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Old 06-03-2020, 02:04 PM   #24301
Atocep
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Swartz View Post
Historically, we're at the point where polls start mattering roughly (actually about a month ago IIRC). But more important is the fact that every.single.election since '16 hasn't gone Trump's way. That's pre-pandemic, pre-riots. He could win, and we could also get visited by Martians today. Both are about the same likelihood.

Agree

The only reason people are still giving Trump and chance is he's the incumbent and they expect him to try to steal the election somehow. If you look at mid-terms, special elections, and current polling for both the Presidency and generic congress (which is a good measure of current party support) the GOP and Trump really have nothing going for them at this point.

As I've mentioned in this thread, there's a reason McConnell and Graham are pressuring judges to retire. It's not because they expect Trump to win.
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Old 06-03-2020, 02:05 PM   #24302
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I am definitely not counting my chickens yet, but I am hopeful these polls are right. I am hoping for a Godzilla-breathes-fire-down-Trump's-throat type of victory.
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Old 06-03-2020, 02:06 PM   #24303
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I'll believe it when I see it and I'll make no assumptions until it's over.
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Old 06-03-2020, 02:08 PM   #24304
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And we may well be looking at a multiple days of waiting while the paper ballots are counted delay in determining a winner. But I sure hope not.
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Old 06-03-2020, 02:10 PM   #24305
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Originally Posted by Atocep View Post
As I've mentioned in this thread, there's a reason McConnell and Graham are pressuring judges to retire. It's not because they expect Trump to win.

It's also why the GOP isn't going to agree to another bill to prop up the economy. They want to get ahead of tanking it and blaming Biden. They don't think that Trump has enough of a chance that it is worth keeping things afloat to increase his chances of reelection.

And Trump is too stupid to realize that. And, even if someone came in with a picture book to explain it to him, he lacks the ability to get the GOP members in Congress to do what he wants.
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Old 06-03-2020, 02:10 PM   #24306
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dola:

All that said, I won't believe he is gone until he is gone.
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Old 06-03-2020, 02:19 PM   #24307
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It's also why the GOP isn't going to agree to another bill to prop up the economy. They want to get ahead of tanking it and blaming Biden. They don't think that Trump has enough of a chance that it is worth keeping things afloat to increase his chances of reelection.

And Trump is too stupid to realize that. And, even if someone came in with a picture book to explain it to him, he lacks the ability to get the GOP members in Congress to do what he wants.

I'm fairly certain if you offered McConnell and Graham control of Senate majority in November and Trump voted out of office they'd take it without hesitation. I think the GOP core understands that the best thing for the health of their party is for Trump to be a 1 term President and Biden is the perfect follow up as a moderate that's committed to not even running for a 2nd term.

The problem is they fear losing Senate and being pulled down with him. They need to walk a fine line between letting Trump sink enough to to lose, but not take the rest of the party with him because, given the choice, they'll take 4 more years of Trump over complete loss of power.

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Old 06-03-2020, 05:20 PM   #24308
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Mattis said he'd speak when the time was right.

It's right, and did he ever.

"In Union There Is Strength

I have watched this week’s unfolding events, angry and appalled. The words “Equal Justice Under Law” are carved in the pediment of the United States Supreme Court. This is precisely what protesters are rightly demanding. It is a wholesome and unifying demand—one that all of us should be able to get behind. We must not be distracted by a small number of lawbreakers. The protests are defined by tens of thousands of people of conscience who are insisting that we live up to our values—our values as people and our values as a nation.

When I joined the military, some 50 years ago, I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution. Never did I dream that troops taking that same oath would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens—much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief, with military leadership standing alongside.

We must reject any thinking of our cities as a “battlespace” that our uniformed military is called upon to “dominate.” At home, we should use our military only when requested to do so, on very rare occasions, by state governors. Militarizing our response, as we witnessed in Washington, D.C., sets up a conflict—a false conflict—between the military and civilian society. It erodes the moral ground that ensures a trusted bond between men and women in uniform and the society they are sworn to protect, and of which they themselves are a part. Keeping public order rests with civilian state and local leaders who best understand their communities and are answerable to them.

James Madison wrote in Federalist 14 that “America united with a handful of troops, or without a single soldier, exhibits a more forbidding posture to foreign ambition than America disunited, with a hundred thousand veterans ready for combat.” We do not need to militarize our response to protests. We need to unite around a common purpose. And it starts by guaranteeing that all of us are equal before the law.

Instructions given by the military departments to our troops before the Normandy invasion reminded soldiers that “The Nazi slogan for destroying us…was ‘Divide and Conquer.’ Our American answer is ‘In Union there is Strength.’” We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis—confident that we are better than our politics.

Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.

We can come through this trying time stronger, and with a renewed sense of purpose and respect for one another. The pandemic has shown us that it is not only our troops who are willing to offer the ultimate sacrifice for the safety of the community. Americans in hospitals, grocery stores, post offices, and elsewhere have put their lives on the line in order to serve their fellow citizens and their country. We know that we are better than the abuse of executive authority that we witnessed in Lafayette Park. We must reject and hold accountable those in office who would make a mockery of our Constitution. At the same time, we must remember Lincoln’s “better angels,” and listen to them, as we work to unite.

Only by adopting a new path—which means, in truth, returning to the original path of our founding ideals—will we again be a country admired and respected at home and abroad.


James Mattis"
"
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Old 06-03-2020, 05:21 PM   #24309
Atocep
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Holy shit
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Old 06-03-2020, 05:22 PM   #24310
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Holy crap, what a statement!
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Old 06-03-2020, 05:24 PM   #24311
Ben E Lou
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Originally Posted by Atocep View Post
Holy shit
I rarely cuss, but with the wife and kids out of town at the beach, those were my exact words, out loud, in the empty house.
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Old 06-03-2020, 05:40 PM   #24312
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I rarely cuss, but with the wife and kids out of town at the beach, those were my exact words, out loud, in the empty house.

I believe things like this do chip away at his base. I'd be surprised if it noticeably moved the needle, but every little bit helps and this is just one more thing that makes it more difficult to defend his actions. A tipping point for Trump would potentially be if George W were to endorse Biden. At the very least it'd be interesting to see how the current GOP establishment would try to reconcile it.
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Old 06-03-2020, 05:42 PM   #24313
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I like how i read his Wikipedia page (hey, ignorant german here ) and find sth that works well against the backdrop of the video of those cops emptying protesters water bottles out of malice:

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In a 2003 PBS interview, Mattis recalled how his Marines followed advice from his chaplain on gaining the support of Iraqi citizens: "On the suggestion of my Catholic chaplain the Marines would take chilled drinking water in bottles and walk out amongst the protesters and hand it out. It is just hard to throw a rock at somebody who has given you a cold drink of water and it's 120 degrees outside."

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Old 06-03-2020, 05:54 PM   #24314
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It's scathing to be sure but will never get to any of his followers, and won't matter if it does. I just went to Fox News website, you know, the ones who claim to be fair and balanced. Not on word of it.

Ironically enough Trump will likely tweet about it which may bring some eyeballs to it, but he is too stupid to comprehend it and lacks the attention span to even read it.
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Old 06-03-2020, 05:56 PM   #24315
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The more who speak out against him - especially those who have worked with him - the easier it becomes to peel people off.
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Old 06-03-2020, 05:57 PM   #24316
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It's about fucking time.
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Old 06-03-2020, 06:02 PM   #24317
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Originally Posted by Atocep View Post
I believe things like this do chip away at his base. I'd be surprised if it noticeably moved the needle, but every little bit helps and this is just one more thing that makes it more difficult to defend his actions. A tipping point for Trump would potentially be if George W were to endorse Biden. At the very least it'd be interesting to see how the current GOP establishment would try to reconcile it.
It’s not so much his base as the conservatives on the margin. I was third-party all the way in 2016, but a significant number of my close long-time friends were Trump nose-holders who still can’t stand Trump, but may vote for him. Hearing a respected conservative general publish some of the thoughts that they already had will no doubt move the needle a bit more. I doubt any of them will vote for Biden, but I could easily see more conservatives refusing to vote for Trump.
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Old 06-03-2020, 06:03 PM   #24318
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This won't affect his 38-42% base. It may help with some undecided, independents.

I wonder if the ulterior motive is also to remind the Joint Chiefs of their duty to refuse an illegal order or maybe questionable order.
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Old 06-03-2020, 06:05 PM   #24319
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Again, the demographics mean he has to expand his voter base to win. This doesn't help.
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Old 06-03-2020, 06:12 PM   #24320
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Should trump be defeated in November, I do believe that he may go down as one of the 3 worst presidents of all time.
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Old 06-03-2020, 06:15 PM   #24321
Ben E Lou
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Just got this text from a friend. He’s not a serious studied Christian like those mentioned in my last post, but is a conservative former marine officer who has become increasingly hostile to Trumpism.

Quote:
There is a tenant of maneuver warfare, the doctrine of our Marine Corps and one which Gen Mattis has mastered, that prioritizes the MASSING of combat power at the decisive time and place where it will have the greatest effect on the enemy. In this way smaller forces can quickly divide and route much larger forces. THAT is what he's doing. Love this
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Old 06-03-2020, 06:33 PM   #24322
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You can always assume that if Trump is accusing someone else of doing it then he's tried to do it himself.

