The Official 2017-18 NBA Regular Season Thread

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Kevin Pelton's weekly mailbag - does LeBron James make his teammates better?

Can anyone tell me when Scottie Pippen had his two best seasons from a points per game, rebounds per game and steals per game standpoint?

Oh yeah, his best season was 93-94 while his second best season was 94-95.

Horace Grant's best season from a PPG perspective, also 93-94.

I guess the only conclusion is that Michael Jordan didn't make his teammates better.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

That's what makes this must see TV.

On paper, Golden State and Houston would seem to just be too talented to lose.

But would you really bet your house on it not being Cleveland? Or on LeBron not averaging a 40 pt. triple double in the Finals?

If LeBron had gotten 3 more rebounds over two games, he’d be averaging a 40 pt triple double. And the Cavs are still down 0-2.

[miami_fan]

https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/201...ef-watch-party

This will go well.

[Vince, Pt. II]

That...that is a terrible idea.

[kingfc22]

Lue should get crushed for playing Hood behind Korver and others in games 1-2.

[Arles]

I’m aggravated the Warriors + KD ring chasing + 70% of the east tanking has robbed me of an enjoyable finals the past two years.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Arles

I’m aggravated the Warriors + KD ring chasing + 70% of the east tanking has robbed me of an enjoyable finals the past two years.

How does the east tanking matter if I believed that was the case? Who were we expecting to come out of it to challenge the Warriors?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Lue should get crushed for playing Hood behind Korver and others in games 1-2.

It's obvious Ty Lue isn't a good coach & can't craft a team identity that puts solid role players like Hood, Nance, Clarkson (maybe that's a stretch), Thompson into defined roles, but I'm not going to excoriate him for playing Kyle Korver over Rodney Hood. Hood is a mental midget who has turtled every previous playoff series.

Originally Posted by Galaril

How does the east tanking matter if I believed that was the case? Who were we expecting to come out of it to challenge the Warriors?

Agreed - who actually tanked in the East? The Hawks, Bulls, & 2013 Nets GM? The one team that most egregiously tanked recently (76ers) was one people thought might come out of the East until they played the Celtics.

[Groundhog]

The team I support is playing in the Finals and I won't watch any game outside of game 1, unless the Cavs somehow peel off 3 straight wins.

I really hope KD signs elsewhere this offseason, too.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Galaril

How does the east tanking matter if I believed that was the case? Who were we expecting to come out of it to challenge the Warriors?

If there isn't much competition, there's no real need for the top teams in the conference to try and get better. Outside of Boston and maybe Philly (who's big move was signing Reddick), no one in the east really made moves to get better. All the top 4 teams (Cleveland, Boston, Toronto, Philly) knew they were easily in the playoffs and didn't really need to do a ton to have a good shot at the finals. The Celtics are really the only team in the conference that tried to get better.

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Agreed - who actually tanked in the East? The Hawks, Bulls, & 2013 Nets GM? The one team that most egregiously tanked recently (76ers) was one people thought might come out of the East until they played the Celtics.

Atlanta, Orlando, Chicago, Brooklyn, New York and Charlotte made no effort to win. Indiana tried to tank by trading George but the east is so bad they still won 48 games. Detroit was bad (but didn't really try to tank, just on incompetence). Out of the 15 teams, 5 actually tried to win (top 4 and the Bucks). The Heat and Wizards stood pat, but made the playoffs because they were in the East.

To put it in perspective, the Nuggets missed the playoffs in the West and would have finished 6th in the East. What makes it even more egregious is these Eastern teams are playing 52/82 games against a worse conference and still can barely get 5 teams over 45 wins. Imagine if Utah or Portland got to play 50/82 against the East - they'd have 55-60 wins.

In the end, this whole Durant joining a 73-win team has just sapped the will to win from most teams in the NBA. Outside of Houston and Boston, no one is really trying to compete with them. Atleast in the West, teams like New Orleans, Utah, Minnesota, Portland and Denver have to try to improve themselves or risk missing out on the playoffs. In the east, you can try to tank (Indiana) and still get the 5 seed.

