popular coach, fully embracing the Jestorball concept of the organization, led Miami to a challenge for the Southeast title and took the Heat to a second round playoff appearance before losing to the eventual East champion Detroit Pistons.

As if that wasn't enough, all the coaches in the league were released from their contracts as a result of the breaking up of the agency monopolies. Thus, all the teams in the NLL needed to scramble to fill their staffs. After interviewing a number of candidates, the Miami Heat settled on two top choices - Doc Rivers, head coach of the New Orleans Hornets last season, and Nate McMillan, head coach of the Milwaukee Bucks.

The front office debated over which of the two coaches to pursue before finally offering to Rivers, who spurned the Heat and fellow Southeast team Atlanta to sign with the Bucks. Rivers wasn't short on commentary concerning his choices.

"There was absolutely no way I was going to Miami. I'm a successful head coach. I don't buy into the Heat forcing their head coach into the front office's basketball philosophy. I also really don't like a prima donna celebrity GM like they have there. No disrespect to Atlanta, but they're rebuilding and I went through that already in New Orleans. I want a proven playoff team with a low key GM, so Milwaukee was a great fit for me."


Nate McMillan was eager to show his commitment to Jestorball

With Rivers off the board, the Miami Heat swiftly made their offer to McMillan, who just as eagerly took the job and smiled enthusiastically all through the press conference announcing his hiring.

"I admired the work Jestor did in turning this team around and I'm ecstatic to be a part of Miami's hunt for a championship. I've heard what Doc said and I just have to laugh. The general manager's your boss. Besides, when you've got an organizational ideology that everyone believes in, from the front office, to the coaching staff, to the players, that creates success, because we're all on the same page."

McMillan fits much of the profile of the Musselman hire: A mid-40s experienced head coach with some playoff experience to his credit and above .500 career record known for his ability to help develop players. He, along with the rest of the new Miami staff, believes in the Heat's high pressure defense that forces turnovers and steals.


New first assistant coach Reggie Theus

Reggie Theus was the first of Miami's coaching staff to sign on the dotted line. He had offers from both the Heat and the Denver Nuggets to become the first assistant, but the UNLV connection with Jestor and the winning position of Miami made it an easy decision for the former New Mexico State head coach.

"It's a great situation to be in, with a winning team and a fellow UNLV guy. Let's work on bringing the Heat an NLL championship," Theus said.


Paul Pressey, the new 2nd assistant

The Miami Heat wanted Larry Krystkowiak as their second assistant, but he opted for the rebuilding opportunity with Southeast rival Atlanta instead and so the team tabbed their second choice, Paul Pressey, a journeyman assistant noted for his preference of a fast-paced system, the only new Heat coach to champion faster than average tempo.

"It'll be fun arguing for speed with the fantastic perimeter players we have in guys like Chris Paul and Willie Warren, and I'm excited about the rest of the guys on the staff," said Pressey.


Third assistant Ed Pinckney

Ed Pinckney was Miami's third choice for the third assistant, but he filled two of the Heat's most important coaching criteria - A former professional player who agrees with Miami's high pressure defensive system first put in place by Musselman.

"Heck, I'm just happy to have a job," grinned Pinckney. "But seriously, all of us on the staff have similar beliefs on one side of the ball, and can have healthy discussions about how to handle the offense, while still staying true to Jestorball."

All of the coaches save Pinckney are also noted for their ability to teach and develop players, the third critical component of Miami's coaching staff search.

***

Context Notes
This won't be the last time I think about leaving, just so you know. I think I said that last time.

But in any case, there was one guy we really, really wanted in the draft after scouting and I was hoping like hell we'd find a way to get him. In fact, I wanted him even more than I wanted Willie "Wonder" Warren the year before. But would we be able to? That was a tough call.

One of the effects of the switch from DDS 1 to DDS 2 was the release of all coaches from their contracts because of using the DDS 2 coaches' database... and Eric Musselman wasn't there.

This depressed the shit out of me, because I'm the type of guy who, when he finds a coach that works with his system and his players, sticks with that guy (as opposed to my notorious trade-happy nature).

Best part about the new staff was definitely Reggie Theus. Loved keeping that UNLV connection going.

[Izulde]

Remember when I said there was just one guy in the draft I really, really wanted who I thought would fall into my range? Well, it was a tense, nervous draft session. Things were even more nerve-wracking because this year there was a running chat.

Highlights included a fight with Erick, GM of the archrival Magic over Tasmin Mitchell. I said he was a good player; Erick said he was trash, and it went back and forth from there.

Anyway, the waiting continued and my guy was dropping, dropping, dropping. I had a trade agreement in place to move up to #15 and get my guy, but the Knicks, who had a trade agreement with the Rockets for that pick, said they would do the three way if and only if their target, Daniel Orton, was off the board. He wasn't, so the waiting continued for us at 20.

Or rather, not waiting, but trying to move up. Memphis was also trying to move up to get our guy, as were a couple other teams. Shades of Willie "Wonder" Warren last season.

Tense moment at #17 or 18, where the Charlotte Bobcats, who had moved up from #19 in a verbal with the Kings, almost took our guy. They knew who we wanted, too, because he was perfect for our system. But they took Avery Bradley, a potential shutdown defender, instead.

Pick #19. Officially the Bobcats' pick, but verbaled to Sacramento, then GM'ed by Cleasby. Memphis was beating down the Kings' door and I had Cleasby in a private chat, trying to talk him into flip-flopping the #19 and #20 picks for Mantas Kalnietas.

I found out from the Grizzlies that the Kings really wanted Luke Babbitt and were afraid I'd take him. At that time, my policy was to never, ever take a player from UNR (It's a funny thing how I ended up breaking this rule in another league, but more on that some other time). I told Cleasby I would never take Babbitt, being a loyal UNLV fan.

He waffled.

I did something I never did before and pressured.

He waffled.

I pressured more.

Then, just as he's about to crack, the server goes down.

The chat applet crashed the website and left NLL in the dark for like 15 minutes. Fortunately, I was able to contact Cleasby elsewhere and continue the hard sell. Time was literally running out because the deadline for the pick to be posted was almost here.

And then...


New Mexico SF Darington Hobson looks bemused at the drama surrounding his selection

Moments before the deadline for the 19th pick, the NLL draft room lost power, throwing the proceedings into chaos. In the end, that momentary confusion proved a fitting prelude to the announcement of the Charlotte Bobcats taking the University of New Mexico's SF Darington Hobson to trade his rights to the Miami Heat in a three-way deal with Miami and the Sacramento Kings. Pick #20 is headed to the Kings along with an unnamed player for Hobson's rights.

A beaming Miami GM Jestor was effusive in praise of Hobson as he delivered the press conference in Charlotte's media room, as per NLL rules.

"We went into the private workouts with a short list of guys we were considering for the 20th pick. Some of those players we really liked shot up out of range of our draft board. We were also in conversation with the Knicks to send Solomon Alabi for the 15th overall pick if their target, Daniel Orton was off the board, so we knew we were looking at the 15-20 range. As I said, some of the guys we liked, in particular Renardo Sidney, originally a mid first projection, soon moved so far up we knew we had no chance to get them.

A funny thing happened to our short list with the rest of the guys. A lot of the ones we originally thought we were targeting came in for workouts and showed they didn't match up with the Jestorball philosophy. In fact, we soon found that it was not a good spot to be picking for Jestorball guys.

Except for one.

Darington Hobson absolutely wowed us with his potential in passing and handling, the best of anyone we invited. He has work to do in that area, but he showed a great willingness to buy into the Jestorball system and he has the physical makeup to be great in that area. His shooting potential also impressed us and once he gets his form down, he looks to be a vital part of the Heat's offense. He has good boarding ability for a wing as well, and rebounding was an area of concern for us last year, although again, he'll need to work on it.

His one on one defense admittedly looked weak, but he showed some good promise at stealing the ball, a very good ability to draw fouls, and we believe he has the basketball intelligence, consistency, and work ethic to become a key cog in our rotation.

But of course, all the physical and intangible tools in the scouts' eyes don't mean a thing in a Jestorball front office. We needed to go back and look at the game tape and live game scouting we had on him.

First we looked at the NCAA games again and we noticed his willingness to score and rebounding work in the first round win over the Cyclones. The shooting inefficiency put up a small red flag, but it fit the workout profile we did on him. He again showed that boarding ability in the second round loss to the Tigers, and also showed passing instincts.

Then we reviewed the camp game tapes and notes and were pleased by his markedly improved shooting accuracy and his demonstrated passing ability. In short, everything we'd learned in the workout was confirmed by looking at his live action performances and we knew this was without question the guy we wanted. As some of you may have read before, we only had one target in our range this draft, and we're absolutely thrilled to get him in the second half of the draft."

We also had a second round pick, and since I don't feel like going through the saving image, uploading and all that for a 2nd rounder, I'll just include the text:

It wasn't the audience that was surprised at the Heat's second round selection of PG Malcolm Delaney of Virginia Tech. It was scouts, who were shocked by Miami GM Jestor selecting a player known to have poor passing potential and only average handling ceiling.

Jackson Ayorinde, NLL commentator and expert on the Miami Heat, wasn't nearly as surprised with the selection.

"One of the biggest problems plaguing the Heat last season was inconsistent shooting and a lack of well-rounded bench scoring options. Delaney, like Darington Hobson, who they traded up a spot to get in the first round, is a high consistency player, with some quality shooting and scoring upside. He also projects to be above average at stealing the ball and to have respectable discipline and basketball intelligence. I like the pick for this stage of the draft and believe he'll find a role, even in the Jestorball system."

Jestor confirmed his pleasure with the selection.

"We were really impressed with the shooting accuracy he showed in the pre-draft camp. For those of you who like numbers, he shot 20/41 (48.8%), 11/22 (50%) from 3 point range in the three camp games. That was good for a 19.7 point per game average, two 10 point games and of course, his 39 point monster in Day 3. He also averaged 2 steals a game and a 2.0 A/TO ratio, which, while it's quite low for what we look for from a point guard, is acceptable given what else Malcolm bring to the table.

Essentially we see him as the potential heir apparent to the Jarrett Jack role on our team. That is to say, a high octane, accurate bench scorer at SG, with some minutes here and there at PG if he proves capable of handling the point. Combo guard is one of the biggest areas we were targeting in this draft and we were fortunate that our last remaining target for the position fell this far."

***

Memphis swore and so did Oklahoma City, both of whom had Hobson high on their list.

I never used to really be that way, but ever since the Jarrett Jack trade, I've really enjoyed having combo guard 6th men and have used it to success in other leagues, such as Jameer Nelson in NSL, where he's occupied that role for the first two seasons. Season #1 was a 51 win season and a 2nd round exit in Steve Nash's expiring year with Marcin Gortat the main scorer and a bunch of system-fitting roleplayers.

Year #2 has been mostly a young squad, but in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, we're 11-11 and the #6 seed. That's also where I broke my no UNR players rule, but I'll tell that story another time.

For now, I was pleased with our draft. Thrilled, really, since I would have been totally stuck if Hobson would've escaped us.

[Izulde]

All Eyes On Warren, Maric, Hobson

Darington Hobson has impressed Miami coaches with his passing and handling ceiling

The summer league is almost upon us and all around the NLL, fans are set to see some of the most exciting young talent go head to head. South Beach is no exception, where all six of the Miami Heat's eligible players will be playing this summer.

PG Willie Warren - 2nd year - Oklahoma
Wonder Warren, who wrested the starting SG spot from Daequan Cook in his rookie year, will be one of the most watched players this summer. He got a tryout at point guard against the Pistons in the playoffs and showed glimpses of being the sort of ball-secure point guard Jestorball demands. With trade rumors once again circulating around Chris Paul, the world will be seeing if he's capable of replacing CP3 as the team's point guard and future #1 option after he showed a greater ability to demand the ball.

PG Malcolm Delaney - Rookie - Virginia Tech
The second round pick looked a little disappointing in his first look since the draft, and speculation that he'll be able to fill the Jarrett Jack role appears to have been premature. That said, he does show the potential to have decent stealing instincts, and his handling is already acceptable for a reserve guard. Will be fighting to earn a roster spot this summer.

SF Tasmin Mitchell - 2nd year - LSU
Mitchell performed far above what scouts expected after being drafted late in the second round last season. Although he's not a standout in any one area, he has the quality all-around game that defines a glue guy. Worth noting that he shot 50% in the playoffs last season. One of the front office's most loved players.

SF Darington Hobson - Rookie - New Mexico
Splendid passing and handling and defensive rebounding upside for a wing. If he fills out his potentials, he's a potential 1-3, maybe even an undersized 4 in some systems. Considered by some organizations to have been a steal at #19. Don't believe those who say Hobson's going to pull a Warren and knock Jamario Moon out of the lineup in his first year, though. The Heat will want to use him as a 6th man alternating between the 2 and 3 so as not to disrupt the harmony of their starting lineup's shot distribution.

C Aleks Maric - 4th year - Nebraska
Miami's most untouchable player on the trade front, he appears to have regressed in his nose for scoring. That's worrisome to the Heat, who relied heavily on his offensive production last season as their #2 option. If he continues to show a passiveness in taking shots, that concern will only grow. This summer will be significant for his re-establishing himself as a primary option. The coaching staff will likely also try him at PF, an echo of two years ago when he played the 4, Pau Gasol the 5 in Miami's late season charge for the playoffs.

C Solomon Alabi - 2nd year - Florida State
Yoda was the subject of numerous trade rumors this past offseason and was almost sent to the Knicks in a three way that would have involved Miami drafting Hobson at #15. Fortunately for the Heat, Hobson lasted to 19 and they were able to keep Alabi, who shows underrated ability to handle the ball. He also appears to be a quality free throw shooter and it's quite possible last year's #19 overall pick could work his way into the lineup before this year's #19, perhaps as recently as this season.

Projected Summer League Lineup
PG Willie Warren
SG Darington Hobson
SF Tasmin Mitchell
PF Aleks Maric
C Solomon Alabi

Heat Go 3-2, Losses By A Combined 4 Points

Guess who showed off great ability to run the point? Willie "Wonder" Warren, that's who

Oh so close. So close to an unblemished summer league record. But a 3 point loss to the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder and an agonizing 1 point defeat to the Dallas Mavericks stopped the Miami Heat from perfection in the baking month of July.

But much was learned from this set of five games, such as Aleks Maric looking ready and willing to again be one of the main forces on offense. He averaged 22.2 points and 12 rebounds, with the sort of textbook accuracy required of Jestorball big men. More specifically, he shot 51/75 (68%) and never had a bad shooting game. He was also 1/1 from 3 point range.

Another big question was whether Willie "Wonder" Warren could be capable of running the offense. 18.8 points, 6.2 assists and 0.8 turnovers in 25.4 minutes a game later, Warren posted a Chris Paul-esque 7.8 A/TO ratio. The chances of CP3 going elsewhere may just have increased considerably. That's not to say Warren was worry-free, however. He did have a clunker game and was bad from 3 point range - 10/33 (30.3%). In counter point, he shot well overall - 36/73 (49.3%) and was 50% or better every game but one.