Donald Trump appears to have committed felony voter fraud by registering under the wrong address in Florida.

and I know this initially looks like something that's incredibly nit-picky and no big deal but Florida has actually cracked down hard on others for doing the exact same thing:

Quote:
Under Florida law, providing false information on a voter registration form is a third-degree felony, punishable by five years in prison and a $5,000 fine. As the Washington Post notes, the state has previously targeted individuals for registering under the wrong address. In 2018, Deltona City Manager Jane Shang faced charges for listing City Hall as her residence to avoid disclosure of her home address. She ultimately avoided prison through a deferred prosecution agreement that included a hefty fine and community service. In 1993, a restaurateur was charged with voter fraud and jailed for registering under the wrong address.
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Old 06-03-2020, 06:41 PM   #24323
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I doubt any of them will vote for Biden, but I could easily see more conservatives refusing to vote for Trump.

Yeah, while I don't see any situation that causes much if any of Trump's base turning away from him to vote for somebody else I do think it's possible that vocal criticism from conservative corners could cause significant numbers of marginal Trump supporters get exhausted enough to simply not vote.
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Old 06-03-2020, 06:58 PM   #24324
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A major difference between this cycle and 2016 by the way that doesn't get enough play is the historically very high amount of late-breaking undecided vote last time around. I believe the undecided vote a month before the '16 election was nearly double what is now (less than 8%). The on-the-fence voters breaking for Trump can't save him when there aren't nearly as many of them.
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:02 PM   #24325
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And I'm pretty sure that generally undecideds break for the challenger rather than the incumbent.
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:08 PM   #24326
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This seems both really good and really bad. Good that Milley states these things, but bad that he felt the need to.
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:14 PM   #24327
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Saw that the sportsbooks have actually flipped over to favoring Biden (or any Dem nominee) for the first time FWIW.
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:47 PM   #24328
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These letters combined with the Esper remarks this morning really make me wonder what Trump has been saying and why the DoD is so nervous.
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:49 PM   #24329
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And this from the Commandant of the Marine Corps.

Quote:
ARLINGTON, Va. --
Marines and Sailors, last summer, in my planning guidance, I stated there is no place in our Corps for racists – whether their intolerance and prejudice be direct or indirect, intentional or unintentional. As a continuation of that declaration, in April, I addressed the removal of the Confederate battle flag from our bases, and explained my views behind that decision. I wrote, “Anything that divides us, anything that threatens team cohesion, must be addressed head-on.”

Current events are a stark reminder that it is not enough for us to remove symbols that cause division – rather, we also must strive to eliminate division itself. The trust Marines place in one another on a daily basis demands this. Only as a unified force, free from discrimination, racial inequality, and prejudice can we fully demonstrate our core values, and serve as the elite warfighting organization America requires and expects us to be.

To this end, Sergeant Major Black and I encourage commanders and leaders at all levels to have a conversation with their Marines and Sailors, and ask that in doing so, all actively listen. By listening, we learn, by learning, we change. The path to a more just and equal Marine Corps begins with these conversations.
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:55 PM   #24330
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This seems both really good and really bad. Good that Milley states these things, but bad that he felt the need to.

He has a base as well. That base would want to hear his official position on the military topic of the day.
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:56 PM   #24331
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We also received emails from the Secretary of the Army and Army Chief of staff today that were along the same lines.
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:58 PM   #24332
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These letters combined with the Esper remarks this morning really make me wonder what Trump has been saying and why the DoD is so nervous.

Trump reportedly threw out the idea of putting tanks in the streets.
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Old 06-03-2020, 08:01 PM   #24333
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These letters combined with the Esper remarks this morning really make me wonder what Trump has been saying and why the DoD is so nervous.

Are you saying you think trump is advocating for more force? Shootings? Drone strikes? etc...?
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Old 06-03-2020, 08:27 PM   #24334
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Tom Cotton is really trying to position himself as the torch bearer for Trump 2024.
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Old 06-03-2020, 08:32 PM   #24335
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Are you saying you think trump is advocating for more force? Shootings? Drone strikes? etc...?