[miami_fan]

Per Woj, Colangelo is going “resign” and Brett Brown is going to run things on an interim basis. Did Brown pull a Budenholzer?

[Arles]

If I'm Philly, I do what I can to get David Griffin and put on a full court press for Lebron.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Arles

In the east, you can try to tank (Indiana) and still get the 5 seed.

I think you are selling Indiana short. They got rid of a disgruntled player near the end of his contract and picked up a couple of young, hungry guys. It wasn't a tank move. It was a way to avoid letting George walk away in free agency and get something to build on.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Arles

The Celtics are really the only team in the conference that tried to get better.

I'd say the Cavs made some rather notable moves in order to "try to get better".

To put it in perspective, the Nuggets missed the playoffs in the West and would have finished 6th in the East.

And just two years ago, 6/7/8 in the west all had worse records than the #8 in the east ... while playing in a conference that was severely top heavy but also had some noticeable bottom feeders.

Cycles happen.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Per Woj, Colangelo is going “resign” and Brett Brown is going to run things on an interim basis. Did Brown pull a Budenholzer?

Best outcome Philly could have hoped for if they can get the replacement right. Rehiring Hinkie would be the right thing to do, but I don't think they have the balls to do it.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Arles

If I'm Philly, I do what I can to get David Griffin and put on a full court press for Lebron.

The idea that the Cavs could lose Kyrie, Lebron and David Griffin to their nearest rivals (Sorry, Toronto) within a year is amazing.

[JPhillips]

Would LeBron work with Simmons and Fultz and a team of few shooters?

[Dantooine98]

I'm not a lebron fan, but I feel bad for him. the Celtics were wise enough to lose game 7. getting sweep in the finals will forever be in the record books.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'd say the Cavs made some rather notable moves in order to "try to get better".

Yeah, but they were desperation lateral moves. Their hope was just to change the culture and be a threat again. But, there's no way you can argue that trading Kyrie and Frye for George Hill, Clarkson, Nance and Hood made them better.

And just two years ago, 6/7/8 in the west all had worse records than the #8 in the east ... while playing in a conference that was severely top heavy but also had some noticeable bottom feeders.

Cycles happen.

17-18: 9th in west = 6th in East
16-17: 9th in west = 10th in East
15-16: 9th in west = 10th in East
14-15: 9th in west = 6th in East
13-14: 9th in west = 5th in East
12-13: 9th in west = 7th in East
11-12: 9th in west = 9th in East
10-11: 9th in west = 6th in East
09-10: 9th in west = 8th in East
08-09: 9th in west = 5th in East
07-08: 9th in west = 4th in East
06-07: 9th in west = 8th in East
05-06: 9th in west = 6th in East (tie)
04-05: 9th in west = 6th in East (tie)
03-04: 9th in west = 4th in East (tie)

So, in 12 of the last 15 years, the 9th place team in the West would have been a playoff team in the East (as high as a 4 seed). That also doesn't account for the West having a much higher win total in their top 7-8 - which makes it harder to win when playing 52/82 against the West. Just look at the 4-8 eastern teams against the west vs east this year: Cleveland (67% E, 50% W), Indiana (62%, 53%), Miami (60%, 43%), Milwaukee (52%, 56%), Washington (54%, 50%). Then look at teams like OKC (67% E, 54% W), New Orleans (70%, 52%), SA (60%, 55%), Denver (60%, 54%) and Clippers (60%, 46%). Pretty much the entire top 10 of the West won 60% of their games against the East. Even the Lakers, who were a bad team against the West (36%), won 53% of their games against the East. It's just a lot harder to be a playoff team in the West - and it has been for 15 years.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Dantooine98

I'm not a lebron fan, but I feel bad for him. the Celtics were wise enough to lose game 7. getting sweep in the finals will forever be in the record books.

I'm not a LeBron fan either (but I do think he is arguably GOAT).