The flashy rookie everyone wanted to see was Darington Hobson, and the first round pick didn't disappoint, good for 12.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.4 steals, and a respectable 2 A/TO ratio. 3/8 from 3 point range (37.5%), 27/49 (55.1%) overall. His stellar play raised further gossip that Jamario Moon may not only lose his starting spot, but be on his way out of Miami.

Solomon Alabi, who some considered a possible contender for a starting spot, underwhelmed, showing little of the killer rebounding instinct, defensive playmaking, or shooting accuracy - 21/46 (45.7%) - that the Heat have come to expect from him.

Last year's second round phenom, Tasmin Mitchell, started well, going 9/14 the first two games, but struggled the rest of the way at just 6/21, making for a somewhat deceptive 15/35 (42.9%) and 6.8 points, 4 rebounds, and steal per game.

Former Heat player Leo Lyons was a fun invitee to watch, but his 7.4 points, 5 rebounds, and 18/31 shooting (58.1%) were merely those of an average, if well-liked reserve.

One player who likely cost himself a roster spot was second round pick Malcolm Delaney, who was shockingly terrible at 23/69 (33.3%), 8/30 (26.7%) from 3 point range, and that's with an 8/15, 3/6 game. All of this chucking gave the lie to the former Virgina Tech star's 12.4 points a contest and the indication from the front office is that he won't be signed after that dismal showing.

***

Context Notes
One of those cases where the record looks deceptive. 4 stinking points from 5-0. If this would have been the regular season I'd have been cursing like mad. Since it was summer league, I settled for a muttered fuck or two.

Malcolm Delaney was probably the single most disappointing player I've ever seen in a summer league.

[Izulde]

Jackson Ayorinde Examines NLL Basketball Philosophy

The Detroit Group is more Plato (L), while the Chicago School is more Aristotle (R), if only because Heat GM Jestor has been dubbed an Aristotelian by numerous people

Even casual NLL fans are familiar with the trend of teams running for defense in the wake of the Detroit Pistons' dynasty of five rings in six years, and the hot new flavor of offense started by the Chicago Bulls in the last few seasons. But what they might not be familiar with is that these two opposing forces, the Detroit Group and the Chicago School, not only have their various adherents, but dominate the NLL ideological scene.

Of course, not every team falls into one of the two camps. The Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs of the Najira years, for example, can not be said to fall under either camp's umbrella. But enough of the NLL's franchises can be classified that it's worth looking at in greater detail.

The Detroit Group
Founder - Detroit Pistons under Donkey the Ring King
The Detroit Group's philosophy can be summed up in one word - defense, defense, and more defense. As a result, it was difficult to get a sense of any of the flavors of the adherents, so this section will be a bit thin. Just know that defense is law and you'll have the basics for these teams.

Donkey Utopia variant - Phoenix Suns - Donkey the Ring King
After an interview with the Phoenix Suns GM, I discovered that the Donkey Utopia philosophy is as old as Jestorball, perhaps even older. Developed around 2005, the Donkey Utopia system emphasizes defense and size, with bangers in the post, and usually relies on a star scorer (see Lebron James) as the main focal point of the offense. That said, there's been a slight shift lately, with shooting accuracy getting greater attention than ever before. They're also willing to be flexible on defense if the player makes up for it in other areas - see Aubrey Coleman, who stayed longer in the desert than most expected before being dealt to Minnesota.

Jinky Racer Pacer Magic variant - Indiana Pacers - Jinkymagic
The Pacers GM came into the league preaching the defense gospel and I believe it's still the main source of their belief system, hence the placement here. But I also overheard their GM say they were acquiring a touch of Jestorball, so they may be better situated as the dividing line between the two main conglomerates in a few seasons' time. Unlike the Suns and the Heat, however, they appear to have no size requirements - witness 6'7 Jon Brockman as the starting PF, something Miami only did with great trepidation two years ago.

ben - Detroit Pistons
ben hasn't been in charge long enough to establish his own system's identity, especially since he's in the birthplace of the Detroit Group. That said, it's clear he's hewed to his predecessor's defense-first philosophy and shows no signs of deviating from it, which is more than enough to put him here.

Here is where my research on the Detroit Group unfortunately petered out, and I was only able to determine a couple of teams who would seem strongly aligned with the Detroit Group.

Indynate - Los Angeles Lakers
Cleasby - Sacramento Kings

What's interesting about this is that three of the Detroit Group are GMs in the Pacific (Suns, Lakers, Kings).

Note: There may be other teams who fall into the Detroit Group category, but with so many new GMs, who either don't seem to have indicated a leaning one way or the other, or who haven't been in long enough to say for sure where they belong, I thought it best to list only those who are firmly entrenched on one side or the other.

The Chicago School
Founder - Chicago Bulls under Manu
While the Detroit Group can be said to have defense as their first, second, and even third priority in some variants, to say that offense is the primary concern of the Chicago School is a vast oversimplification. That said, it would be fair to say that the Chicago School teams are offensively-oriented.

Chicago Style - Chicago Bulls - Manu
Although not the oldest Chicago School system, the Bulls were responsible for the pendulum swing from defense to offense in the league, so they're credited with founding the school. Architect Manu values passing, handling, intelligence, discipline, consistency, and shooting accuracy for all five positions and, unlike most teams, does not necessarily buy into the need for stars as such. The Bulls are also known for their love of big men who have range out to the three point line.

Jestorball - Miami Heat - Jestor
The system's history and evolution has been well covered elsewhere, thanks to the Heat's front office's media-friendly approach. There's starting to be a shift towards a new sub-variant, though, tenatively called Fusion Jestorball, which combines elements of Classic and CP3ian. Regardless of the variant, passing and handling are the most important concern in Jestorball, although the Heat have shown flexibility on that score, similar to Donkey Utopia - see Jamario Moon. Shooting accuracy is also all-position important, especially for big men, as are discipline and IQ. The offense is based on an outside/insider scorer concept, preferably with a three star system. They also hate what they term tweener forwards and finesse centers, the latter of which likely represents the sharpest break with the Chicago Style. More on Fusion Jestorball or whatever it's eventually called subvariant as it develops. Classic Jestorball, as noted above, is one of the oldest systems, along with Donkey Utopia. Weighs both scouting and statistics, but will lean more heavily on statistics when evaluating players.

Wallball - Dallas Mavericks - Billy Bucket
The Dallas Mavericks are said to be great admirers of Jestorball, and indeed there's parallels between the two teams - a dominant scoring point guard (Chris Paul/John Wall), a second option big man (Aleks Maric/Artiom Parakhouski, and, from what I'm hearing, Dallas is becoming more and more interested in the sorts of players Jestorball is attracted to. Thus far, the main difference seems to be in how they value specific players, rather than anything system-specific, but time will tell, as Dallas is fairly new to the Chicago School.

Chan Roulette - Houston Rockets - Iceman
Another recent convert to the Chicago School, the Rockets said recently they value passing and handling for their players, and view defense as a function of rebounding, stealing, and blocks in a high pressure swarm rather than individual defense. Sound familiar? It should, as the passing and handling can be said to be a cardinal feature of Chicago School teams profiled thus far, and high pressure defense with stealing talent rather than individual handling coincides with how Miami tends to view its guards. The emphasis on blocks for big men, however, is unique to Houston. And of course, as trigger and trade happy a GM as Gary Chan is demands a Roulette system name.

Big B.J. Balls - Charlotte Bobcats - knightdemon
Okay, I need to come up with another name for the system, but the humor of the alliteration was too much to resist. It also attests to Charlotte's tendency to run three big men at the 3/4/5, in part because of their recent acquisition of multiple talented big men. Probably the most truly offensively oriented of the five Chicago School teams profiled. On the other hand, as their trade for and plans to play at the point of Dwayne Wade indicates, they aren't nearly as fanatical about handling as the rest of their brethren. Cited Jestorball in relation to their pick of Gordon Hayward in the most recent draft and strongly considered taking Miami's absolute #1 target, Darington Hobson, right in front of the Heat.

***

Context Notes
This is one of my favorite league-wide articles I've written, so I'm leaving it as a standalone. This generated considerable discussion of various strategies and led to a few other GMs publishing their own system articles.

Definitely an evolutionary process over the seasons, even for Jestorball (We're starting to undergo a shift in our thinking for this upcoming season).

[Izulde]

Silence and more silence

The Miami Heat's front office and GM is being uncharacteristically quiet

Certain things one always expects in July in the US, such as Fourth of July parades and picnics, the sights and sounds of fireworks, family vacations, and, of course, extravagant and elaborate free agent courting by the Miami Heat.

But with the breakup of the player agency monopolies and the overnight growth of independent agents, the team has gone on stealth mode. Nonetheless, careful investigation has revealed the following facts about the Heat's free agency plans and other offseason news:

They'll be looking for a third string point guard
No surprise here. Jestorball traditionally likes to run three deep at point guard, to always have the type of floor general they want running the offense, and with Mantas Kalnietas sent to Sacramento, they're missing that third piece. T.J. Ford is a well-known Jestor favorite, but given that he's 31 years old and this is a weak market, the price is likely to be too steep.

Jamario Moon is almost certain to still be on the roster when the regular season starts
Moon was very close to being traded for another area of need on the Miami Heat, but the other team asked for more than the Heat were willing to give. As a result, the deal appears to be off the table. As one source put it, "It's free agency. You can't fuck around with not knowing what your cap is going to be and this deal would have had a significant impact on our cap space."

Big man is one of the top priorities
There's the whole Luke Nevill situation, the answer to which will determine the entire course of Miami's free agency. Nevill, a fast-rising darling of the Chicago School set, is expected to receive a massive payraise over his rookie contract, and the Heat are still determining if Nevill is their man. Miami did quite well with Carlos Boozer and Aleks Maric last year, but Boozer bombed in the playoffs and Solomon Alabi's summer league inconsistency alarmed the front office. At absolute minimum, another warm body is needed.

Since his return to the block, only one team has asked about Chris Paul
Although some are snidely suggesting the on-again/off-again nature of CP3's trade eligibility is remniscent of the New Jersey Nets' same game with Derrick Rose before they finally dealt him to Indiana, the Heat are said to be seriously contemplating a window reset. Miami showed last year that it didn't have quite enough to reach the championship and with Willie "Wonder" Warren and Maric already the two franchise foundation young players, the Heat can afford to explore all options.

Defensive Specialist, 2nd Round Pick Sent To Timberwolves For Young Forward

Jamario Moon served as the defensive fulcrum in Miami last year, but the Heat were too tempted by another player

It appears Jamario Moon will be leaving Miami after all. After a season in which Moon restored his reputation as one of the league's top defensive players with the Heat, the 32 year old shutdown small forward in on his way to the Minnesota Timberwolves along with the Heat's 2017 2nd round pick for young power forward Darrell Arthur.

"It's very tough to see Jamario go," Miami Heat GM Jestor said at a press conference announcing details of the trade. "He gave us the kind of defensive toughness and intensity we needed there, and was a great help in mentoring Willie Warren on the defensive end. But he also started drawing a lot of attention after the great year he had for us last season, and we simply couldn't resist the opportunity before us."


PF Darrell Arthur's net game greatly impressed the Heat's front office

Rewind to the start of last year's regular season. The Miami Heat, left with Jon Brockman at PF, made the bold move to send a package of expirings to the Phoenix Suns for Carlos Boozer and the Suns' 2016 1st. Although vastly overpaid, Boozer gave Miami a massive upgrade at the PF spot and was the third star in the Heat's three star system.

Now, although the pick is on what Miami's sending, the Heat are adding another overpaid, 6'9 PF. The difference is, this one's 24 year old, and there's a genuine buzz about him in the front office.

"We took a look at our team and we saw that one our biggest weaknesses was on the offensive glass. Other than Carlos, we didn't have anyone who was really effective at giving us the second chance opportunities we needed. We feel like with the new rule changes that Darrell can be that guy for us," Jestor said.

The GM also noted Arthur's career 52.5% shooting rate and 59.4% playoff conversion rate.

"As most of you out there know, we here in Miami value shooting percentage for big men, and proven playoff performances for all our players, so the chance to get a talented young 4 like Darrell was too much to pass up."

Even if it does cost Miami its top defender and slices almost $4 million off their available cap space.

Team officials wouldn't comment on how this trade impacts free agency or the upcoming starting lineup, but it's believed the deal signals the end of Luke Nevill with the Miami Heat, as the Australian star is expected to see money well in excess of the cap space Miami has left.

***

Context Notes
As you all know by now (or should) I have a real weakness for accurate big men shooters, especially in the playoffs. I hated letting Jamario Moon go, but Darrell Arthur was just too great a value.

This also opened up playing time for Darington Hobson and others, which was a major consideration. Most considered us as winning the trade, with Arthur carrying a greater value than Moon. In fact, a lot of guys commented that I overvalued Moon in trade talks, which was probably true.

[Izulde]

Three Bigs In Tough Situations

[i[Yao Ming is not amused with being on the block[/i]

Lost amidst all the hubbub and gossip surrounding such promising young and youngerish free agent bigs Hamed Haddadi, Luke Nevill, and Dwight Howard are three talented veteran big men who have been on the clock for varying amounts of time, all hoping and waiting for a new team where they'll be more appreciated than their current places.

C Yao Ming - Sacramento Kings (34) = 3 years - $17.8 mil, $18.9 mil, $20 mil
First up is Yao Ming, the 7'6 Chinese giant from the chronically underachieving Sacramento Kings. A gifted double-double player, with still legitimate All-Star credentials, textbook shooting accuracy, and some blocking talent, he's been lingering on the Kings' block since Sacramento's playoff visit ended with a four game first round exit. Jackson Ayorinde commented on Ming's situation:

"He's still got the physical ability no question, and he puts up quality regular season numbers. But he's been dogged by perceptions that he collapses under the weight of playoff pressure, and even his sensational play last year when the Kings got swept isn't going to be enough to change the minds of those front offices who value the statistical results more than their scouts. Add to that the fact that he has the most expensive and longest time commitment of any of the three and it's easy to see why he's still out there. But I'm also hearing rumors that the Kings consider him an All-Star worthy player and are making demands that don't come close to his actual market value right now. On the other hand, those teams with space who want to make a playoff push, who need a center, and who miss out on the Big Three in free agency, could potentially be interested."

Verdict
Likely to stay in Sacramento the next two seasons. May have some value in his final season as a big expiring contract, but that's not a guarantee as our next candidate will show. There just doesn't seem to be the right spot out there for him when all the above factors are combined.