I have no idea, but something provoked the Sec of Defense, the CJSC, the ranking officer of the National Guard, the Commandant of the Marines, and Mattis to all issue unprecedented statements about the President and the armed forces respecting the ideas and laws of the U.S.
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Old 06-03-2020, 08:55 PM   #24336
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I have no idea, but something provoked the Sec of Defense, the CJSC, the ranking officer of the National Guard, the Commandant of the Marines, and Mattis to all issue unprecedented statements about the President and the armed forces respecting the ideas and laws of the U.S.
My neighbor’s comment about Mattis and strategy wasn’t mere spitballing about the guy. He was a senior officer in the Corps, serving under Mattis’s command. After posting that, I walked the dog and ran into him. We talked for 20-30 minutes on the street. At one point I made a comment about how Trump was going to go ballistic. My friend responded with “oh, I’m certain Mattis knew exactly what he was doing with regard to that as well. Trump can’t play 4D chess, but Mattis can. He has a plan.”
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Old 06-03-2020, 09:03 PM   #24337
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At some point that Bolton book will also get cleared and added to the chorus....may have shot themselves in the foot by postponing that.
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Old 06-03-2020, 09:23 PM   #24338
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This has to be Trumps worst nightmare. 2 emergencies to test his leadership. And he is failing miserably. He thinks tweets and photo ops will pull him through. Weak leadership is a bad deal at this point.
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Old 06-03-2020, 09:56 PM   #24339
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It’s not so much his base as the conservatives on the margin. I was third-party all the way in 2016, but a significant number of my close long-time friends were Trump nose-holders who still can’t stand Trump, but may vote for him. Hearing a respected conservative general publish some of the thoughts that they already had will no doubt move the needle a bit more. I doubt any of them will vote for Biden, but I could easily see more conservatives refusing to vote for Trump.

Just judging by a quick trip through some of the Conservative spots on reddit this really seems to have had a more of an impact that I expected. Not necessarily a tsunami or anything, but it definitely has some conservatives reevaluating Trump.

None seem to be ready to vote for Biden, but they're wishing there was some republican option other than Trump.
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Old 06-03-2020, 10:00 PM   #24340
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Anderson Cooper: “Given his bone spurs, it must have been very painful to have been rushed down to his bunker.”
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Old 06-03-2020, 10:52 PM   #24341
Atocep
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Trump takes credit for the Mad Dog nickname.

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Old 06-03-2020, 10:55 PM   #24342
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Trump takes credit for the Mad Dog nickname.


....and Mattis hated it.
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Old 06-03-2020, 11:14 PM   #24343
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I am definitely not counting my chickens yet, but I am hopeful these polls are right. I am hoping for a Godzilla-breathes-fire-down-Trump's-throat type of victory.

Him turning full fascist seems to be the response to internal polls. He has to know he is in deep trouble and we are going to see some scary stuff as he continues to head toward a large defeat.
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Old 06-03-2020, 11:17 PM   #24344
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I believe things like this do chip away at his base. I'd be surprised if it noticeably moved the needle, but every little bit helps and this is just one more thing that makes it more difficult to defend his actions. A tipping point for Trump would potentially be if George W were to endorse Biden. At the very least it'd be interesting to see how the current GOP establishment would try to reconcile it.

I don't think his base is going anywhere. Theh have lifted him up to cult status. They never cared about the military either.

What this may do is motivate independents and people in the suburbs. His base hasn't moved and he is pushing hard right to appease their authoritarian leanings.
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Old 06-04-2020, 07:16 AM   #24345
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Timing-wise this all may be happening too early considering how far November is. If the election were Tuesday he would lose in a landslide.
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Old 06-04-2020, 07:38 AM   #24346
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Originally Posted by Flasch186 View Post
Timing-wise this all may be happening too early considering how far November is. If the election were Tuesday he would lose in a landslide.

And, in the back of my mind (in a small part but it's still there and also at odds with my thought of how often Trump can/will play a chess vs checkers), I've wondered if this is a dress rehearsal for November

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Old 06-04-2020, 07:42 AM   #24347
tarcone
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November is a long ways away. There could be a suspension of the election due to another outbreak of something.

Do not put it past Trump to create something that allows him to stay in power.
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Old 06-04-2020, 08:03 AM   #24348
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Old 06-04-2020, 08:03 AM   #24349
Edward64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flasch186 View Post
Timing-wise this all may be happening too early considering how far November is. If the election were Tuesday he would lose in a landslide.

I agree with this and the economy is rebounding so that's always a key factor. And there could always be a Hillary-like Oct surprise.
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Old 06-04-2020, 09:20 AM   #24350
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Originally Posted by tarcone View Post
November is a long ways away. There could be a suspension of the election due to another outbreak of something.

Do not put it past Trump to create something that allows him to stay in power.

It would not shock me at all, but how does the circumvent the law requiring a new President to be in place on January 21st of next year. I don't see any path to getting around that and the absolute chaos it would cause even trying.

I will have to look for the exact specifics, but there is a plan of succession in place to transfer power if there is an issue with having the election.
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