Go Warriors, dump'em, embarrass them, kick'em down a couple notches.

[bronconick]

You could have called time of death after 30ish minutes of tonight

[JonInMiddleGA]

It's a game where, in this era, you pretty much need 3 high end players, 4 tops.
If the other guy has those and you don't ... you're screwed.

Right now, there's one team that has that. And I'm not sure the change won't have to come from that group slipping back toward the pack with time, which eventually wounds us all.

[Ragone]

I think lebron opted out of his contract in the third quarter

[korme]

Now the interesting part begins.

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

It's a game where, in this era, you pretty much need 3 high end players, 4 tops.
If the other guy has those and you don't ... you're screwed.

Right now, there's one team that has that. And I'm not sure the change won't have to come from that group slipping back toward the pack with time, which eventually wounds us all.

I think it’s been the case for awhile. The “golden age” of basketball is basically two teams- lakers/Celtics- with 4 high end players each.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by korme

Now the interesting part begins.

Eh, is it even interesting any more? If KD returns to Golden State, it doesn't even matter where LeBron ends up other than to see if his Finals streak continues.

[albionmoonlight]

KD's legacy will be interesting as time goes on.

Right now, the "ring chaser" thing is on the front of our minds. But as time goes on, I think that that recedes and his increasingly large collection of championships and MVPs and Finals MVPs will start to look better with time.

[EagleFan]

Obviously I would like to see LBJ go to Philly but if not I would LOVE to see him go to OKC and win a championship. The ultimate in your face move to Durant.

I heard that Durant has an opt out? If so I think there needs to be a campaign to flood his social media with taunts that he will really only prove himself if he goes elsewhere to win something instead of taking the easy way out.

[stevew]

Golden State isn't really sustainable for more than 2 or so more years. Klay will need a monster raise after 2019. He'll be up around 35m/season. Draymond and Iggy expire after 2020. Durant will go up to around 35million or so next year. The amount of tax they'll pay on their top 5 salaries alone is pretty staggering. I mean they might just do it, but in reality they'll have to piece out Draymond and Iggy after next season and hope to get 75% of their production for 20% of the money.

[larrymcg421]

I actually love all of this because it makes a mockery of the "counting rings" nonsense. I mean, if individual players are ultimately going to be judged on team success, then why not just join a massive superteam?

[stevew]

Can't decide who I want the Cavs to take as the new face of the franchise after LeBron bolts. I'm hoping that Young or Porter drop to #8 and that seems likely. Most of the Cavs' contracts can be dumped after next season. They owe the Hawks a top 10 protected #1. This team will be pretty bad next season.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by stevew

Golden State isn't really sustainable for more than 2 or so more years. Klay will need a monster raise after 2019. He'll be up around 35m/season. Draymond and Iggy expire after 2020. Durant will go up to around 35million or so next year. The amount of tax they'll pay on their top 5 salaries alone is pretty staggering. I mean they might just do it, but in reality they'll have to piece out Draymond and Iggy after next season and hope to get 75% of their production for 20% of the money.

It's obviously just hearsay until it actually happens, but Klay has repeatedly said it's dumb to think he would leave, and that he makes plenty of money as it is.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

It's obviously just hearsay until it actually happens, but Klay has repeatedly said it's dumb to think he would leave, and that he makes plenty of money as it is.

Klay could get something like 4/140 in free agency if a team had the means to sign him. Even if he signs with the Warriors for 30million a season, that's a 50%+ raise over his current salary and probably the extra 10m in salary costs them 25-35million in luxury tax penalties.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Eh, is it even interesting any more? If KD returns to Golden State, it doesn't even matter where LeBron ends up other than to see if his Finals streak continues.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Right now, there's one team that has that. And I'm not sure the change won't have to come from that group slipping back toward the pack with time, which eventually wounds us all.

The nature of basketball (only five guys on the court at a time, relatively minor injury risk, players able to play ~40 of 48 minutes a game, 7 game series in the playoffs) means that stars will have an outsized impact on who wins the championship. The only things comparable might be starting pitchers (who still can only play ~20% of the games) and quarterbacks. And now with NBA stars making the rational decisions to team up with each other, you end up with 3-4 superduper teams and everyone else.