PF Elton Brand - Memphis Grizzlies (35) - 1 year - $20.1 mil
Showed even at 34 last season that he's a major scoring force. A bit short at 6'8, but with his 270 lb body, he's like a giant wrecking bashing bodies in the post. The oldest player at 35, he comes with just a one year commitment and has been on the block for well over a season, with no interest. Jackson Ayorinde remarks:

"I'm honestly surprised Brand hasn't been traded. But it's a tough, tough market for veteran big men right now. You've got the Big Three in free agency, and, unfortunately for Memphis and for Brand, Tim Duncan and even Kevin Garnett, proven veterans in their own right, are also there as much cheaper options. Brand also suffers from a dip in playoff performances vs. regular season showings in his career.

Verdict
50/50 to stay or go. Will there be a 6th team out there who misses on the aforementioned five to take on Brand for a one year rental, or, if it's a deadline move, half a year's rental? Brand's value could conceivably increase as the deadline draws near, for financial reasons just as much as his play. The general sense is while Memphis would prefer to trade him, they'll be quite happy to sit and renounce his $20 million for the prodigal cap space in what should be a very rich offseason.


PF Carlos Boozer - Miami Heat (32) - 2 years - $24 mil, $27 mil
The youngest player of the ones profiled here, Boozer's best asset is as a rebounder, which he's exceptional at, although he can also score and convert at a decent rate. Offers the middle length contract of the three, turning into the largest expiring in the entire league next season. Jackson Ayorinde's thoughts:

"Another big man with absolutely no chatter around him. The Heat would be happy to trade him to open up space for Darrell Arthur, who they view as Boozer's heir apparent, the sooner the better, especially if they can get the deal they're looking for when it comes to Chris Paul. Miami's not willing to add pick compensation because the contract is relatively short and, if truth be told, losing Boozer probably also means losing out on the playoffs. He was the player that took the Heat from borderline playoff team to Southeast contender."

Verdict
Likely to stay in Miami. He suffers from the same competition problem that Brand does, so it'd come down to him vs. Brand and he doesn't yet have the older PF's financial value. Then, the season after that, the Heat will be in the same situation the Grizzlies are facing right now with Brand.

Miami Fills Moon Crater With Muoneke

Where exactly Gabe Muoneke fits in the grand Heat scheme is unclear

The Miami Heat, originally expected to be one of the big free agent players, including potentially re-signing Luke Nevill, instead appear to be going for smaller moves to upgrade their depth, such as acquiring Darrell Arthur from the Timberwolves, and, in the latest move, signing Gabe Muoneke to a two year, $4 million contract at a flat $2 million a season.

Muoneke, 34, took the long, hard road to the NLL, through years of Euroleague grinding before finally getting his chance. As a result, he's entering just his fifth season in the league. He's known for his sensational defense, ability to draw fouls, and, interestingly enough, his passing skills. The major drawback is extremely poor shooting percentage, but the Heat believe they can control his shot-taking by surrounding him with multiple scorers.

In short, he's expected to fill the shutdown defender role formerly held by Jamario Moon and will fight Darington Hobson for the starting SF spot.

In financial terms, Muoneke's new deal is the short-term, low-risk contract that epitomizes the Heat's approach to free agency, and its expiration coincides with that of Carlos Boozer's massive contract.

Free Agent Fights Erupting, Trade Chatter Brewing

Baron Davis has found himself the subject of a free agency war

A day after he announced a slight drop in his demands, Baron Davis received a more lucrative offer than the one year, almost $5.7 million deal he had in hand from the Miami Heat. That richer contract proposal came from the Los Angeles Clippers, who have posted a one year, $6.3 million offer, although all sides remain a little over $2 million apart.

Davis, 35, is known throughout the league as the player most often spammed on trade blocks by the Houston Rockets, but the low-risk signing, high shooting accuracy, quality passing, and excellent intangibles appealed to the Heat, who are rumored to be uncertain about bringing Jarrett Jack back to reprise his role.

The news of being upstaged was but a minor annoyance for the Heat, however, compared to the rage that ripped through the front office when it was discovered that the Charlotte Bobcats had offered the same two year min-sal deal to Henk Norel that Miami extended.

An anonymous source in the Heat organization reported GM Jestor's fury at the Southeast rival's offer.

"He threw a plastic ashtray against the wall and screamed, 'How dare those (expletive) cut in on Norel! I'm the one who found him, I'm the one who made him! I swear to (expletive) (expletive) God, I will skin the (expletive) out of those Bobcats for trying to shark us!"

Rumor has it there may be a re-arrangement of the Heat's strategy, based on the recent change in events.

Trade Rumors
Chris Paul continues to draw very little interest, so little that Miami will likely just keep him until the trade deadline. The only thing that appears certain is that there is almost zero chance of CP3 being dealt within the division. Reports say the franchise star was offered to a pair of West conference teams, but rejected by both.

In fact, Carlos Boozer has been drawing more interest than Paul. For teams who can afford to wait two years, the multiple time All-Star is an attractive option for an immediate talent upgrade, similar to what he brought the Heat last season.

After initial heavy offseason interest in Solomon Alabi, no teams have come calling, as they prefer to chase players in the free agent market.

Thus, another trade on top of the Jamario Moon/Darrell Arthur deal appears unlikely at the moment.

***

Context Notes

As I may have mentioned before, I'm hyper-conscious of my team's financial situation at all times in MP leagues, and do my best to try and line up contracts so they expire at the same time. I also usually prefer the mid-price or bargain pickup to the big bucks signing.

Another thing I pride myself on is discovering guys, so to see Henk Norel potentially getting swiped by a division rival irritated the hell out of me. That said, it's part of the game and I've done that to people myself.

[Izulde]

American, Serbian, Two Nigerians Hoping To Represent Team

Aleks Maric is a virtual lock to represent Serbia in the rumored World Championships

Rumors of FIBA restoring the World Championships electrified the Heat offices, which immediately began a campaign for several of its players to represent various birth countries. Due to the experience limit imposed by US officials, Chris Paul and Carlos Boozer are not among the candidates for selection.

Miami does have an American they plan on trying to get in, however, along with two other countries.

Team USA - Willie Warren
The University of Oklahoma alum and Dallas, TX native made the All-Rookie team in his first season and has made considerable strides in his game after just one year. He's expected to become one of the NLL's future stars and there's already a groundswell of support for his inclusion on the squad.

Team Serbia - Aleks Maric
Although technically eligible for Team Australia and Team USA as well, Maric is Serbian by ancestry and would immediately become one of Serbia's biggest stars, as well giving his forefathers' homeland an opportunity to make nose in the FIBA tournament. He also avoids a crowded big man situation in Australia with Luke Nevill and Andrew Bogut, and believes that the more strong teams in the tournament, the better.

Team Nigeria - Gabe Muoneke and Solomon Alabi
Although Nigeria isn't traditionally thought of as a basketball power, the African nation has a growing number of players in the NLL, including promising young big man Solomon Alabi and recently signed Gabe Muoneke on the Miami Heat. Sources say Miami will make a strong push for Nigeria to be included in the World Championships.

USA. Serbia. Nigeria. Three nations Miami Heat fans will turn in for, should all these selections go through.

Heat GM and Coach Could Be Tapped For Nigeria

Miami's Gabe Muoneke is located far right as his Nigerian teammate goes up for a dunk

Miami Heat GM Jestor declared his support for the three year and under rule for Team USA athletes in the FIBA World Championships and proposed a solution to those who would be ineligible.

"The way I see it, we can have the World Championships for the next three years and then every fourth year, we'll have the Olympics, where there will be no restrictions on Team USA players," the GM said. "Lebron James has already indicated he views the Olympics as more important, and when I talked to Chris Paul today, he said the same thing."

"This will give the Olympics the gravitas and importance it richly deserves, and in that fourth year, we simply won't have the FIBA World Championships, because the Olympics will take their place."

Chris Paul also spoke to reporters, confirming his general manager's comments.

"The way I see it, the World Championships should be the young guys' chance to shine. I'd rather Willie (Warren) go and represent Team USA and I'll get my chance in the Olympics a few years down the road, because I still plan on being one of the top players in the world by the time it rolls around," Paul said.

In related news, rumor is hot that if NLL general managers and coaches are allowed to run the national teams at the World Championships, Jestor and new Heat head coach Nate McMillan, along with the rest of Miami's coaching staff, will head up Team Nigeria, where Heat players Gabe Muoneke and Solomon Alabi figure to compete for starting spots.

Originally the Miami delegation wanted to head up Team Serbia, where star Aleks Maric applied for, but FIBA ruled Maric ineligible for the Serbian national team due to having played for Australia's U-19 national team a few years ago. Jestor said he strongly preferred Team Australia to be headed by one of the many Australian general managers in the league, just as Spanish native Manu Martinez of the Chicago Bulls will take charge of Team Spain.

Ancestry Rule Invoked For Some Players

Al-Farouq Aminu is Nigerian eligible, argues the delegation

Team Nigeria moved quickly to announce NLL players it was claiming for its national team, based on an in-depth scouring of players in the league. Some are native born Nigerians, others are either born to Nigerian parents or have Nigerian lineage.

The players claimed:

SG Kelenna Azubuike - Free Agent
One of many born to Nigerian parents. Although born in Britain with an expressed interest in playing for the UK, he was denied British citizenship under the 1981 British Nationality Act. A much-needed guard for a weak backcourt.

SF Gabe Muoneke - Miami Heat
Nigerian born, he figures to battle another claimant for the starting SF spot, but if Nigeria proves weak at the guard spots, his passing ability could see him at SG instead.

SF Al-Farouq Aminu - New Jersey Nets
Born in America, but sources at Wake Forest noted "is parents are Aboubakar Aminu and Anjirlic Aminu. A descendant from a line of Nigerian kings, his name Al-Farouq means "the chief has arrived." Team Nigeria is arguing the young, rising New Jersey Net is Nigeria eligible based on that.

SF Andre Iguodala - Free Agent
Father is Nigerian and the veteran would be a major boost to Nigeria's perimeter game, possibly even starting.

SF Ndudi Ebi - Free Agent
Defensive specialist holds both Nigerian and British citizenship, but was raised in Nigeria. Could be a point of contention between Nigeria and Britain, but Team Nigeria admitted they would, "probably let Ebi go to the British team to have a stronger competitive balance in the tournament" if the other three small forwards on their application were accepted.

PF/C Ike Diogu - Atlanta Hawks
Born in America, but parents are Nigerian immigrants. Has never played for the American national team. Could be a starter in what is apparently a promising Nigerian front line.

PF/C Ekpe Udoh - New Orleans Hornets
Like Diogu, Udoh's parents are Nigerian. Has the potential to develop as a shutdown defender, but isn't there yet. As this roster is configured, a reserve.

PF/C Emeka Okafor - Philadelphia 76ers
As with Diogu and Udoh, born to Nigerian parents. In fact, Emeka was the first member of his family to be born in the United States. Also launched the African Iniative to Save Lives. Would be a surefire starter, likely at PF.

C Solomon Alabi - Miami Heat
Nigerian born and one of the contenders to start at the center spot alongside Diogu, who currently projects to occupy the PF spot. Developing young rebounder, defender, and shotblocker.

Analysis
Assuming all applications are granted, even without Ebi, this is a strong defensive and rebounding team. The problems are equally obvious - a lack of a true scoring threat and absolutely no point guards. Regardless, there should be enough talent on the roster to contend for advancement to knockout round, if they can avoid a Pool of Death.

***

Context Notes

One of the coolest things about DDS MP leagues is the wide variety of nations represented amongst its GMs. It really allows for a fun kind of nationalism to come into play when trying to acquire players or, in the case of FIBA Championships being done here, jockeying for national teams.

As it turns out, the IRL selection rules for national teams is more complicated than first appears here. As per mgtr81:

As far as I know only one nationalized player can be part of the team. We have had this issue with this year's team for the Eurobasket. We had two nationalized players (guys not born in the country but who got the nationality) in Serge Ibaka and Nikola Mirotic, and the Spanish Federation had to choose only one for the Tournament, as that is the FIBA rule.

So, pretty cool.

[Izulde]

Government Celebrates Okafor Decision, Capturing Heat Brass

Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan at the press conference announcing the national basketball team

Nigeria, Africa's most populous country with the 8th most people in the world, is a nation long divided by tribal and religious affiliations. It is also one of the world's fastest growing economies and is starting to stabilize on the political scene after the 2011 election was declared legitimate by international observers.

But it is also starting to develop as a nation worth watching on the world sports team. The Nigerian national soccer team, the Super Eagles, won the gold medal at the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta and made the World Cup in 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2010. FIFA currently rates Nigeria the top soccer country in Africa and #21 in the world.

Although outshone by the Super Eagles, the as of yet unnamed national basketball team is also starting to make waves, with numerous NLL players announcing their intention to play for Nigeria, most notably Philadelphia 76ers big man Emeka Okafor, who has chosen to affiliate with his ancestral homeland, and the birthplace of his parents. Okafor, who launched the African Initiative To Save Lives in 2006, has always held a deep interest in the home continent of his ancestors.


Emeka Okafor has been active in promoting HIV/AIDS research and advocacy

"It is important for we African-Americans to maintain and develop awareness of, appreciation for, and love of Mother Africa," Okafor said at the press conference announcing his decision. "My mother and father are Igbo people, and I, as a descendant of the Igbo, want to represent my tribe's country in the World Championships, and, God willing, in the Olympics in four years' time."

Okafor figures to be the star player on what is rapidly becoming arguably the most intriguing African side at the World Championships, playing alongside Solomon Alabi, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Gabe Muoneke, among other NLL players.

The increased success of the national soccer and basketball teams has served as a rallying point for Nigeria, uniting Christians and Muslims, the nation's two dominant religious groups, and the country's more than 250 ethnic groups and tribes, dominated by the Hausa, Yoruba, and Igbo, the three cultures that together make up approximately 68% of Nigeria's population.

Nigerian president Jonathan Goodluck credits much of the building excitement over the basketball team and the coup in landing Okafor to Miami Heat GM Jestor.

"Without the support of the Miami Heat and General Manager Jestor, we would not have nearly so strong a team to represent Nigeria at these world championships," Jonathan said.


Miami Heat GM Jestor and President Jonathan have similar names, hats, and color choices

Indeed, FIBA observers say that the reason Nigeria landed so many NLL players was because of Jestor and his team of legal researchers, headed by Andrea Garcia, worked round the clock to find all possible players who might be Nigeria-eligible and then proceeded to argue stridently and emphatically for elimination of the One Ancestor rule, in favor of making the World Championships much more diverse and interesting to watch. Jestor also spearheaded the campaign to restore basketball as an Olympic support and succeeded in that endeavor as well.

But left unsaid are the numerous links between Jestor and Nigeria. While the presence of Alabi and Muoneke, members of the Miami Heat, on the Nigerian national team, has been well-publicized, there are also other connections between GM and country.

Those connections, perhaps unsurprisingly, stem from Jestor's affiliation with UNLV, the Las Vegas university that in the years before the GM's arrival, had Nobel Prize for Literature winner and Nigerian native Wole Soyinka on its creative writing faculty, and currently hosts Nigerian Jesuit priest and writer Uwem Akpan. Akpan is the author of Say You're One of Them, a group of short stories that won the Commonwealth Writers Prize and was named to Oprah Winfrey's Book Club.*

The Nigerian national team will meet in Lagos in a few days' time to begin practicing and sorting out the starting lineup, which is largely in flux with the exception of Okafor.

