The 2024 Presidential Election - Kamala vs Trump - who will win?

[Edward64]

Not who you want to win.

Who do you think will win. Assume it'll be contested either way, but resolved eventually.

Poll is not anonymous. So, talk smack or eat crow after. [Edit: scratch that, I could've sworn I clicked on the checkbox?]


For the record, I picked Kamala.

[Lathum]

I have to think she wins. Women are pissed and I refuse to believe as a nation we could elect such a vile human being

[Ksyrup]

I don't have as much faith as Lathum but hope I'm wrong.

[Racer]

I voted Trump in this poll but really really really hope I am wrong.

[Ksyrup]

I'm in line to vote right now and the wait is going to be long. I asked where the TSA Precheck line was.

[Atocep]

Kamala is in better shape as he head into election day. She has multiple paths to win and late polling gives her slight leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If she wins those 3 states Trump doesn't really have a path to a win.

My biggest concern with a Kamala win would be if she wins those 3 states and Trump takes every other swing state we're looking at a 270-268 election and we're 100% guaranteed to see significant violence from MAGA if they feel they only need to force one state to flip.

[Ksyrup]

What is the set up in any of those 3 states for the state to withhold, delay or challenge the slate of electors they would send?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

What is the set up in any of those 3 states for the state to withhold, delay or challenge the slate of electors they would send?

Wisconsin - Dem Gov, SOS, Republicans dominate heavily gerrymandered legislature
Michigan - Dems control everything
Pennsylvania - Dem Gov, SOS, Split legislature

[RainMaker]

I feel like the polls have been weird and don't tell us too much. So with that, nothing would surprise me. Harris could just win all the states Biden did and that would make sense. It would make sense that Trump wins because Harris ran a bad campaign and was too tied to a historically unpopular President.

Gun to my head prediction is Harris wins. I feel like Dobbs is just an enormous weight around Trump's neck. But I think he'll win Arizona and maybe Nevada.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I feel like the polls have been weird and don't tell us too much. So with that, nothing would surprise me. Harris could just win all the states Biden did and that would make sense. It would make sense that Trump wins because Harris ran a bad campaign and was too tied to a historically unpopular President.

Gun to my head prediction is Harris wins. I feel like Dobbs is just an enormous weight around Trump's neck. But I think he'll win Arizona and maybe Nevada.

That feels right, though I'm not sure about Nevada. Further, Dems will lose the Senate by one, but win the House by 8-12.

[Izulde]

Between Dobbs and Trump, I'm smelling a Kamala win. If the Republicans had nominated literally anyone else, it becomes a red wave based on the economy.

I'm predicting Kamala as President, but a totally Republican Congress (Both House and Senate).

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

That feels right, though I'm not sure about Nevada. Further, Dems will lose the Senate by one, but win the House by 8-12.

Nevada will go Trump. I'm pretty comfortable in saying that. The blue margin in Las Vegas will be less than in 2020 and that'll be enough to deliver the state to him.

[Jas_lov]

I predict Harris wins based on Ralston, Selzer and Marist. And since these elections tend to happen in waves I think she wins 6 or 7 of the battleground states with Arizona being the only iffy one. It just seems to be heading in her direction with everything that's happened this week. Late breakers break to her because they like her. Pollsters are herding and missing young voters, women, independents and minorities for Harris. Harris has pivoted to a positive message, that probably means they like where they are or they'd be going negative.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

I predict Harris wins based on Ralston, Selzer and Marist. And since these elections tend to happen in waves I think she wins 6 or 7 of the battleground states with Arizona being the only iffy one. It just seems to be heading in her direction with everything that's happened this week. Late breakers break to her because they like her. Pollsters are herding and missing young voters, women, independents and minorities for Harris. Harris has pivoted to a positive message, that probably means they like where they are or they'd be going negative.

North Carolina early voting is looking bad for the GOP. That's one, if Kamala wins, where we'll see plenty of legal shenanigans because the areas hit hardest by the hurricane are trending well behind other areas for early vote turnout and those areas tend to be very red.

I don't see Arizona going Kamala's way. I think Nevada is 50/50.

[flere-imsaho]

I predict we'll still be waiting for a result this weekend and possibly into next week because at least one state, likely Wisconsin, is still counting votes.

I also predict that if it becomes clear that Harris is going to win that there will be violence directed at poll workers and the Trump campaign will be stoking violence and lobbying the GOP in Congress to not certify the vote.

In short, I'm expecting a particularly ugly period of history between now and February.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Kamala is in better shape as he head into election day. She has multiple paths to win and late polling gives her slight leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If she wins those 3 states Trump doesn't really have a path to a win.

My biggest concern with a Kamala win would be if she wins those 3 states and Trump takes every other swing state we're looking at a 270-268 election and we're 100% guaranteed to see significant violence from MAGA if they feel they only need to force one state to flip.

You'd have to put the electors into hiding. One death threat to get 269-269 and Trump wins.

[Lathum]

It is going to be gross. I suspect at some point tomorrow night Trump comes out and declares victory and is backed by Mike Johnson.