That's not a totally bad thing when you reach the final four. Houston-Golden State was rocking until Paul got hurt. And LeBron vs. any super team is pretty cool.

But it does make a lot of the NBA chatter seem kind of pointless. When Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe talk for 10 minutes about what the Hornets or the Grizzlies or the Pacers should do, there's a sense of what does it matter. It's totally good in-depth analysis, but it is not having any effect beyond the first round of the playoffs.

I'm not sure what, if anything, the NBA can or should do about this because (as noted above) it seems inherent to the sport.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by stevew

Klay could get something like 4/140 in free agency if a team had the means to sign him. Even if he signs with the Warriors for 30million a season, that's a 50%+ raise over his current salary and probably the extra 10m in salary costs them 25-35million in luxury tax penalties.

The way the Luxury Tax works, the Warriors won't be in super trouble with it until the season after next (2020-2021); this season was the first year they actually hit the tax. Even though they won't get into the brepeater tax for another year, it's going to have to get mighty creative with all the big names needing new deals: Draymond, Klay, and KD.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

The way the Luxury Tax works, the Warriors won't be in super trouble with it until the season after next (2020-2021); this season was the first year they actually hit the tax. Even though they won't get into the brepeater tax for another year, it's going to have to get mighty creative with all the big names needing new deals: Draymond, Klay, and KD.

It's easy to say b/c it isn't my money. But how often do you have a chance to have a team this historic and keep it together? I'd just pay everyone, luxury tax be dammed.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I actually love all of this because it makes a mockery of the "counting rings" nonsense. I mean, if individual players are ultimately going to be judged on team success, then why not just join a massive superteam?

I mean, we should just rotate stars to Golden State so all the best players can get rings. We'll move Anthony Davis this year, Giannis next year and Porzingis the following year. Eventually, everyone will have their title and can just worry about money.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I'm not sure what, if anything, the NBA can or should do about this because (as noted above) it seems inherent to the sport.

Hard cap a little (say $20 mil) over the tax limit and no max salary. I'd say that would fix it....

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

It's easy to say b/c it isn't my money. But how often do you have a chance to have a team this historic and keep it together? I'd just pay everyone, luxury tax be dammed.

I am 100% in this line. And they have a LOT of money. And they're essentially printing money and are supposed to be in a new stadium in a year+.

[stevew]

The regular tax is something like 3.5* after you're 20M over. I know that line increases over time but they can print money and still pay something like 4.5million for each roster filler guy after they've paid their top 5-6 salaries. Just going to be really hard to do IMO

[bhlloy]

Not technically the NBA but this is awesome: Zach Lowe on The Basketball Tournament and NBA crunch time

Intentional fouling is the one of the dumbest things in any pro sport and a major reason I've never really got into the NBA, so anything that's a solution to that gets a huge vote of confidence from me. No idea if 7 points is the right number, but the concept is intriguing.

[stevew]

Yeah, I'm in already. I dunno about 7 points. I think maybe just starting the 4th quarter with a goal of 25 points might be exciting.


They should be trying stuff like this in the G League.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by stevew

Yeah, I'm in already. I dunno about 7 points. I think maybe just starting the 4th quarter with a goal of 25 points might be exciting.


They should be trying stuff like this in the G League.

Definitely agree re: G League. IMO they should be trialing at least one wacky rule change each year in the G League. From a spectator point of view I think the 7 point (or whatever would make more sense in an NBA setting) thing would be an exciting spectacle, but it would feel like a gimmick to me... Kinda like 20/20 cricket does, despite it being unarguably more entertaining. Maybe I'm too much of a purist.

It would make me more likely to catch G League games though if they did trial it.

[Groundhog]

dola

I'm still drafting Doncic at #1.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

dola

I'm still drafting Doncic at #1.

Agreed.