* - Just as a side note, getting named to Oprah's Book Club in the United States is huge. Not from a critical acclaim standpoint or anything like that, but in terms of sales. Getting named to her book club almost guarantees your book will sell a ton of copies.

Conroy Cashes In Big On Two Year Deal

League observers were surprised to see Will Conroy get a significant payday

The Miami Heat surprised the league when they signed former Oklahoma City Thunder guard Will Conroy to a two year, $7 million contract worth a flat rate of $3.5 million a season. Conroy, 28, was originally drafted by the Heat in 2011, taken 46th overall (16th pick in the round), then traded along with Dante Cunningham to the then-Seattle Sonics for Darius Washington.

Now the Washington Husky alum is coming back to the team that drafted him, with new management in place. Although largely untested in the NLL, with just 8 pro games to his credit, the Heat were attracted to his 48% shooting, 75% from 3 point range, and 100% free throw shooting in that sample size. He also delivered in the D-League, where he shot 51%, 34.5% from long range, 82.3% from the charity stripe and a respectable 2.9 A/TO ratio.

One scout remarked, "I'm surprised he got that kind of money, because he doesn't have the natural scoring instinct you look for in a combo guard of his type. But on the other hand, he does have some defense, stealing, and passing ability, and he's shown shooting accuracy in limited sample size, including 66.7% in a 3 minute playoff appearance with Oklahoma City last year. Conroy's also a smart player and what this signing tells me is that Miami is afraid Marcus Banks will decline sooner rather than later, so they snapped up someone who can fill the Banks role right away."

The two year contract is also line with that signed by Gabe Muoneke earlier in free agency and matches the appointed expiring of Banks and Carlos Boozer.

Miami Fans Furious At Norel's Departure

Miami Heat fans rioted after finding out Henk Norel signed with the Atlanta Hawks

Partisan fanatics loyal to Miami Heat GM Jestor rioted in South Beach today after Dutch national Henk Norel unexpectedly signed with Southeast foe Atlanta Hawks for 2 years and $4.43 million. Although not rival Charlotte or archrival Orlando, Miami fans nonetheless took exception to Norel's decision.

"He's a damned traitor," cried one ringleader who burned Norel's Heat jersey at the head of a screaming, bloodthirsty mob. "If it wasn't for Jestor, that (expletive) Dutchie would be sucking min-sal (expletive)! Our GM discovered him and he stabs us in the back like this!"

Despite not being concerned about money and believed to be loyal, Norel nonetheless couldn't turn the opportunity to make in 2 years what the Miami Heat were offering in 5. He was also expected to see far more playing team for the rebuilding Hawks than he would have in Miami after the Heat traded for Darrell Arthur.

Jestor declined comment, although sources say he was "bitterly disappointed" about Norel's decision, even as he understood it.

Jack Returns, Biedrins To Fill Third String Role

Jarrett Jack mulled over a couple offers in free agency

The Miami Heat said all along that two of their priorities this free agency were to re-sign Henk Norel and Jarrett Jack. Norel took the big bucks and guaranteed quality minutes from the Atlanta Hawks, leaving South Beach and GM Jestor to sweat it out over Jack, one of the key cogs of the bench after coming over from the New Jersey Nets for the Heats 2015 2nd round pick.

After weighing the pros and cons between the Miami Heat and the Charlotte Bobcats, the competing Southeast foes who both offered maximum min-sal deals, Jack opted to re-up with the Heat.

"This is a really passionate group of fans and I love this organization," Jack said. "I also wanted the stability I had at the beginning of the NLL, when I played three seasons with the Utah Jazz (2005-2007). I've bounced around this league a lot since then and I finally feel like I have that place where I can permanently set my roots down."

Since that 2007 season, Jack has played for the Wizards (2008, 2009), Bulls (2009), Hawks (2009), Bulls (2010), Jazz (2010), Magic (2010), Hawks (2011, 2012) Nets (2012, 2013) and Heat (2013). He's been traded five times since April 12th, 2009, when he was sent from Washington to Atlanta for Brandon Rush.

A career reserve whose high point came in 2008 with the Wizards when he played all 82 games and started 19, Jack's been largely left in the dustbin since 2010, when he appeared in 61 games for the Magic and Jazz and averaged substantial minutes for both squads. It wasn't until Jestor uncovered him and dealt for the veteran that the bald-headed alliteratively-named guard once again gained prominence, appearing in 46 games and shooting 48.9%, 40% from 3 point range. He did even better in the playoffs, hitting 54.2% of his shots.

Jack projects to be the top backup SG to Willie "Wonder" Warren just as he did last season. He'll also continue to serve as a mentor to Warren and will likely add Darington Hobson to his coterie of tutored players.


Andris Biedrins practicing the handling skills demanded of the Jestorball system

After striking out on Norel and being denied by Brian Zoubek, who saw more playing time opportunity with the Raptors than the Heat, Miami recovered by landing veteran 7 foot, 244 lb Andris Biedrins. Although 28 years old, Biedrins is entering his 10th year in the league. Famous for receiving a 6 year, $66.4 million contract from the Seattle Sonics in 2008 and spent 3 and a part seasons there, before being traded to Atlanta in the year that saw the Sonics move to Oklahoma City and become the Thunder.

Last season, he signed a minimum salary deal with the Sacramento Kings before the year began and showed quality all-around ability, including respectable handling for a big man.

This year, he signed a 2 year, $4.4 million contract with the Heat with a team option for the second year. He'll be the third string big man at both PF and C and is the sort of jack of all trades, master of none, that typifies the glue guy mentality.

As one anonymous league observer put it, "Realistically, he's only there a year and they decline his option next season, just like all the other loophole contracts we've seen this offseason. But he's a pickup they absolutely had to make, given how shallow their big man stocks were. It's just too bad they gave Conroy all that money. Then they could have pursued Fran Vazquez, who would be a better fit."

23 Year Old To Add Scoring Depth, Free Throw Accuracy

Underrated - Jodie Meeks' sensational free throw form

The Miami Heat officially announced their exit from free agency with the signing of 23 year old Jodie Meeks to a 2 year max min-salary deal with a player option for the second year. Meeks is known for his scorer's instinct and his absolutely sensational free throw shooting form that's allowed him a 98.8% career conversion from the charity stripe. He's also shot 45.7% from the floor in his three year NLL career, most with the Memphis Grizzlies.

"We don't have anybody who can hit their free throw shots nearly as well as Jodie," new Heat head coach Nate McMillian said. "It's a vastly underrated skill. Of course, he needs to work on drawing fouls better, but I and the rest of the staff will help him with that, and hopefully he can help Darington Hobson and some of the other young guys improve their free throw stroke."

Meeks' scoring talent is also deemed critical for limiting shot attempts of poor shooters, such as Gabe Muoneke. He'll start off as the third string shooting guard, behind Willie "Wonder" Warren and Jarrett Jack.

McMillian also said Meeks might become Jack's heir apparent.

"He's a young guy who's already done some good things in the league. We're really looking forward to seeing what he does here and if Jack ends up taking more of a mentor role, or decides to retire, we'll have Jodie right there to step in."

***

Context Notes
Team Nigeria ended up going 2-4 in pool play and missing the medal round. Frankly, if it wasn't for me busting ass, it was a winless looking team. A few pro players, but nobody who could really score the ball, so we had to rely on defense.

Funny thing was, I heard Wole Soyinka speak this past spring when he came to campus. I was going to talk to him about Nigerian's sports teams like the Super Eagles (soccer) and what impact that'd had on the nation, but didn't get a chance to.

Anyway, with the Meeks signing, we were done with FA and ready to start up the season. That Conroy one, though... that was all about statistics, much like the Henk Norel signing the year before, traitorous bastard though the Dutchman was.

[Izulde]

South Beach Never Short on Drama Under Jestor

Chris Paul made a statement in Game 1

Despite a 51 win season, a first round sweep of the 76ers, and a solid showing against the Detroit Pistons, few analysts have shown respect to the Miami Heat in preseason polling, rating them third and fourth in the Southeast, and, in one power poll, a distant 14th out of 30 teams. All this despite widely acknowledged as having greatly improved the admittedly shallow depth of a season before.

And that's without even getting into the continuation of the drama surrounding franchise face Chris Paul.

Just how good is this Miami team? That's an answer as enigmatic as the league's most media friendly general manager, who looked surprisingly detached as his Team Nigeria went 2-3 in the FIBA World Championships, leading some to speculate that Jestor might yet again be getting wary.

But team officials reported the head of the Heat was back in Miami today, looking more refreshed than he did in China, and an energized Jestor means good things, for the Heat and for the league.

Point Guards
Chris Paul
CP3 played brilliantly in the first game of the season, a 126-106 win, putting up 21 points, 18 assists, and 0 turnovers. As one reporter wrote, "That performance was about Chris Paul telling Jestor that he's the one to run the Jestorball offense and nobody else." Rumor has it that one team told Miami "Name your price" for the most important trade of Jestor's Heat career, but if he continues putting up performances like that, CP3 will receive the max in the offseason and finally have career stability.

Willie Warren
The other half of last season's Wonderpaul backcourt, Warren unexpectedly came off the bench in Game 1 and had a bad shooting performance of 4 for 13. The second year player said after the game that he had "no problem being the 6th man if that's what helps us win, as long as I get my PT." The move suggests that the team perhaps isn't as comfortable to give him the starting point guard spot as originally believed and that he needs more development before he's ready to take on the starting role again.

Will Conroy
Expected to become the top backup PG, he finds himself temporarily in the third string position after the Heat's surprising Game 1 lineup. The best passer on the roster not named CP3, the 28 year old, who got a lucrative 2 year, $7 million contract in the offseason, will continue fighting for minutes and an opportunity to prove himself.

Jarrett Jack
All the hand-wringing and obsession over finding a player to fill the Jack role turned into the Heat re-signing him to get his old spot back... and now he finds himself in a crowded backcourt. It's a mark of just how much the Heat have improved that last year's lone bench scoring threat is now buried behind others.

Marcus Banks
Former UNLV star and top backup PG is currently on the inactive list. The 33 year old is excellent insurance in case of injury, but Miami has simply become too deep at the 1 to give him many minutes. Regardless, the front office intend on keeping him in South Beach for the rest of his career.


The surprise Game 1 SG starter

Shooting Guards
Jodie Meeks
The biggest surprise of the opening game was Meeks' start. Although he chucked it (7/18 - 38.9%), the 23 year old min-sal signing showed excellent scoring instincts and synergy with Paul. Most notably, he was flawless from the free throw line, just as the Heat hoped (4/4). Sources say this was new head coach Nate McMillan's decision, as the front office decided to give him carte blanche for the first game. No word on whether Meeks will stay the starter, but it's worth noting he wowed both the coaching staff and the front office with a far better than expected preseason.


Rookie Darington Hobson points out he's the starting SF

Small Forwards
Darington Hobson
Chicago School teams absolutely love the University of New Mexico rookie and that includes the Heat, who called Hobson, "the only Jestorball worthy player in this draft". Although speculation said Hobson would serve as the super 6th man, there he was in the starting lineup against the Nets, posting a very solid 4/9 for 14 points and 8 rebounds. Given the Heat's depth at the guard spots, it's likely Hobson will continue to start at the 3, as so many GMs clamored for in the offseason.

Tasmin Mitchell
One of the GM's favorite players on the entire roster, Mitchell was 4/4 for 8 points and 2 steals in the season opener. Taken 55th overall in the Warren draft, the second year swingman is an underrated defender who plays with tenacity and is a glue player who continues to hold down the top backup SF spot.

Gabe Muoneke
Turns out all the noise about Muoneke reprising Jamario Moon's role as a starter was all talk. In fact, Muoneke, who was named to the Nigerian national team, was on the inactive list. One Heat observer added, "He'll stay that way barring injury. Hobson's locked down that SF spot and they love Mitchell, who they know". Muoneke didn't help his cause with the worst preseason of any player on the Heat. Still, his passing and defense makes him an attractive roll of the dice, should injury occur or he's shopped for trade bait.


Carlos Boozer isn't afraid to shout down former Heat Pau Gasol

Power Forwards
Carlos Boozer
Even though he's overpaid, Boozer is still an extremely talented player and held his own against Nets superstar Blake Griffin in the opener, with 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 steals on 8/11 shooting. He may be 33 years old, but he's effective and still Miami's third star in the three star Jestorball system. Although he's been rumored to be on the block, but the Heat's refusal to add compensation for his contract is an obstacle to any moves.

Darrell Arthur
Despite a disappointing 2 for 5 Heat debut, the 24 year old impressed on the defensive playmaking end with 3 blocks and 2 steals in 19 minutes. Considered Boozer's heir apparent, he's also far better injury insurance than Henk Norel was last season, fans' upset over Norel's defecting to Atlanta aside. Still has some upside to fill and has a number of fans around the league.

Andris Biedrins
Third stringer at both PF and C, the 28 year old is a likely one season rental, but he's a reasonable depth to have and far better than last year, where Miami had no one worthy of note at the spot.


Aleks Maric - completely untouchable

Center
Aleks Maric
There were some private worries in South Florida this offseason after Maric struggled in the FIBA tournament and shouldered most of the blame for Australia's disappointing performance. But all those concerns were washed away in the opener as Maric hit 11 of 15 for 28 points and 10 rebounds. Although there are still conversations among league officials and GMs over new extension rules, one thing is clear - Maric will be extended in season and taken off the free agent market.

Solomon Alabi
Although there was some discussion over Alabi as Boozer's heir apparent, those talks ended once Miami got Arthur. Played just one minute in the opener, but is certain to see more playing time, as the Heat have strict playing time rules for their starters in order to keep them fresh and prevent injuries. Remarkable free throw shooting for a big man.

Synopsis
Despite the relatively low rankings in preseason polling, there seems to be unanimous consensus that the Heat will be back in the playoffs this season, unless CP3 and Boozer get traded. The drama over the two Heat stars may well continue, or Miami might play well enough to establish themselves as legitimate contenders.

In any case, it promises to be another exciting season.

Team Insiders Say Shakeup Possibly Coming

One of Miami's three stars could be leaving

Miami Heat officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said GM Jestor is in talks to possibly ship out one of the team's triumvirate that make up the so-called Three Star System, which would mean either Chris Paul, Carlos Boozer, or Aleks Maric.

The sources stressed that the deal is not imminent, as the offer involving the star player has merely been floated, and is awaiting response from the other team.

0-4 Start Last Season Changed To 3-2 This Year

Miami Heat star Aleks Maric visited the Spanish city of Granada on his GM's recommendation this offseason

Last year, an 0-4 start sparked rumors of Chris Paul on the trade block. This season, a 3-2 beginning has the front office calm, but that still hasn't stopped the trade discussion from swirling around the Miami Heat's headquarters.