[JPhillips]

Starting to see the argument that if Kamala wins 270-268 the GOP will sue saying the census was incorrect. Sounds crazy, but who knows with this SCOTUS.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Starting to see the argument that if Kamala wins 270-268 the GOP will sue saying the census was incorrect. Sounds crazy, but who knows with this SCOTUS.

The only thing that gives me hope is the SC has been loath to get involved in elections.

I also don't think ACB and Brett have a particular feeling of loyalty to Trump despite him putting them there.

[Atocep]

The concern with SCOTUS is you have 2 votes for whatever bullshit the GOP comes up with regardless of how crazy it is.

Can anyone think of anything Thomas and Alito wouldn't vote in support of on the GOP side? I'm fairly certain they'd be ok with making Trump king, given the opportunity.

[Lathum]

Erin Burnett is fucking hot.

[GrantDawg]

Always has been.

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[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It is going to be gross. I suspect at some point tomorrow night Trump comes out and declares victory and is backed by Mike Johnson.

The worse it looks for Trump, the earlier he's going to declare victory. That might be the bigger tell than trying to extrapolate the remaining vote totals with interactive maps on every cable news channel.

[RainMaker]

I can see all the bad scenarios playing out if he loses, but also, he's nearly 80, and this is his last hurrah. Guessing many in the Republican Party are yearning to get him out and tired of losing elections because of him. Maybe they just decide it's time to move on and they let him stew in Florida.

[larrymcg421]

He is 100% running again if he loses.

[RainMaker]

Agree, but his brain has already turned to mush and I can't imagine the condition he'll be in in 4 years.

[RainMaker]

The other thing that makes this election so hard to call is the difference in VBM because of the pandemic. Like Pennsylvania is down, especially in Philly. Is that a bad sign for Dems or does it just mean people will go back to voting in person now that the pandemic is over?

[GrantDawg]

I think VBM is down because no one is trusting the post office. My wife started to ask for a VBM ballot, and I talked her out of it. Especially here in Georgia, it can take a month for me to get a bill mailed from across town. We had a customer drop a check off in the post office where our PO box is, and somehow someone got it, added a zero, and cashed it. On top of all the Trump people promising to challenge every mail in ballot, there is no way in hell I would vote by mail if I had any other choice.

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[Atocep]

I filled out my ballot on Friday and got it out in the mail with the wife's. I checked earlier today and both have been accepted.

I just have to make sure I remember to fill out my other 10 ballots.

[GrantDawg]

Good for you, but we are in ground zero of a bunch of shenanigans here. Why take a chance when she ended up walking in and out of the booth in 5 minutes? It would have took longer to fill out the request form, fill out the ballot, make sure you have every signature in the right lines and fill out every date on the forms and envelopes in the correct manner, etc.

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[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Good for you, but we are in ground zero of a bunch of shenanigans here. Why take a chance when she ended up walking in and out of the booth in 5 minutes? It would have took longer to fill out the request form, fill out the ballot, make sure you have every signature in the right lines and fill out every date on the forms and envelopes in the correct manner, etc.

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No doubt. It's weird to see the election issues and stress about voting here when we just get mailed a ballot every election, fill it out, toss it in the mail. No long lines and you can check the status of your ballot at any time.

In 2024 there's absolutely no reason for anyone to stand in line for hours to vote unless they make the choice to do so.

[RainMaker]

I forgot they left DeJoy in as postmaster general.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I forgot they left DeJoy in as postmaster general.

Yes, which made it even funnier that Trump was complaining about the US Postal Service screwing him over as yet another conspiracy to rig the election.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Atocep

North Carolina early voting is looking bad for the GOP. That's one, if Kamala wins, where we'll see plenty of legal shenanigans because the areas hit hardest by the hurricane are trending well behind other areas for early vote turnout and those areas tend to be very red.

I don't see Arizona going Kamala's way. I think Nevada is 50/50.

I'm not going to wade into most election stuff here, because I think, more important than the result itself, is that we all figure out a way to move forward as a united country afterward.

The 13 counties most affected by Helene gave Trump about 43,000 of the 74,000-vote margin he won by in 2020. So this is a sensitive issue.

That said, North Carolina released statewide mail-in and early-voting totals today (not the vote counts themselves, thankfully) and turnout has averaged 58.7% in those counties, 58.6% in the 15 counties in the emergency zone not as hard hit (Trump had a 204,000-vote advantage in this group) and 54.8% in the 72 counties that were relatively unaffected.

In 2020, overall turnout (including election day) averaged 78.7% in the first group of counties, 78.4% in the second group and 76.4% in the rest of the state.

I think the state has done an incredible job there. More than 100 people died in North Carolina just over a month ago and life is not all that close to back to normal. Voting access is a big part of community, and the state has made it a focus to ensure people can vote.

I can't speak for the entire country or the bajillion lawsuits regarding every aspect of this mess, but in North Carolina, I think the Republicans should be able to say that Raleigh gave a damn about this issue.

I don't have a great sense of tomorrow. It all comes down to whether the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon of 2016 and 2020 was handled properly in the polls this time. Who knows? The pollsters have herded so much in this cycle that it may well have introduced an entirely new type of error. But if I had to lay money on something, and I won't, I'll say whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the election.