[stevew]

Puma signed Bagley, Ayton and someone else and named Jay Z as a creative director of the line. Should be great to see a new player.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

dola

I'm still drafting Doncic at #1.

What's weird to me is there is really no legitimate dissent on any main site about Doncic. The Ringer, ESPN, SI, Sporting News, Bleacher Report, SB Nation, etc. It's just all how great this guy is. I think he's a very good prospect, but there are a lot of red flags to me:
1. He's shot 27% from 3 in 2018. All I hear about is what a great shooter he is. That just hasn't been the case. For the season, he shot 30.8% from 3.
2. Everyone keeps comparing him to Harden, but he just doesn't have close to Harden's first step. Now, the argument is his athleticism will get better with training, but he is really slow compared to the NBA. There's no way he can guard an NBA PG or SG and would probably struggle against most 3s. What's funny is people keep knocking Ayton for his defense and blocking shots. But, what Ayton was great at was being switched onto guards. He did it all year at AZ so he wasn't protecting the rim as much because he could switch:



It's crazy to me that so Ayton has taken such a knock for his defense and foot speed when he runs the floor well and may be better able to guard on the perimeter than Doncic:



3. The one knock I've seen on Doncic is his maturity. Here's the an excerpt from the one somewhat negative scouting report I found from an NBA scout (and it took some digging):

— Very immature
— Not mentally or emotionally prepared to play in NBA right now​
— Entitled
— Full of himself
— Not liked by teammates

Now, if he had played at Duke and acted the way he did in some games at Real Madrid, people would be up in arms. And for those people saying he's only 19, he's been playing professionally since 13 and has much more experience than any college kid. Yet, he's come off as more immature.

To me, his probable comp is Hedo Turkoglu. The year he was drafted, Turkoglu took his team to the Euroleague final four and averaged 14-5-3. He was a nice playmaker in the NBA, but could never guard at the NBA level and that held him back. Still, that's a very good NBA player. I just don't see Doncic as ever reaching superstar status unless his athleticism and shooting drastically improve. To me, Ayton gives similar production right now but has a much higher ceiling. He was completely misused at Arizona and had to play with another center on the court most of the year. Arizona had very little shooting and teams mostly zoned against them and dropped 2-3 guys on Ayton. You can't play that way in the NBA. Against USC and UCLA in the Pac-12 Tourney, he put up 32-18 and 32-14 because they played him pretty much straight up. I think it's fair to say he isn't a natural shot blocker, but he has the foot speed to switch on the pick and roll and atleast bother perimeter players until he can switch back. Offensively, he is the total package. He can shoot (hit 35% of his 3s), pass, post up and handle the ball. He could be Karl Anthony Towns or Boogie with better perimeter defense/switching ability. That's just a much higher upside than Doncic. I think both will be good players, but the lack of critical eye on Luka by most media sources is a little odd to me. Everyone else (Ayton, Bagley, Trae Young, etc) has been picked apart - but it's been hands off Doncic. Even if anyone tries to criticize him, you get an army of defenders trying to shut them down.

[Groundhog]

I wouldn't compare him to Harden (the best iso scorer in the world), but I think he will be a do-everything ball handler which slots pretty neatly into the current NBA world.

Ayton is an exciting prospect no question. I think it's an easier path to success in today's with elite perimeter players than it is to focus on a KAT or Boogie though. But hey, lots of top prospect bigs this draft so maybe things will start to move the other direction.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Current top story on espn.com says this

Slovenian teen star Luka Doncic has elevated to the forefront of the Atlanta Hawks' internal discussions on the third overall pick in Thursday's NBA Draft, league sources told ESPN.

Doncic's elevation within the Hawks organization reflects a league-wide belief that Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III could go 1-2 to Phoenix and Sacramento to open the draft, league sources said.

When did that Bagley to Sacto at #2 become a thing? Every mock I've seen, as recently as a few hours ago still had Doncic going #2.

[JPhillips]

Somebody, maybe Deadspin, had a Bagley to Sac story a few days ago.