Early Stars
C Aleks Maric - 22.8 PPG 9.6 RPG 1.4 BPG
Also shooting 62.6%, GM Jestor's most loved player on the team is averaging a career-high 34.6 minutes a game, 0.2 minutes more than his rookie season with the Rockets. The Heat have been emphatic that Maric is the most untouchable player on the roster and firm in their plans to sign him to an extension as soon as possible.

PG Chris Paul - 20.0 PPG 9.2 APG 9.2 A/TO
Yes, you're reading that correctly. CP3 has 9.2 assists for every turnover. The 29 year old is also shooting 40% from 3 point range. There have been a lot of rumors about the franchise player's trade status, but the simple fact of the matter is, as long as Carlos Boozer is on this team, Paul is going nowhere. Oh, and there's also the 97.5% drive stop rate.

SF Darington Hobson - 14.8 PPG 5.4 RPG 4.0 APG
The first round rookie has been a refreshing change of pace in the 3 spot, shooting 50% and showing the kind of quality all-around game Jestorball generally asks of its small forwards. In fact, the former Lobo might see himself moving up to the untouchable list sooner rather than later.

Disappointments
SG Jodie Meeks
Miami's surprise preseason star has flamed out in the starting lineup, shooting 32.8% and drawing the ire of first year coach Nate McMillan. Include the ghastly 31% drive stop rate and it's clear he's going to be demoted to the bench.

G Willie "Wonder" Warren
Warren's stopped 90.9% of drives faced, but he's shooting a disappointing 38.1%, 16% from 3 point range. That poor performance, and a mood in Miami to make moves, has landed the second year player on the trading block.

Lineup changes are no doubt in store for the Heat, who don't play again until November 15th, when they host the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

Trade Rumors
When speculation broke out over one of the Heat's big three stars possibly on the way out, the consensus was overwhelmingly in favor of Carlos Boozer (13 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 50.9%) as the one due to change uniforms.

Sources now say that Boozer was indeed the one in trade talks, but said that the other team was "leery of making such a big move so early in the season." The insiders also commented that Solomon Alabi was close to a virtual lock to go by Day 90 at the latest, saying, "He's a player another team loves, and another team has a player we love." They stopped short of saying there was a verbal agreement, however.

Yet, Alabi would already be gone if it wasn't for the fact that Miami is hamstrung by multiple trade restricted players, making salary matching difficult. But when Day 90 comes, all of the Heat's free agent signings will become available for salary matches.

As of right now, Willie Warren and Boozer are the biggest names on the Heat's trade block, and while Alabi is officially listed, team staffers say they considered the Florida State alum essentially earmarked for the other team.

***

Context Notes
As a statistics-based GM in MP leagues, I have a bad tendency to get suckered in by great preseason/summer league numbers. Case in point: Jodie Meeks. Granted, it was a cheap contract, but still it was a roster spot that could have gone to someone else.

I was wrong about Team Nigeria's 2-4 mark. It was 2-3. Still far better than what most people expected, picking us last in our group from what I remember. If only we could have gotten a perimeter scorer...

I'd forgotten how stacked the Heat were at PG heading into this season. Granted, only CP3 and Wonder Warren were legit starters, what with Jack being a 6th man combo guard (a role that seems to be happening with increasing frequency in my MP league teams, particularly with the advent of DDS 3), and Banks strictly a capable reserve, but it was nonetheless impressive.

Then again, that shouldn't be a shock. I place a premium at the 1 and 5, as I imagine most GMs do, given that they're the most difficult positions to fill.

[Izulde]

Fate Of Two Stars, Heat Linked

Carlos Boozer contemplates a life outside Miami

There's been a lot of chatter over the last few years about Chris Paul's eventual future or not with the Miami Heat, and lately, because of those CP3 rumors rumbling again, Carlos Boozer's name has come up repeatedly in trade conversations. This makes sense, of course. The Heat have repeatedly insisted that Paul will "under no conditions" be dealt until Boozer is.

Thus far, C-Booze has been linked to two possible destinations. One team was said to be considering it, but ultimately decided they didn't want to make a move yet. The second team, sources say, was "very close" to agreeing to the deal, but chose to stand pat after further contemplation.

So what is it about this $24 million man that has teams both intrigued and uncertain? Most will cite his large contract, but that's only for two seasons and turns into a dizzying, almost obscene $27.3 million contract expiring next season. That situation is in and of itself both an attraction and a repulsion for a lot of teams.

What is 100% attraction is Boozer's on the court play. Even this early in the season, he's shown no signs of aging, posting 13.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 1.2 steals on 52.3% shooting. As one scout put it, "He's still a legitimate third option on a quality team like the Heat, and his rebounding is still excellent. Great intangibles, too. On a middling team, he's a terrific #2 option who crashes the boards."

That latter categorization is perhaps why Boozer has been most frequently rumored to be headed back to the West, still considered the overall weaker conference, where the PF could likely have a greater impact on a team's standings and more bang for the buyer's back.

But so far, despite two high chatter destinations, one coming extremely close to turning a reality, Boozer remains a Miami Heat and in the starting lineup. His presence in South Beach has thus far blocked Solomon Alabi's exit from South Florida and prevented from discussions about Paul.

Jackson Ayorinde, NLL observer specializing in the Miami Heat, noted that, "If Boozer gets traded, the league will see a media frenzy unlike ever before when CP3 is put up on the block. You'll see teams fighting for the right to get one of the top players in the league and command the driver's seat in free agency. It will be simply spectacular."

Ayorinde also said that if Boozer isn't dealt, the Heat will simply hang on to Paul and sign him to a max deal in free agency, keeping him in Miami for the rest of his career.

"Basically, Miami's in a position where they can realistically choose to go all-in this season or next, or they can blow it up and rebuild around Aleks Maric, Willie Warren, and Darington Hobson."

Such flexibility might also explain why Warren paradoxically finds himself on the block beside Boozer, as Miami explores which direction it wants to go in. Thus far, the University of Oklahoma alum has received no interest.

Wonder Losing Luster For League?

It's been a confounding season for Willie "Wonder" Warren in Miami

It seems years ago that Oklahoma star Willie Warren was all the rage for teams in the late lottery. Miami, Denver, and Orlando were three of the confirmed teams repeatedly trying to trade up to select him before he finally fell to the Heat at pick #14. It was considered a triumph for South Florida, Warren the presumed, eventual heir at shooting guard to Daequan Cook, maybe even as soon as that season.

And it happened. The Sooner soon wowed Eric Musselman and the rest of the coaching staff, capturing the starting spot on Opening Night. He went on to average 13.3 points on 45.8% shooting, 32.8% from 3 point range, along with 1.1 steals. In the postseason, he averaged 11.4 points on 43.8% shooting, including an astounding 40% from long range, along with 4 assists and 1.1 steals, while only turning the ball over 1.7 times a game.

The success of the Wonderpaul backcourt was so great, and Warren's initial intriguing flashes at running the point so tantalizing, that the Chris Paul trade rumors flared up in the offseason again, continuing to quietly persist to this day.

But then Jodie Meeks arrived via free agency and had a firecracker of a preseason to win the starting shooting guard spot, with the Heat planning to use Warren as a multipurpose combo guard 6th man. Meeks fell out of favor very quickly and was supplanted by a highly lauded rookie (sound familiar?), first round pick Darington "Hobgoblin" Hobson, the New Mexico Lobo whose passing, handling, and size all made him, in the words of Heat GM Jestor, "the only player in our pick range capable of playing Jestorball."

In fact, Miami made the move for Hobson it didn't with Warren, trading point guard Mantas Kalnietas to the Sacramento Kings for the right to move up one spot in the draft and secure their lone target's services.

Miami Heat beat reporter and NLL observer Jackson Ayorinde said the outcome was a consequence of the war between Classic Jestorians and CP3ians in the front office.

"Essentially what happened was, Darrell Arthur comes over in that trade with Minnesota and both factions absolutely fall in love with him. They're eager to see him in the starting lineup, but Carlos Boozer blocks his path, so after Meeks flamed out, the Classic Jestorians talk the head coach into moving Arthur to small forward and slide Hobson to shooting guard.

The CP3ians, of course, are at first freaking out about this, saying the team doesn't have the depth at frontcourt to be safe with the change, but the Classic faction comes back and says, 'Look, here's the opportunity to start Arthur like we wanted, and Andris Biedrins has been complaining about his lack of playing time. This solves both problems, so let's do it'. So the CP3ians agreed and the Classic Jestorians have now assumed control of the front office again."

Since making the switch, the Heat are 7-1 and riding a five game winning streak that includes victories over Orlando and Washington, the latter coming despite injuries to Hobson and Boozer, the former forced to the inactive list with back spasms.

So where has all of this left Warren? He got his first official start of the season, but played just 15 minutes, going 3/6 for 8 points, 3 assists, and a steal. First year head coach Nate McMillan saw an opportunity to exploit Warren's fellow second year player, ironically the very player picked before him, James Anderson, by sending Jarrett Jack out for the majority of minutes. Jack went on to connect on 6 of 14 shots for 16 points, 6 assists, and 3 steals while holding Anderson to an abysmal 3 for 11 night.

It's emblematic of the situation Warren and the Heat find themselves. Miami loaded up on guards in the free agency period and have had trouble locating minutes for them all. The front office considers Jack one of the most valuable reserves and after tonight's performance, McMillan might well give him the opportunity to start until Hobson returns.

And what of Warren's glowing, wondrous even reputation around the league? Tarnished, it seems. Reports say Miami dangled him to at least two separate teams, who both replied that they were looking for a traditional, pass-first point guard, ironically enough the ideal in the Jestorball system. The second team did say they would consider a three way if that third team wanted Warren and was willing to pay the unnamed second team what they wanted.

"If the Heat keep doing what they're doing, look for Warren to get traded near the deadline so Miami can make a push this season," Ayorinde said. "You can argue with 7-1 and say they had weak competition, like playing Atlanta twice and getting home draws against Orlando and Washington, but the fact is, they're 10-4 right now after a bad start and just three games back of Charlotte."

But will he? He still has superlative handling potential and has the goods to be a starter right now and has dazzling scoring potential. He also shows great promise to still be a superb two-way player, is just 21, and only in his second season.

But so far, it appears Willie Warren has lost his wonder and become a largely forgotten man.

Jack of All Pauls Backcourt Steals 10

Jarrett Jack is back to his old form

Last year, it was Miami's Wonderpaul backcourt that drew rave reviews. Last night, the Jack of All Pauls guard set made a special debut in New Jersey. Chris Paul was his usual CP3 self, hitting 11/24 for 25 points, 9 assists, 5 steals, and 0 turnovers. But the real story was his other half. Jarrett Jack, making his first ever start in a Miami uniform, connected on 6/9 for 13 points, 4 assists, a matching 5 steals, and just one turnover. That meant together the Heat's starting guards racked up 10 steals, more than every single team's average except the Utah Jazz (11.3). Miami finished with 14 steals and 23 turnovers forced to just 5 surrendered, giving them 10.6 turnovers a game, good for their usual first in the league, 1.5 less than their Southeast foes, the Charlotte Bobcats.

As for Jack, now shooting 54.9% for the season, 57.1% from 3 point range, and 90% from the free throw line, it was all in a day's work. "This is what I do, man. This is the system I flourish in and this is why I came back to Miami rather than go to Charlotte," he said after the game.

And yet, initially Jack struggled to find minutes in the Heat's suddenly heavy backcourt. But a breakout performance against the Washington Wizards, in which he torched them for 16 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, and 3 steals while holding the heralded James Anderson to 3 for 11, combined with pressure from the front office, who wanted Nate McMillan to give the 31 year old more time, led to the start.

He came through on the defensive end as well, not only stripping the ball five times, but limiting the more celebrated Paul Pierce to just 3 points, an 0 for 4 night with 3 turnovers in the 37 year old's Nets debut.

Although reports say there's been a rift between Jack and McMillan over playing time, the Heat hope the increased minutes the combo guard has seen in the wake of Darington "Hobgoblin" Hobson's injury will help smooth things over.

GM Jestor is said to consider Jack one of his favorite players, the trade of Miami's 2015 2nd for the veteran sharpshooter last season one of his fondest. Ironically, that trade occurred with the Nets, the very team Miami beat 104-86 on the road tonight.

Bulls Lose 109-93 In Miami

Darington "Hobgoblin" Hobson was the harassing force on defense

At 6'7, 185 lbs, Lee Cummard is used to having the size advantage on opposing shooting guards. But when he and the Chicago Bulls faced the Miami Heat in South Beach, he lined up against Classic Jestorian favorite Darington "Hobgoblin" Hobson, who himself stands tall at 6'7, 205 lbs.

The end result? Hobson used his bulk to stare down the former BYU star and force Cummard to jack 20 of his 23 attempts from behind the arc, or almost 87% of Cummard's attempts. The Bulls SG connected on 7 of them and hit all three of his two point attempts to finish with 27 points, but it wasn't enough as the Heat outscored Chicago 33-12 in the third quarter and went on to win comfortably.

"It was insane playing against him," Cummard said of Hobson. "He's big and he's bought into the shark mentality of the Jestorball system. I just couldn't get around him for better looks."

Miami was led on offense by Aleks Maric (28 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists) and Chris Paul (21 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal) for the starters and Will Conroy (9 points, 5 assists, 2 steals) for the reserves.

The win put the Heat at 13-6, but Miami still remains 4.5 games back of Charlotte and 1.5 back of Orlando in the Southeast.

***

Context Notes
The Southeast is a pain in the ass place in the NLL. 13-6 and still third in the division. I'd forgotten we'd had the 7-1 streak, and man, I love that Jarrett Jack trade even now. I would still put it in the Top 5 all-time best MP trades I've made.

Otherwise, trade rumors, trade rumors galore. Anything less wouldn't be me.

[Izulde]

The Best Group In NLL History?

The NLL's 3 best young big men all reside in the East

Some NLL analysts, such as Jackson Ayorinde speculate that this current generation of young big men just might be the best of the NLL era, rivaling some of the NBA's best periods. That's a bold claim, and to study it, we'll take a look at five of the best and brightest of the young post men in the league.



PF Blake Griffin - New Jersey Nets (23)
Griffin's been hyped for a long time now as an elite big man in the Nets, but he didn't really start living up to his billing until last season, when he averaged 18.6 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks a game on 54.2% shooting. This year he's even better, averaging 20.6 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks on 57.4% shooting. The scariest thing of all? He's not done developing yet and could become one of the top 5 players in the league period if he turns out right. The problem, of course, is a flip-flopping front office in New Jersey that changes its mind constantly about the direction it wants to go in. He also has an Achilles heel and that's his 2.2 TO per game, resulting in a 0.8 A/TO ratio. Another troubling stat: His -4.7 on court and lackluster +0.5 net. On the flip side, he has solid defensive stats with an 83.3% drive stop rate and 1.0 PA/SF.