[NobodyHere]

I tried to vote before work today but the place was packed with a line out the door. I bet it would've been at least an hour wait.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I think, more important than the result itself, is that we all figure out a way to move forward as a united country afterward.

That's not going to happen. The divide is way to deep for that anytime soon.

[Sweed]

I think Harris is going to end up winning.

I'm in Iowa and hope my vote will actually count for a change, but despite the polls that showed she had a chance I'll be surprised if Trump doesn't win in Iowa. Having said that when at my son's house in a town that is all but in name a suburb of Des Moines there were quite a few Harris signs and almost no Trump signs. But as you get farther into the small towns and country I don't think that holds. I think there are less Trump signs there too, but they weren't replaced with Harris signs.

I voted this morning an hour after the polls opened and it wasn't busy yet.

[Edward64]

Eating crow now.

BTW congrats to those that called it. If you care to tell us, let us know how you knew?

[Ksyrup]

I'm generally pessimistic and think the worst of people as a rule.

My HS yearbook quote was "Cheer up, the worst is yet to come." I haven't deviated much from that in the past 35 years.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'm generally pessimistic and think the worst of people as a rule.

My HS yearbook quote was "Cheer up, the worst is yet to come." I haven't deviated much from that in the past 35 years.

I'm generally the glass is half-full guy.

Have to read up more on optimists vs pessimists and why it is.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'm generally pessimistic and think the worst of people as a rule.

My HS yearbook quote was "Cheer up, the worst is yet to come." I haven't deviated much from that in the past 35 years.

That was me, but I stupidly let 2008 change my mind.

[Ksyrup]

To top it all off, I didn't even win Mega Millions last night, either.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Eating crow now.

BTW congrats to those that called it. If you care to tell us, let us know how you knew?

Pessimism. The first election I was was eligible to vote where the U.S. President was on the ballot was in 2004. I was very optimistic that John Kerry would triumphantly beat George W. Bush.

I was also cautiously hopeful Hillary would beat Trump in 2016 and that didn't happen. It was pretty clear to me than he was a very bad guy and I didn't think that much had changed since then.

I think living my entire life so far in Indiana and Kentucky so far might have something to do with it too. The people I vote for often lose since I'm a straight ticket Democrat.

I also voted in this poll before I saw the Iowa Selzer poll which made me go from being pessimistic about the election to being hopeful about it.

[Edward64]

Hah, 2 so far was because they were, by nature, pessimists.

I guess that is a teachable moment. Expect the worse so you won't be as disappointed!

[Ksyrup]

It's how I've got this far in my life.

Not as far as I could have gone, but far enough to be pretty happy about where I am.

[Radii]

I would have voted Trump until the Selzer poll in Iowa over the weekend. I allowed myself to buy into that and thought it was a sign for Harris. Until then I fully expected and was prepared for a Trump win.

[Swaggs]

I'll own it. I thought she'd win due to all the post-Dobbs election results initially, then got pessimistic about it, and then bought into hearing about the superiority of the Dems GOTV (door knocking, phone banking) in swing states and the Selzer poll. I'm not overly surprised and feel like I went through the stages of grief by the time I got to work this morning. I do hope that the House goes to the Dems, so there are some checks in place, but I'm guessing that is unlikely given the nature of the reported votes throughout the country.

[RainMaker]

I went back and forth. Thought Biden would get clobbered. Then thought Harris had a good chance when she was anointed and built up some enthusiasm with the base. Swung back to Trump when she made her hard shift to the right and saw her poll numbers crater as a result. Up till about a week ago I just thought she had burned her base so hard she had no chance.

Then finally figured that the Dobbs effect would be enough to make up for her terrible campaign. That enough people would hold their nose because of abortion. Maybe it would have been a bigger blowout without Dobbs but the base just didn't bother to show up to support her. Probably should have stuck to my guns on that.

[Critch]

Originally Posted by Edward64

BTW congrats to those that called it. If you care to tell us, let us know how you knew?

Another for pessimism, there just seemed to be less excitement about Harris and/or keeping Trump out. And what sealed it was I looked at the betting odds and bookies dont get things wrong.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Eating crow now.

BTW congrats to those that called it. If you care to tell us, let us know how you knew?

Canadian here... as an outsider, my view is that your country is incredibly fractured, with a highly deplorable component to it. So maybe some pessimism as well.

But ultimately, it really came down to how I felt about Pennsylvania. From the polls, it seemed like Trump had Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. I did have Harris winning Michigan and Wisconsin. When I looked at Pennsylvania though, it just kind of felt like Trump. But even if I was wrong on that, I just felt Trump had a better shot at stealing Michigan or Wisconsin than Harris stealing, for example Nevada or Georgia.

Edit: And to add to that slightly, while I didn't think that the silent Trumpers would be as prevalent as they were in 2016 in terms of the polls, I figured there was still a significant enough component of people who would vote for Trump at the end of the day but who were probably not wanting to admit in polls that they were voting for an overtly and demonstrably racist, serial sexual abuser, convicted felon. So anywhere a poll was close, I gave Trump the benefit of the doubt.