C Aleks Maric - Miami Heat (26)
The oldest player in this list at 26, Maric has very quietly gotten better each of his several season in the league and one could argue that much like Griffin last year, this season is his breakout campaign. He's averaging an impressive 20.4 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks on a Griffin-matching 57.4%. He has splendid passing and handling for a big man too, and being a disciple of the Jestorball system has resulted in a shocking #2 on the Heat 3.0 A/TO ratio, behind only Chris Paul's 5.2. Need more evidence of his growing superstardom? +6 on court, +6.6 net, behind only Paul and Darrell Arthur on the team. Yet, he comes with his own negatives. Most scouts consider him as having the lowest upside of the young star bigs and his defense - 53.1% drive stop rate and 0.9 PA/SF - is considered merely decent.


C B.J. Mullens - Charlotte Bobcats (22)
After Mullens' fabulous season last year (24.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.1 blocks, 1 steal on a breathtaking 61.7% shooting), league pundits and analysts rushed to declare the Ohio State alum one of the top 5 players in the league. This season has been a step back in terms of counting stats - 18.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 59.1% shooting - but he has to share the ball with Dwayne Wade and Amare Stoudemire, unlike Griffin who has no other scorers alongside him and Maric, who is the clear inside option and co-scoring beast with Paul in Miami. Has a good A/TO ratio of his own at 2.3, but where he really shows his dominance in his +12.5 on court, +10.5 net, 80.9% drive stop rate, and staggering 0.7 PA/SF. And of course he's the unteachable 7', 275 lbs. As one scout put it, "He's the perfect blend of Griffin and Maric's games. He *is* a top 5 player in this league right now."

Scout's Side Note
Here's a very short list of just some of the players Minnesota's traded over the last few years:
Chris Paul
B.J. Mullens
Darrell Arthur

The Timberwolves no doubt have to be kicking themselves over those deals. CP3 and Mullens on the same team would be a nightmare, and a lot of front offices are high on Arthur, too.

These three are clearly the best young bigs of this generation. It's after this where things get into a pretty exciting debate.


C Kosta Koufos - Chicago Bulls (22)
There's something about that there Buckeye state, because Mullens and Koufos are both Ohio State alumni. In another link with Southeast bigs, Koufos is a somewhat underappreciated European similar to Maric. The problem? His stats of 15.9 points and 7.3 rebounds on 53.8% shooting don't cause heart pounding and his career high average of 17.2 points doesn't stand out either. But to dismiss the young Bull because of those stats is to show how little one knows about basketball. Jackson Ayorinde strongly argued for Koufos's inclusion on this list and we'll use his speech as justification.

"You have to understand how the Chicago Style works. It prioritizes the 3 point shot and attacking from the perimeter. This isn't Jestorball we're talking about here, which emphasizes an outside/inside game. I bring up the Heat specifically because Koufos's play style is similar to Maric's. Both excellent passing and handling big men with quality intangibles. Koufos is the better defensive rebounder, Maric on the offensive glass. You put Koufos on the Heat and I guarantee you he puts up numbers equal to or even better than Maric's."

On the other hand, Koufos's 1.1 A/TO ratio seems to counter that argument, although the 71.4% drive stop rate and 1.1 PA/SF are in line with Maric's defensive numbers.

The fifth spot is where the most controversy generated. The following four names were heavily discussed and debated:

Kevin Durant - Los Angeles Clippers (26)
Ed Davis - Utah Jazz (21)
Alexis Ajinca - Cleveland Cavaliers (22)
Michael Beasley - Philadelphia 76ers (24)

(Note to those who would argue names Cole Aldrich, Jerome Jordan, Amir Johnson, Derrick Favors, Jarvis Varnado etc., we looked at a combination of production and overall talent, which eliminated this second tier of players. Check back with us in a couple years on some of these guys).

Michael Beasley was the first to be knocked out. He has all the talent, but hasn't proven on a consistent basis that he can be the man, even with Amare Stoudemire moved out to make him a top option. At 6'8, 210, there's also questions about his size.

Kevin Durant was next to go due to low career shooting % and while it's improved, it's not enough to put him in the Top 5.

So it came down to Ed Davis of the surprising Jazz and Alexis Ajinca of the powerhouse Cleveland Cavaliers.

And in the end, it was.....
















C Alexis Ajinca - Cleveland Cavaliers (22)
3.3 blocks per game, behind only Jarvis Varnado. 13.9 points, 9 rebounds on a career low 51.4%. Think about that for a moment. 51.4% is a career low. Then there's his upside as a scorer, passer, handler, rebounder, and defender. Don't forget his intangibles, either. Essentially the scouts we talked to all said to a man that they expect Ajinca to one day be one of the top big men in the league, possibly even #2 behind Mullens. But the important thing to remember is all of this is potential. There's still a worrying 0.9 A/TO ratio to contend with, but that's something only the Chicago School worries about. Everyone else salivates over his upside and his already stellar defense - 97% drive stop rate and 0.6 PA/SF. He certainly earns his +10.2 on court and his even bigger +10.8 Net.

Of these young big men, Mullens, Maric, Ajinca, and Koufos are all RFAs. All figure to command major money and maximum contracts if they don't sign extensions, but with extension rules yet to be determined, it's unclear if any of these dazzling four will see free agency. Maric, the most loyal of the four, seems the least likely to. Griffin, of course, signed his megadeal last season in the final year of the player agency monopolies.

A post-script on Davis from a scout: "He has the potential to get there, but he just isn't yet. He's definitely one to watch for the future."

Overall Improved Play As Trade Talks Heat Up

Willie "Wonder" Warren has found his rhythm as a reserve

After a disastrous start to the season, Willie "Wonder" Warren has adapted to his role as Darington "Hobgoblin" Hobson's reserve and developed greater consistency and accuracy. But Jarrett Jack has been clamoring for playing time since returning from a slight injury, leaving the coaching staff in a quagmire.

"We're saving Jack for the key moments during the season," Heat head coach Nate McMillan said. "Any time you have a veteran like him, you want to conserve his energy and play him in the minutes that matter most so he stays fresh."

Two teams have come in with strong interest in Warren, but so far no deal is imminent. Jackson Ayorinde reports that one team doesn't have the pieces they'd be willing to trade to execute a deal. The other is an interesting story.

According to rumor, the second team has two players in particular that draw the Heat's interest, one to a high degree, the other to a lukewarm level. Miami proposed a trade involving the first player, a blockbuster that would have involved Warren and Carlos Boozer as the main elements going out. The response was less than flattering.

"Essentially the team ripped Boozer apart and said under no circumstances would he play for them," Ayorinde wrote recently on his blog. "They refused the offer outright and said if Warren was coming to them, it'd involve the lukewarm interest player plus one or two other significant pieces."


Carlos Boozer was not amused at the other team's remarks

The stinging criticism enraged Boozer, who shredded the other team in an expletive-laden tirade.

"Are you -expletive- kidding me? Those bastard (redacted) (redacted) can go to hell. I'll prove them wrong by kicking their asses the next time we play them. They gonna hate on me, they gonna see what the Booze does to a team," said the furious power forward.

Miami officials speaking on condition of anonymity say the Heat are currently in the process of reviewing a lukewarm interest+ deal, but it will be a few days before they make an ultimate determination.

First Round Pick Vital To Miami's Success

Darington "Hobgoblin" Hobson applauded the Heat's picking up of his third and fourth year options

Normally after the NLL draft, teams rush to lock down their first year rookies by picking up their third and fourth year extensions. Not so the Miami Heat, who decided to see what University of New Mexico graduate Darington Hobson could produce on the court first.

A quarter of the season in, the answer is quite a bit. Hobson has commanded the starting SG spot, showing off the kind of size and versatile skills at the 2 spot loved by Jestorball devotees. After last night's blowout win over the New Orleans Hornets, where Hobson shot 5/12 for 15 points with 3 assists, 3 rebounds, 4 steals and 3 turnovers, he's averaging 14.2 points and a steal per game as his most relevant attributes, shooting 43.4% and staggering 46.4% from behind the arc.

"He's absolutely a vital piece in our lineup and frankly, I'd put him in the same untouchable category as Aleks Maric," Heat GM Jestor said.

One scout confirmed that Miami has reason to love the Hobgoblin, noting, "I grade him out as 73 passing/83 handling potential. That's better than a lot of starting point guards in this league. If he reaches that ceiling or if the Heat think he can hit that point, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the following future lineup should CP3 leave in free agency, get traded, or retire earlier than expected:

PG Darington Hobson
SG Willie Warren
SF Darrell Arthur
PF Unknown quantity
C Aleks Maric

I know Arthur's a natural PF, but from the conversations I've had with Miami's front office, they seem to think he'll do better at SF while they plug in a rebounding defender in the 4 spot. All of this, of course, is assuming they keep Warren despite the heavy shopping they've been doing."

In other Miami news, the Heat and their fans are excited for the upcoming away game against the Charlotte Bobcats, who, led by prodigal talent B.J. Mullens, have stormed to the top of the Southeast and are the heavy favorites to win the NLL title this season.

"It'll be a good litmus test for where Miami's at. Nobody right now considers the Heat a serious championship contender, but if they steal this one, maybe some people will start considering them legitimate," the scout said.

Addendum: Hobson has also shown a flair for defense, despite scouts considering him an average at best defender. He famously held Lee Cummard to 7 of 20 three point attempts and also held Raptors' rookie Xavier Henry to 2 of 10 shooting and 2 of 15 shooting in Toronto's two games against the Heat.

***

Context Notes
I left out Greg Oden, who I didn't realize was also 26, because it'd felt like he'd been in the league forever. He was the single best defensive big in the entire league and many considered him the best center. Not me - his shooting % was too pedestrian for me to accord him that accolade.

And so the Carlos Boozer and Willie "Wonder" Warren trade rumor sagas continued, while Darington "Hobgoblin" Hobson further cemented himself as a future cornerstone who was paying immediate dividends.

[Izulde]

Heat Issue Statement Game In Charlotte

Miami's franchise guard, Chris Paul was determined in the road game against the Bobcats

The talk on the practice court and in the locker room in Miami all week has been focused on one thing: Beating the Southeast-leading Charlotte Bobcats on their own turf. This Heat squad, led by stars Chris Paul and Aleks Maric, were hellbent on proving themselves a worthy title contender, despite the short shrift given them by most pundits in the preseason.

Three nights ago, that focused determination transmitted itself into a rousing 114-94 romperstomp of the 'Cats. Charlotte made the opening score and then after Chris Paul drained his first three pointer of the night, it was all Miami the rest of the evening. The Heat bulldozed their way to capturing all three of the first quarters and it was only in the final period, after the reserves got more playing time, that Charlotte was finally able to take a quarter, 24-16.

Leading the way was none other Chris Paul, who abused T.J. Ford, an ironic favorite of Miami GM Jestor, shooting 15/30, 4/6 from behind the arc, for 36 points, 12 assists, and 4 steals. Carlos Boozer played a very capable second. Enraged over recent comments by a team he might have been traded to, Boozer broke out for 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 steals on 8/15 shooting. Bench support came mainly via Will Conroy (12 points, 0 turnovers on 6/11 shooting). The evening also marked the return of Jarrett Jack to the rotation. He posted a quiet 4 points, 3 assists, and a steal on 2/4 shooting.

In many ways, the victory was vintage Jestorball. The Heat had just 7 turnovers and forced the Charlotte backcourt into 11 turnovers by themselves, 5 from T.J. Ford, 6 from Dwayne Wade, lthough Wade had a good shooting night (8/15 for 24 points). All told, Miami swiped the ball 11 times and forced 17 turnovers, giving just 4 steals as part of their own 7 turnovers. The win also featured 50% shooting for the Heat, 42% for the Bobcats.

"This is what we do. This is our basketball religion," Jestor proclaimed afterwards. "Win the turnover battle, give yourself a great opportunity to win the game."

That fundamental Jestorball mantra echoed in the Heat's 115-73 pulvering of the Pacers in Indianapolis two nights later. Miami won the turnover battle 19-10 and rode a balanced offense to the rout. Chris Paul won Player of the Game with 19 points, 7 assists, 3 steals, and a turnover, and he was aided by Aleks Maric (18 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks), Solomon Alabi (12 points, 4 rebounds off the bench), Jarrett Jack (10 bench points), and Will Conroy (9 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 3 steals in 17 minutes).

Those two victories extended Miami's lead over Orlando for second place in the Southeast to two games while simultaneously situating the Heat just three back of the Bobcats.

The Real Question: Is Miami A Championship Contender?
That's the issue that's causing a lot of intense debate amongst NLL observers. Heat fans in South Beach and elsewhere throughout the country will emphatically say yes, but what do the numbers say?

Miami Heat's Top 5 Areas
Points Scored - 106.1 (#3)
FT Shooting % - 77% (T-#4)
Turnovers - 11.0 (#1)
Assists Allowed - 20.8 (T-#5)
Steals Surrendered - 6.1 (T-#1)

The most notable stat here isn't the fewest turnovers and steals surrendered - That's the founding principle of Jestorball, after all. What does stand is out that the Heat now have one of the Top 3 scoring units in the league and, perhaps most surprising, they're now one of the best free throw shooting teams, a scenario that wasn't the case last season.

Miami focused on upgrading their free throw shooting in the offseason by adding Jodie Meeks. Although Meeks has seen limited minutes since being benched, it appears the coaching staff has used his superlative free throw shooting form as a model for other Heat players to improve their own technique.

Miami Heat Top 10 Areas
Assists - 23.4 (T-6th)
Steals 8.1 (10th)
FG % - 47.0 (8th)
Points Allowed - 96.0 (10th)
Rebounds Allowed - 39.2 (9th)
Turnovers Forced - 15.8 (T-7th)

Put those numbers together and you have the following differentials:

Points: +10.1
Assists: +2.6
Steals: +2.0
Turnovers: +4.8

Last season, Miami had definite areas of weakness. This year?

Miami Heat Bottom 5 Areas
Blocks - 3.2 (T-26th)
3 point % - 33.5 (T-23rd)
Blocks Given Up - 5.8 (26th)

These areas are also the only ones in which the Heat fall in the bottom 10. 3 point shooting was a problem last season, but the blocks issue might simply be a case of the Jestorball style of play and a short power forward in Carlos Boozer.

The differentials for the ares not covered above:

Rebounds: +2.3
FG %: +3.1
3 point %: -1.5
Blocks: -3.5

Team Statistical Summary
One could make the case that with the only differential drawbacks a minor negative difference in 3 point shooting and a major negative difference in blocks, the Miami Heat do belong in the conversation as one of the title contenders, although skeptics will likely continue to shrug them off.

What is without question is who the key to the franchise is between CP3 and Maric.


Chris Paul Top 10 League Rankings
Points: 21.3 (T-10th)
Assists: 6.8 (7th)
Steals: 1.7 (T-9th)
A/TO Ratio: 5.4 (Not a tracked stat, but doubtless among the top 10 in starting point guards)

Maric, Hobson's Worst Games Mean Nothing

Tasmin Mitchell snuck up on the T-Wolves like he does cameramen

"Tasmin Mitchell ain't shit. He's garbage." - Erick Senberg, Orlando Magic GM

The above quote was overheard during the NLL's most recent draft, when Miami Heat GM Jestor was talking with a reporter about his trust in the former LSU star Mitchell as the backup small forward and how it related to their plans for Darington "Hobgoblin" Hobson.

But for one night at least, the southernmost of the two rivals looked right. In an astounding 34 point ripping of the Minnesota Timberwolves, Mitchell was a flawless 6/6, including 1/1 from 3 point range for 13 points and a steal in 19 minutes. Mitchell, taken with the 55th overall selection in the same draft that saw Miami take Willie "Wonder" Warren and Michael Washington in the first round, has repeatedly drawn praise from the front office for his acute understanding of the Jestorball system and his willingness to play whatever role he needs to in it. Although most scouts consider Mitchell's defense only slightly above average, he recorded a quality drive stop percentage in his first season and this year is posting a respectable 82.8% drive stop rate with 0.8 PA/SF. He's averaging 4 points a game in 16.4 minutes and shooting 44.1%, 33.3% from long range.

Mitchell also might be the last Miami draft pick to still be on the roster, as new developments have arisen concerning Warren, but those updates will be published in tomorrow's edition.


Will Conroy would like to point out he's currently earning the boku bucks he got paid

The LSU alum wasn't the only bench standout for the Heat in their 103-69 win. Will Conroy hit 5/7 shots (1/2 from 3 point) for 13 points, 3 assists, a steal, and a turnover in just 15 minutes. Conroy, who got off to a rough start this season after signing a stunningly lucrative 2 year, $7 million contract with Miami in free agency, has been fire lately and is now averaging 5 points in 13.2 minutes on a blissful 47.6% shooting. He also has been tutored by Chris Paul and his 3.2 A/TO ratio now ranks second on the team to CP3.

Essentially, Conroy has become another one in what is a growing chain of underrated role players actively sought out by Jestor who have flourished in the Jestorball system. Other examples include Jarrett Jack, still on the team despite a brief flirtation with Charlotte in free agency, and Henk Norel, who attracted such attention after his success in South Beach that he earned a Conroy type contract and a starting spot with the Atlanta Hawks this offseason.

What's also interesting to note is that Conroy and Norel share similar backgrounds: younger players who showed off great shooting form in the D-League and promising ability according to the Heat's scouts.

Offensively it was the heroics of those two reserves and Carlos Boozer, still angry and still on a tear after being criticized by an unknown team, who did most of the scoring work. Boozer won Player of the Game hitting 6/10 shots for 17 points (game high shared with CP3) and 9 rebounds.

And of course, as Minnesota's final point tally suggests, it was Miami's defense that did the rest, overcoming Aleks Maric's 0 points and Darington Hobson's career worst 2 for 12 night by swarming the Timberwolves. All told, the Heat forced 17 turnovers and kept Minnesota to 34.6% shooting.

But Miami also fell back another a half game following Charlotte's two victories on consecutive nights. On the plus side, the Utah Jazz beat the Orlando Magic, extending the Heat's second place lead to three games.

Old Names Popping Up Again, But One New

Gabe Muoneke's had a lot of chilling time on his hands

It wouldn't be an organization run by Jestor if trade rumors didn't continue to sweep through team and city. But the latest out of South Beach has had a couple of interesting modifications in addition to the previous chatter.

The New Wrinkles
1. Chris Paul is officially untouchable. The on again/off again relationship with the front office is now an on love affair, and full on. With the Miami Heat finally getting recognition as a title contender, CP3 will go nowhere. In fact, one source in the front office says, "We're hoping he's extension eligible when the new rules come out. If he's not, then fine, we'll just max him with our Bird Rights and everyone else dreaming of him can go to hell. Jestor wanted to be the guy that would give CP3 a stable home in the first place and now he's going to realize that ambition, come hell or high water.

2. There's a team craving defense who reportedly may have interest in Gabe Muoneke, the sweet passing, handling, and defending SF who some in the Heat front office would fill the Jamario Moon role before getting beat out by Darington Hobson, Darrell Arthur, and of course the Classic Jestorian philosophy of "Trust the guys who are proven in your system and stay loyal to the players you love", like Tasmin Mitchell. If Muoneke does go, look for it to be a small deal, a chance for the Team Nigeria member to go elsewhere for actual playing time.

And as for the persistent Willie "Wonder" Warren and Carlos Boozer rumors?


When will the chatter about Willie "Wonder" Warren come to a conclusion?

The latest reports say that Miami had up to five suitors, two in the East and three in the West, at one point for the sophomore who was part of the Heat's successful Wonderpaul backcourt last season. Talks are dead with one of the West suitors, although the other two remain interested, with a possible third threat to acquire him emerging. As for the East suitors, discussions appear to be on the unlikely side.

"Essentially, the front office is taking a stance that they know what they want for Warren and if they can't get what they're looking for, then they'll sit on him and keep him as insurance in case by some chance Paul bolts in free agency," beat reporter and NLL observer Jackson Ayorinde said. He went on to comment that it appeared Miami was targeting several under 30 big men in talks, no doubt looking for Carlos Boozer's heir apparent or replacement if he's dealt.

As for The Booze himself? Speculation is that his fate is tied to Warren's. Because of the Heat's financial situation, any deal involving Warren is likely to involve Boozer in order to match salaries, given the salaries of the whispered big men targets. One scenario had him going in a three way to the Dallas Mavericks, but insiders say that possibility was shot down before it could even get started.

What -is- certain is that if Warren doesn't get traded, Boozer won't either. "Miami's front office has declared they're going for the title this season," Ayorinde noted in a recent blog post. "If they can't use Warren as the primary bait to get the exact kind of guy they want, they'll keep Boozer, who's been doing great for them, and enter the free agent market the offseason after next when his then $27 million contract expires."

But that's not the last of the rumored players to again be talked about.


Solomon Alabi speaks with reporters about the revival in trade gossip concerning him

We learned recently that the Miami Heat had a trade in principle with the Houston Rockets and the New York Knicks in the last draft. Had Daniel Orton been off the board with the 15th pick, Alabi would have gone to New York for the Rockets' 15th overall pick and Miami would have drafted Darington "Hobgoblin" Hobson, their only first round target in the entire class.

As it turns out, of course, Miami got Hobson anyway, only having to surrender Mantas Kalnietas and #20 to the Sacramento Kings when the New Mexico alum slid to #19.

Alabi's been rumored to another team earlier in the year, and sources say talks have again picked up with that same squad. But with Muoneke's Team Nigeria teammate performing so well in Miami, his value may be the highest it's been since he was drafted 19th overall in Warren's year. More importantly, the Heat are wary of upsetting the chemistry they've established in their frontcourt by trading him away.

And as Ayorinde ultimately concluded in his post discussing these developments, "Miami's really in a perfect situation right now. They've shown they can beat the East favorite Charlotte Bobcats on the road and are clicking beautifully. They don't need to make a deal, so they can afford to sit back and be patient."

Patient. A word not often used when describing the Heat's GM.

***

Context Notes
I really felt like we were a contender in the early going of that season. Opinion in the league overall was split - Some saw us as a serious threat to take the title, and others thought we were in the middle of the East, which at that time was still very much the strongest conference, Oklahoma City's championship the year before notwithstanding (Most considered it a fluke, including me).

You'll probably have noticed by now that I tend to be very careful about my finances. Not once have I ever fallen afoul of luxury tax penalties in any MP league I've been in, though I'm very, very close in one of the leagues I'm in right now, but even that will only be one season, as there's a $9 million+ expiring on the books who will wipe that out after the upcoming year.

[Izulde]

Project Player Intrigues Miami Brass

Gani Lawal won't be slumming in the D-League much longer

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets media guide a few years ago generously listed F Gani Lawal at 6'9, 234, when he actually measures out at 6'8, 233 lbs. That gift was the last bit of generosity Lawal has seen, as he never saw a game for the Mavericks, banished to toiling in the D-League last season and this. It appeared, for all intents and purposes, that Lawal would be just another one of untold numbers of second rounders who were told, "Sorry, Charlie. You just don't have it to make it in this league."

But then the Ranger Report came out a week ago, highlighting the performances of some of the D-League's stars. Players such as former #12 overall pick Bill Walker and yes, Lawal, were spotlighted as athletes who should be getting called up to the NLL.

Down came the NLL teams to scout those players and others around the D-League, creating more interest in the minor leagues than has been seen in some time. The scrutiny resulted in Walker's getting an offer from the Boston Celtics, with his signing expected to occur in the next couple days. But that's not the only transfer expected to happen soon.

The Miami Heat flew one of their scouts out to Los Angeles to check on Lawal and the scout came away very impressed with the 22 year old's potential.

A snippet from the summary:

Undersized for the 4 at 6'8, 233, but has superb potential as a rebounder and as an inside shooter. Could develop into a very solid handler for a big man. Won't be anything more than average on defense and in terms of intangibles. Does however have very good work ethic and is a great locker room presence. Overall, a recommended signing for our last spot on the roster and a worthy project player to address our future rebounding concerns.

Lawal is averaging 11 points and 10.3 rebounds on 51.4% shooting for the Sea Dogs, who are tied with Bakersfield and Utah for the West Division lead, currently 7-4. He ranks third in the league in rebounding, tied with fellow Ranger Report listing Bryan Davis of Anaheim, and 12th in FG %.

The move might well be a foreshadowing of Solomon Alabi or Gabe Muoneke's departure from South Beach, as the Heat's tradition of picking up under the radar players has also meant giving those acquisitions some minutes on the court.

If the signing and outcome both prove successful, the move will rank as the latest in Miami's string of proven D-league players who have found a home in Jestorball, such as Henk Norel last season and Will Conroy this year.

Heat's Six Game Win Streak Ends - Exhaustion Cited As Reason

Despite the loss, Nate McMillan has drawn praise in his first year as Miami's head coach

Shot after shot misfired, failing to find the net for the Miami Heat in tonight's game against the Memphis Grizzlies, and the end result was a dispiriting 96-83 away loss that snapped the Heat's six game losing streak. Miami shot just 38.6% from the floor, 26.9% from 3 point range, while the Grizzlies converted 48.7%, 61.5% from behind the arc.

"We were tired right from the get-go after last night in Houston," Miami head coach Nate McMillan said afterwards. "We looked rubbery at the end of the game against the Rockets and were just able to pull it out. That flight from Houston to Memphis didn't do us any resting favors and we were flat all night long."

It was not only the Heat's second straight game in as many nights, but their fourth away game in five contests. "That kind of traveling will catch up with you after a while," McMillan said.

Chris Paul and Jarrett Jack did their best to carry the team with 28 and 11 points respectively, but with Aleks Maric playing just 27 minutes and taking just 5 shots, Darrell Arthur going 0 for 8 a night after breaking out for 24 points against the Rockets, and the team in general having one of their worst nights of the year, the outcome was never in doubt.

"It's only one game," Paul said. "Every team has nights where they just can't get anything going. Tonight was our turn."

Miami finishes off their road trip on January 5th before hosting the Pacers on the 7th. The 9th brings one of the biggest games of the season, the first game of this season's Florida Wars in Orlando against the Magic.

A Handful Of Incoherents Arrested

Miami police watch to make sure the crowd doesn't get unruly

An odd group stormed the Miami Heat headquarters this evening, shouting, "Free him! Free him!" as they banged on the doors of the building and waved basketballs in the air.

City police quickly moved to break up the small mob, arresting six for drunk and disorderly conduct and another for possession of controlled substances.

Police captain Enrique Sanchez admitted to not knowing who the protesters were referring to.

"They wouldn't give us a name. They just kept shouting 'Free him! Free him!' up at the windows of team headquarters."

Some speculate it's a reference to recent D-League signee Gani Lawal, who was not activated for Miami's 30 point blowout over the Celtics in Boston.

But one arrested individual laughed when informed of the rumor.

"Those who know, know. And those who don't may or may not know before IT happens."

Blockbuster Move All But Guaranteed Not To Happen

Carlos Boozer is simply too valuable for Miami to let him go

The latest news out of South Florida just before the Florida Wars 2011 Round 3 (currently tied at 1-1) is that Carlos Boozer will stay in Miami. According to organization staffers, he's too important on the court and financially for the Heat to move him.

That might have changed had Miami been successful in their pursuit of Cavaliers big man Alexis Ajinca, with officials confirming a "significant" offer made for the star young RFA to be, but Cleveland decided to stand pat.

In fact, the chances of a blockbuster involving Miami now seems extremely remote. While rumors still persist and percolate around Willie "Wonder" Warren and Solomon Alabi, the mood in the front office seems to have become one content to let the ship sail on.

"Financially we've positioned ourselves to become free agent players in two years. We're doing extremely well in the wins column and the locker room right now, so our feeling is why get impatient and make a trade that wrecks our harmony? It would take a major improvement for us, either immediately, in the future, or both for us to consider pulling the trigger," a source said.

It's also been reported the organization is extremely pleased with Gani Lawal's progress through the first half of the season in the D-League and the short time he's been in Miami. Although he's expected to continue his current time-share with Andris Biedrins, the front office is believed to have re-signing Lawal in free agency as a top priority.

The Heat are also preparing to begin extension discussions with Aleks Maric, and, if he's ruled eligible, Chris Paul.

Season Series Tied 1-1

All eyes will be on NLL leading scorer Demar Derozan

Thus far, the Florida Wars have been a 1-1 tie, with the home team winning each game in the season rivalry between the Miami Heat and the Orlando Magic. Miami, at 24-8, is three games ahead of 22-12 Orlando in the Southeast. With two fanbases that hate each other and two general managers in Jestor and Erick Senberg known for their constant war of words, it promises to be another exciting contest.

Point Guard
Chris Paul vs. Kirk Hinrich
Paul is the leader of the Heat, averaging 21.8 points, 6.5 assists, 1.8 steals and boasting a 5.6 A/TO ratio in addition to an 88.3% drive stop rate and 0.9 PA/SF. In general, as CP3 goes, so goes Miami.

Hinrich may be 33, but he's still a quality floor general, averaging 10.6 points and 6 assists with a 77.3% drive stop rate and 0.9 PA/SF (2.4 A/TO ratio). His primary goal will be to run the offense and disrupt Paul as much as possible.

Advantage: Miami

Shooting Guard
Darington Hobson vs. Rodney Stuckey
Hobgoblin is an inconsistent shooter, either really on or really cold, at this point in his career, but is still averaging 13.6 points, 3.9 assists and 1.2 steals. He's also developing a reputation as a defensive stopper better than what scouts rate him (86.1% drive stop, 0.9 PA/SF)

Stuckey is blossoming into a star in his third season, averaging 18.6 points and 6.4 assists, with a 2.7 A/TO ratio. 77.8% drive stop rate and 0.8 PA/SF as he plays a number of differnet positions in Orlando's scheme.

Advantage: Orlando

Small Forward
Darrell Arthur vs Demar Derozan
9.4 points and 4.8 rebounds make Arthur the lowest scorer in Miami's first five, but he's averaging close to a block and steal per game and has a 76.2% drive stop rate, an impressive 0.7 PA/SF. His priority will be to shut down Derozan as much as possible.

26 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks... is it any wonder Derozan won the MVP last season? Also with a 90% drive stop rate and 0.8 PA/SF. He's the Magic's CP3, the guy who makes all the magic happen.

Advantage: Orlando

Power Forward
Carlos Boozer vs. Steven Hunter
10.2 point and 7.4 rebounds for the Booze, who continues to be a valuable presence in the Heat's Jestorball system and provides veteran leadership in the locker room. He's a defensive sieve, though (29.6% drive stop rate, 1.1 PA/SF).

Hunter's one of the more underrated players in the league, with the same 90% drive stop rate as Derozan and 0.8 PA/SF. Averaging 7.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks.

Advantage: Draw

Center
Aleks Maric vs. DeAndre Jordan
17.6 points, 9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks for Maric, who's had a little trouble finding his own shot lately. 63% drive stop rate, 0.9 PA/SF. Started off great, but may be starting to hit a dry spell as teams gameplan to shut down Miami's interior scoring.

100% drive stop rate and 0.8 PA/SF shows off Jordan's defensive prowess, and he's averaging 9.8 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks a game. But he's also shooting a ghastly for a big 43.5% as he works on refining his shot.

Advantage: Miami

The benches are too complex to compare, as both teams utilize a role-based strategy for their reserves and throw out a variety of different looks on the floor.

Ultimately, even with Hassan Whiteside's injury, these teams are so closely matched, the home team should win again with Orlando the victors.

***

Context Notes
Yep, Orlando did win that round, and Billy Bucket, the Mavericks GM, predicted Demar Derozan would drop 40 points on us. ...He did, which was the main deciding factor.

We were still doing extremely well, dropping to 24-10 I think it was after the losses to Orlando and then constant powerhouse Cleveland, who were the worst possible matchup for us in any playoff situation, and the one team we'd never been able to beat.

I don't remember what that protest article was about now - probably something related to a trade that I'll remember/reveal later.

[Izulde]

Finances, Moves Welcome Distraction From Losing

Chris Paul will be able to buy lots of medals

The Miami Heat are mired in a three game losing streak, so it was with great relief that fans were able to turn their attention to the opening of the contract extension period and the latest trade rumors.

According to the League Financial Office's just released list of extension-eligible players, both Chris Paul and Aleks Maric are able to be extended in season. While the eligibility was no surprise for Maric, CP3's listing is a tremendous coup for the Heat, who now will be able to lock their franchise face up long term rather than having to risk the murky waters of free agency.

"This is huge for us," admitted Miami Heat GM Jestor. "Any time you have the security of being able to lock up your team's most important player without having to enter the shark-infested waters of free agency, it's major. It resolves a central problem in the planning of your franchise's future."

Negotiations have already begun with both star players' agents and their expected removal from the free agent class, along with other such luminaries as Orlando's Demar Derozan, Chicago's Kosta Koufos, and Milwaukee's Tyrus Thomas, will be devastating blows to those teams hoping for the richest free agent class in NLL history. Even with the expected extensions of these and other stars, it should still promise to be a vast improvement over last year's crop, with Dwight Howard the marquee name in what was widely considered a lackluster group.

In other South Beach moves, sources say Solomon Alabi is now all but off the block. Speculation surrounded the second year big man for weeks, but team insiders report that Alabi's unique blend of talents means Miami isn't letting him go. As one official put it, "It'd have to take a bend his new team over and give them a from behind pounding for us to even consider it."

Far less secure is Willie "Wonder" Warren, another second year. According to a few highly placed front office members, the Heat are in discussion with three teams in the West and two packages appear to be on the table. One involves a solid young big and a pair of first round picks, although likely to be late, the other a promising young 3 point sharpshooter and a projected mid first round pick. The third team as of yet has made no formal offer, but remains a suitor. The East, which formerly had a significant amount of chatter, has since dropped out, but once interested teams may yet surface again.

Sources also reiterated that, contrary to a recently published report, Carlos Boozer will not be going anywhere. Much like Alabi, Boozer's overall value to the Heat is greater than any likely return.

Maric Leads Tidal Wave Of Big Men Signings

Aleks Maric has a lot of green in his life after signing his extension with the Miami Heat

Miami Heat GM Jestor looked at the contract request from Aleks Maric's agent, bolted from his chair to grab a form and scribble numbers on it, added his signature, and ran out the door to personally deliver the deal to his star center. Maric signed immediately and just like that, the Team Australia member became the first in-season extension signing in this post-PA monopoly period.

Others soon followed, including the expected Kosta Koufos and Lee Cummard signings with the Chicago Bulls, and, in what came as a bit of a surprise given the team's swift agreement, Cole Aldrich's signing of a max deal to stay with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Maric and Koufos, cited as similar players, did not receive max contracts, both settling for over five year deals, $11 million+ base, and 8% raises ($11.47 base for Maric, $11.93 base for Koufos). Cummard's team first attitude, on the other hand, resulted in a generous four year, $8.475 million base with 9% raises extension far below his expected open market value.

Jackson Ayorinde was one of the few analysts who didn't find Cleveland's speedy commitment to Aldrich on a max deal the least bit surprising.

"Basically what they said was, okay we know he's going to get max on the market. We see him as absolutely essential to our success, so let's just give him the max now and eliminate any uncertainty.

However, this decision also means that they're going to have a tough choice concerning Alexis Ajinca. Cleveland has apparently indicated a willingness to sign him to the max as well. But if that happens, then they'll probably lose Marco Bellinelli and without question, Stephen Curry is gone next offseason. They can't afford to keep Aldrich and Ajinca and Derrick Rose and Curry and Bellinelli and Anthony Randolph. It's financially impossible.

So what the Cavaliers have to decide is, what combination of players do they value more? If they're smart, they'll trade Curry now before the threat of free agency diminishes his value. Otherwise you'll have a team in desperate need of a quality perimeter shooter and 3 point gunner, like say the Miami Heat, throwing so much money at Curry he'll be gone with no return."

Ayorinde went on to say that he thought if the Cavaliers offered the maximum or matched a maximum offer sheet from a competitor, that Ajinca was a lock to stay.

In other PF/C news, the Utah Jazz have announced they intend to play hardball with Pops Mensah-Bonsu, demanding a flat rate contract rather than any raises. It's a very dangerous gamble, because should Mensah-Bonsu become angry and declare for free agency, he'll be stepping into a class that has suddenly lost many of its most promising post prospects in Maric, Koufos, and Aldrich.

Tyrus Thomas of the Milwaukee Bucks shockingly stabbed his loyal organization in the back, demanding five years, $14.1 million base, and 9% raises. No word yet on how Tim Wallis will treat the demands on his favorite Buck.

Jeff Adrien made an even more outrageous demand from the Phoenix Suns, asking for near-Maric/Koufos level money at $10.94 million base, five years, and 8% raises.

Lastly in the bigs news, Jerome Jordan of the Oklahoma City Thunder sought a payday equivalent to Maric and Koufos, requesting five years, $11.17 million base with 8% raises. The Thunder had not yet made a decision by press time, as they're already at over $73 million in committed money this season and next, and with the NLL salary cap due to decline, the defending champions will not be able to afford to extend any of their players unless they move one of the major contracts like Carmelo Anthony, Zach "Z-Boobs" Randolph and Shaun Livingston.

Rumors of Free Agency-Declared Players On Block Not True For CP3

Chris Paul relaxes in his spare time by bowling

Just moments after Aleks Maric became part of trivia history as the first player to sign an in-season extension in the post-PA NLL, Miami's other superstar, Chris Paul, announced that he would test the free agency waters. The decision, although disappointing to the Heat faithful, was understandable. Several teams are rich in cap space and eager to go shopping in what promises to be one of the most lucrative free agent classes in history. There's also the small matter of the on-again, off-again trade rumors that have surrounded the franchise face.

Ironic, then, that when the Heat stand on a perilous precipice, potentially losing Paul for nothing, the front office has reaffirmed its earlier decision to keep CP3 off the block. This digging of the heels naturally raises the question as to why now the obstinacy.

1. No team in the league will offer value equivalent to Chris Paul in a trade
This has been one of the slowest years in memory for trades, and despite all the speculation of a Day 90 deal binge, deeper investigation reveals that there aren't likely to be any headline grabbing trades, nor will there be the great deluge that some were predicting earlier in the season. In essence, it has become a tight, rigid market, with teams negotiating very conservatively.

The Miami Heat are no exception to this rule. Time and time again we've heard about the possible, even near-imminent departure of Wilie "Wonder" Warren and/or Solomon Alabi and time and time again, all the gossip has dissipated to nothingness. In fact, Alabi was very recently pulled from the block, while Warren is now looking less and less likely to go anywhere.

It is precisely this sort of frigid, closed fist climate that is the worst situation to try and trade a superstar in. Even in more warm, open times, the chance of getting close to equitable value for a franchise face is slim. In our present, inhospitable tundra, it is virtually impossible.

2. Miami has the financial flexibility to absorb CP3's max, even into a sixth year.
Jestor, although well-known for his hatred of free agency as a means of player acquisition, was very careful in constructing Miami's financial situation. Even when the Heat had cap space to burn last offseason, he didn't spend it going for the top guns in one of the weakest free agent classes ever. Instead, he signed role players like Will Conroy (although an admitted slight overpay), Jarrett Jack, and Andris Biedrins to two year deals and spent the rest of the cash on a young starter in a trade for Darrell Arthur.

This cautious approach means that the only expensive, long-term contracts on Miami's books are Arthur and Mari. Everyone else is either short-term (like Carlos Boozer) or on a rookie contract. Currently, the Heat are at $65.9 million and would be at approximately $50.5 million next season if CP3 walked. Because Paul already has a $16.3 million cap number, Miami would be able to afford his max contract without even coming close to sniffing hard cap danger, as the increase would be but a minor percentage of its current rate.

3. The Heat will not be in totally dire straits if he walks.
Although the front office has vowed to bring CP3 back at any cost, let's say for a moment he goes to a team like the Lakers, who will be guaranteed to have the cash to offer at least one, if not two max contracts, given that they're $14 million under the cap already and have Gilbert Arenas's $20 million and Johan Petro's $5.5 million expirings on tap.

Heat Nation will howl with pain and rage, but Miami will not be left in too terrible a condition, because then the following scenario plays out:

1. The team stands pat the rest of free agency as they'll still have a full roster even given the loss of Paul, Biedrins, Gani Lawal, and potentially Jodie Meeks.

2. Willie Warren, assuming he's not traded, is handed the starting PG job and given a full season to prove he can run an NLL offense, or at least the Jestorball system.

3. Miami falls into the lottery next year without Paul, fighting it out with Atlanta for the bottom of the Southeast. They then have their own pick in the lottery, plus a late first (Phoenix's) to get an impact player in the draft.

4. Jestor's financial planning reveals itself as Boozer ($27.3 million), Conroy ($3.5 million), Gabe Muoneke ($2 million), Marcus Banks ($1.4 million), Jack ($1.2 million), and Tasmin Mitchell ($0.667 million) all come off the books at the same time, and the Heat will already have been under the cap by virtue of sitting out the past offseason.

5. Suddenly it's the Heat who are in the driver's seat to control free agency, with 3/5 of their lineup already a lock (Maric, Arthur, and Darington Hobson, potentially more depending on their draft selections, and an already solid bench built with their other draft picks. They're then in position to ironically buy their way into elite status with the right players.

6. With a reloaded team, and no one yet even 30, the Heat establish themselves as the new Cavaliers/Pistons/Bobcats of the East along with the Pacers and most likely the Magic.

This, of course, would require several things to go correctly, but it illustrates quite clearly why the Heat have put themselves in a good position no matter how the situation with Paul plays out.

CP3, Boozer, Hobson Lead Way In Rout

Carlos Boozer worked his magic against the Knicks

Miami Heat head coach Nate McMillan gathered his players before tonight's game and said, "Let's get back to the way we used to play. Let's go out there and win." McMillan followed that up by announcing that Darington "Hobgoblin" Hobson was back in the starting lineup. The end result? The same Knicks team that shocked the Heat by 10 points in New York two days earlier fell 115-86 in Miami, halting the Heat's four game skid.

Chris Paul received Player of the Game honors for his 25 point, 7 assist, 4 rebound performance, but Carlos Boozer deserved just as much of the credit, producing a sparkling 18 points and 10 rebounds on 7/8 shooting, while holding Serge Ibaka, who reamed Miami for 24 points, 11 rebounds and 3 blocks in the Big Apple, to just 6 points and 6 rebounds. Observes also credited Hobson's defensive work, forcing Tyreke Evans to chuck 7 of 17 shots (41.2%), as opposed to Evans' masterpiece 32 points two nights again. In addition to his defense, Hobson notched 7 rebounds and 6 assists to atone for another poor 5 of 14 shooting night.

Aleks Maric had a comparatively quiet night in his first game after becoming the first in-season extension signing in the post-PA era, taking just 6 shots en route to a 12 point, 8 rebound, 3 assist night.

Jarrett Jack led the bench, flourishing in his restored 6th man role for 14 points and 2 steals, while Willie "Wonder" Warren provided garbage time highlights, hitting both his shots for 4 points and a rebound in a single minute of court time.

Overall, the Heat shot 53.8% from the floor, 46.7% from long range while limiting the Knicks to 41.2% shooting.

"We got back to the Jestorball way this game," McMillan said after the game. "Now we can use this win to hopefully put together another strong run like we had earlier in the year."

***

Context Notes
Damn, was I excited when Maric signed that extension. If he'd hit FA, he would have gotten a max contract for sure. Instead, he and Koufos both signed below-market rates due to high loyalty/comparatively low greed.

CP3 deciding to hit the market was a rough blow, but it made sense. Now it remained to be seen whether or not we could convince him to re-sign with us. That four game losing streak was aggravating as well, but we got it turned around for at least one game with the lineup changes.

[sterlingice]

How are free agents decided? Is it that you didn't give him a contract quick enough or for enough money? Or is this something inside the game itself?

SI

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

How are free agents decided? Is it that you didn't give him a contract quick enough or for enough money? Or is this something inside the game itself?

SI

It used to be human-based player agents in this league.

Then it switched to a spreadsheet where a player's rating such as Greed, Loyalty, Play For Winner, Playing Time factored in, as well as, of course, the offer the mother team makes. I forget the current setup just off the top of my head, but yeah.

CP3 has only average loyalty (about 50) and his greed is slightly higher than his loyalty, so he decided to check out free agency.